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Zambia: Arrests and detention of political opponents following election raises concern
In the wake of President Hakainde Hichilema of Zambia’s re-election for a second five-year term, UN human rights chief has raised concerns over the reported arrests and detention of political opponents in the country.
Sea Aggie Researchers Make Evening Fun with Science on the Beach
“The environment is where we all meet; where we all have a mutual interest; it’s the one thing all of us share.” – Lady Bird JohnsonOn Galveston Island, beaches rank among the favorite environments to share and study, and, as Texas A&M University at Galveston faculty emphasized last week, are “More Than Just Sand.”A program subtitled “The Secret Life & Value of Sandy Beaches” drew more than 40 people to the Aug. 13 meeting of Surfrider Foundation Galveston, a local chapter of a nonprofit focused on the protection and enjoyment of oceans and beaches.The evening began barefoot with ecology lessons on the sand before moving across Seawall Boulevard for beverages, bites, and more beach talk at an area establishment. Drs. Guilherme Corte and Yasmina Shah Esmaeili show how a mesh bag is used as a sieve to separate organisms from samples of the sand. Credit: TAMUG Divisions of Marketing and CommunicationsNot far from where others were enjoying the attractions at Pleasure Pier, Drs. Guilherme Corte and Yasmina Shah Esmaeili introduced the ecologically curious to species living within the sediments.“When people hear ‘coral reefs,’ they immediately think of fish, live ecosystems, but when they think of sandy beaches, they think party, recreation, vacations – not coastal ecosystems,” said Corte, an assistant professor of marine biology in the College of Marine Sciences and Maritime Studies at TAMUG.Shah Esmaeili co-founded the Gulf eDNA Network and works with Corte in TAMUG’s Benthic Ecology Lab.“Sandy beaches are indeed great places for leisure and recreation,” Corte said. “Let’s keep enjoying them, because they are awesome. But they are also full of life that we most of the time don’t realize is there.”The married couple soon had the beachcombers measuring the slope with PVC poles, searching for ghost shrimp with a stainless-steel pump, sifting for marine worms and sand fleas, and guessing which species would burrow fastest back into the sand once released.Away from the sand, the focus turned to research from Drs. Ashley Ross ’03, ’10, and Virgie Greb, ’25 and those words from Lady Bird Johnson reminding people that the environment isn’t separate from their daily lives.“It’s about things that we value, mostly our communities, strong local economies, outdoor recreation, cultural connections, and our overall quality of life,” said Greb, a proud BOI – born on the island – Galvestonian, who now works in Austin as a project manager for the Texas General Land Office. “Along our coast, these benefits are deeply interconnected.”Greb and Ross, an associate professor in marine and coastal environmental science with the College of Marine Sciences & Maritime Studies, have studied a variety of ways beaches and the sea are important to Galveston and those who live there. Drs. Ashley Ross (left) and Virgie Greb (standing at right) field questions after their presentation. Credit: TAMUG Division of Marketing and CommunicationsIn 2023, using three survey methods – online for Galveston County residents, in-person at beaches, and paper distributed via city water bills – they collected 732 complete responses, 53 percent from residents and 47 percent from visitors.Most were frequent beachgoers who gave the recreation value of Galveston beaches a “B” and rated amenities such as restaurants, lodging, shopping, and beach access highly. Lower rated were water clarity and restroom facilities.“It’s noticeable that primary residents actually rate water quality higher; they’re more tolerant of hard, turbid water,” Ross said, crediting them with better understanding the natural conditions with the Trinity and San Jacinto Rivers bringing sediments and rich nutrients to the area around Galveston.Island residents also were more likely to understand that “clear” isn’t the same as clean beach water and to know that water quality is regularly tested. Clean means absent of disease-causing pathogens.“We need more education and outreach focused on water quality and the benefits of Galveston beaches and shores and water,” Greb said. “And it’s not just for tourism. There are a lot of people who are very lucky to live on an island with beaches and the bay.”
The DNA of the 2026 Missouri Football Tigers
The demographics of the 2026 team. Because I find that interesting.
Swope Health serves KC’s neediest. Its CEO faces troubling allegations
Lawsuits accuse CEO Jeron Ravin of reckless spending and retaliation against employees who raised concerns. From David Hudnall:
Scientists turn DNA into a memory device that uses 100x less power
Researchers combined synthetic DNA with a semiconductor to create an ultra-low-power memory device capable of storing and processing information in the same place. The bio-hybrid technology could eventually help make AI systems and next-generation computers far more energy efficient.
MLK Observance Day Association holds annual Business and Community Unity Luncheon
The annual MLK Business and Community Unity Luncheon was held in Savannah Saturday.
Ben Affleck is running for mayor of L.A. when his son is kidnapped in ‘Animals’ teaser
Ben Affleck plays a man running for Los Angeles mayor whose son is kidnapped in the first teaser for ‘Animals.’ The thriller also stars Kerry Washington, Gillian Anderson, Steven Yeun, and more.
Weird Science: Flush with data, North Carolina sewage is exposing community nutrition and food insecurity
A newly published study has successfully demonstrated that analyzing residual plant and animal DNA in municipal wastewater can deliver accurate, real-time population nutrition data. Researchers say this breakthrough could fundamentally change how public health officials monitor dietary habits, food insecurity, and economic health.
Phil LeVota’s indictment tells us a lot about Jackson County politics
The most nauseating thing is how the county executive talks when the rest of us aren’t listening. From David Hudnall:
Fenway Sports Group adding women’s TGL team alongside Boston Common Golf
The league plays a high-tech, indoor version of golf that features teams of top players from the PGA and LPGA tours.
Mirror cells could threaten life on Earth. Why are we building them?
For people with two hands, one is usually dominant. On a molecular level, earthly life takes this to the extreme. All of the DNA in living things twists to the right, whereas the protein building blocks favor a kind of left-handed chemistry.The rules of life are based on this chemistry.In recent years, scientists have worked toward a kind of mirror version of life. Currently, the technology doesn't exist to make mirror life at the cellular level — and likely won't for at least a decade. Still, a group of scientists is concerned enough about the possibility that they've published a 299-page technical report calling for a stop to the science.In this encore episode for our Tech Camp series, host Regina Barber talks to Carl Zimmer, a science reporter at The New York Times, about his reporting on mirror cells — and why creating them could lead to devastating consequences for life on Earth.Check out Carl's full article.Curious about other controversial research? Email us at shortwave@npr.org.Support public media with NPR+ and enjoy perks for over 25 podcasts like this one. This show’s perks include sponsor-free listening. Learn more at plus.npr.org.
AMD FSR 4.1 costs RX 7800 XT up to 10% performance versus FSR 3.1
ComputerBase tested FSR 4.1 against FSR 3.1 on the RX 7800 XT and RX 7600. Performance drops by around 7-10%, depending on resolution.
There's a hidden world beneath Ontario's rivers — and it's disappearing
Scientists are uncovering the creatures that live in our rivers with techniques like electrofishing and DNA sampling. Here's what they're finding, from mottled sculpins to mayfly nymphs, and why they say we need to know our underwater neighbours.
