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Poll: Most Americans think the U.S. has strayed from its founding principles
Most Americans believe the country has moved away from its founding principles as the nation prepares for its big 250th anniversary, a new PBS News/NPR/Marist poll finds. Eighty-three percent of U.S. adults feel America has strayed from the ideals the country was founded on two-and-a-half centuries ago. Among them, close to half of Americans — 47% — say the U.S. has "moved far away" from these principles, joined by 36% who said America has “moved
Citadel Says Credit Unions Can Compete for Bigger Business Relationships
Small business banking has entered a period of reassessment as business owners look beyond rates and fees toward financial partners that can combine
Guardians rookie Cooper Ingle tosses ball into stands early after losing outs count in loss to Rangers: 'I feel terrible'
Wilmington Small Business Coalition: Building Momentum in 2026 by Heather McWhorter
This article was contributed by Lydia Thomas, UNCW CIE Program Manager. North Carolina continues to be one of the best states to start a business and in 2025, Wilmington, North Carolina earned a spot on the GoDaddy list of the top 10 most entrepreneurial cities in the U.S. While many know Wilmington as small beach town with exceptional food, lots of coffee shops, and fun, vibrant summer activities, a closer look reveals a thriving innovation economy. You’ll find startups emerging across industries including software, healthtech, bluetech, and fintech. At the core of this entrepreneurial ecosystem is the Wilmington Small Business Coalition, with small business advocates and entrepreneur support organizations (ESOs) dedicated to helping founders grow, thrive, and succeed. “No Wrong Door” Established in 2016, the Coalition was designed to make it easier for individuals and small businesses to access resources most suited to their particular needs. The Coalition is designed to have a “no wrong door” entryway into the regional startup ecosystem. Whether you are exploring a new idea sketched on the back of a napkin or leading a more established, growth-stage company, Coalition members can help connect you with the programs, funding opportunities, mentors, and resources best suited to your needs. No matter where you are in your entrepreneurial journey, any Coalition organization can help point you in the right direction. Coalition Members and Leadership Coalition members include the UNCW Center for Innovation and Entrepreneurship (UNCW CIE), AARP, Brunswick Community College Small Business Center, Cape Fear Community College Small Business Center, Cape Fear Region SCORE, Genesis Block Foundation, Network for Entrepreneurs in Wilmington (NEW), Small Business & Technology Development Center (SBTDC), Greater Wilmington Chamber of Commerce, YWCA Living the Dream Center for Entrepreneurship, Carolina Community Impact Fund (CCI Fund), Partner Community Capital, 717mkt Office Collaborative, NC Biotech, and Institute NC. In May 2026, the Coalition held its leadership elections, resulting in the selection of a new executive team. The following officers were elected to serve two-year terms: Chair: Lydia Thomas, UNCW CIE Vice Chair: Diane Lantz, CCI Fund Secretary: Aariene Hansley, Genesis Block Foundation Treasurer: Gloria Monroe, SBTDC Vision for the Wilmington Small Business Coalition In 2026, the Wilmington Small Business Coalition continues its work as a collaborative network of organizations. By connecting programs, expertise, and services across partner organizations, entrepreneurs can more easily find the right support at the right time. Rather than operating in silos, the Coalition aims to function as a unified, cohesive system of support for small businesses and entrepreneurs, ensuring that resources and expertise across partner organizations are visible and accessible. Through stronger collaboration and shared pathways, entrepreneurs can move more seamlessly from idea to startup to growth. Looking to dive into the Wilmington entrepreneurial ecosystem? Connect with any of the Coalition partners to get started! Connect with CIE To learn more about CIE and our services, programs, and events, join the CIE newsletter. You can also follow us on social media: Instagram, Facebook, LinkedIn, TikTok, or YouTube. CIE’s website is uncw.edu/cie. Heather McWhorter is the director of the UNCW Center for Innovation and Entrepreneurship (CIE). CIE supports innovation-forward start-ups and helps to build a vibrant innovation economy for all in southeast NC.
Blake Lively is seeking $8.04 million in legal fees from Justin Baldoni amid 'It Ends With Us' settlement
Blake Lively is asking a judge to award her over $8 million in attorneys' fees and litigation costs for having defended herself against Justin Baldoni's now-dismissed defamation lawsuit.
America 250 road trip: The elemental power of sports in a desolate land
It's in the scent of a running stream and the feel of sandstone sashay. It's in the sound of a power-play goal and the taste of a ham sandwich. Connection is all around, even in the most unexpected places.
