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Unisun Sports Commences, Kicking Off 2026-27 Season
Unisun Sports, the groundbreaking strategic alliance between the Atlantic Sun Conference (ASUN) and the United Athletic Conference (UAC), has officially commenced as of July 1, 2026. Unisun Sports will serve both conferences, designed to significantly enhance operational efficiency, foster deeper collaboration, and drive innovation across both NCAA Division I organizations.
The best new science-fiction novels published in July 2026
Sci-fi fans can enjoy a new Red Dwarf novel – the first for 30 years – this month, as well as sci-fi horror from Paul Tremblay and a journey to Planet Happy with Riley August
Rockets agree to sign veteran shooter Bogdan Bogdanović
In the opening hours of the NBA’s 2026 free agency window, the Rockets agreed to a one-year contract with veteran sharpshooter Bogdan Bogdanović.
An enormous explosion has occurred in deep space – and scientists caught it within minutes of the detonation | BBC Sky at Night Magazine
Using the Submillimeter Array observatory on Maunakea, Hawaii, astronomers zoomed in on a gamma‑ray burst within minutes of its discovery.
Allen wins Republican primary for attorney general
Michael Allen has defeated David Willson in the Republican primary for attorney general, according to The Associated Press. Allen received just over 60% of the vote, according to the secretary of state’s website. Allen will face Democrat Jena Griswold in November. Allen, the district attorney for the 4th Judicial District, brings more than two decades […]
Wilmington Small Business Coalition: Building Momentum in 2026 by Heather McWhorter
This article was contributed by Lydia Thomas, UNCW CIE Program Manager. North Carolina continues to be one of the best states to start a business and in 2025, Wilmington, North Carolina earned a spot on the GoDaddy list of the top 10 most entrepreneurial cities in the U.S. While many know Wilmington as small beach town with exceptional food, lots of coffee shops, and fun, vibrant summer activities, a closer look reveals a thriving innovation economy. You’ll find startups emerging across industries including software, healthtech, bluetech, and fintech. At the core of this entrepreneurial ecosystem is the Wilmington Small Business Coalition, with small business advocates and entrepreneur support organizations (ESOs) dedicated to helping founders grow, thrive, and succeed. “No Wrong Door” Established in 2016, the Coalition was designed to make it easier for individuals and small businesses to access resources most suited to their particular needs. The Coalition is designed to have a “no wrong door” entryway into the regional startup ecosystem. Whether you are exploring a new idea sketched on the back of a napkin or leading a more established, growth-stage company, Coalition members can help connect you with the programs, funding opportunities, mentors, and resources best suited to your needs. No matter where you are in your entrepreneurial journey, any Coalition organization can help point you in the right direction. Coalition Members and Leadership Coalition members include the UNCW Center for Innovation and Entrepreneurship (UNCW CIE), AARP, Brunswick Community College Small Business Center, Cape Fear Community College Small Business Center, Cape Fear Region SCORE, Genesis Block Foundation, Network for Entrepreneurs in Wilmington (NEW), Small Business & Technology Development Center (SBTDC), Greater Wilmington Chamber of Commerce, YWCA Living the Dream Center for Entrepreneurship, Carolina Community Impact Fund (CCI Fund), Partner Community Capital, 717mkt Office Collaborative, NC Biotech, and Institute NC. In May 2026, the Coalition held its leadership elections, resulting in the selection of a new executive team. The following officers were elected to serve two-year terms: Chair: Lydia Thomas, UNCW CIE Vice Chair: Diane Lantz, CCI Fund Secretary: Aariene Hansley, Genesis Block Foundation Treasurer: Gloria Monroe, SBTDC Vision for the Wilmington Small Business Coalition In 2026, the Wilmington Small Business Coalition continues its work as a collaborative network of organizations. By connecting programs, expertise, and services across partner organizations, entrepreneurs can more easily find the right support at the right time. Rather than operating in silos, the Coalition aims to function as a unified, cohesive system of support for small businesses and entrepreneurs, ensuring that resources and expertise across partner organizations are visible and accessible. Through stronger collaboration and shared pathways, entrepreneurs can move more seamlessly from idea to startup to growth. Looking to dive into the Wilmington entrepreneurial ecosystem? Connect with any of the Coalition partners to get started! Connect with CIE To learn more about CIE and our services, programs, and events, join the CIE newsletter. You can also follow us on social media: Instagram, Facebook, LinkedIn, TikTok, or YouTube. CIE’s website is uncw.edu/cie. Heather McWhorter is the director of the UNCW Center for Innovation and Entrepreneurship (CIE). CIE supports innovation-forward start-ups and helps to build a vibrant innovation economy for all in southeast NC.
