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Rueben Bain Dominates Bucs’ Joint Practice With Jets
Tampa's prized rookie terrorized the New York Jets, blowing past first-round picks and drawing penalties as the favorite for Defensive Rookie of the Year dominated joint practice.
Rueben Bain Dominates Bucs’ Joint Practice With Jets
Tampa's prized rookie terrorized the New York Jets, blowing past first-round picks and drawing penalties as the favorite for Defensive Rookie of the Year dominated joint practice.
Tucson police have big role in city's business community
Tucson Police Chief Monica Prieto, seen here taking questions during a meeting in April of Our America Foundation, leads an organization with an often overlooked role in the city's business
Pirate Problems: Bucs Facing old Friend Sean McVay
New coordinator Zac Robinson faces his mentor in a high-stakes showdown, leveraging intimate knowledge of Sean McVay’s system to neutralize Matthew Stafford’s explosive Rams offense.
UC San Diego Health and West Health Accelerate Future of Patient Care
The West Health Accelerator at UC San Diego Health will transform how patients navigate care to ensure every person gets the right care, at the right time.
UCSD researcher wins America’s oldest science prize
Mark Thiemen's decades of research on isotopes changed what scientists know about earth’s origins.
Thousands of Endangered Species Condoms Distributed to Health Clinics, Mutual Aid Groups After Federal Funding Cuts
TUCSON, Ariz.— The Center for Biological Diversity has distributed more than 20,000 free Endangered Species Condoms so far this year to health clinics, mutual aid groups and social service organizations in the wake of federal funding cuts, including recent cuts to the Teen Pregnancy Prevention Program.
NSF grant supports Marley Dewey’s work to restore coral reefs
UC Santa Barbara assistant professor of bioengineering Marley Dewey is bringing in a wider community as she studies how to repair coral, as part of a $750,000 CAREER award from the National Science Foundation.
Jose Felix’s impact on Jet Sports Training makes Southside fitness business limitless
A conversation with Bobby Rodriguez at the wedding of Jose Felix's cousin in 2017 led to a dinner meeting at the restaurant No Anchovies between the two Sunnyside High School graduates to discuss further the possibility of collaborating on a local fitness center. No Anchovies became the starting point of no giving up when it
Bucs lack a Hall of Fame 'lock' according to CBS Sports
CBS Sports doesn't consider any current Buc a Hall of Fame lock, but Tristan Wirfs was identified as Tampa Bay's best candidate.
Bucs sign S Xavier Williams
Alaska Sports Scoreboard: Aug. 8, 2026
Scores and results from competitions across the state.
SCIENCE-SHARKS/
A mako shark is temporarily caught by researchers June 19, 2024, off the coast of Long Island, N.Y.
Bucs' Winfield Jr. Given Ridiculous Ranking Among Safeties
Despite elite versatility and a decorated resume, Tampa Bay’s star safety plummeted in a new league-wide ranking, sparking an intense debate.
Jon Gruden "fired up" to broadcast Bucs preseason game
Jon Gruden, who won Super Bowl XXXVII as Tampa Bay's head coach, will be in the broadcast booth as the play-by-play announcer for the Bucs' second preseason game against the Chiefs on Aug. 22.
NFL Scout Rips Bucs' QB Mayfield
An anonymous evaluator slams the quarterback’s contract disappointment as a "crock," but fails miserably in his reasoning.
Bucs' Walker is Healthy and Turning Heads at Training Camp
After losing his rookie season to injury, the former fourth-round pick is dominating early practices, racking up daily sacks and proving he belongs in Tampa Bay's revamped defense.
UC San Diego Students Learn Spatial Data Science Through Real-World Applications
UC San Diego students are bridging GIS and machine learning to solve real-world challenges in public health and urban planning. In a new spatial analysis course, they analyze complex geospatial data to identify environmental risks and support smarter community decision-making.
Pirate Problems: Bucs' Mayfield set for Clash With Williams
Two former Oklahoma Heisman winners and top draft picks collide as Caleb Williams leads his surging Bears against Baker Mayfield’s resilient Buccaneers in a high-stakes quarterback showdown.
