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Two added to DFA leadership team
Jim Hudson, Secretary of the Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration (DFA), announced Tuesday (July 21) two additions to DFA’s leadership team. Jessica Moore was named as State Budget Director....
Court deals blow to Biden’s bid to block release of recordings
A federal appeals court has decided that public interest in recordings of Joe Biden speaking about his life in politics in 2016 and 2017 outweighs any privacy claims
Ex-Giants Draft Pick Considered Breakout Coach For Broncos
The post-Tom Coughlin New York Giants culture has been horrible, but Davis Webb evidently learned a thing or two. The Giants' third-round pick of the 2017 NFL Draft was named as a breakout coaching candidate, while serving as the Denver Broncos offensive coordinator under ex-Giants coordinator Sean Payton. Webb spent two tours with the Giants, initially backing up both Eli Manning and Geno Smith during the controversial 2017 season under Ben McAdoo.
ESPN Expected to Lay Off NFL Insider Tom Pelissero
Pelissero had been at NFL Network since 2017.
Why Hybrid Healthcare Is a Business Imperative for Employers in Nevada
The Nevada Independent is a nonpartisan, nonprofit news and opinion website founded in 2017 by veteran political journalist and commentator Jon Ralston. The site and its supporting channels are focused on ethical, unbiased and transparent journalism. In general, we aim to gather and disseminate important public information and increase civic engagement.
Why Hybrid Healthcare Is a Business Imperative for Employers in Nevada
The Nevada Independent is a nonpartisan, nonprofit news and opinion website founded in 2017 by veteran political journalist and commentator Jon Ralston. The site and its supporting channels are focused on ethical, unbiased and transparent journalism. In general, we aim to gather and disseminate important public information and increase civic engagement.
Ernst Names Small Business of the Week, Taylor’s Maid-Rite
Read the release on Sen. Ernst's website HERE. Throughout this Congress, Chair Ernst plans to recognize a small business in every one of Iowa’s 99 counties. RED OAK, Iowa – U.S. Senator Joni Ernst (R-Iowa), Chair of the Senate Small Business Committee, today announced her Small Business of the Week: Taylor's Maid-Rite of Marshall County. Throughout the 119th Congress, Chair Ernst plans to recognize a small business in each of Iowa's 99 counties. "Taylor's Maid-Rite has truly maid their mark as a cornerstone of Marshalltown's business community," said Chair Ernst. "For nearly a century, this shop has served generations of Iowans with a signature burger made fresh every day. This 'Maid in Iowa' success story has proven that consistency, quality, and genuine customer care are the recipe for lasting success." Founded in the heart of Marshalltown, Taylor's Maid-Rite has remained a family-owned business for nearly a century and is now entering its fourth generation of Taylor family ownership. Best known for its signature Maid-Rite sandwich, the restaurant also serves classic American diner favorites, including malts, pies, fries, and sodas. Throughout its history, Taylor's Maid-Rite has remained committed to fresh ingredients, personalized service, and strong community involvement. Stay tuned as Chair Ernst continues to recognize outstanding Iowa small businesses with her Small Business of the Week award. ###
WAIC explainer: What is AI for Science?
What if artificial intelligence (AI) could help scientists make discoveries never before imagined?That's one of the themes at this year's World Artificial Intelligence Conference (WAIC) in Shanghai. It's called AI for Science. Simply put, it means using
New Official Ghost Recon Release Confirmed For PS5 and Xbox Series X
Ubisoft’s latest Ghost Recon Wildlands release could be the first sign of a long-awaited current-gen revival for the beloved 2017 shooter.
Not Greek to them. Scholars question Christopher Nolan\'s \'The Odyssey\'
Greek translator Emily Wilson finds the release of Christopher Nolan's film “The Odyssey” both gratifying and unsatisfying. Her 2017 translation of Homer's epic has surged in popularity. Nolan even cited
Jodi's Journal: The Sanford Sioux Falls story
"Dream with me." In one of Denny Sanford's final messages, Jodi captures what he meant to the story of Sioux Falls.
Denny Sanford leaves legacy in healthcare and beyond
Philanthropist, businessman, and Sanford Health namesake T. Denny Sanford has died age 90. He donated nearly $2 billion to Sanford Health.
Doctors question evidence behind Pentagon plan for testosterone screening
U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth this week ordered annual testosterone-deficiency screening for active-duty and reserve service members age 30 and older, which he says will help to maintain military readiness.