See the first look for 'Neagley,' from the world of 'Reacher,' which premieres on September 16
Maria Sten stars as a private investigator Frances Neagley in a gripping new action series set in the world of Lee Child's best-selling novels.
Politics: High Cost Of Healthcare And The Political Fallout
Americans are grappling with a rising cost in healthcare. For the first time in five years, fewer than half of Americans can consistently afford healthcare. That’s according to the latest data from Gallup. The cost of healthcare in the US remains higher than any other large, wealthy country. According to a report from the Department of Health and Human Services, five million fewer people are enrolled in marketplace plans for 2026, compared to last year. That’s as average premium costs rose about 58%.With health care costs increasingly becoming a stress for Americans, voters are now making the issue a top priority at the ballot box. And it’s an issue that crosses party and geographic lines. According to new polling from The Century Foundation, 71% of Democrats, 66% of Republicans and 75% of rural voters agree that reigning in hospital costs should be a top priority for lawmakers. While new polling from Ipsos and Axios suggests that a majority of Americans say they’re more likely to vote for candidates in November who will lower their health costs.How will the issue of healthcare shape the midterms? And how are Americans grappling with the cost of their health?Find more of our programs online. Listen to 1A sponsor-free by signing up for 1A+ at plus.npr.org/the1a.
Politics: High Cost Of Healthcare And The Political Fallout
Americans are grappling with a rising cost in healthcare. For the first time in five years, fewer than half of Americans can consistently afford healthcare. That’s according to the latest data from Gallup. The cost of healthcare in the US remains higher than any other large, wealthy country. According to a report from the Department of Health and Human Services, five million fewer people are enrolled in marketplace plans for 2026, compared to last year. That’s as average premium costs rose about 58%.With health care costs increasingly becoming a stress for Americans, voters are now making the issue a top priority at the ballot box. And it’s an issue that crosses party and geographic lines. According to new polling from The Century Foundation, 71% of Democrats, 66% of Republicans and 75% of rural voters agree that reigning in hospital costs should be a top priority for lawmakers. While new polling from Ipsos and Axios suggests that a majority of Americans say they’re more likely to vote for candidates in November who will lower their health costs.How will the issue of healthcare shape the midterms? And how are Americans grappling with the cost of their health?Find more of our programs online. Listen to 1A sponsor-free by signing up for 1A+ at plus.npr.org/the1a.
Anthropic unveils 'Claude Science' AI platform for scientific research
Anthropic on Tuesday launched Claude Science, an AI platform designed to help scientists streamline research, analyze data and manage complex computing workflows.
America at 250: Innovations That Transformed Business
Wharton faculty explore the American business innovations that transformed industries, reshaped markets, and changed the way the world works.
Community Health Workers Learn Perinatal Outreach Approaches at UAMS Training
LITTLE ROCK — Twenty community health workers (CHWs) from across Arkansas recently gathered in Springdale with a shared goal: to build connections and learn how to better support mothers across the state. Hosted by the UAMS Institute for Community Health Innovation, the three-day Perinatal CHW Upskill Training provided interactive, hands-on…
Vanderbilt Health performs nation’s first breast cancer surgery using intraoperative PET-CT scan technology
The novel imaging technology provides surgical teams with a real-time view of tumor margins in the operating room.
All of Us tests a new approach to collect real-world data for research
The NIH All of Us Research Program has secured thousands of electronic medical records through an innovative use of patient data-sharing networks
3M joins Cadillac Formula 1® Team as Official Material Science Partner to accelerate racing performance
/PRNewswire/ -- The Cadillac Formula 1® Team and 3M today announced a multi-year global partnership to push the limits of innovation in the world's toughest...
Guns Of Eschaton Is A Western Soulslike FPS Envisioned By The Late Artist Of Half-Life 2 And Dishonored
The late Victor Antonov envisioned this occult spin on 19th century America.
