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Yankees legend says goodbye as he battles health issues: ‘Thank you & God Bless’
Former MLB pitcher Tommy John, a four-time All-Star, missed New York Yankees' Old-Timers' Day this past weekend.
Tommy John, ex-Yankees pitcher and namesake of career-saving surgery, says goodbye amid health issues
The lefty didn’t attend Old-Timers’ Day at Yankee Stadium this past weekend, but instead penned a note thanking everyone who made his career possible.
Brian Schottenheimer’s challenge keeps door open in Cowboys’ LT competition
Dallas Cowboys head coach Brian Schottenheimer spoke on the state of the team's battle for the left tackle starting job.
iPhone 17 set to break a record no flagship has touched in 15 years
When Apple released the iPhone 17 last September, the timer started for the new flagship model breaking a record set...
Could this everyday habit really increase your risk of Alzheimer’s? Science finally answers - Futura-Sciences
Where Did This Nose-Picking and Alzheimer’s Rumor Start? Over the past few years, a persistent rumor has resurfaced: picking your nose could supposedly increase your risk of developing Alzheimer’s disease. What’s behind this eyebrow-raising claim? It all traces back to a scientific study on mice, published in the journal Nature...
Tommy John misses Yankees event, bids farewell in post
Tommy John, the namesake for the elbow surgery of many top MLB players, did not attend the Yankees' Old-Timer's Day as he shared a vague message about his health.
Tommy John misses Old-Timers' Day to continue cancer treatment
NEW YORK – Tommy John, whose Major League pitching career was extended by a revolutionary elbow procedure that now carries his name, penned an emotional statement addressing the Yankees and their fans ahead of Saturday’s Old-Timers’ Day festivities at Yankee Stadium. “I want to thank the Yankees organization and the
Tommy John pens goodbye to Yankees for Old-Timers' Day during health fight
Tommy John, the longtime pitcher known for the elbow surgery named after him, has penned his goodbye to the Yankees while in a health battle.
Yankees share sad Tommy John news on Old Timers Day
Former Yankees pitcher Tommy John was not present for the team’s annual “Old Timers’ Day” game at Yankee Stadium on Saturday, Aug. 8. The team shared the sad reason why. The Yankees posted a letter from John to their social…
Seiko's $750 Speedtimer Chronograph Gets a New "Edo Purple" Dial
The affordable Prospex Speedtimer, equipped with a solar quartz movement, receives a "purple panda" dial revamp.
Brian Schottenheimer: Left tackle is still not decided
Schotty noted that left tackle is not decided yet
Team's AI agent to speed Alzheimer's treatment
Vanderbilt researchers have received a grant to build an AI tool within the health record system to get patients with Alzheimer's disease to treatment faster.
PET imaging links psychosis to Alzheimer's-related brain findings
New imaging research suggests that many adults who develop psychosis-related hallucinations or delusions later in life show brain changes associated with AD and other neurodegenerative disorders.
Acoustirats and Jordan Lauterbach to Perform at LI Music & Entertainment Hall of Fame on Aug 23rd
As part of the Long Island Music and Entertainment Hall of Fame Soundtrack to Summer Series, the band Acoustirats will perform LIVE music and Comedian Jordan Lauterbach will open with comedy set at the Long Island Music and Entertainment Hall of Fame in Stony Brook Village (97 Main Street, Stony Brook, NY) on Aug. 23th from 3-4pm. The event is free for members or with general admission ticket purchase or $10 at the door concert ticket purchase. For details on this and upcoming events please visit https://www.limusichalloffame.... About AcoustiRats AcoustiRats is an acoustic duo dedicated to stripping Good Rats classics down to their raw, essential form. Fronted by Stefan Marchello, lead singer and 36-year veteran of the Good Rats, alongside guitarist Matt McCarthy, who also did a run on guitar with the band. Between them, they've got decades of Good Rats DNA in their blood. After years of playing these songs loud and electric, Stefan and Matt are thrilled to break them down to the bare bones. No frills, no amps cranked to 11 — just voice, acoustic guitar, and the songwriting that made the Good Rats legendary. It's the same attitude and stories fans know, delivered in a raw, intimate format. For diehard Good Rats fans, it's a new way to hear the classics. For first-timers, it's proof that great songwriting doesn't need to be loud to hit hard. About Jordan Lauterbach Jordan Lauterbach is a fast-rising comedian who features prominently in clubs around the country. His autobiographical style and supreme wit keep audiences laughing for hours after they leave the club. Lauterbach is likable, relatable, and tremendously funny. He has opened for some of comedy's best and is quickly carving out an audience of his own.