Tigers vs Giants Highlights ⚾ MLB on FOX
Check out the best highlights between the Detroit Tigers and the San Francisco Giants.
Nigerian governor details victims' health after government rescues hundreds from jihadi kidnappings
AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq, the governor of Nigeria's Kwara State, says the country is still assessing victims' health after Nigerian forces rescued hundreds of women and children after six months in jihadi captivity. Credit: Associated Press
In 1934, scientists heard reports of mushrooms causing visions of tiny people; in 2026, DNA linked the phenomenon to one species in China and the Philippines
In 1934, Western scientists first heard reports from Papua New Guinea of wild mushrooms causing visions of tiny people, a phenomenon called "mushroom madness." Nearly a century later, DNA sequencing has confirmed that a single, identical mushroom species causes these same hallucinations in communities thousands of miles apart in China and the Philippines.
Scientists Trained An AI Model In DNA—And It Invented 16 New Viruses
Scientists are worried about how smart DNA-trained artificial intelligence models could get—and that they could become a weapon in biological warfare.
This A.I. Just Created Viruses Not Found in Nature
Scientists trained artificial intelligence on libraries of DNA and then asked the model to create recipes for viral genomes. Sixteen of them were viable, yielding new viruses.
Scientists identify mushroom behind ‘tiny people’ hallucinations
DNA sequencing links independent reports of ‘Lilliputian’ hallucinations to a single mushroom species—one with no previously identified psychoactive compounds, suggesting the presence of a new...
Strange DNA Structures Found in The Human Genome Go Beyond The Double Helix
“We now have a complete picture."
Strange DNA Structures Found in The Human Genome Go Beyond The Double Helix
“We now have a complete picture."
Team's AI agent to speed Alzheimer's treatment
Vanderbilt researchers have received a grant to build an AI tool within the health record system to get patients with Alzheimer's disease to treatment faster.
Untold Sports Documentary Series Returns with Vince Young, Raygun, and Mr. T
Acclaimed docuseries highlights college football legend, viral Olympic breakdancer, and cultural icon.
You're Not Imagining It – Some People Really Are More Attractive to Mosquitoes, Study Shows
There’s something about you.
Acoustirats and Jordan Lauterbach to Perform at LI Music & Entertainment Hall of Fame on Aug 23rd
As part of the Long Island Music and Entertainment Hall of Fame Soundtrack to Summer Series, the band Acoustirats will perform LIVE music and Comedian Jordan Lauterbach will open with comedy set at the Long Island Music and Entertainment Hall of Fame in Stony Brook Village (97 Main Street, Stony Brook, NY) on Aug. 23th from 3-4pm. The event is free for members or with general admission ticket purchase or $10 at the door concert ticket purchase. For details on this and upcoming events please visit https://www.limusichalloffame.... About AcoustiRats AcoustiRats is an acoustic duo dedicated to stripping Good Rats classics down to their raw, essential form. Fronted by Stefan Marchello, lead singer and 36-year veteran of the Good Rats, alongside guitarist Matt McCarthy, who also did a run on guitar with the band. Between them, they've got decades of Good Rats DNA in their blood. After years of playing these songs loud and electric, Stefan and Matt are thrilled to break them down to the bare bones. No frills, no amps cranked to 11 — just voice, acoustic guitar, and the songwriting that made the Good Rats legendary. It's the same attitude and stories fans know, delivered in a raw, intimate format. For diehard Good Rats fans, it's a new way to hear the classics. For first-timers, it's proof that great songwriting doesn't need to be loud to hit hard. About Jordan Lauterbach Jordan Lauterbach is a fast-rising comedian who features prominently in clubs around the country. His autobiographical style and supreme wit keep audiences laughing for hours after they leave the club. Lauterbach is likable, relatable, and tremendously funny. He has opened for some of comedy's best and is quickly carving out an audience of his own.
Chino Hills Murder-Kidnapping Tied to Business Dispute, Officials Say
The execution-style killing last week stunned the city of Chino Hills, an upper-middle-class community roughly 35 miles east of downtown Los Angeles.
If Not AOC, Then Who?
What do we do if Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez decides not to run for president in 2028? It makes sense that many leftists are currently focused on calling on her to take the plunge. But the absence of a Plan B, or even much discussion about one, is worrisome. The US Left can’t afford to sit out the 2028 Democratic primary. Doing so in 2024 was a disaster: our abstention self-marginalized anti-billionaire politics from the national conversation and thereby gave space for Harris to pivot to the “center” (i.e. the policy preferences of corporate donors, establishment hacks, and AIPAC). Abstaining again in 2028 would be especially counterproductive since democratic socialists now have so much wind in our sails after our big electoral wins in NYC and across the country. It’s time to deepen our momentum, organization, and profile — not to retreat to the margins during America’s single most important political battle. Even more urgently, keeping Trump’s heir out of the White House may depend on whether leftists and the party’s unprecedentedly disenchanted base can force the Democrats in 2028 to take meaningful steps towards a very angry electorate and away from the corporate-consultant blob that has helped get us into this mess. If AOC (or Abdul El-Sayed) decides to run, we should enthusiastically go all in — DSA, fighting unions, progressive organizations, anybody who wants to see a better country and world. But, as far as I can tell from the outside, there’s a real chance that she doesn’t run. And we can’t just wait and see where she lands before discussing alternatives, since AOC’s decision might not come for quite a while, giving us little time to scramble at the last minute for an alternative. So we should start working now on getting a Plan B into motion, and recruiting a good candidate for the role. Here’s one idea. A Worker Candidate — Healthcare Not Warfare 2028 Run a union worker Leftists don’t need to always run experienced, well-known socialist politicians for high-profile contests. Lula, the current president of Brazil, began his political career as a metalworker militant who ran for governor of São Paulo in 1982. Especially in an era of institutional distrust, it’s possible to lean hard into making a virtue out of a working-class comrade’s distance from traditional politics. Experience abroad shows this clearly. Rachel Kéké — an immigrant hotel housekeeper — ran as the candidate of the leftist La France Insoumise for the National Assembly in 2022, defeating a former minister in the Macron government. The Belgian Workers’ Party in 2024 won its first Flemish seat in the European Parliament by running Rudi Kennes, a three-decade veteran of the Opel Antwerp auto factory. And the South Korean left in 2024 elected auto factory militant Yoon Jong-oh to the National Assembly. If a tiny French Trotskyist organization could make such a big splash in 2002 and 2007 by running a well-spoken postal worker cadre for office — the LCR’s Olivier Besancenot received about 1.5 million first-round votes — it’s not far-fetched to expect that a much larger organization like DSA, together with a broader coalition of the willing, could run this playbook to much greater effect. This is especially the case now that almost everything DSA does immediately becomes a national news story. We don’t need someone famous. We just need a charismatic, well-vetted comrade who works in a relatable working-class occupation — e.g. a nurse, or a worker in auto or construction, or at Amazon. Ideally, they have a compelling personal story or have been part of a significant strike or organizing campaign, but even those criteria don’t necessarily have to be deal-breakers. The main lesson of the Graham Platner fiasco isn’t that we should never run outsiders for office (the momentum he generated proves the exact opposite), but that they need proper vetting and roots in democratic membership organizations like DSA or a union. In any case, there are plenty of ways to signal working-class authenticity without resorting to Platner’s or Fetterman’s performative macho white dude affect. Better to have someone of any gender or race who is actually working class, with firm socialist politics, who can speak from experience about the day-to-day realities of trying to make it in America. There are surely at least a