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Curing U.S. Health Care, Part I
In 2008, much to their own surprise, leading Democrats unified around a program of major health care reform. Policy wonks had spent years developing the concepts behind what eventually became Obamacare; big Democratic victories in the 2006 midterms and the prospect of controlling both Congress and the presidency made it possible to imagine turning those ideas into reality. During the Democratic primary, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama advocated similar plans, based on those ideas, for expanding insurance coverage. And it happened! The Affordable Care Act was enacted in 2010. When it was fully implemented in 2014, millions of Americans got health insurance: Impressive as the raw numbers are, they don’t tell the whole story. Before the ACA, even upper-middle-class Americans often found it impossible to get health insurance if they had pre-existing medical conditions. Many Americans were trapped in jobs they wanted to leave but couldn’t for fear of losing their employment-based coverage. Meanwhile, dire predictions from the usual suspects about runaway costs proved wrong. In fact, overall U.S. medical spending has grown much more slowly since the ACA was enacted than before. But the U.S., alone among advanced nations, still falls far short of providing universal health care. As you can see from the chart above, 8 percent of the population was still uninsured in 2024, a number that is set to rise over the next two years as a result of Republican policies. True, many of the uninsured in 2024 were undocumented immigrants, who we don’t try to cover. But there are still a lot of uninsured. Moreover, a significant number of Americans who have health insurance are in fact underinsured. As a result, they are at risk of incurring devastating healthcare costs and are sometimes forced to forgo needed care. This number is set to rise sharply in the next two years as a result of Republican policies adopted under Donald Trump. And not only is the U.S. unique among advanced countries in its under-provision of health care coverage, it also incurs by far the world’s highest healthcare costs per capita. So now may well be a good time to get behind a new push for major health reform — an effort, if you like, to finish the job begun under Obama. Today’s primer is devoted to the economics of health reform. During his failed effort to repeal the Affordable Care Act, Donald Trump famously complained, “Nobody knew healthcare could be so complicated.” Actually, we did know — and it’s not that complicated. Health economists understand the principles very well. And because health policy varies greatly among advanced nations, we know a lot about what works and what doesn’t. This will be the first in a series about health reform. Beyond the paywall I’ll address the following: 1. Why markets can’t be trusted to deliver healthcare 2. Routes to universal healthcare 3. What works? In a follow-up post I’ll discuss the pros and cons of different approaches, and possible paths forward for the United States.
Can chickens really run around with their heads cut off?
There's lore about chickens surviving from seconds to months after their heads are chopped off, but what does the science say?
Surprising Discovery That AI Performs Subliminal Learning And Does So In Mysterious Ways
Newly published research suggests that AI can subliminally learn. This is exciting but also disconcerting. Evil AI could sneakily turn other AI. An AI Insider scoop.
Liverpool enter transfer race to sign 21-year-old colossus
Arne Slot has already admitted that change is on its way to Anfield next season. And, while most fans want the Dutchman to be sacked and replaced by Xabi Alonso, it doesn't feel like Fenway Sports Gro...
Think AI "knows" what it’s doing? Scientists say think again
Calling AI things like “smart” or saying it “knows” something might sound harmless, but it can quietly mislead people about what AI actually does. A new study shows that news writers are more careful than expected, rarely using strongly human-like language. When they do, it often falls on a spectrum—sometimes describing simple requirements, other times hinting at human traits.
Super Mario-kun manga may finally be ending after more then 30 years
Super Mario-kun has been a long-running manga in Japan having started in 1990, but it could finally be coming to an end soon. We’re hearing that the series has reached its final arc. The story seems to be wrapping up and fans believe that it won’t be long until it’s over. Outside of Japan, Super Mario-kun is a bit more...
Bayonetta creator explains what actually happened in Bayonetta 3's ending
The creator of Bayonetta argues that the inclusion of the multiverse didn't come out of nowhere and clarifies the ending of Bayonetta 3.
