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Senate fails to advance war powers resolution to halt U.S. action against Iran
It has become an almost weekly effort to rein in President Donald Trump
Senate fails to advance war powers resolution to halt U.S. action against Iran
It has become an almost weekly effort to rein in President Donald Trump
Senate rejects resolution to block Trump from further strikes on Iran
The vote, just days after the U.S. and Iran agreed to a limited deal to stop fighting, is a setback for Democrats’ effort to force the president to bring the conflict to a conclusion.
Merchants of Doubt and the attacks on Extreme Event Attribution science
Last week, I attended a meeting at Columbia University on attribution science and climate law, hosted by the Sabin Center. It was a fantastic event, bringing together scientists and legal experts working at the intersection of extreme event attribution and climate law. Subscribe For those unfamiliar with it, extreme event attribution attempts to quantify the contribution of climate change to an extreme event. For example, several groups analyzed the impact of climate change on Hurricane Harvey’s enormous rainfall totals over Houston, Texas and they found that climate change increased rainfall by 15 to 38%. One thing that came up again and again was how terrified fossil-fuel interests are of extreme event attribution science. They are acutely aware that this research could land them in court. And losing those cases would leave them legally liable for billions of dollars in climate damages. Because the legal stakes are so high, the blowback has turned ugly. I spoke with several scientists at the meeting who are facing ongoing harassment over their work. This blowback is a coordinated campaign to make the entire field look suspect. The goal is to create the impression that attribution science is too uncertain, too political, or too conflicted to be useful in court or in public policy. The strategy is not based on actual science or evidence of misconduct, but on the generation of doubt. The new Merchants of Doubt We’ve seen this before. In fact, not that long ago: We only have to go back a year to the Department of Energy (DOE) Climate Working Group (CWG) report to see an example of using doubt as the tool to push back against well-established science. This strategy is laid out in an email from a member of the CWG, Dr. Roy Spencer, that was released during litigation over the Climate Working Group process. The key quote is: About all I can hope is that what we write will provide sufficient “reasonable scientific doubt” regarding the science claims in the 2009 TSD [technical support document], based upon almost 2 decades of new science, to call into question the original reasoning for the EPA Administrator’s decision that CO2 presents a threat to human health and welfare. This statement is strong evidence that at least some members of the committee were working to support a particular policy outcome: revoking the Endangerment Finding. The email also explains how they planned to do it: by attempting to generate “reasonable doubt”. This is going to be hard, Spencer implies. Despite falsely claiming that “2 decades of new science” weakens the case, Spencer explicitly acknowledges that the actual peer-reviewed science of climate change overwhelmingly rejects his position: But if the science argument is decided upon by a vote, or by the number of published citations, we lose the science argument. We can go back even further: This CWG email shares unmistakable DNA with the infamous 1969 tobacco memo that declared: “Doubt is our product, since it is the best means of competing with the ‘body of fact’ that exists in the mind of the general public. It is also the means of establishing a controversy.” The tobacco memo also acknowledges the limit of this strategy: Like the CWG, they knew the science was not on their side. Share The new new Merchants of Doubt The people attacking the IPCC chapter on extreme event attribution are the newest iteration of the Merchants of Doubt. Their goal, like all Merchants before them, is to introduce doubt into the process. Because the report is not even out yet, they cannot attack its conclusions. So they are attacking the authors instead. Here is a press release from the House Science, Space, and Technology Committee: In the letter, the Chairmen express concerns about potential conflicts of interest involving members of the Attribution Committee, stating that “publicly available information suggests a troubling pattern” in which committee members are affiliated with nonprofits that support climate accountability lawsuits, “raising the appearance of impropriety and member bias.” To be clear, this is just innuendo. There is no actual evidence of bias. And given the robust process that these reports go through, including multiple lines of peer review, it seems very unlikely that significant bias can survive into the report. When the report comes out, critics will have the opportunity to make legitimate criticisms of the report — if any exist. If none do, however, they’ll still make criticisms, but they’ll be bogus, simply designed to generate doubt. We’ll see. A note to the press: Fix your frame To any journalists reading this: The public debate over extreme event attribution science is not going away. The science is simply too dangerous to fossil-fuel interests for them to stop fighting it. You very well might be assigned to write an article about this area of research in the future. When you do, do not automatically adopt the framing that climate misinformers want you to use. They want you to frame the story around questions like: Are climate scientists trying to put their thumb on the scale to achieve a predetermined, politically motivated result? Are climate scientists improperly letting their politics invade the science of the IPCC? That frame is a trap. Instead, you need to view this through the historical lens of the Merchants of Doubt. How does the ecosystem of doubt operate? Who funds it? What methods do they use to misrepresent science and slime researchers? What scientific results are they trying to keep people from understanding are legitimate? Ultimately, you instead need to focus your article on the generation of doubt as a way to maintain the fossil fuel industry’s social and legal license to keep burning oil, gas, and coal. If you treat the misinformers’ frame as a legitimate, good-faith scientific critique, you are helping them produce doubt. Don’t do it. Don’t be a Merchant of Doubt. Thanks for reading The Climate Brink! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support our work. Subscribe other stuff The Staying Curious Substack has an interesting post about the different flavors of climate sensitivity. This is crucial information if you want to understand how scientists think about how much warming the Earth will experience. I’d be grateful if you could hit the like button ❤️ below! It helps more people discover these ideas and lets me know what’s connecting with readers.