Colorado voters head to the polls today — check here for regular updates
Colorado voters head to the polls today to pick primary winners that will vie for statewide offices in November, the result of which would determine the direction of the state in the coming years. At stake are the parties’ nominees for U.S. senator, governor, attorney general and several statewide offices, along with races for Congress […]
Grand Theft Auto workers seek union recognition after mass firings
Exclusive: Staff at Rockstar Games hope move can be completed before release of GTA VI scheduled for November
Wauwatosa business calls for lawmakers to save hemp
In November, most hemp in Wisconsin will be illegal. Wisconsin's estimated $700 million-dollar industry will shut down.
2 New Order Members Step Away From Touring Due to Health Reasons
New Order announced Monday that Stephen Morris and Gillian Gilbert will not be joining their show at Primavera in Chile in November.
Colorado court rejects November ballot initiatives aimed at redrawing congressional districts
Colorado voters won’t get to decide this November on whether to change the state’s congressional districts to favor Democrats
Northwest Earth and Space Science Pathways Project Celebrates Student Innovation Through ROADS from Earth to Venus National Challenge
The Northwest Earth and Space Science Pathways (NESSP) project recently concluded its 2025–2026 ROADS (Rover Observation And Discoveries in Space) from Earth
Brazil vs Japan Quick Highlights
Check out the full game highlights between Brazil and Japan in the 2026 FIFA World Cup™. Announced by Ian Darke and Landon Donovan.
Apple just acquired the app that won last year’s ‘Innovation’ Apple Design Award
Apple has acquired a variety of apps recently, and the latest—Play—won the 2025 Apple Design Award in the ‘Innovation’ category.
Couple doubled their starter house's square footage for $500K
Olivia DiBona and her husband lived with her parents for six months while they renovated their house. They doubled their square footage for $500,000.
Silver Spring business releases 600,000 infected mosquitoes in DC area
In an innovative way to decrease the mosquito population, when one of the male ZAP mosquitoes being released mates with a female, she will no longer be able to produce offspring.
Silver Spring business releases 600,000 infected mosquitoes in DC area
In an innovative way to decrease the mosquito population, when one of the male ZAP mosquitoes being released mates with a female, she will no longer be able to produce offspring.
Supreme Court expands Trump’s power over the federal bureaucracy
The justices allowed the president to fire a Democratic member of the Federal Trade Commission, striking down a nearly century-old precedent intended to insulate independent agencies from political influence by the executive.
Amorepacific Highlights Science-Led K-Beauty Innovation at NYSCC
/PRNewswire/ -- Amorepacific is reinforcing its science-led approach to K-beauty in the U.S. through engagements with the New York Society of Cosmetic Chemists...
Students immersed in marine science during camp
MOREHEAD CITY — From microscopic sea life to majestic whales, county middle and high school students are spending June and July learning about everything ocean related during innovative marine science
The Busy Bar Is a Gadget to Get People to Leave You Alone
Flipper Devices, a company that built a banned hacking device, now wants to hack your attention span.
Amazon Is Awash With AI-Written Guideslop For Unfinished Games
Buy your novel-like, image-free, hallucinated guide to Alien: Isolation 2 today!
Millions of exploding stars could soon reveal dark energy's secrets
A new AI-powered framework could transform how astronomers measure the expansion of the Universe. By analyzing images of Type Ia supernovae and modeling their environments in unprecedented detail, researchers can estimate cosmic distances with near-spectroscopic accuracy. The technique is designed for the flood of data expected from the upcoming Vera C. Rubin Observatory and may greatly improve our understanding of dark energy.
NEA Nuclear Science Committee advances strategic priorities for the future of nuclear research
The NEA Nuclear Science Committee met on 8-10 June 2026 to advance international collaboration, strengthen scientific expertise, and shape the future of nuclear science through innovation, data and AI.
Marriott and Gensler CEOs: Good Design is Good for Business
Architecture can be a tool for culture and innovation, they say. Plus: How Opella’s chief growth officer makes the most of Cannes Lions.
From invention to impact: Hong Kong Science Fair gives young innovators a wider stage
Organised by the Hong Kong Innovation Foundation, with Sino Group as Principal Patron and the Innovation, Technology and Industry Bureau as Supporting Bureau, the Fifth Hong Kong Science Fair has drawn to a close. Students are already looking beyond their prototypes, with international exchanges and future applications now firmly in sight.
