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Noah Hiles: Late season collapses are what the Pirates do best

I was really hoping I wouldn’t have to write this column. While I’ve had my doubts about this Pirates team from the very beginning, there was...

Aug 10 • 5:00 AM EDT • Sports • post-gazette.com

Afghanistan’s Rashid takes six wickets in ODI thrashing of Ireland

Rashid Khan forces collapse as Afghanistan beat Ireland by 92 runs in second game of five-match ODI series.

Aug 8 • 4:06 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com

Jays Survive Near Collapse, Beat Phillies 5-4

That was stressful, especially after yesterday’s nightmare ending. It was close all game, with the Jays just edging out to what seemed like a comfortable lead in the late innings before nearly throwing it all away again in the ninth. In the end they hung on by a fingernail. The deadline additions played a huge […]

Aug 8 • 12:11 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com

Rights group warns Israel's policies are pushing the West Bank healthcare system to collapse

A new report by Physicians for Human Rights Israel warns that Israel’s policies in the occupied West Bank have pushed the territory’s health system to the brink of collapse.

Aug 7 • 9:47 AM EDT • Health • pbs.org

Portland warehouse fire sparks health concerns after asbestos discovery

PORTLAND, Ore. (KOIN) — Days after Portland watched the 116-year-old eight-story warehouse ravaged by fire, concerns grow as dangerous chemicals from the building are being tracked in the air…

Aug 6 • 10:07 PM EDT • Health • koin.com

Rights group warns Israel’s policies are pushing the West Bank healthcare system to collapse

A new report by Physicians for Human Rights Israel warns that Israel’s policies in the occupied West Bank have pushed the territory’s health system to the brink of collapse.

Aug 6 • 5:41 AM EDT • Health • seattletimes.com

Rights group warns Israel's policies are pushing the West Bank healthcare system to collapse

A new report by Physicians for Human Rights Israel warns that Israel’s policies in the occupied West Bank have pushed the territory’s health system to the brink of collapse.

Aug 6 • 5:39 AM EDT • Health • clickondetroit.com

Spirit's collapse hits businesses in Detroit Metro's Evans Terminal

Spirit Airlines' exit from Detroit Metro Airport has left vendors in the Evans Terminal facing empty gates, declining sales, uncertainty.

Aug 4 • 12:02 AM EDT • Business • detroitnews.com

FIFA has scrapped $20 billion World Cup sell-off plan, New York Post reports

FIFA's plan to sell a piece ​of its business empire ‌to outside investors has collapsed following an open ​revolt by soccer ​officials worldwide and a ⁠major rift among top ​FIFA executives, the ​New York Post reported on Friday.

Jul 31 • 5:56 PM EDT • Business • reuters.com

Tencent’s “GTA Rival” Last Sentinel Collapses After Six Years of Development as 80 Layoffs Hit the Studio Behind It

Tencent's "GTA rival" Last Sentinel has collapsed after six years in development, with 80 layoffs hitting LightSpeed LA, the studio behind it

Jul 31 • 3:00 PM EDT • Technology • wccftech.com

The market’s big AI doubts are exposing the riskiest players

The meteoric rise and stunning near-collapse this week of a US hedge fund has sent shockwaves across global markets, becoming a kind of cautionary tale for the AI era.

Jul 31 • 12:24 PM EDT • Business • cnn.com

What the Timberwolves’ new local media rights deal with DAZN means for fans

After the collapse of FanDuel Sports Network, the Timberwolves have a new local broadcast home. Here's what it means for fans.

Jul 30 • 5:35 PM EDT • Sports • nytimes.com

Leopold Aschenbrenner and the Wall Street lesson every genius learns

Leopold Aschenbrenner's hedge fund collapse shows how even brilliant investors can get crushed when markets turn.

Jul 30 • 2:58 PM EDT • Business • businessinsider.com

‘To play God’: Cuba’s healthcare system collapses under US pressure

As the Trump administration tightens US sanctions, Cuba's healthcare sector struggles with fuel and supply shortages.