After lost rookie season, Bucs LB David Walker is turning heads again
Last year, Buccaneers rookie linebacker David Walker was making a great impression.
Tim Steller’s column: Grant Road businesses fold as construction adds to woes
For Star subscribers: The reconstruction of Grant Road is helping kill off Tucson businesses already weakened by street drug addiction and the sumer doldrums.
Mayfield Leaves Door Open For Bucs’ Deal During Season
Despite feeling undervalued by Tampa Bay’s recent offers, the disgruntled quarterback signals a willingness to negotiate mid-season if the front office finally offers a long-term commitment.
In Oregon, big grocery, retail companies have highest number of employees on Medicaid
Multi-billion-dollar grocers and retailers such as Walmart and Amazon were among the most listed employers on Oregonians’ applications for publicly-funded health insurance last year, according to a Capital Chronicle analysis of Oregon Health Authority data.
Vita Vea is not practicing at Bucs camp
Bucs announce three roster moves
Baker Mayfield will reportedly play 2026 season on expiring deal, pick up contract talks with Bucs in offseason
Buccaneers DT Vita Vea Requests Trade Following Stalled Extension Talks
Extension talks between Vita Vea and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have officially hit a wall and the star defensive tackle is now requesting a trade.
Bucs defensive tackle Vita Vea reportedly seeking trade
Vea is expected to report for training camp on Tuesday.
At UCSB, this science education program sparks connection, innovation among kids - Santa Barbara News-Press
For around 15 years, SciTrek has led one-week lessons on topics including physics, biology, conservation of mass, fermentation and cellular respiration
U of A researchers lament 'explicit politicization of science' under Trump
Former and current researchers at the University of Arizona are somewhat divided on whether UA administrators are doing enough to push back against the Trump administration’s cutting of federal research
“Graphic Talk About Science: Adventures in Science Engagement”
Mount Wilson Observatory (MWO), Southern California’s esteemed home to several of the most groundbreaking astronomical discoveries in history, welcomes the public to the third Saturday Evening Talks & Telescopes of the season on Saturday, July 25, 2026. MWO is honored to present “Graphic Talk About Science: Adventures in Science Engagement,” a lecture by Clifford V. Johnson, from UCSB. This lecture explores how graphic storytelling can make cutting-edge physics more accessible, as Johnson discusses the science and creative process behind his illustrated book, “The Dialogues: Conversations About the Nature of the Universe.” Tickets are available here: www.mtwilson.edu/events/lecture072526 During the six-month season, each Talks & Telescopes event runs from 5:30pm to 11:30pm with the “talk” portion of the evening beginning in the Observatory’s Auditorium. The 60+ minute presentation is followed by picnic dining—bring your own, or purchase from a food truck or caterer—and then, after the sun goes down, stargazing through Mount Wilson’s immense telescopes, the largest in the world made available to the public. Additional stargazing around the grounds will be available thanks to members of the Los Angeles Astronomical Society. Both the 60-inch telescope and the 100-inch—the latter famously used by Edwin Hubble to discover the expanding universe—will be available for viewing the night sky. Priced at $50, this event series offers the most economical stargazing event option on the mountain. Tickets and more information are available on Mount Wilson Observatory’s website here: www.mtwilson.edu/lectures. Advance purchases are highly recommended. UPCOMING SATURDAY EVENING TALKS & TELESCOPES OF THE 2026 SEASON August 22: “Towards a Functional Cosmology” www.mtwilson.edu/events/lecture082226 Join artist Lita Albuquerque for a lecture on her multidisciplinary practice at the intersection of art, science, and cosmology. Drawing on decades of work across painting, land art, performance, and installation, she reflects on projects created in remote, astronomy-linked environments and how they shape her exploration of time, space, and human perception. September 19: “The Brightness of Stars: Henrietta Leavitt and the Transformative Nature