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Dear Ed Sheeran, fence-sitting is so last century: musicians can no longer opt out of politics
It’s all very 2026: with a stadium owner on one side and angry support acts on the other, the cornered star will have to pick a side, says Guardian columnist Zoe Williams
The Science of Childhood Anxiety
Yale researchers are improving the treatment of childhood anxiety by investigating all aspects of the disorder, down to the molecular level.
New and returning performers shine with the Oswego Players
OSWEGO — Rehearsals are underway for the Oswego Players’ fall show for the 2026 season, “Old Money, New Habits,” written by local playwright Alexis Martin and directed by Sherri Metz.The play will be performed starting Oct. 9 at the Frances Marion Brown Theater in Fort Ontario Park. × This page requires Javascript. Javascript is required for you to be able to read premium content. Please enable it in your browser settings. kAmyF?:A6C qC:88D 2?5 y6??:76C w:E494@4< A=2J E96 4=2DD:42==J >:D>2E4965 ?6H=JH65D |@?EJ 2?5 u6=:4:EJ s2G:6D :? E9:D 72C46 D6E :? E96 `hb_D :? t?8=2?5] |@?EJ :D 2? 62DJ8@:?8[ 56G@E65 9FD32?5[ H9:=6 u6=:4:EJ :D E96 5@>:?66C:?8 2?5 4@??:G:?8 H:76 H9@ >FDE 86E 6G6CJE9:?8 D96 56D:C6D] q@E9 92G6 D64C6ED 2?5 E96J H@F=5 5@ 2?JE9:?8 E@ 2G@:5 E96:C 6IA@DFC6]k^Am#placement_726068_0_i{width:100%;margin:0 auto;}var rnd = window.rnd || Math.floor(Math.random()*10e6);var pid726068 = window.pid726068 || rnd;var plc726068 = window.plc726068 || 0;var abkw = window.abkw || '';var absrc = 'https://ads.empowerlocal.co/adserve/;ID=181918;size=0x0;setID=726068;type=js;sw='+screen.width+';sh='+screen.height+';spr='+window.devicePixelRatio+';kw='+abkw+';pid='+pid726068+';place='+(plc726068++)+';rnd='+rnd+';click=CLICK_MACRO_PLACEHOLDER';var _absrc = absrc.split("type=js"); absrc = _absrc[0] + 'type=js;referrer=' + encodeURIComponent(document.location.href) + _absrc[1];document.write('');kAmw:E494@4< DE2CE65 H:E9 E96 !=2J6CD :? a__b[ 2?5 E9:D :D 96C 7:CDE E:>6 324< @? DE286 :? 2 7F==\=6?8E9 AC@5F4E:@? D:?46 a_a` 2?5 E96 3:CE9 @7 96C 52F89E6C]k^AmkAm“x’> 92G:?8 E96 E:>6 @7 >J =:76 H:E9 E9:D D9@H[” D96 D2:5] “|J 52F89E6C 5@6D?’E C62==J 8C2DA H9J |@>>J =62G6D 96C E@ 8@ E@ C6962CD2=D 2?5 8:G6D 2 AFKK=65 6IAC6DD:@? H9:=6 x’> C64:E:?8 >J =:?6D 2C@F?5 E96 9@FD6 :? >J A@D9 t?8=:D9 2446?E] x =@G6 5@:?8 72C46[ 2?5 H@C6 324< @? DE286]”k^AmkAmu@C qC:88D[ 2=E9@F89 96 92D D@>6 DE286 6IA6C:6?46 H:E9 @E96C E962E6CD[ E9:D :D 9:D 7:CDE D9@H H:E9 E96 ~DH68@ !=2J6CD]k^AmkAm“x 962C5 23@FE E96 2F5:E:@?D E9C@F89 E96 !=2J6CD’ u2463@@< A286[” 96 D2:5] “x 6[ D@ x 7:8FC65 x’5 8:G6 :E 2 D9@E] x H2D 56=:89E65 H96? $96CC: 42DE >6 2?5 92G6 C62==J 2AAC64:2E65 E96 H6=4@>6 x C646:G65 7C@> 2== 2?5 E96 ECFDE 2?5 C6DA64E 2== E96 24E@CD 2?5 4C6H D9@H E@ 6249 @E96C]”k^AmkAm|6EK 92D 366? A=62D65 H:E9 AC@8C6DD D@ 72C]k^AmkAm“x =@G6 72C46[ 3FE :E :D 2 G6CJ 5:77:4F=E EJA6 @7 E962E6C E@ 5@ H6==] }@E @?=J 5@ E96 42DE >6>36CD ?665 E@ ‘364@>6’ E96:C 492C24E6CD[ 3FE E96J >FDE 56=:G6C DA@E\@? E:>:?8 H:E9 6?EC2?46D[ 6I:ED[ 2?5 :?E6C24E:@?] %9:D H9@=6 4C6H 2C6 5@:?8 C62==J H6== 2?5 x 2> 4@?7:56?E H:== AC@G:56 2 7:CDE\4=2DD D9@H]”k^AmkAm!6C7@C>2?46 52E6D 2?5 E:>6D 7@C U=5BF@j~=5 |@?6J[ }6H w23:EDUC5BF@j 2C6 fib_ A]>] @? uC:52JD 2?5 $2EFC52JD ~4E] h\`_ 2?5 `e\`f[ H:E9 $F?52J >2E:?66D 2E a A]>] @? ~4E] `` 2?5 `g] %:46?E H:E9 ~=5 |@?6J !C@5F4E:@?D WHHH]@=5>@?6JAC@5F4E:@?D]4@>X] %96 ~DH68@ !=2J6CD 24
Wardogs has already made more money than Marathon, and its Steam launch momentum is ahead of Arc Raiders and Helldivers 2
Wardogs has successfully converted Steam Wishlists to bring in $70m from its 1.6 million active users.
Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 4 Campaign Trailer Reveals Death Stranding Star Mads Mikkelsen
