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How to Watch the 2026 VMAs Red Carpet, Plus 2025 Winners and 2026 Predictions
Madonna opens the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards in Los Angeles. Here is how to watch the red carpet and ceremony, who won in 2025, and which nominees could win this year.
Jaguars’ Latest Prediction Would Be Dream Scenario for Trevor Lawrence
Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars were able to take care of business in Week 3 against the New England Patriots. When the final whistle was blown, they ended up winning by a dominant final score of 35-6. With the win, the Jaguars improved to 2-1 on the young season. They are beginning to look […] The post Jaguars’ Latest Prediction Would Be Dream Scenario for Trevor Lawrence appeared first on Gridiron Heroics.
Chicago Bears vs. Philadelphia Eagles Game Picks and Predictions
The WCG crew, including @GOOCH1701, @SamHouseholder, @wiltfongjr, and more, with their picks for the Bears vs. Eagles game!
Raiders vs Saints live updates: Score, highlights, predictions, analysis
The Raiders are in New Orleans in a pivotal Week 3 matchup. Follow live score updates, highlights, injury news, key plays, and instant analysis.
SNL skit mocks Dario Amodei's AI doomsday predictions
In a sketch, "Saturday Night Live" portrayed Dario Amodei as a bumbling megalomaniac struggling to explain why his own technology won't end the world.
Cardinals vs 49ers Prediction, Pick, Odds for NFL Week 3
If you want more Action Network content, be sure to add us as a preferred source on Google. The Arizona Cardinals (1-1) and San Francisco 49ers (2-0) battle in Week
NFL Week 3 expert picks, score predictions: Jets at Lions
New York Jets vs. Detroit Lions NFL Week 3 expert picks from the Pride of Detroit staff.
PlayStation Plus Free Games October 2026: Reveal Date, Rumors, Predictions And More
he PS Plus October 2026 free games are coming soon. Here’s when Sony will reveal the Essential lineup, when the games release, plus leaks, rumors and predictions.
Bold predictions for Sunday Night Football NFL Week 3
Early into the NFL season, it’s vital to stay in contention for the division lead. That is the case for Sunday night’s game between the Los Angeles Rams and Denver Broncos. Each team enters the game at 1-1, and moving…
NFL Predictions, Week 3 Picks: Expert Best Bets for Sunday
If you want more Action Network content, be sure to add us as a preferred source on Google. Our football staff is focused on eight of Sunday’s biggest
NFL Week 3 expert picks, predictions: Moneylines, against the spread
Our staff’s picks and predictions for all NFL Week 3 games of the 2026 season.
Democrats for office, Republicans for policy?
My prediction for this election: Voters will vote against … themselves. Voters will elect Democrats to run virtually everything — and then approve ballot measures telling those Democrats to stop doing virtually everything. Democrats for office. Limited government for policy. Colorado has reinvented ticket splitting without the inconvenience of electing Republicans. We used to split […]
Around the Empire: Wild Card Series previews and predictions
All your Wild Card Series questions answered; Wells’ well-timed turnaround; JV calls it a career.
8 more Bills vs. Chargers predictions, scores, odds for Week 3 game
Just one NFL expert thinks the Los Angeles Chargers can escape Sunday with a win against the Buffalo Bills.
Miami Dolphins Fans: Dolphins Vs KC Chiefs Predictions
Miami Dolphins fans share their predictions for tomorrows game versus the Kansas City Chiefs.
Week 4 Predictions: Huskers at Spartans
Mike: The exhibition season is OVAH. Jarek: It’s the fourth week of the season and we’ve played teams who’s colors are green or had “green” in their name. Jill: Just casually dropping in (finally) in Week 4. It’s time for some B1G football!! Andy: So Northwestern – are they for real? UCLA (-1.5) at Maryland […]
Steelers vs. Bengals: Week 3 predictions for Pittsburgh
Which Steelers could surprise, disappoint in Week 3?