Want to Feel Less Stressed or Anxious? Science Says Just Fake a Smile
Research shows a 20-second fake smile 'improves physiology during acute stress, improves stress recover, and reduces illness over time.' Can't beat that.
'I used to feel physically sick
Former road racer Keith Amor admits he misses the thrill of competing at the Isle of Man TT, he tells the BBC Bikes podcast.
How the Supreme Court became a power that is reshaping America
Sometimes, these days, it feels like the Supreme Court is running the country.
People Share Their Most Embarrassing ER Visits And They're Unreal
"We went to the ER, and the nurse said, 'We have no protocol for a microwaved arm... let me see what Google says.'"
Sewer overflow from Haverhill leaves businesses scrambling as several Massachusetts beaches close
Weston Port, three-star LB, commits to Michigan football
Three-star linebacker Weston Port committed to U-M in the class of 2027 on Monday, June 29.
Netflix and Superheroes Are Having a Rough Stretch on Streaming....
(Welcome to my weekly streaming ratings report, the single best guide to what’s popular in streaming TV and what isn’t. I’m the Entertainment Strategy Guy, a former streaming executive who now analyzes business strategy in the entertainment industry. If you were forwarded this email, please subscribe to get these insights each week.) I have a quick prediction before we start today’s article: You might see this data in future news articles. Not my specific charts or analysis, but the core trend I’ve been monitoring—Netflix is having a lackluster Q2—will become inescapable. Often, folks want to know “What does the data say?” Well, that’s what it says. I haven’t seen this analysis hit the trades really yet, but I have a feeling some other outlets are going to start making this case soon. Remember, you read it here first. You probably have read about the problems facing superhero films at the box office this weekend. Well, this week, I explore whether superheroes are dying on TV as well! And the data says: definitely maybe! We have a lot to cover in today’s Streaming Ratings Report, which covers the two weeks of 18-May and 25-May. Today, I’m just looking at TV, like Netflix’s disappointing Q2, superhero shows underwhelming, a few TV shows dropping off the charts, The Pitt finally ending its epic run on the viewership charts (and whether “view counts” change its status as one of the biggest shows of all time), all the flops, bombs and misses, and a whole lot more. Tomorrow, I’ve got a great rundown of the film side of things. Let’s dive right in! (Reminder: The streaming ratings report focuses on the U.S. market and compiles data from Nielsen’s weekly top ten viewership ranks, Luminate’s Top Ten Data, Showlabs, TV Time trend data, Samba TV household viewership, company datecdotes, Netflix hours viewed data, Google Trends, and IMDb to determine the most popular content. While most data points are current, Nielsen’s data covers the weeks of May 18th to May 31st, 2026. You can find a link to my terminology here.) Subscribe Television - Netflix’s Q2 Slump Continues Having analyzed streaming ratings for going on half a decade, I have learned to trust my gut, but I’m always relieved when I can find actual data to back it up. For example, after a string of very popular shows like Stranger Things, Bridgerton, The Lincoln Lawyer and The Night Agent came out, week after week, in January and February, my gut wondered if Netflix had enough new and returning TV shows to sustain them throughout the year. Since then, Netflix’s post-March slate of shows has not impressed me. This week seemed to feature a potential new hit, but then, like a classic Duffer Bros. TV show, there was a twist. I speak of The Boroughs, Netflix’s latest (and last) Duffer Bros. produced show. The pitch is “Stranger Things with older actors”. And it topped the Nielsen charts: With just two weeks of viewership, The Boroughs would have been a top 25 debut show last year: But here’s the twist: Netflix has already cancelled The Boroughs! What happened? Likely a few things. First, the show didn’t do as well globally as it did in the US. As What’s on Netflix showed, it lagged behind several other shows that got cancelled. Second, its completion rate was likely low; after an initial burst of interest, it quickly dropped off on the Samba TV and Luminate charts. Third, the Duffer Bros. left Netflix for Paramount, and that may have factored into Netflix’s decision here. (Though I tend to believe that if a show is doing well, Netflix would have kept greenlighting seasons.) Still, just because I can explain why Netflix may have cancelled this show doesn’t mean I’m justifying it. In particular, as I’ve noted before, Netflix is losing a lot of their bigger shows as they reach their natural ends, and they need to replace those shows. This show had the hallmarks of a big new genre show, and it’s their biggest hit of the last few months (in the US at least), but now it’s done. Netflix’s other show this week—The Four Seasons, the second season of the “hit” show from last year—definitely disappointed. Its sophomore season had about half the viewership of the first, only 12.7 million hours. It