How J. Robert Oppenheimer brought together thousands of scientists to build the world's first atomic bomb
Prior to 1945, nuclear weapons were just an idea that could be discussed in theoretical physics literature. This changed when J.
My mom has Alzheimer's. Caregiving never really stops.
I thought arranging 24-hour care for my mom with Alzheimer's would ease the burden. Instead, I discovered how much caregiving remained.
Inspections find violations at area restaurants
Review June 2026 food service inspection reports from the New York State Department of Health for restaurants, schools and other food establishments in Oneida, Herkimer and Madison counties.
Cowboys’ Brian Schottenheimer Gives Emphatic George Pickens Warning
Cowboys coach Brian Schottenheimer gave a strong statement on the approach of George Pickens this week at training camp. The post Cowboys’ Brian Schottenheimer Gives Emphatic George Pickens Warning appeared first on HEAVY.
Thousands of people in China have had banned Alzheimer's surgery
Surgery that aims to enhance the clearance of Alzheimer's-associated proteins from the brain has been banned in China, but only after thousands of people had the procedure
Scientists discover why poor sleep may harm some brains more
A gene involved in the brain’s overnight cleaning system may change how strongly poor sleep affects Alzheimer’s-related brain changes. The findings point toward more personalized prevention strategies based on both genetics and sleep habits.
Chicago advocates step up for brain health and a future without Alzheimer’s
Content oversight provided by Studio 1847 Alzheimer’s disease reshapes families and demands immense resilience. Yet a growing wave of scientific optimism is changing approaches to brain health. Local volunteers Ellen Gudjonis and …
Halo: Campaign Evolved's 'death barriers' and ungenerous out-of-bounds restrictions are making the 42 skull grind a real bore
42 skulls, 10 terminals, and an out-of-bounds auto-death that is frustrating even the most seasoned reclaimers.
Brewers trade deadline primer, part five: Re-assessing
Less than a week out, where do we stand?
Brian Schottenheimer calls Christian Parker “maybe the hardest working coach”
There is so much excitement for the Cowboys defense under Christian Parker right now.
Dallas Cowboys 2026 training camp: Key storylines to watch in Oxnard
The Dallas Cowboys are set to open 2026 training camp in Oxnard, California. Led by head coach Brian Schottenheimer, the Cowboys feel their offseason moves have them trending in the right direction. Here are some storylines as the Boys invade Oxnard.
RFK Jr urges Alzheimer’s screening but blunts key panel that could drive research
Experts say evidence for cognitive screening desired by health secretary ‘not great’ as taskforce idle since last year
A hidden Alzheimer’s tipping point may decide who gets dementia
Scientists have identified a possible tipping point that helps determine whether Alzheimer’s-related brain changes lead to dementia. The key may lie in how the brain’s immune cells respond to plaques and tau, offering a promising new target for treatments designed to extend cognitive resilience.
Superagers keep youthful memories but their DNA does not explain why
Scientists expected SuperAgers might simply inherit fewer Alzheimer’s-related risks, but their genes looked much like those of typical older adults. Their extraordinary memories may instead come from still-unknown protective forces involving the brain, body, lifestyle, and environment.
RELEASE: Gottheimer Hosts Telephone Town Hall to Discuss Health Care Costs, Medicare, Social Security, Utility Prices, Affordability in Jersey
Above: Gottheimer conducts a Telephone Town Hall with North Jersey families. WASHINGTON, D.C. — Last night, July 22, 2026, U.S. Congressman Josh Gottheimer (NJ-5) hosted a Telephone Town Hall with thousands of North Jersey residents to discuss his bipartisan efforts to lower health care and prescription drug costs, protect Social Security and Medicare, cut taxes, lower […]
Why Did This Man Avoid Alzheimer’s? Scientists Reveal Their Astonishing Theory - Futura-Sciences
A Family Plagued by Early-Onset Alzheimer’s Doug Whitney inherited a rare genetic mutation that’s devastated much of his family: many relatives experienced significant cognitive decline as early as their 50s. Yet Doug himself has stayed mentally alert well past the age at which illness struck in the family. According to...