Ranking Member Markey, Senator Hirono Reject Trump’s SBA Policy Proposal that Harms Underserved Small Business Owners and Entrepreneurs
Letter (PDF) (Washington, July 17) – Ranking Member Edward J. Markey (D-Mass.) and Senator Mazie Hirono (D-Hawaii) submitted a comment letter to the Small Business Administration (SBA) opposing a proposed rule change by Trump’s SBA to the 8(a) Business Development Program that would harm underserved small business owners and entrepreneurs. The 8(a) Business Development Program was created by Congress more than 50 years ago to level the playing field for small business owners and entrepreneurs who have faced discrimination in starting and operating their businesses. The SBA’s proposed change ignores the existence of historic discrimination that minority and underserved small businesses have faced and continue to face. In the letter, the lawmakers wrote, “SBA’s proposed rule ignores present-day barriers that entrepreneurs from minority and underserved communities face. Discrimination is not dead; minority entrepreneurs continue to face reduced access to contracting opportunities and capital, as well as racial threats and targeting, including unequal treatment, refusal by others to work with minority-owned firms, being called racial slurs, and bias in the workplace. These barriers lead to wide underutilization of, and less revenue for, minority-owned businesses compared to majority-owned businesses, as supported by decades of disparity studies. The proposed rule diminishes the history of systemic racial and ethnic discrimination in the United States by claiming that remedies for discrimination create discrimination in and of themselves.” The lawmakers continued, “The program has always been open to anyone who can prove they have experienced prejudice or cultural bias in education, employment, entrepreneurship, and other facets of our society. Nonetheless SBA has moved forward with the proposed rule. It lacks a reasoned basis, purporting that the federal government has discriminated against White Americans, but offering no substantive qualitative or quantitative data or research in support. If the examples provided in the proposed rule are the only basis for what constitutes discrimination to the agency, they are woefully insufficient. The final rule must provide strong evidence that there is discrimination against White individuals and show how the rule is narrowly tailored to address it. The record remains devoid of evidence of discrimination against White individuals on the basis of race.” Ranking Member Markey is fighting to protect federal programs that address historic discrimination against small business owners from minority and underserved communities, and for a small business agenda that ensures economic opportunity for all. In June, Ranking Member Markey released a statement condemning the SBA’s proposed changes to the 8(a) Business Development Program. Also in June, Ranking Markey released a new report highlighting Trump’s drastic reduction in federal contracting dollars awarded to American small businesses, including minority-owned small businesses. In February, Ranking Member Markey, alongside Senators Hirono and Cory Booker (D-NJ), and Representative Ayanna Pressley (MA-7), introduced the Strengthening Place-based Access, Resources, and Knowledge (SPARK) Act to spur entrepreneurship and increase access to capital and resources for underserved entrepreneurs nationwide. Ranking Member Markey previously held a field hearing in Roxbury, Massachusetts, to discuss how government and the private sector can come together to make entrepreneurship more accessible for underserved communities. Earlier in February, Ranking Member Markey secured funding with the Appropriations Committee for Small Business Development Centers, Women’s Business Centers, SCORE Chapters, and Veterans Business Outreach Centers and provisions to rein in the Administration’s attempts to eliminate programs that support women, veterans, and underserved entrepreneurs. In January, Ranking Member Markey sent a letter to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau to oppose rule changes that would gut protections against discriminatory lending practices that harm small businesses. In December 2025, Ranking Member Markey sent a letter to SBA Administrator Kelly Loeffler expressing significant concerns with the SBA’s overly burdensome request and unclear guidance for extensive financial documentation over the holidays, as a part of their sweeping attempts to dismantle the 8(a) Business Development Program. In July and December 2025, Ranking Member Markey sent letters to the SBA Administrator demanding answers about the Trump administration’s efforts to limit economic opportunity for American entrepreneurs, including immigrants. In May 2025, Ranking Member Markey sent a letter to the SBA Administrator rejecting President Trump’s FY 2026 budget proposal and calling on SBA to immediately release funding for the entrepreneurial development programs, which include programs like the Women’s Business Centers and the Veteran’s Business Development Centers that support underserved small business owners. In April 2025, Ranking Member Markey introduced the New Start Act of 2025 to establish a five-year pilot program providing grants to support entrepreneurial development training for currently or formerly incarcerated individuals. In February 2025, Ranking Member Markey sent letters to the SBA Administrator and Government Accountability Office (GAO) condemning President Trump’s war on diversity, equity, inclusion, and accessibility (DEIA) policies and asking how the SBA intends to implement Trump’s anti-DEIA executive orders. ###
Long-term study shows how neighborhood conditions shape women's heart health
Women who live in disadvantaged neighborhoods face worse heart health and experience faster decline as they approach menopause, according to a long-term study led by the Harvard Pilgrim Health Care Institute.
