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Steelers bring back hard-hitting, fan-favorite linebacker
Roberts, 32, spent the 2023 and 2024 seasons playing with the Steelers, and spent the 2025 season playing for the Las Vegas Raiders.
‘It’s impactful’: Seattle Sports fans see a bright future at stadium gatherings
Two major sports events took place in Seattle on Saturday. The Super Bowl-winning Seahawks held their Fan Fest, and the Mariners celebrated 50 years of Seattle baseball as the team hosted the Tampa Bay Rays.
Jacobs Wellington Foundation And Cox Science Center Celebrate STEM Partnership - Town-Crier Newspaper
The Jacobs Wellington Foundation and the Cox Science Center & Aquarium are celebrating six years of partnership dedicated to expanding STEM education opportunities for Wellington students. Through the foundation’s continued support of the Cox Science Center’s STEM Passport program, approximately 500 Wellington-area elementary and middle school students will participate in hands-on science, technology, engineering and […]
Jaguars’ EVP Tony Boselli talks offensive line
Tony Boselli talks with Action Sports Jax about rebuilding Jacksonville Jaguars offensive line.
Pirates release Marcell Ozuna
After struggling all season, the Pirates are releasing veteran designated hitter Marcell Ozuna. A source confirmed the news to Pittsburgh Baseball Now.
OU Health secures $750,000 grant for state’s first comprehensive pediatric behavioral health center
OU Health officials celebrated the grant Tuesday, which will support the project's general fund.
Politics Chat, July 30, 2026
A newsletter about the history behind today's politics.
Business owner criticized over picture with Republican gubernatorial candidate Rick Jackson
San Francisco Giants Get Jonah Cox News During Brewers Series
On Tuesday night, the San Francisco Giants are back at Oracle Park for the second game of their series with the Milwaukee Brewers.They are coming off a 3-0 win on Monday night.San Francisco Giants Announce Jonah Cox NewsDuring their series with the Brewers, the Giants announced an update on Jonah Cox.He has been out since […] The post San Francisco Giants Get Jonah Cox News During Brewers Series appeared first on HEAVY.
Patriots cornerback Christian Gonzalez discusses pending contract situation
Gonzalez emphasized his desire to participate in camp despite the deal not being done.
Steelers Get Good News on Health of OT Broderick Jones
Broderick Jones, the team’s first-round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, suffered a season-ending neck injury that required surgery last October
Pirates trounced by Cubs in front of sellout Crowd
Neither team scored through the first three innings.
NFL commissioner praises Charlotte, says it’s ‘Super Bowl quality’
NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell spent Thursday evening in the Queen City as he joined Carolina Panthers owner David Tepper for a fireside chat.
Chandler dazzles, but Pirates drop pitchers’ duel to Yankees
Bubba Chandler turned in one of the best starts of his career, but the Pirates were defeated 2-0 by the Yankees.
Local mental health nonprofit cuts the ribbon on new facility
A local mental health nonprofit cut the ribbon on a new facility.
UFC Freedom 250 Fails to Knock Out The Ratings
(Welcome to my weekly streaming ratings report, the single best guide to what’s popular in streaming TV and what isn’t. I’m the Entertainment Strategy Guy, a former streaming executive who now analyzes business strategy in the entertainment industry. If you were forwarded this email, please subscribe to get these insights each week.) If UFC fans wanted one image to say, “Hey, Paramount+ is crushing it with their UFC rights deal,” I could provide that image. Here it is: (Reminder: this is my creation of the Nielsen Top 30, since Nielsen doesn’t combine the lists or include sports. I take all three lists and combine them. Some streaming TV shows probably have higher ratings than many of the films on this list.) Look at that! UFC Freedom 250 is number one! It topped the Nielsen “Top 30” list for shows and films that made the top ten the week of 15-June. So if you’re a UFC fan or supporter of Paramount+, that’s the good news for you this week. This program topped the ratings charts for one week. Everything else is bad news, or at least a huge caveat to that story, which I’ll explain today in the first part of this week’s Streaming Ratings Report—for the weeks of 8-June and 15-June—which is a double issue since I’ve been writing on a bunch of topics recently. UFC Freedom 250 is one of the biggest streaming events of the year, and super relevant to Paramount+’s strategy, so it merited its own article. Let’s dive in! (Reminder: The streaming ratings report focuses on the U.S. market and compiles data from Nielsen’s weekly top ten viewership ranks, Luminate’s Top Ten Data, JustWatch and Reelgood interest data, Samba TV household viewership, company datecdotes, Netflix hours viewed data, Google Trends, and IMDb to determine the most popular content. While most data points are current, Nielsen’s data covers the weeks of June 8th to June 21st 2026. You can find a link to my terminology here.) Subscribe Check Out My Interview on UFC 250 at MMA Draw After you read this article, if you want even more thoughts on UFC and Paramount-Skydance/Paramount+, I did a written interview with MMA Draw. They asked me to answer some questions about UFC Freedom 250, and I was happy to chat with them. Find it here: [ The MMA Draw Newsletter Did Paramount really overpay for the UFC? What the data tells us so far If you know the history of American television, you also know that combat sports is often a leading indicator of the future… Read more a day ago · 10 likes · 1 comment · Nate Wilcox and Zach Arnold ](https://www.themmadraw.com/p/did-paramount-really-overpay-for?utm_source=substack&utm_campaign=post_embed&utm_medium=web) I never thought I’d need a combat sports newsletter in my life, but the good folks at MMA Draw publish an excellent one on UFC, MMA, pro wrestling, boxing and more, analyzing both the sports themselves and the politics, economics and antitrust issues that impact them. Check the article and their newsletter out! Paramount+ Has Its Best Sporting Event of All Time…But Was It Worth It? Before we look at the UFC Freedom 250 data in particular, let’s talk about what we can’t say. Namely, let’s start with the lack of comparisons. First off, I’d love to put a chart out comparing this fight to past UFC fights on Paramount+…but we don’t have the data. This is the first time we’ve gotten Nielsen data about a Paramount+ UFC fight. As far as I can tell, Paramount