also only had a two week run on Samba TV, and its numbers were all down on Luminate too. In other words, even with two successes, the Q2 slump for Netflix looks real: I could add to the list of disappointments: Both Lord of the Files and Man on Fire had short runs on the Nielsen charts. Running Point’s sophomore season also opened to about half its viewership, similar to The Four Seasons. A Good Girl’s Guide to Murder’s second season—see below—didn’t even make any of the three viewership charts I track, unlike the first season. Netflix is absolutely having a dismal second three months of 2026. If this Nielsen data is any indication, and I think it is, I think this will show up in Netflix’s engagement report, and maybe even their financial outcomes. And the rest of June doesn’t look much better. We have two hit shows coming back—Sweet Magnolias, one of their quietest big shows, and Avatar: The Last Airbender, a big hit for them in 2024—but the other big swings are limited series crime thrillers i.e. no future season potential. Like I said above, sometimes when I uncover a juicy nugget like this, other outlets end up writing very similar articles mimicking the data without credit. We’ll see if that happens this time! Share Television - The State of Superhero Shows on Streaming When I first heard the pitch for Spider-Noir—a Sony TV show on Prime Video that binge-released eight episodes first on MGM+ then on Prime Video two days later—I had my doubts. It’s a live-action Spider-Man show set in the 1930s, starring Nicholas Cage, based on a cameo of a character in Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse. No, seriously, that’s the pitch. That could either go terrifically well or horribly wrong. Great because, Spider-Man. He’s the biggest superhero we have. I’ve seen tracking numbers that put the new _Spider-Man: Brand New Da_y as the blockbuster of the year and initial pre-sales back that up. And yet this Spider-Noir pitch feels very esoteric. (Also, the eight-episode binge release feels very “Amazon copying Netflix” again.) So what’s the data say? And what does this say about the future of superhero shows?
A Diet and Workout Plan to Hit Weight-Loss Goals By the End of 2026
A dietitian and personal trainer share the simple plan they give clients who want to lose weight, build strength and feel more energized by the end of the year.
'They’re like my sisters now': Boutique comforts women post-surgery
While hospitals can feel very clinical, there's a shop that offers products for women post-surgery with kind, friendly faces to provide support.
How The Nitro Bar became a booming coffee business
As part of the series Women Mean Business, NBC News' Savannah Sellers spoke with The Nitro Bar co-founder Audrey Finocchiaro about building a fast-growing coffee brand, expanding to New York City, and turning a bold idea into a thriving business.
Think You Should Wait Before Drinking Your First Cup of Coffee? Science Says There's No Need (or Benefit)
Research shows when you drink your first cup of coffee has no impact on afternoon energy levels. Or hydration. Or anything, aside from how you like to start your day.
Title IX in the Age of House, NIL and Cash-Strapped Universities
Title IX just had its 54th anniversary, but despite gains for some women in the NIL era, gender equity doesn't feel any closer in college sports.
Clients push consultants to adopt outcome-based fees to share in risk
Consulting giants like BCG and Accenture are shifting from fixed rates to outcome-based fees as clients push them to share the risk of AI integration.
Virginians are feeling the effects of spiking health insurance premiums
Nearly 1 in 5 people using the state exchange has dropped coverage since January.
Quality coffee, Ojibwe bonds build a business on the Fond du Lac Reservation in NE Minnesota
At a roadside kiosk on the reservation, Jackson Ripley and his family blend great coffee and Ojibwe culture together with a bit of magic. In the process, they’ve built new community ties, and they’re hoping to do more.
Building a culture of connection for physicians
At Sanford Health, strong relationships, listening and leadership support help physicians feel connected and better equipped to thrive.
Opinion: Bring back respect in politics
No matter your party or political persuasion, it is undeniable that American politics has taken on a tenor of anger and pessimism. This national mood has made American politics atoxic stew of rage, discontentment and despair. Many Americans don’t feel that the reforms they would like to see in their government are possible. These...
First ever dinosaur found in Antarctica described for science
Dinosaur backbone is the first found on the icy continent, and belongs to a titanosaur around 6–7 meters in length.
New Ballard coffee shop burglarized two months into business
Highland Espresso is recovering after thieves broke in and stole thousands of dollars worth of equipment early Thursday morning.
Couple retired to Costa Rica with 2 sons; bought a $1.6 million house
"We fill every day. There's really not a lot of downtime, yet we never feel rushed or pushed or stressed," Andrew Rappaport told BI about life in Costa Rica.