New Business Licenses: 7.17.26
This week's businesses includes a pizzeria, masonry, dental care and more. (BizSense Pro required)
Chinese scientists have bad news on having babies in space
Researchers use China’s Tianzhou spacecraft missions since 2017 to study how microgravity and space radiation can affect biology.
Arkansas medical marijuana sales down through June
Medical marijuana sales in Arkansas were $140.3 million in the first six months of 2026, down 2.6% compared with the same period in 2025 when sales totaled $144 million, the...
Arkansas medical marijuana sales down through June
Medical marijuana sales in Arkansas were $140.3 million in the first six months of 2026, down 2.6% compared with the same period in 2025 when sales totaled $144 million, the...
EU Top Court Backs Amnesty for Catalan Independence Leaders
The European Union’s top court ruled in favor of a Spanish law granting amnesty to Catalan politicians who held a referendum for the region’s independence in 2017, handing Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez a political boost.
Suspect arrested for murder in deadly beating outside Las Vegas business
Authorities say they've arrested a suspect in connection with the deadly beating of a man outside a Las Vegas business last week.
Joey, Jesse Buss pursuing NBA Europe ownership: Sources
NBA commissioner Adam Silver said Tuesday that NBA Europe is expected to make decisions regarding bids in the upcoming weeks.
Call for AANHPI voices for science funding
When the Chinatown-International District in Seattle hosted the world’s largest dim sum party, it was easy to celebrate how a diverse community comes together for a family style meal.
Reddit questions if AI data deals could hurt its ad business
Reddit's advertising edge is its community data. Now it's debating whether selling that data to AI undercuts it.
I’ve attended 1,000+ sporting events. Here are my top five stadium essentials
What you take with you, or leave at home, can have a big influence on how much you enjoy the experience
Fifth Measles Case of 2026 Confirmed by Wyoming Department of Health
The Wyoming Department of Health (WDH) has confirmed a fifth case of measles in Wyoming in 2026, and the fourth in Teton County. The case is an adult with no identified links to the previous three Teton County cases. Measles is a highly contagious virus that can cause severe illness. The public may have […]
Fourth Measles Case of 2026 Confirmed by Wyoming Department of Health
The Wyoming Department of Health (WDH) has confirmed a third case of measles in Teton County, marking the state’s first measles outbreak of 2026. The case is an adult with an unknown vaccination status and is linked to the previous two Teton County cases through the same chain of transmission. Measles is a highly contagious […]
No political action in the summer? Think again.
Political yard signs and ads are months away, but local parties and candidates are quietly preparing for that time when they will go all-out in an election year.
Small business spotlight: Lockwood Cafe
In the Ontario neighborhood of Ames is Lockwood Cafe. Opened in 2017 by Sharon Stewart, the cafe serves as a community-first space. This is reflected in the businesses around it, its connections to other businesses in Ames, and its patrons. Stewart shared how the business started and how its neighborhood is vital to the cafe’s...
49ers' 2017 draft pick retires after 80 games in NFL
He did his best to stick around the league.
Guggenheim Museum among NYC buildings that tested positive for Legionnaires’ amid disease outbreak
The city health department on Friday released a list of 31 buildings on the Upper East Side that have been ordered to clean and disinfect their cooling towers as the city deals with the latest outbreak of the disease.
Road closures from Moore Equity in Mental Health 5K hits DC Saturday
The Moore Equity in Mental Health 5K takes place in D.C. on Saturday, leading to road closures and parking restrictions.
Nevada sees drop in health insurance marketplace enrollment as subsidies lapse
Higher premiums are causing thousands of Nevadans to drop their Affordable Care Act coverage, raising concerns about healthcare affordability.
The McLaren 788HS is the Marque's First New Car Since 2024
McLaren's first new supercar since 2024 is the 788HS, which is also the ultimate version of the mid-engine 720S that debut in 2017.
Oregon pushes mpox vaccines as more serious type of virus spreads
Community transmission of a more serious type of mpox virus is increasing in several countries. Here's what health officials want Oregonians to know.
Jack Latvala, a master of Florida politics sidelined by scandal, dies
Jack Latvala, a towering force in Florida politics whose rise helped shape the GOP and whose fall ended a gubernatorial bid, died at 74.
Rochester seeks developers for last vacant Science Park sites
Rochester is seeking developers for two vacant Science Park parcels near CityGate and UR, targeting research, office and manufacturing projects.
Dynamic New Entertainment Venue Coming To Pittsburgh
The number of entertainment options on Pittsburgh's North Shore will continue to grow with the opening of Mic Drop. Get the details here.
Pittsburgh Entertainment Location Institutes Chaperone Policy
Adult supervision for minors will now be required at this popular Pittsburgh summer attraction.. Get the details here.