Proposed USPS rule could restrict vote by mail
Nearly 30% of all votes cast in the 2024 presidential election were by mail. But voting by mail could be severely restricted if a new rule proposed by the U.S. Postal Service is adopted
Oklahoma independents show up to vote on minimum wage question, denounce closed primaries
Oklahoma’s nearly 500,000 registered independent voters were eligible to vote on State Question 832 in Tuesday’s election, which would raise the statewide minimum wage to $15 per hour.
Live results: Alabama midterm primary runoffs
Alabama voters will return to the polls Tuesday to finalize nominees for an open U.S. Senate seat and a handful of other contests in which no candidate received a majority of votes in the May 19 primary.
European Union Releases Draft Sustainability Reporting Standards For U.S. Businesses
Europe's financial regulator is in the final stages of developing sustainability reporting standards for non-EU based businesses, with a vote on June 18.
Miami-Dade commissioners vote unanimously for new mental health center
Steven Leifman, a judge and finance chair of the Homeless Trust, has been on a quest to help address a societal problem he has experienced in his Miami-Dade courtroom, defendants with untreated mental health issues leading to what he says is a revolving door of arrest and release.
Georgia Governor Primary Runoff Election 2026 Live Results
See live results from the 2026 Georgia Governor primary runoff election as Republican votes are counted by candidate and county.
Opinion: Being Alaska Native is not a political label
Voters must look beyond identity and question those who exploit it.
KU Health System Pharmacy Technicians Hold Rally to Demand Every Union Election Vote Be Counted
KU Health System has not yet agreed that all timely postmarked ballots in closely contested union elections be counted. KANSAS CITY, Kan. — Pharmacy Technicians at The University of Kansas (KU) Health System held a rally to demand that every timely cast ballot be counted in their union election and to call attention to the
Colorado primary for U.S. Senator: Candidates John Hickenlooper and Julie Gonzales
The race between U.S. Sen. John Hickenlooper and state Sen. Julie Gonzales has emerged as one of Colorado’s most intriguing Democratic primaries. Gonzales is running on a message of generational change, arguing that Democrats need a more aggressive approach and that a vote for Hickenlooper will just mean “more of the same.” Hickenlooper, a fixture […]
Ohio creates special 'I Voted' sticker in honor of America's 250th birthday
The stickers will be offered during the 2026 General Election in all 88 counties.
Washington, DC, voters cast ballots in crucial primaries as Trump reshapes the capital
Voters in Washington, D.C. are heading to the polls to select party candidates for mayor and congressional delegate
Trump-backed US Rep. Barry Moore battles ex-Navy SEAL Jared Hudson in GOP Senate runoff in Alabama
Alabama voters are deciding party nominations for an open U.S. Senate seat
Chicago City Council to vote on sweepstakes machine ban as bar owners warn of business closures
Chicago alders are divided over a debate on whether to ban or keep sweepstakes machines legal in the city.
Abortion decision prompts women’s healthcare providers to become more politically engaged
In the wake of Dobbs, physicians who specialize in women’s health were more likely to vote in the midterms than their peers
Independents are on the rise in American politics
CNN’s latest polling shows more Americans are identifying as independent voters, standing at 47% in this new CNN poll - the highest it has been in more than 10 years.
More than 52K cast ballots in first 2 days of early voting in N.Y. primaries
Typically during the primary election season, especially in non-presidential years, voter turnout is low.
Same-name candidate disqualified from key Senate race over alleged Dem scheme to confuse voters
Alaska election official disqualified a same-name Republican challenger to Sen. Dan Sullivan, ruling the candidacy was designed to confuse voters.
Hillsborough county attorney clarifies commissioners can't remove sports authority members
The legal opinion was requested by Commissioner Christine Miller after TSA voted to draft a letter to elected leaders seeking to prioritize Raymond James Stadium renovations over a new Rays ballpark.
Alaska boots second Dan Sullivan from Senate race
Republicans alleged he entered the competitive race to syphon votes away from the incumbent, Sen. Dan Sullivan.
Golf entertainment center coming to Huntley, thanks to park district tax referendum
A voter-backed bond sale is helping to pay for
Voters to head to polls in Georgia, Alabama, California and DC on Tuesday
One of the most watched races is the Republican Senate primary in Georgia, the winner of which will face Sen. Jon Ossoff
No music, no TV: Later last call in Worcester doesn't allow later entertainment
The License Commission plans to hold a second vote on extending hours for entertainment.
