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Trump put Vance in charge of Iran peace talks. He’s now quizzing people on his vice president’s performance
With Vice President JD Vance, a one-time Iran war skeptic, now tasked with brokering a deal to end it, President Donald Trump has been monitoring his progress closely and inquiring with various friends and advisers how they’d rank his performance, according to three people familiar with the conversations.
High school sports top performers from Wednesday went above and beyond
They put up huge days at the plate, on the mound and at the net. Here are Wednesday's 19 high school sports top performers.
Galaxy S27 Ultra may perform on par with desktops, and not just because of a 2nm chip
The Galaxy S27 Ultra may leave all 2026 Android flagships behind in performance.
The transcendent new season of ‘Beef’ is darkly hilarious
Charles Melton delivers a standout performance in the new season of "Beef," premiering April 16 on Netflix.
Travelers posts sharp earnings rebound as catastrophe losses normalize
Insurer reports $1.7 billion in quarterly profit, boosts dividend after strong underwriting and investment performance
Review: Pragmata On Switch 2: An Ambitious Port Held Back By Variable Performance
Not so pragmatic decision-making.
Cleveland’s Asian Festival returns with more food, vendors and entertainment
Cleveland Asian Festival returns May 16–17 with its largest footprint yet, featuring 35+ food vendors, live performances, cultural showcases, and fan-favorite contests in Asiatown.
Chargé Arnold Speech - Implementation Plan of Five-Year Health MOU - U.S. Embassy in Madagascar
Chargée d’Affaires Stephanie Arnold's Speech Discussion on the implementation plan for the five-year health Memorandum of Understanding (…) Colleagues, and honored guests, Good morning, and welcome to the United States Embassy. It is a pleasure to host you today for the second day of this important workshop to discuss the implementation of our bilateral health Memorandum of Understanding on U.S. Government health activities in Madagascar, made possible through the Trump Administration’s America First Global Health Strategy. Today’s focus— discussing a shared vision and developing a preliminary draft for the health MOU Implementation Plan and the terms of reference for the two committees that will steer its implementation—is a decisive step in moving from commitments on paper to concrete action over the next five years. On December 22, 2025, the Governments of Madagascar and the United States signed a five-year bilateral health MOU, with a financial intention of approximately 554 billion Ariary from the United States and This jointly decided MOU intends to strengthen Madagascar’s health system, support lifesaving services, and improve disease prevention and response that matter to both our countries’ health security. For the United States, this means detecting and containing infectious disease outbreaks including malaria, polio, and emerging health threats before they can reach American shores through international travel and trade, protecting American families while reducing the need for costly domestic emergency responses Yesterday, technical experts from the Ministry of Public Health and the U.S. Government worked in thematic groups to draft a preliminary Implementation Plan. Today, your task is to review the shared vision and preliminary draft MOU implementation plan, and the proposed terms of reference for the Joint Steering Committee and the Operational Committee that will guide its implementation. These committees are not just administrative structures. They are the mechanisms that will ensure clear roles and responsibilities, regular dialogue between our two governments, consistent monitoring of progress, and real accountability for the results that will directly benefit the lives of Malagasy citizens. They will also track performance against the benchmarks we have jointly established, which will guide the continuation of U.S. support over the five-year period . Continued U.S. support will be contingent on meeting these performance benchmarks. This ensures accountability to both American and Malagasy taxpayers and guarantees that our partnership delivers measurable results. America First Foreign Assistance means that U.S. support must be strategic, results-driven, and accountable to our taxpayers. It also means we aim to support greater self-reliance and reduced long-term dependence on foreign assistance, with systems that are increasingly financed and led by Madagascar itself. This approach benefits both our nations: Madagascar gains sustainable health capacity, while the United States advances our health security interests and creates opportunities for American health innovations and companies to support Madagascar’s development. In that spirit, I want to recognize the presence of the Ministry’s leadership and the technical directors and program heads responsible for surveillance, basic health services, family health, immunization, countering malaria, laboratories, medicines, and health information systems. Your leadership and technical expertise are essential if this bilateral health MOU is to translate into real and lasting improvements for people in need across the country. Let me emphasize how important collaboration is to the United States in this effort. We can bring American resources, technical expertise, and tools. But this bilateral health MOU can only succeed if it reflects Madagascar’s priorities and if Malagasy institutions lead and maintain its implementation. We see this not as a U.S. project, but as a joint framework under Malagasy leadership, with U.S. support. That is why we are genuinely pleased to host this event here at the Embassy. Opening our doors to you today symbolizes our commitment to work side by side and to remain transparent about how we use U.S. resources in support of Madagascar’s health system. In closing, thank you for your time and your partnership. We are very happy to welcome you here and proud to accompany Madagascar in this next step of implementation planning for our bilateral health MOU. I wish you a productive and focused session. The work you do today will shape how our two governments cooperate on health in the years ahead; it will influence the quality and reliability of health services that Malagasy communities receive; and, most importantly, it will help protect both our nations from infectious disease threats while building Madagascar’s capacity for long-term health system sustainability. Thank you.