What is happening with the Google Assistant? [Video]
The Google Assistant is entering end-of-life, but what does that mean for those who have used it for so long? And what is next?
Slay the Spire 2 roadmap suggests we won't get matchmaking but does promise "whimsy"
It's been a little more than a month since Mega Crit's hugely anticipated sequel Slay the Spire 2 released in early acc…
What caffeine does to ants could change pest control
Caffeine doesn’t just perk up humans—it can sharpen ants’ minds too. Invasive Argentine ants given caffeinated sugar learned to find food much more efficiently, taking straighter paths and reducing travel time by up to 38%. They weren’t faster, just more focused, indicating improved learning. This unexpected effect could make pest control baits far more effective.
Daniel Jeremiah's 'hunch' on Giants could impact Commanders
Daniel Jeremiah doesn't think the Giants will pick Sonny Styles. That could be great news for the Commanders.
It doesn’t matter how much you sit — walking more could lower your risk of death and disease
Sitting all day might not be as damaging as once feared—if you’re willing to move more. A massive study tracking over 72,000 people found that simply increasing daily steps can significantly reduce the risk of death and heart disease, even for those who spend long hours sedentary. Hitting around 9,000–10,000 steps a day delivered the biggest benefits, cutting mortality risk by nearly 40% and cardiovascular disease by over 20%.
New Business: Gate City Casino plans massive expansion at Sheraton; Rooted on Main opens in Littleton
The casino growth along the Massachusetts border doesn’t seem to be ending with plans for Nashua’s Gate City Casino to move into the Sheraton hotel, which has long been known
Rumor: New Resident Evil Requiem music found in datamine, Mercenaries could be on the way
Fans have apparently found new music in Resident Evil Requiem's files via a datamine and the game could be getting a Mercenaries mode.
Federal judge dismisses DOJ lawsuit seeking personal details about Rhode Island voters
U.S. District Court Judge Mary McElroy sided with Rhode Island's top election officials and civil rights advocates, writing that federal law does not permit the U.S. Department of Justice “to conduct the kind of fishing expedition it seeks here.”
Use caution and keep safety in mind during storm cleanup, Wisconsin health officials warn
Flooding has ravaged parts of Northeast Wisconsin the past few days, while at least five tornadoes touched down in southern Wisconsin earlier this week.
Does your kid go nuts when you take away their screens? What to do next
Cutting your kids’ technology use sounds good — until the arguments begin. Dr. Michaeleen Doucleff walks parents through how they can achieve this “impossible” feat.
Does your kid go nuts when you take away their screens? What to do next
Cutting your kids’ technology use sounds good — until the arguments begin. Dr. Michaeleen Doucleff walks parents through how they can achieve this “impossible” feat.
Does Trump even have a political strategy?
Winning in politics means delivering on popular issues, and that is difficult for any president. Without a solid political strategy and discipline is nigh impossible.
MGB, CVS primary care partnership could inflate health care spending
The Massachusetts Health Policy Commission doesn’t have the authority to prevent the partnership from going through, but it can recommend conditions to address its concerns.
Rachel Reeves warns other budgets may be cut to lift defence spending
Chancellor says she is ‘working through a range of options’ to boost the armed forces but does not want to put up taxes
Protecting kids from deceptive and unsubstantiated health claims: the FTC’s case against TruHeight
Parents and kids (like all consumers) need clear, truthful information to make informed decisions — especially when those decisions affect their children’s health and physical safety. With that in mind, the FTC is working to protect kids and teens from deceptive health claims. Take the Agency’s recent case: the FTC charged Vanilla Chip LLC, which does business as TruHeight, with using unsubstantiated health claims and fake or incentivized reviews to market its supplements to kids, teenagers, and caregivers.
Nintendo starts up new "Spotlight Sale" for Switch 2 and Switch, multiple games at new low prices
Here are the full list of deals in the new Nintendo Spotlight Sale which has multiple games at new low prices for Switch 2 and Switch.
