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Ex-Foursquare Founder Takes On The $5 Trillion Small Business Exit Crisis
Iconic is using AI to help Main Street business owners sell smarter as $5 trillion in small business value prepares to change hands over the next decade.
Oil falls as investors focus on potential Iran-US talks in Doha
Oil prices dropped on Tuesday, with investors eyeing the outcome of potential U.S.-Iran talks in Doha amid weekend missile fire from both sides that tested an interim ceasefire to end the four-month-old war.
Blackhawks Extend Qualifying Offers To Bedard & Three Other RFAs
Ahead of Monday’s 4:00 p.m. (CT) deadline, the Chicago Blackhawks issued qualifying offers to four of their six pending restricted […] The post Blackhawks Extend Qualifying Offers To Bedard & Three Other RFAs appeared first on Chicago Hockey Now.
New York Yankees’ Jazz Chisholm Jr. Exits Game Against Tigers
The New York Yankees have been struggling in recent games, and their ballclub is continuing to spiral. In the fourth inning, Jazz Chisholm Jr. collided with Jasson Domínguez, ultimately knocking Chisholm to the ground. Status alert: Jazz Chisholm Jr. leaves game Monday.pic.twitter.com/5XyTh98wIX — Underdog MLB (@UnderdogMLB) June 30, 2026 Chisholm exited the game following the […] The post New York Yankees’ Jazz Chisholm Jr. Exits Game Against Tigers appeared first on HEAVY.
After mysterious four-month absence, GOP congressman plans grand return
One day before Republican Rep. Tom Kean Jr. planned to return to Washington, the long-missing congressman sat on the steps of his tidy Tudor-style home in North Jersey, sifting through mail beside his wife.
Netflix and Superheroes Are Having a Rough Stretch on Streaming....
(Welcome to my weekly streaming ratings report, the single best guide to what’s popular in streaming TV and what isn’t. I’m the Entertainment Strategy Guy, a former streaming executive who now analyzes business strategy in the entertainment industry. If you were forwarded this email, please subscribe to get these insights each week.) I have a quick prediction before we start today’s article: You might see this data in future news articles. Not my specific charts or analysis, but the core trend I’ve been monitoring—Netflix is having a lackluster Q2—will become inescapable. Often, folks want to know “What does the data say?” Well, that’s what it says. I haven’t seen this analysis hit the trades really yet, but I have a feeling some other outlets are going to start making this case soon. Remember, you read it here first. You probably have read about the problems facing superhero films at the box office this weekend. Well, this week, I explore whether superheroes are dying on TV as well! And the data says: definitely maybe! We have a lot to cover in today’s Streaming Ratings Report, which covers the two weeks of 18-May and 25-May. Today, I’m just looking at TV, like Netflix’s disappointing Q2, superhero shows underwhelming, a few TV shows dropping off the charts, The Pitt finally ending its epic run on the viewership charts (and whether “view counts” change its status as one of the biggest shows of all time), all the flops, bombs and misses, and a whole lot more. Tomorrow, I’ve got a great rundown of the film side of things. Let’s dive right in! (Reminder: The streaming ratings report focuses on the U.S. market and compiles data from Nielsen’s weekly top ten viewership ranks, Luminate’s Top Ten Data, Showlabs, TV Time trend data, Samba TV household viewership, company datecdotes, Netflix hours viewed data, Google Trends, and IMDb to determine the most popular content. While most data points are current, Nielsen’s data covers the weeks of May 18th to May 31st, 2026. You can find a link to my terminology here.) Subscribe Television - Netflix’s Q2 Slump Continues Having analyzed streaming ratings for going on half a decade, I have learned to trust my gut, but I’m always relieved when I can find actual data to back it up. For example, after a string of very popular shows like Stranger Things, Bridgerton, The Lincoln Lawyer and The Night Agent came out, week after week, in January and February, my gut wondered if Netflix had enough new and returning TV shows to sustain them throughout the year. Since then, Netflix’s post-March slate of shows has not impressed me. This week seemed to feature a potential new hit, but then, like a classic Duffer Bros. TV show, there was a twist. I speak of The Boroughs, Netflix’s latest (and last) Duffer Bros. produced show. The pitch is “Stranger Things with older actors”. And it topped the Nielsen charts: With just two weeks of viewership, The Boroughs would have been a top 25 debut show last year: But here’s the twist: Netflix has already cancelled The Boroughs! What happened? Likely a few things. First, the show didn’t do as well globally as it did in the US. As What’s on Netflix showed, it lagged behind several other shows that got cancelled. Second, its completion rate was likely low; after an initial burst of interest, it quickly dropped off on the Samba TV and Luminate charts. Third, the Duffer Bros. left Netflix for Paramount, and that may have factored into Netflix’s decision here. (Though I tend to believe that if a show is doing well, Netflix would have kept greenlighting seasons.) Still, just because I can explain why Netflix may have cancelled this show doesn’t mean I’m justifying it. In particular, as I’ve noted before, Netflix is losing a lot of their bigger shows as they reach their natural ends, and they need to replace those shows. This show had the hallmarks of a big new genre show, and it’s their biggest hit of the last few months (in the US at least), but