Lab-grown mini brains may predict which Alzheimer’s treatments will work
Miniature brain models grown from patients’ cells revealed striking differences in how Alzheimer’s-related tissue responds to an antidepressant. The organoids and the particles they release could eventually guide more personalized treatments and provide new clues for diagnosing the disease.
Piitch-timer gamesmanship triggers scuffle between Pirates, Yankees
New York Yankees shortstop Jose Caballero triggered a benches-clearing scuffle with the Pittsburgh Pirates through manipulation of MLB's pitch clock.
Beyond weight loss: Lilly aims for leadership in brain science
Lilly’s neuroscience chief discusses the large pharma’s aims in brain science, and how diagnostics and dosing are driving its next advancements in Alzheimer’s.
Scientists discover a protein that protects the brain from Alzheimer’s damage
A protein called SORLA may act as a powerful defense against the toxic tau tangles involved in Alzheimer’s disease. Mice with extra SORLA had less tau accumulation, less brain atrophy, and healthier connections between neurons, while mice without it experienced more severe damage. The findings also revealed a possible drug target that could help control harmful activity in supporting brain cells.
5 Lifestyle Changes I Made After Learning I Have a High Alzheimer’s Risk
A mom of three, Elena Castellanos recently learned just how much power over her health she really has.
Arc Herkimer plans Party in the Park
Arc Herkimer will host a free Party in the Park featuring live music, food trucks, movie-themed activities and family entertainment in Herkimer.
New Alzheimer's drug repairs DNA damage and reduces brain inflammation
A drug originally developed for spinal cord injury may offer a fresh approach to treating Alzheimer’s disease. In mouse studies, KCL-286 repaired dangerous DNA damage, reduced inflammation, and targeted multiple disease-related pathways instead of focusing on just amyloid or tau. Since it has already cleared an initial human safety trial, researchers believe it could move more quickly into Alzheimer’s clinical testing.
UT Health San Antonio study links sleeping long hours with higher levels of an Alzheimer’s-related protein
UT Health San Antonio study links sleeping long hours with higher levels of an Alzheimer’s-related protein
UT Health San Antonio study links sleeping long hours with higher levels of an Alzheimer’s-related protein
Findings could signal early neurodegenerative processes at work Contact: Steven Lee, (210) 450-3823, lees22@uthscsa.edu SAN ANTONIO, July 16, 2026 – Regularly sleeping long hours each night is associated with higher levels of an Alzheimer’s-related protein in the blood, even accounting for other health factors, suggests a new study from UT Health San Antonio, the academic […]
In Good Health: The Alzheimer’s Research Revolution
An Alzheimer’s diagnosis can have a real impact on a person and their family. There’s a lot to consider — what the future will hold, what symptoms they’ll experience, and on what timeline.About 7.5 million people in the U.S. currently suffer from Alzheimer’s. Every year, around half a million more are diagnosed with the disease or another form of dementia. As the population gets older, that figure will continue to rise.For decades, researchers have struggled to understand these kinds of diseases. But when it comes to testing and treatment, particularly for Alzheimer’s, there have been significant advances in the past few years.In this installment of our series, “In Good Health,” we tackle the revolution in dementia research. What will that mean for patients?For more information on dementia research, find Pam Belluck’s latest reporting at the New York Times. And Dr. Karlawish’s “Neurotransmissions” column at STAT News, covering dementia care and research.Find more of our programs online. Listen to 1A sponsor-free by signing up for 1A+ at plus.npr.org/the1a.
'The Odyssey' review: Christopher Nolan's new movie is an unexpected spiritual sequel to 'Oppenheimer'
Christopher Nolan makes Homer's material his own — and becomes an Oscar frontrunner in the process.
In Good Health: The Alzheimer's research revolution
About 7.5 million people in the U.S. currently suffer from Alzheimer’s.