Canal Street Chronicles: Week 3 Saints vs. Raiders Bold Predictions
Here are some bold predictions from the CSC staff for Week 3 of the Saints 2026 regular season
Yankees Handed Rotation Prediction for Red Sox Wild Card Series
For the second straight year, the New York Yankees will face the Boston Red Sox in the Wild Card Series. The question will be who the Yankees will go with to open the series, and WFAN’s Chris McMonigle already sees how New York will line up its rotation for this series. Rather than having Cam […] The post Yankees Handed Rotation Prediction for Red Sox Wild Card Series appeared first on HEAVY.
How I would change my preseason predictions
Memphis has an off week this weekend before it starts conference play on October 3rd against Charlotte. With the Tigers off, it’s a good time to revisit my preseason predictions.
Georgia Secretary of State warns election officials off political betting
Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger is warning election officials and poll workers across the state not to place bets on political races as prediction market apps surge in popularity.
Appeals court rules that states can regulate Kalshi’s sports prediction markets, dealing another legal blow to platforms
The decision is the second in less than a month by an appeals court that states have a role in regulating sports-related event contracts.
Five Bold Predictions For Ohio State vs. Illinois
We haven't hit on many over our bold predictions, but Ohio State vs. Illinois gives us another opportunity! Who steps up this week?
35% of bettors are leaving sportsbooks for prediction markets, echoing the regulatory loophole DraftKings built its business on
The American Gaming Association says states have already lost $500 million in tax revenue to prediction markets.
Preview & Prediction: Boston College Football vs Virginia Tech
It was a dark and stormy… afternoon at Alumni Stadium
Bill Gates warns AI could lead to 'a billion deaths'
The cofounder of Microsoft made grave predictions about AI and voiced support for government regulation of the sector.
ROUNDTABLE: Northwestern at No. 5 Indiana predictions
INU’s pulse of NUFB’s biggest test of the young season.
“Big Brother ”host Julie Chen Moonves weighs in on Devens, Drew, and Taylor’s finale chances (exclusive)
The Chenbot also gives her America’s Favorite Houseguest prediction.
Op-ed | Prediction markets can hedge against small business risks
Prediction markets apply a similar model to a new category of risk.
DraftKings Dips as Adjusted Data Narrows Kalshi's 76% Prediction-Market Lead; Robinhood and Flutter Entertainment Slip
Kalshi's grip on NFL prediction-market volume looks overwhelming until Needham adjusts for how professional traders inflate exchange counts, and that one tweak changes the stakes for DraftKings stock in ways the headline number hides.
Notre Dame vs Purdue Game Predictions
The undefeated Fighting Irish seek their eleventh consecutive rivalry victory as an explosive offense prepares to dismantle a struggling Boilermaker defense in this high-stakes Big Ten showdown.
Three Bold Predictions for Jets vs. Lions at Ford Field
Expect a Ford Field fireworks display as Detroit’s high-octane offense prepares to dismantle New York’s secondary, headlined by Aidan Hutchinson’s relentless pursuit of a career-high sack record.
Bears vs. Eagles predictions: Spread, Total, and 3 Bold Picks!
Big game this week on Monday Night Football between the Bears and Eagles, so @wiltfongjr makes his picks here.
Los Angeles Lakers season preview: Lineup, roster and prediction
After a drama-filled offseason sparked by a surprise sale and another Buss family power struggle, a new-look Lakers roster looks to find their place in the Western Conference.
Cleveland Cavaliers season preview: Lineup, roster and prediction
The Cleveland Cavaliers re-signed Donovan Mitchell and James Harden, while adding Peyton Watson. Is it enough to make them NBA title contenders?
Editor Score Predictions: Nebraska vs. Michigan State
Husker football is entering the start of their season 3-0, with their next game coming up this Saturday against Michigan State. The Daily Nebraskan sports senior staff share their thoughts and predictions for the game.
Can Genius Sports (GENI) Justify A Higher Valuation Following Prediction.com Launch?
Genius Sports (GENI) has moved further into the consumer arena with the launch of Prediction.com, a site that aggregates prediction markets and tracks how contract probabilities shift as events unfold. The launch of Prediction.com comes at a challenging time for Genius Sports’ shareholders, with the 30-day share price return down 27.04% and the year-to-date share price return down 46.20%, while the 1-year total shareholder return has declined 54.51%. However, the 3-year total shareholder...