provided data for the first fight, but it was a proprietary datecdote (saying it had “an average minute audience” of 5 million “views”) and then, for two fights, we got the linear viewership numbers when they aired on CBS, but no streaming data. Everything else was crickets. We also can’t compare this fight to other fights/combat sports on streaming, in particular the MMA and boxing, because Netflix also didn’t use Nielsen to track those events, opting for TVision and VideoAmp, respectively. (This isn’t Paramount’s fault, but does still suck.) We also can’t compare to UFC’s fights that used to be on ESPN+, since we don’t have any data for that, plus Disney+ didn’t have marquee fights. The comparisons would not be apples-to-apples. Can we compare to past Pay-Per-View fights? Absolutely not. The comparisons would absolutely NOT be apples-to-apples. That didn’t stop Paramount+, though, who bragged that their UFC events have reached drastically more people than past PPV fights. Duh. Sorry, but I gotta make this point again. A basic tenet of economics is that the cheaper something becomes, the more people consume or buy it. That’s Econ 101. (Sometimes pundits call things “Econ 101” that are actually like Econ 210 or even PhD-level economics, but no, this is really like first or second class basic economics.) Yet I still see one analytics firm consistently say that more people watch films on streaming than PVOD proves streaming which means that the streaming window is more valuable than the PVOD window. No, it’s not! Same thing here. Pay-Per-View events back in the day could be really, really, really expensive! So whole groups of people pitched in to buy them. That increased the perceived value of, say, the Mike Tyson fight. Or a UFC numbered event. So yes, the fact that Paramount+ makes numbered UFC fights essentially “free” if you’re already a Paramount+ member means consumption will go up. Obviously. Same for Netflix and their boxing matches. They’re talking about fights that used to cost consumers, in some cases, $50 in 1996…which is over $100 in today’s dollars. Over 1.6 million people paid that to watch the Tyson-Holyfield fight! Again, streaming is essentially “free”. Or $10 to $20, depending on what streamer we’re talking about and what tier you’re on. No wonder more people are “watching”. (Plus, Nielsen’s out-of-home viewing also helps these numbers.) UFC Freedom 250 Did Well…But I Have A Lot of Worries So what can we compare the fights to? Well, the good news is Nielsen put out that the fight averaged 7.0 million viewers for UFC Freedom 250, which is a solid number for a fight. We also know the length, at roughly 4 and a half hours. (I saw different run times, but this seems to be the consensus considering it started at 8 pm, had a delay and then finished after midnight on the East Coast. If you assume a shorter run time, then yes, the total hours viewed would go down.) That means I have the two numbers needed to add this to my Nielsen database. And then…I can compare this viewership to the NFL: And, uh, not great. But also within striking distance, mainly because the runtime for this event was so long. I’d also add that this event had viewership equal to a regular season NFL game on streaming, but if anything, it was more comparable to an NFL playoff or Super Bowl-esque event. And you can compare viewership to the top football games on broadcast, cable and streaming, and it’s not impressive at all: We can also compare it to other sports that week, including the NBA Finals and start of the World Cup: Again, not great. The NBA generated roughly four times as many average viewers each game for its NBA Finals. The World Cup has similarly big numbers. Also, that’s just a tiny fraction of the 25 most watched sporting events each week. The NBA, NHL and FIFA World Cup had many, many more games racking up hours. We could also compare this to other streaming programs to get an idea of “is this a good investment?” and here is how it ranks compared to other top Paramount+ programs: The worry here? Well, unlike scripted programming, which has rewatchability, older fights/sporting events have very little library value. Very, very few people are rewatching these fights, especially years from now. Paramount has also released datecdotes bragging about their subscriber numbers. Earlier this year, they claimed that the first UFC fight on Paramount+ brought in 1 million subscribers. Then, in their quarterly earnings report, they only ended up with 700K subs. Not great! They claimed they dropped lower-value international subscribers, but that’s why I tend to discount subscriber additions when they’re leaked to the press.1 I expect we may see a bump again for UFC Freedom 250, but I’d caution using subscriber growth so soon after these events to judge the success, since new subs with high churn (see Peacock) aren’t great either. Also, analysts often want to attribute all subscriber growth to their favorite/pet show, and that just doesn’t make sense. The biggest caveat for UFC Freedom 250 and Paramount’s very first UFC marquee event is that these could be high watermarks for the sport. UFC Freedom 250 had an incredible amount of earned media coverage compared to most UFC fights. I mean, it had wall-to-wall national news coverage in the lead up to the event. (The first fight also had a lot of promotion from Paramount since it was first.) Other fights could reach this bar—say the Conor McGregor return to the Octagon—but they’ll be fewer and far between. Was This Deal Worth It? All to ask: is this Paramount deal worth it? In this case, I think the UFC Freedom 250 numbers are more distracting than helpful. This fight did well and compares well to other top sporting events. But we know that the first marquee event was at least a third smaller, if Paramount’s own data is to be believed. And it’s likely the other fights are much, much, much smaller. And then you get to the paycheck that Paramount-Skydance paid. FIFA’s World Cup cost about the same for Fox, but clearly generated multiples more total viewership. (Though it’s only every four years.) The NBA is much more expensive, but until the playoffs, they likely didn’t pay for itself. Even still, Disney, NBCUniversal and Amazon Prime Video likely overpaid. So, in that context, the NBA may be an overpay that makes the UFC look not so bad. But two overpays don’t make an underpay, to paraphrase the old cliché about wrongs and rights. And looking at UFC Freedom 250 as the likely ceiling of MMA on Paramount+, Paramount-Skydance likely paid too much. Share 1 I would love regular reports on subscriber additions by programs, but as is, it’s mostly leaked or rumored in haphazard ways.