Jul 30 • 12:34 PM EDT • Health • aljazeera.com

After Hobbes vs Rousseau: Politics must move beyond human nature

Since the great debate between Hobbes and Rousseau, our political theory has been organised around a single question: is human nature essentially good or essentially corrupt? Graham Harman, the philosopher behind object-oriented ontology, argues that this is simply the wrong question to be asking. The real forces governing our collective fate - climate change, artificial intelligence, geography, and pandemics - are non-human; therefore, questions about human nature are not the central ones. Instead, Harman proposes a politics reorganised around our relationship to non-human objects and environments, in which quasi-government institutions incentivise and deter actions with the aim of extending the survival of the human race. “It is easier to imagine the end of the world than the end of capitalism.” This has become one of the most popular phrases among twenty-first-century intellectuals. Often misattributed to Fredric Jameson, it has been warmly embraced by such influential authors as Slavoj Žižek and the tragically departed Mark Fisher, and has fueled the notion that the major problem with the political Left is that it simply needs to become more speculative and creative. Naturally, this is never a bad idea in any human pursuit. But what if the political distinction between Left, Right, and Center itself results from a failure of imagination? SUGGESTED READING Hobbes vs Rousseau: are we inherently evil? By Robin Douglass This particular division has been with us only since the summer of 1789. During the simmering prelude to the French Revolution, it referred originally to the physical position in the National Assembly of radical figures on one side and loyal monarchists on the other. These positions are linked with two entirely different camps of modern political theory. On the Left we find a series of authors ranging from the moderate (Locke) to the supercharged (Rousseau) to the truly radical (Marx), all of them contending that exploitation of the many by the few justifies revolutionary overthrow of the existing order. On the Right they are countered by the likes of Machiavelli, Hobbes, and Schmitt, a group of thinkers convinced that corrupt human nature can be tamed only by force. In the words of the Nazi supporter Schmitt: “One could test all theories of nature and state and political ideas according to their anthropology and classify these as to whether they consciously or unconsciously presuppose [humans] to be by nature evil or by nature good.” This is the division we continue to face today, even in the daily retail politics of Western democracies.___Our species has regularly proven itself capable of both the noblest gestures and the most scathing cruelties, making it hard to define us as essentially either emancipatory or brutal in our aims.___The most refreshing feature of David Graeber and David Wengrow’s 2021 book The Dawn of Everything: A New History of Humanity was their awareness that the forced choice between Rousseau and Hobbes (as they put it) is no longer sufficient. Our species has regularly proven itself capable of both the noblest gestures and the most scathing cruelties, making it hard to define us as essentially either emancipatory or brutal in our aims. Far from being stationed “beyond good and evil,” we seem to be fully entangled with both. We are not naturally good or evil, Graeber and Wengrow contend, but naturally experimental and imaginative. They rest their case on the archaeological record, which seems to bear witness to numerous episodes of seasonally shifting governments and festivals, which vacillate in the same society (even in the same year) between the egalitarian and the dictatorial. Such praise of political experiment makes a good fit with the generally anarchist position defended by these authors. Yet it is also what I find most disappointing in their position. Although they are right that the forced choice between Hobbes and Rousseau falls short of what our new situation requires, the authors simply replace it with praise for the human being as a political tinkerer and performer. In other words, they give us just another theory of human nature, one that would not have been out of place in the sixteenth or seventeenth century. What other options might we have?___The time is ripe for a retheorization of politics on the basis of something other than human nature… We are not just alienated and limited by objects, but also empowered and unleashed by them___One fresh approach would be to treat politics within a broader framework than human nature, given that the polis does not exist in a vacuum filled exclusively with people. When Bruno Latour went to observe the baboons of Kenya with the San Diego anthropologist Shirley Strum, they jointly concluded that these primates were more socially interdependent than our own species. Each baboon is so reliant on the dynamics of the group that they find themselves locked into constant surveillance of their potentially dangerous peers. The group structure turns out to be inherently volatile. Humans, by contrast, are able to stabilize their societies to a large degree through the mediation of inanimate objects. Although one’s position in society may seem to fluctuate over time, considerable stability is produced through such items as apartment keys, wedding rings, and identification cards, all of them serving to secure us a place distinct from that of our fellows. The Italian philosopher Maurizio Ferraris has written at length about the crucial role of documents in establishing social relations, making him a hero among notaries in his country. Proper names and license plates cement our position amidst other humans, as do symbolic achievements such as graduation from a top university or distinguished wartime service with its various medals and ribbons. None of this is found among baboons, despite their closeness to us on the evolutionary tree: after all, we did share a common ancestor just 25 to 30 million years ago. SUGGESTED VIEWING The goodness paradox With Richard Wrangham The time is ripe for a retheorization of politics on the basis of something other than human nature, whether understood in the manner of the Left or of the Right. We are not just alienated and limited by objects, but also empowered and unleashed by them. But initially, it is true, we face non-human things primarily in the form of constraints. It would be difficult, perhaps impossible, to form a human civilization underwater, deep underground, atop Mount Everest, or in outer space. Human dependence on the non-social background takes on subtler form in discussions of political geography, especially unloved on the more idealistic Left. Consider the luckless position of Poland during World War II, sandwiched between Hitler on one side and Stalin on the other. By contrast, note the good fortune of the United States in not having a military peer positioned on any land border. Anglo-American geopolitics, since the writings of the American naval commander Alfred Thayer Mahan and the British geographer Sir Halford Mackinder, has been wedded to the notion that one or more liberal offshore naval powers should prevent any authoritarian “heartland” regime from gaining effective control of Eurasia. That remains the case whether the opponent is the impatient Napoleon, the swashbuckling German Kaiser, the villainous Hitler, the murderous Stalin, or the industrial juggernaut Chinese. In their current Foreign Affairs article “Heartland vs. Rimland,” Michael Beckley and Hal Brands analyze the current and coming state of the world on the basis of these same rather durable principles. In recent years a similar outlook has been embraced, in inverted form, by the Putin-loving Russian philosopher Aleksandr Dugin, an icon of the Rightist intellectual underworld. For Dugin, the Anglo-Saxons are an evil force bent on destroying the spiritually superior people of the land: much like Athens in its failed war with Sparta, or Carthage in its eventual collapse against Rome. But the shared notion on both sides is that any strategy that fails to take geography into account is likely to end up as a defeated form of excessive optimism.___When dealing with environmental degradation, then, we are doing business with forces that promise dire effects on our species as a whole.___More striking for us today than geography is the non-human object called climate, which threatens rimland and heartland equally. Even if we contend that humans are one hundred percent responsible for triggering the climate crisis, it remains non-human in the sense of being an independent force beyond our effective control. In a major work published just before his death in 2002, The Structure of Evolutionary Theory, the American paleontologist Stephen Jay Gould noted the tendency of evolutionary theorists to focus too closely on the fate of individuals in view of their successful or failed adaptation to circumstances. With climate change, however, we confront a force that goes well beyond the scope of any individual life. Whereas Richard Dawkins extended evolutionary questions downward from individuals to the sub-individual gene, Gould pushed it upward, speaking of entire species or clades as impacted by environmental change. The asteroid that struck the Yucatán 66 million years ago is only the most famous example of this sort. In the wake of that catastrophe, large animals needing abundant supplies of food were at a fatal disadvantage by contrast with the smaller birds and mammals of the planet. When dealing with environmental degradation, then, we are doing business with forces that promise dire effects on our species as a whole. The effect is to shift our attention away from individual beings towards the survival of the group.In the United States in particular, the COVID-19 pandemic sparked considerable backlash among those who asserted a nearly absolute degree of individual freedom. In California I encountered those who demanded that their businesses be allowed to reopen, that it was enough to cover their mouths but not their noses, or that they should have the right to enter any public area despite refusing vaccination. Yet public health is probably the clearest argument against libertarianism, which often merely asserts the autonomy of individuals against any claims of the commons. In normal times the individual is worth defending; under conditions that threaten the survival of part or all of our species, compulsion may be our only resort, as with perfectly reasonable blackouts and rations in wartime. To rebuild human society under the constraints of climate change will be one of the great challenges of the century to come, as will our improvised grappling with artificial intelligence. Such phenomena pose existential risks for humanity, and leave far less room for tolerance of individual brattiness. Cases are mounting of devastating wildfires caused by arson. Recently it was reported that there is even a website where one can bet on the location of coming wildfires, raising the specter of deliberate blazes set to collect on wagers. The death penalty has steadily lost support in a world where many stress the infinite value of human life. But if we focus instead on entire ecosystems, those who purposely burn the forests may begin to look worse than serial murderers.___The politics of the future may be splintered by disagreement over such topics as how to manage our environing background and how to permit or restrict the entry of new objects into the political sphere.___So far I have spoken of force, authority, and punishment: measures sure to have greater appeal to those who identify with what we know as the Right. But other implications of the post-anthropocentric world are likely to have different backers. If non-human objects are seen as structuring political space, it stands to reason that they can no longer be introduced solely by the pace of technical breakthrough. Fields ranging from cybernetics to energy will demand increased politicization once they are reconceived not just as products of individual human investment, but as renovations of collective political geography. This need not involve world government, with its inherent risk of tyranny, but may involve quasi-governmental enforcers of prestige along the lines of a less corrupt FIFA or International Olympic Committee, punishing deviant states not with violence but with less tangible incentives.Politics will never lose its historic links with conflict and faction. But rather than factions aligned by differing theories of human nature, the politics of the future may be splintered by disagreement over such topics as how to manage our environing background and how to permit or restrict the entry of new objects into the political sphere. This will prove just as incommensurable with the modern Left/Right spectrum as a globe is with a two-dimensional map.

Jul 30 • 8:00 AM EDT • Politics • iai.tv

Jacksonville business owners say unsafe Northside building ruined their dreams

Two former Jacksonville business owners say they invested thousands of dollars into their dreams, only to watch them collapse — along with the ceilings above them.

Jul 29 • 6:29 PM EDT • Business • news4jax.com

How drought shaped the Bronze Age world that inspired The Odyssey

A new climate study suggests centuries of drought added pressure to the Bronze Age societies that inspired Homer's The Odyssey, revealing how environmental stress, food insecurity and failing trade networks may have shaped a world of collapse and survival.

Jul 29 • 4:00 AM EDT • Science • cbc.ca

“A tent that is supported only on one side is going to collapse”: The DSA vs. establishment Democrats

Jul 28 • 1:08 AM EDT • Politics • cnn.com

5️⃣ transfers that collapsed at the last minute ❌

Like Yan Diomandé’s move to PSG, which fell through even though everything seemed almost in place for it to go through, others have also collapsed at the very last moments of the transfer window.So...

Jul 27 • 6:01 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com

The politics of the last barrel

As conflict in the Middle East sends shockwaves through global energy markets, governments are rushing to deploy strategic oil reserves to prevent economic turmoil, soaring inflation and supply collapse. Emergency stockpiles have become the world’s last line of defence against a new era of energy insecurity. John Muchira reports

Jul 27 • 4:47 AM EDT • Politics • worldfinance.com

Valve's price hike reportedly wipes out 82% of Steam Deck sales as it goes into "near-total collapse"

Things aren't looking great for handhelds.