Ingredion plans global Benicaros prebiotic expansion across gut and immune health applications
Ingredion highlights that its recent acquisition of the Benicaros prebiotic is a strong strategic addition to its Healthful Solutions portfolio, supporting the company’s formulation versatility alongside expansion of health-forward and clean label ingredients. The company purchased the patented prebiotic fiber, made from upcycled carrot pomace, from NutriLeads earlier this month. With the deal, Ingredion obtained full ownership of all intellectual property, trademarks, human clinical trials, and know-how related to manufacturing Benicaros.
This Ochsner Health “intrapreneur” has tips for innovating in-house
Korak Sarkar, MD, MHDS, leads a biodesign lab at Ochsner Health and details how physicians can pursue innovation from within their organizations.
Ace Aquatec wins Scottish Business of the Year award for innovation
Ace Aquatec wins Scottish Business of the Year award for innovation
Efzimfotase alfa demonstrated improvements in bone health in treatment-naïve pediatric patients with hypophosphatasia achieving median difference of 1.67 vs placebo in RGI-C Score at week 25 in MULBERRY Phase III trial
Positive results from the MULBERRY Phase III trial showed that efzimfotase alfa (ALXN1850), an investigational enzyme replacement therapy, demonstrated a statistically significant and clinically meaningful improvement in bone health in children (2 to
Sarasota Business Awards honor innovation, entrepreneurship and the American spirit
The Greater Sarasota Chamber of Commerce recognized businesses in the community across 10 categories.
Healthcare groups clash over proposed California billionaire tax
California voters in November are set to decide if the state's billionaires should face a new tax on their assets in order to fund healthcare programs.
The questions you'll see on the California ballot in November
California's Secretary of State has certified the questions Californians will see on the ballot in November.
Healthcare groups clash over proposed California billionaire tax
California voters in November are set to decide if the state's billionaires should face a new tax on their assets in order to fund healthcare programs.
California Politics 360 full episode | What to expect on California's November ballot
KCRA 3 Political Director Ashley Zavala leads conversations on California's November ballot questions, including the proposed billionaire tax.
Retro Recap: All The Classic Gaming News From The Past Week (June 28th 2026)
Sonic pinball! Retroid Pocket Nova! Star Fox 64!
Trump’s vision for White House park: 47 trees to mark his 47th presidency
The president has called Lafayette Square the entrance to the White House. Contractors have been renovating the park for months and are likely to miss Trump’s original goal of reopening before July 4.
Wimbledon 2026 preview: Serena Williams, Jannik Sinner, Novak Djokovic
Serena Williams, Jannik Sinner and Novak Djokovic feature in our essential guide to Wimbledon 2026.
New business brings hat bar experience to Mineral County
Haley Nelson started her business in November 2023 in Lake Havasu City, Arizona. Since moving to Montana, she has remained busy fulfilling online custom orders and shipping hats to customers across the country.
NHL Draft: Sharks seventh-rounder Alexander Karmanov becomes tallest player ever drafted at 7-foot-1
Panama vs England Extended Highlights
Check out the full game highlights between Panama and England in the 2026 FIFA World Cup™. Announced by Ian Darke and Landon Donovan.
Panama vs England Highlights
Check out the full game highlights between Panama and England in the 2026 FIFA World Cup™. Announced by Ian Darke and Landon Donovan.
Timberwolves Re-Sign Jaylen Clark to Three-Year Contract
Minnesota brings back its defensive specialist on a team-friendly deal during a summer full of roster turnover.
TherapyGo Announces Milestone as AI-Powered Mental Health Platform Expands Access to Licensed Psychologists
BOCA RATON, Fla., June 27, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- United Innovation Solutions LLC today announced a major growth milestone for TherapyGo, its ...
Four participants join Coalition for Support of Ukrainian Science at URC 2026
Four participants—Estonia, Switzerland, the Swiss National Science Foundation, and the SaveScienceUA initiative—joined the International Coalition to Support Science, Research, and Innovation in Ukraine during the URC-2026 Conference in Gdańsk. — Ukrinform.
Bruins draft goalie Yuri Ivanov with second-round pick
The Bruins went with a goalie with their first pick of the 2026 NHL Draft.