NFL Week 3 picks, predictions: Falcons vs. Packers on TNF
Our expert picks for Week 3’s Thursday Night Football game between the Green Bay Packers and Atlanta Falcons.
New York sues prediction market Polymarket
The lawsuit is the latest legal challenge to rein in betting apps.
Falcons Roundtable: Can Michael Penix Save Atlanta's Offense Against Packers?
The Atlanta Falcons face the Green Bay Packers on Thursday Night Football as Michael Penix Jr. returns from his ACL injury. Our Falcons Roundtable breaks down Atlanta's 0-2 start, Penix's expectations, Green Bay's weaknesses, bold predictions and Week 3 score picks.
Bold predictions for Thursday Night Football in NFL Week 3
These are the bold predictions for the Packers vs Falcons on Thursday Night Football.
Golden State Warriors season preview: Lineup, roster and prediction
The Golden State Warriors enter the 2026-27 season as an afterthought despite being one sleeper teams in the league.
Philadelphia 76ers season preview: Lineup, roster and prediction
No team made a bigger splash in the NBA offseason than the Philadelphia 76ers, who added Jaylen Brown and LeBron James. Now, the real work begins.
Detroit Pistons season preview: Lineup, roster and prediction
The Detroit Pistons had the East's best record last season, but expectations are tempered heading into the 2026-27 NBA campaign.
Memphis Grizzlies season preview: Lineup, roster and prediction
The Memphis Grizzlies started a new era this offseason trading Ja Morant and drafting Cameron Boozer. Can their rebuild go quicker than expected?
100 Tennessee football simulations vs. Texas predict a Neyland nailbiter
We're back with EA Sports College Football 27's prediction for Tennessee vs. Texas at Neyland Stadium in Knoxville on Saturday, Sept. 26.
100 Tennessee football simulations vs. Texas predict a Neyland nailbiter
We're back with EA Sports College Football 27's prediction for Tennessee vs. Texas at Neyland Stadium in Knoxville on Saturday, Sept. 26.
‘The first prediction-market election’: How Kalshi and Polymarket scrambled the midterms
Wagering is affecting nearly every aspect of the midterms — from campaigns to election officials, voters, donors and traders — according to interviews with 20 people involved in elections and prediction sites.
Fintech After the Midterms: 3 Thoughts on How Politics Might Impact Policy
If the polls—and the prediction markets—are any indication, then the Democratic Party stands a better than even chance of taking control of the US House of Representatives after the mid-term elections in November.
Packers Wire staff predictions: Week 3 vs. Falcons
Here’s how the staff at Packers Wire believes the Week 3 showdown with the Falcons will go down.
High school football Week 6 predictions of the Milwaukee area
Journal Sentinel sports reporters Zac Bellman and Michael Whitlow make their predictions for the Week 6 games to watch in the Milwaukee area.
Prediction markets’ trading volume doubled between May and July, largely driven by sports
Prediction market trading on Kalshi and Polymarket doubled from May to July, mostly due to a large uptick in sports trading.
Seedy K’s Peerless Pigskin Prognostications: Week IV
There were any number of comeuppances over last weekend. For Texas A&M, Lane Kiffin, NC State Wolfpack, Coach Prime, UVa and . . . . . . oh yeah, Seedy K and his predictioneering prowess. A week after coming oh so close to a perfecto, and still finishing 6-1, I laid an egg as big […]
Google DeepMind's latest AI tool promises a new era for genetics research, but experts warn to take its predictions with caution
AlphaGenome Atlas could make it easier for geneticists to access powerful AI, but its predictions aren't always accurate.
The business of betting on natural disasters. ‘It’s a kind of disaster capitalism’
Prediction markets allow users to bet on when storms will hit, raising ethical concerns.
New Orleans Pelicans season preview: Lineup, roster and prediction
The New Orleans Pelicans enter the 2026-27 NBA season as perhaps the league's most confounding team after largely standing pat despite a poor record.
Rutgers vs Howard Prediction: Desperation Time For the Scarlet Knights
It's been an awful start for Rutgers, and now a Friday night game against Howard has to be when things turn around. Here's the CFN preview and prediction.