Jul 21 • 9:02 PM EDT • Technology • xda-developers.com

Shaky political "science": breakdown of the peer review process

[This article is the latest in our “Shaky Political Science” series. In our 38 page report, “Shaky political ‘science’ misses mark on ranked choice voting,” released in December 2025, we examined over 40 studies focused on ranked choice voting (RCV). Many of these studies suffered from puzzling research methodologies, poorly constructed surveys, unrealistic simulated elections, cherry picked data and faulty analyses that often were contradicted by results from real-world elections (a link to our full paper is here). Here are links to the first four articles in our series: the first one summarizing the overall results of our report; the second one analyzed a study co-authored by University of Minnesota academic Larry Jacobs, which was one of the most error-prone of all the research we reviewed in our report; a third article showing an admirable example of two political scientists holding two other political scientists accountable for their flawed, sloppy research; and a fourth article that analyzed seven studies sponsored by New America’s political reform program that deployed flawed methodology based on “simulated” elections instead of real-world elections, which when combined with some basic misunderstandings of RCV, produced odd and misleading results]. In this fifth article in our “Shaky Political Science” series, we examine two flawed studies on the impact of RCV on voter turnout authored by San Francisco State University professor Jason McDaniel. McDaniel’s research in these two papers stands out for its puzzling methodology, inadequate and cherry-picked data, and faulty analyses that not only misunderstands ranked choice voting but reflects a basic misunderstanding of politics in general. The first of the McDaniel studies actually passed through a peer review process and then was subsequently published by the Journal of Urban Affairs, despite its obvious errors. It is perplexing that a jury of peer political scientists did not catch the errors and send it back to McDaniel for a rewrite or outright rejection. This calls into question the credibility of the peer review process itself. The peer review process is supposed to represent the intellectual pinnacle of the profession – a way for academics to certify the quality of each other’s work, and to act as a check against sloppy research. In the case of the McDaniel study, the peer review process failed. Yet his flawed study has been cited dozens of times by other political scientists in their own flawed works — an unvirtuous circle of academic research. Here is the first Jason McDaniel study that we analyzed: “Writing the Rules to Rank the Candidates: Examining the Impact of Instant-Runoff Voting on Racial Group Turnout in San Francisco Mayoral Elections,” by Jason McDaniel, 2016, Journal of Urban Affairs. This study covered San Francisco’s use of ranked choice voting (RCV) in mayoral elections, purporting to show that RCV reduces voter turnout overall, increases voter errors, and has a negative impact on “marginal populations,” i.e. racial minorities, mainly as the result of the alleged complexity of RCV asking voters to rank candidates and having to be familiar with multiple candidates and related dynamics. McDaniel reached these conclusions by examining five San Francisco mayoral elections taking place in odd years (i.e. where there are no federal or state races on the ballot) from 1995 to 2011, comparing three earlier non-RCV races (in 1995, 1999 and 2003) with the later two RCV races (in 2007 and 2011). Only two RCV races were studied, and as McDaniel acknowledged, only the contest in 2011 was “competitive” (that contest in 2007 was the first mayoral election using RCV, and incumbent mayor Gavin Newsom won easily in the first round of counting, earning 74% of first choices and far ahead of the second place candidate who had just 6.3% of first choices). Yet even the allegedly competitive contest in 2011was won by an incumbent with a landslide margin of nearly 20 points. No other elections were studied by McDaniel, even though San Francisco elects 17 other offices besides mayor with RCV, including the 11 seats on the Board of Supervisors (the name for the city council) in even years, and six other citywide offices in odd years. Previous academic research has found that competitive elections can stimulate greater voter involvement and higher turnout. For unexplained reasons, this study ignored at least 34 other RCV races between the years 2004 to 2011, many of which were very competitive and had high voter turnout. Instead, McDaniel’s analysis based its conclusions on data from only a single, marginally-competitive mayor’s race using RCV. These 2007 and 2011 mayoral elections were the only two RCV elections that McDaniel used as the sole basis for his small data set to determine the impact of RCV on voter turnout. Despite having no meaningful data to inform his study, McDaniel nonetheless concluded that RCV lowered turnout when compared to the previous three mayoral non-RCV elections using two-round runoffs. Then, using the same inadequate database of San Francisco elections, McDaniel also found that “Instant-runoff voting is associated with a significant decline in Black voter turnout and White voter turnout…On average, Black voter turnout decreases by 18 points and White voter turnout decreases by 16 points …” But how could he credibly arrive at that conclusion when his study was based on voter turnout in two RCV contests that were not even remotely competitive? Beyond that, McDaniel tacitly admits that the key determining factor driving Black voter turnout was not RCV vs non-RCV elections, but the presence of a viable Black candidate. McDaniel wrote, “Black voter turnout was about 17 percentage points higher for the two elections that featured an African American candidate compared to the three elections that did not” — but one of those three elections did not use RCV. The same dynamic was present for White voter turnout, in which higher turnout was not correlated with RCV vs non-RCV elections, but the presence of a viable White candidate. Beyond that, McDaniel’s voter turnout results, whether correlated with the race of the candidates or RCV vs non-RCV elections, showed no clear patterns. In his Figure 1, he shows low Asian voter turnout in the non-RCV elections in 1999 and 2003 when there was no viable Asian candidate running, but in the 2007 mayoral election using RCV, there is still no viable Asian candidate, yet Asian turnout increases dramatically. For Latinos, voter turnout is virtually the same in 1999 (no viable Latino candidate, non-RCV elections), 2003 (leading Latino candidate, non-RCV elections), 2007 (no viable Latino candidate, RCV elections) and 2011 (leading Latino candidate, RCV elections). Meanwhile White voter turnout increased dramatically from a low in the 2007 mayoral election, in which the leading candidate was a white incumbent, to the 2011 election in which there were no leading white candidates that finished any higher than sixth place with 5.6% of the vote. Clearly other factors were determining voter turnout than either the race of the candidates or RCV vs non-RCV elections. Despite these inconsistent findings, McDaniel boldly marches forth to render conclusions about the impact of RCV on different groups of racial voters, even though his conclusions are not remotely supported by his data. This looks like the worst kind of “data cherry picking” to cover up a puzzling conclusion based on a poor data set involving only two RCV elections, neither of which were remotely competitive. McDaniel’s cherry picking didn’t stop there. In calculating voter turnout for the three non-RCV mayoral elections in 1995, 1999 and 2003, he failed to mention that in each of these years there was a two-round runoff election, with a first round election in November in which no candidate garnered a winning majority of the vote, followed by the decisive runoff in December. So there were two non-RCV elections in each election year. But McDaniel only decided to include one of the two elections in his data set, apparently the December runoff in each year (which had higher turnout in two out of the three mayor’s races, and lower turnout in the third). So he ignored the November 1995 election, the November 1999 election when turnout was only 45 percent, and the November 2003 election when turnout was only 45.7 percent. This is flawed methodology based on blatant cherry picking, since McDaniel simply omitted three elections worth of data that did not fit within his frame. His study should never have made it through a peer review process, and it is an embarrassment to political science that not only was it approved for publication, but it has been uncritically cited by dozens of other political scientists. Share A “study” without wider context or credible data Lacking a data set that included even a single competitive RCV mayoral race, McDaniel declared that RCV lowered voter turnout in 2011, when turnout was 42.5 percent. But he also ignored -- or did not realize -- that voter turnout in mayoral elections during 2011 had sharply declined in all big cities, including far more steeply in nearby Los Angeles and other cities. In fact, San Francisco’s election in 2011 had the second highest turnout of any mayoral election in the nation’s 22 largest cities from 2008-2011. Was 2011 just a particularly low turnout year all across the country, perhaps because the country was still reeling from the aftermath of the housing market collapse in 2008-2010? McDaniel ignored this factor and did not search for alternative explanations beyond his flawed thesis. Furthermore, while McDaniel suggested that RCV leads to more “overvotes” – which is an invalidated ballot in which a voter, in either a non-RCV or RCV race, makes a mistake and selects two candidates for a single choice – he failed to address that in the June 2012 US Senate primary contest, which used the typical “one-choice” plurality method and did not use RCV, there was more than five times as many overvotes in San Francisco and Oakland than in the RCV mayoral elections in those cities. Additionally, turnout had been significantly higher and more representative in RCV elections for the San Francisco Board of Supervisors races -- that McDaniel didn’t even bother to study -- as compared to previous “delayed two-round runoffs” for those offices, often higher by as much as 40% in the RCV races. Perhaps the most surprising irony was that an earlier study co-authored by McDaniel (Overvoting and the Equality of Voice under Instant-Runoff Voting in San Francisco by Francis Neely and Jason McDaniel, 2015, California Journal of Politics and Policy) found that overvotes are often more common in lower-income precincts, but that the pattern of overvoting is similar in both RCV and non-RCV contests. Wrote Neely and McDaniel: “[Overvote] errors appear to be a function of complexity in general and not IRV per se…. the pattern of overvoting is similar in both IRV and non-IRV contests…Even among votes cast in a top-of-the-ticket race like U.S. Senate, overvoting occurs in an uneven fashion” (IRV, or ‘instant runoff voting,’ is another name for ranked choice voting in single-winner contests). So McDaniel not only contradicted his own conclusion in his earlier study with Neely, but the earlier study had been an important corrective for one of the most frequently made mistakes made by anti-RCV political scientists – a continual failure to provide crucial context by pairing a comparative analysis of real world RCV elections with an analysis of real world plurality or other electoral methods. Unfortunately McDaniel’s earlier study does not get cited much by other researchers, and McDaniel did not even cite it in his own flawed study analyzed above. Incredibly, McDaniel cherrypicked McDaniel, even as his flawed study has been cited dozens of times. Despite being a textbook example of poor political “science,” featuring both inadequate as well as cherrypicked data, the shelf life of McDaniel’s study has been extended endlessly by other political scientists and media outlets who have cited it uncritically. Equally troubling, the Journal of Urban Affairs put this paper through its peer review process and published it despite its numerous flaws. McDaniel gets it wrong, Part II Not content with producing one shoddy, confused paper, McDaniel produced another one a few years later, here is the link: Electoral Rules and Voter Turnout in Mayoral Elections: An Analysis of Ranked-Choice Voting by Jason McDaniel. San Francisco State Univ. (McDaniel, 2019). In this paper, McDaniel extended his previous flawed research focused on San Francisco, about voter turnout and voter impact, to multiple RCV cities through the 2018 elections. In his data set he included San Francisco, Minneapolis, St Paul, Oakland, Berkeley, San Leandro and Santa Fe. He then compared their turnout in mayoral elections to non-RCV cities, and to mayoral elections in those cities held before first RCV usage, and concluded “a significant decrease in voter turnout of approximately 3–5 percentage points in RCV cities after the implementation of RCV.” But he replicated many of the same mistakes as his first study presented above. While in this study McDaniel attempted to distinguish between various factors, such as odd year vs. even year elections, competitive races vs. noncompetitive, contests with open seats and other factors, the analysis is superficial and inadequate. He attempts to incorporate so many often-conflicting variables that his conclusions are once again unsupported by the actual data, and ultimately unconvincing (this second study never underwent a peer review process). For example, McDaniel declared that for RCV cities “in elections that are more competitive than average (margin of victory less than 20%), there is no significant RCV effect on voter turnout.” Yet McDaniel is a professor in a city, San Francisco, in which the 2018 special election using RCV to fill a mayoral vacancy was exceedingly close, decided by a margin of only one percentage point, and resulted in the second highest turnout in San Francisco history for a mayoral election. Illustrating the complexity involved in assessing the critical factors in turnout, that special election was held on the same election day as federal and state offices, which tends to boost turnout. Yet more voters participated in that RCV mayoral election than voted on the same day in the non-RCV primary for governor in which former San Francisco mayor Gavin Newsom was running. Even more puzzling, in this study McDaniel inaccurately cited his own previous study from 2015 with Neely. McDaniel wrote, “Neely and McDaniel (2015) examine individual ballot image files within a natural experiment, and find higher rates of ballot errors in RCV elections compared to non-RCV elections” (emphasis added). However, we quoted from that 2015 study several paragraphs above, and in actual fact Neely and McDaniel actually concluded the opposite -- that the pattern of overvoting – which is the most common form of ballot error – is similar in both RCV and non-RCV contests. McDaniel also ignored the fact that in Bay Area RCV elections held in even years – at the same time as federal and state elections, when turnout is highest -- the “undervote” (that is, the dropoff in ballots cast for governor or mayor) has declined, which contradicts his thesis that the act of ranking ballots in RCV elections is too complex and presents a barrier for certain demographics of voters. To his credit, McDaniel actually acknowledged another contradiction in his own paper, which found a negative RCV turnout effect in some odd-year elections but not others, admitting that “may present a challenge to the theory that increased complexity [from RCV] will have a marginal negative effect on voter turnout.” But he tried to wallpaper over that contradiction by blaming it on an unlikely source -- bad election administration. McDaniels wrote, “This would suggest that the negative impact of RCV on voter participation may be alleviated by high quality election administration,” without presenting any data or even anecdotes to support such an unfounded theory. While competent election administration of any election, whether RCV or non-RCV, is crucially important, there is no credible research that supports the far-fetched notion that the quality of election administration has much of an impact on voter turnout in US elections, whether using RCV or otherwise. Upgrade to a $5 subscription The unvirtuous circle of academic research It is puzzling how McDaniel’s first study could have survived the peer review process for the Journal of Urban Affairs. The mistakes in McDaniel’s first study above should have been obvious to anyone with a basic understanding of ranked choice voting as well as elections in general, and elections in San Francisco specifically. It undermines faith in the credibility of the peer review process to think that a jury of peer political scientists did not catch the egregious errors and reject McDaniel’s sloppy research and paper. And it remains a black mark on political science that this thoroughly discredited study has been cited dozens of times by other researchers. Indeed, in our research paper it became apparent that many political scientists cite each other’s flawed research to pad their list of citations and to legitimize their own flawed research, creating an unvirtuous circle of political science. More broadly, McDaniel’s voter turnout studies, like other studies evaluating RCV’s impact on turnout, lacked a recognition that no credible opinion or research can claim that RCV increases voter turnout merely because so many voters are excited to vote for their favorite candidates instead of “lesser evil” candidates without worrying about spoilers. Instead, with respect to turnout, the advantage of RCV has always been that, in most places where it has been used, it has eliminated a pre-November primary or post-November runoff, which usually saw about half the turnout of the November general election. This is especially true during even years when there are state and federal elections on the ballot which substantially drive turnout more than local contests. Any study that does not adequately account for this non-November primary/runoff vs November general election dynamic, or odd year vs even year election factors, is simply not credible. Both of McDaniel’s studies largely failed on those grounds. Steven Hill and Paul Haughey Share Upgrade to a $5 subscription Thanks for reading DemocracySOS…your digital portal for the pro-democracy movement. Subscribe for only $5 per month to receive full benefits and to support our work. Subscribe