FISU reinforces its commitment to the World University Sports Movement
On the second day of the meeting, the Executive Committee focused on the upcoming Universiades and the future of the FISU Forum. After a first day concentrating on updating statutes and strategies for a simpler, more innovative and effective future, FISU’s Executive Committee focused on upcoming events on this second and last day of their […]
Maia Reficco finds love in Mallorca in the first look at Anna Todd's 'The Last Sunrise' (exclusive)
EW has the exclusive first look at Prime Video's 'The Last Sunrise,' director Carlson Young's adaptation of the coming-of-age novel.
Illinois 250: What we’ve invented, innovated, created and manufactured
Illinois builds things. We invent and innovate, too — everything from the Pullman car to plastic party cups.
Fleet Science Center unveils two new exhibition spaces after renovation
The $5.6 million renovation expands exhibit space and adds new interactive visitor experiences.
‘Pineapple Days’ sidewalk sale draws business to Lincoln stores amid downtown construction
Cinnamon Dokken, owner of A Novel Idea Bookstore, said it was named for the Lemon Days sidewalk sales that many businesses around Lincoln used to do, instead using pineapples.
Trump ramps up attacks on Democrats as ‘godless Communists’ ahead of November’s midterms
President Donald Trump on Friday seized on the electoral success of several democratic socialist candidates to ramp up his attacks on the Democratic Party, claiming it was being taken over by “godless Communists” who pose an existential threat to the nation.
Norway vs France Highlights
Check out the full game highlights between Norway and France in the 2026 FIFA World Cup™. Announced by Ian Darke and Landon Donovan.
Democratic candidate challenging Rep. Lawler on her bid to ‘tear down political silos’
New York U.S. House candidate and combat veteran Cait Conley (D) joins Meet the Press NOW following her primary win. She faces incumbent Republican Rep. Mike Lawler in one of November’s most closely watched races as Democrats try to flip the House.
Uncle Julio's Fort Worth Celebrates Grand Re-Opening Weekend with Renovated Restaurant, Expanded Patio, Live Entertainment and Exclusive Offers
Uncle Julio's is welcoming guests back to its newly refreshed Fort Worth location with a three-day Grand Re-Opening celebration packed with exclusive offers,...
An Unexpected Vocation: Jaibir Nihal Singh’s Journey from Film Student to Business Executive
Though trained as a filmmaker at Pepperdine University’s Seaver College, Jaibir Nihal Singh found a way to leverage his creative skills into a career as a successful innovator. Now, as a member of Forbes 30 under 30, Singh credits his education as the launchpad for his vocation, even if he never saw it coming.
Phase 2 of restoration project underway at West Herr Performing Arts Center
Members of the Rochester Broadway Theatre League say this next phase of work includes expanding the theatre's Rothschild Lounge back to its original size.
Jeffries: What happens in handful of primaries not ‘indicative of what needs to happen in November’
Business Leader Tim Giroux Announces Candidacy for Nevada Joint Union High School District Trustee
GRASS VALLEY, Calif. – June 26, 2026 – Tim Giroux, a business leader and community member rooted in the Auburn/Grass Valley area since 1999, today announced his candidacy for Trustee of the Nevada Joint Union High School District. The election will be held in November 2026. Giroux brings more than 40 years of business ownership […]
Past participants are now the leaders of MIT’s dynaMIT Club
The MIT student club dynaMIT teaches STEM principles to local middle school students for free every summer. They use fun, innovative experiments to inspire the next generation of scientists and engineers.
Karl Stefanovic Speaks Out on Nine Exit After Tommy Robinson Scandal
The 'Today' host declares himself 'free' in a YouTube statement after Nine ends his contract following a deleted Tommy Robinson podcast episode.
I obsess over PCs for a living. Here are the 28 best Prime Day laptop and computer deals
Prime Day is officially into Day 4, and our computing expert found some great deals on laptops and computers you can get right now.
County Invites Youth, Camps To Register For ‘Mind Your Business’ July 7 - Town-Crier Newspaper
Palm Beach County’s Mind Your Business Youth Entrepreneurship Forum returns on July 7, offering a full day of hands-on learning and innovation for young people across the county. Now in its seventh year, the forum is designed to inspire the next generation of creators, problem-solvers and emerging business leaders. Open to youth ages 10 to […]
TravelTech Show, Business Travel Show Europe name 2026 innovation award winners
Arcube, ImpersonAlly, Acai and Nowadays were recognized in separate competitions for travel technology innovations spanning airline retailing, brand protection, contact center automation and meetings management.