AMD Ryzen 7 5800X3D Is Making A Comeback In Q2 2026 As AM4 Turns 10
AMD is re-launching the Ryzen 7 5800X3D in Q2 2026, featuring 8 cores, 16 threads, and 3D V-Cache for superior gaming performance.
United States and Madagascar Discuss Five-Year Health MOU Implementation Plan - U.S. Embassy in Madagascar
United States and Madagascar Discuss Five-Year Health MOU Implementation Plan The United States and Madagascar’s Ministry of Public Health are in the process of developing a plan for implementing the U.S.-Madagascar five-year Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) on health cooperation, signed under the Trump Administration’s America First Global Health Strategy. The two-day workshop, at the U.S. Embassy in Antananarivo, brought together technical experts and senior leadership from the Malagasy and U.S. governments to discuss a shared vision through a preliminary draft MOU Implementation Plan and to establish the joint governance structures that will guide U.S. foreign assistance in health over the next five years. The jointly decided bilateral health MOU, signed on December 22, 2025, builds on decades of U.S. global health assistance to Madagascar. The health MOU involves the U.S.’s plans, working with Congress, to provide approximately $134 million (over 554 billion Ariary) and a Malagasy commitment of $41 million (over 169 billion Ariary). It aims to strengthen Madagascar’s health system, improve disease prevention and response, and support services that address health security concerns for both countries, including malaria, maternal and child health, polio, and global health security issues that could reach U.S. shores if not contained at their source. During the recent workshop, technical staff from the Ministry of Public Health and the U.S. Government health team worked in thematic groups to draft detailed implementation plans for the five-year MOU period. On the second day, U.S. Chargé d’Affaires Stephanie Arnold and Ministry of Public Health and Economic and Finance Ministry leadership joined the technical teams to discuss plans and proposed terms of reference for two committees: a Joint Steering Committee and an Operational Committee. These structures will ensure clear roles and responsibilities, regular dialogue between the two governments, consistent monitoring of progress, and accountability for results. The framework includes performance benchmarks that will guide continued U.S. support and track Madagascar’s progress toward self-reliance. “We see this not as a U.S. project, but as a joint framework under Malagasy leadership, with U.S. support,” said U.S. Chargé d’Affaires Stephanie Arnold during the workshop’s opening session. The approach reflects U.S. foreign assistance principles that emphasize strategic, results-driven support that advances American interests while helping recipient countries build sustainable health systems. The framework is designed to build systems that Madagascar will increasingly finance and lead itself, reducing long-term dependence on foreign assistance.
Shohei Ohtani delivers on Jackie Robinson Day
The Sporting Tribune's Fredo Cervantes writes about Shohei Ohtani's performance on Jackie Robinson Day at Dodger Stadium.
Prep baseball roundup: Big VIII League receives big-time performances
Norco, Corona and Corona Santiago let their hitters take charge in victories
Siri Engineers Sent to AI Coding Bootcamp as Apple Prepares to Deliver Siri Overhaul
Apple is sending a large portion of its Siri engineers to a multi-week bootcamp to learn to code using AI, reports The Information. Apple's decision to teach its programmers to better use AI for coding comes just two months before Apple is expected to unveil a smarter, more capable version of Siri at WWDC. While employees attend the coding bootcamp, around 60 members of the Siri development team will stick around to work on Siri, and an additional 60 will evaluate how Siri is performing.
PinkPantheress makes strong Seattle debut after Coachella 2026 performance
Fresh off her appearance at Coachella last weekend, the now almost 25-year-old British pop figure made her Seattle debut at WAMU Theater.
North Buncombe's Kameron Keenan highlights Week 8 boys spring sports top performers
North Buncombe's Kameron Keenan had two big days to lead the list of Week 8 WNC high school spring sports boys top performers.
Owen's Mia Roland powers Week 8 girls spring sports top performers
Owen's Mia Roland hit two home runs, bringing her to 10 and leading the list of Week 8 WNC high school spring sports girls top performers.
