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Facing Barbs and Pressure From Trump, Europe's Leaders Close Ranks
ROME (AP) — U.S. President Donald Trump’s attacks on Italy’s premier have had an unintended consequence. After Trump questioned Italy’s reliability as a wartime ally and claimed Giorgia Meloni had groveled for his attention, European leaders rallied to Meloni's side, thawing what had been a frosty ...
New requirements for sports agents in Louisiana aim to protect student-athletes
The launch of the online portal comes after a state law went into effect last month, increasing regulatory oversight of endorsement contracts and sports agents.
Trinity Health Grand Rapids works to offer more free medication
Trinity Health Grand Rapids is rolling out a new program that aims to get prescription medicine to some of the lowest-income patients in West Michigan.
Xbox is reportedly considering dropping disc drives as it tests new feature that lets players digitize physical games
A new report now claims Xbox, like PlayStation, is set to "drop the disc drive."
Gulfstream Claims Record for Fastest, Farthest Business Jet Flight
Manufacturer announced the milestone alongside its 800th city pair speed record, achieved by its new G800.
Apple's Hide My Email feature has a bug that's been exposing real email addresses, researcher claims
Research appears to reveal a bug that could render the feature effectively useless.
Opinion: Proposed federal grant rules are attempt to ‘muzzle’ science | Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health
A proposed overhaul in how federal grants are awarded is aimed at shutting down scientific research on disfavored topics such as health disparities, climate change, gender identity, and vaccines, according to Harvard Chan School’s Nancy Krieger.
'This Is Borderline Evil' - Minecraft Creator Speaks Out Against ESA Calling Private Servers 'Illegal'
Minecraft creator, Markus 'Notch' Persson, has spoken out against the Electronic Software Association for claiming that private servers are "illegal."
July’s three PlayStation Plus ‘free’ Essential monthly games include Call of Duty Modern Warfare 3
There are three games available for subscribers to claim this month…
Taylor Swift Wants Final Approval Over Travis Kelce Wedding Footage
Taylor Swift is reportedly filming her nuptials with Travis Kelce but wants the final word over the wedding footage. Sources claimed that the singer has hired a professional crew to document her speci...
Steelers rival turns Myles Garrett loss into scary new claim
The Cleveland Browns are turning the Myles Garrett trade into a rallying point, and Jared Verse could make that bad news for the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Lightfoot claims Bally’s work doesn’t violate revolving door rules
Joining Bally’s could help Lightfoot preserve one of her top achievements as mayor, but is hard to square with her reformer credentials, a top watchdog told Crain’s.
Spartan Venture launches with aim to boost revenue for sports and student-athletes
Spartan Ventures launches today as a way for the university to bring in more money for sports and student athletes.
Rockstar accused of ignoring pay inequity and mandating crunch
Multiple current Rockstar employees and union members based in the UK claim the Grand Theft Auto maker is failing its workforce.
Pop-up warnings on social media? Minnesota law aims to ease negative mental health impacts
New warning labels will pop up on social media sites and apps to flag potential mental health risks of spending too much time online.
Josh Hokit calls for UFC to cut Tom Aspinall
Heavyweight contender Josh Hokit took aim at champion Tom Aspinall over inactivity and wants the UFC to strip Aspinall of the heavyweight title and release him from the organization. He also continued to take shots at former two-division titleholder Alex Pereira. "This crybaby has lost all of his ...
Central College to offer data science major
Central College will begin offering a new degree program this fall aimed at preparing students for data-focused professions across a number of industries. The Pella private college announced in a
Kathy Griffin claims she's 'banned' from Jimmy Fallon's 'Tonight Show' for being 'too controversial'
Kathy Griffin claims she was informally 'banned' from Jimmy Fallon's 'Tonight Show' for being 'inappropriate or too controversial,' and slammed the show for platforming the likes of Donald Trump and Conor McGregor.
Expanding Maternal Care in New Mexico Through Data and Mental Health Support
No two pregnancies or childbirths are the same, but every New Mexico family deserves the same access to safe, high-quality maternal-fetal care. Two University of New Mexico School of Medicine projects aim to improve how providers care for pregnant...
