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US judge rejects bid to break up Google's ad business
A US federal judge on Wednesday refused to force Google to sell a division of its digital advertising business, rejecting the government's push to break up part of the company's ad empire.The decision is the second time in recent years that a federal judge has declined to dismantle a piece of Google's business, after a judge last year refused to force the sale of its Chrome browser in a separate monopoly case over online search.
Judge rules Google does not have to break up ad tech business
A federal judge ruled Wednesday that Google does not have to break up its advertising technology business after finding last year that the search giant held an illegal monopoly over the industry. U…
‘Balancing act’ helps keep colorectal cancer in check
Study finds that a balance of two closely related cell surface proteins may be critical to the health of the epithelial lining of the gastrointestinal tract.
Mario Kart 8 Just Got a Game-Changing Update for Nintendo Switch 2
Nintendo's Switch 2 update for Mario Kart 8 Deluxe is just bonkers
Days After GTA 6's Big Reveal, Rockstar Announces A Major GTA 5 Update
Grand Theft Auto 5 will introduce a revamped world with better NPCs in addition to other improvements, Rockstar says
Kalshi, Polymarket, growing as political platforms
How election pollsters think about about the rise of prediction markets.
New Sony Policy Could Lead To Legal Action Against Vocal PS5 Disc Critics
Sony announces aggressive new measures amid an ongoing PS5 protest that has plagued games like Marvel's Wolverine
‘Most’ of Star Wars Zero Company studio Bit Reactor was furloughed ahead of launch
Last week was meant to be a moment of triumph for Bit Reactor, the Maryland-based game studio founded in 2021 with ambitions to create a great new tactical combat game. On Thursday, August 27, Bit Reactor’s debut title, Star Wars Zero Company, released to stellar reviews. And, from the Gamescom show in Cologne, Germany, studio co-founder Greg Foertsch was giving interviews discussing what the studio’s next game may be. But for many developers on the game, launch has been bittersweet. Fans love it. Critics prefer it to most recent Star Wars games. Zero Company, which is out for PS5, Xbox Series consoles and PC, is the top-selling game on Steam. Much of the team that made it, however, is currently going without pay. They were furloughed, just weeks ahead of the game’s launch. A rep for Bit Reactor confirmed to Game File today that the studio had furloughed many of its workers prior to the game’s release. They said it was a difficult decision and one that had been made before it was clear how launch would go. The rep emphasized that the call to do this was Bit Reactor’s alone (meaning not from publisher EA nor Star Wars license holder Disney). While the rep declined to comment on the scale of the furloughs, a previously unreported lawsuit brought by studio co-founder Alison Kelly in 2024 noted in a filing from August 12 of this year that Bit Reactor “has furloughed most of its employees and terminated contractors…” One source told Game File the furloughs impacted 80% of the team; another referred to there only being a skeleton crew left on Bit Reactor’s active payroll, ready to address any of Zero Company’s post-launch bugs. The issue is that Bit Reactor, a studio formed in 2021, had run out of most of its money just ahead of the launch of its first game. Over the weekend, Zachariah Scott, a senior technical artist who worked at Bit Reactor from early 2023 until an acrimonious exit this past May, said on LinkedIn that the studio was “concealing the fact that the team was Furloughed weeks ago.” Reached by phone today, Scott told Game File that he spoke to nearly a dozen Bit Reactor workers over the weekend. “Everybody has essentially the same story, which is, ‘Yeah, I got furloughed three weeks ago.” The Bit Reactor rep told Game File that the studio hoped to bring furloughed workers back, suggesting that a successful launch of the game could be impactful. Scott told Game File that workers he spoke to were less confident that even if there were returns, that all who were furloughed would get their old jobs again. A heated dispute Bit Reactor’s mid-2026 was almost even more tumultuous. The lawsuit by co-founder Alison Kelly that first revealed the furloughs was initially slated to go to trial in June. The suit is a she-said/he-said about whether Kelly, until 2024 the chief operating officer of Bit Reactor, was a co-owner of the studio or whether it was solely owned by Greg Foertsch. In July 2024, Kelly sued, saying she was pushed out by Foertsch. She first sued in federal court and later refiled in Maryland’s Baltimore County, alleging breach of contract and that Foertsch had unjustly enriched himself. Kelly cited damages of over $20 million, on the basis of Bit Reactor allegedly being worth more than double that. Foertsch’s side has said Kelly was never a co-owner and has countered with claims about her job performance (which she has denied). The June trial was postponed until early 2027, as both sides have been deposing witnesses and filing more claims and denials along the way. Amid all of that, filings in the lawsuit reviewed by Game File paint a picture about Bit Reactor’s origins, early aspirations around tactics games, the team’s breakthrough in drawing the attention of Electronic Arts with the help of a pitch tied to one of EA’s non-Star Wars franchises, and early fractures among its co-founders. The real story about the company behind Zero Company
PS5 Officially Has 5 GOTY Contenders Coming in September
Too many new games, too little time
Naughty Dog Confirms Major Intergalactic Milestone Ahead of Sony's State of Play
Intergalactic: The Heretic Prophet gets an important update ahead of State of Play
Fable Leans Hard on "Limitless" Life Sim and RPG Gameplay
The upcoming release of the Fable reboot has generated quite a bit of hype, with the studio behind the game recently revealing some impressively forgiving minimum hardware requirements for PC gamers. Following that reveal, Polygon published an interview with Xbox about Fable and its content,...