Sen. Darline Graham will seek full term to her late brother’s seat
South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster (R) appointed her last week to temporarily fill the Senate seat of her brother, Lindsey Graham.
Mason McCormick expected to play new position in 2026
The Steelers have a potential All-Pro center in Zach Frazier and two young rising offensive linemen in guard Mason McCormick and tackle Troy Fautanu.
Science center in W. Palm Beach gets $3M in state funds for expansion
Palm Beach donors have given millions to enlarge the Cox Science Center and Aquarium in West Palm Beach, which got $3 million in new state budget.
Former nonprofit business manager pleads guilty to bank fraud
The former business manager of a local nonprofit pleaded guilty to bank fraud in federal court on Tuesday.
Scarehouse partners with The Plaza at North Shore to create new Halloween destination
ScareHouse, a nationally recognized haunted attraction, is partnering with The Plaza at North Shore to launch the “Halloween Hangout” in Pittsburgh.
Gunfire near downtown entertainment district mistaken for fireworks by nearby neighbors
Downtown residents mistook the sound of rapid gunfire for late-night fireworks, waking up Sunday morning to a heavy police presence and a neighborhood cordoned off by crime scene tape.
Pittsburgh Pirates’ game postponed, doubleheader scheduled on Saturday
The Pittsburgh Pirates’ game has been postponed.
Penguins sign second-rounder Tomas Galvas
In two prior NHL drafts, all 32 teams passed on Czech defenseman
Politics Chat, July 9, 2026
In which I try to answer your questions about modern politics....
Michigan GOP governor hopefuls square off tonight in televised debate
The three men hoping to be the Republican nominee for governor will square off tonight in their first televised debate together.
Politics Chat, July 7, 2026
A newsletter about the history behind today's politics.
Frankie Grande suffers concussion after prop hits him on the stage during Broadway show
Frankie Grande suffered a gnarly set of injuries, including a concussion, after a prop hit him on stage during a routine performance of ‘Titaníque.” He stars with Deborah Cox and Jim Parsons in the Broadway musical.
Historian reflects on 250 years of American democracy, political crisis and reinvention
Historian Heather Cox Richardson sees a current, unparalleled "attempt to dismantle our democracy."
Long Reads for the Long Weekend
(Welcome to the Entertainment Strategy Guy, a newsletter on the entertainment industry and business strategy. I write a weekly Streaming Ratings Report and a bi-weekly strategy column, along with occasional deep dives into other topics, like today’s article. Please subscribe.) Happy Fourth of July weekend! As has been a tradition of mine going back to the beginning of the EntStrategyGuy website, I’m sharing my favorite long reads of the last year, like I did in 2019, 2020, 2021, 2024, and 2025. Let’s dive right in! Subscribe “Different Prices for the Same Ride: How Uber and Lyft Use AI to Get More Money Out of You“ by Derek Kravitz in Consumer Reports I don’t think surveillance pricing, like the kind described in this brilliant Consumer Reports article, is long for the world—it’s toxically unpopular—but we’ll see if either party takes on this issue. If I ran a political party focused on affordability, I would focus on a few pro-consumer and pro-market policies: Banning non-compete agreements. Ending surveillance pricing Eliminating junk fees (read more here...) Ensuring “right to repair” for consumer (and military!) products Capping excessive app store fees Stopping digital/algorithmic price-fixing tools. Preventing automatic subscription price increases. And more. If you want to fight inflation, there are a lot of great ways to do it quickly. Speaking of higher prices... “Secret Documents Show Pepsi and Walmart Colluded to Raise Food Prices Across the Economy“ by Matt Stoller in BIG Again, I think a political party should focus on lowering prices for consumers. And deals like this—Walmart making a deal/forcing Pepsi to offer the lowest prices at its stores and nowhere else—hypothetically lower prices at Walmart...but raise them everywhere else. “15 DUIs, still driving: California’s failure to take repeat drunk drivers off the road“ by Robert Lewis and Lauren Hepler in CalMatters CalMatters does terrific reporting in California, something the Golden State desperately needs more of, and this article is a great example of that. “PugLips: The next insanely popular thing you’ve never heard of…” by Simon Carless in Game Discover Co I thought that this parody article (and yes, it’s a parody, but I was definitely unsure at first) was hilarious and totally nailed how much tech/business journalism feels these days. Actually, three of my favorite articles this year were on hype in the video game industry, including Georg Zoller’s “The Video Game Industries Very Dark Night”—which I linked to recently and wrote a follow-up here—and Owen Mahoney’s “Derek Zoolander, Videogame Exec”. In particular, I like Mahoney’s focus on user experience as a guide to what trends will actually grab hold of customers. “The Matrix Lies“ by Evan Shapiro