Wilmington Small Business Coalition: Building Momentum in 2026 by Heather McWhorter
This article was contributed by Lydia Thomas, UNCW CIE Program Manager. North Carolina continues to be one of the best states to start a business and in 2025, Wilmington, North Carolina earned a spot on the GoDaddy list of the top 10 most entrepreneurial cities in the U.S. While many know Wilmington as small beach town with exceptional food, lots of coffee shops, and fun, vibrant summer activities, a closer look reveals a thriving innovation economy. You’ll find startups emerging across industries including software, healthtech, bluetech, and fintech. At the core of this entrepreneurial ecosystem is the Wilmington Small Business Coalition, with small business advocates and entrepreneur support organizations (ESOs) dedicated to helping founders grow, thrive, and succeed. “No Wrong Door” Established in 2016, the Coalition was designed to make it easier for individuals and small businesses to access resources most suited to their particular needs. The Coalition is designed to have a “no wrong door” entryway into the regional startup ecosystem. Whether you are exploring a new idea sketched on the back of a napkin or leading a more established, growth-stage company, Coalition members can help connect you with the programs, funding opportunities, mentors, and resources best suited to your needs. No matter where you are in your entrepreneurial journey, any Coalition organization can help point you in the right direction. Coalition Members and Leadership Coalition members include the UNCW Center for Innovation and Entrepreneurship (UNCW CIE), AARP, Brunswick Community College Small Business Center, Cape Fear Community College Small Business Center, Cape Fear Region SCORE, Genesis Block Foundation, Network for Entrepreneurs in Wilmington (NEW), Small Business & Technology Development Center (SBTDC), Greater Wilmington Chamber of Commerce, YWCA Living the Dream Center for Entrepreneurship, Carolina Community Impact Fund (CCI Fund), Partner Community Capital, 717mkt Office Collaborative, NC Biotech, and Institute NC. In May 2026, the Coalition held its leadership elections, resulting in the selection of a new executive team. The following officers were elected to serve two-year terms: Chair: Lydia Thomas, UNCW CIE Vice Chair: Diane Lantz, CCI Fund Secretary: Aariene Hansley, Genesis Block Foundation Treasurer: Gloria Monroe, SBTDC Vision for the Wilmington Small Business Coalition In 2026, the Wilmington Small Business Coalition continues its work as a collaborative network of organizations. By connecting programs, expertise, and services across partner organizations, entrepreneurs can more easily find the right support at the right time. Rather than operating in silos, the Coalition aims to function as a unified, cohesive system of support for small businesses and entrepreneurs, ensuring that resources and expertise across partner organizations are visible and accessible. Through stronger collaboration and shared pathways, entrepreneurs can move more seamlessly from idea to startup to growth. Looking to dive into the Wilmington entrepreneurial ecosystem? Connect with any of the Coalition partners to get started! Connect with CIE To learn more about CIE and our services, programs, and events, join the CIE newsletter. You can also follow us on social media: Instagram, Facebook, LinkedIn, TikTok, or YouTube. CIE’s website is uncw.edu/cie. Heather McWhorter is the director of the UNCW Center for Innovation and Entrepreneurship (CIE). CIE supports innovation-forward start-ups and helps to build a vibrant innovation economy for all in southeast NC.
Trump announces Republican midterm convention in Dallas in September
President Donald Trump has announced that Republicans will hold their first-ever national convention ahead of the midterm elections, an unusual event aimed at boosting turnout in races that will decide whether the party maintains control of Congress.
Anthropic's New AI Workbench Mapped My Field For $26. Now Imagine It Aimed At The Rest Of Science
Anthropic's Claude Science is a capable AI research workbench built for molecular biology. The opportunities for the rest of science are enormous.
Trump announces midterm convention for Republicans in Dallas in September
The event is aimed at boosting turnout in races that will decide whether the party maintains control of Congress
Researchers say Anthropic’s Claude Science will boost drug discovery
Anthropic's Claude Science aims to speed up drug discovery. Northeastern scientists weigh in on what it could mean for their research.
Western Pa. nurse accused in lawsuit of causing 2 patient deaths, stealing drugs
A federal lawsuit accuses Heritage Valley Health System and staff members of enabling alleged crimes by emergency department nurse Nolan Chismire, including drug theft, false insurance claims, and failures in patient care allegedly linked to two deaths.
Jacobs Entertainment moves ahead with sign along I-80, seeks approval for two skywalks
Jacobs Entertainment plans to build a neon sign and skyways in Reno's Neon Line District, aiming to enhance pedestrian safety and attract visitors.
CalChamber has lost the plot: It’s time to reclaim the fight for California business
CalChamber must stop asking for a seat at the table and start demanding a change in the menu.