dozen such worker leaders in our movement nationwide; we just need to sit down and convince one that their personal sacrifice for the greater good (i.e. running for president) will be worth it. If we don’t have a frontrunner with a clear path to victory like AOC (or El-Sayed, were he to win Michigan), it’s better to embrace someone whose decision to run in itself tells an important story about US politics: workers have been iced out of our political system and are now fighting hard to break back in. The novelty factor, in itself, would generate press. And it would help democratic socialists signal to the American public that our movement’s defining characteristic is that we represent workers vs. bosses, not that we’re “the furthest left” force in American politics — a framework that suggests we’re extremists and that helps our opponents isolate us from non-college-educated voters by highlighting extremely minoritarian (and misguided) stances included in DSA’s platform like prison abolition. We don’t get many opportunities to speak to tens of millions of Americans; we need to use these opportunities to broaden our appeal beyond those already in our orbit. Run to polarize the 2028 primary and general election around “Medicare for All” and “End All Aid to Israel” Why should democratic socialists use our scarce time and volunteer energy to run in a race we’re unlikely to win? Running in the 2028 primary will not only recruit us scores of members (imagine having a DSA member intervening in eleven nationally televised primary debates!), but — more importantly — it has the potential to be a decisive leap forward towards an America that finally starts meeting the needs of working people instead of HMO and AIPAC billionaire donors. Polarizing litmus tests are good, actually — as long as they’re fought for around popular demands in a thoughtful and strategic way. Democratic socialists have an opportunity and responsibility to make the 2028 primary about two of the most widely and deeply felt issues of our moment: domestically, America’s unaffordable, family-breaking private healthcare system; internationally, America’s bankrolling of the genocidal Israeli government. A candidacy relentlessly demanding Medicare for All and No Aid to Israel would pose a sharp question to the American public, the Democratic Party, and other 2028 contenders: Why can’t working-class Americans afford their healthcare bills at the same time that our government is spending at least $3.8 billion yearly to fund an Israeli regime eager to keep dragging us and the world into more forever wars? Our candidate can agitate around a clear message: I’m running to give voice to all those working-class Americans who are struggling to get by. No matter what state you live in, who you voted for in 2024, or your background, it’s just plain common sense that we should make healthcare more affordable instead of spending billions to enable the Israeli government’s crimes against humanity. Every American who agrees with me when I say ‘Medicare for All — Not a Dime for Israel’ should make their voice heard through our campaign. Racking up a high number of votes for this agenda is a crucial way to show the Democratic Party and the country as a whole that we can’t keep supporting a life-destroying status quo in our healthcare system and in the Middle East. If we want to defeat Trump’s handpicked crony this coming November, we need to speak to ordinary people’s frustrations with the status quo — we can’t keep running the same tired establishment playbook and expecting a different result. For those highly engaged voters (or skeptical media pundits) who raise concerns about wasting votes, the candidate can take the time to explain why this isn’t the case: It's true I'm a long shot. But Zohran showed anything can happen — and voting for me is a pragmatic decision, not a wasted vote. In a heavily divided primary with a large number of candidates and a very discredited establishment, my campaign and the democratic socialist movement I’m part of are positioned to be the balance of power if we can get a large enough number of voters to loudly demand Healthcare Not Warfare. Since there’s a high chance no candidate will get to 50% in the 2028 primaries, the Democrats could very well be heading towards a brokered convention, where a disciplined, principled current committed to breaking from corporate donors can play an outsized role in making sure whoever ends up with the nomination raises the banner of single-payer healthcare and cutting aid to Israel. How exactly could running this sort of primary campaign be translated into actual leverage? The candidate replies: I’m aiming to win the nomination, but if I don’t achieve that goal, my delegates and I will pledge our support in the primary only for a candidate who agrees in the general election to call for ending US aid to Israel and establishing Medicare for All at home. These are both winning planks for November against the Republicans, and the only reason I can see that other candidates haven’t yet raised these is that they’re still more scared of the donor class than they are of the people. That needs to change. If Democratic leaders want young people, workers, and those sick of the status quo to show up in big numbers this November, they need to meet us halfway. In this way, whether or not we win the nomination, democratic socialists could still play a decisive role in 2028. The approach outlined here is similar to what radical left parties periodically do in parliamentary democracies like Denmark or Sweden when they find themselves as a junior partner electorally: they dictate to center-left allies what their terms would be for enabling, from the outside, the formation of a new government. Running a Healthcare Not Warfare candidate will make it significantly more likely that the 2028 Democratic candidate stands with ordinary people instead of donors on these two pivotal planks — a shift that will, in turn, make it easier to achieve the existentially important task of defeating MAGA’s heir in November. Look at how much popular traction the Uncommitted movement got with a similar strategy in 2024 with so little on-the-ground organization — surely we can go much further with a working-class candidate, a much bigger DSA, and a Democratic Party base that has turned against Israel, billionaires, and the hacks in the party who prop them up. Objections and Responses There are quite a few objections to this proposal, many of which are very reasonable. Let me briefly address each here. Socialists shouldn’t waste their scarce time and resources on a candidate unlikely to win. This is a good rule in general, but there are important exceptions, and presidential elections are the main one. There’s no other political contest that gets anything like this level of attention and engagement in the US, so if you want to be a serious force in nationwide politics, you basically can’t afford not to have a candidate. Far from being an overall drain on our resources, running a dynamic 2028 campaign would likely result in a major net increase in members and capacity. In that spirit, the very pragmatic Milwaukee sewer socialists — who mostly ran to win at home in Wisconsin — supported Eugene Debs’s propagandistic presidential campaigns, which they correctly saw as a crucial means of recruiting to the Socialist Party. And now that the (post-1972) Democratic Party gives more weight to voters than party operatives in determining its presidential nomination, it’s become feasible to run as a socialist in primaries without risking a split in the vote against the Republicans in November. We should just support Ro Khanna, who also supports M4A and ending aid to Israel. I like Ro Khanna and would enthusiastically vote and canvass for him for president were he to get the nomination. But there’s a real chance that Khanna’s bid for office doesn’t catch on; he lacks the grassroots organizational apparatus of DSA, and, because he’s not really of the Left or labor (despite his current very good positions), he’s unlikely to generate the type of buy-in and enthusiasm that a DSA candidate would. Moreover, Khanna would be running as an individual, not as someone emerging from and building an organized movement — his campaign would not likely focus on building sustained power from below, nor would it likely polarize the 2028 primary around M4A and Israel aid. Also, and not inconsequentially, the poor electoral results for Tom Steyer and Saikat Chakrabarti this spring suggest that there’s perhaps not much of a popular appetite in the Democrats’ base to support multi-millionaire class traitors. Much better, then, to run a democratic socialist worker. If by Super Tuesday it’s clear that our campaign has captured the main left lane in the primary, Khanna should drop out and endorse us; conversely, if