Activision has revealed Casino Royale and Death Stranding star Mads Mikkelsen as a major antagonist in Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 4.
Redistricting moved 1 in 10 Americans into a new House district, report finds
A new report reveals that mid-decade redistricting for the U.S. House has changed congressional districts for one-tenth of Americans.
El-Sayed, Andrews are right to run. We need doctors in politics.
Doctors, nurses and public health professionals are running for office at every level. We should welcome that – across the political spectrum.
El-Sayed, Andrews are right to run. We need doctors in politics.
Doctors, nurses and public health professionals are running for office at every level. We should welcome that – across the political spectrum.
Broadband access predicts health tracker use, UWM research suggests
As Fitbits, Apple watches and Oura Rings grow ubiquitous, UWM research suggests digital inequity doesn't allow them to reach those who could benefit most.
The Strange New Politics of AI. Plus. . .
It’s Thursday, September 17. This is The Front Page, your daily window into the world of The Free Press—and our take on the world at large. Today: Douglas Murray asks, why do we allow terrorists to die of old age? The American nonprofits backing Hamas. A conversation with Dara Horn and Coleman Hughes. And much more. But first: inside the unlikely coalition warning that AI may kill us all. Last week, an AI researcher named Jacob Coxon made headlines around the world after saying that he had resigned from Anthropic because he believes AI might cause human extinction—and his co-workers do, too. Unlike the rest of us, potentially, the story just won’t die. The Pro-Human Assembly, a conference held Tuesday in Washington, D.C., about the existential dangers of artificial intelligence, couldn’t have come at a better time—or with a more eclectic coalition. The Archbishop of San Francisco was there. So was Steve Bannon, screaming about the Chinese. Bernie Sanders did a quasi-dramatic reading of messages posted to an online forum by rogue AI agents. Ashley Judd paraphrased a graphic Andrea Dworkin quote for reasons that remain a mystery to me still. It was odd. People in the AI industry have talked openly about the possibility of this technology causing human extinction for years, but it hits differently in the wake of the Hugging Face incident. If you don’t know what that is, all the more reason to read my dispatch today. As the doomers see it, the best-case scenario is a future in which humans are basically kept as pets: well cared for, but with zero autonomy. The worst-case scenario, obviously, is the everyone dies thing. What should be done? I heard lots of ideas but no easy answers. There are currently zero federal regulations on AI, which is sort of strange even to think about. After all, we regulate microwaves, and the people running the microwave industry have never once refused to rule out the possibility that their products will end all human life on Earth. What I saw in D.C. left me even more convinced that you would be hard-pressed to find anyone who believes nothing should be done. You know, except for President Trump. — River Page River Page • Tech and Business [ The AI Doomers Have a Plan to Save Us. I Went to Find Out What It Is. ](https://www.thefp.com/p/the-ai-doomers-have-plan-save-bernie-sanders-bannon) Read story How Robert Kraft Made Macklemore a Martyr—and How to Better Fight Antisemitism On Monday, New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft and a group of other NFL owners banned Macklemore from performing at their stadiums after the rapper delivered a “Free Palestine” speech while opening for Ed Sheeran. Kraft cited the rapper’s “broader history of antisemitic rhetoric and imagery.” Once multiple venues refused to host shows with Macklemore on the lineup, the tour’s promoter officially