Billionaire tax, affordable housing: See the measures on California's November ballot
California voters will decide on 14 statewide policy proposals come November, from the controversial billionaire tax to an $11 billion affordable housing bond.
Controversial billionaire tax will appear on November ballot
Proponents of a controversial billionaire tax pledge to making sure it appears on the November ballot to backfill federal healthcare funds.
AI designs the ideal burger for taste, health, and planet
Stanford researchers developed an AI tool that creates novel burger recipes optimized for individual preferences. The implications for science go well beyond food.
Ecuador vs Germany Extended Highlights
Check out the full game highlights between Ecuador and Germany in the 2026 FIFA World Cup™. Announced by Ian Darke and Landon Donovan.
Ecuador vs Germany Highlights
Check out the full game highlights between Ecuador and Germany in the 2026 FIFA World Cup™. Announced by Ian Darke and Landon Donovan.
Making Our Own Luck
We are cross-posting a piece that former NIH official Kris Willis wrote for Macroscience. Kris is now the President and Founder of the Woodley Park Institute, for which I’m a board member. Picking winners or hedging bets? Federal science agencies have long wrestled with the question of how to ensure their billions of dollars of grants and contracts result in maximum benefits for Americans. On the surface, it might seem that a goal-oriented, interventionist style of management would be the best policy: prioritize our most pressing problems and distribute funding accordingly.This top-down strategy creates a unique hazard, though: bad choices can send resources in the wrong direction, resulting in slow progress that impedes the delivery of tangible benefits to citizens. Moreover, if decision makers pursue an applied advance when the underlying scientific principles remain poorly understood, they risk costly failures and a loss of support for the research enterprise at large. Examples include Nixon’s 1971 War on Cancer, undertaken on the premise that a cure could be achieved in less than a decade, the drive to build an operational commercial fusion plant by the mid-1990s, and the National Plan to Address Alzheimer’s Disease, which failed to produce the effective treatments and prevention strategies promised by 2025. The contrasting laissez-faire approach is to hedge your bets. If the path to an advance is impossible to predict, then the wisest choice might be to distribute funding to as widely as possible. The main risk of this strategy is that spreading funding thinly may limit the resources available to the most promising research, resulting in the same negative outcomes as the interventionist approach: limited support for the most promising topics, slow progress, and delayed returns. In reality, at science agencies like the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health, program managers navigate between these two extremes, setting some funds aside to target high-priority areas and using the rest to cover the widest possible range of meritorious proposals. This middle path seems like the most rational way to proceed, but it still requires making choices. How much should be set aside for high priority topics? What should those topics be? How should we define merit? Expert opinion can provide a helpful guide, but leading experts can have remarkably different opinions about what matters and what should be prioritized. Moreover, experts and administrators alike can be risk averse, giving an edge to high-profile, well-established concepts. What’s really needed is a data-driven framework to help guide decision-making, one that doesn’t simply repackage prestige or incumbency. Recognizing breakthroughs years in advance Many breakthroughs fail to attract funding or recognition at the earliest stages of development. Katalin Karikó, for example, spent years struggling to win grants for work on mRNA that would eventually win her and Drew Weissman a Nobel Prize. Similar stories can be told about Jim Allison’s groundbreaking studies leading to the development of cancer immunotherapy, Stan Pruisner’s demonstration that prions can self-replicate without DNA, or Robin Warren and Barry Marshall’s proof that Helicobacter pylori, not stress, causes ulcers. Yet at some point, the scientific community recognizes and responds to transformative breakthroughs like these. How does that change happen? And what if science funders could identify the areas that are on the cusp of a breakthrough? Those questions led my collaborators and me to study how scientists responded to past breakthroughs. Based on patterns in that data, we developed a means of predicting future breakthroughs, using biomedicine as a proof of concept. It’s worth taking a moment to describe how our approach works. Briefly, our prediction process begins by grouping the 18 million or so peer-reviewed papers in PubMed, the authoritative database of biomedical research, into roughly 50,000 unique topics. A small subset of these topics are so widely acclaimed as breakthroughs that they have been recognized with a major prize like a Nobel or a Lasker Award. We theorized that studying the development of these outliers over time, especially before they gained acclaim, was the key to identifying future instances of them. After defining topics, we chose 21 representative breakthroughs and asked what they looked like before they won prestigious prizes. To answer that question, we re-ran our topic-mapping algorithm repeatedly, winding