Health insurers are looking for MAHA wins
The companies are offering benefits aimed at appealing to Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and his Make America Healthy Again movement.
Scratching bug bites feels good – but science says don’t do it
You’ve likely heard it since childhood: Don’t scratch that bug bite or rash, you’ll make it worse. But why would something that feels so good be bad?
I started using Projects in Google Drive; it instantly boosted my productivity
Google Drive finally feels smarter
Seattle's data center moratorium: symbolic politics, real costs
With its data center moratorium, Seattle just put the whole city on the wrong side of the new digital divide — and its poorest residents will feel it most.
Govee's smart nugget ice maker makes every iced drink feel like a luxury
For some people, the ice in a beverage is almost as important as the drink itself. That's the audience Govee had in mind when designing its latest ice
Men's Health Athleticism Trailer
Men's Health Athleticism Trailer
What to Do in Houston If You're Here for Business (2026)
Make the most of your work trip with these restaurants, bars, coffee shops, and downtime destinations.
New packaging for Apple's A20 Pro chip should keep the iPhone 18 Pro series feeling cool
With everyone worried about chips and phones heating up, processors are getting improved thermal management tools.
Michael Olise reveals the reason behind his trademark lackluster celebrations
Michael Olise is not know for his big celebrations.
NH businesses feel impact of low summer hiring rates
A new report from the New Hampshire Fiscal Policy Institute shows summer hiring rates are lower than previous years in the Granite State, and two businesses on Hampton Beach are feeling the effects.
Texas A&M’s Marcel Reed impresses in Air‑It‑Out exhibition
Marcel Reed delivered one of the top highlights at the Manning Passing Academy, dropping a perfect deep ball during the Air‑It‑Out exhibition.
A Giant Scorpion the Size of a Coffee Table Is Forcing Scientists To Rethink Evolution
Praearcturus gigas was a meter-long Devonian scorpion whose size may reflect a world with few large competitors rather than high oxygen alone.
Scratching that bug bite might feel good at first but science explains why it's a bad idea
You've likely heard it since childhood: Don't scratch that bug bite or rash, you'll make it worse. But why would something that feels so good be bad?
Vancouver turns its Science World museum into a giant 17-story soccer ball for the World Cup
It started with a whimsical idea. Why not transform the landmark Science World museum in downtown Vancouver, the geodesic dome-topped building not far from BC Place stadium, into a gigantic 17-story soccer ball for the World Cup?
Scientists finally explain why these wild boars stay more radioactive than Chernobyl's wolves - Futura-Sciences
What explains this surprising finding? The answer appears to be a complex mix of history, ecology, and diet. Bavaria’s wild boars mainly feed on underground fungi that absorbed radioactive fallout from both the notorious Chernobyl disaster and Cold War-era nuclear testing. Unlike wolves, which sit higher on the food chain...
Colby Parkinson is extremely valuable to the Rams offense
Analysts around the league are clamoring for him, but they’re almost certainly not going to pry him away from L.A.
Scratching that bug bite might feel good at first but science explains why it's a bad idea
Now researchers better understand why even a mildly annoying itch could put you on an itch-and-scratch cycle if you give in.
Scratching that bug bite might feel good at first but science explains why it's a bad idea
For the summer itchiness of bug bites and poison ivy, dermatologists recommend hydrocortisone cream, calamine lotion or oatmeal baths.
Dear Abby | Mom's rekindling with abusive father feels like a betrayal
Dear Abby: I am estranged from my father and have been since I was 12. (I'm currently 26.) He was emotionally, psychologically and physically abusive to me, and cutting ties
What scientists discovered about coffee grounds will transform construction industry - Futura-Sciences
At the start of 2024, a study published several months ago is once again drawing attention. Scientists at RMIT University in Australia have identified an unexpected use for spent coffee grounds, opening the door to a promising solution for both the construction sector and organic waste management. From coffee waste...
Scratching a bug bite feels good but science says it’s a bad idea
Researchers have gained a better understanding of why we have an itch to scratch.
Scratching that bug bite might feel good at first but science explains why it's a bad idea
You scratched that bug bite and now it's a big itchier bump. Some science explains why scratching really can make things worse, even if you don't break the skin. University of Pittsburgh researchers put tiny “cones of shame” onto mice to help unravel what happens on a cellular level when an itch ...
Scratching that bug bite might feel good at first but science explains why it’s a bad idea
You scratched that bug bite and now it's a big itchier bump.