in Media War & Peace Evan Shapiro’s first person account of his experience with AI was hilarious. I think LLMs capabilities have significantly grown from last summer, and yet...my editor/researcher just had an abysmal experience using an LLM to do a quite basic task (which our LLM normally does each week) and the LLM made a mistake on every single data entry...along with seven different mistakes affecting twelve of the twenty or so entries, including mistakes that are explicitly spelled out in the prompt. That’s a brutal failure rate. Again, if you use AI/LLM for data collection, you need to take a lot of extra steps to verify and check the data. “Ghosts in the Balcony: A Cross-Country Trip to 58 Theaters Fighting to Survive“ by Matthew Frank in The Ankler I thought Matthew Frank’s pitch to head across America to visit theaters sounded insane aggressive at the time—at least it felt that way to someone a decade older than him; man, to be in your twenties again, am I right?—but I knew the result would be great. And it was, a terrific feature by a great young writer. Also, I loved Matthew’s recent article on who’s getting the precious few entry level jobs in Hollywood. (Hint: nepotism.) “Disney erased FiveThirtyEight“ and “Did Las Vegas get too greedy?” by Nate Silver in Silver Bulletin I love media history and analysis, and there’s no one better to get the history of FiveThirtyEight than from Nate Silver, who wrote about his personal experience in one of my favorite pieces from this year. I also loved Nate’s breakdown of what’s causing Vegas’ woes, but I’ll offer one criticism, summarized as “Might I suggest antitrust?” Many centrists/center-right/libertarian thinkers (Nate is self-described as the latter) often don’t consider consolidation or antitrust as factors in policy issues like housing, America’s military readiness, or, in this case, Las Vegas. Even if libertarians want to debunk antitrust/consolidation concerns, I’d love to read that debunking. In this case, Vegas is incredibly consolidated (though it also has been for a long time) and I’d have loved to read Nate at least contending with this factor, since he addresses almost every other potential factor for Vegas’ decline. “Why Microsoft’s Carbon Removal Pullback Is Such a Big Deal“ by Robinson Meyer in Heatmap News I’m a big supporter of carbon removal efforts, but this nascent industry faces a lot of headwinds, including this big move most recently. I think it’s clear that solar panels and batteries should be able to get the world to its carbon footprint goals, but effective carbon renewal remains necessary to prevent the worst impacts of global warming. “AI is killing the cheap smartphone“ by David Oks LLMs and AI will impact the world in ways we’re not ready for, and already, third world countries are seeing the prices of cheap cellphones skyrocket due to the cost of chips skyrocketing. This article by David Oks is a terrific breakdown. “100 Days of Madness: Netflix, Paramount, Warner and the Future of Hollywood“ by Wade Major at Hollywood Heretic Wade Major dove deep into Hollywood/streaming’s financials in this must read piece. Not that I agree with everything in this article (read my take on Warner Bros./Paramount here) but the analysis is top notch. I think many people discount how quality thinking, regardless of the argument/conclusion, will make you a better thinker. “Erased by the UFC: Frank Shamrock, The MMA GOAT of the 20th Century“ by Nate Wilcox in The MMA Draw Newsletter Growing up playing the UFC fighting game on the Dreamcast, Frank Shamrock was my favorite MMA fighter, and this history/tribute to him was great. Other Fun Reads “The Hardest Part Of History To Tell Is How It Felt“ by Craig Fehrman at Defector “Unmasking the Sea Star Killer“ by Craig Welch at bioGraphic “What Could Save the Industry? Fin-Syn“ by Richard Rushfield in The Ankler Alex Rollins Berg in Underexposed on movie bumpers, pillow shots, Disney trash cinema, cult films, and Casablanca. David H. Montgomery in YouGov’s The Surveyor on punctuation marks, condiments, dinosaurs, and comic strips and kids media. “How Medium finally pivoted its way to profitability“ and “Why the best journalists on YouTube are all former Vox employees“ by Simon Owens in Simon Owens’s Media Newsletter “It’s Not Just You, Netflix Shows Have Gotten Slightly Shorter: Here’s What the Data Says“ by Kasey Moore at What’s on Netflix “Numlock Awards: How Diane Warren became the biggest loser in Oscar history“ by Nathaniel Rakich and “Numlock Awards: The Oscar Bait era is over. The Oscar Chum era is here.” by Walt Hickey & Michael Domanico at Numlock Awards
UP libraries host Super Science Fest this week
Kids learned about animals, science, and art while beating the summer heat.
Magic bring back fan favorite Vucevic on one-year deal
Vucevic played nine seasons for the Magic before getting traded to Chicago.
A GOP lawmaker who owns a fireworks business urged followers to defy Utah Gov. Cox’s pyro restrictions
As Utah Gov. Spencer Cox orders statewide firework restrictions to prevent new wildfires, a GOP lawmaker — who co-owns a firework business — encouraged Utahns to go ahead with pyrotechnic celebrations anyway.