back the clock one year each time, stringing together the years to follow the progress of each field as it grew and advanced. We found that in each case, the years leading up to a discovery followed a pattern: a burst of papers on a new, rapidly evolving topic, many of which quickly became influential. These characteristics—the percent of papers that are new, the percentage of papers that are brought in from other topics, and the influence of each individual paper—can all be measured separately for any given topic. Together, they act as a predictive signal that is detectable an average of five years before a transformative discovery is made, and up to thirty years before the discovery receives a major prize. Scanning the current research landscape for topics that display this signal allows us to predict what work will likely produce a future breakthrough. Each year we analyzed includes four or five signals, a number that appears to have remained constant across a twenty year time frame. In their classic work on the sociology of science, Bruno Latour and Steve Woolgar established that the desire to participate in a major discovery is an important motivator for scientists as they consider whether they should take up (or abandon) a research problem. Although further work is needed, the simplest explanation for our results is that this behavior is widespread enough to detect at scale. A foundational advance, or something like it, draws the attention of scientists and causes them to change the direction of their research. They vote with their feet, staking their own reputation and careers by publishing on and citing the new idea. That upswell of interest is the foundation of our breakthrough signal. What kind of research does our model identify as a breakthrough? After building a model based on the patterns in our 21 preselected breakthroughs, we tested it by identifying all early signals of discovery from 1994 through 1997. Of the 18 signals we found in that time period, 17 can be traced forward in time to a breakthrough. Examples include super-resolution fluorescence microscopy (see the image above), the directed evolution of proteins and enzymes (Chemistry Nobel, 2018), and sequencing the human genome (National Medal of Science, 2008). The discovery of the role of leptin signaling in obesity is a particularly interesting case study. Around 1950, scientists noticed the existence of a type of lab mouse that suffered from a unique inherited form of obesity. When given the freedom to choose their own diet, these mice ate more than normal and preferred food that was high in fat. Researchers had few clues as to why the animals overate; early experiments pointed to the existence of a soluble ob factor found circulating in the bloodstream that regulated appetite, but its identity was unknown. In 1994, Jeffrey Friedman and colleagues identified and sequenced the ob gene, noting that the protein it encoded appeared to fit the profile of a circulating factor. A year later, a trio of high-profile publications demonstrated that ob was a hormone that regulated body weight and fat deposition by regulating appetite. One of these was co-authored by Friedman, who christened it leptin from the ancient Greek word for thin. Using our model, the data from 1996 make it clear this advance would become a breakthrough. Scientists had flocked to study the biology of the new hormone, generating the flurry of new papers and citations required to produce a signal. One of these demonstrated that serum leptin concentrations reflected the amount of adipose tissue in the human body, providing clinical validation of the earlier mouse studies. Before the identification of leptin, scientists were unable to point to a specific molecule that controlled appetite and adiposity, so that it was impossible to rule out non-physiological causes of obesity; its characterization fundamentally changed our concept of weight gain. In 2010, Friedman and fellow pioneer Douglas Coleman were awarded a Lasker for the discovery. Our work also identifies breakthroughs in clinical practice and behavioral and social sciences, even though these areas are less likely to draw the attention of major prize committees. One example that falls into this category is the introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair, a minimally invasive surgical procedure for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm, a leading cause of death among Americans over the age of 65. Relative to the previous standard of care, it reduces in-hospital mortality by almost four-fold. In 2017, Timothy Chuter received the American College of Surgeons’ prestigious Jacobsen Innovation award for his multiple refinements to the technique. Another under-recognized breakthrough identified by our model is the development of standardized survey instruments to assess the quality of life for HIV+ patients. The antiretroviral cocktails introduced in the mid-1990s reduced AIDS mortality, but treatment came with serious side effects. The new evaluations showed that patients whose disease progressed had worse physical functioning than Americans with other chronic diseases, while those who were asymptomatic maintained a health-related quality of life on par with the overall US population. This evidence made it possible for patients and activists to argue that even in the absence of a total cure, and in spite of the side effects, alleviation of symptoms was a worthwhile priority for clinicians. My colleagues and I have failed to identify any significant recognition