California to get more power to sue big businesses under anti-monopoly bill going to Newsom
California prosecutors would gain new powers to sue big businesses over anti-competitive practices under a bill Democratic lawmakers sent to Gov. Gavin Newsom.
Fable Will Officially Be 20 Hours Long, Xbox Confirms In New Interview
But you can 'literally play it forever' if you want
GTA 6's Main Story Took a Rockstar Dev 80 Hours To Beat
Rockstar North's Rob Nelson says he mostly stuck to the main quests in GTA 6, which is reportedly three times bigger than RDR2
Say Hello To GTA 6's Awesome New Dialogue System
Netflix's extended look revealed how Jason and Lucia will speak during GTA 6's story, and how NPCs have been reworked for a more realistic experience
Political operatives warn campaigns: Don’t trust prediction markets
Political prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are gaining traction, but campaign operatives warn their election odds can be misleading.
PlayStation Plus September 2026 Free Games Lineup Officially Revealed, Includes a Great Retro RPG
PS Plus subscribers get four games in September
MFU Foundation report finds that small businesses are squeezed by anticompetitive conduct
PAUL, Minn. - Growing monopoly power and anticompetitive conduct across the economy are key reasons rural Minn...
Pragmata is Finally, Officially a 'Mega Man Game'
Pragmata and Mega Man are finally connected — just not in the way fans expected.
A look inside Iran: Professor outlines sentiment, cost pressures & politics
Seyed Emamian from Tehran Polytechnic University and co-founder of Iran's Governance & Policy Think Tank discusses daily life in Tehran amid the war, and why he thinks Iranians now see no chance of a peaceful deal with President Trump.
'GTA 6' Leak Reveals New Feature Rockstar Was Probably Saving For Netflix
The world of Grand Theft Auto 6 will be impacted by its evolved day and night cycle
Final Fantasy Resonance is Going All In On the Series' Golden Age
Time to fire up the airship and track down some crystals
A spatially programmable microfluidic chip for multi-stage particle and cell separation
A programmable microfluidic device developed at Institute of Science Tokyo, Japan, combines deterministic lateral displacement, a microfluidic technique that is used to separate particles according to their size, with temperature-responsive polymer micropillars to dynamically change the separation conditions along a single channel. Using this device, the researchers successfully separated multiple particle populations. Additionally, they efficiently isolated viable cancer cells, white blood cells, and red blood cells from diluted whole blood.
Pelican Unveils Next-Generation Protector Cases with Advanced HPX Polymer Science & Modular Accessories
Pelican Products recently launched its Next Generation Protector series, upgrading its namesake case line with advanced polymer formulations and modular...
Gamescom Is Officially the Biggest Gaming Event in the World. So What’s Next?
Is it coming to North America?
Scientists turn tiny “defects” into a 5.5x heat transfer boost
Scientists have developed an ultrathin coating that could dramatically improve how efficiently heat is transferred during condensation. By turning tiny polymer structures once considered “defects” into places where water droplets can form, then helping those droplets detach quickly, the new surface keeps exposing fresh areas for condensation. In tests on copper tubes, it transferred heat up to 5.5 times more effectively than conventional copper and more than 50% better than a standard water-repelling coating.
The 10 Best SNES Games to Play on Nintendo Switch Online
There's never been a better run than this
10 Classic Game Series That Started on the SNES
Some of the biggest series around got their start on the Super Nintendo, 35 years ago.
California's clashes over business regulation rage on as legislative session nears end
Unions, consumer groups, personal injury lawyers and environmentalists are battling business groups over surveillance pricing and anti-monopoly bills.
Michiganders for Money Out Of Politics faces final hurdles: Lawsuit, Legislature
This article first appeared on Planet Detroit and is republished here under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. The days and weeks ahead are crucial to the outcome of a ballot drive to ban campaign contributions by Michigan’s monopoly utilities. The Michiganders for Money Out of Politics ballot proposal has received needed approvals for ballot language and petition […]
'GTA 6' Leak Shows New Unofficial Gameplay Ahead of Netflix Reveal
New GTA 6 footage shows some optional leisure activities for Jason and Lucia while also showing off some impressive water graphics
New research reveals mental health toll of endometriosis and PMOS
Nearly 1 in 2 women with endometriosis or polyendocrine metabolic ovarian syndrome (PMOS) report depression, according to new national research, prompting calls for mental health support to be integrated ...
The Upgraded Polymega Features A New Disc Tray Design In Addition To "Improved Game Performance"
Pre-orders are going fast
Bethesda Warns Skyrim & Fallout 4 Players of Mod-breaking Update
Steam players on PC will be especially affected once Bethesda releases the patches for its RPGs on August 18.
Marvel Cosmic Invasion Doctor Doom DLC Arrives this Fall
The Siege of Castle Doom includes a brand-new game mode
Reviews Hail New Action-RPG as 2026’s Best Soulslike
The sequel is far from a shell of the original
BUSINESS ‘Punk, intense and all-encompassing’: Chicagoan Dawn Heilung brings trans artists into focus
Gender Fucked Productions (Gender Fucked) Founder and former Executive Director and Artistic Director Dawn Heilung uses many labels to describe themselves— queer, bisexual, pansexual, polyamorous, trans, non-binary, transfeminine—because “I don’t think one can fully encompass my experience.” “I started [the trans, enby and queer arts and event production focused nonprofit] Gender Fucked Productions in 2022 because […]
'Persona 5' And More Iconic Games Will Dominate The Next Season Of Fortnite
Fortnite Chapter 7 Season 4: Override begins on August 20 and is full of gaming crossovers
Polymarket Promo Code SBWIRE Get $20 Bonus for NFL, Politics & More For August
Use Polymarket promo code SBWIRE to skip the waitlist AND claim a $20 bonus with a $10 deposit welcome offer. Start trading prediction markets immediately.