Gov. Little celebrates U.S. Supreme Court’s decision upholding protections for women’s sports
Boise, Idaho – Governor Brad Little commented today on the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision in Little v. Hecox. The ruling upholds Idaho’s ban on men participating in women’s sports. “Idaho was the very first state to ban men from participating in women’s sports with the passage of the Fairness
Supreme Court rules against trans athletes in case over sports participation
The court ruled Tuesday that Idaho and Virginia did not discriminate against runner Lindsay Hecox or high school shot-putter Becky Pepper-Jackson in barring them from playing on teams that align with their gender identity.
FIFA World Cup: England is coming to Atlanta
As the Group Stage concludes, Atlanta has more world-class soccer and excitement to look forward to.
While Isaac could still re-sign with Orlando, he will …
While Isaac could still re-sign with Orlando, he will …
Courteney Cox and Snow Patrol's Johnny McDaid separate after over 10 years together
Courteney Cox and Snow Patrol's Johnny McDaid separate after over 10 years together.
Steelers hire new special teams coach
The Pittsburgh Steelers have hired Darian Thompson as the team’s new special teams quality control coach, the team listed in a recent update.
Emily Wilcox Named Assistant Athletic Director for Sports Communications
Emily Wilcox has been named Assistant Athletic Director for Sports Communications. Her first day is slated for July 13.
Politics Chat, June 25, 2026
A newsletter about the history behind today's politics.
Making Our Own Luck
We are cross-posting a piece that former NIH official Kris Willis wrote for Macroscience. Kris is now the President and Founder of the Woodley Park Institute, for which I’m a board member. Picking winners or hedging bets? Federal science agencies have long wrestled with the question of how to ensure their billions of dollars of grants and contracts result in maximum benefits for Americans. On the surface, it might seem that a goal-oriented, interventionist style of management would be the best policy: prioritize our most pressing problems and distribute funding accordingly.This top-down strategy creates a unique hazard, though: bad choices can send resources in the wrong direction, resulting in slow progress that impedes the delivery of tangible benefits to citizens. Moreover, if decision makers pursue an applied advance when the underlying scientific principles remain poorly understood, they risk costly failures and a loss of support for the research enterprise at large. Examples include Nixon’s 1971 War on Cancer, undertaken on the premise that a cure could be achieved in less than a decade, the drive to build an operational commercial fusion plant by the mid-1990s, and the National Plan to Address Alzheimer’s Disease, which failed to produce the effective treatments and prevention strategies promised by 2025. The contrasting laissez-faire approach is to hedge your bets. If the path to an advance is impossible to predict, then the wisest choice might be to distribute funding to as widely as possible. The main risk of this strategy is that spreading funding thinly may limit the resources available to the most promising research, resulting in the same negative outcomes as the interventionist approach: limited support for the most promising topics, slow progress, and delayed returns. In reality, at science agencies like the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health, program managers navigate between these two extremes, setting some funds aside to target high-priority areas and using the rest to cover the widest possible range of meritorious proposals. This middle path seems like the most rational way to proceed, but it still requires making choices. How much should be set aside for high priority topics? What should those topics be? How should we define merit? Expert opinion can provide a helpful guide, but leading experts can have remarkably different opinions about what matters and what should be prioritized. Moreover, experts and administrators alike can be risk averse, giving an edge to high-profile, well-established concepts. What’s really needed is a data-driven framework to help guide decision-making, one that doesn’t simply repackage prestige or incumbency. Recognizing breakthroughs years in advance Many breakthroughs fail to attract funding or recognition at the earliest stages of development. Katalin Karikó, for example, spent years struggling to win grants for work on mRNA that would eventually win her and Drew Weissman a Nobel Prize. Similar stories can be told about Jim Allison’s groundbreaking studies leading to the development of cancer immunotherapy, Stan Pruisner’s demonstration that prions can self-replicate without DNA, or Robin Warren and Barry Marshall’s proof that Helicobacter pylori, not stress, causes ulcers. Yet at some point, the scientific community recognizes and responds to transformative breakthroughs like these. How does that change happen? And what if science funders could identify the areas that are on the cusp of a breakthrough? Those questions led my collaborators and me to study how scientists responded to past breakthroughs. Based on patterns in that data, we developed a means of predicting future breakthroughs, using biomedicine as a proof of concept. It’s worth taking a moment to describe how our approach works. Briefly, our prediction process begins by grouping the 18 million or so peer-reviewed papers in PubMed, the authoritative database of biomedical research, into roughly 50,000 unique topics. A small subset of these topics are so widely acclaimed as breakthroughs that they have been recognized with a major prize like a Nobel or a Lasker Award. We theorized that studying the development of these outliers over time, especially before they gained acclaim, was the key to identifying future instances of them. After defining topics, we chose 21 representative breakthroughs and asked what they looked like before they won prestigious prizes. To answer that question, we re-ran our topic-mapping algorithm repeatedly, winding back the clock one year each time, stringing together the years to follow the progress of each field as it grew and advanced. We found that in each case, the years leading up to a discovery followed a pattern: a burst of papers on a new, rapidly evolving topic, many of which quickly became influential. These characteristics—the percent of papers that are new, the percentage of papers that are brought in from other topics, and the influence of each individual paper—can all be measured separately for any given topic. Together, they act as a predictive signal that is detectable an average of five years before a transformative