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Nathalie Baye, French actor known for her warmth and versatility, dies at 77
Nathalie Baye, a French actor known for her versatility and charm, has died at 77 | Talk 1370
Eastbound I-80 closure in San Francisco snarls traffic, slows business
11 missing or dead scientists draw federal scrutiny, including 4 tied to LA County
The Trump administration is reviewing 11 cases of missing or deceased scientists, including Southern California researchers Monica Jacinto Reza, Carl Grillmair, Frank Maiwald, and Michael David Hicks.
Why Jane Fonda showed up at a San Francisco ballet this weekend
Jane Fonda appears at Alonzo King Lines Ballet performance in San Francisco, backing the arts as concerns grow over funding, leadership changes and political influence.
Myrtle Beach is home to SC's first Slime Kitchen
The first Slime Kitchen franchise in South Carolina is offering visitors and locals the opportunity to create customized slime at Broadway at the Beach.
Rosalind Franklin, chemist: “Science and everyday life cannot and should not be separated”
A pioneering DNA scientist reflects on science, faith and purpose, offering a grounded view of how discovery and everyday life intertwine
Ohio Judge Temporarily Pauses Hemp Product Ban For Two Businesses
“The judge here is concerned about retailers that have made big investments in inventory, and they can’t move it, they can’t transport it, they can’t sell it.” By Megan Henry, Ohio Capital Journal A Franklin County judge granted a temporary restraining order (TRO) to allow two smoke shops to sell off their products less than […]
Mpox vaccination urged after more-severe strain detected in San Francisco
California health officials are urging high-risk residents to get vaccinated against mpox after a potentially more-severe strain of the virus was detected for the first time in San Francisco.
Pictures: Orlando Magic rout Charlotte to clinch Playoff Spot
Stephen M. Dowell/Orlando Sentinel) Orlando coach Jamahl Mosley yells during the Charlotte Hornets at Orlando Magic NBA Play-In game at the Kia Center on Friday, April 17, 2026. Stephen M. Dowell/Orlando Sentinel) Orlando forward Franz Wagner (middle) scores between Charlotte defenders Brandon Miller (24) and Miles Bridges (0) during the Charlotte Hornets at Orlando Magic NBA Play-In game at the Kia Center on Friday, April 17, 2026. Stephen M. Dowell/Orlando Sentinel) Orlando coach Jamahl Mosley signals during the Charlotte Hornets at Orlando Magic NBA Play-In game at the Kia Center on Friday, April 17, 2026.
Frank signaled that the Clippers would like to extend …
Frank signaled that the Clippers would like to extend …
San Francisco drivers, businesses prep for weekend closure of I-80 Bay Bridge approach
SF Department of Public Health confirms first clade I mpox case
The San Francisco Department of Public Health on Tuesday confirmed the first case of clade 1 mpox in a city resident.
Starmer rejects calls to quit as pressure mounts over Mandelson vetting
Top Foreign Office official takes fall for fiasco and resigns; Starmer promises to deliver 'relevant facts' on Monday.
Why Political Pressure on Central Banks Can Raise Your Borrowing Costs
The question of central bank independence came up during a fireside chat on Grounds with Philip Lane, chief economist of the European Central Bank, hosted by economist and Darden professor Frank Warnock.
Garret Anderson, World Series champion with Angels, dies at 53
The outfielder was remembered as "one of our franchise’s most beloved icons," said the team's owner.
Always wanted to move to Paris; another French city was better for me
Growing up, I dreamed of living in Paris, but later realized Lyon, France, was a better fit for me. I prefer the city's location and cost of living.
The 3 forces quietly dismantling the business model that made enterprise software fabulously profitable
Roundtables with senior business leaders in San Francisco and New York revealed a consensus: AI isn't just threatening SaaS, but the entire industry.