now it’s done. Netflix’s other show this week—The Four Seasons, the second season of the “hit” show from last year—definitely disappointed. Its sophomore season had about half the viewership of the first, only 12.7 million hours. It also only had a two week run on Samba TV, and its numbers were all down on Luminate too. In other words, even with two successes, the Q2 slump for Netflix looks real: I could add to the list of disappointments: Both Lord of the Files and Man on Fire had short runs on the Nielsen charts. Running Point’s sophomore season also opened to about half its viewership, similar to The Four Seasons. A Good Girl’s Guide to Murder’s second season—see below—didn’t even make any of the three viewership charts I track, unlike the first season. Netflix is absolutely having a dismal second three months of 2026. If this Nielsen data is any indication, and I think it is, I think this will show up in Netflix’s engagement report, and maybe even their financial outcomes. And the rest of June doesn’t look much better. We have two hit shows coming back—Sweet Magnolias, one of their quietest big shows, and Avatar: The Last Airbender, a big hit for them in 2024—but the other big swings are limited series crime thrillers i.e. no future season potential. Like I said above, sometimes when I uncover a juicy nugget like this, other outlets end up writing very similar articles mimicking the data without credit. We’ll see if that happens this time! Share Television - The State of Superhero Shows on Streaming When I first heard the pitch for Spider-Noir—a Sony TV show on Prime Video that binge-released eight episodes first on MGM+ then on Prime Video two days later—I had my doubts. It’s a live-action Spider-Man show set in the 1930s, starring Nicholas Cage, based on a cameo of a character in Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse. No, seriously, that’s the pitch. That could either go terrifically well or horribly wrong. Great because, Spider-Man. He’s the biggest superhero we have. I’ve seen tracking numbers that put the new _Spider-Man: Brand New Da_y as the blockbuster of the year and initial pre-sales back that up. And yet this Spider-Noir pitch feels very esoteric. (Also, the eight-episode binge release feels very “Amazon copying Netflix” again.) So what’s the data say? And what does this say about the future of superhero shows?
Warriors want LeBron and AD + the latest on Jaylen Brown + Kawhi Leonard + everything happening around the NBA with Dave DuFour
Free exhibition at the Science History Institute breaks down the flash, bang and boom of fireworks
"Flash! Bang! Boom! A History of Fireworks" at the Science History Institute is a blast. The free exhibition, in celebration of America's 250th, explores the history and science behind the spectacular Fourth of July tradition.
LeBron Reportedly Issues 'Ultimatum' To Warriors Amid Free Agency Rumors
LeBron James has reportedly issued an "ultimatum" to the Golden State Warriors amid the ongoing free agency rumors. The four-time NBA champion forward is set to hit free agency this summer. LeBron is most likely to return to the Lakers, though another team could be inching closer and closer. The ...
Faculty in Politics, Chemistry, Biology and English Appointed to Endowed Professorships | Pomona College in Claremont, California
Four faculty members have been awarded endowed professorship positions. The Pomona College Board of Trustees voted to support these appointments during their meeting in May.
South Coast Business & Technology Awards Gross Another Record Total for Area Scholarships
Credit: Courtesy Santa Barbara, CA — For the fourth consecutive year, the South Coast Business and Technology (SCBT) Awards ceremony has grossed
Patrick Mahomes Shares Emotional Four-Word Message After NFL Legend’s Heartbreaking Health News
Patrick Mahomes was among the NFL stars sending support after Chris Johnson announced his ALS diagnosis. The post Patrick Mahomes Shares Emotional Four-Word Message After NFL Legend’s Heartbreaking Health News appeared first on HEAVY.
Google Pixel Watch 5 seemingly surfaces with four variants and even more questions
As another year goes by since the last Pixel hardware launch, the Pixel Watch 5 is beginning to surface online...
The Entertainment Community Fund Reveals New Board of Trustees Appointments and Leadership Additions
The Entertainment Community Fund, formerly The Actors Fund, has revealed four new Board members, including one returning member, as well as new appointments to its Western Council and the Actors Fund Home Board of Trustees.
Patrick Mahomes Shares Emotional Message Following NFL Legend’s ALS Announcement
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes had four words after unfortunate announcement
Apple Acquires Award-Winning App 'Play'
In February, Apple notified the European Commission that it would be acquiring certain assets from and have the right to hire certain employees from Rabbit 3 Times, the company behind the award-winning app design tool Play. The notification was published on the European Commission's website this week, following a four-month waiting period. Play was a Mac and iPhone app that allowed designers to prototype iPhone app interfaces using Apple's SwiftUI frameworks, and then send them to Xcode.
Booming Business: Texas Secures Top Spot for Climate Fourth Year Running
Texas was recognized as the Best Business Climate in the nation for the fourth year in a row by Business Facilities magazine in their 2026 Annual Rankings Report.
Buffalo Sabres prospects to take center stage at Development Camp this week
The team will hold four days of camp for prospects at LECOM Harborcenter from June 29 to July 2.