Jul 20 • 9:29 AM EDT • Science • democracysos.substack.com

Major water company in distress as pool business collapses

Pentair (PNR) was one of the pandemic's quiet winners, riding America's backyard pool boom. However, that run ended this week. The company pre-announced weak second-quarter results on July 14, cut its full-year outlook, and revealed its CFO had left four days earlier. Shares dropped about 15% the ...

Jul 19 • 12:47 PM EDT • Business • sg.finance.yahoo.com

AI advice made people three times less accurate but twice as confident, researchers found

A study found that access to AI advice collapsed people's willingness to say "I don't know" from 44% to 3%, while accuracy dropped from 27% to 9%.

Jul 19 • 11:35 AM EDT • Technology • thenextweb.com

Small Business Technology News Roundup: IBM Shares Crash, ChatGPT To Replace Wall Street Analysts

IBM shares collapse, OpenAI says AI will replace workers, Upwork says AI is reshaping freelancing, Microsoft will let you pause Windows 11 updates, Expensify consolidates travel billing

Jul 19 • 7:00 AM EDT • Business • forbes.com

‘White men get to fail’: Graham Platner collapse illuminates toxic double standard in US politics

Expectations that prioritize privileged identities keep women and people of color from even running for office

Jul 19 • 6:00 AM EDT • Politics • theguardian.com

A Major Ocean Current Is On The Verge of Collapse. Scientists Say The Effects May Reach California

The AMOC is slowing down.

Jul 18 • 8:00 PM EDT • Science • sciencealert.com

Trump's 60-day Iran deal reaches halfway mark as ceasefire collapses into escalating war

Halfway through the 60-day negotiating window, the U.S. has struck over 300 Iranian targets while Tehran attacks commercial vessels in the strait.

Jul 17 • 1:11 PM EDT • Politics • foxnews.com

What is democratic socialism and how does it differ from forms practiced elsewhere?

Democratic socialism overlaps with social democracy on many policy goals but often advocates for a larger role for public ownership or worker ownership in certain industries, particularly sectors viewed as essential public services.…

Jul 17 • 7:59 AM EDT • Politics • baltimoresun.com

At War With Iran Again, Trump Finds an Opponent He Cannot Easily Dominate

The president is accustomed to forcing other countries to bend to his will. But he is struggling to come up with a strategy to extract Iranian concessions as the cease-fire he brokered collapses.

Jul 14 • 7:01 PM EDT • Politics • nytimes.com

Rory Feek's youngest daughter airlifted to hospital after life-threatening health scare

Rory Feek describes the terrifying moment his youngest daughter Indiana collapsed, leading to a helicopter airlift and emergency heart surgery.

Jul 14 • 11:25 AM EDT • Health • foxnews.com

Breaking Down the A's Alarming Trends Heading Into the Break

From Emerson's firing to Suarez's emergence, a look at what's driven the A's collapse since June 15 — and which storylines could carry into the second half

Jul 14 • 9:00 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com

This sensor network could help predict bluff collapses along California's coast

Scientists at UC San Diego’s Scripps Institution of Oceanography found that it is possible to predict a coastal landslide hours, sometimes days, before it happens.

Jul 14 • 6:00 AM EDT • Science • latimes.com

Can we predict deadly cliff collapses along the California coast? Scientists say it's possible

Scientists at UC San Diego's Scripps Institution of Oceanography found that it is possible to predict a coastal landslide hours, sometimes days, before it happens.