Study shows a blood test can help identify healthy people at high risk for Alzheimer's disease
A blood test that helps diagnose Alzheimer’s might also forecast if healthy older adults will develop symptoms
Study shows a blood test can help identify healthy people at high risk for Alzheimer’s disease
A blood test that helps diagnose Alzheimer's might also forecast if healthy older adults will develop symptoms.
Amazon Has the Lowest Price on a GeForce RTX 5070 Graphics Card That I've Seen So Far This Year and It Features Triple-Fan Active Cooling
The ASUS Prime RTX 5070 GPU has 12GB of VRAM and a robust triple-fan cooling system.
A look inside Christopher Nolan’s ‘The Odyssey’ by the numbers
Christopher Nolan's “The Odyssey” is an epic film, hitting theaters Friday. The Associated Press looks at the film, by the numbers. It runs 172 minutes, slightly shorter than “Oppenheimer.” The
Siri AI makes the Apple Watch finally feel like a wrist computer
Or you could just use Siri to set timers — it still does that well.
Boundary Spanning Leadership's Impact on Public Health
Explore three examples of Boundary Spanning Leadership's public health impact, from overdose to Alzheimer's to youth behavioral health.
2 brain-healthy habits a neurologist swears by to prevent disease
A neurologist shared why emotional health is so important for reducing the risk of dementia and Alzheimer's.
Oxford Brain Diagnostics Advances Vision for Measuring Brain Health and Neurodegenerative Disease with Five New Studies at AAIC 2026
New findings demonstrate the potential of OBD's MRI-based Cortical Disarray Measurement (CDM®) technology to support patient identification, disease characterization, treatment monitoring, and therapeutic development across Alzheimer's disease OXFORD, United Kingdom, July 13, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Oxford Brain Diagnostics (OBD), a leader in MRI-based measurement of brain health and neurodegenerative disease, today announced the presentation of five new studies at the Alzheimer's Association I
Alzheimer's tau protein has a surprising secret role in memory
Researchers found that tau is essential for turning new experiences into lasting memories by helping organize the brain's memory-storing cells. The mouse study also revealed how abnormal tau may contribute to Alzheimer's by disrupting both the formation of new memories and the recall of existing ones.
Science & Medicine: Pursuing precision medicine for Alzheimer's disease
A cutting-edge technology and an exciting recent hire hint at exciting developments in the future of precision medicine in the diagnosis and treatment of Alzheimer's disease.
Alliance Entertainment and Bimergen Interviews to Air on the RedChip Small Stocks, Big Money(TM) Show on Bloomberg TV
ORLANDO, FL / ACCESS Newswire / July 10, 2026 / RedChip Companies will air interviews with Alliance Entertainment Holding Corp. (NASDAQ:AENT) and Bimergen Energy Corp. (NYSE American:BESS) on the RedChip Small Stocks, Big Money™ show, a sponsored ...
Property appraisal survey to be mailed to commercial businesses and multi-family property owners
Commercial business and multi-family property owners will be mailed a survey soon from the Larimer County Assessor’s Office to help their office with the
Washington Commanders Training Camp Primer: Tight Ends
Despite outside skepticism, could the tight end room prove to be a strength for the Washington Commanders?
Dedicated ‘coffee crew’ credits camaraderie, teamwork for success of Aspinwall business
A java dream team brings fun and efficiency to work at Aspinwall Beans ‘N’ Cream. The crew of eight full-timers and one part-timer at Aspinwall Beans ‘N’ Cream — dubbed ABC by locals — shares more than 100 years of combined food and beverage experience while serving up hometown hospitality
Do You Know Your Dementia Risk?
The risk for Alzheimer's doubles every ten years after the age of 60. Knowing your risk can potentially help you prevent dementia as you age.
An anti-inflammatory diet may lower dementia risk, even in people with early signs of Alzheimer’s
Healthy eating may help protect the brain, even after early biological changes linked to Alzheimer’s disease have begun, a study suggests. Dr. Leana Wen explains.
RFK Jr.’s latest overhaul aims to boost preventive care. It could get expensive.
The health secretary wants insurers to cover Alzheimer’s tests. Some in the health industry hope he’ll back routine testing for many more diseases.