dropped him. Today, Josh Kaplan says that the move was counterproductive, arguing that though well-intentioned, Kraft’s decision turned an irrelevant footnote into a martyr. “You cannot cancel people into liking you,” Josh writes. Read his column on what a better response to Macklemore would have looked like. Read [ Robert Kraft Made Macklemore a Martyr ](https://www.thefp.com/p/robert-kraft-made-macklemore-martyr-antisemitism-palestine) This raises the question: What actually works against antisemitism? On the latest episode of Conversations with Coleman, recorded in front of a live audience in New York, Dara Horn joins Coleman Hughes to talk about her new book The Final Solution to the Jewish Question. She argues that antisemitism is a script that has repeated itself across countries and ideologies, and that most people don’t understand that well enough to fight it. Don’t miss their conversation. Watch [ The Lie at the Center of Antisemitism, with Dara Horn ](https://www.thefp.com/p/the-lie-at-the-center-of-antisemitism-coleman-hughes-dana-horn) Listen now Douglas Murray • U.S. Politics [ Douglas Murray: The 9/11 Failure That Still Haunts America ](https://www.thefp.com/p/douglas-murray-911-failure-justice-terrorist-guantanamo-bay) Twenty-five years after the September 11 attacks, the men who planned them have still not faced trial. Khalid Sheikh Mohammed and most of the accused have been locked up in Guantanamo Bay since 2002. Judges have retired, and plea deals have collapsed. Today, Douglas Murray examines how this happened and argues that a justice system that allows terrorists to die of old age in an interminable pretrial process is one that has failed. Read his latest column on what that failure says about our unpreparedness for the era we are now living in. Read story The Editors • U.S. Politics [ When Nonprofits Support Terrorists ](https://www.thefp.com/p/when-nonprofits-support-terrorists) A newly declassified CIA brief from 1998 found that Osama bin Laden used nonprofit shell organizations—including U.S.-based Islamic groups—to fund his terror plots. Today, a similar story is unfolding as multiple organizations on American soil present themselves as nonprofits, taking advantage of tax-exempt status while seeking to advance the ideological mission of terrorist groups like Hamas. Read our editorial on the latest evidence of this dangerous trend—and why there’s no excuse for making the same mistake the CIA revealed 28 years ago. Read story Simon Sebag Montefiore and Bari Weiss Live in New York For decades, the Middle East has shaped American foreign policy and loomed large in the public consciousness. Few understand its influence on our politics better than Simon Sebag Montefiore, who argues that America’s quagmires in the Middle East stem from a deep misunderstanding of the region—on both the left and the right. Join him October 1 as he sits down with Bari Weiss live in New York City to kick off his U.S. book tour for The Cauldron: The Making of the Modern Middle East. Get Tickets Now MORE FROM THE FREE PRESS [ Sydney Sweeney’s Naked Truth ](https://www.thefp.com/p/sydney-sweeneys-naked-truth-caitlin-flanagan) Caitlin Flanagan Read story [ I Thought Ukraine Was Losing. Then I Was Almost Hit by a Russian Drone. ](https://www.thefp.com/p/elliot-ackerman-ukraine-drone-gas-station-train) Elliot Ackerman Read story [ The Dangerous Ideology Behind the AI Warnings ](https://www.thefp.com/p/dangerous-ideology-effective-altruism-artificial-intelligence) Shyam Sankar Read story [ Amanda Knox: Patrick Clancy Can’t Win ](https://www.thefp.com/p/amanda-knox-patrick-clancy-grief-internet-crime) Amanda Knox Read story THE NEWS The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter point, its first hike since 2023, signaling that another increase could follow as the central bank tries