Milei Taps Lifetime Politician to Lead His Cabinet After Scandal
Argentine President Javier Milei tapped a seasoned politician he once openly insulted on the campaign trail to become the fourth cabinet chief of his government plagued by corruption scandals.
Taylor Launches New Bachelor's Degree in AI & Machine Learning
Taylor University is launching a Bachelor of Science in Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning, building on four decades of AI expertise.
Nancy Pelosi to establish new democracy institute at UC-Berkeley
The former House speaker is preparing to leave Congress after a nearly four-decade decorated career.
AB Science reports completion of the step 3 of phase 1, evaluating the combination of AB8939 with venetoclax for the treatment of refractory or relapsed AML
PRESS RELEASE AB SCIENCE REPORTS COMPLETION OF THE STEP 3 OF PHASE 1, EVALUATING THE COMBINATION OF AB8939 WITH VENETOCLAX FOR THE TREATMENT OF REFRACTORY OR RELAPSED ACUTE MYELOID LEUKEMIA THE COMBINATION OF AB8939 WITH VENETOCLAX GENERATED A 67% OVERALL RESPONSE RATE (ORR) AND A 100% DISEASE CONTROL RATE (DCR), WITH NO DOSE-LIMITING TOXICITIES (DLT) OBSERVED, IN A POOR-PROGNOSIS POPULATION WITH ADVERSE GENETICS TREATED IN THE SECOND - TO FOURTH-LINE RELAPSED OR REFRACTORY SETTING Paris, June 2
White Sox Minor League Update: June 28, 2026
The Barons get the W and snap a losing streak thanks to a four-hit, five-RBI day from Caleb Bonemer
Seahawks Get Big Rashid Shaheed Update Ahead of Training Camp
The Seattle Seahawks have Jaxon Smith-Njigba as their WR1, but the question will be whether Rashid Shaheed can become a WR2. Last season, the Seahawks traded a fourth-round pick and a fifth-round pick in the 2026 NFL Draft to the New Orleans Saints for Shaheed. Moreover, Shaheed didn’t become a rental for the Seahawks, as […] The post Seahawks Get Big Rashid Shaheed Update Ahead of Training Camp appeared first on HEAVY.
I'm a stay-at-home mom of 2. My 4 side gigs help me pay off debt.
Lana Ng left her marketing job in 2023 to take care of her children. Now, her four side gigs help her not lose herself in motherhood.
NBC Announces Plans For Special 'Star-Spangled Sunday'
NBC is having a special "Star-Spangled Sunday" broadcast next weekend. Next Sunday is July 5, 2026. It's a very special Fourth of July weekend this year. It's America's 250th birthday. NBC and Peacock will be airing all 15 MLB games on Sunday, July 5. Two games - Mets-Braves and Padres-Dodgers - ...
Israeli strikes and shelling in Gaza kill at least 4 Palestinians, health workers say
Local health officials say the latest Israeli strikes across the Gaza Strip have killed at least four Palestinians, including a 13-year-old girl
Twenty-Four Named To CSC Academic All-District® Men’s At-Large Team
MADISON, Wis.--Twenty-four Wisconsin Intercollegiate Athletic Conference (WIAC) individuals have been named to the 2025-26 NCAA Division III Academic All-District® Men’s At-Large Team, selected by the College Sports Communicators
Huddersfield hold off Barrow fightback
Winless Barrow Raiders' late fightback is to no avail as Faye Barraclough's four tries help Huddersfield Giants to a 30-24 victory.
Galaxy Z's days are apparently numbered: Accessories point to a very unusual name for Samsung's iPhone Ultra competitor
At first, it was called the Galaxy Z Wide Fold or the Galaxy Z Fold 8 Wide, then—according to generally reliable sources—simply the Galaxy Z Fold8. Now a fourth name has surfaced for the compact and wider iPhone Ultra alternative, that Samsung will unveil on July 22 alongside the updated Galaxy Z Fold 8 Ultra. However, as authentic as these images seem to be, there are doubts.
Where the ACC landed in Athlon Sports' conference rankings
Athlon Sports ranked the ACC fourth among FBS conferences entering the 2026 college football season.
Lyles to take charge of Ultimate Championship entertainment
Noah Lyles has been announced as an Ultimate Star for the World Athletics Ultimate Championship, taking place from September 11-13 in Budapest, Hungary.Lyles, the dominant US sprinter who has won consecutive 200m golds at the past four World Championships, is locked in to compete at the inaugural edition of the new global championship. Lyles has earned automatic qualification into both the 100m and 200m by virtue of his podium-topping performances in those disciplines at the Paris 2024 Olympic Games and the World Athletics Championships Tokyo 25, respectively.
Famitsu review scores - June 28, 2026 - Star Fox for Nintendo Switch 2 and more
The latest Famitsu review scores for the week of June 28, 2026 are as follows: Star Fox – 8/9/9/8 The Last Salvage Squad – 8/7/8/7 Mousebusters – 7/8/8/6 Note that for each review, four editors gave out scores. The final total in the Famitsu review is there for out of a total of 40 points. For previous Famitsu scores, check...