'Rideshare Stimulator' Developers Disclose AI Use Steam After Days Of Controversy
It appears the Rideshare Stimulator AI saga is finally over
Curiosity stumbles upon a gigantic Martian “honeycomb” that has scientists intrigued - Futura-Sciences
In a 360-degree panorama captured by the rover on June 19 and 20, the 4,930th and 4,931st Martian days, or sols, of the mission, the polygonal shapes stretch in every direction as far as the rover can see. They even extend around the sides of a nearby butte nicknamed “Miraflores,”...
Nintendo's GameCube-Era Tantrum Doomed the Console but Saved the Company
Nintendo kicked and screamed against PlayStation and its own fans, but it all worked out in the end
Baltimore lawsuits allege illegal sports betting, prediction market gambling on Kalshi, Polymarket
The city of Baltimore is suing two companies over allegations of illegal sports betting and prediction-market gambling.
Baltimore sues Kalshi and Polymarket for offering unlicensed sports betting
The battle between sportsbooks and prediction markets continues, in the form of states and local governments attempting to shut down what arguably amounts to unlicensed bookmaking.
Baltimore sues Kalshi and Polymarket for offering unlicensed sports betting
The battle between sportsbooks and prediction markets continues, in the form of states and local governments attempting to shut down what arguably amounts to unlicensed bookmaking.
24 Years Later, Nintendo’s Most Divisive Game Officially Returns to Switch 2 Better Than Ever
It still shines to this day
Polymarket Promo Code SBWIRE Get $20 Bonus for NFL, Politics & More For August
Use Polymarket promo code SBWIRE to skip the waitlist AND claim a $20 bonus with a $10 deposit welcome offer. Start trading prediction markets immediately.
Stop Killing Games Joins Dutch Consumer Group's $457M Lawsuit Against Sony Over Digital Store 'Monopoly'
The Stop Killing Games movement is officially suing Sony, claiming the company’s “monopoly” over the video game market is blatantly “against the law.”
Stop Killing Games Joins Lawsuit Against Sony's Digital 'Monopoly'
Both Stop Killing Games and DoesItPlay are lending their support to a lawsuit against the digital 'monopoly'
Playstation Announces 'Marvel's Wolverine' Limited Edition PS5 and Controller
Here's when you can pre-order the Marvel's Wolverine PS5 and DualSense controller
After 41 Years, Super Mario Bros. Players Are Close to Achieving a Perfect Playthrough
Speedrunners have nearly pulled off the impossible
Polymarket Promo Code SBWIRE Get $20 Bonus for NFL, Politics & More For August
Use Polymarket promo code SBWIRE to skip the waitlist AND claim a $20 bonus with a $10 deposit welcome offer. Start trading prediction markets immediately.
He Died Before Beating Zelda. She’s Finishing What He Started.
How The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom allowed one young woman to process the death of a loved one
Can GTA 6 Replicate the Greatest Video Game Launch of All Time?
The red carpet is ready to roll
25 Years Ago, This Critically Acclaimed RPG Heralded the End of an Era
Though a new dawn may be breaking again
Pokémon's Newest DLC Still Falls Short of Palworld In One Major Way
At least my Pals care enough to help
Blizzard Officially Reveals Overwatch's Newest Hero, D.Mon, with First Gameplay
D.Mon joins D.Va on D.Roster of Overwatch
Splatoon Raiders' August Update Introduces the Change Most Requested by Players
No more trouble with the tank's limiter!
Onimusha: Way of the Sword Preview Teases More Capcom 2026 Domination
This is the way (of the sword)
Butterfly lilies wing their way to Science
Many animals and plants show left-right differences in how their bodies or organs are arranged, but we still know little about how such asymmetries evolve or how genes control them in natural populations. Mirror-image flowers, in which female and male sex organs are deflected to opposite sides in left- and right-handed forms, provide a notable example of such asymmetry. Here, we studied South African butterfly lilies, where individual plants produce only left- or right-handed flowers. Their mirror-image flowers promote outcrossing by depositing pollen from each floral form onto a specific region of a pollinator’s body that matches the stigma position of the opposite form. This suggests that selection for efficient pollen transfer between forms maintains this natural polymorphism. Our work uncovers a hemizygous supergene that coordinates the left-right orientation of female and male sex organs in mirror-image flowers by linking two independently acting genes for style and stamen handedness in a single, nonrecombining genomic segment. This architecture ensures the coinheritance of a matched pair of organ orientations that is essential for efficient cross-pollination between floral forms. At the developmental level, we show that floral handedness emerges from the interaction between an intrinsic tissue chirality and a gravitropic response that orients the style and median stamen relative to gravity. Together, these findings reveal how a supergene, hormone and microRNA signaling, tissue chirality, and an external physical cue combine to produce and maintain a stable left-right polymorphism in natural plant populations.
Pokémon Pokopia's new DLC finally reveals which universe the game is set in
A shared universe between spin-off games
Halo remake isn't doing so hot on PS5 compared to Black Ops ports
Two old Call of Duty games are outselling the new Halo remake at more than 30:1.
Scientists turn one of the world's most hated plastics into premium lubricant
Polyvinyl chloride, or PVC, is among the most common plastics on the planet but also one of the hardest to recycle responsibly. In a new study in Nature, scientists describe a method to strip chlorine from PVC and convert the remaining material into synthetic lubricant-based oils that perform competitively with commercial products.