of Attention in Art and Science” www.mtwilson.edu/events/lecture091926 Visual artist and author Anna Von Mertens explores the life and legacy of Henrietta Leavitt, whose study of variable stars enabled the first reliable measurements of cosmic distances. Working among the Harvard Computers, Leavitt laid the foundation for breakthroughs at Mount Wilson, including Harlow Shapley’s mapping of the Milky Way and Edwin Hubble’s discovery of an expanding universe. Drawing from her book “Attention Is Discovery: The Life and Legacy of Astronomer Henrietta Leavitt,” Von Mertens shares archival materials alongside her own artwork inspired by Leavitt’s life, to celebrate how careful attention leads to both scientific discovery and a meaningful life. October 17: “The Duality of Genius and Struggle: G.E. Hale” www.mtwilson.edu/events/lecture101726 This talk, presented by Sam Hale, explores the extraordinary life and legacy of his grandfather, George Ellery Hale—the visionary behind some of the world’s most important astronomical institutions. Drawing on both history and personal connection, Sam Hale offers insight into a legacy that continues to shape science and culture today. VISITING MWO The gate to Mount Wilson’s campus opens at 10:00am daily and closes at 5:00pm from early April through November. Entrance to the grounds is free. Visitors can hike, gaze at the telescope domes and towers that dot the landscape, and take a look at historic Mount Wilson photos and letters in the Museum. The Cosmic Cafe (www.mtwilson.edu/cosmic-cafe), located above the main parking lot at the Observatory entrance, is open on weekends in the spring, summer, and fall. In addition to traditional menu items such as hot dogs, drinks, and snacks, the Cafe offers wraps, salads, and sweet treats from Little Flower. PARKING A U.S. Forest Service Adventure Pass is required to park at the Observatory. A $5 day pass or a $30 dollar annual pass may be purchased at the Cosmic Cafe on weekends between 10:00am and 5:00pm. During the week, passes are available at locations around Los Angeles. The most convenient location before heading up is at the Shell station in La Canada Flintridge at the bottom of the Angeles Crest Highway (https://find.shell.com/us/fuel/10007957-4530-angeles-crest-hwy/en_US). Visit the U.S. Forest Service website for more information about Passes and other locations to buy them: www.fs.usda.gov/r05/passes/adventure-pass For more information about Visiting Mount Wilson Observatory, please visit: www.mtwilson.edu/visiting NOT ADA-COMPLIANT Please be advised that access to the 100-inch dome is via an open-air, 53-step staircase inside the building. There is no ADA-compliant access.
Bucs' Biggest Training Camp Storyline Revealed
Beyond contract disputes, Tampa Bay's season hinges on Baker Mayfield’s health. After a brutal, injury-plagued year, can the quarterback find his ceiling and secure his future with the franchise?
Bucs' Biggest Training Camp Storyline Revealed
Beyond contract disputes, Tampa Bay's season hinges on Baker Mayfield’s health. After a brutal, injury-plagued year, can the quarterback find his ceiling and secure his future with the franchise?
Pair of Bucs Selected to 'NFL All-Backup Team'
New free-agent acquisitions Kenneth Gainwell and Al-Quadin Muhammad earn national recognition for providing the crucial roster depth necessary to spark Tampa Bay’s return to the postseason.
Pair of Bucs Selected to 'NFL All-Backup Team'
New free-agent acquisitions Kenneth Gainwell and Al-Quadin Muhammad earn national recognition for providing the crucial roster depth necessary to spark Tampa Bay’s return to the postseason.
Editorial: Much-needed UC admissions fixes slowed by ‘the politics of testing’
Thousands and thousands of students who got into UC only to be shamed by their placement into remedial classes.
Update: Attacks on Independent Science and How We’re Fighting Back
UCS is helping to rebuild federal science infrastructure and institutions from outside the government… to preserve what’s being dismantled within it.
Pirates reportedly listening to offers for Oneil Cruz
The Bucs are reportedly thinking of dealing Cruz.
Bucs' Trotter Named Training Camp ‘Rookie to Watch’
As Todd Bowles faces a make-or-break season, second-round pick Josiah Trotter emerges as the heir to Lavonte David’s legacy in a revamped Tampa Bay defense.
