SCROLL NEWS / DISCOVERY
Search headlines
Find the stories shaping the conversation.
Results for " prop " 5,175 found 🔀 AI-powered Shuffle
Silverdale group partnering with PCHS on community center plan
Funding from the state will help PCHS buy property in Silverdale, where a new nonprofit partner hopes to create a community center.
Ohio bill would raise tax on sports betting wagers
An Ohio Republican is proposing raising the sports betting tax to fund public stadiums and K-12 education.
Wisconsin Senator Proposes Free Streaming Of Sports Games
U.S. Senator Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) is introducing a new bill to stop professional sports leagues from blacking ...
Clayton County residents speak out against proposed data center ordinance
ELKADER, Iowa — About 100 concerned residents braved severe weather Tuesday evening to provide feedback on the Clayton County Planning and Zoning Commission’s proposed data center ordinance.
Proposed adult entertainment, seafood venue in Johnstown canceled
Plans for a combination seafood restaurant and adult entertainment business in Johnstown have been called off after city officials raised concerns about a propo
Transgender sports participation measure pushed to November ballot
The proposal would prevent transgender students assigned male at birth to play in girls sports or use girls private spaces like bathrooms and locker rooms.
Houston midwife says access to care, systemic racism drive Black maternal deaths; urges prenatal visits
A certified nurse midwife with Ben Taub Hospital says barriers to basic health care along with systemic racism continue to fuel disproportionate maternal deaths among Black women in Harris County, even as Houston sits in the shadow of one of the world’s largest medical centers.
Lamont pushes health insurance tax credits for CT small businesses
Ned Lamont's proposal offers a tax credit to businesses that help cover the cost for employees who buy their own health insurance plans.
Democratic lawmakers seek fix to Colorado’s stalled prison population plan
Colorado’s prison population plan was designed to prevent overcrowding. Instead, eight months after it was triggered, the system remains strained and largely ineffective, prompting two Democratic lawmakers to push for changes through new legislation. According to its sponsors, Senate Bill 036 lays out the proposed changes. Sen. Mike Weissman and Sen. Julie Gonzales say the […]
Traws Pharma Reports Full Year 2025 Results and Provides Business Highlights
Tivoxavir marboxil advancing towards a human influenza challenge trial as a once-monthly prophylactic agent, building on broad preclinical antiviral activity, Ratutrelvir topline Phase 2a data show a differentiated profile versus PAXLOVID® in COVID patients, with good overall safety; final study analysis underway Private financing of up to $60M (with $10M of such amount upfront) offering of common stock and milestone-based and three-year warrants completed on April 15, 2026 supporting operations
Amazon buys former Hermon drive-in
Tax records show the approximately 20-acre property was purchased by Amazon for $1.9 million, more than three times the fair market value. Amazon has already opened a shipping hub in Caribou, with plans for more in Gorham and Waterville.
AG Keith Ellison seeks public comment on Sutter Health’s acquisition of Allina Health
Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison is asking for the community to weigh in on a proposed acquisition of Allina Health by Sutter Health.
My Ex Bought Our Son a Much Too Grown-Up Gift for His Birthday. He’s Only 6!
This is totally inappropriate.
Paul Renner rolls out plan to eliminate homestead taxes, cut business taxes, provide relief for renters
The Republican candidate for Governor has an ambitious proposal.
The history of popes and politics
Today on AirTalk: Popes and politics; L.A. City Charter reform proposals; Doing things alone; Will Gen Z save moviegoing? A chimpanzee civil war? and…
State approves $3 Million for Northwest Jacksonville programs for small businesses, crime prevention
City officials announced that the state has approved a $3 million appropriation to support programs in northwest Jacksonville aimed at boosting small businesses, expanding vocational and workforce training, addressing food insecurity and preventing youth crime.
English still dominates science, but its share fell from 94% to 85%
In 2023, about 85% of the roughly five million articles indexed in major global databases covering the natural, medical and social sciences were written in English. In 1990, the proportion was considerably ...
http://democrats-energycommerce.house.gov/media/press-releases/pallone-opening-remarks-subcommittee-legislative-hearing-public-health-bills
Energy and Commerce Committee Ranking Member Frank Pallone, Jr. (D-NJ) delivered the following opening remarks at a Health Subcommittee legislative hearing on "Healthier America: Legislative Proposals to Improve Public Health:"
Scientists think alien life might be hiding in patterns
A new study proposes detecting life in space by spotting patterns across many planets instead of focusing on one at a time. If life spreads and changes planetary environments, it could leave behind statistical clues linking planets together. These patterns may reveal life even when traditional biosignatures are unclear or misleading. The method could help scientists prioritize which planets are most likely to host life.