No music, no TV: Later last call in Worcester doesn't allow later entertainment
The License Commission plans to hold a second vote on extending hours for entertainment.
How the Supreme Court's abortion decision is reshaping US politics
A new book offers in-depth analysis of the impact Dobbs continues to have on voters and public attitudes toward political institutions.
Voter Voices: Longtime poll watcher has seen problems, politics
"Voter Voices" is a series of Mississippians sharing their thoughts on voting rights, the state's history of voter suppression and the new gerrymandering push embroiling Mississippi, the South and the nation.
Vote for which Upstate girls sports team had the best season
Cast your vote for which Upstate girls sports team had the best season
The State of Politics: The Elevator Speech for Democratic Governor Candidates
Boiling down their pitch to voters, why do they deserve your vote?
Vote for Section V's Boys Athlete of the Week for June 8-14 presented by Faber Builders
Your vote will determine who will be the Faber Builders Boys Sports Athlete of the Week for June 8-14.
AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Oklahoma’s state primary
Oklahoma voters will select nominees for federal and state offices including U.S. senator and representative, governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general and both houses of the state Legislature in a state primary on Tuesday
I canceled a luxury cruise to afford World Cup final tickets
Attending the World Cup final won't be cheap, but for a devoted fan, the thrill of the experience justified the cost.
Readers Pick Top Columbus Spots for Shopping and Entertainment
We asked, you answered—here are the places readers voted for in our Best of Columbus 2026 poll for shopping and entertainment.
Vote now for the Capital Region boys’ sports Team of the Week
We've nominated five high school teams that had outstanding performances last week. Cast your vote.
Campaigns are embracing influencers, but internet stardom doesn't always win votes
It's becoming common for campaigns to seek out viral moments and the support of internet stars to reach new voters. But the strategy, albeit flashy, has yielded mixed results in key races this year.
Capitol Notes: AI and Wisconsin politics
Wisconsin voters are concerned about AI. The state's politicians are jockeying to be the go-to leaders to assuage those fears.
Quincy Museum holds Women in Politics Talk with Mayor Linda Moore
Women’s rights started long before the 19th Amendment was adopted into the Constitution in 1920. As women spoke out for their right to vote, the city of Quincy and the state of Illinois was prominent in the support of women’s suffrage.
Devoted dads and citizen science: The evolution of parental care in harvestmen spiders is uncovered
Citizen science data from the popular platform iNaturalist has helped uncover the evolution of parental guarding behavior in harvestmen spiders, as shown in research published in the Zoological Journal ...
25 best whodunit movies in movie history, according to fans
Stacker compiled data on the top whodunit movies and ranked them by IMDb user ratings, with any ties being broken by votes. To qualify, the plot of the film had
25 best whodunit movies in movie history, according to fans
Stacker compiled data on the top whodunit movies and ranked them by IMDb user ratings, with any ties being broken by votes. To qualify, the plot of the film had
25 best whodunit movies in movie history, according to fans
Stacker compiled data on the top whodunit movies and ranked them by IMDb user ratings, with any ties being broken by votes. To qualify, the plot of the film had
Georgia's vote-counting method will soon be banned. Lawmakers will try to find a fix this week
Legislators passed a law two years ago barring the use of the QR code printed on ballots that the state relies on to tally votes beyond July 1 of this year, but no replacement method was ever implemented.
U.S. DOJ continues elections investigation, fight to audit California’s voter rolls
First Assistant U.S. Attorney Bill Essayli said there is evidence of voter fraud as his office continues its investigation into the state’s election.
Leader of California Assembly elections committee defends state's process
The leader of the California Assembly’s Elections Committee defended the state’s elections system despite criticism this week from some voters, the President and various national media outlets including the New York Times.
USC football opposing player scouting report
Amari Jackson is the one Maryland defensive player USC must devote particular attention to when the teams meet this season
Poll: Democrats maintain an edge in the fight for Congress as Trump gets poor marks
Democrats have a 5-point advantage in a new NBC News poll as Trump’s approval rating sinks to a second-term low among registered voters.
Poll: Young and old Americans are starkly divided on national pride and confidence in government
The latest NBC News poll tested Americans’ feelings about broad cultural issues shaping politics on the eve of the country’s 250th birthday.
Devoted dads and citizen science: the evolution of parental care in harvestmen is uncovered
Citizen science data from popular platform iNaturalist has helped uncover the evolution of parental guarding behaviour in harvestmen, as shown in research published in the Zoological Journal of the Linnean Society.
Swiss voters reject population cap proposal
A proposal to introduce a population cap of 10 million in the country has failed. It was put forward by a hard-right party.