Scratching that bug bite might feel good at first but science explains why it’s a bad idea
WASHINGTON (AP) — You’ve likely heard it since childhood: Don’t scratch that bug bite or rash, you’ll make it worse. But why would something that feels so good be bad? A lot of things can cause itc…
Scratching that bug bite might feel good at first but science explains why it's a bad idea
You scratched that bug bite and now it's a big itchier bump. Some science explains why scratching really can make things worse, even if you don't break the skin. University
Scratching that bug bite might feel good at first but science explains why it's a bad idea
You’ve likely heard it since childhood: Don’t scratch that bug bite or rash, you’ll make it worse. A lot of things can cause itchiness, sometimes serious diseases. Whatever the cause, doctors have l...
Driving A New Ford Mustang Mach-E After 5 Years Feels So Much Better
The 2026 Ford Mustang Mach-E isn't drastically different from its original 2021 version, but small improvements and a price dip make it a better EV purchase.
That advancing to the knockout stage feeling 🇨🇻
That advancing to the knockout stage feeling 🇨🇻
Piccadilly Jackson Medical Mall location closing after more than 56 years in business
After more than 56 years in business, the Piccadilly restaurant located in the Jackson Medical Mall is closing.
Burglars steal from Grand Forks business, cancer fundraiser
The owner of An Elegant Affair says burglars stole merchandise, cash and donations collected for an employee battling cancer.
140 Kauai Coffee jobs saved through new land lease agreement
The lease agreement between Kauai Coffee’s parent company, Massimo Zanetti Beverage Group, and landowner Brue Baukol Capital Partners was finalized after nearly two years of negotiations
House Republican reacts to changing politics under Trump
Republican Rep. Dusty Johnson spoke to NBC News' Garrett Haake about his recent loss in the primary to become the governor of South Dakota, and how he feels about the current political environment under President Trump.
50 Cool Charts That Will Make You So Much Smarter
Reading this is like going to college in five minutes.
‘Under the Radar’ Cowboys Free Agent Predicted for Major Payday
Bleacher Report predicts Dallas Cowboys CB Cobie Durant could land a major payday in 2027 with a standout season. The post ‘Under the Radar’ Cowboys Free Agent Predicted for Major Payday appeared first on HEAVY.
Why the Amex Business Gold is my go-to card for business expenses
The Amex Business Gold makes earning rewards simple with automatic bonus categories, flexible Membership Rewards points and statement credits that help offset its annual fee.
New feed trailer expands feed delivery opportunities
Delivery of bulk feed produced at the Iowa State University Kent Feed Mill and Grain Science Complex to Iowa State’s animal science farms is now possible, thanks to a new high-tech feed trailer.
Can We Engineer Being on the Same Wavelength with Others? Research Offers a Cautious “Yes”
Analysis shows science can help us become synchronized over time—and feel more connected to others in the process
Why Your Nighttime Dreams Are So Weird—Science Finally Has the Answer - Futura-Sciences
The Secret Life of Dreams: Not Just Random Nonsense Remember the dream you had last night? Maybe you’re left with just a trace—a sweet feeling, maybe, or a strange discomfort. But there’s rarely a story you could actually retell. Because, in the end, a dream is a deeply personal experience....
Music Legend Axes Shows After Onstage Health Scare
Lionel Richie was hospitalized on the opening night of his tour with Earth, Wind & Fire after feeling dizzy on-stage.
Scientists Turn Wet Coffee Grounds Into Coal-Like Fuel in Just 90 Seconds
A new process skips energy-intensive drying for recycling coffee waste.
Wren Baker on Competing in College Sports
WVU AD Wren Baker on competing in college sports, Pat McAfee's value, private equity, and CFP expansion.
Seattle ups its payout for vandalized small businesses. Is it enough?
For many businesses, the reimbursement "could be the difference between someone making their rent or not, just because this is such a tough time,” said Analog Coffee's owner.
What New York’s primary upheaval means for Democrats: Join Friday’s Whole Hog
Democrats are still feeling the political aftershocks of New York’s primaries on Tuesday night, including New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani-backed victories. What could it signal for the party? Pl…
How to get free Windows 10 security patches until October 2027 - and avoid the $30 fee
Don't want to pay to keep Windows 10 security updates? Microsoft has several workarounds, with the best deal for European users.