Career coach recommends 4-hour burnout-proof job application routine
A career coach advises job seekers against spending all day applying to jobs. She says a four-hour routine is burnout-proof and more effective.
A Guy In Sweden Built An Inline-16 Out Of Volvo Engines And It Sounds Awesome
The 8.1-liter inline-16 engine is not connected to a car, but is made from four 2.0-liter Volvo engines joined together in a line.
Four things to know from Neshoba County Fair political speaking
Here are some of the highlights from the political speeches at the Neshoba County Fair and developments Mississippians can expect in the coming months.
Our picks for the best things to do in Cincinnati this week, June 29-July 5
If you're wanting to see some fireworks this week, we've got you covered. Find an event in your community to celebrate Independence Day.
Padres outmatched by Dodgers with nine run inning
SAN DIEGO - Just when things started to look like the San Diego Padres found a resurgence after winning four in-a-row against two of the best teams in league, they run into a mack truck-like force called the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Tony Brown, trailblazing journalist, TV talk show, dies at 93
"Tony Brown’s Journal," which ran on PBS for nearly four decades, provided a national platform for frank discussions on race, politics, and culture.
Standing Committee recommends adoption of four new business items, discusses relationship of the Church of the Brethren and Eder Financial
The Standing Committee of district delegates to the Church of the Brethren Annual Conference held meetings from Thursday evening, June 25, through Saturday afternoon, June 27, in Fort Wayne, Ind. Annual Conference moderator Don Fitzkee presided, assisted by moderator-elect Dennis Beckner and Conference secretary David Shumate.
Here's How Much A 2022 Cadillac CT4-V Blackwing Has Depreciated In 4 Years
Starting at $60,390 in 2022, the Cadillac CT4-V Blackwing did a solid job at fighting depreciation over the last four years, now trading in the low $50,000s.
Laurel: Happy Fourth of July!
In Brian Nelson's Laurel cartoon, our girl enjoys a particular show during a Fourth of July fireworks celebration in Worcester.
Four participants join Coalition for Support of Ukrainian Science at URC 2026
Four participants—Estonia, Switzerland, the Swiss National Science Foundation, and the SaveScienceUA initiative—joined the International Coalition to Support Science, Research, and Innovation in Ukraine during the URC-2026 Conference in Gdańsk. — Ukrinform.
Bruins draft Russian forward with 104th overall pick
The Bruins have selected multiple Russians in a draft for the first time in almost 25 years following their fourth-round selection Saturday.
Deals: Prime Day shopping is over, here are the best Galaxy S26 and Pixel 10 series deals
The four-day shopping bonanza ended on Friday - now we're back to the regular, no-subscription-required deals. The four days of Amazon Prime Day shopping...
Letters to Sports: Is Austin Reaves worth the $185-million deal?
L.A. Times readers weigh in on the re-signing of Lakers guard Austin Reaves, as well as the Dodgers' hits and misses.
City of Covington awards final round of fiscal year 2026 Small Business Incentive program funding
The City of Covington continues its commitment to supporting entrepreneurs, revitalizing commercial corridors, and strengthening neighborhood business districts through the Covington Small Business Incentive Program. The Covington Board of Commissioners has approved the fourth and final round of Fiscal Year 2026 Small Business Incentive Program funding, awarding $28,000 to support four projects across the city....
The Science Behind Storms: Four ingredients that make thunderstorms
Here's Mother Nature's shopping lift to making storms form.
Ohio State Buckeyes projected to land elite offensive lineman
Ohio State sits on the cusp of another top-5 recruiting class, and the Buckeyes could be receiving even more good news this weekend. Four-star Jackson (Miss.) offensive lineman Caden Moss is set to commit Friday night, and the Buckeyes are surging late as the favorite to land him. Over the past 24 hours, Rivals national […]
Pete Buttigieg was briefly separated from his children after police say he was target of false report
Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg was the target of an anonymous report that police determined was false and that he says forced him to spend a night away from his four-year-old twins.
Four bad habits tournament golf exposed within my game
What one writer learned from his second tournament round of the year.
Taylor Launches New Bachelor's Degree in AI and Machine Learning
Taylor University is launching a Bachelor of Science in Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning, building on four decades of AI expertise.
Introducing: Breguet Celebrates the 225th Anniversary of the Tourbillon with Four New Releases, And the Return of a Collector Favorite (Live Pics)
A revived and revised version of the Roth-designed caliber 558.1 movement (significantly improved) headlines four watches to celebrate the patent date of one of Abraham-Louis Breguet's most notable achievements.
Real Madrid’s summer spending spree creates unexpected Champions League problem
Real Madrid have been one of the busiest clubs in the transfer market, but their impressive recruitment spree may have created a technical issue.Notably, Jose Mourinho has already welcomed four new si...
CRAWFORD | Kenny Klein, beloved longtime Louisville sports information director, dies at 66
Klein's career spanned nearly four decades and helped shape the public face of Cardinals athletics through some of its greatest triumphs and most difficult crises.