Anthropic releases Claude Science, a product aimed at researchers, the pharma industry
Anthropic released Claude Science, an application that optimizes its large language model for scientists and, especially, those doing research at pharma companies.
Longtime Clinton aide walks back claim former president visited Epstein island, sources say
A longtime aide to Bill Clinton walked back a prior claim that the former president visited Jeffrey Epstein’s island, according to two sources familiar with closed-door testimony on Capitol Hill.
Blue Origin still doesn't know why its New Glenn rocket blew up last month
But the company is still claiming that New Glenn will return to flight this year.
Peptides are everywhere in health and beauty, but does the science actually back up the claims?
Peptides are everywhere — promising to fix wrinkles, weight gain, and even torn ligaments. But are they safe? The FDA is moving to expand access. Here's what a medical expert wants you to know. 👇
Report: Apple Watch Redesign Coming Next Year With New Band System
A "major overhaul" of the Apple Watch's design is due to arrive next year with a new system for connecting bands, according to a known Weibo leaker. In a set of recent posts, the leaker known as "Instant Digital" linked the new claim to older rumors about an "Apple Watch X" model, which was said to introduce a fresh design and break compatibility with the existing watch band system.
Specialized claims the new Tarmac SL9 is faster than the Colnago Y1Rs and Cervélo S5 when using "the only metric that matters"
Specialized says the new SL9 is faster than the Colnago Y1Rs, Cervélo S5 and Factor One when tested against the "the only metric that matters"
Curiously Colored Elephant Seal Causes A Stir In California State Park: Why Is It Purple?
What makes a seal turn purple? We actually have an answer.
Beyond Politics: A China-Born Journalist’s American Story
Plus, a professor’s lesson: The First Amendment favors verifying facts over accepting government claims. |WSJ China for June 30
Minecraft servers are apparently "illegal," according to the Vice President of America's biggest gaming association
The Entertainment Software Association's Jennifer Gibbons claimed that Minecraft servers were "illegal" and "not affiliated with Microsoft."
KFF Tracking Poll on Health Information and Trust: Update on Common Vaccine Myths
This poll looks at exposure to and belief in several vaccine myths and finds that people without a trusted health care provider, and those who regularly use social media or AI for health information, are generally more likely than others to belief the false claims. It also analyzes belief across vaccine myths, showing the share of the public that are consistent myth believers, consistent myth deniers, and those who land in the "mixed middle."
FDA staff recommendation undercuts RFK Jr.’s push to expand peptides
The chains of amino acids are increasingly marketed for antiaging and health benefits. However, medical experts say many of those claims have not yet been fully tested.
Barcelona and Atletico Madrid meet over Julian Alvarez transfer
Barcelona’s pursuit of Julian Alvarez appears to be moving into a decisive phase, with fresh reports claiming that direct contact has already taken place between the Catalan club and Atletico Madrid...
Colorado court rejects November ballot initiatives aimed at redrawing congressional districts
Colorado voters won’t get to decide this November on whether to change the state’s congressional districts to favor Democrats
Will Andy Burnham’s economic vision make us all better off?
Andy Burnham has made his first major speech since returning to Westminster. He set out his vision for a No10 in the North, for more council house building and repeated his claim that Westminster was “broken”.
How 'masculinism' is reshaping American politics
Can the new faultline in American political tribalism be broken down along the masculine question? Republican attacks against Texas Democratic Candidate for Senate James Talarcio falsely claim he's vegan as a challenge to his masculinity. While others in the GOP say they want to repeal the Woman's right to vote. What is he overarching strategy here. Why testosterone matters in today's politics.
Nancy Guthrie demand letter’s authenticity questioned by sheriff
Pima County Sheriff Chris Nanos weighs in on a new demand letter in the Nancy Guthrie case, which claims to know who kidnapped the mother of 'Today' host Savannah Guthrie.
Preaching the Gospel—not politics—at America’s 250th anniversary
As we approach the 250th anniversary of the founding of the United States, preachers face a sacred responsibility—to proclaim the Gospel and heed the signs of the times, without getting lost in political ideologies.
KARE 11 Spotlights Mental Health at USA Games through Special Olympics Strong Minds
KARE 11 visited Special Olympics Strong Minds to hear from USA Games athletes and volunteers about how the screening aims to address the mental health disparities faced by people with intellectual and developmental disabilities.