Mayfield: Bucs' Victory Over Jets Last Season Was 'Personal'
Behind-the-scenes footage reveals Baker Mayfield’s fueled vendetta against former coach Steve Wilks, turning a gritty Week 3 showdown into a high-stakes mission for redemption and a 3-0 start.
Biggs Institute at UT Health San Antonio to lead $2.5 million national, multi-site study on dementia with Lewy bodies
Teaming with UF, UCSF and VCU to improve detection, bring hope Contacts: UT Health San Antonio, Steven Lee, (210) 450-3823, lees22@uthscsa.edu University of Florida, Jill Pease, (352) 273-5816, jpease@PHHP.UFL.EDU University of California San Francisco, Suzanne Leigh, (415) 476-2993, suzanne.leigh@ucsf.edu Virginia Commonwealth University, Leigh Farmer, (804) 828-7028, forresterlg@vcu.edu SAN ANTONIO, July 21, 2026 – The Glenn […]
Bucs' Biggest Remaining Roster Issue Named Before Training Camp
Despite a revamped defense and high-powered backfield, Tampa Bay’s postseason hopes could hinge on a neglected tight end room currently lacking depth behind starter Cade Otton.
Businesses worry about perception of Tucson mass shooting
The yellow police tape cordoning off East Congress Street Sunday didn’t come down until the better part of the day had passed.
Which Bucs' defender is flying under-the-radar in 2026?
The Bucs' secondary needs to take a big step up in 2026 and they can achieve that if one player makes a second-year leap.
What stat will define success for the Bucs in 2026?
The Bucs' defense is going to see their season dictated based one stat.
Downtown Tucson business speaks out about safety in the area after mass shooting
Two of the victims in Sunday's mass shooting in downtown Tucson were on the patio of Empire Pizza when gunfire rang out. Now the business is calling out a lack
Michael Harris II's Breakout Is Confirmed Two Ways, Not One
Fresh off the All-Star break, Michael Harris II went full highlight reel this weekend. If you're a Harris owner, you might expect another hot half, but you might be better off treating this weekend as a stepping-off point to trade for a more reliable asset. Statcast, always a downer, is a lot less impressed than conventional wisdom.
Bucs Called Out Over $30 Million ‘Biggest Roster Issue”
NFL.com's Matt Okada singled out tight end as the "Biggest Remaining Roster Issue" for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers headed into the season. The post Bucs Called Out Over $30 Million ‘Biggest Roster Issue” appeared first on HEAVY.
Bucs' Wirfs Ranked One of NFL's Top-10 Franchise Players
As an elite left tackle with Hall of Fame potential, Tristan Wirfs anchors Tampa Bay’s future while outshining nearly every non-quarterback on this exclusive ranking of cornerstone players.
‘Children of Blood and Bone’ first-look photos depict Regina King on her throne, Cynthia Erivo ready for battle
First-look photos from the ‘Children of Blood and Bone’ movie show the all-star cast wearing colorful threads on sweeping sets.
Bucs suggested to try and trade away an underperforming linebacker
After the moves made this offseason, the time is now for the Bucs to move on from SirVocea Dennis.
Same Care, New Space: Triton Health and Wellness Building Opens
Located in Triton Center, the new heart of the UC San Diego campus, the Triton Health and Wellness Building expands and centralizes support for students, providing access to physical health, mental health and well-being resources.
Science Is Under Attack. But Scientists Are Speaking Up
On May 29, 2026, the White House’s Office of Management and Budget (OMB) proposed a revision to the Regulation for Federal Financial Assistance (“the OMB rule”) that would put much of science in the U.S. under the thumb of the Trump administration. How? By giving political appointees unprecedented p
UCSB week-long event gives physically disabled campers opportunity to play variety of sports
Since 1986, the Santa Barbara sports camp for kids and young adults with physical disabilities has been one of the few of its kind in the state
Netflix Docuseries Reveals Extent of Bucs’ Mayfield's Injuries Last Season
From sprained ligaments to an injured shoulder, behind-the-scenes footage uncovers the grueling physical toll Baker Mayfield endured while starting every game during Tampa Bay’s turbulent 2025 campaign.