Colorado high school girls flag football quarterback commits to Nebraska
As the popularity of high school girls flag football continues, so does the groundbreaking moments in the sport and earlier this week, the first ever player to commit the a Division I, Power 4 program occurred. Mountain Vista (CO) Class of 2027 quarterback Ariana Akey via Instagram announced her commitment to Nebraska for women’s flag […]
Pragmata Nintendo Switch 2 tech analysis, including frame rate and resolution
Lots of technical details about Pragmata on Nintendo Switch 2, including frame rate, resolution, and more.
Why NASA’s Cheapest Missions Produce the Least Science
To say NASA has been undergoing some massive administrative changes lately is a huge understatement. One of the more concerning ones, according to a new paper at the 57th Lunar and Planetary Science Conference by Ari Koeppel and Casey Dreier of the Planetary Society, is the trend towards the Silicon Valley mindset of “move fast and break things” - which they argue doesn’t work very well when it comes to producing valuable science.
What does Israel want in Lebanon?
Despite diplomatic talks in Washington, ‘significant hurdles remain’ in dealing with the ‘distorted reality’ of Israel’s leaders
Street Fighter 6’s Alex Incest Patch Is Here And Does Nothing
Capcom is trying to make Alex’s backstory more vague so you forget he married his cousin sister
AI "nudify" apps are being offered to everyone on the Google Play Store
Offending apps were removed, but does more need to be done?
What is ‘Ozempic personality,’ and why does it make life feel ‘meh’?
Doctors and patients across social media are reporting a kind of emotional flattening while on GLP-1 drugs.
Yankees news: Rehab news on Gerrit Cole, Anthony Volpe
Yankees lay out Volpe’s rehab plan; Chivilli promoted; Will ‘Bombers’ bunt more often?
BBC Sport weekly quiz: How much money does the Masters winner get?
How much attention have you paid to what's happened in the world of sport over the past seven days?
Freshman quarterback Bowe Bentley embraces early learning curve at OU ahead of spring game
The jump from high school football to the Southeastern Conference doesn’t come quietly, and for freshman quarterback Bowe Bentley, that reality has set in quickly.
Game #17 GameThread: Jays @ Brewers
Game two of three in Milwaukee. I have such a dislike of Bud Selig that I don’t I could go to Milwaukee to watch a game. I know he doesn’t own the team anymore (and that he’s over 90 years old), but he worked very hard to kill off my Expos and was just an […]
Pillen doesn't believe government can fix mental health crisis, puts part of blame on social media
Nebraska Gov. Jim Pillen discussed the mental health crisis following the deadly Walmart incident.
Civic belonging in the social media era
Gen Z is politically aware online, but this doesn't always translate to real-world engagement or voting, leading to burnout and fear.
Protester yells 'Jesus Christ does not support genocide' at JD Vance
The moment came after an event host asked Vice President JD Vance about a spat between President Donald Trump and Pope Leo XIV.
A PvP Guide to Sustainability Week 2026
New event means new grinding opportunities for PvP! We got an all-new Pokemon to hunt down and a couple oldies-but-goodies to grind for as well. How do they look? Let’s see! A GOOD CURSE? ☠️ It doesn’t feel that long ago, but it’s been a year and half since GALARIAN CORSOLA arrived in Pokémon GO, and while the meta has changed […]
MSI accidentally announces GeForce RTX 5070 12GB Laptop GPU in new Crosshair 16 Max spec sheet
MSI GeForce RTX 5070 laptop with 12GB VRAM, GPU spec which does not officially exist MSI may have just added another piece to the GeForce RTX 5070 Laptop
Hearing aids can seem like a big step. This NYC Ballet principal dancer doesn’t regret taking it
Sara Mearns is one of the first dancers with the New York City Ballet to wear hearing aids during performances.