he’s managed to capture this lane, DSA could at that point transform its Healthcare Not Warfare campaign into an independent campaign to elect Ro Khanna focused on winning (and holding him accountable to) those two critical planks. An openness to consolidating an anti-corporate candidate by Super Tuesday is a necessary component of the strategy I’m proposing, because otherwise we risk splitting the primary votes (per DNC rules, you need at least 15% to get any delegates to convention). We should convince Shawn Fain or Sara Nelson to run for president instead. I agree it’d be great if either ran for president, but my impression is that there’s basically no chance that will happen in 2028, because both are firmly focused on their union leadership duties (and, in the case of Fain, beating back a federal witch-hunt). This plan could have DSA end up endorsing a non-socialist, non-DSAer for president. That’s against our principles. It’s a myth, and bad politics, that socialists can’t ever support candidates who aren’t members of their organization and/or who don’t call themselves socialists. Bernie, after all, was not a DSAer. And socialists abroad regularly make tactical decisions about if and when supporting a non-socialist candidate makes sense from the standpoint of promoting working-class interests, defending democracy, and building a socialist current in the process. If your “principles” prevent you and DSA from helping achieve the momentous stride forward of having a Democratic candidate in 2028 run on Medicare for All and ending aid to Israel, those “principles” are not very good. In fact, they actively undermine the causes they’re aiming to support. We shouldn’t confuse principles (working-class independence) with tactics (the best way to advance this in a given context). In my recent article in Catalyst on Milwaukee sewer socialism (I’ve uploaded the full text here), I have a section showing how similarly rigid rules about endorsements had to be eventually discarded in the old Socialist Party nationwide after WWI because they tended to lead socialists towards a sectarian abstention from broader anti-corporate electoral insurgencies beyond their party’s control. For what it’s worth, Lenin’s current under Tsarism frequently backed bourgeois candidates in the second round of elections and Lenin himself advocated that British Communists support Labour Party candidates; for his part, Kautsky in 1912 defended the German Social Democracy’s electoral pact with the Progressives in the runoffs. If our predecessors could be that tactically flexible in an era before the limits of their underlying strategic assumptions about intransigent class politics in capitalist democracies were made clear, then there’s no need to insist on being more tactically rigid today, after a century’s worth of accumulated experience. As long as you maintain your own political profile and organization while engaging in broader coalitional efforts, there’s zero inherent contradiction with the principle of political independence. More specifically: DSA and allied organizations should enthusiastically back Michigan’s Abdul El-Sayed if AOC declines to run and he throws his hat in the presidential ring. (I have no idea whether he’s even considering this path, but there’ll surely be chatter about it if he wins his Senate race this November.) Though he doesn’t call himself a socialist, El-Sayed is a principled Berniecrat, a consistent fighter for Palestine, and would have a clear path to victory. Using the “s” word is far less important than whether a campaign fights for the interests of working people at home and abroad — and whether actively participating in it can grow the organized working class and the Left. And the same holds true if a less anti-corporate candidate were, under pressure, to adopt our two Healthcare Not Warfare planks. Why focus only on M4A and ending US aid to Israel? There are so many other important issues to fight for! Obviously there are many pivotal issues beyond healthcare and Israel, and our candidate — and especially our organizations involved in the campaign — should be prepared to speak on all of these. But one of the crucial lessons of the Zohran campaign is that you have to relentlessly stay on message if you want to cut through the noise. CNN and Fox News will want to talk about DSA’s views on Venezuela and abolishing the police; we need to polarize the debate on the widely and deeply felt issues that are most favorable for growing the Left, isolating our opponents, and winning urgently needed changes. One recent poll found 63% of Americans support M4A, even after respondents were told it would raise taxes and eliminate most private insurance. Another found that 74% of Democrats opposed “providing additional economic and military support to Israel.” And focusing on two demands sets the campaign up to be able to leverage its mandate to make clear demands upon other candidates (which we can’t do if we run with a laundry list of demands). Talking about a Plan B is a distraction from the more urgent work of building a groundswell of calls on AOC to run. It’s good for DSAers, fightback unionists, and progressive organizations to try to convince AOC to run. This proposal is meant as an addendum to pushes to get AOC to run and to line DSA up for that eventuality, not as a substitute for those efforts. But I’m worried that, like in 2024, we might eventually find ourselves with no time to find a viable alternative unless we start now. DSA, with its abundant deliberative processes, moves slowly. The approach you’re suggesting seems risky. If a DSA candidate runs but doesn’t receive a lot of votes, it’ll undercut our current national momentum. This is a reasonable worry. All big initiatives always carry risks, and the path I’m advocating is certainly not free of these. That said, if a Healthcare Not Warfare campaign doesn’t catch on like we envisioned, it’s a pretty simple pivot in March 2028 to explain that in the future we really need our standard-bearers like AOC, or our growing bench of national electeds, to step up in presidential primaries. Moreover, it’s worth noting that the risk of my Plan B proposal is on the whole significantly less than the risk entailed by an AOC run. We should all back her if she runs, since she’d fire up the base, provide huge openings for organizing, have a real shot at defeating a Republican (especially given MAGA’s unpopularity), be a great standard-bearer for our issues, particularly M4A and ending aid to Israel, and be less willing than mainstream candidates to capitulate to any anti-democratic machinations from Trump and co. But it’s also true that AOC could lose, which would be a devastating setback to the country and the Left. Or she could win and find herself unable to pass much, if any, of her (and our) program, a demoralizing prospect. So if we’re willing to take these risks with AOC (and we should), it follows that we should be able to take lower-level risks if she doesn’t throw her hat in the ring. What’s Your Plan B? The US Left is facing its biggest opening for growth and influence since the 1930s. Initiatives that would have been impossible a few months ago are now potentially feasible. A President AOC is now easier to imagine, but if she ultimately assesses that the risks aren’t worth the potential reward in 2028, we can’t be left flat-footed. So even if you’re not convinced by the specifics of my Plan B, I hope you can at least agree that it’d be a disaster for us not to have one — and not to start getting a Plan B into motion. Hopefully other organizers and political currents will put forward their responses and alternative ideas ASAP. The stakes are too high to just wait and see. More As always, please share this article widely. This newsletter depends on all you lovely people to get the word out. Thank you! I uploaded the full text of my Catalyst article on Milwaukee sewer socialism here (it’s updated and 3x as long as the version published earlier on this substack). If you haven’t yet, please make sure to subscribe to Catalyst here; I read every issue front to back, highly recommend. 🌹🎵 Ivan Lins (arranged by Arthur Verocai) — “General da Banda” 🌹🎵
From gendered sacrifice to ancient politics: DNA uncovers early Chinese civilisation
New analysis reveals the Shimao people were a distinct civilisation that evolved locally in a small region over centuries.
Cancer may be breaking its own DNA to keep growing
Cancer cells rely on powerful genetic switches to keep growth genes running at full speed, but that intense activity can damage their own DNA. The resulting breaks are repeatedly repaired, sometimes with small mistakes that allow new mutations to accumulate. Researchers believe this self-inflicted damage may help tumors evolve while also creating a potential target for new treatments.