discovery is made, and up to thirty years before the discovery receives a major prize. Scanning the current research landscape for topics that display this signal allows us to predict what work will likely produce a future breakthrough. Each year we analyzed includes four or five signals, a number that appears to have remained constant across a twenty year time frame. In their classic work on the sociology of science, Bruno Latour and Steve Woolgar established that the desire to participate in a major discovery is an important motivator for scientists as they consider whether they should take up (or abandon) a research problem. Although further work is needed, the simplest explanation for our results is that this behavior is widespread enough to detect at scale. A foundational advance, or something like it, draws the attention of scientists and causes them to change the direction of their research. They vote with their feet, staking their own reputation and careers by publishing on and citing the new idea. That upswell of interest is the foundation of our breakthrough signal. What kind of research does our model identify as a breakthrough? After building a model based on the patterns in our 21 preselected breakthroughs, we tested it by identifying all early signals of discovery from 1994 through 1997. Of the 18 signals we found in that time period, 17 can be traced forward in time to a breakthrough. Examples include super-resolution fluorescence microscopy (see the image above), the directed evolution of proteins and enzymes (Chemistry Nobel, 2018), and sequencing the human genome (National Medal of Science, 2008). The discovery of the role of leptin signaling in obesity is a particularly interesting case study. Around 1950, scientists noticed the existence of a type of lab mouse that suffered from a unique inherited form of obesity. When given the freedom to choose their own diet, these mice ate more than normal and preferred food that was high in fat. Researchers had few clues as to why the animals overate; early experiments pointed to the existence of a soluble ob factor found circulating in the bloodstream that regulated appetite, but its identity was unknown. In 1994, Jeffrey Friedman and colleagues identified and sequenced the ob gene, noting that the protein it encoded appeared to fit the profile of a circulating factor. A year later, a trio of high-profile publications demonstrated that ob was a hormone that regulated body weight and fat deposition by regulating appetite. One of these was co-authored by Friedman, who christened it leptin from the ancient Greek word for thin. Using our model, the data from 1996 make it clear this advance would become a breakthrough. Scientists had flocked to study the biology of the new hormone, generating the flurry of new papers and citations required to produce a signal. One of these demonstrated that serum leptin concentrations reflected the amount of adipose tissue in the human body, providing clinical validation of the earlier mouse studies. Before the identification of leptin, scientists were unable to point to a specific molecule that controlled appetite and adiposity, so that it was impossible to rule out non-physiological causes of obesity; its characterization fundamentally changed our concept of weight gain. In 2010, Friedman and fellow pioneer Douglas Coleman were awarded a Lasker for the discovery. Our work also identifies breakthroughs in clinical practice and behavioral and social sciences, even though these areas are less likely to draw the attention of major prize committees. One example that falls into this category is the introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair, a minimally invasive surgical procedure for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm, a leading cause of death among Americans over the age of 65. Relative to the previous standard of care, it reduces in-hospital mortality by almost four-fold. In 2017, Timothy Chuter received the American College of Surgeons’ prestigious Jacobsen Innovation award for his multiple refinements to the technique. Another under-recognized breakthrough identified by our model is the development of standardized survey instruments to assess the quality of life for HIV+ patients. The antiretroviral cocktails introduced in the mid-1990s reduced AIDS mortality, but treatment came with serious side effects. The new evaluations showed that patients whose disease progressed had worse physical functioning than Americans with other chronic diseases, while those who were asymptomatic maintained a health-related quality of life on par with the overall US population. This evidence made it possible for patients and activists to argue that even in the absence of a total cure, and in spite of the side effects, alleviation of symptoms was a worthwhile priority for clinicians. My colleagues and I have failed to identify any significant recognition for the physicians and health policy experts who pioneered this advance, although in 2016, researchers called for the World Health Organization to set targets for good health-related quality of life as part of its framework to end the AIDS pandemic. From forecasting to funding How should science funders use our predictions? Any serious discussion of what we should do with this new capability needs to begin with an understanding of its limitations. We can’t (and shouldn’t) invest all of our resources in the small number of topics predicted to produce breakthroughs. Innovative new fields are born from existing ones; they rarely arise de novo. If funders don’t maintain a diverse portfolio, the breakthroughs of tomorrow will have no antecedents. Think of this as eating the seed corn, or killing the goose that lays the golden egg. There are also multiple goals of funding beyond basic scientific discovery, including translating discoveries into clinical practice, developing new technologies, supporting economic development, and training new scientists. The investments needed to accomplish these goals are likely different from those required to support emerging breakthroughs. Finally, we must be aware that we may not capture every instance of a breakthrough. The concept is fuzzy, and not every significant discovery is recognized with a major award. Further, breakthroughs are rare, meaning that our dataset is, by necessity, small. This makes formal estimates of accuracy challenging. Although our overall success rate appears to be high, any one signal may turn out to be a false positive. We found one apparent example: the development of the third generation COX-2 inhibitors, Vioxx and Celebrex, which were much celebrated in the early 2000s as effective but non-addictive pain relievers, meets all the algorithmic criteria of a breakthrough. Five