Cosm Breaks Ground on Immersive Entertainment Venue in Downtown Cleveland
CLEVELAND — Cosm, along with Bedrock and Rock Entertainment Group, have broken ground on a new entertainment venue located at the intersection of East 4th Street, Prospect Avenue and Huron Road in downtown Cleveland. Dubbed Cosm Cleveland, the venue will sit directly across from Rocket Arena (formerly Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse), home of the NBA’s Cleveland Cavaliers and AHL’s Cleveland Monsters. The two professional sports franchises are owned by Dan Gilbert, founder of Rocket Mortgage, Bedrock and Rock Entertainment Group. Spanning approximately 64,000 square feet and rising three stories, Cosm Cleveland will comprise two programmatic elements: The Dome and The Hall. Through Cosm’s proprietary technology called Shared Reality, the venue will merge a stadium-like atmosphere with state-of-the-art visuals in a communal setting. Rossetti Architects designed Cosm Cleveland, and Bedrock is leading the development. The venue, which will anchor Bedrock’s Rock Block mixed-use development, is slated to open in 2027. “This is a major milestone for our downtown Gateway District, and the arrival of Cosm is a testament to our community’s spirit and resilience,” says Cleveland Mayor Justin Bibb. “This incredible venue will enhance our city’s reputation as a hub for sports and entertainment, drawing visitors from near and far to experience a…
Small business owners in Knoxville left scrambling after popular consignment store franchise closes
How did Louisville Kings come to be? Inside the UFL expansion decision
How did Louisville, Kentucky, land a United Football League franchise? Here's an inside look at how and why the Louisville Kings UFL team came to be.
'Allies, not vassals': How Meloni's break with Trump became a political moment for Italy
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is managing the repercussions of a public rebuke from US President Donald Trump this week over the pope, Iran and a defence deal with Israel. It's a rupture that…
10 Takeaways: Avalanche Break Franchise Record In Regular Season Finale
The 2025-26 Avalanche are officially the best regular-season team in franchise history. After defeating the Seattle Kraken 2-0 on Thursday, […] The post 10 Takeaways: Avalanche Break Franchise Record In Regular Season Finale appeared first on Colorado Hockey Now.
49ers make 2 bold picks in 3-round mock draft
The 49ers could use both of their first two picks on offense in the 2026 draft.
2026 NFL Mock Draft: San Francisco 49ers select wide receiver
With the 27th overall pick in the 2026 Bleeding Green Nation community mock draft, San Francisco 49ers GM granthill7 selects ...
Franklin County judge temporarily blocks Ohio’s intoxicating hemp ban for two businesses
Sunny Mehta named new General Manager of Devils
The New Jersey Devils have announced the hiring of Sunny Mehta as the sixth general manager in franchise history.
Jay Cheng resigns as head of wealthy S.F. political pressure group
The head of Neighbors for a Better San Francisco, one of the city's wealthiest political pressure groups, is out.
Can the Cavs Set Their Playoff Tone Against the Raptors?
The 2026 NBA playoffs have taken shape, and the Cleveland Cavaliers look to right the wrongs of years past. This year, the wine and gold will face an old playoff foe in the Toronto Raptors, a team the franchise has familiarity with from its days with LeBron James leading the charge. However, this is a […] The post Can the Cavs Set Their Playoff Tone Against the Raptors? appeared first on The Lead.
NASA Begins Implementation for ESA’s Rosalind Franklin Mission to Mars
NASA has given approval for the agency’s Rosalind Franklin Support and Augmentation (ROSA) project to begin implementation, underscoring the agency’s
James Franklin wanted to spite Penn State after firing. Here's why he didn't
USA TODAY Sports visited James Franklin at Virginia Tech to find out why ex-Penn State coach turned down $49 million vacation to rebuild in Blacksburg
49ers News: One week away
Your daily San Francisco 49ers news for Thursday, April 16th, 2026
Hamilton County commission discusses new business incubator plans amid tenant concerns
There are new developments in the future of the Hamilton County business incubator as elected officials unveil a new vision for the program.This comes as conce
City leaders and advocates address disparities in Black maternal health
SAN FRANCISCO (KRON) — San Francisco policy leaders and community advocates are marking Black Maternal Health Week with a focus on improving outcomes for Black families. The event at City Hall high…
San Francisco health officials confirm measles in infant; first case since 2019
Hamilton County unveils new business incubator plans as current tenants fear costly move
A day after small business owners raised concerns about the possible sale of their building, Hamilton County leaders are outlining where the incubator could go
Donald Trump messed with the wrong pope
Trump fought with Pope Francis before. He’s finding Pope Leo XIV to be a tougher foil.
http://democrats-energycommerce.house.gov/media/press-releases/pallone-opening-remarks-subcommittee-legislative-hearing-public-health-bills
Energy and Commerce Committee Ranking Member Frank Pallone, Jr. (D-NJ) delivered the following opening remarks at a Health Subcommittee legislative hearing on "Healthier America: Legislative Proposals to Improve Public Health:"
WATCH LIVE: It's Tax Day. IRS chief is testifying on tax filing season
IRS CEO Frank Bisignano is set to testify in front of the Senate Finance Committee on Wednesday.