Can Humans Live Forever? Study Puts a Cap on Life Span at 194 Years
A new study suggests that DNA mutations may limit human life span to 146–194 years, even under favorable conditions. The findings could help broaden understanding of the aspects of aging that may ultimately prove impossible to reverse.
Wildfire smoke poses hidden health threat
Wildfires are often associated with the destruction they leave behind, but the smoke they produce can pose a serious health threat far beyond the fire zone, the World Health Organization (WHO) has warned.
Democrats’ novel red-state strategy: From the Politics Desk
Plus, another shake-up in the Wisconsin governor’s race.
Scientists discover 2 new 'ghost' lineages that contributed DNA to modern humans
A new method of analyzing modern humans' DNA is revealing secrets about our extinct ancestors.
Ancient mummy DNA provides scientific evidence that colonization brought smallpox to the Americas
New research says ancient mummy DNA provides the firmest evidence yet that European colonization brought smallpox to the Americas.
Everyone alive may carry DNA from a ‘ghost lineage’ of human ancestors
Scientists analyzing modern genomes may have found a long-lost branch of the human family tree
Chilean mummies prove Europeans brought smallpox to the Americas
The 500-year-old smallpox DNA is the oldest ever found in the Americas.
Yankees Sequence of the Week: David Bednar (7/28)
His scoreless streak may have come to an end, but Bednar’s resurgence came at just the right time for the Yankees.
Reincarnation: What Science Says and Doesn’t (or Can’t) Say
Inside a University of Virginia lab, scientists have spent nearly six decades gathering unsettling evidence: children who recall violent deaths, bear matching birthmarks, and know facts they never could have learned. A grieving skeptic investigates whether reincarnation might just be real.
Scientists look to shark DNA for the genetic signature of time
Aging leaves telltale marks on DNA, and for the first time, scientists have used those molecular signatures to create a model that predicts the age of sharks.
Sapphire Intros Radeon RX 9050 8GB Pulse Graphics Card
Sapphire today introduced its Radeon RX 9050 Pulse 8 GB graphics card. Based on a compacted variant of its RX 9060 XT Pulse board design, the card forms AMD's new entry-level in the RX 9000 series generation of GPUs powered by RDNA 4 graphics architecture. AMD carved the RX 9050 out of the 4 nm...
Scientists look to shark DNA for the genetic signature of time
Aging leaves telltale marks on DNA, and for the first time, scientists have used those molecular signatures to create a model that predicts the age of sharks. This tool, known as an epigenetic clock, was developed for the zebra shark (Stegostoma tigrinum) and could soon be expanded to more species,
Scientists pinpoint where cells first begin copying DNA
Researchers at the MRC Laboratory of Medical Sciences (LMS) and collaborators have uncovered one of the earliest steps in DNA replication: the moment a cell first opens its DNA to begin making a copy ...
Science Shorts: Far East food-tech, smart labelling and healthy ageing
Far East food-tech, smart labelling and healthy ageing feature in this edition of Science Shorts
Will Charlton avoid 'second season syndrome'?
Fan writer Paul Sullivan looks at Charlton's chances of maintaining their Championship status in 2026-27.
Hidden genetic diversity helped inbred brown tree snakes conquer guam
A notorious snake invasion that devastated Guam’s native birds may have succeeded because the reptiles carried hidden genetic advantages. Using advanced long-read DNA sequencing, researchers uncovered more than 19,000 large genetic differences in brown tree snakes, many concentrated in genes tied to immunity and smell. This overlooked diversity may have helped a population founded by only a few snakes survive inbreeding, adapt to a new environment, and multiply to extraordinary densities.
Superagers keep youthful memories but their DNA does not explain why
Scientists expected SuperAgers might simply inherit fewer Alzheimer’s-related risks, but their genes looked much like those of typical older adults. Their extraordinary memories may instead come from still-unknown protective forces involving the brain, body, lifestyle, and environment.
Whitmer makes ‘science of reading’ training mandatory for Michigan teachers
Michigan elementary school teachers will be required to take literacy training by the 2031-2032 school year, under a new law signed by Gov. Gretchen ...
Attempted kidnapping, break-in at day care likely tied to mental health issues, docs say
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‘Business as usual is a business of death’: UN adopts road safety pledge over US objection
The UN General Assembly closed its first ever High-level Meeting on road safety on Tuesday by adopting a sweeping new declaration aimed at halving road deaths by 2030 – over the sole objection of the United States.
Health response brings lifesaving care closer to thousands in Yemen
Thousands of people in some of Yemen's most conflict-affected communities are receiving lifesaving health care closer to home, thanks to funding from the UN aid coordination office (OCHA) through the Yemen Humanitarian Fund.
The Best Genetic Risk Tools Don’t Work Equally for Everyone
Genetic prediction models are poised to revolutionize medicine. But because they have been trained on European DNA, they threaten to widen health care disparities.
SleeperGem Uses Three Malicious RubyGems Packages to Target Developer Machines
Three malicious RubyGems packages in the SleeperGem attack skip CI runners, target developer machines, and install persistent native malware.
Harvard Scientists Turned a Silicon Chip Into a DNA Factory
Harvard scientists have built a silicon chip that writes DNA using electricity and water, pointing toward a cleaner future for DNA manufacturing and biotechnology.
Haiti: Signs of hope despite gang violence and political uncertainty
For millions of Haitians, daily life has become a struggle to stay safe, find enough food and simply move around their own neighbourhood.
20 places on Earth that scientists still can't fully explain
From a Himalayan lake whose DNA results deepened its own mystery to a Siberian blast that still defies full explanation, these are 20 real places science hasn't fully cracked
New Alzheimer's drug repairs DNA damage and reduces brain inflammation
A drug originally developed for spinal cord injury may offer a fresh approach to treating Alzheimer’s disease. In mouse studies, KCL-286 repaired dangerous DNA damage, reduced inflammation, and targeted multiple disease-related pathways instead of focusing on just amyloid or tau. Since it has already cleared an initial human safety trial, researchers believe it could move more quickly into Alzheimer’s clinical testing.
Oops! Ancient Bronze Age shaman long assumed to be a man was actually a woman, DNA reveals
A DNA analysis of a 4,000-year-old skeleton buried with an elaborate metalworking tool kit near Stonehenge has revealed that the individual, long assumed to be a male shaman, was actually a woman.
‘Growing Pains’ star shares terrifying story of almost being kidnapped from the set
Former ‘Growing Pains’ star Ashley Johnson says she was almost kidnapped from the sitcom’s set in the early ʼ90s.
Scientists show that DNA can last for up to 50,000 years in Africa — much longer than previously thought
Researchers extracted DNA from long-dead animals that lived in South Africa during the last ice age, revealing that genetic material lasts longer in hot climates than was previously thought.
Scientists are deep-freezing koala eggs and sperm to protect the species from extinction
Researchers at the University of Queensland in Australia want to freeze koala sex cells in liquid nitrogen, which could preserve the DNA for decades until we need it, an expert said.
49ers news: Training camp, K.J. Wright, Trent Williams falls
Checking in on the Arizona Cardinals' NFC West rivals, a look at some stories from the last week about the 49ers.
At Family Science Night, Wonder Comes Before Answers.