Summer barbecues can raise risk of foodborne illness, health expert says
As backyard barbecues and outdoor gatherings become more common during the summer, health experts are reminding people that warmer temperatures can also increas
Construction to Begin on I-94 Business Loop Near Valley City
VALLEY CITY, N.D. (NDDOT) – The North Dakota Department of Transportation is scheduled to begin a structure replacement project along the Interstate 94 Business Loop, east of Valley City, on Monday, July 6. Improvements include replacing the
America’s entrepreneurial boom begins long before venture capital
Latino-owned businesses added 180,000 net new firms between 2017 and 2023 while white-owned firms declined — and the talent pipeline behind that growth runs through Minority-Serving Institutions now facing funding uncertainty.
The World Cup is just now discovering Middle America’s big heart. These Irish bingo kingpins built a $24 million business knowing it all along
Craig Reynolds and Will Meara launched Bingo Loco in a Dublin basement in 2017. Nine years later, Locomotive sells a million tickets a year in 300 cities.
Rhode Island Marijuana Officials Ask Judge To Remove Block On Business Licenses Now That Rules Targeted By Lawsuit Have Changed
“We’re hopeful that once we get the go-ahead with the appropriate people that we can get the process moving again.” By Christopher Shea, Rhode Island Current Now that Rhode Island has eliminated the residency requirement for recreational pot shop owners, the state’s Cannabis Control Commission is asking a federal judge to undo the court order […]
New Business Licenses: 7.2.26
Restaurants, bakeries, carpentry and janitorial services are some of this week's licenses from Chesterfield and Henrico. (BizSense Pro required)
This satellite constellation transformed earth science by creatively tuning in to GPS signals
Governments and companies have launched similar constellations to use the method, called GNSS-R, to monitor and forecast wildfires, flooding and more.
Environmental artist talks science comics, the Gulf of Maine and animal sexuality
In her debut work of nonfiction,‘Poking the Squid,’ Perrin Roosevelt Ireland, artist-in-residence at the New York Aquarium, looks at animal life with a feminist lens.
BWF unveils 2027-28 calendar; India Open moves to February next year: Indian Sports LIVE, June 30
Here are all the updates from Indian sports on June 30, 2026.
Half of states sue over Medicaid work requirements
FDA peptide panelists, a new study on Covid and flu shots, and more health news from Morning Rounds
What Norris Center in Naples offers 2 years after Playhouse exit
Two years after Gulfshore Playhouse's departure from the Norris Community Center, the venue's event calendar is full with broader entertainment offerings.
Live Results: Colorado midterm primaries
The Democratic gubernatorial primary between U.S. Sen. Michael Bennet and state Attorney General Phil Weiser will not only determine who might lead Colorado, but it could also create an opening in the closely divided U.S. Senate.
Trafalgar Entertainment acquires Nicholas Hytner’s Bridge theatre
London Theatre Company founded in 2017 by Hytner and former National Theatre colleague Nick Starr has been sold to company that owns 20-plus venues in UK and abroad
Lingering distrust, low vaccine rates threaten containment of Lancaster measles outbreak
LANCASTER, Pa. — A growing distrust of health professionals seems to be undermining their efforts in central and southeastern Pennsylvania to stop...
Scientists mull controversial plan to steer hurricanes
It might sound like science fiction, but some scientists say we have tools that could be used to disrupt natural disasters. Others are skeptical.