As business concerns mount, Washington Gov. Bob Ferguson taps Amazon, Microsoft and others to shape economic strategy
The group includes leaders from technology, aerospace, organized labor, higher education, tribal governments, ports and economic development organizations who will advise the governor on policies aimed at strengthening Washington's economy.
Fox News apologizes for Kevin O'Leary's data center opponents claim
Fox News host Johnny Joey Jones read out an apology on the channel's "Big Weekend Show" after O'Leary made the comments on the show in late May.
Expert: Tennessee Redistricting Plan Driven by Politics, Not Race
An expert defends Tennessee's congressional redistricting plan, arguing racial consequences stem from partisan aims, not racial discrimination.
Supreme Court will weigh Trump-backed Republican push to revive Arizona voting laws
WASHINGTON (AP) — The Supreme Court said Monday it will consider a Republican push to enforce strict Arizona voting laws passed in the swing state after the 2020 election. The high court has allowed some similar rules to take effect temporarily before, including Arizona's proof-of-citizenship requirement for state and local elections and a Virginia purge of voter rolls that the state said was aimed at keeping noncitizens from voting. READ MORE: Supreme Court rejects Trump's
After stunning Scottie Scheffler miss, Viktor Hovland claims Travelers Championship in Monday playoff
Scottie Scheffler and Viktor Hovland settled the Travelers Championship with a Monday morning playoff.
Naughty Dog Chose The Last of Us Remake Over Uncharted Remake, It's Claimed
Naughty Dog is no stranger to a remake, and evidence suggests an Uncharted 1 Remake was on the cards, with datamined files proving it.
Political Control of Research Funding Threatens Sound Science
Decades of federal research funding have led to breakthroughs in medicine, technology, and environmental science. A new OMB proposal aims to derail all of this through political interference.
Supreme court nears the end of its term with cases about Donald Trump’s power to be decided
Court expected to hand down decisions on several outstanding cases, wrapping up term that has focussed on Trump’s expansive claims of presidential power
Apple accuses India of 'copy-pasting' rivals' claims in antitrust investigation
Apple has accused Indian antitrust investigators of "copy-pasting" its rivals' claims and failing to properly conduct its own investigation in concluding the U.S. tech giant breached competition laws, calling for the findings to be quashed, regulatory papers reviewed by Reuters showed.
iPhone 18e Won't Get ProMotion Display, Says Leaker
Apple's upcoming iPhone 18e will have the same display refresh rate as the existing iPhone 17e, according to a prominent Chinese leaker. Discussing Apple's product plans for 2027 in a Weibo post, Digital Chat Station claimed that the next generation of Apple's low-cost iPhone will feature the same 60Hz low-temperature polycrystalline silicon (LTPS) TFT panel as the current model.
Xbox reportedly pausing new third-party Game Pass deals, developers say
Developers in line for Game Pass deals ‘got the rug pulled from under them’ it’s claimed…
PS6 Hardware Cost Estimated at $900+
The upcoming Sony PlayStation 6 is slated to launch sometime in 2028, and with recent reports claiming that the ongoing RAM crisis likely won't end or ease up much before then, concerns are mounting about the price of next-gen gaming consoles. Those concerns are seemingly justified, with ubiquitous ...
Master pianist Swann to perform Goldberg Variations
The Winter Harbor Music Festival will welcome internationally acclaimed pianist Jeffrey Swann for a special performance of J.S. Bach’s Goldberg Variations, BWV 988, on Saturday, July 11, at 7 p.m.
Health insurers are looking for MAHA wins
The companies are offering benefits aimed at appealing to Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and his Make America Healthy Again movement.
Efzimfotase alfa demonstrated improvements in bone health in treatment-naïve pediatric patients with hypophosphatasia achieving median difference of 1.67 vs placebo in RGI-C Score at week 25 in MULBERRY Phase III trial
Positive results from the MULBERRY Phase III trial showed that efzimfotase alfa (ALXN1850), an investigational enzyme replacement therapy, demonstrated a statistically significant and clinically meaningful improvement in bone health in children (2 to
Nebraska Democrats warn of new political party for spoiler candidates
Two top leaders with the Nebraska Democratic Party are warning of a new political party they believe aims to put spoiler candidates in Nebraska’s big midterm races.