Bucs' ‘Biggest Bust’ Predicted for 2026
Facing a defensive overhaul and new competition, linebacker SirVocea Dennis must sharpen his coverage skills or risk losing his roster spot to high-profile free agents and rising rookies.
2026 Bucs training camp preview: Quarterback
Baker Mayfield's contract situation looms over Tampa Bay heading into training camp.
Bucs Fare Better in New NFL Power Rankings
Bolstered by fresh talent and a weak division, Tampa Bay aims for a resurgence, yet looming locker room tensions and a coaching hot seat threaten its stability.
Former Bucs Draft Pick Called ‘Biggest Bust’ for AFC Team
Bleacher Report's Moe Moton singled out former Bucs DT Logan Hall as the NFL's "Biggest Bust" in 2026 with the Houston Texans. The post Former Bucs Draft Pick Called ‘Biggest Bust’ for AFC Team appeared first on HEAVY.
Bucs Ranked Very Low in Offseason Power Rankings
Haunted by a historic late-season collapse and the departure of franchise icons, Tampa Bay faces skepticism as critics question if this roster can still dominate the division.
Super Bowl champion LB says 49ers' scheme gave him nightmares
Retired Bucs LB Lavonte David says the Shanahan-era 49ers gave him more trouble than any offense he faced late in his career.
$198 Million Super Bowl MVP Teases Signing With Cowboys
Legendary edge rusher, NFL All-Pro and Super Bowl MVP Von Miller teased signing with the Dallas Cowboys on his Instagram Stories. The post $198 Million Super Bowl MVP Teases Signing With Cowboys appeared first on HEAVY.
How Attribution Science Uses Models to Uncover Climate Change’s Effects on Weather
Running climate model simulations with—and without—observed human influences can quantify how emissions changed the probability or intensity of a weather event.
UC Santa Cruz researchers at NASA COFFIES Science Center make breakthrough on solar enigma
Researchers are closer to unraveling a long-standing solar mystery surrounding the extreme thinness of the Sun’s tachocline layer
Mike Beck appointed to California Ocean Science Trust's board of trustees
State Secretary for Natural Resources named Beck and Cal Poly Humboldt's Eric Riggs to serve on the unique science-policy bridging organization's board, citing their distinguished leadership and deep expertise in coastal climate resilience and marine STEM education.
New Faculty Research Lecturer Thuc-Quyen Nguyen reflects on science, mentorship and resilience
Nguyen, a distinguished professor of chemistry and biochemistry, will deliver her lecture during the 2026-2027 academic year
NFL offseason power rankings: No. 22 Tampa Bay Buccaneers try to shake off a brutal finish to last season
Envisioning Federal Scientific Integrity as a Tool to Protect Democracy and Fight Corruption
How can we preserve scientific integrity policies in the next administration when they've proven to be subject to political whims?
Bucs Mayfield Sees His Own Redemption Arc in Kyler Murray
From collegiate hand-offs to unceremonious exits, Tampa Bay’s signal-caller defends his former backup’s move to Minnesota, drawing powerful parallels between their shared paths to professional survival.
The Nationals scorch the Pirates with 5 home runs to push Bucs back under .500
WASHINGTON — The ball was flying on a scorching Friday in D.C. It didn’t seem to fly as far for the Pirates. The Washington Nationals hit five...
Harsh Medicine: Fixing Science’s Gender Gap
We talk to UCSF distinguished professor Jennifer Grandis about the issues still facing women in science and health care.
Bucs' Mayfield Disrespected in New QB Tier Rankings
Despite delivering Pro Bowl performances and stabilizing Tampa Bay post-Brady, Baker Mayfield remains overlooked, landing in a baffling "volatile" tier behind less proven signal-callers and aging stars.
Former Bucs edge rusher among notable free agents unsigned
Bleacher Report's Alex Kay believes former Buccaneers edge rusher Haason Reddick is still one of the top defensive free agents available.