Scientists may have finally found how Alzheimer's kills brain cells
Researchers have identified a previously overlooked mechanism of brain cell death that appears to play a major role in Alzheimer's disease and frontotemporal dementia. The finding could lead to new treatments aimed at slowing neuron loss by interrupting the process before cells are destroyed.
Scientists discover the deep sleep circuit that builds muscle, burns fat, and boosts the brain
Researchers have identified the brain circuitry that links deep sleep with the release of growth hormone, revealing how the two regulate each other. The newly discovered feedback loop helps explain why poor sleep can interfere with growth, muscle repair, fat metabolism, and brain function. Understanding this system could pave the way for new therapies for sleep disorders and diseases tied to metabolism and the brain, including Alzheimer's and Parkinson's.
Ravens Training Camp Primer: Defensive Line
A look at the current state of the Baltimore Ravens' defensive line room ahead of training camp.
Could We Have Been Wrong About Fish Oil and Brain Health? New Study Raises Major Questions
Fish oil supplements delivered omega-3s to the brain, but a new study found that was not enough to improve cognitive health in older adults at risk for Alzheimer’s.
Ravens Training Camp Primer: Wide Receivers
A look at the current state of the Baltimore Ravens' wide receiver room ahead of training camp.
Health officials confirm measles case in Larimer County teenager
Officials say the teenager, who had not received the MMR vaccine, was likely exposed during recent travel abroad.
Why Leaders Lie: The Truth about Lying in International Politics
Lying seems to come naturally to political elites. Dr. Mark Thornton examines John J. Mearsheimer’s book, Why Leaders Lie: The Truth about Lying in International Politics to find out why elites lie so much.
Could your gut bacteria really slow Alzheimer’s? Scientists reveal a surprising link - Futura-Sciences
European researchers previously demonstrated that transferring stool samples from human Alzheimer’s patients into healthy rats triggered symptoms like spatial memory issues. Other models show that altering gut microbes changes the buildup of amyloid plaques and tau proteins, the two main hallmarks of the disease. Scientists have even found that certain...
Primer: 2 elite Michigan Football recruiting targets ready to commit
Decision day is here for 2 of Michigan Football’s top targets, including 5-star CB Joshua Dobson. We have that and more in today’s Recruiting Roundup:
Danny Glover Reveals Alzheimer’s Diagnosis on TODAY: EXCLUSIVE
The 79-year-old “Lethal Weapon” star shared with Lester Holt that he was diagnosed with the progressive neurodegenerative disease a few years ago.
If you’re at risk of Alzheimer’s, these dietary habits can help, study finds
Research suggests diet remains a relevant factor for brain health even after blood markers of dementia are present.
Scientists may have finally found how Alzheimer's spreads through the brain
A common brain protein may be giving Alzheimer’s disease an unexpected way to spread, carrying toxic Tau proteins from damaged neurons into healthy ones. By blocking these harmful protein packages before they reach new cells, researchers believe it may one day be possible to slow the disease's relentless progression.
Fish oil supplements no match for Alzheimer's risk, new study finds
A new study from the Keck School of Medicine at USC found a revelation regarding fish oil supplements. Here's the researchers' findings.
How a Brain Messenger Protein Drives Progression of Alzheimer’s Disease
In mice, a brain protein called Arc helps spread toxic molecules from sick brain cells to healthy ones. If therapies could be designed to target the spread, they could be a powerful tool to stop disease progression.
Millions take omega-3 fish oil for brain health but a new study found no benefit
Fish oil supplements successfully delivered omega-3s to the brain, but a two-year study found no meaningful benefits for memory, cognition, or Alzheimer’s-related brain changes. The results challenge the idea that fish oil pills can help prevent Alzheimer’s and shift attention toward overall diet and lifestyle instead.
Millions take omega-3 fish oil for brain health but a new study found no benefit
Fish oil supplements successfully delivered omega-3s to the brain, but a two-year study found no meaningful benefits for memory, cognition, or Alzheimer’s-related brain changes. The results challenge the idea that fish oil pills can help prevent Alzheimer’s and shift attention toward overall diet and lifestyle instead.