years after it received FDA approval, researchers demonstrated that Vioxx was associated with serious cardiovascular complications, and the manufacturer voluntarily pulled the drug from the market. Celebrex remains available, although like other NSAIDs, it carries an FDA warning for increased cardiovascular risk. Decision makers who were overly focused on the breakthrough potential of this research might have wasted substantial resources nurturing an area that ultimately proved to be a failure—but so would those who relied on expert opinion at the time. That said, the potential benefits of funding the next mRNA vaccine or cancer immunotherapy years earlier than we might have are large. When we can’t assume the outcome of an action, it’s worth conducting an experiment. Can targeted support for areas that are poised to produce a breakthrough increase the return on scientific investment without cannibalizing future advances? With the necessary administrative infrastructure in place, conducting this experiment would be straightforward. First, identify all the breakthrough signals between 2018 and 2023, select half at random, and commit to a decade of investment. For biomedicine, a six year window should yield about 30 topics with the potential to produce a breakthrough. Providing strong support to half of these might be accomplished for $300 million a year. That’s roughly half of the recent annual budget of the NIH Common Fund or around 20% of the fiscal year 2025 budget for ARPA-H. After five years, then again at ten, compare to see which group — the one that was actively managed, or the control — produced more breakthroughs, and on what timescale. Although we used biomedicine as an example, the same experiment could just as well be run for physics, materials science, or any other discipline. Any attempt to undertake such an experiment should keep three points top of mind. First, we can predict the topic of future breakthroughs, but the people and vision for how to move the work forward are still important. In practice, this means success requires active program managers with the expertise to develop the science and the authority to do so, including by recruiting investigators. Second, we would be wise to learn from the failures of past attempts to fund transformative research. High among these are funding modestly repackaged work, confusing the genuinely novel with the merely unfamiliar, and relying too much on incumbent investigators. All of these risks can be mitigated by thoroughly and intelligently integrating high quality data into portfolio management. Finally, we need to have patience. Even with strong funding support, producing a breakthrough takes time. If supporting breakthroughs is the best way to nurture the birth of new fields, we also need to accurately describe and properly manage the other two stages, so that we invest wisely throughout the productive lifetime of ideas and divest once they reach the point of diminishing returns. We would benefit from more study of all of these phases, especially the transition from one to another. More research could answer questions like: When does a breakthrough become an established field? How do the availability of funding, the size and characteristics of the available workforce, and the accumulation of evidence that disagrees with prevailing models affect a field’s decline? Exactly how do old ideas give birth to new ones, and can we speed up the process? The more we understand about the dynamics of scientific progress, the better we can maximize the odds that our curiosity leads to results. I’d call that finding a way to make our own luck.
Politics Chat, June 18, 2026
A newsletter about the history behind today's politics.
Angel Reese, Dream hold off Fever comeback for 108-101 win despite 26 points from Caitlin Clark, Kelsey Mitchell
Politics Chat, June 16, 2026
A newsletter about the history behind today's politics.
‘Sadly, things are worse,’ says sister of MP Jo Cox 10 years after her murder
Kim Leadbeater, now an MP, and fellow politicians fear that ‘kinder, gentler politics’ after Cox’s death was an illusion
Politics Chat, June 11, 2026
A newsletter about the history behind today's politics.
Pirates overcome huge deficit to down Dodgers, snap skid
Tyler Callihan belted two home runs for the Pittsburgh Pirates, who erased a five-run deficit to defeat the Los Angeles Dodgers 9-8 and snap a four-game losing streak at PNC Park on Wednesday night.
Politics Chat, June 9, 2026
A newsletter about the history behind today's politics.
'The View' cohost grills Laverne Cox on dating pro-Trump policeman: 'Didn't plan to fall in love'
Laverne Cox responded to 'The View' cohost and former Donald Trump staffer Alyssa Farah Griffin grilling her on dating a pro-Trump police officer: 'People show you who they are eventually,' Cox said.
Texas Health Resources, JPS leaders appointed to Gov. Abbott's Council on Cardiovascular Disease and Stroke
Governor Greg Abbott appointed Christine Cox and Brittany Henson and reappointed Remedios “Remmy” Perez Morris to the Council on Cardiovascular Disease
The one tool small businesses shouldn’t overlook this year
Business-grade managed WiFi is an essential tool and one that small businesses should not overlook. Cox WiFi offers reliable and secure solutions.
Lowell Spinners host Johnny Damon celebration
As the Lowell Spinners continue to celebrate their comeback season, Saturday night they brought in a legend from the comeback Red Sox team, Johnny Damon.
Storms suspend third round of 2026 Memorial Tournament
Storms suspended third-round play of the 2026 Memorial Tournament in Dublin, Ohio.
Expect the unexpected: “Big Brother Canada” is being revived with new host
The show previously ran for 12 seasons with Arisa Cox as host.
UD men’s basketball announces some 2026-27 non-conference opponents
The University of Dayton men’s basketball team has announced some of its non-conference opponents for the upcoming season.
Another year, another Va. retail cannabis market veto leaves businesses, the public with few options
By Yiqing Wang and Toby Cox/WHRO Throughout her bid for governor, Gov. Abigail Spanberger said she would support a bill to set up a legal, adult-use cannabis market — which is why her veto on May 19 c...
Pirates power past Astros for 4th Sstraight win
This is the first time the Pirates have won a game started by Bubba Chandler since April 17 against the Tampa Bay Rays.
Politics Chat, June 2, 2026
A newsletter about the history behind today's politics.
Customers out thousands of dollars after Central Florida business takes money and closes
A Titusville homeowner says she lost $5,000 after American Made Windows of Central Florida closed its doors before completing a promised sliding glass door installation.