South Coast Business & Technology Awards Raises More Than $200,000 for Scholarship Foundation
William Wang, Mission Wealth, and UCSB Dept. of Technology Management among the honorees
A New Way to Uncover How Science Is Under Attack
Science is being threatened at a pace and scale we’ve never seen before in the federal government. It’s nearly overwhelming—but we’ve built a new system to help us monitor and explain what’s happening, looking both incident by incident and at the larger pattern. Last week, the Union of Concerned
Tucson summer heat brings business slowdown to Catalina Foothills shops
A Catalina Foothills Vietnamese restaurant owner says summer heat and fewer snowbirds are slowing sales near Sabino Canyon.
2026 Fantasy football profile: Bucs WR Ted Hurst
A look at the fantasy profile for Bucs wide receiver Ted Hurst.
Making Our Own Luck
We are cross-posting a piece that former NIH official Kris Willis wrote for Macroscience. Kris is now the President and Founder of the Woodley Park Institute, for which I’m a board member. Picking winners or hedging bets? Federal science agencies have long wrestled with the question of how to ensure their billions of dollars of grants and contracts result in maximum benefits for Americans. On the surface, it might seem that a goal-oriented, interventionist style of management would be the best policy: prioritize our most pressing problems and distribute funding accordingly.This top-down strategy creates a unique hazard, though: bad choices can send resources in the wrong direction, resulting in slow progress that impedes the delivery of tangible benefits to citizens. Moreover, if decision makers pursue an applied advance when the underlying scientific principles remain poorly understood, they risk costly failures and a loss of support for the research enterprise at large. Examples include Nixon’s 1971 War on Cancer, undertaken on the premise that a cure could be achieved in less than a decade, the drive to build an operational commercial fusion plant by the mid-1990s, and the National Plan to Address Alzheimer’s Disease, which failed to produce the effective treatments and prevention strategies promised by 2025. The contrasting laissez-faire approach is to hedge your bets. If the path to an advance is impossible to predict, then the wisest choice might be to distribute funding to as widely as possible. The main risk of this strategy is that spreading funding thinly may limit the resources available to the most promising research, resulting in the same negative outcomes as the interventionist approach: limited support for the most promising topics, slow progress, and delayed returns. In reality, at science agencies like the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health, program managers navigate between these two extremes, setting some funds aside to target high-priority areas and using the rest to cover the widest possible range of meritorious proposals. This middle path seems like the most rational way to proceed, but it still requires making choices. How much should be set aside for high priority topics? What should those topics be? How should we define merit? Expert opinion can provide a helpful guide, but leading experts can have remarkably different opinions about what matters and what should be prioritized. Moreover, experts and administrators alike can be risk averse, giving an edge to high-profile, well-established concepts. What’s really needed is a data-driven framework to help guide decision-making, one that doesn’t simply repackage prestige or incumbency. Recognizing breakthroughs years in advance Many breakthroughs fail to attract funding or recognition at the earliest stages of development. Katalin Karikó, for example, spent years struggling to win grants for work on mRNA that would eventually win her and Drew Weissman a Nobel Prize. Similar stories can be told about Jim Allison’s groundbreaking studies leading to the development of cancer immunotherapy, Stan Pruisner’s demonstration that prions can self-replicate without DNA, or Robin Warren and Barry Marshall’s proof that Helicobacter pylori, not stress, causes ulcers. Yet at some point, the scientific community recognizes and responds to transformative breakthroughs like these. How does that change happen? And what if science funders could identify the areas that are on the cusp of a breakthrough? Those questions led my collaborators and me to study how scientists responded to past breakthroughs. Based on patterns in that data, we developed a means of predicting future breakthroughs, using biomedicine as a proof of concept. It’s worth taking a moment to describe how our approach works. Briefly, our prediction process begins by grouping the 18 million or so peer-reviewed papers in PubMed, the authoritative database of biomedical research, into roughly 50,000 unique topics. A small subset of these topics are so widely acclaimed as breakthroughs that they have been recognized with a major prize like a Nobel or a Lasker Award. We theorized that studying the development of these outliers over time, especially before they gained acclaim, was the key to identifying future instances of them. After defining topics, we chose 21 representative breakthroughs and asked what they looked like before they won prestigious prizes. To answer that question, we re-ran our topic-mapping algorithm repeatedly, winding back the clock one year each time, stringing together the years to follow the progress of each field as it