Jul 14 • 6:00 AM EDT • Science • yahoo.com

Trump’s Cease-Fire Effectively Collapses as He Vows to Restart Blockade and Tolls

After several days of strikes, the president notified Congress that fighting had begun again and announced shipping fees that his administration previously deemed illegal.

Jul 13 • 6:20 PM EDT • Politics • nytimes.com

Anne Arundel County launches grant to assist businesses impacted by collapse zone

The AAEDC launched a grant to assist businesses neighboring Empire Towers, a 10-story office building that had its underground parking garage compromised Friday

Jul 13 • 5:43 PM EDT • Business • foxbaltimore.com

Parkland to loan mental health agency Metrocare $18M to avoid collapse

The Parkland board chair said the emergency loan is to prevent disaster from hitting residents and incarcerated people in the Dallas County jail who depend on Metrocare’s mental health services.

Jul 13 • 5:33 PM EDT • Health • dallasnews.com

Platner’s collapse doesn’t mean we should reject outsiders in politics

We don’t need fewer amateurs running for office. We need far more of them, recruited seriously

Jul 12 • 9:00 AM EDT • Politics • theguardian.com

Maryland attorney general sues Education Department to stop school mental health grant cuts

Maryland Attorney General Anthony Brown filed a new lawsuit to stop the U.S. Department of Education from ending federally funded school mental health grants.

Jul 11 • 9:21 PM EDT • Health • wtop.com

Platner’s Rise and Fall Revives Old Questions About ‘Bernie Bros’ and Women

The collapse of Graham Platner’s Senate bid in Maine after a rape allegation renewed attention to a movement built by Senator Bernie Sanders that some say is too forgiving of male misconduct.

Jul 11 • 5:02 AM EDT • Politics • nytimes.com

Sexual Assault Allegations Reshape Political Races from Maine to San Francisco

Sexual assault allegations have upended high-profile political campaigns across the country. This week, Democrat Graham Platner, a candidate for U.S. Senate in Maine, suspended his campaign following an accusation of rape. It comes months after former East Bay Congressman Eric Swalwell’s California gubernatorial bid collapsed under similar allegations. Now, a sexual assault allegation has emerged

Jul 10 • 7:00 PM EDT • Politics • kqed.org

How Maine's Democratic meltdown could shape the Senate midterms

Collapse of Democrats' Maine Senate campaign highlights divisions within the party.

Jul 10 • 4:37 PM EDT • Politics • foxnews.com

Bucs Ranked Very Low in Offseason Power Rankings

Haunted by a historic late-season collapse and the departure of franchise icons, Tampa Bay faces skepticism as critics question if this roster can still dominate the division.

Jul 9 • 11:01 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com

Mamdani discusses Midtown building’s partial collapse, Legionnaires’ outbreak

Watch the full interview here.

Jul 9 • 7:00 PM EDT • Politics • ny1.com

Scientists Say a Critical Ocean Current System May Already Be Past the Point of No Return

Scientists have long debated whether the AMOC is nearing collapse, but the latest findings are certainly alarming.

Jul 9 • 1:30 PM EDT • Science • gizmodo.com

Christian Eriksen’s club gives health update after second on-pitch collapse

Christian Eriksen collapsed during Denmark’s friendly with Ukraine last month

Jul 9 • 12:15 PM EDT • Health • sports.yahoo.com

"Red monsters" in space: why these ancient galaxies shatter scientists’ beliefs - Futura-Sciences

The Puzzle of Early Galactic Giants In the standard picture of galaxy formation, large halos of dark matter form first. Their gravity pulls in ordinary matter, mostly gas, which can then cool, collapse, and form stars. But this process is not supposed to be perfectly efficient. Star formation is usually...

Jul 9 • 7:30 AM EDT • Science • futura-sciences.com

US strikes on 5 Iranian provinces kill 14, injure 78: Health Ministry

Casualty figures come as fighting between US, Iran intensifies following collapse of ceasefire | Anadolu

Jul 9 • 5:23 AM EDT • Health • aa.com.tr

Ancient DNA reveals the mysterious collapse of Europe's megalith builders

DNA from a 5,000-year-old French megalithic tomb reveals that the people buried before and after a population collapse were genetically unrelated, pointing to a major migration after a devastating crisis. The shift coincided with new social traditions and the disappearance of the communities that built Europe's giant stone monuments.

Jul 7 • 8:00 PM EDT • Science • sciencedaily.com

Chasen bankruptcy: Baltimore developer grilled by lawyers on business associates

Former Baltimore real estate mogul Brandon Chasen distanced himself from irregularities that appeared in his business empire’s finances during the lead-up to its collapse.

Jul 7 • 4:58 PM EDT • Business • thedailyrecord.com

Key Bridge collapse: Baltimore, business owners fight Dali owners’ bid to limit liability

Baltimore, Baltimore County, and a business coalition are pushing back against the owners and operators of the Dali.

Jul 7 • 12:33 PM EDT • Business • baltimoresun.com

Business Monday: Big Island companies continue to recover from Kona low storms and earthquake

With the completion of property damage assessments from South Kona’s magnitude 6 earthquake that struck on May 22, Hawai‘i County officials now are waiting for Gov. Josh Green’s decision about whether he will file for a presidential disaster declaration that will help individuals and business owners secure funding for repairs.

Jul 6 • 11:00 AM EDT • Business • bigislandnow.com

Marlins pull Eury Pérez after 7 perfect innings, nearly blow 8-run lead in wild near-collapse to Athletics

Jul 5 • 9:52 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com

9 Founders Who Turned Their Worst Moment Into A Business

Nine founders faced rock bottom, a death, a diagnosis, a war, a collapse, and built a business out of it. How they found strength when it felt furthest away.

Jul 2 • 8:00 AM EDT • Business • forbes.com

Daniel Cormier at last recalls why Brock Lesnar superfight collapsed

Daniel Cormier has revealed that a business decision prevented him from fighting Brock Lesnar.

Jul 2 • 2:59 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com

Yankees collapse, rally, collapse again as Tigers sweep

Oh look, a new way to feel pain.

Jul 1 • 4:54 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com

Yankees’ Nightmare Week Should Worry New York Fans

The New York Yankees were looking like the best team in the American League by a wide margin this time last week. However, since all of the optimism, even with Aaron Judge and others injured, things have collapsed.

Jun 30 • 9:17 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com

Benchmark Scores Don’t Break. Clinical Reality Does. The Health AI Readiness Illusion.

Nature Medicine's frontier AI evaluation exposes a dangerous gap: models acing medical benchmarks collapse under adversarial pressure, and the FDA has no…

Jun 29 • 2:49 AM EDT • Health • clinicaltrialvanguard.com

Businesses 'can't survive' Shirley roadworks, publican warns

Southern Water has been repairing a collapsed sewer in Shirley, Southampton since April.

Jun 29 • 1:09 AM EDT • Business • bbc.com

Tilak Varma enters unwanted record books after slowest-ever...

Tilak Varma's resilient half-century was a lone bright spot for India in their narrow one-run loss to Ireland, despite becoming one of the slowest Indian fifties in T20Is. Walking in during a top-order collapse, Varma battled tough conditions to reach his milestone. Ultimately, Ireland secured a historic series win, ending India's impressive streak.

Jun 29 • 1:00 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com

Scientists Confirm that Two Gamma-Ray Bursts Were Caused by Collapsing Neutron Stars

Researchers from the Los Alamos National Laboratory have confirmed that two long-duration gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) originated from the collapse of neutron stars into black holes.

Jun 28 • 5:56 PM EDT • Science • universetoday.com

Harry Styles chokes on water, collapses on stage at London concert amid U.K. heat wave

Harry Styles caused some serious fan concern after lying down on stage at the end of his Friday night Wembley Stadium set.

Jun 28 • 3:46 PM EDT • Entertainment • ew.com

Meta's reckoning has arrived

After years of layoffs, restructuring, and hard-charging management tactics, Meta's leaders are acknowledging a collapse in employee trust and morale.

Jun 25 • 4:07 AM EDT • Business • businessinsider.com

Buccaneers Coach Called Out by NFL Legend

James Harrison slams Todd Bowles for fostering a culture of laziness, arguing that Tampa Bay’s defensive collapse stems from a lack of accountability during team practices.