30 years of Pokémon—how the Japanese franchise mirrors real-world science
As Pokémon turns 30, we take a look at how the beloved Japanese kids’ franchise was inspired by—and has shaped—real-world science
Longevity enthusiast Bryan Johnson shares a test for biological age
Johnson led the exercise at Business Insider's The Long Play event in San Francisco on Tuesday. You can do it anywhere with a timer.
‘Mormon Wives’ star Taylor Frankie Paul will not be charged in recent fights with ex-partner
Utah reality star Taylor Frankie Paul will not be charged in a pair of February fights with her former partner, the Salt Lake County District Attorney’s Office said | Newsradio 1140 WRVA
‘Mormon Wives’ star Taylor Frankie Paul will not be charged in recent fights with ex-partner
Utah reality star Taylor Frankie Paul will not be charged in a pair of February fights with her former partner, the Salt Lake County District Attorney’s Office said | 830 WCCO
Attorney says suspect in attack on OpenAI CEO's home was in midst of 'mental health crisis'
The man accused of trying to kill OpenAI CEO Sam Altman by throwing a Molotov cocktail at his San Francisco home was experiencing a mental health crisis and has been overcharged by prosecutors, his public defender said Tuesday.
Hugo Ekitike injury: Liverpool boss Arne Slot gives worrying update after France international stretchered off in PSG defeat
Suspect Was in Apparent Mental Health Crisis During Attack on Sam Altman’s House
The San Francisco Public Defender’s office said 20-year-old Daniel Moreno-Gama was in the midst of acute mental illness when he attacked the OpenAI CEO’s home and offices, and was “overcharged” by local and national authorities.
Entertainment Park Franchise Looks for Location in Leesburg
Plans to bring an all-ages entertainment park to Leesburg are in motion.
Pool Scouts Owner Wins SBA Alabama Veteran-Owned Small Business of the Year Award
Pool Scouts of Huntsville owner, among other SBA winners, will be recognized during the National Small Business Week for their significant work within the greater Alabama business community.
TPG to Acquire Learfield, the Leading College Sports Media Sales and Technology Provider
Investment to support continued transformation of college sports and live entertainment through digital and physical sports IP, brand sponsorship, and fan engagement solutions DALLAS, SAN FRANCISCO & FORT WORTH, TEXAS – TPG, a leading global alternative asset management firm, today announced the signing of a definitive agreement to acquire Learfield, the nation’s leading media and […]
TPG to Acquire Learfield, the Leading College Sports Media Sales and Technology Provider
Investment to support continued transformation of college sports and live entertainment through digital and physical sports IP, brand sponsorship, and fan engagement solutions DALLAS, SAN FRANCISCO & FORT WORTH, TEXAS – April 14, 2026 – TPG, a leading global alternative asset management firm, today announced the signing of a definitive agreement to acquire Learfield, the […]
The real science of Pokémon
The Pokémon franchise, including its recent game Pokémon Pokopia, is inspired by real animals and their ecology. It’s no surprise that so many scientists love to try and “catch ’em all”
49ers News: Gonna be a long night next Thursday
Your daily San Francisco 49ers news for Tuesday, April 14th, 2026
Can WR prospect with question marks fix 49ers WR corps?
The San Francisco 49ers have added two veterans wideouts to their room, but now they're looking at intriguing prospect in the 2026 NFL draft.
Steelers make franchise-altering decision in latest mock draft
I wonder how this would be received.
Earth Day forum to explore climate solutions through business and policy in San Francisco
Earth Day arrives next week. Amid global distractions, a local public forum plots new strategies for tackling climate change. The World Meteorological
Tourism, sports, and entertainment are key to DC’s downtown comeback, investors say
Ted Leonsis and Mark Ein, investors in team franchises, told Semafor World Economy that the US capital could be revived by investing in sports venues.