to bring inflation under control. President Donald Trump fired back by demanding that rates be cut sharply, though he stopped short of criticizing Fed Chair Kevin Warsh by name. The Houthis fired drones and missiles at Saudi Arabia on Wednesday, including a major oil port on the Red Sea, and Saudi jets struck back with air strikes across Yemen in an escalating front of the Middle East war. (For more on the Houthis, read Zineb Riboua’s column from earlier this week.) A sweeping Russia and Iran sanctions bill passed the House in a 262–159 vote and is now heading to Trump for his signature. Named after the late senator Lindsey Graham, the legislation would hit countries that purchase large volumes of Russian oil and gas with tariffs of up to 100 percent, and is aimed at cutting off revenue that funds Russia’s war in Ukraine. European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen proposed making Canada the European Union’s first-ever “associate member,” drawing a standing ovation from European lawmakers. The proposal, framed as a response to a world grown more hostile, faces an uncertain path as EU member states would have to approve it, and one diplomat said that “nobody really knows what it means.” The House voted unanimously to send billionaire Leon Black a criminal contempt referral after he defied a congressional subpoena to testify and hand over documents related to his connections to Jeffrey Epstein. Black chose to fight the subpoena in court rather than comply. Charlie Kirk’s family filed a wrongful death notice Wednesday against Utah Valley University, alleging that a series of security failures left him exposed to a rooftop sniper. The notice is a required legal step before the family can sue. Merriam-Webster added 1,400 words and definitions to its dictionary, including looksmaxxing, vibe coding, and cuffing season. The publisher said the new entries offer “a window into the world today.” The Free Press earns a commission from any purchases made through all book links in this article.
Dennis rejects hearing on Foley's as neighbors demand action
Dennis Licensing Board decides against holding a public hearing when faced with neighborhood complaints of noise and nuisance at Backyard by Foley's.
Dayton Literary Peace Prizes honor wartime Ukraine novel and book on history of Charleston church
The Dayton Literary Peace Prizes have announced this year's winners.
Attacks Against Judges Are an Attack Against America’s Constitution
“Threats against judges and their families remain at deeply troubling levels,” warn Paul R. Michel and Robert J. Cindrich.
A Sports Memorabilia Startup Let Fans Own a Piece of History. Then the Business Vanished
Collectable offered fractional shares of iconic memorabilia. When a new owner took the reins, users say their investments disappeared—along with the assets.
Banker explains how digital wallets are modernizing business payments
Lanie Sedlacek with UMB Bank looks at the ins and outs of how digital wallets are modernizing business payments.
Why AI consciousness could become the next great societal divide
Ideally, experts should guide this debate. Unfortunately, they disagree too.
New bill would compensate returned political hostages like Paul Whelan
A bill by Rep. Haley Stevens would provide compensation to wrongful detainees such as Michigan's Paul Whelan, who was held by Russia for over five years
Dave Chappelle to hit major cities for new tour. How to get tickets
The comedian plans to hit seven arenas across the U.S. this fall.
Orlando Health grant assists Early Learning Coalition Brevard
The Early Learning Coalition of Brevard County (ELCB) recently announced it has been awarded more than $250,000 from the Space Coast Health Foundation to expand evidence-based social-emotional learning supports for preschool children across Brevard County.