grew and advanced. We found that in each case, the years leading up to a discovery followed a pattern: a burst of papers on a new, rapidly evolving topic, many of which quickly became influential. These characteristics—the percent of papers that are new, the percentage of papers that are brought in from other topics, and the influence of each individual paper—can all be measured separately for any given topic. Together, they act as a predictive signal that is detectable an average of five years before a transformative discovery is made, and up to thirty years before the discovery receives a major prize. Scanning the current research landscape for topics that display this signal allows us to predict what work will likely produce a future breakthrough. Each year we analyzed includes four or five signals, a number that appears to have remained constant across a twenty year time frame. In their classic work on the sociology of science, Bruno Latour and Steve Woolgar established that the desire to participate in a major discovery is an important motivator for scientists as they consider whether they should take up (or abandon) a research problem. Although further work is needed, the simplest explanation for our results is that this behavior is widespread enough to detect at scale. A foundational advance, or something like it, draws the attention of scientists and causes them to change the direction of their research. They vote with their feet, staking their own reputation and careers by publishing on and citing the new idea. That upswell of interest is the foundation of our breakthrough signal. What kind of research does our model identify as a breakthrough? After building a model based on the patterns in our 21 preselected breakthroughs, we tested it by identifying all early signals of discovery from 1994 through 1997. Of the 18 signals we found in that time period, 17 can be traced forward in time to a breakthrough. Examples include super-resolution fluorescence microscopy (see the image above), the directed evolution of proteins and enzymes (Chemistry Nobel, 2018), and sequencing the human genome (National Medal of Science, 2008). The discovery of the role of leptin signaling in obesity is a particularly interesting case study. Around 1950, scientists noticed the existence of a type of lab mouse that suffered from a unique inherited form of obesity. When given the freedom to choose their own diet, these mice ate more than normal and preferred food that was high in fat. Researchers had few clues as to why the animals overate; early experiments pointed to the existence of a soluble ob factor found circulating in the bloodstream that regulated appetite, but its identity was unknown. In 1994, Jeffrey Friedman and colleagues identified and sequenced the ob gene, noting that the protein it encoded appeared to fit the profile of a circulating factor. A year later, a trio of high-profile publications demonstrated that ob was a hormone that regulated body weight and fat deposition by regulating appetite. One of these was co-authored by Friedman, who christened it leptin from the ancient Greek word for thin. Using our model, the data from 1996 make it clear this advance would become a breakthrough. Scientists had flocked to study the biology of the new hormone, generating the flurry of new papers and citations required to produce a signal. One of these demonstrated that serum leptin concentrations reflected the amount of adipose tissue in the human body, providing clinical validation of the earlier mouse studies. Before the identification of leptin, scientists were unable to point to a specific molecule that controlled appetite and adiposity, so that it was impossible to rule out non-physiological causes of obesity; its characterization fundamentally changed our concept of weight gain. In 2010, Friedman and fellow pioneer Douglas Coleman were awarded a Lasker for the discovery. Our work also identifies breakthroughs in clinical practice and behavioral and social sciences, even though these areas are less likely to draw the attention of major prize committees. One example that falls into this category is the introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair, a minimally invasive surgical procedure for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm, a leading cause of death among Americans over the age of 65. Relative to the previous standard of care, it reduces in-hospital mortality by almost four-fold. In 2017, Timothy Chuter received the American College of Surgeons’ prestigious Jacobsen Innovation award for his multiple refinements to the technique. Another under-recognized breakthrough identified by our model is the development of standardized survey instruments to assess the quality of life for HIV+ patients. The antiretroviral cocktails introduced in the mid-1990s reduced AIDS mortality, but treatment came with serious side effects. The new evaluations showed that patients whose disease progressed had worse physical functioning than Americans with other chronic diseases, while those who were asymptomatic maintained a health-related quality of life on par with the overall US population. This evidence made it possible for patients and activists to argue that even in the absence of a total cure, and in spite of the side effects, alleviation of symptoms was a worthwhile priority for clinicians. My colleagues and I have failed to identify any significant recognition for the physicians and health policy experts who