BAR HARBOR—Family Science Night isn’t really about science. It’s about wonder. It’s about watching a five-year-old realize that the tiny creature under a microscope is a real living thing. It’s about a teenager discovering that the scientist explaining genetics or regeneration isn’t much older than they are. It’s about parents seeing curiosity spread across a child’s face the way excitement spreads across a crowd at a Fourth of July parade. For one evening, families realize that the laboratory isn’t some secretive place where knowledge is hidden behind white coats and closed doors. They learn that the lab is a place their neighbors work, their friends’ parents work, and it becomes a place where questions matter more than answers. It’s a place where wonder is the origin for knowledge. At the lab, children learn that it’s okay not to know. Adults remember that they once asked “Why?” about everything. Scientists are reminded why they fell in love with discovery in the first place. There are experiments, games, obstacle courses, and demonstrations, of course. But those are really just invitations—to touch, to explore, to laugh, to make mistakes, and to ask one more question. In a world that often rewards certainty, Family Science Night celebrates curiosity. And perhaps that’s its greatest gift. Long after the microscopes are packed away and the experiments are over, what families take home isn’t just a few new facts about biology. They take home the feeling that discovery belongs to everyone—that science isn’t something happening somewhere else by someone else. It’s simply what happens when people are given permission to wonder. A Family Science Night at the Mount Desert Island Biological Laboratory is one of those rare community events where children and adults can experience science as something they do, not just something they read about. Hands on discovery allows hands-on learning and joy. Real scientists, some local, some scientist-interns (but still scientists) just in college make science real, approachable, and exciting. And there, complex ideas like forever chemical-filtration, DNA and so much more become not complex. Instead, they become fun. Summer fellows are challenged to explain cutting-edge biomedical research in ways a first-grader—and their grandparent—can understand. Past activities have explored gene expression, kidney function, axolotl regeneration, worms, microplastics, and phytoplankton through games and creative demonstrations. Though it’s called family night, you can also see adults going from station to station, exploring, learning together across ages. Family Science Night reflects the laboratory’s broader mission of breaking down barriers between researchers and the public, helping people understand how scientific discoveries relate to everyday life and the health of Maine’s environment. Family Science Night transforms a world-class research laboratory into a giant interactive classroom, where curiosity is encouraged, questions are celebrated, and families discover that science isn’t just something that happens in a lab—it’s an adventure anyone can join. About MDI Biological Laboratory For more than 125 years, MDI Bio Lab has been a center for training and research in comparative biology. In the last two decades its biomedical research has focused on aging, regeneration, and environmental toxins. The Laboratory houses 11 research groups staffed by an international team of world-class scientists and graduate students. It also leads a statewide network of colleges, universities and research institutions that collaborate to provide training, research experiences and financial support to help young Mainers play a bigger role in today’s biomedical revolution. Located on Maine’s rugged coast, the Laboratory’s 100+ acre campus houses research facilities, cottages and dorms that house visiting scientists and students. It is also home to MDI Bioscience, a subsidiary working to design innovative techniques to speed the drug discovery process. LINKS TO LEARN MORE NIH INBRE MDI BIOLOGICAL LABORATORY Photos: Carrie Jones and Shaun Farrar/Bar Harbor Story HELP SUPPORT THE BAR HARBOR STORY When we started The Bar Harbor Story, we didn’t know if anyone would read it. But you showed up. You shared. You sent tips. Now—over 400,000 views every month later—it’s clear: people here care about their community and each other. We’ve kept everything free because news should never be out of reach, but every one of our stories takes time to write, and your support keeps The Bar Harbor Story going. If you value our work, please consider a paid subscription, a founding membership, or a sponsorship. It truly helps us cover one more meeting, tell one more story, shine one more light. Even $5 a month makes a difference. Click here to become a one-time supporter now. Thank you so much for being here. Founding member information can be found here. Have questions about sponsorships? Just send Shaun an email at sfarrar86@gmail.com, he’d love to hear from you. Subscribe Share Bar Harbor Story Share Leave a comment
Breakthroughs in RNA science
Most people first heard about mRNA during the 2020 pandemic, but this molecule that carries instructions from DNA to make proteins has been studied since the 1960s. Decades of basic
Illumina names new commercial, legal chiefs as sequencing business shows signs of stability
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AMD Expands Hawk Point Lineup With Numerous New SKUs Under Ryzen 200 And 100 Series
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Restoring dignity: Senegalese surgeon and Burundian foundation win reproductive health awards
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Harvard scientists turn a silicon chip into a DNA writing machine
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Ancient DNA reveals the mysterious collapse of Europe's megalith builders
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Scientists say Beefalo are all beef, no -alo. Breeders disagree
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AI is already reshaping US politics at every level
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Scientists enable DNA synthesis using only temperature instead of chemical reagents
"Complex chemical processes are essential for making DNA." This long-held assumption in the field of biotechnology has been overturned by a Korean research team. A KAIST research team has developed the ...
Could we ever clone Neanderthals?
The answer involves ancient DNA, dire wolves, and a whole bunch of bioethics.
Today on OTM: What are your non-sports hobbies?
Happy Tuesday, OTM! It’s a sad, rainy morning for me here in Boston as the USMNT bowed out of the World Cup last night, quarter-end closing activities are happening in the accounting world, and the Red Sox are eight games under .500. I’m writing this about 20 minutes after the loss to Belgium, so I’m […]
New workflow tool gives scientists a clearer view of how DNA is regulated
Researchers from the Cancer Science Institute of Singapore (CSI Singapore) at NUS have developed a new method that allows scientists to better understand how DNA is organized and regulated inside cells. ...
From recombinant DNA to AI: Who gets a say in powerful new science?
Professor Luis Campos studies the history of biology and biotechnology.
Inside the $85 million private jet that made one of Africa’s richest billionaires the owner of the world’s fastest business jet
Months after entering service, Bombardier’s Global 8000 has arrived in Africa, with one of Nigeria’s most powerful industrialists becoming its first customer on the continent in a move that flexes both aviation ambition and billionaire financial muscle, especially for a buyer who already owns two other Bombardier jets
Meet the founder betting Africa's next entertainment giant will be built on ownership, not just storytelling
The worlds biggest entertainment companies arent valuable because they make great films or television
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'Tanmaxxing' trend could come at a dangerous cost, skin cancer experts warn
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A safe return home: Tackling stigma on Uganda's Ebola frontline
As Uganda works to contain an Ebola outbreak that is also affecting neighbouring Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), health workers are doing more than responding to a deadly virus. They are helping families navigate fear, misinformation and stigma.
Scientists Have Created The World's First Synthetic Cell, First Ancient Human DNA Recovered From Cave Art, And Much More This Week
All the biggest science news stories of the week.
AI is already reshaping US politics at every level
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DNA My Dog Expands Product Suite With Launch of New Health and Trait Test, Building on 18-Year Foundation in Canine Genetic Testing
TORONTO, July 03, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- DNA My Dog, a pioneer in consumer canine genetic testing, today announced the commercial launch of it...
A career of flying for science (and the occasional sled dog)
Martin Stuefer, the director of the Hyperspectral Imaging Lab at the University of Alaska Fairbanks Geophysical Institute, is both a pilot and researcher.