Shohei Ohtani Earns Three Nominations for 2026 ESPYS
Shohei Ohtani of the Los Angeles Dodgers has redefined what a two-way player can look like in the modern era of baseball. Ohtani is coming off a 2025 season in which he won his fourth MVP and second straight World Series championship. On Thursday, ESPN announced the nominations for the 2026 ESPYS awards.
iHeart-broken: Listeners react to mass layoffs at local sports radio station
iHeart lays off radio hosts at three of its four stations in Des Moines.
Prosperity Council’s Report Challenges Kotek to Signal That Oregon Is Open for Business
The 15-member panel of business and labor leaders proposed four modest tax code changes, replacing the Climate Protection Program, and some less controversial reforms.
Matt Rhule hosts youth football camp in Omaha through FlexWork Sports
Matt Rhule and four Nebraska football players made the trek to Omaha Thursday.
FEMA official who claimed he teleported to Waffle House ousted from agency, sources say
A top FEMA official who had drawn scrutiny for bizarre past remarks — including claiming he teleported to a Waffle House — has been pushed out of the agency, four sources tell CNN.
Business Council deliberations continue with four bill drafts
Lawmakers on the Joint Appropriations Committee spent another day diving through the Wyoming Business Council’s dealings. This time, they also reviewed draft bills that would influence how the council operates.
Making Our Own Luck
We are cross-posting a piece that former NIH official Kris Willis wrote for Macroscience. Kris is now the President and Founder of the Woodley Park Institute, for which I’m a board member. Picking winners or hedging bets? Federal science agencies have long wrestled with the question of how to ensure their billions of dollars of grants and contracts result in maximum benefits for Americans. On the surface, it might seem that a goal-oriented, interventionist style of management would be the best policy: prioritize our most pressing problems and distribute funding accordingly.This top-down strategy creates a unique hazard, though: bad choices can send resources in the wrong direction, resulting in slow progress that impedes the delivery of tangible benefits to citizens. Moreover, if decision makers pursue an applied advance when the underlying scientific principles remain poorly understood, they risk costly failures and a loss of support for the research enterprise at large. Examples include Nixon’s 1971 War on Cancer, undertaken on the premise that a cure could be achieved in less than a decade, the drive to build an operational commercial fusion plant by the mid-1990s, and the National Plan to Address Alzheimer’s Disease, which failed to produce the effective treatments and prevention strategies promised by 2025. The contrasting laissez-faire approach is to hedge your bets. If the path to an advance is impossible to predict, then the wisest choice might be to distribute funding to as widely as possible. The main risk of this strategy is that spreading funding thinly may limit the resources available to the most promising research, resulting in the same negative outcomes as the interventionist approach: limited support for the most promising topics, slow progress, and delayed returns. In reality, at science agencies like the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health, program managers navigate between these two extremes, setting some funds aside to target high-priority areas and using the rest to cover the widest possible range of meritorious proposals. This middle path seems like the most rational way to proceed, but it still requires making choices. How much should be set aside for high priority topics? What should those topics be? How should we define merit? Expert opinion can provide a helpful guide, but leading experts can have remarkably different opinions about what matters and what should be prioritized. Moreover, experts and administrators alike can be risk averse, giving an edge to high-profile, well-established concepts. What’s really needed is a data-driven framework to help guide decision-making, one that doesn’t simply repackage prestige or incumbency. Recognizing breakthroughs years in advance Many breakthroughs fail to attract funding or recognition at the earliest stages of development. Katalin Karikó, for example, spent years struggling to win grants for work on mRNA that would eventually win her and Drew Weissman a Nobel Prize. Similar stories can be told about Jim Allison’s groundbreaking studies leading to the development of cancer immunotherapy, Stan Pruisner’s demonstration that prions can self-replicate without DNA, or Robin Warren and Barry Marshall’s proof that Helicobacter pylori, not stress, causes ulcers. Yet at some point, the scientific community recognizes and responds to transformative breakthroughs like these. How does that change happen? And what if science funders could identify the areas that are on the cusp of a breakthrough? Those questions led my collaborators and me to study how scientists responded to past breakthroughs. Based on patterns in that data, we developed a means of predicting future breakthroughs, using biomedicine as a proof of concept. It’s worth taking a moment to describe how our approach works. Briefly, our prediction process begins by grouping the 18 million or so peer-reviewed papers in PubMed, the authoritative database of biomedical research, into roughly 50,000 unique topics. A small subset of these topics are so widely acclaimed as breakthroughs that they have been recognized with a major prize like a Nobel or a Lasker Award. We theorized that studying the development of these outliers over time, especially before they gained acclaim, was the key to identifying future instances of them. After defining topics, we chose 21 representative breakthroughs and asked what they looked like before they won prestigious prizes. To answer that question, we re-ran our topic-mapping algorithm repeatedly, winding back the clock one year each time, stringing together the years to follow the progress of each field as it grew and advanced. We found that in each case, the years leading up to a discovery followed a pattern: a burst of papers on a new, rapidly evolving topic, many of which quickly became influential. These characteristics—the percent of papers that are new, the percentage of papers that are brought in from other topics, and the influence of each individual paper—can all be measured separately for any given topic. Together, they act as a predictive signal that is detectable an average of five years before a transformative discovery is made, and up to thirty years before the discovery receives a major prize. Scanning the current research landscape for topics