A sneak peek into the $20M expansion of Stateside Live! in South Philadelphia
The transformation of Stateside Live! debuts next month featuring a new two-story rooftop lounge, open-air beer garden and performance stages.
Exercise and sport science professor advances research on female soccer athletes' health - College of Arts and Sciences
Abbie Smith-Ryan, a professor of exercise and sport science, is partnering with U.S. Soccer's Kang Women's Institute on landmark research initiatives designed to transform how female soccer athletes are supported -- advancing health, performance and long-term participation in the game.
Exercise and sport science professor advances research on female soccer athletes' health - College of Arts and Sciences
Abbie Smith-Ryan, a professor of exercise and sport science, is partnering with U.S. Soccer's Kang Women's Institute on landmark research initiatives designed to transform how female soccer athletes are supported -- advancing health, performance and long-term participation in the game.
Keith Urban to headline ninth annual Ally Community Concert
Country music superstar Keith Urban will perform during the Ally Community Concert at Warwick Hills Golf and Country Club on Aug. 29 during the Ally Challenge golf tournament.
Harborside Brass Quintet at The National Museum of Nuclear Science & History
Navy Band Southwest’s Harborside Brass Quintet gives a public performance at The National Museum of Nuclear Science & History in Albuquerque, NM.
Rainier, University of Oklahoma Foundation to Build $1.1B Rock Creek Entertainment District in Norman
NORMAN, OKLA. — Rainier Development Co. has executed a master development agreement with the University of Oklahoma Foundation for the planned Rock Creek Entertainment District, a $1.1 billion project in Norman. Rainier will lead planning, design, coordination and development of the 269-acre district in collaboration with Cleveland County, the City of Norman, the University of Oklahoma, community stakeholders and other development partners. Rock Creek Entertainment District is envisioned as a year-round destination that will include an 8,000-seat performance venue designed to host concerts, conventions and community events, as well as University of Oklahoma men’s and women’s basketball games and women’s gymnastics events. Plans for Phase I of Rock Creek include the performance venue; a central outdoor plaza; approximately 140,000 square feet of retail, dining and entertainment experiences; roughly 250 multifamily units; and a structured parking garage with 1,200 spaces. Phased openings of the venue, restaurants and retail are expected to begin in 2028. Phase II will include approximately 180,000 square feet of office space and a 150-room hotel. Phase III calls for 500 additional multifamily units, as well as townhomes and single-family residences. Future phases are anticipated to include additional expansion, subject to market conditions and planning. The project, located…
5 Everyday Breakfast Foods to Support Brain Health
Start the day with foods that may sharpen memory, focus, and cognitive performance.
Hearing aids can seem like a big step. This NYC Ballet principal dancer doesn’t regret taking it
Sara Mearns is one of the first dancers with the New York City Ballet to wear hearing aids during performances.
These Memphis restaurants got perfect health inspection scores in March
Tennessee Health Department inspectors performed hundreds of health inspections in Shelby County in March. These 46 restaurants earned perfect scores.
Rezz Cancels Coachella Weekend Two Performance Due to Health Issues
The electronic musician has canceled her weekend two Coachella performance due health issues.
New head of the Kennedy Center tries to show that the building really needs a renovation
Trump's move to shutter the building for two years starting in July, which was approved by the board last month, has spurred lawsuits and an outcry that the closure is merely a response to plunging sales as artists canceled Kennedy Center performances in droves.
Overwatch launches on Nintendo Switch 2 with performance issues, Blizzard confirms patch in the works
Overwatch just launched on Nintendo Switch 2 today, but things haven’t gone smoothly. Soon after release, players reported issues with the port – notably with performance. Blizzard promised that the new Nintendo Switch 2 version would run up to 60 frames per second. However, some fans thought that the Nintendo Switch 1 version was accidentally uploaded since the action felt...
Memphis area spring sports top performers for Week 7 of the 2026 season
Here are Memphis area high school baseball, softball, boys soccer and lacrosse top performers from Week 7 of the 2026 season.
High school sports top performers from Monday left the yard often
Big flies were the name of the game Monday. Our 25 high school sports top performers left the yard and posted milestone moments and huge days.
New Seattle improv program offers more than performance skills
Improv for Real Life, which launched in Seattle last summer, prioritizes building community and teaching skills you can use offstage.
Sony’s latest gaming headset offers great open-back audio
Stellar sound performance, if you don’t mind its lack of noise cancellation.