Swiss voters projected to reject population cap proposal
Swiss voters have rejected a proposal put forward by a hard-right party to introduce a population cap of 10 million in the country, early projections suggest.
Swiss voters poised to reject 10 million population cap in referendum, projection shows
Swiss voters were set to reject a proposal to cap the country’s population at 10 million in a referendum held on Sunday, according to preliminary projections by national broadcaster SRF.
Why I’m voting Democrat
It makes no sense to be a Republican in Colorado. Or a Democrat for that matter. On the day I turned 18, even before I bought my first legal 3.2 beer (remember 3.2 beer?), I went to the courthouse and registered to vote (remember registering to vote?). I joined the Republican Party. Even at 18, […]
Bob on Business: A whole city devoted to pickleball? Developer serves up Pickle City Fort Worth
Also, former Heim property sold; small business closures; and local firm plans AI investment.
Who stays home may threaten Republicans this year as much as who votes
Subtraction, not addition, is emerging as the central threat to Republicans in the 2026 election.
How Redistricting Pit Wasserman Schultz Against Black Democrats in Florida
Four candidates running in a historically Black district risk dividing the Black vote and losing to Ms. Wasserman Schultz, who is white.
Trump at 80 works to project strength as political woes mount
He is struggling to end an unpopular war with Iran, some fellow Republicans have begun to resist his ideas and polls show his support outside his devoted base is waning.
Doña Ana County OKs more back pay for health workers at detention center
EL PASO, Texas (KTSM) — Doña Ana County commissioners voted on Friday, June 12 to provide additional back pay to employees working for the healthcare provider at the County Detention Center. …
Voters cast first ballots in primary season as early voting begins
Social Preview text goes here.
Dooley campaigns with Kemp in Middle Georgia as lawmakers allege 'pay-to-play politics'
Derek Dooley is making some of his final pitches to voters in Middle Georgia as the U.S. Senate runoff inches closer to Election Day, and his campaign faces...
James Talarico Plays Up Spurs’ Past Glory in Campaign Ad Aimed at Texas Voters
The Democratic candidate for Senate looked to gain crossover appeal with a spot emphasizing teamwork and his own experience as a teacher in San Antonio.
If homestead exemption hike fails with voters, Byron Donalds vows to 'bring it back'
Donalds' backup plan involves a group in state government that last met in 2007.
This week in politics: How Schuylkill County’s legislators voted
Both the PA House of Representatives and Senate were in session this week — the House passed 22 bills and the Senate passed 23. The U.S. House and Senate were also in session — the House passed 24 bills and the Senate passed 12. Let’s take …
Miami-Dade Must Act Now on the Miami Center for Mental Health and Recovery
On June 16, the Miami-Dade Board of County Commissioners is expected to take a vote that has been years in the making—whether to finally open the Miami Center for Mental Health and Recovery or allow it to continue sitting empty. The seven-story facility is fully constructed, renovated, certified, and ready to serve the community. It
Anti-government protesters pan bill for political Oct. 7 inquiry, said set for vote this week
Relative of slain hostage rails against Netanyahu's 'populist, fascist' bid to avoid forming state probe; report says Knesset likely to hold first reading vote in coming days
How 2026 campaigns are deploying creators to spread their message
With a growing number of adults using social media for political engagement, campaigns work with influencers on the platforms to advertise to new audiences. But are influencers profiting at the expense of voter transparency?
Trump prosecutor in L.A. is searching for voter fraud before final count
First Assistant U.S. Atty. Bill Essayli is waging an unusual campaign to find election fraud in California despite DOJ guidelines saying not to during vote counting.
Trump Is Losing Ground With White Working-Class Voters on the Economy
A review of polling data shows an extraordinary swing among white working-class voters on the president’s handling of the economy.