To Keep Climate Science Alive, Researchers Are Speaking in Code
Words considered "woke" are vanishing from National Science Foundation proposals. Grist tracked the changes.
Business owners left with questions on proposed Fruitville Road development
Construction of the large apartment project could begin as early as February of next year.
Gambling legislation proposed puts fee on sports wagers
A bill has been proposed by Republican State Senator Bill Blessing, based in the Cincinnati area, that would put a two percent fee on sports wagers.The bill is
Gambling legislation proposed puts fee on sports wagers
A bill has been proposed by Republican State Senator Bill Blessing, based in the Cincinnati area, that would put a two percent fee on sports wagers.The bill is
UBS chairman says key business decisions may soon become unavoidable
Key business decisions may soon become unavoidable, UBS Chairman Colm Kelleher said on Wednesday, turning up the volume on a tense debate about proposed Swiss capital requirements that has triggered growing pressure from markets and shareholders.
Coal ash rollback 'all-out attack' on Indiana communities, groups say
The U.S. EPA proposed to roll back coal ash cleanup rules initially designed to protect people and water from pollution.
How mental health and addiction services in Cuyahoga County could get funded – or cut
A Cuyahoga County agency will require mental health and addiction providers to compete for funding under a new proposal. Here's why.
Mountain View considers downtown entertainment zone
(KRON) — The City of Mountain View is considering new legislation to establish an entertainment zone in its downtown area. The proposed ordinance, introduced Tuesday evening at a City Council meeting, would allow for public, outdoor alcohol consumption during special events on five blocks of Castro Street. The initiative aims to create a festive environment […]
NBA play-in tournament: Coby White's 3-pointer, late LaMelo Ball layup propel Hornets in OT thriller past Heat
NBA play-in: Coby White 3, late LaMelo Ball layup propel Hornets in OT thriller past Heat
White sent the game to OT with a 3 as Kon Knueppel watched from the bench. Then LaMelo Ball redeemed himself with a game-winning layup in the final seconds.
Senate Democrats outline amendment strategy as budget debate nears
Members of the Colorado Senate met with their respective caucuses on Tuesday to discuss the state’s proposed $46.8 billion budget for fiscal year 2026-2027, which passed through the House over the weekend following lengthy debate. The full Senate will begin debating the budget on Wednesday. Joint Budget Committee members Sens. Jeff Bridges and Judy Amabile […]
Mayor Jones seeks business input on zoning rules for private detention facilities
SAN ANTONIO - Mayor Gina Ortiz Jones is asking the city’s economic development leaders to weigh in on a proposed zoning ordinance that would regulate where non-
Developers to meet with business owners about replacing historic cottages with 324-unit complex
Tennessee-based Bristol Development Group proposes demolition of colorful Fruitville Road village.
Lawmakers in NY propose loosening alcohol consumption laws during World Cup
Some lawmakers in New York are pushing to open "entertainment zones" during games, which would loosen the alcohol consumption laws.
Harford County residents concerned business may sell property to company building data centers
Neighbors raise concern over proposed 1,260-acre business park annexation
CHEYENNE – The city of Cheyenne is eyeing the opportunity to annex approximately 1,260 acres west of town and zone it as a business park.
Hades 2's second post-launch patch adds in more prophecy conclusions and flirtier friends
Plus, plenty of quality of life changes.
City Council proposes entertainment district for downtown DeKalb
DeKALB -– On Monday, the City Council discussed a proposed entertainment district downtown, allowing patrons to carry beverages from one place to another to increase activity in the evening hours. If the proposal is passed, bars and restaurants would have the opportunity to join this district and would be marked with a sign indicating their...
CBIA slams Appropriations Committee for rejecting small business health care bill
The state’s largest business organization is taking Connecticut legislators to task after the Appropriations Committee failed Monday to approve a bill that aims to help small businesses with their health care costs.
CBIA slams Appropriations Committee for rejecting small business health care bill
The state’s largest business organization is taking Connecticut legislators to task after the Appropriations Committee failed Monday to approve a bill that aims to help small businesses with their health care costs.
Maryland Gov. Wes Moore falls short in bid to redraw congressional map to boost Democrats
A proposal for a new Maryland congressional map has officially died with the conclusion of the state's legislative session.
Lawmakers Fail to Address Small Business Healthcare Costs » CBIA
CBIA issued the following response to Monday's Appropriations Committee vote rejecting a transformative small business healthcare bill.