The Talbott Brothers to showcase songs from latest album ‘Borderlands’
The Talbott Brothers, heavily influenced by Bruce Springsteen’s “Nebraska,” will perform April 17 at CSPS Hall in Cedar Rapids.
Later More Than Doubles Enterprise Business as Influencer Marketing Becomes a Performance Channel
/PRNewswire/ -- Later, the enterprise standard for influencer marketing and social commerce, today announces record performance milestones for Q1 2026. Fueled...
VA announces intent to reorganize the Veterans Health Administration
The Department of Veterans Affairs is restructuring the Veterans Health Administration (VHA) to eliminate administrative hurdles and grant local hospital directors greater autonomy, the VA said in an announcement on Dec. 15, 2025. The shift aims to modernize the system, ensuring veterans receive consistent, high-quality care regardless of the VA facility they visit. The VA said this isn’t a reduction in force or an attempt to reduce VHA staffing levels. The department said the goal is to improve veteran health outcomes and ensure policies are applied consistently throughout all facilities. As part of the reorganization, the VHA Central Office will have responsibility for setting policy goals and conducting financial management, oversight and compliance, and operation centers and Veterans Integrated Service Networks (VISNs) will take policy direction from the VHA Central Office to develop operational, quality and performance standards. The changes aim to provide clearer guidance for delivering health care throughout the VA. For DAV’s statement on VHA reorganization, scan the code or visit qrs.ly/q9h7shd. For DAV’s statement on VHA reorganization, visit dav.org/learn-more/news/2025/dav-statement-on-vha-reorganization/.
Final tour for Alabama stops in Cedar Rapids
Alabama, a band that marries country with Southern rock, was among the most successful acts of the '80s. Known for hits like "Tennessee River," they will perform on Sunday at the Alliant Energy PowerHouse.
Here\'s the performance schedule for Marietta\'s Cherry Blossom Benefit Music Festival
Enjoy musical acts under a stretch of 150 cherry trees in full bloom when Marietta’s Cherry Blossom Benefit Music Festival returns Saturday, April 18.
Paulo Costa and Josh Hokit trade shots on social media
UFC 327 last Saturday was heavyweight Josh Hokit's coming out party. He garnered attention with his media antics leading up to the event and then put on a performance that won't soon be forgotten. Unranked Hokit faced No. 5 ranked Curtis Blaydes in a main card matchup and was part of what some are ...
Capela Delivers Big Night - And a First Career Three
Clint Capela dominates the glass and scores a season-high, sinking his first-ever three-pointer in a career-defining performance.
Overture Center announces 2026-2027 season
MADISON, Wis. (WKOW) -- The Overture Center unveiled its 2026-2027 season on Monday. The lineup features eight Broadway shows and more than 30 Overture Presents performances.
‘American Idol’ Live Blog: Who Will Make the Top 9?
Follow along for a night of Rock & Roll Hall of Fame performances and to find out who was eliminated.
Bleacher Report Lists Diamondbacks Top 5 in MLB Power Rankings
BALTIMORE – The No. 4 spot in Bleacher Report’s latest power rankings says as much about identity as it performs.
4 shows to see in the Coachella Valley this weekend
Mariachazo will perform on Friday at Fantasy Springs Resort Casino.
Sources: Mavs dismiss director of health in another shake-up
The Dallas Mavericks have dismissed director of health and performance Johann Bilsborough on Monday, marking the fourth consecutive year that the franchise has made major changes in that department.
Utah Royals FC Welcomes Dave Tenney as Senior Director of Player Health and Performance
HERRIMAN, Utah (Monday, April 13, 2026) – Utah Soccer President of Soccer Operations Jason Kreis - overseeing Utah Royals FC (National Women’s Soccer League), Real Salt Lake (Major League Soccer), Real Monarchs (MLS NEXT Pro) and the RSL Academy - has named highly-respected sports medicine veteran Dave Tenney as the
Alice Cooper returns to Eastern Iowa
The Godfather of Shock Rock performs April 18 at Alliant Energy PowerHouse in Cedar Rapids.
High school sports top performers from the weekend took no days off
They don't need a break. These 15 high school sports top performers dominated the weekend across the diamond, field and courts. See who made the cut.
Mackenzie Thomas Is The E-Girl Supreme
She doesn’t believe in “oversharing.” She isn’t afraid of her digital footprint. And she may have just inspired Justin Bieber’s Coachella performance.