pioneered this advance, although in 2016, researchers called for the World Health Organization to set targets for good health-related quality of life as part of its framework to end the AIDS pandemic. From forecasting to funding How should science funders use our predictions? Any serious discussion of what we should do with this new capability needs to begin with an understanding of its limitations. We can’t (and shouldn’t) invest all of our resources in the small number of topics predicted to produce breakthroughs. Innovative new fields are born from existing ones; they rarely arise de novo. If funders don’t maintain a diverse portfolio, the breakthroughs of tomorrow will have no antecedents. Think of this as eating the seed corn, or killing the goose that lays the golden egg. There are also multiple goals of funding beyond basic scientific discovery, including translating discoveries into clinical practice, developing new technologies, supporting economic development, and training new scientists. The investments needed to accomplish these goals are likely different from those required to support emerging breakthroughs. Finally, we must be aware that we may not capture every instance of a breakthrough. The concept is fuzzy, and not every significant discovery is recognized with a major award. Further, breakthroughs are rare, meaning that our dataset is, by necessity, small. This makes formal estimates of accuracy challenging. Although our overall success rate appears to be high, any one signal may turn out to be a false positive. We found one apparent example: the development of the third generation COX-2 inhibitors, Vioxx and Celebrex, which were much celebrated in the early 2000s as effective but non-addictive pain relievers, meets all the algorithmic criteria of a breakthrough. Five years after it received FDA approval, researchers demonstrated that Vioxx was associated with serious cardiovascular complications, and the manufacturer voluntarily pulled the drug from the market. Celebrex remains available, although like other NSAIDs, it carries an FDA warning for increased cardiovascular risk. Decision makers who were overly focused on the breakthrough potential of this research might have wasted substantial resources nurturing an area that ultimately proved to be a failure—but so would those who relied on expert opinion at the time. That said, the potential benefits of funding the next mRNA vaccine or cancer immunotherapy years earlier than we might have are large. When we can’t assume the outcome of an action, it’s worth conducting an experiment. Can targeted support for areas that are poised to produce a breakthrough increase the return on scientific investment without cannibalizing future advances? With the necessary administrative infrastructure in place, conducting this experiment would be straightforward. First, identify all the breakthrough signals between 2018 and 2023, select half at random, and commit to a decade of investment. For biomedicine, a six year window should yield about 30 topics with the potential to produce a breakthrough. Providing strong support to half of these might be accomplished for $300 million a year. That’s roughly half of the recent annual budget of the NIH Common Fund or around 20% of the fiscal year 2025 budget for ARPA-H. After five years, then again at ten, compare to see which group — the one that was actively managed, or the control — produced more breakthroughs, and on what timescale. Although we used biomedicine as an example, the same experiment could just as well be run for physics, materials science, or any other discipline. Any attempt to undertake such an experiment should keep three points top of mind. First, we can predict the topic of future breakthroughs, but the people and vision for how to move the work forward are still important. In practice, this means success requires active program managers with the expertise to develop the science and the authority to do so, including by recruiting investigators. Second, we would be wise to learn from the failures of past attempts to fund transformative research. High among these are funding modestly repackaged work, confusing the genuinely novel with the merely unfamiliar, and relying too much on incumbent investigators. All of these risks can be mitigated by thoroughly and intelligently integrating high quality data into portfolio management. Finally, we need to have patience. Even with strong funding support, producing a breakthrough takes time. If supporting breakthroughs is the best way to nurture the birth of new fields, we also need to accurately describe and properly manage the other two stages, so that we invest wisely throughout the productive lifetime of ideas and divest once they reach the point of diminishing returns. We would benefit from more study of all of these phases, especially the transition from one to another. More research could answer questions like: When does a breakthrough become an established field? How do the availability of funding, the size and characteristics of the available workforce, and the accumulation of evidence that disagrees with prevailing models affect a field’s decline? Exactly how do old ideas give birth to new ones, and can we speed up the process? The more we understand about the dynamics of scientific progress, the better we can maximize the odds that our curiosity leads to results. I’d call that finding a way to make our own luck.
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