A new approach to brain health, one neuron at a time
Neuroscientist Paul Nuyujukian likens the brain to a stadium full of people. To eavesdrop on the crowd you could put a microphone in the middle of the stadium. But to understand the conversations you need to record individual people. He thinks about the brain the same way. To understand brain disease, he studies neurons—one at a time. And his insights are shedding light on a big global issue—stroke. The World Health Organization predicts one in four adults will have a stroke in their lifetime. Strokes can cause death, or lead to paralysis or speech problems. But there’s still a lot researchers don’t know about how the brain recovers from an event like a stroke. Nuyujukian directs a lab at Stanford University that studies how the brain controls movement, including after neurological events like stroke. We get into how he does this, and why he hopes his research could eventually help people who’ve been paralyzed. Email us your questions about the brain – or anything else to do with science at shortwave@npr.org. We may turn it into an episode in the future!Listen to every episode of Short Wave sponsor-free and support our work at NPR by signing up for Short Wave+ at plus.npr.org/shortwave.
Why Many Americans Are Turning to AI for Health Advice, According to Recent Polls
NEW YORK (AP) — When Tiffany Davis has a question about a symptom from the weight-loss injections she’s taking, she doesn’t call her doctor. She pulls out her phone and consults ChatGPT. “I’ll just basically let ChatGPT know my status, how I’m feeling,” said the 42-year-old in Mesquite, Texas. “I ...
Nintendo GameCube - Nintendo Classics 1.6.1 update out now
Nintendo GameCube - Nintendo Classics version 1.6.1 update has now been released, and here's a quick breakdown of what it does.
Opinion: Utah’s volatile inner-party politics
Turmoil in the Mideast and the nation’s economy are intensifying fissures between parties and within them. What does this mean for Utah politics?
Overwatch launches on Nintendo Switch 2 with performance issues, Blizzard confirms patch in the works
Overwatch just launched on Nintendo Switch 2 today, but things haven’t gone smoothly. Soon after release, players reported issues with the port – notably with performance. Blizzard promised that the new Nintendo Switch 2 version would run up to 60 frames per second. However, some fans thought that the Nintendo Switch 1 version was accidentally uploaded since the action felt...
Republicans’ big 2026 problem: An unhinged Trump who doesn’t seem to care about them
It’s almost as if President Donald Trump doesn’t care that what he’s doing could torpedo the GOP’s hopes in less than seven months — because Congress doesn’t matter much to his view of power.
Beef is making a comeback – does it fit into a healthy diet?
The protein craze is in full swing and beef consumption is on the rise, particularly in the US, where health agencies are promoting red meat as part of an optimum diet. So, how much beef should we really be eating, and how does it impact our well-being?
BlackRock sees opportunity for growth in private credit "shakeout"
There may be some private credit losers in the future, but doesn't plan to be one of them. On their Q1 analyst call, Fink and co explained why they will win.
What is World Quantum Day and why does it matter?
Scientists, educators, and technology leaders around the world are marking World Quantum Day on Tuesday.
UCF Materials Science Undergraduate Researcher Awarded DOE Internship at National Lab
Deneé Lichtenberg is advancing new methods for recovering rare earth metals — groundbreaking work she’ll continue at Los Alamos National Laboratory.
Rosalina and Samus have new Nintendo eShop cards, plus an eShop credit sale is live
New Rosalina and Samus Nintendo eShop cards have been revealed, and a sale is happening that can save you a bit of cash on eShop credit.
Olivia Troye, Ex-Pence Aide, Runs for the House as a Democrat
After spending most of her Washington career as a Republican, she joins a crowded field of Democrats running in a Virginia district that doesn’t exist yet.
Trump touts 'gold standard science.' What does that actually mean?
The Trump administration says it's returning U.S. science to a golden era. Critics say it's tarnished by political agendas.
Philippine president does jumping jacks to disprove health rumors
President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., 68, said the impromptu workout was meant to ease worries about his health as the Southeast Asian nation struggles with fallout from the Iran war.
How long does a workout need to be to see health benefits?
Why most Indians don’t have naturally pink lips: The science explained
We have been fed this idea of “naturally pink lips” for way too long. It’s one of those beauty standards that gets pushed everywhere but doesn't actua.