Jun 25 • 2:13 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com

How America's last denim mill survived the collapse of the US clothing industry

Foreign competition has shuttered nearly every US denim mill. We went inside one of the oldest ones left and checked out the high-tech competition.

Jun 20 • 9:00 AM EDT • Business • businessinsider.com

Olympian Jenny Simpson shows 'encouraging improvement' after collapse

The 39-year-old Simpson underwent CPR at a track Tuesday and was taken to the hospital.

Jun 19 • 8:49 AM EDT • Sports • spectrumlocalnews.com

Watching water nanodrops spread themselves thin

Researchers at the Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo, have determined the molecular origin of line tension for a water nanodroplet on a surface. This tension is the force along the droplet edge where liquid, solid, and gas phases meet. Computational studies showed that at complete wetting, collapse of tetrahedral order in liquid water causes the line tension to change sign. An ice bilayer did not wet a hydrophilic surface, showing that local order can outweigh surface chemistry.

Jun 18 • 8:00 PM EDT • Science • eurekalert.org

Fulton building collapse halts new coffee shop's upcoming opening

Many people were affected after a two-story building on Nichols Street collapsed in downtown Fulton on Wednesday.

Jun 18 • 7:11 PM EDT • Business • komu.com

Microsoft's cloud infrastructure talks with Oracle collapse, Business Insider reports

June 16 (Reuters) - Microsoft's discussions with Oracle regarding a cloud infrastructure leasing deal, potentially valued at more than $3 billion, have fallen apart due to security and compliance

Jun 16 • 4:09 PM EDT • Business • finance.yahoo.com

Microsoft's cloud infrastructure talks with Oracle collapse, Business Insider reports

Microsoft's discussions ​with Oracle ‌regarding a ​cloud ​infrastructure leasing deal, ⁠potentially ​valued at ​more than $3 billion, ​have ​fallen apart due ‌to ⁠security and compliance concerns, ​Business ​Insider ⁠reported ​on Tuesday.

Jun 16 • 4:08 PM EDT • Business • reuters.com

Blue state’s anti-ICE pledge collapses as GOP warns of new sanctuary ‘confederacy’

Colorado reverses controversial requirement that attorneys certify they would not share court information with federal immigration enforcement agencies.

Jun 16 • 1:34 PM EDT • Politics • foxnews.com

Gilat to buy Comtech satcoms business six years after failed merger

Israel’s Gilat Satellite Networks plans to expand its defense capabilities by acquiring most of Comtech’s space-related communications business, six years after the U.S. company’s own takeover bid collapsed.

Jun 15 • 4:54 PM EDT • Business • spacenews.com

Immokalee business owner aids injured man after witnesses say he collapsed

Erica Ramirez, owner of Los Eloteros in Immokalee, says she stopped to help a man with severe injuries who collapsed near her business after he said he was hit by a car

Jun 14 • 6:45 PM EDT • Business • gulfcoastnewsnow.com

A dying star could create a new universe instead of a black hole

What if some black holes aren’t black holes at all? A new theoretical study suggests that when a massive star collapses, it might not form a singularity hidden behind an event horizon. Instead, the collapse could trigger the birth of a tiny new universe inside the dying star. Driven by dark energy, this miniature cosmos would expand and push back against gravity, preventing complete collapse and creating an exotic object known as a gravastar.

Jun 13 • 8:00 PM EDT • Science • sciencedaily.com

La Palma Mega-Tsunami Hype Collapses Under New Science

A viral theory claims it could devastate the East Coast, but experts aren't convinced.