Claims GTA 6 is selling 8 times as many copies on PS5 as Xbox "doesn't represent pre-order data", insists Microsoft
Microsoft has refuted claims that its rival system, the PlayStation 5, is outselling the Xbox edition of Grand Theft Auto 6 by a rate of 8-to-1.
Assessing the claim that the U.S. government is abandoning science
The people who do not trust science today would probably like to be able to. And the people who do trust it may simply be unaware of the problems.
Ossoff banks on Trump attacks in purple state and takes aim at rival Collins
‘People should wait for real data’: Xbox refutes claims that GTA 6 on PS5 is outselling Xbox 8-to-1
Xbox says it’s “had record orders” for the next Grand Theft Auto…
The AI Politics of 2028 Are Starting Now
Gina Raimondo and Eric Holcomb are not running for president. They might drive the 2028 agenda on artificial intelligence anyway.
Spotlight falls on Ocado boss Tim Steiner’s £100m in payouts
Reports claim replacement being lined up for co-founder amid concern over high pay and company’s struggling share price
Someone just released a SteamOS gaming PC before Valve even shipped its own
It has a very clever name.
Community baby shower in Landover aims to address disparities, promote healthier lifestyles
This weekend in Prince George’s County, people came together for a community baby shower aimed at promoting healthier lifestyles among Black and Brown families across the DMV. With a lot of energy and laughter in the room, hundreds of people gathered at Prince George’s Sports and Learning Complex in Landover. The free event offered support for expecting mothers and parents…
Drew Nesbitt claims one-shot lead heading into Sunday at Memorial Health Championship presented by LRS
Charting the leader (stats entering week)
Health care program in Boston working to ensure homeless women get care they need - Boston News, Weather, Sports
BOSTON (WHDH) - A health care program in Boston is aiming to ensure that homeless women in the area are getting the care they needRead More
Why soccer is life - Live Updates
“Sport is never just about sport. It is about storytelling and national storytelling,” says acclaimed playwright.
Free health clinic aims to expand care access on city's West Side
Free preventive care is coming to San Antonio’s West Side Saturday. The Health Collaborative’s Neighborhood Clinic offers 3D mammograms, screenings, vaccines, dental checks, food and help connecting to ongoing care.
Star Wars Eclipse in danger of cancelation, claim striking Quantic Dream developers
Workers protested in Paris over proposed layoffs at the Star Wars Eclipse studio…
Lawsuits filed against Pharr immigration-related business after filing unauthorized asylum claims
Two families have filed lawsuits against Pharr-based Ferrer Public Services, claiming the business filed unauthorized asylum applications that put their immigration status at risk.
LVMH and Accor's Orient Express sets its sights on new tech billionaire class
Shuttling across the French and Italian Riviera, Orient Express's first giant yacht aims to attract a new class of billionaire.
Good Sports: Former Bulldog track and field athlete aims to be flag football Olympian
Last June, Kaja Bins didn't know what flag football was. Kaja now has the potential to become an Olympian in a sport she learned a year ago.
Trump ramps up attacks on Democrats as ‘godless Communists’ ahead of November’s midterms
President Donald Trump on Friday seized on the electoral success of several democratic socialist candidates to ramp up his attacks on the Democratic Party, claiming it was being taken over by “godless Communists” who pose an existential threat to the nation.
‘We don’t see anything that was a problem.’ GOP candidate Steve Hilton reacts to Trump’s claims of election fraud in CA
Barker reclaims title at National Road Championships
Megan Barker reclaims her British elite women's circuit race title as the second day of the National Road Championships produces its second Welsh winner.
New Nancy Guthrie demand letter claims to have video from her 'last' day: Report
A new demand letter about Nancy Guthrie reportedly claims to have video of the 84-year-old and her kidnapper on 'the day that was probably her last.'
Kylie Jenner's former chef alleges 'intense' workload led to miscarriage
Kylie Jenner has been hit with a third workplace lawsuit as her former chef claims the job's "intense" demands led to a pregnancy loss.
Iran's Pride Match is about visibility, not politics
Iran’s World Cup match against Egypt has become a test not only of FIFA’s approach to inclusion but also of whether LGBTQ+ Iranians can claim visibility on one of the world’s biggest sporting stages.
Trump Administration Shut Down Climate Website, Former NOAA Employees Have Just Brought It Back
In June 2025, Climate.gov was shut down by an executive order that implied it did not meet the current administration's standards. Climate scientists have just brought the data back.