Alzheimer’s research headlines 2026 brain health summit
The summit, hosted by the University of Hawaii John A. Burns School of Medicine, highlighted the latest advances in Alzheimer’s research.
Alzheimer’s research headlines 2026 brain health summit
The event featured presentations on recent Alzheimer’s advancements.
Dolphins Training Camp Primer: Quarterbacks
A look at the Miami Dolphins' quarterbacks and where things may be headed during the 2026 season.
Jessica Plummer new deputy administrator of Behavioral Health Services
A founding department staff member, Jessica Plummer has stepped into the new role of deputy administrator for Larimer County Behavioral Health Services (BHS)
Making Our Own Luck
We are cross-posting a piece that former NIH official Kris Willis wrote for Macroscience. Kris is now the President and Founder of the Woodley Park Institute, for which I’m a board member. Picking winners or hedging bets? Federal science agencies have long wrestled with the question of how to ensure their billions of dollars of grants and contracts result in maximum benefits for Americans. On the surface, it might seem that a goal-oriented, interventionist style of management would be the best policy: prioritize our most pressing problems and distribute funding accordingly.This top-down strategy creates a unique hazard, though: bad choices can send resources in the wrong direction, resulting in slow progress that impedes the delivery of tangible benefits to citizens. Moreover, if decision makers pursue an applied advance when the underlying scientific principles remain poorly understood, they risk costly failures and a loss of support for the research enterprise at large. Examples include Nixon’s 1971 War on Cancer, undertaken on the premise that a cure could be achieved in less than a decade, the drive to build an operational commercial fusion plant by the mid-1990s, and the National Plan to Address Alzheimer’s Disease, which failed to produce the effective treatments and prevention strategies promised by 2025. The contrasting laissez-faire approach is to hedge your bets. If the path to an advance is impossible to predict, then the wisest choice might be to distribute funding to as widely as possible. The main risk of this strategy is that spreading funding thinly may limit the resources available to the most promising research, resulting in the same negative outcomes as the interventionist approach: limited support for the most promising topics, slow progress, and delayed returns. In reality, at science agencies like the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health, program managers navigate between these two extremes, setting some funds aside to target high-priority areas and using the rest to cover the widest possible range of meritorious proposals. This middle path seems like the most rational way to proceed, but it still requires making choices. How much should be set aside for high priority topics? What should those topics be? How should we define merit? Expert opinion can provide a helpful guide, but leading experts can have remarkably different opinions about what matters and what should be prioritized. Moreover, experts and administrators alike can be risk averse, giving an edge to high-profile, well-established concepts. What’s really needed is a data-driven framework to help guide decision-making, one that doesn’t simply repackage prestige or incumbency. Recognizing breakthroughs years in advance Many breakthroughs fail to attract funding or recognition at the earliest stages of development. Katalin Karikó, for example, spent years struggling to win grants for work on mRNA that would eventually win her and Drew Weissman a Nobel Prize. Similar stories can be told about Jim Allison’s groundbreaking studies leading to the development of cancer immunotherapy, Stan Pruisner’s demonstration that prions can self-replicate without DNA, or Robin Warren and Barry Marshall’s proof that Helicobacter pylori, not stress, causes ulcers. Yet at some point, the scientific community recognizes and responds to transformative breakthroughs like these. How does that change happen? And what if science funders could identify the areas that are on the cusp of a breakthrough? Those questions led my collaborators and me to study how scientists responded to past breakthroughs. Based on patterns in that data, we developed a means of predicting future breakthroughs, using biomedicine as a proof of concept. It’s worth taking a moment to describe how our approach works. Briefly, our prediction process begins by grouping the 18 million or so peer-reviewed papers in PubMed, the authoritative database of biomedical research, into roughly 50,000 unique topics. A small subset of these topics are so widely acclaimed as breakthroughs that they have been recognized with a major prize like a Nobel or a Lasker Award. We theorized that studying the development of these outliers over time, especially before they gained acclaim, was the key to identifying future instances of them. After defining topics, we chose 21 representative breakthroughs and asked what they looked like before they won prestigious prizes. To answer that question, we re-ran our topic-mapping algorithm repeatedly, winding back the clock one year each time, stringing together the years to follow the progress of each field as it grew and advanced. We found that in each case, the years leading up to a discovery followed a pattern: a burst of papers on a new, rapidly evolving topic, many of which