that display this signal allows us to predict what work will likely produce a future breakthrough. Each year we analyzed includes four or five signals, a number that appears to have remained constant across a twenty year time frame. In their classic work on the sociology of science, Bruno Latour and Steve Woolgar established that the desire to participate in a major discovery is an important motivator for scientists as they consider whether they should take up (or abandon) a research problem. Although further work is needed, the simplest explanation for our results is that this behavior is widespread enough to detect at scale. A foundational advance, or something like it, draws the attention of scientists and causes them to change the direction of their research. They vote with their feet, staking their own reputation and careers by publishing on and citing the new idea. That upswell of interest is the foundation of our breakthrough signal. What kind of research does our model identify as a breakthrough? After building a model based on the patterns in our 21 preselected breakthroughs, we tested it by identifying all early signals of discovery from 1994 through 1997. Of the 18 signals we found in that time period, 17 can be traced forward in time to a breakthrough. Examples include super-resolution fluorescence microscopy (see the image above), the directed evolution of proteins and enzymes (Chemistry Nobel, 2018), and sequencing the human genome (National Medal of Science, 2008). The discovery of the role of leptin signaling in obesity is a particularly interesting case study. Around 1950, scientists noticed the existence of a type of lab mouse that suffered from a unique inherited form of obesity. When given the freedom to choose their own diet, these mice ate more than normal and preferred food that was high in fat. Researchers had few clues as to why the animals overate; early experiments pointed to the existence of a soluble ob factor found circulating in the bloodstream that regulated appetite, but its identity was unknown. In 1994, Jeffrey Friedman and colleagues identified and sequenced the ob gene, noting that the protein it encoded appeared to fit the profile of a circulating factor. A year later, a trio of high-profile publications demonstrated that ob was a hormone that regulated body weight and fat deposition by regulating appetite. One of these was co-authored by Friedman, who christened it leptin from the ancient Greek word for thin. Using our model, the data from 1996 make it clear this advance would become a breakthrough. Scientists had flocked to study the biology of the new hormone, generating the flurry of new papers and citations required to produce a signal. One of these demonstrated that serum leptin concentrations reflected the amount of adipose tissue in the human body, providing clinical validation of the earlier mouse studies. Before the identification of leptin, scientists were unable to point to a specific molecule that controlled appetite and adiposity, so that it was impossible to rule out non-physiological causes of obesity; its characterization fundamentally changed our concept of weight gain. In 2010, Friedman and fellow pioneer Douglas Coleman were awarded a Lasker for the discovery. Our work also identifies breakthroughs in clinical practice and behavioral and social sciences, even though these areas are less likely to draw the attention of major prize committees. One example that falls into this category is the introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair, a minimally invasive surgical procedure for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm, a leading cause of death among Americans over the age of 65. Relative to the previous standard of care, it reduces in-hospital mortality by almost four-fold. In 2017, Timothy Chuter received the American College of Surgeons’ prestigious Jacobsen Innovation award for his multiple refinements to the technique. Another under-recognized breakthrough identified by our model is the development of standardized survey instruments to assess the quality of life for HIV+ patients. The antiretroviral cocktails introduced in the mid-1990s reduced AIDS mortality, but treatment came with serious side effects. The new evaluations showed that patients whose disease progressed had worse physical functioning than Americans with other chronic diseases, while those who were asymptomatic maintained a health-related quality of life on par with the overall US population. This evidence made it possible for patients and activists to argue that even in the absence of a total cure, and in spite of the side effects, alleviation of symptoms was a worthwhile priority for clinicians. My colleagues and I have failed to identify any significant recognition for the physicians and health policy experts who pioneered this advance, although in 2016, researchers called for the World Health Organization to set targets for good health-related quality of life as part of its framework to end the AIDS pandemic. From forecasting to funding How should science funders use our predictions? Any serious discussion of what we should do with this new capability needs to begin with an understanding of its limitations. We can’t (and shouldn’t) invest all of our resources in the small number of topics predicted to produce breakthroughs. Innovative new fields are born from existing ones; they rarely arise de novo. If funders don’t maintain a diverse portfolio, the breakthroughs of tomorrow will have no antecedents. Think of this as eating the seed corn, or killing the goose that lays the golden egg. There are also multiple goals of funding beyond basic scientific discovery, including translating discoveries into clinical practice, developing new technologies, supporting economic development, and training new scientists. The investments needed to accomplish these goals are likely different from those required to support emerging breakthroughs. Finally, we must be aware that we may not capture every instance of a breakthrough. The concept is fuzzy, and not every significant discovery is recognized with a major award. Further, breakthroughs are rare, meaning that our dataset is, by necessity, small. This makes formal estimates of accuracy challenging. Although our overall success rate appears to be high, any one signal may turn out to be a false positive. We found one apparent example: the development of the third generation COX-2 inhibitors, Vioxx and Celebrex, which were much celebrated in the early 2000s as effective but non-addictive pain relievers, meets all the algorithmic criteria of a breakthrough. Five years after it received FDA approval, researchers demonstrated that Vioxx was associated with serious cardiovascular