‘A total fairytale’: Former Watergate prosecutor reacts to Vance’s comments on the scandal
Supreme Court rules in weedkiller cancer case
Dems want to unmask Eli Lilly's obesity drug user, a new genome-editing tool raises ethics questions, and more health news
New Business Licenses: 6.26.26
Psychology services, masonry, consulting, signs and more in this week's list. (BizSense Pro required)
Making Our Own Luck
We are cross-posting a piece that former NIH official Kris Willis wrote for Macroscience. Kris is now the President and Founder of the Woodley Park Institute, for which I’m a board member. Picking winners or hedging bets? Federal science agencies have long wrestled with the question of how to ensure their billions of dollars of grants and contracts result in maximum benefits for Americans. On the surface, it might seem that a goal-oriented, interventionist style of management would be the best policy: prioritize our most pressing problems and distribute funding accordingly.This top-down strategy creates a unique hazard, though: bad choices can send resources in the wrong direction, resulting in slow progress that impedes the delivery of tangible benefits to citizens. Moreover, if decision makers pursue an applied advance when the underlying scientific principles remain poorly understood, they risk costly failures and a loss of support for the research enterprise at large. Examples include Nixon’s 1971 War on Cancer, undertaken on the premise that a cure could be achieved in less than a decade, the drive to build an operational commercial fusion plant by the mid-1990s, and the National Plan to Address Alzheimer’s Disease, which failed to produce the effective treatments and prevention strategies promised by 2025. The contrasting laissez-faire approach is to hedge your bets. If the path to an advance is impossible to predict, then the wisest choice might be to distribute funding to as widely as possible. The main risk of this strategy is that spreading funding thinly may limit the resources available to the most promising research, resulting in the same negative outcomes as the interventionist approach: limited support for the most promising topics, slow progress, and delayed returns. In reality, at science agencies like the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health, program managers navigate between these two extremes, setting some funds aside to target high-priority areas and using the rest to cover the widest possible range of meritorious proposals. This middle path seems like the most rational way to proceed, but it still requires making choices. How much should be set aside for high priority topics? What should those topics be? How should we define merit? Expert opinion can provide a helpful guide, but leading experts can have remarkably different opinions about what matters and what should be prioritized. Moreover, experts and administrators alike can be risk averse, giving an edge to high-profile, well-established concepts. What’s really needed is a data-driven framework to help guide decision-making, one that doesn’t simply repackage prestige or incumbency. Recognizing breakthroughs years in advance Many breakthroughs fail to attract funding or recognition at the earliest stages of development. Katalin Karikó, for example, spent years struggling to win grants for work on mRNA that would eventually win her and Drew Weissman a Nobel Prize. Similar stories can be told about Jim Allison’s groundbreaking studies leading to the development of cancer immunotherapy, Stan Pruisner’s demonstration that prions can self-replicate without DNA, or Robin Warren and Barry Marshall’s proof that Helicobacter pylori, not stress, causes ulcers. Yet at some point, the scientific community recognizes and responds to transformative breakthroughs like these. How does that change happen? And what if science funders could identify the areas that are on the cusp of a breakthrough? Those questions led my collaborators and me to study how scientists responded to past breakthroughs. Based on patterns in that data, we developed a means of predicting future breakthroughs, using biomedicine as a proof of concept. It’s worth taking a moment to describe how our approach works. Briefly, our prediction process begins by grouping the 18 million or so peer-reviewed papers in PubMed, the authoritative database of biomedical research, into roughly 50,000 unique topics. A small subset of these topics are so widely acclaimed as breakthroughs that they have been recognized with a major prize like a Nobel or a Lasker Award. We theorized that studying the development of these outliers over time, especially before they gained acclaim, was the key to identifying future instances of them. After defining topics, we chose 21 representative breakthroughs and asked what they looked like before they won prestigious prizes. To answer that question, we re-ran our topic-mapping algorithm repeatedly, winding back the clock one year each time, stringing together the years to follow the progress of each field as it grew and advanced. We found that in each case, the years leading up to a discovery followed a pattern: a burst of papers on a new, rapidly evolving topic, many of which quickly became influential. These characteristics—the percent of papers that are new, the percentage of papers that are brought in from other topics, and the influence of each individual paper—can all be measured separately for any given topic. Together, they act as a predictive signal that is detectable an average of five years before a transformative discovery is made, and up to thirty years before the discovery receives a major prize. Scanning the current research landscape for topics that display this signal allows us to predict what work will likely produce a future breakthrough. Each year we analyzed includes four or five signals, a number that appears to have remained constant across a twenty year time frame. In their classic work on the sociology of science, Bruno Latour and Steve Woolgar established that the desire to participate in a major discovery is an important motivator for scientists as they consider whether they should take up (or abandon) a research problem. Although further work is needed, the simplest explanation for our results is that this behavior is widespread enough to detect at scale. A foundational advance, or something like it, draws the