In Retrospect: Poland, Russia, Europe
In April I spent a few days with Zryw, a Polish non-profit organization that recruits young people to enter politics and public life. Their aim is to build a new generation of civic leaders in Poland. I’ve followed their evolution from the beginning; my son is one of the founders. (“Zryw” means “impulse” or “burst of speed” in Polish). Julie Chmielewska, one of Zryw’s leaders, interviewed me at the event. Here is the conversation, lightly edited for grammar and context: Julia Chmielewska: Assuming that culture shapes institutions, could we conclude that some cultures are more prone to authoritarianism? Anne Applebaum: I don’t think so. Every culture, every nation, and every country has the potential for change. When we look at history, we can see that nations do change. Poland has changed, for example, from the 1980s to today. There’s a completely different mentality here than the one I encountered when I first visited, in 1988. The current generation sees the world through a different frame. So no, I don’t believe that certain nations are doomed to authoritarianism, or to anything. Of course, there are political and cultural traditions, but they can always be challenged. JC: So do you think there’s something intrinsic in human nature that pushes people to democracy, freedom? AA: I think there is something in human nature, a deep instinct, that pushes people towards freedom, yes. People who live in authoritarian countries – and I’ve heard this from them over and over again – sooner or later find themselves angered by a feeling of helplessness. They can see the unfairness of crooked courts, irrational political decisions. They naturally dislike the fact that somebody has all the power while they have none. In those circumstances, people who have no political background at all sometimes are politicized just by that frustration. I’m thinking of Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, for example, who was a Belarusian housewife, until the circumstances of her husband’s arrest forced her to become a politician. I met a woman who is a Uyghur from China, and who had come to live in Turkey. After several of her family members were arrested, she too was propelled into a political role. These kinds of experiences make people interested in democracy or political reform, even if they thought they didn’t care. I also think that the opposite is true: some people instinctively prefer homogeneity, order, hierarchy. They don’t like the confrontation of opinions or the noise of debate, and they lean towards a single leader or a unified regime. I think that most of modern history is shaped by the clash between those two different sides of human nature. JC: Which force do you find more powerful today? AA: I think they both have a lot of power and there’s no way of predicting who wins. Even in countries that seem very shut off or stuck in an authoritarian system can change. We’ve seen that happen. And vice versa, I think democracies can also begin to fail and slide into authoritarianism. So it’s very important not to be complacent in either direction. JC: I want to go into your history and your experiences. You’ve lived in Russia during a time of incredible change in the late 80s, and then you came back to do research in post-Soviet Russia. AA: I was a student in Russia just before the collapse of the Soviet Union. I then traveled and worked there extensively in the 1990s, and I met people who really were full of hope. They hoped that Russia could become a democracy, or at least a place that guaranteed freedom of speech, freedom of the press. These weren’t ideas that came from Washington. Although now the narrative in the Kremlin is different, I met many people who were working towards exactly that kind of transformation. A friend of mine ran a series of seminars – once a year, and then later several times a year, in cities all over Russia – designed to get people to discuss politics in new ways. She invited young politicians and journalists, as well as foreigners. I went to many of them, in Moscow as well as Volgograd and Novosibirsk. Over two decades, hundreds of people came to these seminars, and all of them wanted Russia to be different. I remain convinced that many Russians still want Russia to be different. It’s just that the old system, in the form of Putin, a representative of that system, returned. The KGB reimposed their power. And this wasn’t because of something to do with culture, this was to do with money and politics, and who was in charge. JC: You’ve partially answered my question... I wanted to ask whether that excitement of the 1990s was an exception from the Russian historical norm which has been rather authoritarian? AA: Of course, if you look at the history of Russia since the 18th century, there have always been liberal groups, reformers and revolutionaries. There were the Decembrists, in the early 19th century, and the rural populists later on, who tried to organize the peasantry. A significant group of liberal Russians appeared at the turn of the 20th century, people like the father of the writer Vladimir Nabokov, who was a Russian politician before the revolution. These groups were small in number, but sometimes had a broader significance. The Russian dissident movement in the 1950s and 1960s actually invented the modern human rights movement. It was their idea to hold the leaders of the Soviet Union accountable for the language they used, to remind them of the treaties they had signed and the promised they had made. They created the Helsinki group, for example, that held Soviet leadership to the language of the Helsinki Treaty, which formally ended the Second World War and which contained guarantees of human rights, at least on paper. That idea spread to Eastern Europe, and similar tactics were used here in Poland. (Benjamin Nathans recently wrote a great book about the Soviet dissidents, To the Success of Our Hopeless Cause) JC: But seemingly, even if they do ever get power, they could never hold on to it. AA: We don’t know, because they have never really had power. But in any case, we also don’t know what will happen in the future. There is no reason to assume that Russia will forever be condemned to totalitarianism. Even during the first fifteen years of Putin’s regime there was some form of democratic politics. Only when the full-scale war began did he bring everything to an end: he shut down all remaining independent organizations and killed his most important opponent, Alexi Navalny. But does that mean he is popular, that he enjoys legitimacy? Even now, we don’t really know what Russians think about him, or