Tourism, sports, and entertainment are key to DC’s downtown comeback, investors say
Ted Leonsis and Mark Ein, investors in team franchises, told Semafor World Economy that the US capital could be revived by investing in sports venues.
Diana Taurasi, J.J. Hardy among seven Arizona Sports Hall of Fame inductees
Diana Taurasi, J.J. Hardy and Frank Busch were among seven inductees to the Arizona Sports Hall of Fame in recognition of their impact on Arizona’s sports legacy.
Sources: Mavs dismiss director of health in another shake-up
The Dallas Mavericks have dismissed director of health and performance Johann Bilsborough on Monday, marking the fourth consecutive year that the franchise has made major changes in that department.
Francisco G. Cigarroa named International Citizen of the Year - UT Health San Antonio
Francisco G. Cigarroa, MD, has been named the 2026 International Citizen of the Year by the World Affairs Council of San Antonio.
'Phantom of the Opera' Global Expansion for 40th Anniversary
LW Entertainment unveils plans to transform the iconic musical into a multi-generational entertainment franchise.
Legendary Entertainment on Expanding 'Dune' and Monsterverse
James Ngo, shares how the company is transforming flagship franchises like "Dune" and Monsterverse into immersive, year-round experiences.
Kansas governor signs sports authority bill to guide Kansas City Chiefs’ developments
The governor, state legislative leaders and owners of the NFL franchise announced in December the framework of a deal for developing a domed stadium surrounded by an entertainment district in Wyandotte County, in addition to the team’s headquarters, training facility and related developments in Johnson County.
Many Popes Before Leo Have Been Entangled in Politics. Here Are 5 of Them.
Leo XIV, under fire from President Trump, has joined predecessors including Francis and John Paul II in confronting political issues.
France is replacing 2.5 million Windows desktops with Linux - and I mapped out its new stack
Officially, we don't know what France's forthcoming Linux desktop will look like, but this is what my sources and experience tell me to expect.
Gray whales are entering San Francisco Bay and many aren’t surviving
Gray whales are beginning to break their long-established migration patterns, venturing into risky new territory like San Francisco Bay as climate change disrupts their Arctic food supply. But this unexpected detour is proving deadly: nearly one in five whales that enter the Bay don’t survive, with many struck by ships in the crowded, foggy waters.
"I couldn't protect it" Pete Hines says he left Microsoft-owned Bethesda because he didn't want to watch it be "damaged and broken apart and frankly mistreated, abused"
Former Bethesda head of publishing Pete Hines has spoken about the frustrations which led him to retire back in 2023.
Tut Tut - Small Business Success Stories
Learn how Tut Tut, a local delivery company in France, uses Mac for application development and to power its fast-growing operations.
49ers News: What a tremendous week to extend Trent Williams
Your daily San Francisco 49ers news for Monday, April 13th, 2026
18% of gray whales that enter San Francisco Bay die there, scientists find
The climate crisis seems to be altering gray whales’ access to food, leading them to change their migration paths and forage in San Francisco Bay — a busy shipping area with a narrow bottleneck both whales and boats must cross. Scientists surveying these whales suspect that many don’t survive to leave the bay: of the 114 individuals they identified, only four were seen in more than one year between 2018 and 2025, and 21 were found dead, giving a minimum mortality rate of 18%. Many deaths were caused by vessel strike injuries, while some others are due to starvation.
Franklin youth sports event fight; gunfire reported, man arrested
Franklin police arrested a 36-year-old Illinois man on Sunday after a youth sports fight prompted gunshot reports, but investigators say no gun was fired.
Suspect in Molotov attack on Sam Altman linked to AI Discord
Authorities in San Francisco booked the suspect on Friday, and is facing several charges. Including arson of an inhabited structure or property.
"Find something that works for you": Health and wellness tips for the summer
Fitness expert Doug Bopst joins Jen Franciotti to discuss positive health habits to develop in advance of the summer months.
Where to watch San Francisco Giants vs Baltimore Orioles: TV channel, start time, streaming for Apr. 12
Here's how to watch Sunday's Baltimore Orioles vs San Francisco Giants game, including start times, TV channels, scores and how to stream.