complications, and the manufacturer voluntarily pulled the drug from the market. Celebrex remains available, although like other NSAIDs, it carries an FDA warning for increased cardiovascular risk. Decision makers who were overly focused on the breakthrough potential of this research might have wasted substantial resources nurturing an area that ultimately proved to be a failure—but so would those who relied on expert opinion at the time. That said, the potential benefits of funding the next mRNA vaccine or cancer immunotherapy years earlier than we might have are large. When we can’t assume the outcome of an action, it’s worth conducting an experiment. Can targeted support for areas that are poised to produce a breakthrough increase the return on scientific investment without cannibalizing future advances? With the necessary administrative infrastructure in place, conducting this experiment would be straightforward. First, identify all the breakthrough signals between 2018 and 2023, select half at random, and commit to a decade of investment. For biomedicine, a six year window should yield about 30 topics with the potential to produce a breakthrough. Providing strong support to half of these might be accomplished for $300 million a year. That’s roughly half of the recent annual budget of the NIH Common Fund or around 20% of the fiscal year 2025 budget for ARPA-H. After five years, then again at ten, compare to see which group — the one that was actively managed, or the control — produced more breakthroughs, and on what timescale. Although we used biomedicine as an example, the same experiment could just as well be run for physics, materials science, or any other discipline. Any attempt to undertake such an experiment should keep three points top of mind. First, we can predict the topic of future breakthroughs, but the people and vision for how to move the work forward are still important. In practice, this means success requires active program managers with the expertise to develop the science and the authority to do so, including by recruiting investigators. Second, we would be wise to learn from the failures of past attempts to fund transformative research. High among these are funding modestly repackaged work, confusing the genuinely novel with the merely unfamiliar, and relying too much on incumbent investigators. All of these risks can be mitigated by thoroughly and intelligently integrating high quality data into portfolio management. Finally, we need to have patience. Even with strong funding support, producing a breakthrough takes time. If supporting breakthroughs is the best way to nurture the birth of new fields, we also need to accurately describe and properly manage the other two stages, so that we invest wisely throughout the productive lifetime of ideas and divest once they reach the point of diminishing returns. We would benefit from more study of all of these phases, especially the transition from one to another. More research could answer questions like: When does a breakthrough become an established field? How do the availability of funding, the size and characteristics of the available workforce, and the accumulation of evidence that disagrees with prevailing models affect a field’s decline? Exactly how do old ideas give birth to new ones, and can we speed up the process? The more we understand about the dynamics of scientific progress, the better we can maximize the odds that our curiosity leads to results. I’d call that finding a way to make our own luck.
Blue Jackets acquire Valeri Nichushkin from Avalanche: Sources
Nichushkin, 31, has four years left on his current deal and a 12-team no-trade list.
That's 'Entertainment!': Q and A with Jon King of Gang of Four
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19th Hole party zone brings entertainment, drinks, and live music to Wichita Open
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Entertainment this week: Paul Thorn, Hike for Hope and more
Friday, June 26 Annual Ian Casey Classic – Tahoe Donner Golf Course. Our most popular event of the year, a full field of 130+ golfers will team up in foursomes and hit the links to...
David P. O'Brien
About five years ago, David P. O'Brien had a comfortable position at Marsh & McLennan Cos., where he held the top post at the financial giant's Louisville, Ky., office. Despite the lofty rank, Mr. O'Brien found himself longing to be at a smaller company that had to work a little harder to land business. That desire led him away from Kentucky five years ago and to Cleveland, where he serves as executive vice president at business insurance agency Oswald Cos. "I left Marsh before it was en vogue," he said, referring to layoffs and defections at Marsh over the course of this year that followed accusations of bid rigging at the big firm. Above all, Mr. O'Brien, 38, wanted to work at a company that relied on its inventiveness, rather than its name, for business. He said he has found that at Oswald. "It causes you to be more creative, to be more resourceful," Mr. O'Brien said. For instance, an Oswald client seeking to do business internationally might be directed to the network of offices abroad run by competitors such as Marsh and Aon Risk Services Inc. "We're going to use whatever access into the market that makes the most sense for our clients," he said. Of course, using such a strategy can be dangerous for Oswald if its client decides to further a business relationship with one of the firms Oswald recommended. "That's the obvious question and why it's nontraditional," he said. "I think if we're good, and if we're bringing value to the client, then there's no risk. I'm not threatened by it." Imaginative business solutions of that type made his career move to Oswald from Marsh worthwhile. "It's very much a challenge," he said. "It helps you keep your edge. I'm all for the competition." John Jacunski, currently vice president and corporate controller at York, Pa., paper company PH Gladfelter Co., met Mr. O'Brien four years ago when Mr. Jacunski was at WCI Steel Inc. in Warren. So impressed was he with Mr. O'Brien's work for WCI that Mr. Jacunski has retained the Oswald executive at PH Gladfelter. "He's a young guy for the position he has, but he's done a great job for us," Mr. Jacunski said. Among his roles at Oswald, Mr. O'Brien leads the firm's client retention efforts and also serves as director of its property and casualty group. "You don't have the same human resources," he said of the job jump to Oswald. "You don't have, obviously, the safety net a big company has." But sometimes, it can be difficult to ascertain individual contributions when working at a big company. "I wanted to be able to see the end results of my work and my efforts," Mr. O'Brien said.