attention of scientists and causes them to change the direction of their research. They vote with their feet, staking their own reputation and careers by publishing on and citing the new idea. That upswell of interest is the foundation of our breakthrough signal. What kind of research does our model identify as a breakthrough? After building a model based on the patterns in our 21 preselected breakthroughs, we tested it by identifying all early signals of discovery from 1994 through 1997. Of the 18 signals we found in that time period, 17 can be traced forward in time to a breakthrough. Examples include super-resolution fluorescence microscopy (see the image above), the directed evolution of proteins and enzymes (Chemistry Nobel, 2018), and sequencing the human genome (National Medal of Science, 2008). The discovery of the role of leptin signaling in obesity is a particularly interesting case study. Around 1950, scientists noticed the existence of a type of lab mouse that suffered from a unique inherited form of obesity. When given the freedom to choose their own diet, these mice ate more than normal and preferred food that was high in fat. Researchers had few clues as to why the animals overate; early experiments pointed to the existence of a soluble ob factor found circulating in the bloodstream that regulated appetite, but its identity was unknown. In 1994, Jeffrey Friedman and colleagues identified and sequenced the ob gene, noting that the protein it encoded appeared to fit the profile of a circulating factor. A year later, a trio of high-profile publications demonstrated that ob was a hormone that regulated body weight and fat deposition by regulating appetite. One of these was co-authored by Friedman, who christened it leptin from the ancient Greek word for thin. Using our model, the data from 1996 make it clear this advance would become a breakthrough. Scientists had flocked to study the biology of the new hormone, generating the flurry of new papers and citations required to produce a signal. One of these demonstrated that serum leptin concentrations reflected the amount of adipose tissue in the human body, providing clinical validation of the earlier mouse studies. Before the identification of leptin, scientists were unable to point to a specific molecule that controlled appetite and adiposity, so that it was impossible to rule out non-physiological causes of obesity; its characterization fundamentally changed our concept of weight gain. In 2010, Friedman and fellow pioneer Douglas Coleman were awarded a Lasker for the discovery. Our work also identifies breakthroughs in clinical practice and behavioral and social sciences, even though these areas are less likely to draw the attention of major prize committees. One example that falls into this category is the introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair, a minimally invasive surgical procedure for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm, a leading cause of death among Americans over the age of 65. Relative to the previous standard of care, it reduces in-hospital mortality by almost four-fold. In 2017, Timothy Chuter received the American College of Surgeons’ prestigious Jacobsen Innovation award for his multiple refinements to the technique. Another under-recognized breakthrough identified by our model is the development of standardized survey instruments to assess the quality of life for HIV+ patients. The antiretroviral cocktails introduced in the mid-1990s reduced AIDS mortality, but treatment came with serious side effects. The new evaluations showed that patients whose disease progressed had worse physical functioning than Americans with other chronic diseases, while those who were asymptomatic maintained a health-related quality of life on par with the overall US population. This evidence made it possible for patients and activists to argue that even in the absence of a total cure, and in spite of the side effects, alleviation of symptoms was a worthwhile priority for clinicians. My colleagues and I have failed to identify any significant recognition for the physicians and health policy experts who pioneered this advance, although in 2016, researchers called for the World Health Organization to set targets for good health-related quality of life as part of its framework to end the AIDS pandemic. From forecasting to funding How should science funders use our predictions? Any serious discussion of what we should do with this new capability needs to begin with an understanding of its limitations. We can’t (and shouldn’t) invest all of our resources in the small number of topics predicted to produce breakthroughs. Innovative new fields are born from existing ones; they rarely arise de novo. If funders don’t maintain a diverse portfolio, the breakthroughs of tomorrow will have no antecedents. Think of this as eating the seed corn, or killing the goose that lays the golden egg. There are also multiple goals of funding beyond basic scientific discovery, including translating discoveries into clinical practice, developing new technologies, supporting economic development, and training new scientists. The investments needed to accomplish these goals are likely different from those required to support emerging breakthroughs. Finally, we must be aware that we may not capture every instance of a breakthrough. The concept is fuzzy, and not every significant discovery is recognized with a major award. Further, breakthroughs are rare, meaning that our dataset is, by necessity, small. This makes formal estimates of accuracy challenging. Although our overall success rate appears to be high, any one signal may turn out to be a false positive. We found one apparent example: the development of the third generation COX-2 inhibitors, Vioxx and Celebrex, which were much celebrated in the early 2000s as effective but non-addictive pain relievers, meets all the algorithmic criteria of a breakthrough. Five years after it received FDA approval, researchers demonstrated that Vioxx was associated with serious cardiovascular complications, and the manufacturer voluntarily pulled the drug from the market. Celebrex remains available, although like other NSAIDs, it carries an FDA warning for increased cardiovascular risk. Decision makers who were overly focused on the breakthrough potential of this research might have wasted substantial resources