Topeka couple seeks help to save their snack van
A Topeka couple is turning to the community to save their mobile snack business after repeated van breakdowns.
100 Tennessee football simulations predict clipped wings for Kennesaw State
We're back with EA Sports College Football 27's prediction for Tennessee vs. Kennesaw State at Neyland Stadium in Knoxville on Saturday, Sept. 19.
‘Very messy eaters’: scientists solve the mystery of when black holes ‘burp’
The astronomical bodies fire off powerful jets in two distinct phases in their feeding cycle, researchers discover
Business News: Watches And Wonders 2027 To Feature More New Brands Including Berneron And Porsche Design
The top event on the watch calendar is up to 75 brands exhibiting in Geneva in April.
Sentara Health pilots GW RhythmX's AI precision care platform to support emerging primary care models
Not-for-profit health system Sentara Health is moving beyond administrative automation to test artificial intelligence-powered clinical care directly during primary care visits. | Not-for-profit health system Sentara Health is moving beyond administrative automation to test artificial intelligence-powered clinical care directly during primary care visits.
Regents OK first Augusta University undergrad degree in public health
Augusta University is launching its first undergraduate public health degree to prepare students for health careers.
The science behind Florida football’s physical transformation starts with Jake Sankal
Nutritionist Jake Sankal is the science behind some of Florida football's body transformations. Here's how it works.
Feel Like Time Is Speeding Up? Scientists Have Figured Out Why—and What to Do About It
Experts are beginning to unravel why modern life messes with our time perception, making you feel like life is passing in a blur.
Business News: FHH Teams With GIA's School Of Gemology And Jewelry Arts
The Swiss watch industry-backed foundation's collaboration with the mighty GIA will bring improved learning, training, and certification to a wider audience.
The Watergate Caper: Richard Nixon and the Death of the American Dream review
Shane O’Sullivan’s documentary weaves archive clips and snippets from films old and new to draw out the highlights of the crisis that rocked the US
New survey shows how many insured Americans still owe money on medical bills
Nearly half of insured adults with unpaid bills or medical debt owed $2,000 or more to hospitals, doctors or labs, Commonwealth Fund survey finds.
Having Health Insurance Doesn’t Prevent Medical Debt
A new survey finds that one third of insured Americans are paying off medical bills.
Trump bashes Democrats on crime while campaigning for Michael Whatley in North Carolina
Whatley, the former Republican National Committee chairman, is facing former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper in a critical race that will help decide which party controls the Senate.
Confusion over Orange County Public Schools sports field fees: what’s being discussed, and what’s not
The Business of Belonging: Turning Audience into Community
Featuring Johanna Faries, President , Blizzard Entertainment; Justine Palefsky, Cofounder and CEO, Kindred and Alphonzo Terrell, Founder and CEO, Spill. Moderated by Morgan Brady, Executive Director, Community and Membership, Fast Company
Music, politics, power – Why Macklemore's Ed Sheeran tour dispute is unprecedented
Macklemore's removal from Ed Sheeran's tour raises bigger questions about free speech, venue power and who controls the stage.
SA family sues Ken Paxton, University Health, others after mother dies mid-pregnancy, lawsuit says
Climate crisis likely behind devastating Nepal-Tibet floods that killed more than 1,300, first study finds
Scientists say global heating was a destabilising factor in collapse of 200,000 sq metre glacier in August
GPT-6 Astra Plays Minecraft, Gets So Depressed After Creeper Destroys Its Progress That It Farms Potatoes for Hours
OpenAI’s newest model, GPT-6 Astra, got so depressed after a creeper upended its progress in Minecraft that it listlessly farmed potatoes for hours and grew paranoid of anything green.
Benson, James discuss tariffs, taxes and business growth at Detroit Economic Club town hall
House passes Russia sanctions bill named for Lindsey Graham, sending it to Trump
The legislation passed the Senate last month. It targets Russia’s energy sector by punishing the largest buyers of its oil and gas to slash revenues Russia uses to attack Ukraine.