New iPhone Ultra report has new pricing and release timing info
Apple’s highly anticipated foldable iPhone is launching this fall, but a new report today claims you might have to wait...
Starlink veterans launch startup to broaden megaconstellation ownership
Former SpaceX engineers who helped build and scale Starlink have launched a startup aiming to deliver megaconstellations for governments and companies seeking more control over space-based infrastructure.
JD Vance says Nixon’s Watergate scandal would be ‘12-hour news story’ today
Vice-president declares admiration for 37th president and claims Nixon and Trump targeted by ‘deep state’ forces
JD Vance claims Diddy is 'not a Christian' after federal conviction
Sean "Diddy" Combs might have scored a reference in Vice President JD Vance's new book, but the politician is not eager to associate himself with the imprisoned music mogul.
FEMA official who claimed he teleported to Waffle House ousted from agency, sources say
A top FEMA official who had drawn scrutiny for bizarre past remarks — including claiming he teleported to a Waffle House — has been pushed out of the agency, four sources tell CNN.
Valve Deletes 4K 60FPS Claim From Steam Page After Reviews
Some have struggled to hit consistently high framerates on the new hardware
Valve Quietly Walks Back Steam Machine 4K 60 FPS Performance Claims
Valve's Steam Machine has earned more than its fair share of skeptics, thanks to performance claims and more recently its unfortunate pricing. More recently, though, Valve has seemingly taken some of this criticism to heart and silently changed some of those performance claims on the Steam Machine p...
Making Our Own Luck
We are cross-posting a piece that former NIH official Kris Willis wrote for Macroscience. Kris is now the President and Founder of the Woodley Park Institute, for which I’m a board member. Picking winners or hedging bets? Federal science agencies have long wrestled with the question of how to ensure their billions of dollars of grants and contracts result in maximum benefits for Americans. On the surface, it might seem that a goal-oriented, interventionist style of management would be the best policy: prioritize our most pressing problems and distribute funding accordingly.This top-down strategy creates a unique hazard, though: bad choices can send resources in the wrong direction, resulting in slow progress that impedes the delivery of tangible benefits to citizens. Moreover, if decision makers pursue an applied advance when the underlying scientific principles remain poorly understood, they risk costly failures and a loss of support for the research enterprise at large. Examples include Nixon’s 1971 War on Cancer, undertaken on the premise that a cure could be achieved in less than a decade, the drive to build an operational commercial fusion plant by the mid-1990s, and the National Plan to Address Alzheimer’s Disease, which failed to produce the effective treatments and prevention strategies promised by 2025. The contrasting laissez-faire approach is to hedge your bets. If the path to an advance is impossible to predict, then the wisest choice might be to distribute funding to as widely as possible. The main risk of this strategy is that spreading funding thinly may limit the resources available to the most promising research, resulting in the same negative outcomes as the interventionist approach: limited support for the most promising topics, slow progress, and delayed returns. In reality, at science agencies like the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health, program managers navigate between these two extremes, setting some funds aside to target high-priority areas and using the rest to cover the widest possible range of meritorious proposals. This middle path seems like the most rational way to proceed, but it still requires making choices. How much should be set aside for high priority topics? What should those topics be? How should we define merit? Expert opinion can provide a helpful guide, but leading experts can have remarkably different opinions about what matters and what should be prioritized. Moreover, experts and administrators alike can be risk averse, giving an edge to high-profile, well-established concepts. What’s really needed is a data-driven framework to help guide decision-making, one that doesn’t simply repackage prestige or incumbency. Recognizing breakthroughs years in advance Many breakthroughs fail to attract funding or recognition at the earliest stages of development. Katalin Karikó, for example, spent years struggling to win grants for work on mRNA that would eventually win her and Drew Weissman a Nobel Prize. Similar stories can be told about Jim Allison’s groundbreaking studies leading to the development of cancer immunotherapy, Stan Pruisner’s demonstration that prions can self-replicate without DNA, or Robin Warren and Barry Marshall’s proof that Helicobacter pylori, not stress, causes ulcers. Yet at some point, the scientific community recognizes and responds to transformative breakthroughs like these. How does that change happen? And what if science funders could identify the areas that are on the cusp of a breakthrough? Those questions led my collaborators and me to study how scientists responded to past breakthroughs. Based on patterns in that data, we developed a means of predicting future breakthroughs, using biomedicine as a proof of concept. It’s worth taking a moment to describe how our approach works. Briefly, our prediction process begins by grouping the 18 million or so peer-reviewed papers in PubMed, the authoritative database of biomedical research, into roughly 50,000 unique topics. A small subset of these topics are so widely acclaimed as breakthroughs that they have