for the physicians and health policy experts who pioneered this advance, although in 2016, researchers called for the World Health Organization to set targets for good health-related quality of life as part of its framework to end the AIDS pandemic. From forecasting to funding How should science funders use our predictions? Any serious discussion of what we should do with this new capability needs to begin with an understanding of its limitations. We can’t (and shouldn’t) invest all of our resources in the small number of topics predicted to produce breakthroughs. Innovative new fields are born from existing ones; they rarely arise de novo. If funders don’t maintain a diverse portfolio, the breakthroughs of tomorrow will have no antecedents. Think of this as eating the seed corn, or killing the goose that lays the golden egg. There are also multiple goals of funding beyond basic scientific discovery, including translating discoveries into clinical practice, developing new technologies, supporting economic development, and training new scientists. The investments needed to accomplish these goals are likely different from those required to support emerging breakthroughs. Finally, we must be aware that we may not capture every instance of a breakthrough. The concept is fuzzy, and not every significant discovery is recognized with a major award. Further, breakthroughs are rare, meaning that our dataset is, by necessity, small. This makes formal estimates of accuracy challenging. Although our overall success rate appears to be high, any one signal may turn out to be a false positive. We found one apparent example: the development of the third generation COX-2 inhibitors, Vioxx and Celebrex, which were much celebrated in the early 2000s as effective but non-addictive pain relievers, meets all the algorithmic criteria of a breakthrough. Five years after it received FDA approval, researchers demonstrated that Vioxx was associated with serious cardiovascular complications, and the manufacturer voluntarily pulled the drug from the market. Celebrex remains available, although like other NSAIDs, it carries an FDA warning for increased cardiovascular risk. Decision makers who were overly focused on the breakthrough potential of this research might have wasted substantial resources nurturing an area that ultimately proved to be a failure—but so would those who relied on expert opinion at the time. That said, the potential benefits of funding the next mRNA vaccine or cancer immunotherapy years earlier than we might have are large. When we can’t assume the outcome of an action, it’s worth conducting an experiment. Can targeted support for areas that are poised to produce a breakthrough increase the return on scientific investment without cannibalizing future advances? With the necessary administrative infrastructure in place, conducting this experiment would be straightforward. First, identify all the breakthrough signals between 2018 and 2023, select half at random, and commit to a decade of investment. For biomedicine, a six year window should yield about 30 topics with the potential to produce a breakthrough. Providing strong support to half of these might be accomplished for $300 million a year. That’s roughly half of the recent annual budget of the NIH Common Fund or around 20% of the fiscal year 2025 budget for ARPA-H. After five years, then again at ten, compare to see which group — the one that was actively managed, or the control — produced more breakthroughs, and on what timescale. Although we used biomedicine as an example, the same experiment could just as well be run for physics, materials science, or any other discipline. Any attempt to undertake such an experiment should keep three points top of mind. First, we can predict the topic of future breakthroughs, but the people and vision for how to move the work forward are still important. In practice, this means success requires active program managers with the expertise to develop the science and the authority to do so, including by recruiting investigators. Second, we would be wise to learn from the failures of past attempts to fund transformative research. High among these are funding modestly repackaged work, confusing the genuinely novel with the merely unfamiliar, and relying too much on incumbent investigators. All of these risks can be mitigated by thoroughly and intelligently integrating high quality data into portfolio management. Finally, we need to have patience. Even with strong funding support, producing a breakthrough takes time. If supporting breakthroughs is the best way to nurture the birth of new fields, we also need to accurately describe and properly manage the other two stages, so that we invest wisely throughout the productive lifetime of ideas and divest once they reach the point of diminishing returns. We would benefit from more study of all of these phases, especially the transition from one to another. More research could answer questions like: When does a breakthrough become an established field? How do the availability of funding, the size and characteristics of the available workforce, and the accumulation of evidence that disagrees with prevailing models affect a field’s decline? Exactly how do old ideas give birth to new ones, and can we speed up the process? The more we understand about the dynamics of scientific progress, the better we can maximize the odds that our curiosity leads to results. I’d call that finding a way to make our own luck.
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