Jun 13 • 2:19 PM EDT • Science • yahoo.com

In Retrospect: Poland, Russia, Europe

In April I spent a few days with Zryw, a Polish non-profit organization that recruits young people to enter politics and public life. Their aim is to build a new generation of civic leaders in Poland. I’ve followed their evolution from the beginning; my son is one of the founders. (“Zryw” means “impulse” or “burst of speed” in Polish). Julie Chmielewska, one of Zryw’s leaders, interviewed me at the event. Here is the conversation, lightly edited for grammar and context: Julia Chmielewska: Assuming that culture shapes institutions, could we conclude that some cultures are more prone to authoritarianism? Anne Applebaum: I don’t think so. Every culture, every nation, and every country has the potential for change. When we look at history, we can see that nations do change. Poland has changed, for example, from the 1980s to today. There’s a completely different mentality here than the one I encountered when I first visited, in 1988. The current generation sees the world through a different frame. So no, I don’t believe that certain nations are doomed to authoritarianism, or to anything. Of course, there are political and cultural traditions, but they can always be challenged. JC: So do you think there’s something intrinsic in human nature that pushes people to democracy, freedom? AA: I think there is something in human nature, a deep instinct, that pushes people towards freedom, yes. People who live in authoritarian countries – and I’ve heard this from them over and over again – sooner or later find themselves angered by a feeling of helplessness. They can see the unfairness of crooked courts, irrational political decisions. They naturally dislike the fact that somebody has all the power while they have none. In those circumstances, people who have no political background at all sometimes are politicized just by that frustration. I’m thinking of Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, for example, who was a Belarusian housewife, until the circumstances of her husband’s arrest forced her to become a politician. I met a woman who is a Uyghur from China, and who had come to live in Turkey. After several of her family members were arrested, she too was propelled into a political role. These kinds of experiences make people interested in democracy or political reform, even if they thought they didn’t care. I also think that the opposite is true: some people instinctively prefer homogeneity, order, hierarchy. They don’t like the confrontation of opinions or the noise of debate, and they lean towards a single leader or a unified regime. I think that most of modern history is shaped by the clash between those two different sides of human nature. JC: Which force do you find more powerful today? AA: I think they both have a lot of power and there’s no way of predicting who wins. Even in countries that seem very shut off or stuck in an authoritarian system can change. We’ve seen that happen. And vice versa, I think democracies can also begin to fail and slide into authoritarianism. So it’s very important not to be complacent in either direction. JC: I want to go into your history and your experiences. You’ve lived in Russia during a time of incredible change in the late 80s, and then you came back to do research in post-Soviet Russia. AA: I was a student in Russia just before the collapse of the Soviet Union. I then traveled and worked there extensively in the 1990s, and I met people who really were full of hope. They hoped that Russia could become a democracy, or at least a place that guaranteed freedom of speech, freedom of the press. These weren’t ideas that came from Washington. Although now the narrative in the Kremlin is different, I met many people who were working towards exactly that kind of transformation. A friend of mine ran a series of seminars – once a year, and then later several times a year, in cities all over Russia – designed to get people to discuss politics in new ways. She invited young politicians and journalists, as well as foreigners. I went to many of them, in Moscow as well as Volgograd and Novosibirsk. Over two decades, hundreds of people came to these seminars, and all of them wanted Russia to be different. I remain convinced that many Russians still want Russia to be different. It’s just that the old system, in the form of Putin, a representative of that system, returned. The KGB reimposed their power. And this wasn’t because of something to do with culture, this was to do with money and politics, and who was in charge. JC: You’ve partially answered my question... I wanted to ask whether that excitement of the 1990s was an exception from the Russian historical norm which has been rather authoritarian? AA: Of course, if you look at the history of Russia since the 18th century, there have always been liberal groups, reformers and revolutionaries. There were the Decembrists, in the early 19th century, and the rural populists later on, who tried to organize the peasantry. A significant group of liberal Russians appeared at the turn of the 20th century, people like the father of the writer Vladimir Nabokov, who was a Russian politician before the revolution. These groups were small in number, but sometimes had a broader significance. The Russian dissident movement in the 1950s and 1960s actually invented the modern human rights movement. It was their idea to hold the leaders of the Soviet Union accountable for the language they used, to remind them of the treaties they had signed and the promised they had made. They created the Helsinki group, for example, that held Soviet leadership to the language of the Helsinki Treaty, which formally ended the Second World War and which contained guarantees of human rights, at least on paper. That idea spread to Eastern Europe, and similar tactics were used here in Poland. (Benjamin Nathans recently wrote a great book about the Soviet dissidents, To the Success of Our Hopeless Cause) JC: But seemingly, even if they do ever get power, they could never hold on to it. AA: We don’t know, because they have never really had power. But in any case, we also don’t know what will happen in the future. There is no reason to assume that Russia will forever be condemned to totalitarianism. Even during the first fifteen years of Putin’s regime there was some form of democratic politics. Only when the full-scale war began did he bring everything to an end: he shut down all remaining independent organizations and killed his most important opponent, Alexi Navalny. But does that mean he is popular, that he enjoys legitimacy? Even now, we don’t really know what Russians think about him, or about the war. There is no way of doing real polling in Russia because nobody will answer an independent pollster over the phone. JC: Do you think that the flock of young people, especially young men, who fled Russia after the start of the war represent a continuation of liberal movements that refuse to partake in the authoritarian state, or do you think they are moving for the sake of self-preservation – “I don’t want to go to the army, so I leave”? AA: I’m sure it’s both. I actually know many people who left Russia for political reasons either in the very last years before the war, or else just after the war began. JC: And do you see a change in the young generation versus the old one that have fled? AA: It’s hard for me to say because the people who I know were mostly already politicized. I do know some younger people who left, but most of them were already either active in the opposition, or working as journalists. Many of them very self-consciously think of themselves as maintaining Russian culture abroad, just as in the 20th century the Soviet dissidents or the anti-communist White Russians once thought of themselves as people who maintained the true Russian culture, outside of Bolshevik Russia. JC: Let’s move on to Poland. One of your first experiences with Poland was reporting on Margaret Thatcher’s first state visit, in the autumn of 1988. You followed her around the farmers’ market. AA: She was making a symbolic gesture. She wanted to welcome free markets, but the only one she could really visit was the farmers’ market at Hala Mirowska. JC: And I want to talk about this area because today you can look out of any window in that district, Mirów, and see rows and rows of skyscrapers. How does it feel to see a country built from the ground in such a short time, both politically and economically? AA: You know, when you’re living in a period of dramatic change, it’s always hard to know whether the change is positive or negative. The transformation in Poland created winners and losers, as well as new classes of people, new political movements of different kinds. At the time, it sometimes just felt like turbulence. Now, we can look back at the 1990s and early 2000s in Poland and see in retrospect that the country was headed in towards prosperity and European integration. In around 2009 or 2010, I remember speaking to a woman who worked cleaning government offices, and who asked me if her daughter should study in Amsterdam or in London. This seemed to me to be a real transformation, and it happened very fast: within a few years, Poles stopped feeling like second-class Europeans, and a generation of younger Poles appeared who had no qualms about crossing borders. JC: We again live in turbulent times. Do you think we’re heading towards positive outcomes? AA: I can’t make predictions, because everything that happens tomorrow depends on what people do today. Also, history doesn’t have a trajectory. It doesn’t move in a particular direction. You only think it does afterwards. As I said, you can look afterwards at Poland in the 1990s and you could say this was a period of great progress. But not everybody at the time saw that. Sometimes people are very wrong about a given country’s trajectory. I remember people writing about Ukraine in the 1990s, about how dangerous it was that Ukraine was independent, that this was going to be an anti-semitic state, that Ukrainian nationalism was going to come back... and although you can say many bad things about Ukraine, the country made many bad choices, actually it became a pretty tolerant state which now has a Jewish president and until recently a Muslim defense minister. JC: In the 1990s Poland’s and Ukraine’s GDP were roughly similar. Ukraine was even a bit richer. So the starting point was similar for both of these countries, but they’ve turned out very, very differently. Even if we stop in 2014. Why do you think Ukraine “chose East”? Was it external influence? AA: No, I think Ukraine was in a different position. First of all, central and eastern Ukraine had been part of the Soviet Union since the 1920s, and had therefore experienced a longer period of occupation, repression, Sovietization and even Russification. Ukraine did not have, as Poland did, an alternative elite: a large cadre of economists and politicians, who already had some experience in opposition politics and in independent thinking. In Poland, the transformative finance minister, Leszek Balcerowicz, had already thought about how an economy might be decentralized before he took office. We can argue about how successful he was, but at least he was prepared to try something new. In Ukraine, people weren’t prepared. For one, there hadn’t been much space even for an illegal opposition in the previous couple of decades. Ukraine was also in many ways still emerging from colonial occupation. For the previous couple of centuries, many of the most capable Ukrainians had moved to Russia, and the first generation of leaders in independent Ukraine tended to be former Soviet apparatchiks. They didn’t immediately seek to become closer to western Europe. Instead, they looked for some kind of economic and political “third way” and an accomodation with Russia. Ukraine became stuck in this position, half-in, half-out and became pretty profoundly corrupt. JC: The Polish alternative elite had a vision of where they wanted the country to go. I think the general perception now is that this vision ends with the next election, right? Is this a natural process of gaining power? AA: Their vision, and it was shared by the time by politicians who now call themselves both left and right, was that Poland should join the EU and NATO, as fast as possible. My husband (Radek Sikorski) was in the very first government that said it wanted to join NATO. At the time this was taken very badly in Washington: the demand for NATO membership absolutely came from Poland, not from the US. But even then, in the early 1990s, many Poles already understood that the Russian sphere of influence would grow once again, that it was important to become part of the transatlantic alliance and an integrated Europe as fast as possible: NATO, the EU, the Council of Europe, all of the trading and security alliances. That consensus lasted through several different governments and over many years, even governments containing former communists. For twenty years, right, left and center disagreed about many things, but they all agreed on the direction that the country should go. In retrospect, that consensus created the basis for prosperity in Poland. JC: And regarding the Polish-Ukrainian relations. We know that antagonisms, e.g. the myth of Wołyń [a massacre of Poles that took place in what is now Western Ukraine, in 1943] are increasingly used in Polish political discourse today. In Ukraine, nationalist historians make heroes out of UPA, the Ukrainian revolutionary army, which is held responsible for this tragedy. Where do you see a start for burying the hatchet? Is the reconciliation of our nations possible? AA: So here’s a strange thing: For more than a decade after they both gained independence, Poland and Ukraine participated in a number of projects that were designed to solve exactly these kinds of Polish-Ukrainian differences. Books were published that were jointly written by Polish and Ukrainian historians, monuments were built. These projects were successful: If you’d asked me this question in 2010, I would have said that there are no real historical issues between Poland and Ukraine, that the two countries had mostly reconciled. For a number of reasons, this began to shift. In Poland, children and grandchildren of victims of the Wołyń massacre felt their tragedy hadn’t been fully recognized. In Ukraine, nationalist groups wanted the UPA partisans who had fought against the Soviet Union recognized for their heroism, despite the fact that some in this broad and not well-defined group were also linked to Wołyń. In both eastern Poland and western Ukraine, the memory of the ethnic cleansing that took place there in the late 1940s - Poles were moved West, Ukrainians East - to accomodate new borders has left feelings of displacement and bitterness. The wave of Ukrainian immigration, which started before the war, may have provoked some of this. But don’t underestimate the role played by Russia, which has always wanted to create discord between Poland and Ukraine, and pumps out propaganda to that effect in both countries. Vandalism on both sides of the border, damage done to cemeteries and monuments, is sometimes carried out by provacateurs working for Russia, just to create bad feelings. The Polish-Ukrainian conflict also hides a different reality: although there are real grievances and bad memories, the truth is that the biggest tragedies both nations experienced in the twentieth century were inflicted by the Soviet Union and Nazi Germany. That should unite these two countries, not divide them. JC: This week (19.04.2026 – Ed.) in Hungary we saw that using historical narratives to create grievance has no longer worked. Are you optimistic about the direction after Orban’s loss? AA: The Hungarian election was really important because it shows that people can actually resist powerful, dominant propaganda. The ruling party Fidesz controlled all of the TV, 90% of the newspapers, the constitutional court, the bureaucracy... and yet people had the nerve to vote against it and resist it. It’s also an important election because Hungary created a huge network of well-funded think tanks and foundations that were funding other far right groups and projects. So that loss is going to have a knock-on effect in other places too, maybe even in Poland. JC: What you’ve said about resisting propaganda reminds me of one of the interviews you did about talking to Russians in the post-Soviet era who claimed that people knew that the system was lying. Why do people choose to believe in these regimes anyway? AA: Because it’s useful. Stephen Kotkin, an American historian, once described how people would learn how to “speak Bolshevik”: It was just a language that you needed to use in order to get by in society. If you didn’t talk the way the regime wanted you to talk, then you might have problems, or lose your job, or your kids would not get into university. It was a way of getting along. Communist Poland was similar, at least in the early years. When I was writing a book about the Sovietization of Eastern Europe after World War II, I met a lot of people who wanted to talk a lot about the war, when many of them had done really heroic things. But almost nobody wanted to talk about the decade afterwards, between 1945 and 1956. This was when you had the short period of terror, violence and Polish Stalinism. To stay safe, people felt the need to just go along with what others were saying, or stay out of politics, or use communist jargon without necessarily believing it. I don’t judge them for it, and I wouldn’t describe all of those people as collaborators. It’s easy to feel moral certainty in retrospect, because we know that communism ended. But if you were living in 1949, it might not have been clear to you that communism was going to end. In very repressive societies, maybe about 10% of people who are really evil – collaborators, torturers. Maybe 10% of people are really brave and who find ways to resist. And then around 80% of people have kids, they have parents, they have to have jobs and they’ve had to get through it somehow. Strange though it may sound, I’ve found that the work I did on that book is now very useful in explaining some of what’s going on in the United States today. There are plenty of members of the Republican Party in Congress who know perfectly well that Donald Trump says many things that aren’t true. But they avoid criticizing him because it’s inconvenient, because they would get in trouble, because someone would attack them on the internet. So actually you don’t even need mass terror to get people to conform. JC: Is Gen Z reinventing agency? AA: We’ll see. In any generation you can find groups of people who want agency. If you live in a society that’s unfair, for example where a tiny number of people have captured most of the wealth, then at a certain point people rebel. This is always easier for younger people, who have you have less to lose. The question now is how the internet will affect the relationships between citizens and the state, and how it will change organizations. The “Twitter revolutions” people spoke about as early as 2008-9, mass protests organized online, have often proved to be very superficial. Although you can easily join something just by clicking, the work of creating a real movement requires physical participation. Successful mass movements of the past, for example the Civil Rights movement in the United States, were built by people who had spent many years together. They had participated in non-violent workshops together. They practiced and prepared. Just using the you can get everybody to show up at a certain moment, but then when the protest is broken up, nothing happens. It’s also true that the repressive regimes have more recently learned how to use the internet to undermine leaders and movements. Most of all, they now understand how to make people cynical. The form of propaganda that most modern authoritarians use - and I think the Russians really pioneered this - deploys sneering cynicism. Instead of praising the rulers, the regime propagandists mock the opposition movement leadership for being supposedly corrupt or sexually degenerate, with the goal of undermining any kind of idealism. JC: MAGA grew on the internet? AA: MAGA is a real grassroots movement. They had symbols, red hats, they showed up at rallies. But you’re right that the cynicism, the sarcasm and the distrust that the movement embodies came originally from the internet, and this is different. Fifty years ago, most European political parties had a social base in real organizations, in trade unions for Social Democrats, in church groups for Christian Democrats. As people stopped going to church and as the trade unions became smaller, the social base of these parties disappeared. Now people who wouldn’t have known one another in the past meet on the internet and create new movements, many of which don’t last. JC: Is history ending? Going in stale circles? AA: History never ends. In truth, human beings want contradictory things at the same time: order and freedom, stability and change. These things are never resolved, and when a society swings too far in one direction, people always push it the other way. But each time that happens, the result is different. Certainly it is true that we are now in a period when old philosophers and ideas from the 1930s are undergoing a revival. Carl Schmitt, who was a philosopher who was very influential on the Nazis, is back as an influence on both the far left and the far right, once again inspiring people to think that all politics has to be existential, that all politics is about defining and defeating enemies. In the US, some are also bringing back dominionism, the idea that we need a Christian and not a secular state. It’s also true that we are living through a more fundamental shift. The old left-right divide, which was mostly about the size of the state, is much less important now. Instead, we are arguing about more fundamental things: what are our rights, what protects our freedom. Or how much power do we want to give small elites, versus how much power to give ordinary people. In America a small group of very wealthy people now control information, because they control the social media platforms and AI, which means they determine what people will read and learn. Finding a way to preserve preserve zones of autonomy and independent thinking, this is going to be the main task for the next generation. JC: What is the one book that a person interested in Central Europe should read? AA: You could read my book “Iron Curtain: the Crushing of Eastern Europe” which tells the story of how the Soviet Union imposed its culture on the region. Or read Tim Snyder’s history of the region, “The Reconstruction of Nations: Poland, Ukraine, Lithuania, Belarus 1569-1999.” And everyone should read “The Captive Mind” by Czesław Miłosz, which describes exactly the phenomenon we were talking about: why do people collaborate? I joined Scott Galloway and the brilliant Fiona Hill in a discussion about the wars in Ukraine and Iran, the future of global power, and what these conflicts reveal about America's role in the world. Scott told us that this was the 400th edition of his podcast, which is quite a number: My friend Francesco Chiamulera runs a brilliant series of literary events, Una Colline di Libri, A Hill of Books, in the Prosecco Hills, a region of vineyards and elegant hill towns in the Veneto, north of Venice. We did an event in Vittorio Veneto and also drove and biked around the countryside. Buy Autocracy Inc Buy Iron Curtain Open Letters, from Anne Applebaum is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Subscribe