nurturing an area that ultimately proved to be a failure—but so would those who relied on expert opinion at the time. That said, the potential benefits of funding the next mRNA vaccine or cancer immunotherapy years earlier than we might have are large. When we can’t assume the outcome of an action, it’s worth conducting an experiment. Can targeted support for areas that are poised to produce a breakthrough increase the return on scientific investment without cannibalizing future advances? With the necessary administrative infrastructure in place, conducting this experiment would be straightforward. First, identify all the breakthrough signals between 2018 and 2023, select half at random, and commit to a decade of investment. For biomedicine, a six year window should yield about 30 topics with the potential to produce a breakthrough. Providing strong support to half of these might be accomplished for $300 million a year. That’s roughly half of the recent annual budget of the NIH Common Fund or around 20% of the fiscal year 2025 budget for ARPA-H. After five years, then again at ten, compare to see which group — the one that was actively managed, or the control — produced more breakthroughs, and on what timescale. Although we used biomedicine as an example, the same experiment could just as well be run for physics, materials science, or any other discipline. Any attempt to undertake such an experiment should keep three points top of mind. First, we can predict the topic of future breakthroughs, but the people and vision for how to move the work forward are still important. In practice, this means success requires active program managers with the expertise to develop the science and the authority to do so, including by recruiting investigators. Second, we would be wise to learn from the failures of past attempts to fund transformative research. High among these are funding modestly repackaged work, confusing the genuinely novel with the merely unfamiliar, and relying too much on incumbent investigators. All of these risks can be mitigated by thoroughly and intelligently integrating high quality data into portfolio management. Finally, we need to have patience. Even with strong funding support, producing a breakthrough takes time. If supporting breakthroughs is the best way to nurture the birth of new fields, we also need to accurately describe and properly manage the other two stages, so that we invest wisely throughout the productive lifetime of ideas and divest once they reach the point of diminishing returns. We would benefit from more study of all of these phases, especially the transition from one to another. More research could answer questions like: When does a breakthrough become an established field? How do the availability of funding, the size and characteristics of the available workforce, and the accumulation of evidence that disagrees with prevailing models affect a field’s decline? Exactly how do old ideas give birth to new ones, and can we speed up the process? The more we understand about the dynamics of scientific progress, the better we can maximize the odds that our curiosity leads to results. I’d call that finding a way to make our own luck.
State health officials investigate Novi death, illnesses after dialysis
Police say no evidence of foul play in death, sicknesses following dialysis at DaVita.
NJ Legislators Push for End to Corporate Money in Politics
NJ Legislators Push for End to Corporate Money in Politics New Legislation Would Redefine “Corporation” Under State Law to Disallow Political Spending SUMMIT, N.J.—Assemblymembers Andrew Macurdy, Chigozie Onyema, and Maureen Rowan today announced a bill that would bring an end to corporate spending on politics in New Jersey. The bill alters the definition of “corporation”[...]
Man arrested 9 years after business manager killed outside Charlotte shop
The deadly shooting happened on Fugate Avenue in August 2017.
A look at Virginia athletics under Carla Williams
Earlier this month, Silver Waves Media named the University of Virginia’s Carla Williams as one of its 70 top athletic directors in the country who are “leading the way through exceptional leadership, vision and a dedication to elevating the student-athlete experience.” Williams, who joined Virginia athletics in the fall of 2017, has led a transformative […]
DOJ may be able to release potentially embarrassing Biden audio recordings unless courts step in
Former President Joe Biden is in an uphill battle to try to stop the Justice Department from sharing recordings it collected of him speaking to his ghostwriter in 2016 and 2017, during which his speech and memory faltered.
5 Florida restaurants, breweries that host weekly trivia nights
Several Treasure Coast bars, breweries and restaurants host trivia nights. Here are 5 to try. What's your trivia forte?
Here's to dad jokes and the hilarious Tennessee fathers who tell them
We had a great time this month talking to some outstanding Tennessee comedians, but the real gems were submitted by these local readers.
Business just got a new partner
The business community is ready to be a full partner in the work ahead.
From Hyde Park to the White House: how Barack Obama's political rise unfolded
Katie Couric (@katiecouric)
3,068 likes, 268 comments - katiecouric on June 17, 2026: "Rahm Emanuel has been a major force in Democratic politics for decades—from congressman and White House chief of staff to mayor of Chicago and U.S. ambassador to Japan. As the 2026 midterms approach, he joined me on Next Question to discuss President Trump's second term, why Democrats "lost the plot," why he believes the U.S. should end taxpayer-funded military aid to Israel, and what it will take for the party to reconnect with voters and regain lost ground. 🎧 Watch the full interview on YouTube or listen wherever you get your podcasts.".
Popular blues/rock singer bringing his music to Modesto theater. See when, where
It’s one of several entertainment options coming up in the Modesto and Mother Lode regions.
Packers voice opposition to major changes to Sports Broadcasting Act
The Packers have come out against any significant changes to the Sports Broadcasting Act in a statement on Tuesday.
Packers voice opposition to major changes to Sports Broadcasting Act
The Packers have come out against any significant changes to the Sports Broadcasting Act in a statement on Tuesday.