Early data promising on RI's evolving behavioral health model
Rhode Island's certified community behavioral health clinics are showing promising results, increasing access and improving outcomes, the author says.
Nintendo's Animated Films Challenge Disney's Box Office Dominance
Nintendo's expansion into theatrical animation, with billion-dollar films and an annual release slate, is challenging Disney's dominance while strategically promoting its gaming hardware and franchises like the successful Switch 2.
Gary Jackson featured at FMU School of Business for annual Common Author Colloquium
More than 60 students, faculty and community members gathered at Harris Auditorium Thursday for the annual Common Author Colloquium featuring author Gary Jackson, who discussed his new book “Small Lives: Poems,” which reimagines superheroes with new themes. The event, hosted by Shawn Smolen-Morton, chair of Francis Marion University’s Department of Modern Languages and professor of...
An AI launched this retail store and hired employees on its own
Andon Labs let an AI loose with $100,000 to start a small store in San Francisco.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
France Kicks Windows to the Curb, Pivots to Linux OS
David Amiel, France’s Minister of Public Action and Accounts, said his country must 'break free' and 'become less reliant on American tools.'
'Now is the time' for North West 200 debut
North West 200 newcomer Franco Bourne believes the time is right for him to make his international road race debut at the event in May.
Brittney Griner to sign with Connecticut Sun, AP source says
Brittney Griner is finalizing a deal to join the Connecticut Sun, according to a person familiar with the negotiations. The 10-time All-Star spent last season with the Atlanta Dream after playing the first 11 years of her career for Phoenix, which drafted her No. 1 in 2013. The 35-year-old Griner is from Houston and the Connecticut franchise is moving there in 2027.
Accusation of sexual assault threatens Swalwell governor bid
The Democrat running for governor categorically denied any misconduct involving congressional staffers. Then the San Francisco Chronicle published an article quoting an alleged victim.
Candidates for California governor call on Swalwell to drop out after allegations of sexual assault
The Democratic congressmember came under pressure after the San Francisco Chronicle reported that a former staffer alleged the congressmember sexually assaulted her.
DAVID MARCUS: Virginia's battle over gerrymandering betrays our broken politics
A Virginia referendum on redistricting could redraw U.S. House maps from 6-5 to 10-1 for Democrats, raising fears of disenfranchising Republicans.
Nevada reports 8,099 new business registrations in March, nearly $21M in revenue
Nevada saw a jump in new business activity in March, with 8,099 new business registrations filed statewide, according to Secretary of State Francisco Aguilar.Ag
France to Ditch Microsoft Windows as Europe's War on American Tech Rages On
Linux feels more French anyway.
Molotov cocktail thrown at Sam Altman's $27 million home
The San Francisco Police Department said a 20-year-old suspect is in custody and charges are pending. OpenAI praised the police's quick response.
80 Years of Excellence: 49ers Launch Reimagined Mobile App
Sourdough Sam AI guides fans through a redesigned app, offering personalized stats and stadium info. Celebrate 80 years with this groundbreaking digital experience.
Broncos ownership group joins Rockies as minority partners
DENVER -- Penner Sports Group, the family entity of Greg and Carrie Penner that owns the Denver Broncos, has made an investment that will make it the largest minority owner of the Rockies franchise. The move, approved by Major League Baseball, was announced by Rockies owner, chairman and CEO Dick
BI Live debuts flagship event in San Francisco
Business Insider is bringing its journalism off the page and into the room with our first flagship BI Live event.
France to ditch Windows for Linux to reduce reliance on US tech
France's move to ditch Windows for Linux is its latest effort to reduce its reliance on American tech giants.
Picture this: A raffle offers a Picasso for 100 euros to fund Alzheimer’s research
A raffle in France offers the chance to win a Picasso portrait for a 100-euro ticket | 1010 WINS
Horne misses Toulon clash through injury
Glasgow Warriors head coach Franco Smith has made two changes for Saturday's Champions Cup quarter-final clash against RC Toulon. An unchanged front-row sees Patrick Schickerling continue at loose-head alongside Gregor Hiddleston and Zander Fagerson up front.
Media Mention: Sam Franck Profiled in Greater Wilmington Business Journal
Real estate attorney Sam Franck is the subject of a feature profile in the April 2026 issue of the Greater Wilmington Business Journal. The article, “Atto