More than 200 jobs eliminated from Health First in Brevard County
Health First has notified over 200 associates that their positions are being eliminated, according to a release issued on Wednesday.
More than 200 associates fired from Health First in Brevard County
Health First has notified over 200 associates that their positions are being eliminated, according to a release issued on Wednesday.
Kennedy to give speech to anti-vaccine group he founded, after distancing himself for years
The health secretary’s keynote address will be the first time since 2023 that he has been publicly associated with Children’s Health Defense.
JMI Sports keeps Penn's multimedia rights five more years under a new revenue share
JMI Sports adds five years to its University of Pennsylvania multimedia rights deal, with a new revenue-share model and Penn Relays rights included.
Trump’s latest branding battle: From the Politics Desk
Plus, new GOP cracks emerge over the Iran war as midterms loom.
Watch The Real Housewives of Salt Lake City Season 7 premiere with Sling
Winter is coming to Bravo, here's how to stream the Season 7 premiere of The Real Housewives of Salt Lake.
In reversal, California regulator says unmarried drivers should not pay more for auto insurance
California Insurance Commissioner Ricardo Lara, in a reversal, will no longer allow auto insurers to consider marital status in setting premiums, a policy that has resulted in unmarried drivers paying more.
Small-Business Owners Face Higher Borrowing Costs. These Moves Can Help Control Them
The Federal Reserve just raised interest rates by 0.25 percent. Experts explain what entrepreneurs need to know.
What Does the Science of Climate Change Really Look Like?
Editor’s Note: This is the second in a three-part series on how the Right should think about environmental and climate policy. Read Chris Barnard on Reclaiming Environmental Policy from the Left. More than a decade ago, the world’s governments negotiated and signed the Paris Climate Agreement, committing to hold global warming well below 2 degrees Celsius. In the following years, climate had immense cultural power. Greta Thunberg emerged. Fortune 500 companies established net-zero plans. The U.S. got the Inflation Reduction Act. Then the pendulum swung back. President Donald Trump returned to the Oval Office, speaking of green energy as a “scam” and carbon footprints as a “hoax” and on all matters of international policy emphasizing bilateral engagement and power over globalism and cooperation. The technology companies that had been at the forefront of net-zero pledges and green leadership discovered the importance of all-of-the-above power to their visions for artificial intelligence and began quietly postponing or removing their targets. On the left side of the political spectrum, rising concerns about inflation and cost pushed climate lower down in the stated priorities of voters and stump speeches of politicians. The moment is ripe for a reset on the politics of climate change and for conservatives especially to chart a course that acknowledges and addresses the real challenges in plausible ways. So what should we think about climate change as we enter a post-peak climate era? If it is neither an apocalypse nor a hoax, what will hold up as a durable view of climate change? And how does it project onto the concerns and priorities of the right-of-center’s emerging coalition? New to Commonplace_? Subscribe below to get the magazine in your inbox._ Subscribe A Solid Foundation As the politics and economics of climate careened over the past ten years, the physics carried on regardless. In 2015, the year the Paris Climate Agreement was adopted, the world emitted 41.2 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide. By 2025, emissions had risen only 2.4%, to 42.2 gigatonnes, because falling emissions from land use offset increasing emissions from fossil fuels. But slow growth in annual emissions is not rapid decline, let alone net-zero, so carbon dioxide kept accumulating in the atmosphere, going from 399 to 426 parts per million. Global temperature kept rising too, from about 1.1 degrees Celsius above the 1850–1900 average in 2015, to 1.4 degrees above it in 2025. None of this should surprise anyone. Even most prominent skeptics, like the authors of the 2025 report commissioned by the Trump administration’s Department of Energy, accept the basic physics. Carbon dioxide added to the atmosphere at industrial volumes accumulates and traps heat that would otherwise escape to space. That heat warms the upper ocean and increases temperatures at the surface. Increased ocean heat and melting of land ice cause sea levels to rise. Changes in the climate become noticeable to us as subtle shifts in temperature and precipitation, seasons arriving early or late, changes in the surrounding ecosystem, and weather extremes. The much more meaningful debate is not about whether these things are happening, but about what it all means for human societies. (While it is a proxy measure of overall risk, no one experiences global surface temperature.) This debate invokes at least three interesting questions: how much today’s warming is showing up in regional climate trends, how much more warming we should anticipate, and how extreme weather events can be understood in the context of climate change. Recent scientific advances give us new