Navy vs UAB Prediction: Do-or-Die Friday Night Showdown
It's a huge moment for a UAB program looking to make noise in the American, but Navy needs this even more. Here's the CFN preview and prediction.
Syracuse Men's Basketball Gets Great Prediction on Recruiting Trail
Gerry McNamara is working to rebuild the Orange both now, and in the future.
Epic's mortality model, and Omada's future products
In this edition of STAT Health Tech: What Epic's mortality prediction algorithm tells us about AI in geriatrics, Omada's expansion plans, and more.
Toronto Maple Leafs William Nylander Point Projections for 2026-27
We will finish up with one final Toronto Maple Leafs player point total prediction for the upcoming 2026-27 season. For Maple Leaf players, we have already completed Matthew Knies, Gavin McKenna, Auston Matthews, and today we bring you the William Nylander point projections. So, let's get into it. '26-27 Toronto Maple Leafs William Nylander Point …
Indiana Pacers season preview: Lineup, roster and prediction
The Indiana Pacers are poised to be NBA Finals contenders after a one-year hiatus following the Achilles injury suffered by star Tyrese Haliburton.
My predictions for Meta Connect 2026
Join me in guessing what will be unveiled at Meta Connect 2026, including exciting news about a new lightweight mixed-reality headset.
Bills QB Josh Allen Faces Big Prediction Against Struggling Chargers
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen is expected to have another strong performance against the Los Angeles Chargers. The post Bills QB Josh Allen Faces Big Prediction Against Struggling Chargers appeared first on HEAVY.
Updated game-by-game Oklahoma Sooners predictions from ESPN
How does the ESPN Matchup Predictor see the rest of the Oklahoma Sooners schedule playing out after Week 3?
Bold predictions for Monday Night Football in NFL Week 2
Bold predictions for Giants vs. Rams on MNF in NFL Week 2.
Houston Rockets season preview: Lineup, roster and prediction
The Houston Rockets can be contenders again with Fred VanVleet back from injury to help make year two of the Kevin Durant era a smoother ride.
Toronto Raptors season preview: Lineup, roster and prediction
After waiting more than a month for the Kawhi Leonard trade to be finalized, the Toronto Raptors are now an intriguing team in the Eastern Conference.
Final score predictions for Bengals vs. Texans in Week 2
Bengals vs. Texans final preview for Week 2.
Three Last-Minute Packers vs. Jets Predictions
The Green Bay Packers aim to stifle Garrett Wilson and ignite a struggling ground game against the New York Jets.
3 bold predictions for Broncos’ game vs. Jaguars
Here are our bold predictions for the Broncos' game against the Jaguars on Sunday.
Seahawks vs Cardinals live updates: Score, highlights, predictions, analysis
Seahawks play the Cardinals in a pivotal NFC West Showdown. Follow live score updates, highlights, injury news, key plays and instant analysis.
NFL Week 2 expert picks, predictions: Moneylines, against the spread
Our staff’s picks and predictions for all NFL Week 2 games of the 2026 season.
NFL Sunday Night Football best bets Week 2
Sunday Night Football brings the Indianapolis Colts to Arrowhead to face the Kansas City Chiefs, and there are several player props worth targeting. Here are four bets for the Week 2 NFL matchup. MORE: Bold predictions for Week 2 of…
A Cloudy Climate Mystery Over Antarctica Has Scientists Rethinking Their Models
Researchers compare observations with leading climate models to identify errors and help improve future climate predictions. Some simulations put too many low clouds over the Southern Ocean, yet still underestimate how much heat reaches the surface below. Observations from an Antarctic research voyage suggest that fixing the cloud count alone will not solve the problem.
Panthers vs Falcons: Round table predictions, odds, and Atlanta Bryce
This week should be different.
Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings Game Picks and Predictions
The WCG staff, including @GOOCH1701, @SamHouseholder, @iamcogs, and @wiltfongjr, makes their picks for the Bears vs. Vikings game!
Prediction For Buccaneers Week 2 Game Against Cleveland Browns
Tampa Bay is looking to bounce back in Week 2 against a Cleveland team that was dominated a week ago.