Merchants of Doubt and the attacks on Extreme Event Attribution science
Last week, I attended a meeting at Columbia University on attribution science and climate law, hosted by the Sabin Center. It was a fantastic event, bringing together scientists and legal experts working at the intersection of extreme event attribution and climate law. Subscribe For those unfamiliar with it, extreme event attribution attempts to quantify the contribution of climate change to an extreme event. For example, several groups analyzed the impact of climate change on Hurricane Harvey’s enormous rainfall totals over Houston, Texas and they found that climate change increased rainfall by 15 to 38%. One thing that came up again and again was how terrified fossil-fuel interests are of extreme event attribution science. They are acutely aware that this research could land them in court. And losing those cases would leave them legally liable for billions of dollars in climate damages. Because the legal stakes are so high, the blowback has turned ugly. I spoke with several scientists at the meeting who are facing ongoing harassment over their work. This blowback is a coordinated campaign to make the entire field look suspect. The goal is to create the impression that attribution science is too uncertain, too political, or too conflicted to be useful in court or in public policy. The strategy is not based on actual science or evidence of misconduct, but on the generation of doubt. The new Merchants of Doubt We’ve seen this before. In fact, not that long ago: We only have to go back a year to the Department of Energy (DOE) Climate Working Group (CWG) report to see an example of using doubt as the tool to push back against well-established science. This strategy is laid out in an email from a member of the CWG, Dr. Roy Spencer, that was released during litigation over the Climate Working Group process. The key quote is: About all I can hope is that what we write will provide sufficient “reasonable scientific doubt” regarding the science claims in the 2009 TSD [technical support document], based upon almost 2 decades of new science, to call into question the original reasoning for the EPA Administrator’s decision that CO2 presents a threat to human health and welfare. This statement is strong evidence that at least some members of the committee were working to support a particular policy outcome: revoking the Endangerment Finding. The email also explains how they planned to do it: by attempting to generate “reasonable doubt”. This is going to be hard, Spencer implies. Despite falsely claiming that “2 decades of new science” weakens the case, Spencer explicitly acknowledges that the actual peer-reviewed science of climate change overwhelmingly rejects his position: But if the science argument is decided upon by a vote, or by the number of published citations, we lose the science argument. We can go back even further: This CWG email shares unmistakable DNA with the infamous 1969 tobacco memo that declared: “Doubt is our product, since it is the best means of competing with the ‘body of fact’ that exists in the mind of the general public. It is also the means of establishing a controversy.” The tobacco memo also acknowledges the limit of this strategy: Like the CWG, they knew the science was not on their side. Share The new new Merchants of Doubt The people attacking the IPCC chapter on extreme event attribution are the newest iteration of the Merchants of Doubt. Their goal, like all Merchants before them, is to introduce doubt into the process. Because the report is not even out yet, they cannot attack its conclusions. So they are attacking the authors instead. Here is a press release from the House Science, Space, and Technology Committee: In the letter, the Chairmen express concerns about potential conflicts of interest involving members of the Attribution Committee, stating that “publicly available information suggests a troubling pattern” in which committee members are affiliated with nonprofits that support climate accountability lawsuits, “raising the appearance of impropriety and member bias.” To be clear, this is just innuendo. There is no actual evidence of bias. And given the robust process that these reports go through, including multiple lines of peer review, it seems very unlikely that significant bias can survive into the report. When the report comes out, critics will have the opportunity to make legitimate criticisms of the report — if any exist. If none do, however, they’ll still make criticisms, but they’ll be bogus, simply designed to generate doubt. We’ll see. A note to the press: Fix your frame To any journalists reading this: The public debate over extreme event attribution science is not going away. The science is simply too dangerous to fossil-fuel interests for them to stop fighting it. You very well might be assigned to write an article about this area of research in the future. When you do, do not automatically adopt the framing that climate misinformers want you to use. They want you to frame the story around questions like: Are climate scientists trying to put their thumb on the scale to achieve a predetermined, politically motivated result? Are climate scientists improperly letting their politics invade the science of the IPCC? That frame is a trap. Instead, you need to view this through the historical lens of the Merchants of Doubt. How does the ecosystem of doubt operate? Who funds it? What methods do they use to misrepresent science and slime researchers? What scientific results are they trying to keep people from understanding are legitimate? Ultimately, you instead need to focus your article on the generation of doubt as a way to maintain the fossil fuel industry’s social and legal license to keep burning oil, gas, and coal. If you treat the misinformers’ frame as a legitimate, good-faith scientific critique, you are helping them produce doubt. Don’t do it. Don’t be a Merchant of Doubt. Thanks for reading The Climate Brink! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support our work. Subscribe other stuff The Staying Curious Substack has an interesting post about the different flavors of climate sensitivity. This is crucial information if you want to understand how scientists think about how much warming the Earth will experience. I’d be grateful if you could hit the like button ❤️ below! It helps more people discover these ideas and lets me know what’s connecting with readers.
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