about the war. There is no way of doing real polling in Russia because nobody will answer an independent pollster over the phone. JC: Do you think that the flock of young people, especially young men, who fled Russia after the start of the war represent a continuation of liberal movements that refuse to partake in the authoritarian state, or do you think they are moving for the sake of self-preservation – “I don’t want to go to the army, so I leave”? AA: I’m sure it’s both. I actually know many people who left Russia for political reasons either in the very last years before the war, or else just after the war began. JC: And do you see a change in the young generation versus the old one that have fled? AA: It’s hard for me to say because the people who I know were mostly already politicized. I do know some younger people who left, but most of them were already either active in the opposition, or working as journalists. Many of them very self-consciously think of themselves as maintaining Russian culture abroad, just as in the 20th century the Soviet dissidents or the anti-communist White Russians once thought of themselves as people who maintained the true Russian culture, outside of Bolshevik Russia. JC: Let’s move on to Poland. One of your first experiences with Poland was reporting on Margaret Thatcher’s first state visit, in the autumn of 1988. You followed her around the farmers’ market. AA: She was making a symbolic gesture. She wanted to welcome free markets, but the only one she could really visit was the farmers’ market at Hala Mirowska. JC: And I want to talk about this area because today you can look out of any window in that district, Mirów, and see rows and rows of skyscrapers. How does it feel to see a country built from the ground in such a short time, both politically and economically? AA: You know, when you’re living in a period of dramatic change, it’s always hard to know whether the change is positive or negative. The transformation in Poland created winners and losers, as well as new classes of people, new political movements of different kinds. At the time, it sometimes just felt like turbulence. Now, we can look back at the 1990s and early 2000s in Poland and see in retrospect that the country was headed in towards prosperity and European integration. In around 2009 or 2010, I remember speaking to a woman who worked cleaning government offices, and who asked me if her daughter should study in Amsterdam or in London. This seemed to me to be a real transformation, and it happened very fast: within a few years, Poles stopped feeling like second-class Europeans, and a generation of younger Poles appeared who had no qualms about crossing borders. JC: We again live in turbulent times. Do you think we’re heading towards positive outcomes? AA: I can’t make predictions, because everything that happens tomorrow depends on what people do today. Also, history doesn’t have a trajectory. It doesn’t move in a particular direction. You only think it does afterwards. As I said, you can look afterwards at Poland in the 1990s and you could say this was a period of great progress. But not everybody at the time saw that. Sometimes people are very wrong about a given country’s trajectory. I remember people writing about Ukraine in the 1990s, about how dangerous it was that Ukraine was independent, that this was going to be an anti-semitic state, that Ukrainian nationalism was going to come back... and although you can say many bad things about Ukraine, the country made many bad choices, actually it became a pretty tolerant state which now has a Jewish president and until recently a Muslim defense minister. JC: In the 1990s Poland’s and Ukraine’s GDP were roughly similar. Ukraine was even a bit richer. So the starting point was similar for both of these countries, but they’ve turned out very, very differently. Even if we stop in 2014. Why do you think Ukraine “chose East”? Was it external influence? AA: No, I think Ukraine was in a different position. First of all, central and eastern Ukraine had been part of the Soviet Union since the 1920s, and had therefore experienced a longer period of occupation, repression, Sovietization and even Russification. Ukraine did not have, as Poland did, an alternative elite: a large cadre of economists and politicians, who already had some experience in opposition politics and in independent thinking. In Poland, the transformative finance minister, Leszek Balcerowicz, had already thought about how an economy might be decentralized before he took office. We can argue about how successful he was, but at least he was prepared to try something new. In Ukraine, people weren’t prepared. For one, there hadn’t been much space even for an illegal opposition in the previous couple of decades. Ukraine was also in many ways still emerging from colonial occupation. For the previous couple of centuries, many of the most capable Ukrainians had moved to Russia, and the first generation of leaders in independent Ukraine tended to be former Soviet apparatchiks. They didn’t immediately seek to become closer to western Europe. Instead, they looked for some kind of economic and political “third way” and an accomodation with Russia. Ukraine became stuck in this position, half-in, half-out and became pretty profoundly corrupt. JC: The Polish alternative elite had a vision of where they wanted the country to go. I think the general perception now is that this vision ends with the next election, right? Is this a natural process of gaining power? AA: Their vision, and it was shared by the time by politicians who now call themselves both left and right, was that Poland should join the EU and NATO, as fast as possible. My husband (Radek Sikorski) was in the very first government that said it wanted to join NATO. At the time this was taken very badly in Washington: the demand for NATO membership absolutely came from Poland, not from the US. But even then, in the early 1990s, many Poles already understood that the Russian sphere of influence would grow once again, that it was important to become part of the transatlantic alliance and an integrated Europe as fast as possible: NATO, the EU, the Council of Europe, all of the trading and security alliances. That consensus lasted through several different governments and over many years, even governments containing former communists. For twenty years, right, left and center disagreed about many things, but they all agreed on the direction that the country should go. In retrospect, that consensus created the basis for prosperity in Poland. JC: And regarding the Polish-Ukrainian relations. We know that antagonisms, e.g. the