Steelers vs Patriots prediction: T.J. Watt, defense will flummox Drake Maye again
The Steelers forced five turnovers in beating the reigning AFC champions at Gillette Stadium almost exactly a year ago.
5 bold predictions for Bears vs. Vikings
Some big receiving performances for both teams and a signature rookie moment highlight our bold predictions for Bears vs. Vikings.
Duke vs. Stanford live updates: Score, highlights, predictions, analysis
Duke plays Stanford in a pivotal ACC showdown. Follow live score updates, highlights, injury news, key plays, and instant analysis.
Fulham vs Manchester United predictions: Premier League tips and odds
Both Fulham and Manchester United are already under pressure this season ahead of their meeting at Craven Cottage on Sunday (kick-off, 4.30pm), in the final Premier League fixture before the international break.
Ravens - Saints: How to Watch, Predictions, and More
Everything to know about the Baltimore Ravens' home opener against the New Orleans Saints.
49ers vs. Dolphins prediction: A vintage Christian McCaffrey performance
Are the Niners poised for another blowout?
Week 3 Game Predictions: Northwestern Wildcats vs. Colorado Buffaloes
The predictions are in for Northwestern vs. Colorado as the Wildcats return from their bye week for a highly anticipated Week 3 matchup.
The Big Holes in Wearable Heart Rate Variability And Readiness Scores
On September 9th, Apple announced it was revamping its Apple Watch Health Sensing System, rolling out a Readiness score (0 to 10), and increasing the frequency of heart rate variability (HRV) outputs 24-fold. This can be viewed as upping its competition with various other consumer wearable sensors. These “readiness scores” as a composite of multiple metrics, with heart rate variability (HRV) being front and center for most. The majority of Americans are now using wearable sensors, which equates to well over 100 million adults. HRV and Readiness scores are increasingly being marketed as a measurement of autonomic nervous system health, a digital marker for future disease, a clock for biological age, and a holistic metric to promote healthspan and even longevity. (Apple also introduced a new longevity tab and “Health Age”.) None of this has been proven. In this edition of Ground Truths I am going to review what we know about heart rate variability and readiness scores. Heart Rate Variability HRV is the variation in normal heart cycle timing. The variability of the heart rate, the barely perceptible millisecond changes in time between consecutive heart beats (see R-R intervals in the Figure below, left panel), is due to interplay between the sympathetic and parasympathetic (vagal nerve) inputs. Distinct from heart rate, individuals with the same heart rate can have very different HRVs. It is a rough reflection of the autonomic nervous system (ANS) activity, inadequate to say whether a person’s ANS function is abnormal. For more than three decades, heart rate variability (HRV) has been measured and several studies have found an association of low HRV and clinical outcomes, particularly a link with higher all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. There have also been less well established links of low HRV to risk of early cognitive impairment, dementia, mental illness, Type 2 diabetes and substance abuse. An important reminder is that HRV is a surrogate marker without any established cause-and-effect relationship. If you increase your HRV, that doesn’t mean it will improve health outcomes. In fact, there is no hard evidence for that. All that work linking to health outcomes was done with electrocardiogram (ECG) derived HRV. Now, in the era of consumer wearables, this is getting assessed differently, by optical pulse (yes, the lights you see) plethysmography (PPG) or what is called pulse rate variability (PRV). They are not the same, as shown below (right panel) and only concordant when the delay between the ECG and pulse is kept constant, which basically means at rest. I should mention there’s also what I will call MPV, a mattress mechanical movement sensor, a derived heart rate variability, that companies like Eight Sleep use, even further away from directly measuring HRV. HRV has not one uniform measurement but many different types of quantification, such as RMSSD, the magnitude of difference between successive R-R intervals of normal sinus beats (N-N) or SDNN, the standard deviation of NN intervals, both in milliseconds. SDNN is one of the so-called frequency domain HRVs (others are LF, HF, LF/HF). Different wearable sensors use different metics; Apple has relied on SDNN and nearly all of the others use RMSSD, which is generally considered the more accurate metric. There’s also the different length of time measured, such as for a matter of minutes, all day, or an overnight’s sleep. Short measurements are especially problematic since they don’t capture enough of respiratory modulation and other factors that influence HRV. Share Ground Truths How well does HRV correlate with PRV? There are very limited