Stanford HAI 2026 AI Index: AI posts gains in science and medicine while often struggling to read a clock
Stanford HAI’s 2026 AI Index paints a split-screen picture for R&D. In the report’s science chapter, “frontier models outperform human chemists on average on ChemBench,” yet “score below 20% on replication in astrophysics and 33% on Earth observation questions.” In medicine, the report reaches a similarly mixed conclusion, saying AI is transforming clinical care, but…
Cruise entertainment | evolution of the guest experience
How cruises are dissolving boundaries between performance, dining and design to create fully immersive, all-day entertainment experiences
We Tested Every Ryzen 5 and 7 X3D CPU: From 5800X3D to 9800X3D
Nine X3D CPUs, two platforms, and 14 games tested. We compare every Ryzen 5 and 7 X3D processor to find out how much performance has improved since...
Blind Boys of Alabama to perform in Provincetown
The Blind Boys of Alabama, Grammy-winning gospel legends, will perform in Provincetown to benefit WOMR radio.
A summer of classical music ‘for all’
The Aspen Music Festival and School celebrates its 77th year this summer. The season begins July 1 and ends Aug. 24 and includes over 200 performances.
High school sports top performers of the week for March 30-April 11
A look at the best performances in high school sports from the week before spring break.
In VfB masterclass: why Mittelstädt just let fly
In VfB Stuttgart’s impressive performance against Hamburger SV, Maximilian Mittelstädt was especially in the spotlight. The left-back not only delivered a flawless defensive display in the Swabians...
Tested: Windows 11 just fixed slow storage management and removed a 30-year FAT32 limit
Windows 11 improves storage performance and removes FAT32 32GB limit. Disk properties now load faster in latest Insider builds.
The underworld invades Sutter Street Theatre
FOLSOM — "Hadestown: Teen Edition," an intriguing and beautiful folk opera, delivers a deeply resonant and defiantly hopeful theatrical experience. The full-length adaptation of Anaïs Mitchell’s "Hadestown," modified for performance
An Evening with Kip Moore
Live Interview + Special Performance in celebration of Moore's album release "Reason to Believe".
Rosenior: Chelsea ‘nowhere near’ expectations against Man City
Liam Rosenior was highly critical of Chelsea’s second-half performance after they fell to a 3-0 defeat to Manchester City on Sunday. The Blues started brightly at Stamford Bridge and even thought t...
Comedian Sebastian Maniscalco set for Turning Stone show
Comedian Sebastian Maniscalco will perform April 18, 2026, at Turning Stone Resort Casino in Verona as part of his national tour.
‘The Pitt’ Guest Star Shawn Hatosy Could Make Emmy History
Hatosy won Emmy gold for his performance in the medical drama last year, and this year, he could pull off a never-before-seen feat.
Alabama redshirt freshman QB turns heads with spring game performance
Keelon Russell was a five-star recruit in the 2025 class, and he could be in line to take over under center this fall after an electric spring game.
Old Forge library to host two original plays
Two original plays will be performed April 16 at Old Forge Library. The free event features local actors and a debut production.
Taco Bell's Golden Bell awards are key to its company growth
Taco Bell's annual management retreat is more than recognition for its top-performing staff — it's a key driver of growth and staff retention.
GameChannel: Live Scores & Updates
Check out matchups and games, live scores, updates, results, top performers and team comparisons for your favorite sports and fantasy leagues.
Assessing Caesars Entertainment (CZR) Valuation As Investors Revisit The Stock’s Recent Performance
Why Caesars Entertainment (CZR) is on investors’ radar Caesars Entertainment (CZR) has drawn attention after recent share price moves, with a 1 day gain of about 1.7% contrasting with a loss of roughly 7.5% over the past month. See our latest analysis for Caesars Entertainment. That short term 1 day and 7 day share price strength sits against a 30 day share price return of about an 8% decline, a 90 day gain of 9.1% and a 1 year total shareholder return of 6.1%. Longer term total shareholder...
What the NC Azalea Festival Street Fair looked like in Wilmington
The N.C. Azalea Festival Street Fair in Wilmington featured live entertainment, a performing arts stage, children's activities and vendors.
Who were Montgomery area high school sports top performers for April 6-10
A list of this week's top performers in high school sports in the Montgomery area from games played Monday through Friday, April 6-10.
Ravens add Dr. Nic Gill for outside perspective on sports performance
The Baltimore Ravens hired Dr. Nic Gill as VP of Health & Performance, bringing an 'outside perspective' to the team.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
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