Animal Crossing: New Horizons 3.0.2 update out now, special gift available
Animal Crossing: New Horizons just released a version 3.0.2 update, and it includes a special item to celebrate the series' 25th anniversary.
Pope Leo’s resolute response to Trump attack reveals a man of God, not politics
Pope Leo XIV does not claim to direct political outcomes. He claims the right, and the duty, to judge them.
How Pope Leo XIV Understands His Role in Politics
Leo doesn’t want to be seen as a rival to President Trump. That doesn’t mean he thinks the gospel is apolitical.
Attorney John Morgan declines Florida gubernatorial run, wants to start new political party
Attorney John Morgan said he will not be running for governor of Florida. But he does want to start a new political party
Larry Kudlow: This will happen to anyone who does business with Iran
FOX Business host Larry Kudlow discusses the Trump administration's actions in Iran on 'Kudlow.'
WATCH: Trump says he doesn't owe Pope Leo an apology after attacking him for comments on Iran
When Does ‘The Madison’ Season 2 Premiere?
All the latest updates on the Taylor Sheridan drama.
Overwatch out on Nintendo Switch 2 tomorrow, up to 60 FPS and more
We have an update on Overwatch (previously known as Overwatch 2), as Blizzard just confirmed the release date for the Nintendo Switch 2 version. As it turns out, it’ll be out tomorrow. One of the highlights of Overwatch on Nintendo Switch 2 is support for up to 60 frames per second for both docked and handheld play. Blizzard says the...
JD Vance Seems to Ruin Everything He Touches
Does the vice president really think he has a shot in 2028, despite his consistent failures?
Does anyone really want to deal with Kanye West?
A UK ban coming days after selling out two nights in California perfectly encapsulates Ye’s decades long career.
Google Meet on Android Auto starts rolling out, doesn’t support work accounts
Not long after Apple CarPlay, Google Meet is now making its way to Android Auto, but it doesn’t support work...
Mackenzie Thomas Is The E-Girl Supreme
She doesn’t believe in “oversharing.” She isn’t afraid of her digital footprint. And she may have just inspired Justin Bieber’s Coachella performance.
2026 Best Business Schools | Average SAT, ACT & GPA Scores At The Top B-Schools
What does it take to get into a top-ranked undergraduate business program? All the SAT, ACT & GPA data from our 2026 ranking.
Light-hitting Mariners taking advantage of Astros' shaky pitching
Every year, generally come playoff time, the question is asked: Does good pitching beat good hitting?
Delta has big hopes to build a $5 billion maintenance business
A fast-growing revenue stream to watch at Delta Air Lines doesn’t have to do with Sky Clubs, new routes or more airplane seats. It has to do with maintenance.
Entrepreneurship was never easy, but it doesn’t need to be relentless
Why entrepreneurs and small business owners struggle with mental health, and how intelligent systems can improve that.
Philippines’ Marcos Dispels Health Rumors, Does Jumping Jacks
Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said he is healthy and fine, refuting social media posts speculating on his medical condition.
Why does déjà vu happen, and can science explain it?
Learning with TOI News: You’re walking into a place you’ve never been to before. And yet, for a fleeting moment, it feels known. Not vaguely familiar, but specific, like a me.
What Does Artificial Intelligence Really Mean for Global Politics?
As AI increasingly plays a central role in conflict and war, experts discuss its long-term impact on global politics.
Hashing It Out: Does ‘The Drama’ shoot itself in the foot?
The Panther staff debates the new Zendaya and Robert Pattinson hit, which drew controversial reactions from audiences.
Tomodachi Life: Living the Dream ROM leaked online
It's now been confirmed that the Tomodachi Life: Living the Dream ROM has leaked online just days before launch.
Who Had “New OS For The Z80” On Their 2026 Bingo Card?