Oregon merges psychedelic mushroom, medical marijuana regulators, proposes fee hike
The Oregon Health Authority is making administrative and personnel changes to its psychedelic mushroom and marijuana services, citing “budget shortfalls.”
Taking the world’s temperature: WHO chief spotlights global health emergencies
The hantavirus global outbreak is officially over, Ebola outbreaks are growing in Africa and responders are helping recovery efforts in quake-hit Venezuela, the World Health Organization (WHO) chief said on Thursday, announcing updates on global health emergencies.
Ancient cave paintings can harbor human DNA for millennia, scientists find
The breakthrough could reveal previously hidden ancient human activity inside caves, acting as ‘genetic archives’
‘The science is here’: UN chief welcomes first global AI assessment
Fresh scientific evidence and options for harnessing artificial intelligence (AI) were unveiled Wednesday following the launch of the first global, independent scientific assessment of opportunities, risks and impacts by a pioneering UN expert panel.
If we lose our coverage, we lose our lives
By Thomas Buckley My oncologist asked: “Polycythemia Vera. Do you know what that means?” Earlier, I lived in blissful ignorance, unaware I potentially carried a myeloproliferative neoplasm encoded within my DNA. “Yes,” I answered, “A rare form of blood cancer, incurable, not necessarily fatal, provided it’s treated.” At 31, I thought I had life figured […]
‘Beautiful blobs’: synthetic life a step closer as scientists make cells using lab-made DNA
Tiny, quivering spheres designed to feed and multiply raise prospect of artificial organisms to make drugs, food and fuel
FBI reportedly deems three ransom notes tied to Nancy Guthrie disappearance to be fake
The FBI reportedly denies the veracity of three ransom notes linked to the disappearance of Nancy Guthrie: two from February, sent days after she was declared missing, and one from June, alleging to have video of her following her kidnapping.
Venezuela quake: key services crippled and health workers missing
Search and rescue operations continued in Venezuela on Tuesday as thousands of displaced people struggled to find shelter and humanitarians warned about the spread of infectious disease.
Terrion Arnold released: Where Lions go from here after secondary suffers loss, plus potential replacements
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Nancy Guthrie demand letter’s authenticity questioned by sheriff
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Scientists Found Ancient Human DNA on Cave Walls for the First Time and It Could Rewrite the Story of Prehistoric Art
The find could transform how researchers study prehistoric cave art.
Lakers Have Reportedly Not Offered LeBron James a Contract Yet
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New Nancy Guthrie demand letter claims to have video from her 'last' day: Report
A new demand letter about Nancy Guthrie reportedly claims to have video of the 84-year-old and her kidnapper on 'the day that was probably her last.'
Making Our Own Luck
We are cross-posting a piece that former NIH official Kris Willis wrote for Macroscience. Kris is now the President and Founder of the Woodley Park Institute, for which I’m a board member. Picking winners or hedging bets? Federal science agencies have long wrestled with the question of how to ensure their billions of dollars of grants and contracts result in maximum benefits for Americans. On the surface, it might seem that a goal-oriented, interventionist style of management would be the best policy: prioritize our most pressing problems and distribute funding accordingly.This top-down strategy creates a unique hazard, though: bad choices can send resources in the wrong direction, resulting in slow progress that impedes the delivery of tangible benefits to citizens. Moreover, if decision makers pursue an applied advance when the underlying scientific principles remain poorly understood, they risk costly failures and a loss of support for the research enterprise at large. Examples include Nixon’s 1971 War on Cancer, undertaken on the premise that a cure could be achieved in less than a decade, the drive to build an operational commercial fusion plant by the mid-1990s, and the National Plan to Address Alzheimer’s Disease, which failed to produce the effective treatments and prevention strategies promised by 2025. The contrasting laissez-faire approach is to hedge your bets. If the path to an advance is impossible to predict, then the wisest choice might be to distribute funding to as widely as possible. The main risk of this strategy is that spreading funding thinly may limit the resources available to the most promising research, resulting in the same negative outcomes as the interventionist approach: limited support for the most promising topics, slow progress, and delayed returns. In reality, at science agencies like the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health, program managers navigate between these two extremes, setting some funds aside to target high-priority areas and using the rest to cover the widest possible range of meritorious proposals. This middle path seems like the most rational way to proceed, but it still requires making choices. How much should be set aside for high priority topics? What should those topics be? How should we define merit? Expert opinion can provide a helpful guide, but leading experts can have remarkably different opinions about what matters and what should be prioritized. Moreover, experts and administrators alike can be risk averse, giving an edge to high-profile, well-established concepts. What’s really needed is a data-driven framework to help guide decision-making, one that doesn’t simply repackage prestige or incumbency. Recognizing breakthroughs years in advance Many breakthroughs fail to attract funding or recognition at the earliest stages of development. Katalin Karikó, for example, spent years struggling to win grants for work on mRNA that would eventually win her and Drew Weissman a Nobel Prize. Similar stories can be told about Jim Allison’s groundbreaking studies leading to the development of cancer immunotherapy, Stan Pruisner’s demonstration that prions can self-replicate without DNA, or Robin Warren and Barry Marshall’s proof that Helicobacter pylori, not stress, causes ulcers. Yet at some point, the scientific community recognizes and responds to transformative breakthroughs like these. How does that change happen? And what if science funders could identify the areas that are on the cusp of a breakthrough? Those questions led my collaborators and me to study how scientists responded to past breakthroughs. Based on patterns in that data, we developed a means of predicting future breakthroughs, using biomedicine as a proof of concept. It’s worth taking a moment to describe how our approach works. Briefly, our prediction process begins by grouping the 18 million or so peer-reviewed papers in PubMed, the authoritative database of biomedical research, into roughly 50,000 unique topics. A small subset of these topics are so widely acclaimed as breakthroughs that they have been recognized with a major prize like a Nobel or a Lasker Award. We theorized that studying the development of these outliers over time, especially before they gained acclaim, was the key to identifying future instances of them. After defining topics, we chose 21 representative breakthroughs and asked what they looked like before they won prestigious prizes. To answer that question, we re-ran our topic-mapping algorithm repeatedly, winding back the clock one year each time, stringing together the years to follow the progress of each field as it grew and advanced. We found that in each case, the years leading up to a discovery followed a pattern: a burst of papers on a new, rapidly evolving topic, many of which quickly became influential. These characteristics—the percent of papers that are new, the percentage of papers that are brought in from other topics, and the influence of each individual paper—can all be measured separately for any given topic. Together, they act as a predictive signal that is detectable an average of five years before a transformative discovery is made, and up to thirty years before the discovery receives a major prize. Scanning the current research landscape for topics that display this signal allows us to predict what work will likely produce a future breakthrough. Each year we analyzed includes four or five signals, a number that appears to have remained constant across a twenty year time frame. In their classic work on the sociology of science, Bruno Latour and Steve Woolgar established that the desire to participate in a major discovery is an important motivator for scientists as they consider whether they should take up (or abandon) a research problem. Although further work is needed, the simplest explanation for our results is that this behavior is widespread enough to detect at scale. A foundational advance, or something like it, draws the attention of scientists and causes them to change the direction of their research. They vote with their feet, staking their own reputation and careers by publishing on and citing the new idea. That upswell of interest is the foundation of our breakthrough