been recognized with a major prize like a Nobel or a Lasker Award. We theorized that studying the development of these outliers over time, especially before they gained acclaim, was the key to identifying future instances of them. After defining topics, we chose 21 representative breakthroughs and asked what they looked like before they won prestigious prizes. To answer that question, we re-ran our topic-mapping algorithm repeatedly, winding back the clock one year each time, stringing together the years to follow the progress of each field as it grew and advanced. We found that in each case, the years leading up to a discovery followed a pattern: a burst of papers on a new, rapidly evolving topic, many of which quickly became influential. These characteristics—the percent of papers that are new, the percentage of papers that are brought in from other topics, and the influence of each individual paper—can all be measured separately for any given topic. Together, they act as a predictive signal that is detectable an average of five years before a transformative discovery is made, and up to thirty years before the discovery receives a major prize. Scanning the current research landscape for topics that display this signal allows us to predict what work will likely produce a future breakthrough. Each year we analyzed includes four or five signals, a number that appears to have remained constant across a twenty year time frame. In their classic work on the sociology of science, Bruno Latour and Steve Woolgar established that the desire to participate in a major discovery is an important motivator for scientists as they consider whether they should take up (or abandon) a research problem. Although further work is needed, the simplest explanation for our results is that this behavior is widespread enough to detect at scale. A foundational advance, or something like it, draws the attention of scientists and causes them to change the direction of their research. They vote with their feet, staking their own reputation and careers by publishing on and citing the new idea. That upswell of interest is the foundation of our breakthrough signal. What kind of research does our model identify as a breakthrough? After building a model based on the patterns in our 21 preselected breakthroughs, we tested it by identifying all early signals of discovery from 1994 through 1997. Of the 18 signals we found in that time period, 17 can be traced forward in time to a breakthrough. Examples include super-resolution fluorescence microscopy (see the image above), the directed evolution of proteins and enzymes (Chemistry Nobel, 2018), and sequencing the human genome (National Medal of Science, 2008). The discovery of the role of leptin signaling in obesity is a particularly interesting case study. Around 1950, scientists noticed the existence of a type of lab mouse that suffered from a unique inherited form of obesity. When given the freedom to choose their own diet, these mice ate more than normal and preferred food that was high in fat. Researchers had few clues as to why the animals overate; early experiments pointed to the existence of a soluble ob factor found circulating in the bloodstream that regulated appetite, but its identity was unknown. In 1994, Jeffrey Friedman and colleagues identified and sequenced the ob gene, noting that the protein it encoded appeared to fit the profile of a circulating factor. A year later, a trio of high-profile publications demonstrated that ob was a hormone that regulated body weight and fat deposition by regulating appetite. One of these was co-authored by Friedman, who christened it leptin from the ancient Greek word for thin. Using our model, the data from 1996 make it clear this advance would become a breakthrough. Scientists had flocked to study the biology of the new hormone, generating the flurry of new papers and citations required to produce a signal. One of these demonstrated that serum leptin concentrations reflected the amount of adipose tissue in the human body, providing clinical validation of the earlier mouse studies. Before the identification of leptin, scientists were unable to point to a specific molecule that controlled appetite and adiposity, so that it was impossible to rule out non-physiological causes of obesity; its characterization fundamentally changed our concept of weight gain. In 2010, Friedman and fellow pioneer Douglas Coleman were awarded a Lasker for the discovery. Our work also identifies breakthroughs in clinical practice and behavioral and social sciences, even though these areas are less likely to draw the attention of major prize committees. One example that falls into this category is the introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair, a minimally invasive surgical procedure for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm, a leading cause of death among Americans over the age of 65. Relative to the previous standard of care, it reduces in-hospital mortality by almost four-fold. In 2017, Timothy Chuter received the American College of Surgeons’ prestigious Jacobsen Innovation award for his multiple refinements to the technique. Another under-recognized breakthrough identified by our model is the development of standardized survey instruments to assess the quality of life for HIV+ patients. The antiretroviral cocktails introduced in the mid-1990s reduced AIDS mortality, but treatment came with serious side effects. The new evaluations showed that patients whose disease progressed had worse physical functioning than Americans with other chronic diseases, while those who were asymptomatic maintained a health-related quality of life on par with the overall US population. This evidence made it possible for patients and activists