Marvel Rivals season 9.5 will finally address a growing issue with NetEase's hero shooter
Season 9.5 brings a long overdue fix for Marvel Rivals' ballooning file size
Chartbook 464 The"China squeeze" - the politics of development counterfactuals.
There are three types of China shock discourse. Each has a distinct temporal register. China shock 1.0 was a phrase coined by US academics in the 2010s to retrospectively summarize the impact on particular US labour markets, which they identified through painstaking empirical investigation. China shock 2.0 on everyone’s lips in Europe in the mid 2020s is an alarm raised by trans-Atlantic policy thinkers warning of a coming disaster which they project onto Europe’s ailing car industry. The third type of China shock discourse - commonly known as the “China squeeze” launched most recently by Indian economists Shoumitro Chatterjee and Arvind Subramanian in the pages of Foreign Affairs - mobilizes a different, more speculative temporal register: the counterfactual realm of alternate history. The China squeeze argument asks not what has happened, or what is going to happen, but what might have been. Specifically, what options for economic development might have been open to Global South economies like India or the economies of sub-Saharan Africa, had it not been for China’s spectacular industrialization since the late 1990s and the persistent competitiveness of China’s manufacture in low-skilled segments. Chatterjee and Subramanian’s argument is that whilst China has built a powerful position in electrical machinery and other high-skill manufacturing, which is now delivering China Shock 2.0, it also continues to run a trade surplus in low-skill, labour-intensive manufacturing. This surplus is large and has remained largely unchanged in fifteen years. Indeed, in the 2010s, in trade with low-income countries, China’s surplus rapidly increased. On their reading, this squeezes low-income producers in low-skill sectors in which they “should” be able to compete. Source: “China’s Mercantilist Squeeze on Developing Countries” Shoumitro Chatterjee and Arvind Subramanian. Peterson Institute for International Economics 26-7 May 2026 Chatterjee and Subramanian’s wording is telling: (emphasis mine) The canonical trajectory of economic development in the post-World War II period is for countries to transition from agriculture to manufacturing, first in low-skilled manufacturing and then later on to high-skill manufacturing (Herrendorf, Rogerson, and Valentinyi 2013). At the global level, this implies that high-income countries (HICs) that once specialized in low-skilled activities cede manufacturing export space to poorer countries that come along to occupy that space. In 1965, advanced economies accounted for about 60 percent of global value-added exports in four key low-skilled manufacturing sectors, i.e., apparel, leather, textiles, and footwear. Over time this share declined and began to be occupied first by the East Asian tigers and, beginning in the late 1990s, by China. Today China accounts for about 50 percent of the global market. The question is whether China, with its rising prosperity, is continuing to behave like its richer counterparts and ceding export space to poorer followers or to behave unlike them and continuing to occupy space. In terms of the conceptual maneuvers it performs, of the three China shock discourses, the “China squeeze” argument is by far the most ambitious. After all, it bases its critique of China on a counterfactual imagining of the world. Like any counterfactual argument, to construct this alternative reality it must rely on a heuristic model. To make their argument Chatterjee and Subramanian mobilize two key claims. The first reference point is the actual history of rich-country industrialization, what they refer to as the “canonical path”. The idea is that countries transition from agriculture to light industry and low-skilled manufacturing and from there up the value chain. To make this useful as a standard of comparison and a means to construct a normative standard, they adjust sectoral export shares for two factors: 1. the underlying level of economic development of the exporting country, as measured by national income and 2. the degree to which the sector in question is internationalized. The idea being that for a high income country to have a high export share in low-skill sectors is anomalous and even more so if that particular product is highly internationalized and thus suitable for being “conceded” to lower-income competitors. Where should this process end? Here Chatterjee and Subramanian introduce their second benchmark. Their normative idea of a global development path is one in which, in due course, low-skill manufacturing exports are distributed in proportion to a country’s share in the global labour force. They imagine, in other words, a world of proportional, polycentric global development without much national specialization in low-skill manufacturing. A useful benchmark is that, in labor-intensive manufacturing sectors, a country’s share of world exports should be broadly commensurate with its share of the world’s low-skilled labor endowment. … In the Heckscher-Ohlin model, this would be true if value added per worker and export propensities, i.e., fraction of output that is exported, are the same across countries. It is this pleasant liberal vista of orderly global development, progressing towards a general distribution of low-skilled manufacturing against which they judge reality and conclude that the low-income countries are suffering a “China squeeze”. China is not exiting low-skill sectors fast enough Allowing for its gdp level and the degree of globalization, China’s share of low-skill manufacturing exports is far higher than it “should” be. Relative to population, its low-skill share of exports is far too high. That in turn yields the conclusion that huge numbers of jobs - the authors suggest tens of millions - are being hoarded by China. For the four sectors captured in figure 4, this excess in value-added exports is $110 billion in 2022. For all low-skilled sectors overall captured in appendix figure D.1, excess value-added exports amount to $365 billion. The crowding out of LMIC exports by China is therefore substantial. Both these claims have in common that they are strong structuralisms. The first is that development paths ought to resemble each other. The second is that broadly speaking as far as low-skilled manufacturing is concerned, all countries are alike. If the world currently diverges from the distribution of trade implied by these assumptions, if China is not following the advanced economy path and has huge exports, this must be the result of “policy”, which the authors then put in question as illegitimate or unfair. Thus the naturalistic construction of a canonical path leading to a “level” distribution of low-skilled manufacturing reveals itself to be a polemical tool. From the point of view of China shock polemics, this discourse is no doubt welcome. But as an account of economic history, it must surely be regarded as nothing short