studies, especially independently done. One that is commonly cited was conducted by Air Force researchers in only 13 healthy adults assessing Oura ring 3 and 4, Whoop 4.0, and Garmin Fenix 6 and showed a correlation coefficient of 0.88 to 0.97 and a mean absolute percentage error from 6 to 10%. The correlation is not a perfect 1.0, but there’s at least a fairly high level of correlation. HRV is supposed to increase during the night due to takeover of the parasympathetic nervous system, and higher during deep sleep. A recent example of my 1 week, all day “HRV,” and one during sleep is shown below. As you can see, the N of 1 data are inconsistent for the same days from different sensors (Oura, AppleWatch, Fitbit Air, and Eight Sleep) by patterns, absolute numbers, and comparison with prior days and weeks. The largest study in over 8 million Fitbit users (the old version, not Google Fitbit Air, introduced in May 2026) gives you a sense of the effect of age, sex, and the 2 different main HRV (here PRV) metrics, with RMSSD on the left and SDRR (=SDNN) on the right below. That study, from data collected in 2018, is a major outlier, since all the more recent ones are tiny with respect to sample size. Many of the companies have not had independent evaluation of their HRV, such as Eight Sleep, but have published a low standard error on their website. There are some other published studies on the correlation between HRV and PRV, but they are all small and only in healthy adults. A scoping review emphasized the lack of study in underrepresented individuals, including the aged, people of color (which affects the PPG signal), and individuals who are underweight or obese. Add the typical adult age 60 plus with one or more chronic diseases. For example, one study in over 900 adults found poor correlation of HRV and PRV, non-uniformly underestimated across many chronic diseases (cardiovascular, endocrine, neurological, respiratory, and others), concluding PRV is “an invalid surrogate for HRV.” A recent systematic review of 43 studies comparing HRV and PRV found reasonable pooled absolute standardized error (HRV as gold standard) but only 10 of the studies provided quantitative synthesis in ideal conditions. Their main conclusion was similarly cautious: “PPG-derived HRV [PRV] should not be regarded as universally interchangeable with ECG-derived HRV across all devices, populations, and recording contexts.” Factors Affecting HRV and PRV That gets me to the long list of factors that affect HRV (and PRV) besides the device, the type of measurement (RMSSD, SDNN or others), the person’s signal, the sensor site, the duration of data capture, if weighting by sleep stage is used, how artifact is processed and corrected. And this list is not complete!: Oura puts out data from their community of users (who input data) on what affects their overnight HRV. The factors currently provided are: no alcohol (increase 8%), melatonin (increase 2%, float tank (increase 2%), wine (decrease 4%), and party (decrease 14%) in overnight HRV. Must be some big parties! Subscribe What is a PRV measurement good for? It has been falsely characterized as an index of “autonomic balance” and a specific indicator of stress. A 2018 review of the studies available for HRV and its relationship to stress, not using any of the current wearables, found that stress can lower HRV. But so can many other factors. The non-specificity of the signal, indexed to the table above, is striking. Evidence from a UK Biobank study of over 46,000 participants with actual HRV looked at genetically predicted HRV, a genetic risk score, that failed to show the expected HRV-mortality link, indicating that _HRV is likely not causa_l, but rather a reflection of person’s physiologic state. A review of consumer wearable HRV data from 5 longitudinal studies showed that nighttime PRV was not associated with perceived stress, and surprisingly higher HRV, in the largest cohort (N=717 participants), was correlated with higher stress. An Oura ring cohort of 525 first-year college students found a link between overnight PRV and perceived stress, but that was also seen with resting heart rate, sleep, and respiratory rate. Several very small studies have examined the relationship of HRV and athletic injuries or guiding training with mixed, and predominantly negative results. HRV biofeedback training with paced breathing had no significant effect on reducing stress or raising HRV, as demonstrated with sham controlled trials. When HRV for multiple days showed a decline in conjunction with body temperature, the Oura ring published data for prediction of Covid. The WHOOP company sponsored an observational study, published in 2026, of 30,000 users for 72 weeks, without a control group, that reported reduced alcohol intake (5.8 % points) by self-report. That doesn’t tell us much, and particularly about the merits of HRV for behavioral change. If you use the same device and conditions as longitudinal trends for multiple (at least 2-3) weeks that may be the one way to get