Balloons Over Bend Brings Family Fun, Night Glows & High-Flying Entertainment to Central Oregon
The REMAX Key Properties Balloons Over Bend is set to return July 24–26, 2026, bringing a weekend of hot air balloon launches, live entertainment, and community celebration to Central Oregon. This signature summer event will feature free sunrise balloon launches each morning, vibrant Night Glow celebrations, and activities for all ages. “Bend is more than a […]
Small business R&D tax credit proposal makes progress in CT legislature
State lawmakers have moved along a proposal to expand access to research and development tax incentives for small businesses, an effort that has failed in previous legislative sessions.
Starr Vegas Development proposes $10B sports and entertainment district on the Strip
A newly announced $10B development planned directly on the Las Vegas Strip is being pitched as a massive, year-round sports and entertainment hub -- and as a potential contender for an NBA-ready arena.
NSF lags in grant awards and Trump again proposes deep cuts to science
The latest science policy news.
After contentious debates, Lexington board approves Chevy Chase mental health clinic
The proposed 52-bed clinic from Roaring Brook has been accused by neighbors of being a drug rehab clinic. The company says otherwise.
Olivia Troye, former Pence adviser turned Trump critic, launches Democratic bid for US House from Virginia
Olivia Troye, a former adviser to Vice President Mike Pence, announced Tuesday that she would run for Congress as a Democrat in Virginia’s proposed new 7th District, pending passage of a sweeping redistricting referendum this month.
Gov. Wes Moore falls short in push to redraw Maryland's congressional map to boost Democrats
A proposal for a new Maryland congressional map has officially died with the conclusion of the state’s legislative session
Cheyenne residents protest proposed business park near Roundtop Road
CHEYENNE, Wyo. — The Cheyenne City Council faced pushback from local residents Monday evening during a public hearing regarding the proposed annexation
Quantum systems can remember and forget at the same time, scientists discover
Quantum systems can secretly “remember” their past—even when they appear not to. Scientists found that whether a system shows memory depends on how you look at it: through its evolving state or its measurable properties. Each perspective uncovers different kinds of memory, meaning a system can seem memoryless and memory-filled at the same time. This discovery could change how researchers design and control quantum technologies.
Senate Republican calls proposed NASA budget cuts a ‘mistake’
Republican Sen. Jerry Moran (R-Kan.) on Sunday criticized the Trump administration’s proposed cuts to NASA. “I think it would be a mistake to put money only in the missions related to explora…
Asphalt/concrete plant proposed for former Bentley’s entertainment complex
ASHLEY — Ashley Borough Council will hold a public hearing on Tuesday on a proposed rezoning of the property where the former Bentley’s entertainment complex sits to allow for the development of an asphalt/concrete processing plant.
Dallas ISD voters to decide largest school bond in state history
On May 2nd, voters living in Dallas ISD will decide whether to pay $33 more a year in property taxes to pay for a $6.2 billion bond package. The plan would build 26 new schools and make major upgrades to facilities and technology at every campus. Lone Star Politics speaks with Miguel Solis, former President of DISD Board of Trustees and now the President of the Commit Partnership.
THE WEEK OF APRIL 13, 2026
- Science groups criticize proposed budget cuts - Congress to hold budget hearings - White House abandons indirect costs case
Swalwell faces bipartisan push to expel him from the House
Florida Rep. Anna Paulina Luna plans to file a motion to expel Rep. Eric Swalwell on the grounds that he violated House rules by having an inappropriate sexual relationship with a subordinate.
Louisville proposing new sports arena near soccer stadium, per report
Louisville sports officials are reportedly engaged in an effort to build a new sports arena by 2028. The arena would be near Lynn Family Stadium.
Last Of Us Team Believed Crunch Necessary For Games At Its ‘Level’
The team is reportedly crunching again for Intergalactic: The Heretic Prophet
Democrat-Leaning Plan Takes Aim At Health Insurers With Proposed New Regulations
Healthcare initiatives being proposed like Patients' Bill of Rights offer a roadmap for Democrats’ priorities, with midterms looming and a presidential election in 2028.
FTRFS: New Fault-Tolerant File-System Proposed For Linux
Sent out today was an initial patch series for comment on introducing the FTRFS file-system
Assessing Six Flags Entertainment (FUN) Valuation After Rebrand And Recent Share Price Momentum
Six Flags Entertainment (FUN) has drawn investor attention after its recent rebranding from Cedar Fair, L.P. The newly named operator of amusement and water parks now reflects a unified identity across its North American properties. See our latest analysis for Six Flags Entertainment. The share price has climbed to US$19.94, with a 7 day share price return of 11.52% and a 30 day share price return of 24.70%. However, the 1 year total shareholder return of 38.07% and 5 year total shareholder...