Some might say the venerable Z80 doesn’t need another operating system, but [Scott Baker] obviously disagrees. He has come up with a brand new, from scratch OS called NostOS for the Z80-based…
Times Opinion: Let’s expel toxic right-wing politics from the Hamilton County Board of Education
Within national politics, we are living in a world dominated by a toxic political environment. While that is severely toned down at the local level, it does seep through into one realm: our schools.
Dons boss Robinson will not relax until safety is secured
Stephen Robinson does not want Aberdeen to relax during their two-week break after they recorded a much-needed 2-0 win over Hibernian to boost their William Hill Premiership survival hopes. Kevin Nisbet netted from the penalty spot after Grant Hanley was sent off for hauling down Toyosi Olusanya and the Scotland striker added a second with 15 minutes to go to end a nine-match winless league run. The Dons are five points above Kilmarnock, who sit in the relegation play-off spot with five games to play, and the two teams clash at Pittodrie in the next round of Premiership fixtures which does not take place until April 25.
Jon Jones may ‘feel the fire’ to return after UFC 327 but Dana White definitely does not
Jon Jones continues to flip flop on whether or not he intends to retire from the sport, which doesn’t surprise UFC CEO Dana White one bit. White spent the last couple of years glazing Jon Jones as the GOAT of MMA, but that all ended after “Bones” retired in June 2025, reneging on a reported […]
Hearing aids can seem like a big step. This NYC Ballet principal dancer doesn't regret taking it.
According to the National Institutes of Health, less than a fifth of American adults aged 20 to 69 who could benefit from wearing hearing aids have ever used them.
The Hisense UR9 is a great first shot against OLED’s bow
The first affordable RGB LED TV still doesn’t outmatch OLED.
Pokemon Champions Battle Pass Season M-2 rewards leaked
Pokémon Champions has already leaked details about its Battle Pass Season M-2 rewards. The next season isn’t expected to start for quite a bit. Pokemon Champions just launched this week, and alongside that, Season M-1 started up. It should be running until May 12, so the next one isn’t expected until at least a month from now. That said, if...
"Sweet blood doesn't attract mosquitoes: here is what actually attracts them according to science " - Futura-Sciences
At night, you hear the constant buzzing of a mosquito. By morning, there’s a fresh bite right on your cheek. Meanwhile, your partner slept peacefully through the night. During a walk with friends, you’re the one constantly swatting at tiny attacks on your legs, arms, and back. Like tiny vampires...
Cuban leader does not commit to releasing political prisoners amid U.S. demands
In an exclusive interview with Meet the Press, Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel is asked whether he is willing to commit to meeting key U.S. demands, including releasing political prisoners and scheduling multi-party elections.
How to Build a Balanced Plate in 30 Seconds
Building a balanced plate can feel like one more impossible task. But it doesn’t have to be complicated. Here's how to do it.
Why Ozempic doesn’t work for everyone: Scientists just found a hidden reason
A new study reveals that popular diabetes and weight-loss drugs like Ozempic and Wegovy may not work as effectively for about 10% of people due to specific genetic variants. These individuals appear to have a puzzling condition called “GLP-1 resistance,” where their bodies produce higher levels of the hormone targeted by these drugs—but don’t respond to it properly.
My brother doesn't blink. The internet noticed — and fell in love.
"Blink, Brother, blink." The story behind Jan Risher's younger brother, Brother Blink — the man, the merchandise and a moment they shared as children— with speakers turned toward a front yard full of loblolly pines.
Let the state’s narrative-laundering season begin
Politics is a game of narrative. Whoever controls the narrative wins. Sure, the truth is interesting. But truth doesn’t sell. It takes time to uncover, assuming people care enough to go digging for it. Narratives are easier. They’re simple, comforting and come pre-approved by the crowd. Groupthink isn’t just easy. It’s safe. The truth, on […]
Why Did Gretchen Whitmer Go Soft on Trump?
The Michigan governor doesn’t sound like “Big Gretch” anymore.
Does the moon look the same from everywhere on Earth?
The moon's orientation changes quite dramatically across time and between places, largely due to differences in perspective.