something useful from the measurements. Data for overnight sleep with minimal motion and using RMSSD is the best proxy for real HRV. The reason to look at trends rather than any given night is that it more likely represents something, even though you won’t know with certainty what the “it” is. Keep in mind there are no data, no peer-reviewed evidence, to show that HRV fluctuation in-person has any correlation with health outcomes. Share Readiness Scores These are proprietary scores that integrate different metrics for each of the wearables: no algorithms have been disclosed. They are unvalidated against health outcomes. In a review of 14 composite health scores of readiness and recovery, HRV contributed 86% to the scores, followed by reading heart rate (79%), physical activity and sleep duration (both at 71%). That review noted the substantial variability in measurement protools and lack of standardization. Sleep staging is notoriously inconsistent and inaccurate by these sensors, which adds further to the HRV uncertainties for what the scores, which use sleep stage data, mean. Only resting heart rate has been shown consistently across devices to be extremely accurate. I’ve made a Table to summarize what we know about which metrics are included, the scores, any peer-reviewed studies that compared the readiness score with health outcomes, and the corresponding (if any, NA-not available) citation. You will note that some companies do not use the term “readiness," such as WHOOP for recovery, and Garmin, which has 2 different scores, one of which is Body Battery. Eight Sleep uses the term “Fitness Score.” They all include HRV; Apple includes a new metric they call “Recovery HRV” which among other components uses 7-days of sleep, but it is unclear what this means or how it is differentiated from other scores (there are clearly no data for outcomes). We have no knowledge of how the different components are weighted or whether any of these scores are better than resting heart rate, HRV alone, physical activity, or any other single metric. Since none of these are standardized, they are not interchangeable, so if you get a 90 for Oura that has no relationship to a 90 on a Google Fitbit Air. Notably, the company can update its algorithm for readiness score at any point without notification to device users. Without any useful evidence of actionability for these scores or established relationship with health outcomes, it is hard to make a case for their value. At the Apple recent announcement they showed their Readiness score (0-10) on the watch (Figure below) but there are no published data on this score, not even on their website. It’s available only on their new Watch Series 12 or Ultra 4 [of course, ;-)]. That exemplifies the problems with these scores, lack of data and evidence for being meaningful to promote health. Perhaps the best study (which isn’t saying much) is the WHOOP Recovery for golfer performance, because it did correlate with an objective outcome, even though there was no control group and the authors were all from the company. Among the 389 pro golfers, an absolute 10-per cent point increase in Recovery score was associated with about 0.5 fewer strokes per round. But that’s hardly a health outcome! WHOOP is also conducting a study in over 2,700 runners to see if their recovery score will be linked to less injuries and improved performance, but that is not yet published and has no control group or randomization. Putting This in Context For two decades I’ve been enthusiastic about the potential for digital health and particularly wearable biosensors. Over the years, we’ve seen some great progress for their ability to promote physical activity and accurately detect atrial fibrillation (the first FDA cleared deep learning AI for consumers). That work was the subject of rigorous research. But there are holes in the data and evidence for other metrics. One notable one is the “VO2 max” story that I wrote about earlier this year. At that time many subscribers asked me to cover heart rate variability, which I finally got to here. When I dived into the research and publication for HRV and readiness scores, I expected to find at least some that were of high quality and demonstrated their utility by linkage to health outcomes. To my surprise, I found none. The wearable sensor measurements for HRV (PRV) are, for the most part, accurate, but that validation work has only been done in small studies of healthy adults and does not take into account the long list of factors, from the device, software side, and the user side, that affect HRV measurements. Moreover, this metric chiefly relies on optical sensing and, as we have learned for heart rate PPG sensing, may be less accurate in people of color. Keep in mind that all of the health outcome association evidence comes from ECG-derived HRV; none are from wearable sensor data. I will repeat the key point: there's no peer-reviewed evidence to show that in-person HRV fluctuation—or efforts to raise your HRV— has any correlation with health outcomes. For