Scientists stunned by signs of ancient life in a place no one expected
Scientists exploring ancient seafloor rocks in Morocco discovered mysterious wrinkle patterns where they were never expected to occur. These structures are normally linked to microbial mats in shallow, sunlit waters, yet the rocks formed hundreds of feet below the surface in darkness. Evidence indicates that chemosynthetic microbes created the wrinkles, revealing that deep-ocean microbial ecosystems may have been more widespread than previously thought.
Battlefield 6 is altering its long-range gunplay to feel more like Battlefield 4
In just a few short days, Battlefield 6's combat encounters could potentially play out a lot differently from the way they do today.
‘The Hot Zone’ led me to work with Ebola patients. Now I have mixed feelings about the book
“The reality of Ebola is simultaneously less sensational and far more challenging than most people imagine,” writes Krutika Kuppalli.
Why Michelle Pfeiffer left her 'Grease 2' audition feeling 'so humiliated'
On the anniversary of 'Grease 2,' take a look back at what Michelle Pfeiffer said about her audition. It was humiliating.
World Cup 2026: Christian Pulisic won't start for USMNT's group stage finale against Türkiye
Monkey Business: Wild rhesus macaque spotted at Mount Dora hotel
A wild rhesus macaque was spotted at the historic Lakeside Inn in Mount Dora, Florida, spending about 45 minutes roaming the property and attracting attention from guests and staff. The hotel and local businesses responded with humorous, monkey-themed social media content, engaging the community. Wildlife officials cautioned the public not to approach or feed wild monkeys due to potential health risks and encouraged reporting sightings to authorities. The monkey has not returned to the hotel but has been seen elsewhere in downtown Mount Dora.
Local entrepreneurs, aspiring business owners gain connections, resources at 4th annual expo
Small business owners and aspiring entrepreneurs convened in Downtown Memphis to make connections and grow Thursday morning at the 2026 Small Business Expo.
Making Our Own Luck
We are cross-posting a piece that former NIH official Kris Willis wrote for Macroscience. Kris is now the President and Founder of the Woodley Park Institute, for which I’m a board member. Picking winners or hedging bets? Federal science agencies have long wrestled with the question of how to ensure their billions of dollars of grants and contracts result in maximum benefits for Americans. On the surface, it might seem that a goal-oriented, interventionist style of management would be the best policy: prioritize our most pressing problems and distribute funding accordingly.This top-down strategy creates a unique hazard, though: bad choices can send resources in the wrong direction, resulting in slow progress that impedes the delivery of tangible benefits to citizens. Moreover, if decision makers pursue an applied advance when the underlying scientific principles remain poorly understood, they risk costly failures and a loss of support for the research enterprise at large. Examples include Nixon’s 1971 War on Cancer, undertaken on the premise that a cure could be achieved in less than a decade, the drive to build an operational commercial fusion plant by the mid-1990s, and the National Plan to Address Alzheimer’s Disease, which failed to produce the effective treatments and prevention strategies promised by 2025. The contrasting laissez-faire approach is to hedge your bets. If the path to an advance is impossible to predict, then the wisest choice might be to distribute funding to as widely as possible. The main risk of this strategy is that spreading funding thinly may limit the resources available to the most promising research, resulting in the same negative outcomes as the interventionist approach: limited support for the most promising topics, slow progress, and delayed returns. In reality, at science agencies like the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health, program managers navigate between these two extremes, setting some funds aside to target high-priority areas and using the rest to cover the widest possible range of meritorious proposals. This middle path seems like the most rational way to proceed, but it still requires making choices. How much should be set aside for high priority topics? What should those topics be? How should we define merit? Expert opinion can provide a helpful guide, but leading experts can have remarkably different opinions about what matters and what should be prioritized. Moreover, experts and administrators alike can be risk averse, giving an edge to high-profile, well-established concepts. What’s really needed is a data-driven framework to help guide decision-making, one that doesn’t simply repackage prestige or incumbency. Recognizing breakthroughs years in advance Many breakthroughs fail to attract funding or recognition at the earliest stages of development. Katalin Karikó, for example, spent years struggling to win grants for work on mRNA that would eventually win her and Drew Weissman a Nobel Prize. Similar stories can be told about Jim Allison’s groundbreaking studies leading to the development of cancer immunotherapy, Stan Pruisner’s demonstration that prions can self-replicate without DNA, or Robin Warren and Barry Marshall’s proof that Helicobacter pylori, not stress, causes ulcers. Yet at some point, the scientific community recognizes and responds to transformative breakthroughs like these. How does that change happen? And what if science funders could identify the areas that are on the cusp of a breakthrough? Those questions led my collaborators and me to study how scientists responded to past breakthroughs. Based on patterns in that data, we developed a means of predicting future breakthroughs, using biomedicine as a proof of concept. It’s worth taking a moment to describe