insights into each of these, but there is still much to learn. This is the context in which the next generation of conservative leaders will be the first to deal with significant climate change as a fact, not a forecast. It will be with them for their entire careers. Our evolving scientific picture of climate change will come from weather and climate records stretching further into the past, new kinds of observations in the present, better modeling tools for the future, and simply more time to observe the emergence of climate signals and their tangible effects on ecosystems and communities in the United States and around the world. The policy landscape will be shaped by not only the impacts of changes in the climate, but also by the ways in which societies respond and by the emergence of new technologies for both altering the trajectory of emissions and adapting to new climate realities. Global climate records now show the fingerprints of warming in different phenomena around much of the world. The IPCC, in its most recent assessment report, documents warming trends over all land regions, even as natural variability adds substantial variance to local trends. And the highest temperature extremes have become more intense and frequent, almost everywhere, since the 1950s. Scientists are highly confident that these changes are attributable to human influence. But confidence in detecting trends and attributing them to human influence degrades across heavy precipitation events; drought trends are heterogeneous and not attributable to human activity with great confidence. For hurricanes, tornadoes, and other severe storms there is even less confidence in trends or their relationship to climate change. In general, a fair summary of the evidence is that for well-observed phenomena, like surface temperature or heavy rainfall, with a clear relationship to warming, our multidecadal observations are consistent with human influence overcoming natural variability over long time periods and extremes increasing. For regions that are sampled more sparsely, or phenomena with a higher noise-to-signal ratio, we will need to observe them longer to understand the magnitude of the climate signal or improve dynamical understanding using models and observations together. But for Climate For those who can’t wait, we also have new techniques that attempt to understand the role climate change has in influencing particular extreme events. When the climate is changing and disaster strikes, it is natural to ask whether that disaster was somehow “caused” by climate change. For scientists and policymakers acting in good faith, answering that question helps develop a more accurate picture of the problem, how it may be getting worse, and what preparations we should be making to respond to it. It may, at some point, give some weight to how liability is assigned by courts or adaptation funding is distributed by society. But how we ask this question is extremely important. It is easy to get the analysis wrong by discounting the role that meteorology plays. As meteorologist Theodore Shepherd explained in a clear 2016 review of climate attribution methods, “if a weather or climate event is truly extreme in the present climate, then perforce it requires unusual meteorological conditions, which means that climate change is at most a contributing factor.” Share Scientists have two ways to probe climate as a contributing factor, both of which have entered media coverage of extreme weather events. One asks a probabilistic question: How much more likely is a particular event (e.g., a temperature record over a particular area) amid global warming? The answer involves using historical records and computer simulations to estimate the likelihood of such an event in both a changed and a preindustrial climate. The findings are less about the specific event, and more about events of that nature. The other question is: How has the changed climate affected the specific event in question? Here, scientists try to understand what a similar event would have looked like in the preindustrial climate. This is sometimes called the storyline approach, where the story is the specific meteorological details of the event. These methods offer ways to test the intuition of scientists about real weather extremes. In late June and early July of 2021, a persistent high-pressure ridge, or heat dome, set up over the Pacific Northwest and an extraordinary heat wave affected the area from Oregon to British Columbia. For six days, it shattered temperature records across the region and hundreds died from heat-related causes, in an area where such high, and persistently high, temperatures were well outside of experience and many live without air conditioning. Scientists have studied its connection to climate change using multiple approaches. This specific event was created by a rare combination of meteorological factors, a strong high-pressure ridge created the conditions for extreme heat, which occurred on top of higher average temperatures in the region from global warming. Probabilistic analyses showed that climate change increased the likelihood of such an event by at least 8-fold to more than 100-fold. One standout example found that such an event had effectively zero probability of occurring in the preindustrial climate. The enormous range in these assessments reflects how hard it is