quickly became influential. These characteristics—the percent of papers that are new, the percentage of papers that are brought in from other topics, and the influence of each individual paper—can all be measured separately for any given topic. Together, they act as a predictive signal that is detectable an average of five years before a transformative discovery is made, and up to thirty years before the discovery receives a major prize. Scanning the current research landscape for topics that display this signal allows us to predict what work will likely produce a future breakthrough. Each year we analyzed includes four or five signals, a number that appears to have remained constant across a twenty year time frame. In their classic work on the sociology of science, Bruno Latour and Steve Woolgar established that the desire to participate in a major discovery is an important motivator for scientists as they consider whether they should take up (or abandon) a research problem. Although further work is needed, the simplest explanation for our results is that this behavior is widespread enough to detect at scale. A foundational advance, or something like it, draws the attention of scientists and causes them to change the direction of their research. They vote with their feet, staking their own reputation and careers by publishing on and citing the new idea. That upswell of interest is the foundation of our breakthrough signal. What kind of research does our model identify as a breakthrough? After building a model based on the patterns in our 21 preselected breakthroughs, we tested it by identifying all early signals of discovery from 1994 through 1997. Of the 18 signals we found in that time period, 17 can be traced forward in time to a breakthrough. Examples include super-resolution fluorescence microscopy (see the image above), the directed evolution of proteins and enzymes (Chemistry Nobel, 2018), and sequencing the human genome (National Medal of Science, 2008). The discovery of the role of leptin signaling in obesity is a particularly interesting case study. Around 1950, scientists noticed the existence of a type of lab mouse that suffered from a unique inherited form of obesity. When given the freedom to choose their own diet, these mice ate more than normal and preferred food that was high in fat. Researchers had few clues as to why the animals overate; early experiments pointed to the existence of a soluble ob factor found circulating in the bloodstream that regulated appetite, but its identity was unknown. In 1994, Jeffrey Friedman and colleagues identified and sequenced the ob gene, noting that the protein it encoded appeared to fit the profile of a circulating factor. A year later, a trio of high-profile publications demonstrated that ob was a hormone that regulated body weight and fat deposition by regulating appetite. One of these was co-authored by Friedman, who christened it leptin from the ancient Greek word for thin. Using our model, the data from 1996 make it clear this advance would become a breakthrough. Scientists had flocked to study the biology of the new hormone, generating the flurry of new papers and citations required to produce a signal. One of these demonstrated that serum leptin concentrations reflected the amount of adipose tissue in the human body, providing clinical validation of the earlier mouse studies. Before the identification of leptin, scientists were unable to point to a specific molecule that controlled appetite and adiposity, so that it was impossible to rule out non-physiological causes of obesity; its characterization fundamentally changed our concept of weight gain. In 2010, Friedman and fellow pioneer Douglas Coleman were awarded a Lasker for the discovery. Our work also identifies breakthroughs in clinical practice and behavioral and social sciences, even though these areas are less likely to draw the attention of major prize committees. One example that falls into this category is the introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair, a minimally invasive surgical procedure for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm, a leading cause of death among Americans over the age of 65. Relative to the previous standard of care, it reduces in-hospital mortality by almost four-fold. In 2017, Timothy Chuter received the American College of Surgeons’ prestigious Jacobsen Innovation award for his multiple refinements to the technique. Another under-recognized breakthrough identified by our model is the development of standardized survey instruments to assess the quality of life for HIV+ patients. The antiretroviral cocktails introduced in the mid-1990s reduced AIDS mortality, but treatment came with serious side effects. The new evaluations showed that patients whose disease progressed had worse physical functioning than Americans with other chronic diseases, while those who were asymptomatic maintained a health-related quality of life on par with the overall US population. This evidence made it possible for patients and activists to argue that even in the absence of a total cure, and in spite of the side effects, alleviation of symptoms was a worthwhile priority for clinicians. My colleagues and I have failed to identify any significant recognition for the physicians and health policy experts who pioneered this advance, although in 2016, researchers called for the World Health Organization to set targets for good health-related quality of life as part of its framework to end the AIDS