how our approach works. Briefly, our prediction process begins by grouping the 18 million or so peer-reviewed papers in PubMed, the authoritative database of biomedical research, into roughly 50,000 unique topics. A small subset of these topics are so widely acclaimed as breakthroughs that they have been recognized with a major prize like a Nobel or a Lasker Award. We theorized that studying the development of these outliers over time, especially before they gained acclaim, was the key to identifying future instances of them. After defining topics, we chose 21 representative breakthroughs and asked what they looked like before they won prestigious prizes. To answer that question, we re-ran our topic-mapping algorithm repeatedly, winding back the clock one year each time, stringing together the years to follow the progress of each field as it grew and advanced. We found that in each case, the years leading up to a discovery followed a pattern: a burst of papers on a new, rapidly evolving topic, many of which quickly became influential. These characteristics—the percent of papers that are new, the percentage of papers that are brought in from other topics, and the influence of each individual paper—can all be measured separately for any given topic. Together, they act as a predictive signal that is detectable an average of five years before a transformative discovery is made, and up to thirty years before the discovery receives a major prize. Scanning the current research landscape for topics that display this signal allows us to predict what work will likely produce a future breakthrough. Each year we analyzed includes four or five signals, a number that appears to have remained constant across a twenty year time frame. In their classic work on the sociology of science, Bruno Latour and Steve Woolgar established that the desire to participate in a major discovery is an important motivator for scientists as they consider whether they should take up (or abandon) a research problem. Although further work is needed, the simplest explanation for our results is that this behavior is widespread enough to detect at scale. A foundational advance, or something like it, draws the attention of scientists and causes them to change the direction of their research. They vote with their feet, staking their own reputation and careers by publishing on and citing the new idea. That upswell of interest is the foundation of our breakthrough signal. What kind of research does our model identify as a breakthrough? After building a model based on the patterns in our 21 preselected breakthroughs, we tested it by identifying all early signals of discovery from 1994 through 1997. Of the 18 signals we found in that time period, 17 can be traced forward in time to a breakthrough. Examples include super-resolution fluorescence microscopy (see the image above), the directed evolution of proteins and enzymes (Chemistry Nobel, 2018), and sequencing the human genome (National Medal of Science, 2008). The discovery of the role of leptin signaling in obesity is a particularly interesting case study. Around 1950, scientists noticed the existence of a type of lab mouse that suffered from a unique inherited form of obesity. When given the freedom to choose their own diet, these mice ate more than normal and preferred food that was high in fat. Researchers had few clues as to why the animals overate; early experiments pointed to the existence of a soluble ob factor found circulating in the bloodstream that regulated appetite, but its identity was unknown. In 1994, Jeffrey Friedman and colleagues identified and sequenced the ob gene, noting that the protein it encoded appeared to fit the profile of a circulating factor. A year later, a trio of high-profile publications demonstrated that ob was a hormone that regulated body weight and fat deposition by regulating appetite. One of these was co-authored by Friedman, who christened it leptin from the ancient Greek word for thin. Using our model, the data from 1996 make it clear this advance would become a breakthrough. Scientists had flocked to study the biology of the new hormone, generating the flurry of new papers and citations required to produce a signal. One of these demonstrated that serum leptin concentrations reflected the amount of adipose tissue in the human body, providing clinical validation of the earlier mouse studies. Before the identification of leptin, scientists were unable to point to a specific molecule that controlled appetite and adiposity, so that it was impossible to rule out non-physiological causes of obesity; its characterization fundamentally changed our concept of weight gain. In 2010, Friedman and fellow pioneer Douglas Coleman were awarded a Lasker for the discovery. Our work also identifies breakthroughs in clinical practice and behavioral and social sciences, even though these areas are less likely to draw the attention of major prize committees. One example that falls into this category is the introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair, a minimally invasive surgical procedure for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm, a leading cause of death among Americans over the age of 65. Relative to the previous standard of care, it reduces in-hospital mortality by almost four-fold. In 2017, Timothy Chuter received the American College of Surgeons’ prestigious Jacobsen Innovation award for his multiple refinements to the technique. Another under-recognized breakthrough identified by our model is the development of standardized survey instruments to assess the quality of life for HIV+ patients. The antiretroviral cocktails introduced in the mid-1990s reduced AIDS mortality, but treatment came with serious side effects. The new evaluations showed that patients whose disease progressed had worse physical functioning than Americans with other chronic diseases, while those who were