of bamboozling. Development paths do not follow a regular, natural sequence. As David Fishman put it aptly, “development is not a queue”. They are always and everywhere, through and through political. Development is not so much a process, as a project. Each such project is more or less well adjusted to its context. As Gerschenkron taught uneven and combined development implies differentiation rather than simple imitation on a single parth. It may be true that Europe and the US exited relatively early from low-skill work. But clearly technology has changed. As C&S themselves point out, China no longer enjoys a low wage environment. Do they really believe that such huge differences can be accounted for either by industrial policy, which as they admit does not operate powerfully in low-skill sectors, or by exchange rate manipulation? What is overwhelmingly dominant in explaining the persistence of “low-skill” manufacturing in China are surely the network effects of complex supply chains. Indeed the label of “low-skill” may miss the point. The degree of globalization which Chatterjee and Subramanian decide to conjure away in their model of the development path - to allow for the fact that Europe and American textiles exporters did not enjoy just-in-time logistics in the 1950s - obscures the point that the networks through which Chinese factories supply the world are themselves key parts of the low-skill industrialization project. China isn’t knocking out 1970s style “cheap”. It has redefined the entire product cycle. C&S’s casual reference to “T-shirts” is telling. In today’s “fast fashion”, there is weight on both terms. Fashion and fast. China’s success in delivering on both at unprecedentedly high speed and at unprecedentedly low cost, isn’t a low-skill operation at all. If we see development trajectories not as the serial repetition of the same, but as distinctive, crafted projects that cumulate in complex agglomerations of skill, technology and labor, then this explains why the assumption that low-skilled manufacturing should follow the distribution of population flies in the face of all experience. As countless cases attest, low-wage, low-income developed economies are not by themselves the makings of a competitive production base. As Leon Liao puts it quite fairly: “International trade has never been allocated according to population. A country’s population gives it no natural claim to an equivalent share of global exports." And the remarkable fact is that Subramanian alone and with co-authors has long been making this point, not to pillory China, as is the case of the tendentious _Foreign Affair_s and Peterson pieces, but to highlight the great counterpart to China’s industrial success, namely India’s relative failure. The much-quoted Foreign Affairs piece showed low-skill export shares only for China, not for India. If you put both countries in the picture as Chaterjee and Subramanian have done on other occasions, the picture looks like this. China is far above the line, but India, almost as large in terms of population, is no less anomalous, just in the opposite direction. As far as global populations are concerned, and the imagining of tens of millions of “squeezed” jobs, it is this Sino-Indian pair that account for a huge share of the action. What this graph reveals is not China’s cheating, but India’s “greatest development failure”, at least this is the argument made Arvind Subramanian, this time in co-authorship with Devesh Kapur, in their major book, A Sixth of Humanity. Independent India’s Development Odyssey which appeared with Oxford University Press earlier this year. In this highly critical work on India’s development, China is repeatedly evoked, not to criticize but as a benchmark against which to illuminate what India’s political economy has not delivered i.e. large-scale formal employment for hundreds of millions of citizens. Kapur and Subramanian leave no doubt, if you want to understand why China, not India was the main driver of manufacturing globalization from the 1980s, don’t look to slots opening up in the division of labour thanks to the liberal mindedness of advanced economies, look to the contrasting political economy of the Maoist PRC and India’s post-independence political economy. As Kapur and Subramian note: The great divergence between China and India did not begin in 1978 with the Deng reforms—it was well underway by then. In one of the great ironies of modern history, the conditions created by Maoism turned out to be a great launching pad for industrial globalization. As the comparison of India and China in 1980 makes clear, to imagine manufacturing would be equally distributed when populations are so differently endowed in terms of educational and nutritional is fanciful. Here is the data from Kapur and Subramanian, data which I explored back at the very beginning of Chartbook. As Kapur and Subramanian insist, the striking fact is that even as India’s growth accelerated from the 1980s, structural change has not. Formal employment in India lags woefully behind. Why? As Kapur and Subramanian note, the path-dependent impact of India’s poor early start was devastating. The list of factors they mention is long and weighty: We argue for a new five-fold explanation applicable at different stages of Indian history: in the initial stages, the legacy of two key pre-1980s policies, the neglect of agriculture and the strangling of the domestic private sector, were critical. The failure of broad-based agricultural growth militated against rural industrialization, which would have been devoted to satisfying local needs that would have necessarily been labour intensive. Then, when the boom came after 1980, the thicket of regulation and broader labour protections that were legislated prematurely in a nascent democracy, underpinned by a deep ideological aversion to private capital in general and big capital specifically, became a barrier to attaining the size that would be necessary to compete globally. Similarly, the reforms after 1991, while wide-ranging, did not quite encompass non-tradeable inputs critical to manufacturing, namely, land, logistics infrastructure and power. A combination of low investment (logistics infrastructure), regulation (land) and the continued monopoly supply by state governments (power), combined with residual socialism, kept costs at 75–100 per cent above efficient supply. These factors were compounded on the supply side by the government, which dominated the formal labour market and established exorbitantly high wages at the lower end of the skill spectrum. This made their employment in the labour-intensive sector by the private sector less attractive. Finally, when the services sector and its exports boomed, wages soared even further via a Dutch Disease effect: one successful tradeable sector killed and cannibalized another less-skilled tradable sector, namely, manufacturing. Thus, scarcity-inducing policies of the planning era, precocious democracy and a Gandhian aversion to size; inefficient, monopolistic supply of critical non-tradable inputs; the behemoth of government; and