The Fourth Expedition
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Fourth Annual Small Business Expo kicks off today in Downtown Memphis
The Fourth Annual Small Business Expo kicks off Thursday.
Red Sox begin 4-game series at home against the Yankees
The Boston Red Sox open a four-game series at home against the New York Yankees on Thursday.
Is Yankees manager Aaron Boone’s fan survey grade fair?
Boone’s team begins a four-game set in Boston tonight.
19 fours, 6 sixes! Vaibhav Sooryavanshi's younger brother Ashirvad Sooryavanshi hits blistering century
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Cunard Unveils 2027 Entertainment Offerings, Event Voyages
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Louisville doctor, nurse and nonprofit founder charged in federal health care fraud crackdown
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Factory Entertainment Unveils Four 2026 STAR TREK Convention Exclusives, Preorders Open Now
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After Jordan Kyrou trade, Blues are open for business — and positioned for a franchise-changing run
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Dunnellon to mark America 250 with fireworks, entertainment
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Gas prices, health, quality of life drive push for more Coloradans to trade four wheels for two, even if safety is a worry
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All politics is local politics
In today’s edition of The Tea, Spilled by Morning Joe: Joe on the results of yesterday’s primaries, the fourth anniversary of Roe v. Wade being overturned, and more.
‘Blatant discrimination’: WNBA’s decision to punish Caitlin Clark sparks outrage
The Indiana Fever’s Monday night win over the Phoenix Mercury got chippy in the fourth quarter, with Fever star Caitlin Clark and Mercury veteran DeWana Bonner getting into an altercation that led to technicals being assessed to multiple players on both teams. Clark was one of the players hit with a tech, her fifth of…
They poured fortunes into trying to join Congress
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UW lays off 13 in the Department of Health Systems and Population Health, just four days after graduation
UW lays off 13 in the Department of Health Systems and Population Health, just four days after graduation
4 OLED TVs With Deep Discounts During Amazon Prime Day 2026
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Butler County health officials confirm bat tests positive for rabies, marking 4th case in past month
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NCAA panel approves new eligibility rules giving Division I athletes 5 years to play 5 seasons
The Division I Cabinet unanimously approved the change from the longstanding tenet of college sports that gave athletes five years to complete four seasons of competition with their eligibility clock starting at the time of enrollment, regardless of age.
The American Project Has Never Been Perfect. It’s Still Worth Fighting For.
Every Fourth of July my family goes on an adventure and this year we are going to Niagara Falls. The iconic falls in all their power and scale feel like an important destination for my kids’ formative years. Reflecting on 250 years As I prepare for the trip to this famed American tourist desti
Four Years After The Fall Of Roe: Three Leaders Share The Impacts On Business, Philanthropy And Advocacy
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Abortion rights fight underscores key themes in Maine’s U.S. Senate race
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‘We’re witnessing the end of the America that made our lives possible’: author Eddie Glaude on US’s 250th birthday
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Meet the demons: four mythical creatures that inhabit science
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Grand Seiko Launches Four New References In The Updated Evolution 9 Hi-Beat Collection
✓ Grand Seiko introduces the updated Evolution 9 Hi-Beat collection ✓ Four new references with live photos! ✓ Read more here! ✓
Trump’s acting chief of national intelligence fires 6 political appointees, removes dozens of career officials, sources say
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State advances over four hundred projects in bid for Rural Health Transformation Program funding
The state received about 1800 letters of interest from organizations, and those chosen are advancing to the application phase, or are getting grants for project planning.
Sophie Cunningham Posts Cryptic Video After Heated Altercation vs. Mercury
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Urban League targets business growth with new Ascension-St. James training cohort
The Urban League of Louisiana is expanding its entrepreneurial development efforts in Ascension and St. James parishes through a new cohort of its Scale Up! Louisiana program, designed to help established small businesses grow and become more profitable. Wednesday is the last day to sign up for the summer 2026 cohort, which will run from […]
FedEx posts strong earnings results in last quarter with freight business
FedEx posted strong fiscal fourth quarter earnings on Tuesday in the company's last quarter that included the freight business before its spin-off.
4 charged in separate health care fraud cases in Michigan, AG announces
Four people are facing charges in separate health care fraud cases, the Michigan Attorney General’s Office announced on Tuesday.
Aspen Ideas: Health features four days of ‘big ideas’
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