asymptomatic maintained a health-related quality of life on par with the overall US population. This evidence made it possible for patients and activists to argue that even in the absence of a total cure, and in spite of the side effects, alleviation of symptoms was a worthwhile priority for clinicians. My colleagues and I have failed to identify any significant recognition for the physicians and health policy experts who pioneered this advance, although in 2016, researchers called for the World Health Organization to set targets for good health-related quality of life as part of its framework to end the AIDS pandemic. From forecasting to funding How should science funders use our predictions? Any serious discussion of what we should do with this new capability needs to begin with an understanding of its limitations. We can’t (and shouldn’t) invest all of our resources in the small number of topics predicted to produce breakthroughs. Innovative new fields are born from existing ones; they rarely arise de novo. If funders don’t maintain a diverse portfolio, the breakthroughs of tomorrow will have no antecedents. Think of this as eating the seed corn, or killing the goose that lays the golden egg. There are also multiple goals of funding beyond basic scientific discovery, including translating discoveries into clinical practice, developing new technologies, supporting economic development, and training new scientists. The investments needed to accomplish these goals are likely different from those required to support emerging breakthroughs. Finally, we must be aware that we may not capture every instance of a breakthrough. The concept is fuzzy, and not every significant discovery is recognized with a major award. Further, breakthroughs are rare, meaning that our dataset is, by necessity, small. This makes formal estimates of accuracy challenging. Although our overall success rate appears to be high, any one signal may turn out to be a false positive. We found one apparent example: the development of the third generation COX-2 inhibitors, Vioxx and Celebrex, which were much celebrated in the early 2000s as effective but non-addictive pain relievers, meets all the algorithmic criteria of a breakthrough. Five years after it received FDA approval, researchers demonstrated that Vioxx was associated with serious cardiovascular complications, and the manufacturer voluntarily pulled the drug from the market. Celebrex remains available, although like other NSAIDs, it carries an FDA warning for increased cardiovascular risk. Decision makers who were overly focused on the breakthrough potential of this research might have wasted substantial resources nurturing an area that ultimately proved to be a failure—but so would those who relied on expert opinion at the time. That said, the potential benefits of funding the next mRNA vaccine or cancer immunotherapy years earlier than we might have are large. When we can’t assume the outcome of an action, it’s worth conducting an experiment. Can targeted support for areas that are poised to produce a breakthrough increase the return on scientific investment without cannibalizing future advances? With the necessary administrative infrastructure in place, conducting this experiment would be straightforward. First, identify all the breakthrough signals between 2018 and 2023, select half at random, and commit to a decade of investment. For biomedicine, a six year window should yield about 30 topics with the potential to produce a breakthrough. Providing strong support to half of these might be accomplished for $300 million a year. That’s roughly half of the recent annual budget of the NIH Common Fund or around 20% of the fiscal year 2025 budget for ARPA-H. After five years, then again at ten, compare to see which group — the one that was actively managed, or the control — produced more breakthroughs, and on what timescale. Although we used biomedicine as an example, the same experiment could just as well be run for physics, materials science, or any other discipline. Any attempt to undertake such an experiment should keep three points top of mind. First, we can predict the topic of future breakthroughs, but the people and vision for how to move the work forward are still important. In practice, this means success requires active program managers with the expertise to develop the science and the authority to do so, including by recruiting investigators. Second, we would be wise to learn from the failures of past attempts to fund transformative research. High among these are funding modestly repackaged work, confusing the genuinely novel with the merely unfamiliar, and relying too much on incumbent investigators. All of these risks can be mitigated by thoroughly and intelligently integrating high quality data into portfolio management. Finally, we need to have patience. Even with strong funding support, producing a breakthrough takes time. If supporting breakthroughs is the best way to nurture the birth of new fields, we also need to accurately describe and properly manage the other two stages, so that we invest wisely throughout the productive lifetime of ideas and divest once they reach the point of diminishing returns. We would benefit from more study of all of these phases, especially the transition from one to another. More research could answer questions like: When does a breakthrough become an established field? How do the availability of funding, the size and characteristics of the available workforce, and the accumulation of evidence that disagrees with prevailing models affect a field’s decline? Exactly how do old ideas give birth to new ones, and can we speed up the process? The more we understand about the dynamics of scientific progress, the better we can maximize the odds that our curiosity leads to results. I’d call that finding a way to make our own luck.
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