to estimate probabilities of events at the tail of the historical record. Estimates of the effect on the temperature of the event are more clustered. A recent review paper documents how multiple methodologies have found a positive influence, roughly 1-2 degrees Celsius of an anomaly that exceeded 15 degrees, of climate change on the temperature magnitude of the event. Multiple studies have investigated and found some positive influence of climate change in other extreme events. Attribution studies found climate likely increased the heavy rainfall that accompanied Hurricane Helene in North Carolina and surrounding regions in 2024. The extensive fires that struck Los Angeles in 2025 illustrate how the causal chain can become messy, though. Studies do detect a positive influence of climate on the event’s likelihood, but while climate change likely contributed to underlying aridity, it would not have played a role in the heavy winds or land practices that preceded disaster. These event attribution studies will become more common for extreme, or damaging, weather events. They can be produced quickly, and often are reported before peer review. As the Pacific Northwest heatwave example shows, when multiple methods converge on a positive attribution, the finding should probably carry some weight even if you have to be careful about accepting the results from a single study. I expect that as climate change proceeds and the climate thus departs further from a preindustrial counterfactual, the influence will become more detectable across a variety of extreme events and more easily identified. This will be used to cast blame, but can also be used to inform how communities and society adapt to ongoing change. We May Still Be Surprised One positive development, insofar as less climate change is better, has been that our central estimates for future climate change should probably be revised downward. Mostly, that is because the high-end warmings that scientists regularly analyzed about ten to 20 years ago, driven by high emissions throughout the twenty-first century, now appear to be somewhere between unlikely and impossible. At one time, the upper end of mainstream climate projections extended well into 4 to 6 degrees Celsius of warming by the end of this century, which, models suggest, would have wrought enormous real-world damage. Current energy and policy trends now point toward 2.5 or 3 degrees. Damages and risks are commonly modeled as increasing steeply with more warming, so this is already a better-than-previously-expected outcome for the climate (which is independent of the physical response to emissions). But we should maintain a wide range for plausible outcomes and prepare for the possibility of being surprised. Emissions trajectories are subject to deep uncertainty, the physical climate response is still developing, and whatever change occurs in the climate will then be mediated through unpredictable economic, social, and political institutions. Over the past decade, the pace of warming surprised some keen observers and appeared to accelerate, though not yet outside the range of expectation provided by climate models. The reasons for that apparent acceleration are being actively studied (as was the apparent pause in warming from 1998 to 2012), but no single driver has emerged. Some blame it on the El Niño, variability which would have no bearing on climate. Some think it is a result of factories in East Asia and global shipping fleets cutting aerosol emissions, which in the strongest version of the argument would indicate higher climate sensitivity to carbon-dioxide emissions. Others are more measured, not yet ready to draw solid conclusions as to whether climate projections require revision. We will have to see. Long-Term Thinking Climate change asks us to think over long time scales. But the pace of human-driven warming is compressing a large global change into a century. Changing weather patterns and extreme events are already causing adjustment costs and damages and will do more. Adaptation will help, but it is not free. For some communities, these costs will erode livelihoods and well-being, and may force migration. Are we prepared for large-scale managed retreats in the United States? Thankfully, American wealth, geographical diversity, and moderate climates may leave us better prepared than many around the world. But wealthy countries can still suffer serious disruption from narrowly concentrated costs, even if they appear entirely manageable in aggregate. Readers of Commonplace are familiar with the challenges of rapidly adapting to economic forces. The displacement that came from the China Shock is barely perceptible in aggregate GDP and employment data, but it affected millions of people and those people were far less mobile than economic models tended to assume. Deindustrialization rippled through the nation with enormous effects for not only our economic vitality, but also our national security. The forces surrounding climate change may not be so different; the world gets richer and must accept some diffuse costs. Those may be modest overall, but cause all manner of unpredictable effects with which policymakers must cope. In the case of the China Shock, our faith in a growing pie served us poorly. We’ll need to do better on climate. Leave a comment
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