pandemic. From forecasting to funding How should science funders use our predictions? Any serious discussion of what we should do with this new capability needs to begin with an understanding of its limitations. We can’t (and shouldn’t) invest all of our resources in the small number of topics predicted to produce breakthroughs. Innovative new fields are born from existing ones; they rarely arise de novo. If funders don’t maintain a diverse portfolio, the breakthroughs of tomorrow will have no antecedents. Think of this as eating the seed corn, or killing the goose that lays the golden egg. There are also multiple goals of funding beyond basic scientific discovery, including translating discoveries into clinical practice, developing new technologies, supporting economic development, and training new scientists. The investments needed to accomplish these goals are likely different from those required to support emerging breakthroughs. Finally, we must be aware that we may not capture every instance of a breakthrough. The concept is fuzzy, and not every significant discovery is recognized with a major award. Further, breakthroughs are rare, meaning that our dataset is, by necessity, small. This makes formal estimates of accuracy challenging. Although our overall success rate appears to be high, any one signal may turn out to be a false positive. We found one apparent example: the development of the third generation COX-2 inhibitors, Vioxx and Celebrex, which were much celebrated in the early 2000s as effective but non-addictive pain relievers, meets all the algorithmic criteria of a breakthrough. Five years after it received FDA approval, researchers demonstrated that Vioxx was associated with serious cardiovascular complications, and the manufacturer voluntarily pulled the drug from the market. Celebrex remains available, although like other NSAIDs, it carries an FDA warning for increased cardiovascular risk. Decision makers who were overly focused on the breakthrough potential of this research might have wasted substantial resources nurturing an area that ultimately proved to be a failure—but so would those who relied on expert opinion at the time. That said, the potential benefits of funding the next mRNA vaccine or cancer immunotherapy years earlier than we might have are large. When we can’t assume the outcome of an action, it’s worth conducting an experiment. Can targeted support for areas that are poised to produce a breakthrough increase the return on scientific investment without cannibalizing future advances? With the necessary administrative infrastructure in place, conducting this experiment would be straightforward. First, identify all the breakthrough signals between 2018 and 2023, select half at random, and commit to a decade of investment. For biomedicine, a six year window should yield about 30 topics with the potential to produce a breakthrough. Providing strong support to half of these might be accomplished for $300 million a year. That’s roughly half of the recent annual budget of the NIH Common Fund or around 20% of the fiscal year 2025 budget for ARPA-H. After five years, then again at ten, compare to see which group — the one that was actively managed, or the control — produced more breakthroughs, and on what timescale. Although we used biomedicine as an example, the same experiment could just as well be run for physics, materials science, or any other discipline. Any attempt to undertake such an experiment should keep three points top of mind. First, we can predict the topic of future breakthroughs, but the people and vision for how to move the work forward are still important. In practice, this means success requires active program managers with the expertise to develop the science and the authority to do so, including by recruiting investigators. Second, we would be wise to learn from the failures of past attempts to fund transformative research. High among these are funding modestly repackaged work, confusing the genuinely novel with the merely unfamiliar, and relying too much on incumbent investigators. All of these risks can be mitigated by thoroughly and intelligently integrating high quality data into portfolio management. Finally, we need to have patience. Even with strong funding support, producing a breakthrough takes time. If supporting breakthroughs is the best way to nurture the birth of new fields, we also need to accurately describe and properly manage the other two stages, so that we invest wisely throughout the productive lifetime of ideas and divest once they reach the point of diminishing returns. We would benefit from more study of all of these phases, especially the transition from one to another. More research could answer questions like: When does a breakthrough become an established field? How do the availability of funding, the size and characteristics of the available workforce, and the accumulation of evidence that disagrees with prevailing models affect a field’s decline? Exactly how do old ideas give birth to new ones, and can we speed up the process? The more we understand about the dynamics of scientific progress, the better we can maximize the odds that our curiosity leads to results. I’d call that finding a way to make our own luck.
Free Fireworks and Live Music at Herkimer College
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Lifestyle changes can reduce risk of Alzheimer’s disease and other forms of dementia but a poll shows many Michiganders over 50 don’t know about or do them.