those of you who look at your HRV on awakening, or even 2+ week trends of it being low, I hope this context helps to relieve any anxiety. Yes, low HRV (not PRV) has been shown to increase risk of some diseases as summarized above. But efforts to raise your HRV—a surrogate metric— has not been established for improving any health outcomes. HRV does not have any evidence of causality (the genetic evidence actually goes against this possibility). In this summary, I have not included data for other wearable sensors such as Polar, Samsung, Withings, Suunto, Amazfit, Coros, Ultrahuman, or additional mattress sensors. These are beyond my first-hand experience, and as far as I know from my in-depth review none have any peer-reviewed published data that differ from the 6 sensors I’ve reviewed here. From the points I’ve gone over above, we’re not ready for readiness scores. Besides being proprietary, they are predominantly based on metrics that have their own issues. It’s compounding the problem, like building a house without a solid foundation that has never undergone a rigorous inspection, and then selling it. Like I mentioned for PRV, you can look at trends over weeks rather than any single day, to get a handle, but even that may not be helpful. There’s simply no evidence that these scores meaningfully relate to health outcomes. I’d emphasize they might, but that requires doing prospective or randomized studies to prove it. None exist. There’s great promise for HRV/PRV utility_. For example**,**_ Prof Maiken Nedergaard, who discovered the brain glymphatics that are essential in eliminating metabolic waste products from the brain during sleep, has posited that HRV could be a non-invasive marker for neuromodulator oscillations, brain-body regulatory circuits, and brain clearance. That would be extremely useful, but like everything else on HRV and readiness scores it requires solid research and validation. The lay media isn’t helping much to get the story straight. Earlier this year The Economist published a piece entitled “The most useful indicator of your overall health” which ordained HRV as an “accumulated stress score.” That’s akin to the false assertion about VO2max: “V02 max is the singular most powerful marker for longevity.” As I’ve summarized here, that is not established. The fact is that so many things can lower HRV, including physical exercise (especially an intense workout), reduced sleep quality, stress, the list above, no less the device, signal, and software. Whatever fluctuations observed have not been correlated with any health outcome. Sadly, “datamaxxers” are widely using HRV and readiness scores that have never been validated to mean anything. We already know that for some people using the sensors for sleep metrics, it can induce “orthosomnia,” an obsession to get high sleep quality, with associated high levels of anxiety. In an experiment done by a company to promote sleep quality for its employees, “For those employees who did use the trackers, many reported feeling perfectly rested until their tracker told them they had had a terrible night. Others were told that they had slept like a baby when they had actually been lying awake worrying about the quality of their sleep. “ The same problem can result from preoccupation with HRV or readiness scores, with anxiety that would lead to further reduction in both. It you are using a wearable like >100 million American adults, it’s OK to look at these data, but contextualized with the major caveats reviewed here. If you are one to require evidence that HRV or readiness scores are linked to health outcomes, you may not even want to look. The companies make it hard to turn them off! Let me end with the companies that make and sell wearables. Apple’s doubling down on HRV (24-fold more reporting and heart rate very 5 seconds) and introduction of a Readiness score tells us that consumers have bought into these metrics and they are joining the club. However, all of this is occurring with a backdrop of tens millions of users, claims about the data that are not backed up by adequate evidence, marketing way out in front of whatever limited data exists, and not being transparent about their readiness score algorithms. The companies can well afford to do the research that is needed to connect these metrics with health outcomes show, once and for all, that increasing HRV or using readiness scores promotes our health. If they believed and invested in the products they are selling, we’d not be in this position of not knowing. That’s essentially where we are with HRV and readiness scores. Perhaps someday this will change and we’ll have good reason to embrace them. NB: I wrote this post. No AI. I have no conflicts of interest with any of its content. Loading... Ground Truths has 215,000 subscribers from every US state and 214 countries. 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Broncos vs. Jaguars score predictions for Week 2
Do you think the Broncos will bounce-back against the Jaguars in Week 2? Here’s our score predictions.