Communication, Science & Society Initiative awards four interdisciplinary grants
The Communication, Science & Society Initiative, a research partnership between Penn State’s Huck Institutes of the Life Sciences and the Department of Communication Arts and Sciences in the College of the Liberal Arts, has announced the grant recipients from its 2025 request for proposals.
82 NASA missions at risk under new proposal
Proposed NASA cuts would reduce NASA’s workforce by thousands and cancel over 50 space missions.
County Tyrone: Campaigners claim gold mine plans would risk public health
Dalradian says its said it its proposals would "build an environmentally responsible project".
Belton 'Business Park' proposal draws neighbor pushback on warehouse development
Communities in Cass County, Missouri are changing each week, especially in Belton with new development projects popping up.
Building lots, commercial properties: See 28 latest business, apartment, land sales ($38K to $3.55M)
See a list of property sales in Onondaga County other than residential homes.
Conservation groups call for 'science-based' approach to Alberta grizzly bear hunt proposal
Conservation groups say recent calls for the provincial government to legalize the hunting of threatened grizzly bears in Alberta aren't justified by science due to a lack of up-to-date population studies.
JAXA's 22-Year Bet on Frozen Comet Samples: What a Multi-Decade Mission Timeline Means for Planetary Science Funding
In the world of planetary science, a decade-long mission is considered ambitious. JAXA, Japan’s space agency, is now weighing something far more audacious: a sample return mission that wouldn’t deliver its cargo until the late 2040s, more than 22 years from the earliest planning stages. The proposed Next Generation Small-Body Return (NGSR) mission to comet […]
Fantasy sports apps see increased usage by college students
In the past decade, the line between fantasy sports and sports betting has been blurred, propelling online sportsbooks and sportsbetting culture into the mainstream. Now, an increasing number of college students are latching on. Since the 1992 passing of the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act, shortened to PASPA, athletic leagues and lawmakers have fought...
Tested: Windows 11 just fixed slow storage management and removed a 30-year FAT32 limit
Windows 11 improves storage performance and removes FAT32 32GB limit. Disk properties now load faster in latest Insider builds.
Suspect in Molotov attack on Sam Altman linked to AI Discord
Authorities in San Francisco booked the suspect on Friday, and is facing several charges. Including arson of an inhabited structure or property.
KFF: US: Global health funding in the FY 2027 President’s budget request
The proposed budget includes significant reductions in and restructuring of global health funding, including the elimination of some programs and activities.
CVS Health Corporation (CVS): Legal Clarity and Core Strengths Support the Bull Case
CVS Health Corporation (NYSE:CVS) is one of the undervalued large cap stocks to buy. On March 25, UBS analyst Kevin Caliendo reiterated a Buy rating and $97 price target on CVS Health Corporation (NYSE:CVS). Caliendo said that CVS’s proposed settlement with the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) over insulin pricing could lift a major cloud that […]
Bill calls for mental health assessments be made available for all Virginia 6-12th graders
A proposed law would ask that mental health assessments be made available for all sixth-12th grade public school students in Virginia.
Why Ozempic doesn’t work for everyone: Scientists just found a hidden reason
A new study reveals that popular diabetes and weight-loss drugs like Ozempic and Wegovy may not work as effectively for about 10% of people due to specific genetic variants. These individuals appear to have a puzzling condition called “GLP-1 resistance,” where their bodies produce higher levels of the hormone targeted by these drugs—but don’t respond to it properly.
Scientists Finally Crack the Mystery of Water’s Strangest Behavior After Decades of Research
A hidden transition between two forms of liquid water may explain its most puzzling properties.
State floats major mental health funding shift that could jeopardize North Bay mobile crisis teams
The proposed shift would shoulder counties with as much as $130 million annually to sustain the programs. For many, it would open a gap they can’t fill.
Steelers trade proposal sends Nick Herbig to NFC powerhouse
Could the Steelers send Herbig out of Pittsburgh?
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
Sports betting gets mixed reviews from CT lawmakers five years later
One former top proponent of legalized sports betting now has serious concerns around the issue.