super-successful skill-intensive services successively undermined India’s unskilled labour employment opportunities. The employment failure seems to have been over-determined. … Less quantifiable but no less important are some of the sociological factors that have undermined manufacturing and factory jobs. Take the impact of the success of the IT sector—located in urban areas with better working conditions, such as air-conditioned offices, good schools for children and attractive entertainment options. It became a more attractive place for engineering and management graduates to flock to. … Consider manufacturing and female employment. Indian society makes it difficult for women to work, reflected in India’s unusually low female labour force participation (elaborated in Chapter XIII). Indian society, in particular the routine harassment of women in public spaces, makes it even more difficult for them to travel long distances to take up work.37 Combined with onerous regulations on creating hostels and dormitories for women—which, in turn, prevents multiple shifts of operation—factories need to be located in areas with a large female labour pool. While firms can take apparel plants to female labour or bring them to the plants by building large-scale dormitories, this raises costs. If there was a case for subsidies to encourage labour-intensive manufacturing, housing subsidies to build dormitories for women workers would be a good place to start. All of this meant, that when opportunities did open up, in part thanks to adjustments in China, India was in no position to take advantage. Here is the account of the 2020s from Kapur and Subramanian. It stands in dizzying contrast to the one-sided, “China squeeze” argument delivered in the Peterson and Foreign Affairs pieces: In 2022, for example, India’s share of global exports in clothing (the canonical labour-intensive sector) was 3.1 per cent compared to 32 per cent for China. This is extremely disappointing because China started vacating export space in this sector after the Global Financial Crisis as its wages started rising; it then vacated further space in the aftermath of geopolitical developments that led investors to seek alternative investment locations. Between its peak and today, China lost about 7.5 percentage points of global export share (worth about $43 billion in 2022); over this period, India’s export share remained stagnant at 3 per cent, while that of Vietnam and Bangladesh rose by 3.5 to 4 percentage points. China’s loss did not translate into any gain for India in terms of low-skill exports and employment. Put differently, when the conditions for dynamism and prosperity were established after 1991, and even more tantalizingly when the global export opportunities opened up, it was as if India was a high-wage economy and only skilled labour could benefit from the dynamism. It had converted its physically abundant unskilled workforce into an economically expensive resource, penalizing its use. It is not my mission here to argue for or against Kapur and Subramanian’s interpretation of India’s development trajectory. The point in this context is simply that the “China squeeze” such as it is can only be understood, in relation to the heavy burden of domestic constraints that Kapur and Subramanian so unsparingly enumerate. I am concentrating here on India because it is the great counterpart to China and the unspoken reference point of the “China squeeze” discourse. But the point is more general. Can anyone with a straight face suggest that the main problems afflicting the development of South Africa or Nigeria, the great centers of mass underemployment in sub-saharan Africa, are cheap competition from China driven by Beijing’s industrial policy and an undervalued RMB? Likewise, is the main problem of the American working-class the threat of Chinese competition or the manifest crisis of social reproduction in the United States itself? The point here, as in the discourse around China shock 2.0 in Europe, is to insist that we should not normalize the world and pathologize China, without actually investigating what is going on in America’s industrial wastelands, the German car industry, or India’s lopsided labour market. One-sided pathologization should be understood for what it is, a polemical gesture. Concepts like China shock and China squeeze are, what Reinhart Koselleck, following Carl Schmitt, would have described as “asymmetrische Kampfbegriffe”, or “asymmetrical counter-concepts” or “asymmetrical combat concepts”. If the function of arguments like the “China squeeze” is to alert elites in the rest of the world of the need to rejuvenate and energize their development projects, so be it. But let us see the resulting discourses as the mobilizing interventions that they are. Interestingly, a significant slice of China’s public sphere - the so-called industrial party - have been obsessed for the last twenty years with precisely these questions of counterfactual economic history. Since the mid 2000s, a massive online discourse developed around an alternative history in which Chinese techno-patriots were asked to imagine how they would proceed if they had the possibility of traveling back in time to transport modern technology into the Ming dynasty (1368-1644) thus averting the “great divergence” of the 18th and 19th centuries. It is a fantasy of course, but also a goad. The point was not directed at Westerners. The alternate history is dramatically nationalist, but few n the West had even heard of it until recently. The adherents of the industrial party are not liberal moralists. They don’t project natural ladders of international development and ask why others don’t cede space. They take the Realpolitik of global economic development for granted. Their pointe was directed against fellow Chinese. The rallying cry of the alternative narrative was this: Now that we are beginning to gain steam and push forward on our national development path, now that we are breaking out of the inferior position assigned to us even in the early years following WTO accession, do not lose yourself in humanistic imaginings about better futures. In the spirit of Deng, they called on China to embrace the hard truth of development. Perhaps one might of the Industrial Party as a cultural trend born out of desire for symbolic revenge against those who had inflicted the century of humiliation. In terms of the various temporalities of the “China shock” - retrospective, prospective and counterfactual - one might think of the Industrial Policy discourse as truly speculative, conjuring up the China shock that never was. Or perhaps one might better think of it as imagining a world in which a powerful China was no shock at all, but simply a defining fact of modern history. I love putting out Chartbook. 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Baldur's Gate 3 devs share more wild statistics, like what NPCs died the most
Also: Behold, Bald Lae'zel
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MrBeast Sales Slow, Angel Stock Falls, MUBI and Neon Look for Hits, and Will an NBA Franchise Set a Sales Record?