to argue that even in the absence of a total cure, and in spite of the side effects, alleviation of symptoms was a worthwhile priority for clinicians. My colleagues and I have failed to identify any significant recognition for the physicians and health policy experts who pioneered this advance, although in 2016, researchers called for the World Health Organization to set targets for good health-related quality of life as part of its framework to end the AIDS pandemic. From forecasting to funding How should science funders use our predictions? Any serious discussion of what we should do with this new capability needs to begin with an understanding of its limitations. We can’t (and shouldn’t) invest all of our resources in the small number of topics predicted to produce breakthroughs. Innovative new fields are born from existing ones; they rarely arise de novo. If funders don’t maintain a diverse portfolio, the breakthroughs of tomorrow will have no antecedents. Think of this as eating the seed corn, or killing the goose that lays the golden egg. There are also multiple goals of funding beyond basic scientific discovery, including translating discoveries into clinical practice, developing new technologies, supporting economic development, and training new scientists. The investments needed to accomplish these goals are likely different from those required to support emerging breakthroughs. Finally, we must be aware that we may not capture every instance of a breakthrough. The concept is fuzzy, and not every significant discovery is recognized with a major award. Further, breakthroughs are rare, meaning that our dataset is, by necessity, small. This makes formal estimates of accuracy challenging. Although our overall success rate appears to be high, any one signal may turn out to be a false positive. We found one apparent example: the development of the third generation COX-2 inhibitors, Vioxx and Celebrex, which were much celebrated in the early 2000s as effective but non-addictive pain relievers, meets all the algorithmic criteria of a breakthrough. Five years after it received FDA approval, researchers demonstrated that Vioxx was associated with serious cardiovascular complications, and the manufacturer voluntarily pulled the drug from the market. Celebrex remains available, although like other NSAIDs, it carries an FDA warning for increased cardiovascular risk. Decision makers who were overly focused on the breakthrough potential of this research might have wasted substantial resources nurturing an area that ultimately proved to be a failure—but so would those who relied on expert opinion at the time. That said, the potential benefits of funding the next mRNA vaccine or cancer immunotherapy years earlier than we might have are large. When we can’t assume the outcome of an action, it’s worth conducting an experiment. Can targeted support for areas that are poised to produce a breakthrough increase the return on scientific investment without cannibalizing future advances? With the necessary administrative infrastructure in place, conducting this experiment would be straightforward. First, identify all the breakthrough signals between 2018 and 2023, select half at random, and commit to a decade of investment. For biomedicine, a six year window should yield about 30 topics with the potential to produce a breakthrough. Providing strong support to half of these might be accomplished for $300 million a year. That’s roughly half of the recent annual budget of the NIH Common Fund or around 20% of the fiscal year 2025 budget for ARPA-H. After five years, then again at ten, compare to see which group — the one that was actively managed, or the control — produced more breakthroughs, and on what timescale. Although we used biomedicine as an example, the same experiment could just as well be run for physics, materials science, or any other discipline. Any attempt to undertake such an experiment should keep three points top of mind. First, we can predict the topic of future breakthroughs, but the people and vision for how to move the work forward are still important. In practice, this means success requires active program managers with the expertise to develop the science and the authority to do so, including by recruiting investigators. Second, we would be wise to learn from the failures of past attempts to fund transformative research. High among these are funding modestly repackaged work, confusing the genuinely novel with the merely unfamiliar, and relying too much on incumbent investigators. All of these risks can be mitigated by thoroughly and intelligently integrating high quality data into portfolio management. Finally, we need to have patience. Even with strong funding support, producing a breakthrough takes time. If supporting breakthroughs is the best way to nurture the birth of new fields, we also need to accurately describe and properly manage the other two stages, so that we invest wisely throughout the productive lifetime of ideas and divest once they reach the point of diminishing returns. We would benefit from more study of all of these phases, especially the transition from one to another. More research could answer questions like: When does a breakthrough become an established field? How do the availability of funding, the size and characteristics of the available workforce, and the accumulation of evidence that disagrees with prevailing models affect a field’s decline? Exactly how do old ideas give birth to new ones, and can we speed up the process? The more we understand about the dynamics of scientific progress, the better we can maximize the odds that our curiosity leads to results. I’d call that finding a way to make our own luck.
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