Trump Likes to Back Winners in Foreign Elections. the Upcoming Vote in Hungary Will Test His Clout
WASHINGTON (AP) — In Hungary, President Donald Trump and his top officials used social media and an election-eve trip to Budapest to promote the country’s far-right prime minister in his reelection campaign. In Argentina, the U.S. administration worked to prop up the country’s financial markets to ...
Billionaire Duff brothers wrongly got federal PPP loans, lawsuit says
Billionaire brothers Tommy and Jim Duff improperly took advantage of a COVID-era loan program meant to keep small businesses afloat, a lawsuit says.
Trump administration unveils renderings of its proposed gold-accented arch
Designs for a towering, gold-accented triumphal arch near Arlington National Cemetery were revealed by the White House on Friday – providing more insight into the latest iteration of President Donald Trump’s desire to mold the physical footprint of Washington, DC, into his own vision.
Science of seismic proportions
Arizona’s deserts might not be situated on a tectonic plate boundary where geographical activity can cause earthquakes, but that doesn’t make the state immune from the disturbance of tremors.It has been 139 years since Arizona’s strongest recorded earthquake on the Pitaycachi fault struck in 1887. The 7.5 magnitude event, known as the Sonoran Earthquake, took place near the southeastern Arizona-Mexico border.
Mamdani hits 100 days as mayor of New York City
As Mamdani, a Democrat, marks an early milestone in his mayoralty, it remains to be seen whether he’ll be able to leverage his fame into achieving the progressive policy proposals that propelled him to office.
Update on Proposed Dissolution of SBE Directorate at the National Science Foundation (NSF) -
On Friday, April 3, 2026, it was reported that interim leadership at the National Science Foundation announced during an internal all-staff meeting that they would preemptively start making moves to dissolve the SBE Directorate in [...]
MHA Submits Comments on Proposed Behavioral Health Medicaid Policy
The MHA recently submitted comments to the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services on proposed policy 2553-BH, which addresses reimbursement for specialty behavioral health services based on service location.
MSU transparency proposal for sports nonprofit gets pulled over dissent
The resolution would require that materials from any entity the university's administration created could be accessed by the public and the trustees.
NBA player prop picks, odds, predictions, free best bets: Model includes Deni Avdija on Friday, April 10
The SportsLine model has simulated every NBA game 10,000 times and revealed its best player prop bets
Scientists think dark matter might come in two forms
A mysterious glow of gamma rays at the center of the Milky Way has long hinted at dark matter, but the lack of similar signals in smaller dwarf galaxies has cast doubt on that idea. Now, researchers propose a bold twist: dark matter might not be a single particle at all, but a mix of two different types that must interact with each other to produce detectable signals.
Gravitational waves may be hidden in the light atoms emit
Scientists have proposed a surprising new way to detect gravitational waves—by observing how they change the light emitted by atoms. These waves can subtly shift photon frequencies in different directions, leaving behind a detectable signature. The effect doesn’t change how much light atoms emit, which is why it’s gone unnoticed until now. If confirmed, this approach could lead to ultra-compact detectors using cold-atom systems.
Group behind transgender school sports referendum opposes drafted ballot question wording
The group 'Protect Girls Sports in Maine' is taking issue with how ballot question is worded, arguing it is "not dutifully faithful to the proposed legislative text and has departed from the most critical language."
Sony Pictures Entertainment frames layoffs as a reset; ProPublica union conducts 24-hour strike as organization asks to explore AI more
Plus, a study about RTO and employee perception.
Slate of new Virginia laws address health care and housing affordability
Addressing health care and housing affordability were prominent pillars of Gov. Abigail Spanberger’s successful campaign and Virginia Democrats’ legislative agenda this year. Cost-conscious proposals saturated the 2026 legislative session and many have become law.
What's that demolition on Middlebrook Pike? A business with a deep history
This family-owned Knoxville business was a throwback to another era, and it closed last year. The property was sold for $450,000.
St. Petersburg Council advances $600M infrastructure bond proposal to Committee
Council took up the item without debate, reflecting desire to at least advance the conversation through the process despite likely debate.
Crossroads District businesses react to Royals stadium proposal near their neighborhood
Local business owners in the Crossroads District reacted to the city's new Royals stadium proposal two years after voters denied a sales tax extension for a downtown baseball stadium.
49ers land Steelers’ 16-sack edge rusher in trade proposal
The 49ers could use their draft capital to upgrade positions of need with veterans instead of rookies.
Sacramento crematorium plan faces scrutiny as neighbors raise health concerns
Confusion after local business cited for litter after reporting the issue to 311
A business owner along Central says the city cited him for weeds and litter the very day after he reported trash from a homeless encampment next to his property.