signal. What kind of research does our model identify as a breakthrough? After building a model based on the patterns in our 21 preselected breakthroughs, we tested it by identifying all early signals of discovery from 1994 through 1997. Of the 18 signals we found in that time period, 17 can be traced forward in time to a breakthrough. Examples include super-resolution fluorescence microscopy (see the image above), the directed evolution of proteins and enzymes (Chemistry Nobel, 2018), and sequencing the human genome (National Medal of Science, 2008). The discovery of the role of leptin signaling in obesity is a particularly interesting case study. Around 1950, scientists noticed the existence of a type of lab mouse that suffered from a unique inherited form of obesity. When given the freedom to choose their own diet, these mice ate more than normal and preferred food that was high in fat. Researchers had few clues as to why the animals overate; early experiments pointed to the existence of a soluble ob factor found circulating in the bloodstream that regulated appetite, but its identity was unknown. In 1994, Jeffrey Friedman and colleagues identified and sequenced the ob gene, noting that the protein it encoded appeared to fit the profile of a circulating factor. A year later, a trio of high-profile publications demonstrated that ob was a hormone that regulated body weight and fat deposition by regulating appetite. One of these was co-authored by Friedman, who christened it leptin from the ancient Greek word for thin. Using our model, the data from 1996 make it clear this advance would become a breakthrough. Scientists had flocked to study the biology of the new hormone, generating the flurry of new papers and citations required to produce a signal. One of these demonstrated that serum leptin concentrations reflected the amount of adipose tissue in the human body, providing clinical validation of the earlier mouse studies. Before the identification of leptin, scientists were unable to point to a specific molecule that controlled appetite and adiposity, so that it was impossible to rule out non-physiological causes of obesity; its characterization fundamentally changed our concept of weight gain. In 2010, Friedman and fellow pioneer Douglas Coleman were awarded a Lasker for the discovery. Our work also identifies breakthroughs in clinical practice and behavioral and social sciences, even though these areas are less likely to draw the attention of major prize committees. One example that falls into this category is the introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair, a minimally invasive surgical procedure for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm, a leading cause of death among Americans over the age of 65. Relative to the previous standard of care, it reduces in-hospital mortality by almost four-fold. In 2017, Timothy Chuter received the American College of Surgeons’ prestigious Jacobsen Innovation award for his multiple refinements to the technique. Another under-recognized breakthrough identified by our model is the development of standardized survey instruments to assess the quality of life for HIV+ patients. The antiretroviral cocktails introduced in the mid-1990s reduced AIDS mortality, but treatment came with serious side effects. The new evaluations showed that patients whose disease progressed had worse physical functioning than Americans with other chronic diseases, while those who were asymptomatic maintained a health-related quality of life on par with the overall US population. This evidence made it possible for patients and activists to argue that even in the absence of a total cure, and in spite of the side effects, alleviation of symptoms was a worthwhile priority for clinicians. My colleagues and I have failed to identify any significant recognition for the physicians and health policy experts who pioneered this advance, although in 2016, researchers called for the World Health Organization to set targets for good health-related quality of life as part of its framework to end the AIDS pandemic. From forecasting to funding How should science funders use our predictions? Any serious discussion of what we should do with this new capability needs to begin with an understanding of its limitations. We can’t (and shouldn’t) invest all of our resources in the small number of topics predicted to produce breakthroughs. Innovative new fields are born from existing ones; they rarely arise de novo. If funders don’t maintain a diverse portfolio, the breakthroughs of tomorrow will have no antecedents. Think of this as eating the seed corn, or killing the goose that lays the golden egg. There are also multiple goals of funding beyond basic scientific discovery, including translating discoveries into clinical practice, developing new technologies, supporting economic development, and training new scientists. The investments needed to accomplish these goals are likely different from those required to support emerging breakthroughs. Finally, we must be aware that we may not capture every instance of a breakthrough. The concept is fuzzy, and not every significant discovery is recognized with a major award. Further, breakthroughs are rare, meaning that our dataset is, by necessity, small. This makes formal estimates of accuracy challenging. Although our overall success rate appears to be high, any one signal may turn out to be a false positive. We found one apparent example: the development of the third generation COX-2 inhibitors, Vioxx and Celebrex, which were much celebrated in the early 2000s as effective but non-addictive pain relievers, meets all the algorithmic criteria of a breakthrough. Five years after it received FDA approval, researchers demonstrated that Vioxx was associated with serious cardiovascular complications, and the manufacturer voluntarily pulled the drug from the market. Celebrex remains available, although like other NSAIDs, it carries an FDA warning for increased cardiovascular risk. Decision makers who were overly focused on the breakthrough potential of this research might have wasted substantial resources nurturing an area that ultimately proved to be a failure—but so would those who relied on expert opinion at the time. That said, the potential benefits of funding the next mRNA vaccine or cancer immunotherapy years earlier than we might have are large. When we can’t assume the outcome of an action, it’s worth conducting an experiment. Can targeted support for areas that are poised to produce a breakthrough increase the return on scientific investment without cannibalizing future advances? With the necessary administrative infrastructure in place, conducting this experiment would be straightforward. First, identify all the breakthrough signals between 2018 and 2023, select half at random, and commit to a decade of investment. For biomedicine, a six year window should yield about 30 topics with the potential to produce a breakthrough. Providing strong support to half of these might be accomplished for $300 million a year. That’s roughly half of the recent annual budget of the NIH Common Fund or around 20% of the fiscal year 2025 budget for ARPA-H. After five years, then again at ten, compare to see which group — the one that was actively managed, or the control — produced more breakthroughs, and on what timescale. Although we used biomedicine as an example, the same experiment could just as well be run for physics, materials science, or any other discipline. Any attempt to undertake such an experiment should keep three points top of mind. First, we can predict the topic of future breakthroughs, but the people and vision for how to move the work forward are still important. In practice, this means success requires active program managers with the expertise to develop the science and the authority to do so, including by recruiting investigators. Second, we would be wise to learn from the failures of past attempts to fund transformative research. High among these are funding modestly repackaged work, confusing the genuinely novel with the merely unfamiliar, and relying too much on incumbent investigators. All of these risks can be mitigated by thoroughly and intelligently integrating high quality data into portfolio management. Finally, we need to have patience. Even with strong funding support, producing a breakthrough takes time. If supporting breakthroughs is the best way to nurture the birth of new fields, we also need to accurately describe and properly manage the other two stages, so that we invest wisely throughout the productive lifetime of ideas and divest once they reach the point of diminishing returns. We would benefit from more study of all of these phases, especially the transition from one to another. More research could answer questions like: When does a breakthrough become an established field? How do the availability of funding, the size and characteristics of the available workforce, and the accumulation of evidence that disagrees with prevailing models affect a field’s decline? Exactly how do old ideas give birth to new ones, and can we speed up the process? The more we understand about the dynamics of scientific progress, the better we can maximize the odds that our curiosity leads to results. I’d call that finding a way to make our own luck.