How to get a refund on the Nintendo eShop
Here's what you can and can't get refunds for on the Nintendo eShop on Switch and Switch 2 with information on how to actually get one.
High school sports don't stop for the weekend. Here's what happened Saturday
The high school sports schedule doesn't take a weekend off. We've got the stories, scores and more from all of the games in Rhode Island played on Saturday, April 11, 2026.
Finley: Trump's college sports order is an overreach
President's executive order on transfer portal, NIL has him meddling where he doesn't belong.
Seniors: Carol Watson, 72
Owner of Carol Watson Greenhouse and Landscaping in LaFayette enjoys her growing business — still puts in six-, seven-day weeks By Mary Beth Roach Carol Watson, the owner of Carol Watson Greenhouse and Landscaping, has been in gardens since she could walk. Literally. She said she learned to walk in her grandfather’s garden, which was next door to her current home and business in LaFayette. Today, at 72, she is running the business that her mother, Claire, opened in 1981 as Watson Greenhouse. Watson worked part-time for her mom until 1990, when she joined her full time. While she may not have had any formal horticultural experience, she said she learned so much about growing and raising plants from her mom, who had an abundance of energy and talent. Now, after 35 years in the business full time, Watson has no plans to retire, although she joked that she’d like a couple of days off a week. On her seven-acre site, complete with four greenhouses, Watson said her favorite parts of the job are working with and educating her customers; helping some of her young customers build terrariums; conducting occasional class field trips; and supporting local art by decorating the shop with an eclectic mix of pottery from at least four area craftspeople. A one-time employee of the former Dey Bros. department store in Syracuse, Watson said she loves merchandising and enjoys displaying unique pieces of art on shelves and even suspending from ceilings. “We’re creative. We also had top quality plants. We got a reputation of quality plants and unusual products,” she said. It’s tending to her customers and her plants, showcasing the unusual products, and hosting special events to benefit the community that keep her motivated to work six to seven days a week. “I just love it. I love taking care of the plants. I’m one of the few people that really enjoys watering,” she said. And while she has cultivated a solid customer base over the years, she remains savvy in her marketing efforts to draw in new customers. For example, she does a gardening segment on CNY Central television; her active Facebook page has thousands of followers; and she hosts a number of unique events and classes that not only introduce her shop to potential new clients, but some benefit nonprofits as well. About 13 years ago, when the local symphony orchestra was struggling, she said she wanted to help. So, partnering with the group, she began offering concerts, called Soirees, featuring the Syracuse Orchestra’s string quartet. Following up on a suggestion from a customer whose brother is a deejay in retirement, specializing in sock hops, she hosted the greenhouse’s first sock hop. Plants got moved back toward the walls to make room for dancing; a caterer was brought in, offering diner-like food; guests came in period outfits; and proceeds went to the Food Bank of CNY. She is excited about doing it again in October. Via her website, she promotes the greenhouse as an “oasis in the snow,” offering visitors the opportunity to pick up some decorating and gift ideas while taking in the floral and citrus scents. And she also caters to her four-legged friends. Over this past winter, she said, she came up with a “brilliant idea,” although at the time she didn’t appreciate just how brilliant it would become. Feeling it too cold outside to take her dog for a walk, she opted to bring it into the greenhouse. And before long, she was inviting people to bring their dogs into the big greenhouse as well. She looks forward to extending that invitation again this upcoming winter season. For Watson and her customers, the greenhouse is always in season.
Chelsea Star Speaks On Exit From Manchester United
Garnacho, Chelsea Move Signals Reflection After Man United ExitThere is often a moment, quiet and uncomfortable, when a young footballer begins to understand that talent alone does not carry a career....
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
Borderlands 4 Nintendo Switch 2 copies apparently spotted in the wild despite the game being put on hold indefinitely
There’s been an interesting development with the Nintendo Switch 2 version of Borderlands 4 as the game has now been spotted at retail. You may originally recall that the port was planned for release last October. However, it was delayed just a few days before release. Then in February, we heard that development had been paused. That brings us to...