(Welcome to the Entertainment Strategy Guy, a newsletter on the entertainment industry and business strategy. I write a weekly Streaming Ratings Report and a bi-weekly strategy column, along with occasional deep dives into other topics, like today’s article. Please subscribe.) You probably remember egg prices spiking a few years ago. This led to a lot of debate between the pro-market/pro-competition/antitrust/Neo-Brandesian crowd and the center/center-right/center-left/abundance/libertarian crowd over the cause, whether it was the avian flu outbreak or whether industry consolidation led to price fixing, using avian flu as a convenient cover. Basel Musharbash wrote a whole investigation at BIG looking at it. Well, two years later, we have our answer: it was price fixing. The Justice Department found proof, via emails, of price fixing. Indeed, just the threat of an investigation brought prices down two years ago: I bring this up because at least half a dozen of my favorite political writers and pundits, who were skeptical about price fixing at the time, haven’t written any mea culpas on this issue. It’s really dispiriting and makes it much, much harder to trust their work on other issues. If you take a hard stand on an issue, then you get it wrong, you need to explain how and why you got it wrong. Or update your priors. This is how epistemological bubbles are formed! All of which is to say, it’s time for another installment of “What I Got Right, What I Got Wrong”. Last issue, I mostly focused on the “wrong” side of the equation, so today’s is a bit more balanced, but with one big mea culpa (though I still stand by my original concerns). Let’s dive right in! Subscribe CORRECTION: UFC Didn’t Release Subscriber Data (But Seems to Have Bragged About It Internally) In my analysis of the viewership of UFC Freedom 250, I wrote... “Paramount has also released datecdotes bragging about their subscriber numbers. Earlier this year, they claimed that the first UFC fight on Paramount+ brought in 1 million subscribers.” Well, that datecdote did not come from a PR rep, but from great reporting from James Faris at Business Insider. The actual quote was this: “Paramount’s flagship streaming service generated about a million new subscribers on the day of its first-ever UFC event, Paramount product chief Dane Glasgow told employees in a town hall on Tuesday morning, three staffers who attended the meeting told Business Insider.“ This wasn’t the biggest goof in the world; even Faris emphasized to me that this is more a “clarification” than a correction. Still, it sounds like, internally, the folks at Paramount were very happy about this result—and I’m guessing they were happy with this news getting out—even though the gains didn’t last through the quarter, dropping to 700K adds. RIGHT: MrBeast’s Struggles Continue... I’m very skeptical about MrBeast’s burgeoning media “empire” and, in particular, its $5 billion valuation, as I wrote earlier this year and last year. Sure enough, according to Business Insider, regarding its “booming” consumer products division_:_ “US sales volume grew 13% year-over-year in 2025, following a 33% leap the previous year, according to a presentation deck dated May 2026....A February 2025 investor deck viewed by Business Insider showed Feastables’ net revenue more than doubled in 2024 from 2023, to $215 million, and was forecast to grow 74% in 2025, to $375 million.” [Emphasis mine.] If you told investors that you projected 74% growth but delivered 13%,1 that’s not ideal. But it’s not just MrBeast. Logan Paul and KSI’s Prime had sales drop in half for their energy drinks. It’s one thing to build a successful entertainment company and an entirely different thing to succeed in the heavily-consolidated-but-also-very-competitive consumer packaged goods space! CPGs are dominated by a few firms with very wide moats compared to YouTube, which has few barriers to entry. These businesses require different skill sets and have completely different business environments. WRONG: Does the NBA Have an $8 Billion Bidder? Almost as soon as I published my article about the NBA’s finances, casting skepticism on NBA expansion, I saw this Front Office Sports headline: One group “claims to have already raised $8 billion” for the Vegas expansion team. I mean, wow. That’s just $2 billion less than what the Los Angeles Lakers were valued at when they were sold just last year. And they’re arguably the most popular team in the NBA. (Side note: the new owner is now under an investigation for fraud in how he went about financing the Lakers and the Dodgers purchases.) So much for the “dried up” language I used in that article. (This is why I usually stick to my “Entertainment Nuance Guy” tone in articles...) I went off old information—from April, when I read/heard about the NBA downplaying expansion efforts—instead of doing a quick double-check for new news. That said...if you read the article, the market for Seattle is “slow”, with just one reported bidder. So I wasn’t entirely off. This goof has annoyed me since I first published it, mainly because it undercut that article’s real point, which I stand by: NBA franchises are really overvalued right now. Now, I get why NBA teams are overvalued. When it comes to owning sports teams, it’s basically never wrong to assume that some rich person somewhere will care more about owning a team (or just being part of a group since they’re so expensive) than the actual financials. There are only so many teams to own, and opportunities to buy in preferred markets don’t come along very often. This explains why the teams sell for such high multiples (usually above a 10 to 12.5 revenue multiple, which is very high). You only need one person to overpay! Beyond the ultra-wealthy luxury good explanation, I worry NBA teams are becoming speculative assets. More and more private equity investors are buying into NBA teams. But the value, in owning a team, comes from selling it later, not any meaningful relationship to revenue or profit growth. In other words, the newer NBA owners are increasingly expecting someone later to buy their inflated asset. That’s not sound economics; that’s the “greater fool” theory at work.2 At some point, actually making money has to matter. Especially since revenue growth is now below the growth of the stock market. (And this matters because the NBA doesn’t have easy levers to pull to drastically lower their costs—half of their revenue has to go to players and then