How the Brewers Crushed the Giants
The Milwaukee Brewers' offense could not be stopped on Monday night.
WPBF First Warning meteorologists host event at Cox Science Center and Aquarium
Meet the Mets, Junior Weather Watchers took place in West Palm Beach.
Politics Chat, May 26, 2026
A newsletter about the history behind today's politics.
Steelers re-sign veteran defensive lineman after devastating 2025 injury
The Pittsburgh Steelers have signed defensive lineman Dean Lowry to a one-year contract.
Ocean Springs sees business growth, infrastructure improvements
Ocean Springs is experiencing business growth and improved infrastructure projects across the city, Mayor Bobby Cox said.
WPBF 25 Junior Weather Watchers event coming to Cox Science Center on May 30
The WPBF 25 First Warning Weather Team will host a free Junior Weather Watchers event on May 30 at the Cox Science Center and Aquarium, featuring weather activities and certificates for kids.
The Atlantic Ocean Was Hiding a Massive Freshwater Reservoir Big Enough to Supply NYC for 800 Years
Scientists have discovered a massive freshwater reservoir buried beneath the Atlantic Ocean, stretching from New Jersey to Maine — and early estimates suggest it could hold enough water to supply New York City for nearly 800 years. Researchers believe the reservoir dates back to the last ice age, though it could take years to determine whether the water can — or should — ever be tapped.
Theater at Woodshill celebrates 10 years of Shakespeare
SAUQUOIT — When Allen Guy Wilcox talks about The Theater at Woodshill, he talks about connecting: Connecting with the audience. Connecting with the community. And most importantly, connecting with Shakespeare.
Lego exhibit opens at Cox Science Center and Aquarium
Families can explore a new exhibit at the Cox Science Center and Aquarium in West Palm Beach this weekend.
Visiting Voices: Spencer Cox and Jake Auchincloss, Cherelle Parker, Ken Burns, and more
Throughout the academic year, dozens of public figures from the worlds of politics, civil society, and academia speak at the John F. Kennedy Jr. Forum, part of Harvard Kennedy School’s Institute of Politics. Read what some of them had to say.
Albany police chief responds to racial profiling allegation from council member
Police Chief Brendan Cox on Thursday shared body-camera video of a traffic stop.
South Side moves to establish funded business district for East Carson Street
The South Side is working to reestablish a funded community organization to focus on maintaining and improving its East Carson Street business district.
Crush Yard combines pickleball, food, and entertainment in Central Florida
Discover Crush Yard, the ultimate indoor eatertainment venue in Central Florida. Enjoy pickleball, food, drinks, and entertainment all in one place.
Teen curfew at Camp North End is impacting business, store owners say
Some store owners at Camp North End say the teen curfew is hurting business.
Channel 9 Sports Director Alex Walker goes 1-on-1 with Florida head football coach Jon Sumrall
Channel 9 Sports Director Alex Walker goes 1-on-1 with Florida head football coach Jon Sumrall
Orlando Science Center’s Science Night Live returns with illusions and games
Orlando Science Center's adults-only Science Night Live event returns with optical illusions, board games, trivia, and more. Don't miss out!
Former Gov. Christine Gregoire blasts WA Democrats’ tax strategy, warns businesses will leave state
Former Washington Gov. Christine Gregoire is publicly breaking with many fellow Democrats over the state’s tax-and-spending strategy, warning lawmakers they risk driving businesses and wealthy residen...
Local nonprofit hosts expo to celebrate Small Business Week
The nonprofit Aspire Community Capital wrapped up its celebration of Small Business Week with an expo at West Charlotte High School.
I-285 shutdown impacts SW Atlanta businesses during construction project: ‘It’s been very slow’
GDOT shut down a two-mile stretch of I-285 in both directions between Martin Luther King Jr. Drive and Cascade Road from Friday night through Monday morning.
HOMETOWN ENTERTAINMENT: Jacoozy among the On the Rise Contenders at FloydFest 26-Daydream
The jam-rock band from North Carolina is set to perform at FloydFest on July 24.
See renderings of renovated Cox Science Center & Aquarium in West Palm
The Cox Science Center & Aquarium will expand after its renovation is complete. Here's a sneak peak of what the renovation will look like.
The State of Rural Hospitals in the U.S, 2012-2023
ASPE’s Office of Health Policy has developed an Issue Brief modeling the key determinants of rural hospital closure or conversion as well as an interactive Rural Hospital Dashboard to highlight key characteristics and trends among rural hospitals. The Issue Brief uses a Cox proportional hazards model to identify low occupancy rates, for-profit ownership and proximity to an urban county as key determinants of closure or conversion to outpatient only facilities.
Politics Chat, May 14, 2026
A newsletter about the history behind today's politics.
Paramount's Keith Cox to Exit MTV Entertainment Studios
After 20 years with Paramount brands, MTV Entertainment Studios president Keith Cox is stepping down from his position.
Rooney weighs in on Steelers playing Saints in Paris
The NFL officially announced on Wednesday that the Pittsburgh Steelers will play the New Orleans Saints in Paris on Oct. 25.
Atlanta Braves first team to reach 30 wins this season
The Braves improved MLB’s top record to 30-13 with another thrilling win Wednesday night, scoring three runs in the eighth inning to beat the Chicago Cubs 4-1.