myth of Wołyń [a massacre of Poles that took place in what is now Western Ukraine, in 1943] are increasingly used in Polish political discourse today. In Ukraine, nationalist historians make heroes out of UPA, the Ukrainian revolutionary army, which is held responsible for this tragedy. Where do you see a start for burying the hatchet? Is the reconciliation of our nations possible? AA: So here’s a strange thing: For more than a decade after they both gained independence, Poland and Ukraine participated in a number of projects that were designed to solve exactly these kinds of Polish-Ukrainian differences. Books were published that were jointly written by Polish and Ukrainian historians, monuments were built. These projects were successful: If you’d asked me this question in 2010, I would have said that there are no real historical issues between Poland and Ukraine, that the two countries had mostly reconciled. For a number of reasons, this began to shift. In Poland, children and grandchildren of victims of the Wołyń massacre felt their tragedy hadn’t been fully recognized. In Ukraine, nationalist groups wanted the UPA partisans who had fought against the Soviet Union recognized for their heroism, despite the fact that some in this broad and not well-defined group were also linked to Wołyń. In both eastern Poland and western Ukraine, the memory of the ethnic cleansing that took place there in the late 1940s - Poles were moved West, Ukrainians East - to accomodate new borders has left feelings of displacement and bitterness. The wave of Ukrainian immigration, which started before the war, may have provoked some of this. But don’t underestimate the role played by Russia, which has always wanted to create discord between Poland and Ukraine, and pumps out propaganda to that effect in both countries. Vandalism on both sides of the border, damage done to cemeteries and monuments, is sometimes carried out by provacateurs working for Russia, just to create bad feelings. The Polish-Ukrainian conflict also hides a different reality: although there are real grievances and bad memories, the truth is that the biggest tragedies both nations experienced in the twentieth century were inflicted by the Soviet Union and Nazi Germany. That should unite these two countries, not divide them. JC: This week (19.04.2026 – Ed.) in Hungary we saw that using historical narratives to create grievance has no longer worked. Are you optimistic about the direction after Orban’s loss? AA: The Hungarian election was really important because it shows that people can actually resist powerful, dominant propaganda. The ruling party Fidesz controlled all of the TV, 90% of the newspapers, the constitutional court, the bureaucracy... and yet people had the nerve to vote against it and resist it. It’s also an important election because Hungary created a huge network of well-funded think tanks and foundations that were funding other far right groups and projects. So that loss is going to have a knock-on effect in other places too, maybe even in Poland. JC: What you’ve said about resisting propaganda reminds me of one of the interviews you did about talking to Russians in the post-Soviet era who claimed that people knew that the system was lying. Why do people choose to believe in these regimes anyway? AA: Because it’s useful. Stephen Kotkin, an American historian, once described how people would learn how to “speak Bolshevik”: It was just a language that you needed to use in order to get by in society. If you didn’t talk the way the regime wanted you to talk, then you might have problems, or lose your job, or your kids would not get into university. It was a way of getting along. Communist Poland was similar, at least in the early years. When I was writing a book about the Sovietization of Eastern Europe after World War II, I met a lot of people who wanted to talk a lot about the war, when many of them had done really heroic things. But almost nobody wanted to talk about the decade afterwards, between 1945 and 1956. This was when you had the short period of terror, violence and Polish Stalinism. To stay safe, people felt the need to just go along with what others were saying, or stay out of politics, or use communist jargon without necessarily believing it. I don’t judge them for it, and I wouldn’t describe all of those people as collaborators. It’s easy to feel moral certainty in retrospect, because we know that communism ended. But if you were living in 1949, it might not have been clear to you that communism was going to end. In very repressive societies, maybe about 10% of people who are really evil – collaborators, torturers. Maybe 10% of people are really brave and who find ways to resist. And then around 80% of people have kids, they have parents, they have to have jobs and they’ve had to get through it somehow. Strange though it may sound, I’ve found that the work I did on that book is now very useful in explaining some of what’s going on in the United States today. There are plenty of members of the Republican Party in Congress who know perfectly well that Donald Trump says many things that aren’t true. But they avoid criticizing him because it’s inconvenient, because they would get in trouble, because someone would attack them on the internet. So actually you don’t even need mass terror to get people to conform. JC: Is Gen Z reinventing agency? AA: We’ll see. In any generation you can find groups of people who want agency. If you live in a society that’s unfair, for example where a tiny number of people have captured most of the wealth, then at a certain point people rebel. This is always easier for younger people, who have you have less to lose. The question now is how the internet will affect the relationships between citizens and the state, and how it will change organizations. The “Twitter revolutions” people spoke about as early as 2008-9, mass protests organized online, have often proved to be very superficial. Although you can easily join something just by clicking, the work of creating a real movement requires physical participation. Successful mass movements of the past, for example the Civil Rights movement in the United States, were built by people who had spent many years together. They had participated in non-violent workshops together. They practiced and prepared. Just using the you can get everybody to show up at a certain moment, but then when the protest is broken up, nothing happens. It’s also true that the repressive regimes have more recently learned how to use the internet to undermine leaders and movements. Most of all, they now understand how to make people cynical. The