you actually have to run a team, including coaching, training, travel, media expenses, and more—or raise revenues aside from one-off expansions in America and overseas.) I just don’t see how investors make their money back buying NBA teams, except for selling at a higher price later on down the line. But if revenue/profit growth continues to slow, at some point, someone will be left holding the bag. RIGHT: Baseball and Basketball are about equally popular. Related to the above, I wanted to cite two quick pieces of evidence for one of my other theories: that the NBA and MLB are about as popular as each other, but the NBA gets much, much better media coverage. One YouGov survey has that fans prefer basketball to baseball by 52% to 48%, which I’m guessing is within the margin of error for that poll. That’s virtually even, meaning they’re about the same popularity. Over on NBC, a recent Red Sox-Yankees game averaged 4 million viewers, higher than Sunday Night Basketball’s average of 3.4 million on the same network. A Yankees-Dodgers game averaged 3.9 million two weeks ago. Not every game averages this much, but it shows you that baseball isn’t far off from basketball, depending on the matchup. Altogether, the NBA is just slightly more popular than baseball, but NBC is paying MLB a fraction of what they pay the NBA, a point I’ve made before. RIGHT: Angel, MUBI and Neon Updates... I’ve long been skeptical about many of Hollywood’s buzziest startups/smaller indie studios. It’s not that they don’t make great movies—films like Anora and Everything Everywhere All at Once are amazing—or that they’re not (rightfully) pushing the majors to make better films, but...they get a ton of hype, and that hype often doesn’t live up to the reality or difficulty in scaling up. Starting with MUBI, well, The Wall Street Journal wrote a feature on MUBI’s struggles last April, best summarized by the subheader “After Sequoia valued Mubi at $1 billion, a left-wing revolt sent the indie film company into a tailspin”. MUBI lost $7.3 million on $200 million in revenue in Q4 2025, but reportedly hit a record 1.7 million subscribers at the end of Q1. As for Neon, Department M purchased a “significant stake” in the company earlier this year. How much is that “stake” worth? According to Deadline, “No financial figures for the Neon-Department M deal were disclosed.” So...that’s not great! If it was a big valuation, we’d hear about. Also, I found this curious: “Both Neon and Department M already have separate partnerships with Qatar. The Qatar Film Committee has a slate deal in place with the former, and a biopic production pact with the latter.” Color me skeptical about much Middle Eastern investment dollars. See: LIV Golf. Finally, as for Angel (formerly Angel Studios), their stock very, very slightly popped last month after Young Washington ($20 million budget) which made $45 million in the US, but their stock is still way down from its opening. Smaller Updates RIGHT: The WGA should focus on antitrust concerns! I’ve been on this for years. Post-WGA/AMTPT deal in 2023, I wrote an article for the Ankler calling on the WGA to focus and organize against industry consolidation. Sure enough, the WGA filed a lawsuit against the Paramount-WBD merger, and people are organizing around this issue now. I wish this energy had coalesced earlier (specifically to lobby Washington much earlier), but better late than never! WRONG: Actually, the chip shortage might be due to market manipulation. In my last “Long Reads for the Long Summer” article, I shared an article about how LLMs are causing memory chip prices to spike, which will make all electronics more expensive. Well, turns out, three RAM manufacturers control 90% of the market, and now a private lawsuit accuses them of price-fixing. So yeah. WRONG/UPDATE: The Odyssey will hold! Two weeks ago, I wrote, “As of this moment, we haven’t had a super-blockbuster, though The Odyssey, Spider-Man: Brand New Day and Avengers: Doomsday could all cross the $500 million mark. (At this point, The Odyssey would need a very strong hold to get there.)” Well, it’s safe to say it’s going to have that hold! It only dropped 30% in weekend two and IMAX screenings are sold out all month. Spider-Man: Brand New Day is also off to a great start. RIGHT: People are rushing to get shows out yearly. I’ve long been bullish on yearly, weekly-released shows, and Leslie Goldberg at The Ankler wrote about how many people in town are now listening. WRONG: Mark Carney reverses Canada’s stance on homegrown production. After writing about Canada installing domestic production quotas, Canada has backed off. WRONG: I don’t trust Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s online “views”. When I originally wrote about the latest Spider-Man film’s record-breaking trailer, I thought this was just YouTube views, but after watching this Corridor Crew video and doing more research, well, it’s all social views of the trailer globally. Really? That stat includes TikTok, Reels and YouTube Shorts views. Basically, I don’t trust it anymore. (This film will probably set record, but I trust the pre-sales data more.) RIGHT: Celebrity Production companies are still struggling. I’ve written about this for years, but the company that I didn’t track was Kevin Hart’s HartBeat, which was valued at $650 million but is struggling now and might just end soon, especially after Kevin Hart pulled his endorsement deals. And Bad Robot is moving to NYC. CORRECTION: SpongeBob is a “second run” title. In my 2025 recap article, I had _SpongeBob SquarePants_labelled as a “library” title, when it is still a “second run” show, with new episodes still coming out on Nickelodeon. CORRECTION: In my last “What I Got Right, What I Got Wrong” update, I offered a correction from Doug Creutz and misspelled TD Cowen. Thanks, Grammarly! 1 Though he could have increased prices to make up for the gap, he couldn’t have increased them that much. 2 There’s a theory, which I think that Daryl Morey created and Bill Simmons popularized, that, to be successful building your team, you only need a handful of bad GMs in the league to take advantage of. To be clear, Daryl Morey’s theory was also for signing bad contracts, that you could always get out of bad contracts. Basically, there’s always someone who will make a bad trade. It’s not the same exact thing, but similar enough to the Greater Fool Theory that I really like it.
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