Jun 13 • 4:15 AM EDT • Politics • anneapplebaum.substack.com

Family-owned Hartford business reopens after pipe burst, ceiling collapsed

HARTFORD, Conn. (WTNH) — After a pipe burst in February, Refuge Tattoo and Taza Cafe was closed indefinitely. Now, the Hartford shop is reopening its doors. On February 6, water came pouring in and…

Jun 12 • 6:24 PM EDT • Business • wtnh.com

Whoopi Goldberg collapses live on “The View ”in shock over Knicks game

The EGOT-winning actress displayed her latest feat of feigned unconsciousness at the Hot Topics table.

Jun 11 • 12:00 PM EDT • Entertainment • yahoo.com

Victor Wembanyama Points to Spurs’ Biggest Problem After Finals Collapse

Victor Wembanyama shares his honest thoughts after Spurs' game four collapse against the Knicks.

Jun 11 • 12:52 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com

🚨 Denmark issue fresh health update on Christian Eriksen

Denmark national team doctor Morten Boesen has issued an update on Christian Eriksen's condition on Monday morning.For the second time in his career, the former Manchester United midfielder collapsed ...

Jun 8 • 3:57 AM EDT • Health • sports.yahoo.com

Christian Eriksen collapses on field, Denmark-Ukraine soccer friendly suspended

Jun 7 • 3:00 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com

Fear for Eriksen: taken ill and match suspended, player conscious

Moments of great fear for Christian Eriksen during the Denmark-Ukraine friendly at Nature Energy Park in Odense. Around the 65th minute, Christian Eriksen clutched his chest and then collapsed to the ...

Jun 7 • 2:19 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com

Report: Goretzka reconsidering Juventus move due to Milan crisis

Leon Goretzka is reportedly reconsidering his transfer destination, with Juventus emerging as a serious option after the organizational collapse at AC Milan stalled what had appeared to be an imminent...

Jun 7 • 5:00 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com

Foreign Businesses Are Fleeing Cuba as Its Economy Collapses

Mastercard and Visa are suspending transactions, hotel operators are pulling out and a major Canadian miner is rethinking its presence on the island.

Jun 6 • 7:00 PM EDT • Business • wsj.com

UCare paid CEO $1.28M during collapse, including a bonus

Hilary Marden-Resnik and a dozen top executives received incentive compensation last year as the nonprofit health insurer staggered toward its demise.

Jun 4 • 10:36 AM EDT • Health • startribune.com

Chief: Spartanburg Co. business roof collapses as fire continues to burn

FOX Carolina's Myra Ruiz has the details.

Jun 4 • 9:16 AM EDT • Business • foxcarolina.com

Roof collapses during fire at Upstate business, firefighters say

The roof collapsed during a fire at a Spartanburg County business Thursday morning, according to the Una Fire Department.

Jun 4 • 7:21 AM EDT • Business • wyff4.com

The Knicks’ grimy Game 1 win, plus a World Cup retrospective

The Pulse Newsletter 📣 | This is The Athletic’s daily sports newsletter. Sign up here to receive The Pulse directly in your inbox. Good morning! Embrace the grime today. Coming up: 🗽 New York’s moxie 🌬️ Sabalenka’s collapse 👨🏻‍🦲 Wildest World Cup moments One thought raced through my head every time I watched a New York Knicks possession in the fourth quarter last night: These dudes are grimy. I mean that as a huge compliment. There’s grit, and then there’s grime. Every bucket, every rebound, every screen oozed difficulty, as if each player was...

Jun 4 • 6:15 AM EDT • Sports • nytimes.com