form of propaganda that most modern authoritarians use - and I think the Russians really pioneered this - deploys sneering cynicism. Instead of praising the rulers, the regime propagandists mock the opposition movement leadership for being supposedly corrupt or sexually degenerate, with the goal of undermining any kind of idealism. JC: MAGA grew on the internet? AA: MAGA is a real grassroots movement. They had symbols, red hats, they showed up at rallies. But you’re right that the cynicism, the sarcasm and the distrust that the movement embodies came originally from the internet, and this is different. Fifty years ago, most European political parties had a social base in real organizations, in trade unions for Social Democrats, in church groups for Christian Democrats. As people stopped going to church and as the trade unions became smaller, the social base of these parties disappeared. Now people who wouldn’t have known one another in the past meet on the internet and create new movements, many of which don’t last. JC: Is history ending? Going in stale circles? AA: History never ends. In truth, human beings want contradictory things at the same time: order and freedom, stability and change. These things are never resolved, and when a society swings too far in one direction, people always push it the other way. But each time that happens, the result is different. Certainly it is true that we are now in a period when old philosophers and ideas from the 1930s are undergoing a revival. Carl Schmitt, who was a philosopher who was very influential on the Nazis, is back as an influence on both the far left and the far right, once again inspiring people to think that all politics has to be existential, that all politics is about defining and defeating enemies. In the US, some are also bringing back dominionism, the idea that we need a Christian and not a secular state. It’s also true that we are living through a more fundamental shift. The old left-right divide, which was mostly about the size of the state, is much less important now. Instead, we are arguing about more fundamental things: what are our rights, what protects our freedom. Or how much power do we want to give small elites, versus how much power to give ordinary people. In America a small group of very wealthy people now control information, because they control the social media platforms and AI, which means they determine what people will read and learn. Finding a way to preserve preserve zones of autonomy and independent thinking, this is going to be the main task for the next generation. JC: What is the one book that a person interested in Central Europe should read? AA: You could read my book “Iron Curtain: the Crushing of Eastern Europe” which tells the story of how the Soviet Union imposed its culture on the region. Or read Tim Snyder’s history of the region, “The Reconstruction of Nations: Poland, Ukraine, Lithuania, Belarus 1569-1999.” And everyone should read “The Captive Mind” by Czesław Miłosz, which describes exactly the phenomenon we were talking about: why do people collaborate? I joined Scott Galloway and the brilliant Fiona Hill in a discussion about the wars in Ukraine and Iran, the future of global power, and what these conflicts reveal about America's role in the world. Scott told us that this was the 400th edition of his podcast, which is quite a number: My friend Francesco Chiamulera runs a brilliant series of literary events, Una Colline di Libri, A Hill of Books, in the Prosecco Hills, a region of vineyards and elegant hill towns in the Veneto, north of Venice. We did an event in Vittorio Veneto and also drove and biked around the countryside. Buy Autocracy Inc Buy Iron Curtain Open Letters, from Anne Applebaum is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Subscribe
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But this is a ploy, because while the cost of maintaining Social Security benefits at their promised level isn’t trivial, it is in fact affordable. According to the Trustees’ report, the actuarial balance of OASDI up through 2050 — the amount of additional funds it would need to keep paying full benefits for the next 25 years — is 1.06 percent of GDP. To put that number in perspective, the Trump administration proposes increasing military spending next year by $420 billion, equivalent to about 1.4 percent of GDP – without any discussion of whether that’s affordable Yet how did we get to the point where Social Security will need to be topped up? The main answer is that we have an aging population, with a growing ratio of retirees collecting benefits to workers paying into the system: Trump’s anti-immigration policies are making this problem worse. According to the Trustees’ report, lower immigration will deepen Social Security’s financial hole because many immigrants are working-age adults who will pay into the system for decades before they collect benefits. In fact, this problem may be much bigger than the report acknowledges: The report’s baseline assumption is that we’ll have net immigration of almost 1.2 million people a year, and even the pessimistic case assumes 750,000 a year. Meanwhile actual net immigration has already been cut far below that — and may now be negative. Moreover, Social Security is being financially damaged by growing income inequality in America. Payroll taxes are levied only on wages up to $184,500, and they don’t touch capital income. With the distribution of income increasingly shifting from labor to capital, as well as becoming more unequal among wage-earners, revenue from the Social Security payroll tax has been falling as a share of national income. From 1990 to 2024, it fell from 5.02 percent of gross domestic income to 4.46 percent. Which brings me to the question that, these days, we ask about everything: How might Social Security be affected by the advent of AI? A short answer: If, as many of us fear, AI accelerates rising income inequality, it will further reduce the payroll tax receipts that currently pay for Social Security and further endanger its finances. On the other hand, if AI, as its advocates promise, leads to faster economic growth, it will increase the potential tax base that could and should be used to support Social Security and other social insurance programs. But to take advantage of that larger base, we’ll have to get serious about taxing wealth and capital income. Is Social Security in trouble? Yes, but only because of the way its financing is currently structured — a structure that no longer works well because our society and economy have become so unequal. 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