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Top Doctor Sounds Alarm Over Serious Health Concern for Trump, 79
President Donald Trump is set to visit the hospital for the third time in 13 months.
Steelers' Broderick Jones Has Alarming 'Weight' Worry
A lingering neck injury and significant offseason weight loss leave the former first-round pick’s status in doubt as he fights for his future during a pivotal contract year.
The Dreamie alarm clock got me to stop using my phone in bed
What sets Dreamie apart from all of the other fancy alarm clocks is laughably simple: It can play podcasts.
People with eating disorders are taking GLP-1s and doctors are alarmed
Providers said they are encountering patients seeking treatment for anorexia, bulimia and binge eating disorder who are taking GLP-1 drugs.
Common pesticide linked to hidden brain damage, scientists warn
Scientists have uncovered alarming new evidence that a common insecticide may leave lasting marks on the developing brain before a child is even born. Researchers studying New York City children found that prenatal exposure to chlorpyrifos — a pesticide once widely used indoors and still used in agriculture — was linked to widespread brain abnormalities and weaker motor skills years later.
Bonus 228: The $1.776B Political Question
Every so often a story comes along that is so brazen, so cleanly emblematic of the moment we are living through, that staying quiet about it feels like a kind of complicity unto itself. Monday’s announcement by the Department of Justice that the Acting Attorney General has unilaterally created a $1.776 billion “Anti-Weaponization Fund” to compensate so-called “victims of lawfare” is one of those stories. And the reason I want to write about it here, in a newsletter ostensibly devoted to the Supreme Court and the law and politics surrounding it, is that I’m increasingly worried that we’re asking the wrong institution to save us from one of the most offensive, alarming, and anti-constitutional things we’ve seen from any president in American history. As I explain below the fold, the Anti-Weaponization Fund is not principally a legal problem awaiting a judicial fix. It is a shockingly egregious political abuse—the President suing his own government, purporting to settle with himself, and routing nearly $2 billion from the Treasury to his own supporters as a not-so-subtle (and not-so-formal) reward, if not an incentive, for political violence. And the Constitution’s answer to political abuses of this kind and magnitude is a political remedy, not a legal one. In his majority opinion in NFIB v. Sebelius (the Affordable Care Act case from 2012), Chief Justice Roberts defended the Court’s endorsement of Congress’s power to adopt the individual mandate by noting that it is “not our job to protect the people from the consequences of their political choices.” As much of a judicial supremacist as I am, that sentiment is, for better or worse, an entirely correct (and, in the long term, normatively desirable) institutional assessment. One can believe in substantial judicial power without believing that literally every political dispute in our country can and should be resolved by unelected judges. The real upshot of this latest headline (among so, so many other similar headlines) is that it is past time to reinvigorate impeachment—not because conviction is realistic in this Senate, or even because impeachment itself is feasible in this House, but because forcing every member of Congress to vote on the record whether this brazen, corrosive, and affirmatively dangerous corruption is impeachable is itself a point worth fighting for (and fighting with our friends over). Assuming the courts will save us absolves our political leaders of both responsibility and accountability for allowing this kind of mischief to continue, and it absolves all of us of our responsibility to refuse to tolerate those who would just as quickly shrug their shoulders and move on. For those who aren’t paid subscribers, we’ll be back (no later than) Monday with our continuing coverage of the Supreme Court. For those who are, please read on.
Ebola outbreak raises alarms about Trump's global health moves
Public health experts fear the administration's actions have weakened critical health networks.
New surgeon general’s advisory raises alarm about screen time risks for kids and teens
Too much screen use among kids and teens – including endless social media scrolling, nonstop texting and hours of video games – can be harmful, and it has become a public health concern in the United States, according to a surgeon general’s advisory released Wednesday.
Dem who welcomed socialist mayor's 'change' now sounding alarm over billionaire exodus: 'Gravely concerned'
A Seattle Democratic councilmember who once welcomed socialist Mayor Katie Wilson now admits he is "gravely concerned" about the city's business exodus.
Trump’s Taiwan ‘negotiating chip’ remark sparks alarm over how far he'd shift US-China policy
Trump suggests $14 billion Taiwan weapons package could be used as leverage in China negotiations, drawing swift pushback from Taiwan's president.
Health workers race to respond to Congo's fast-spreading Ebola outbreak
Medical personnel were rushing on Monday to the frontlines of a new Ebola outbreak in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo whose late detection and quick spread have alarmed health experts.
Those GTA 6 Preorder Rumors Appear To Be Another False Alarm
Reports stemming from alleged emails from Best Buy pointed to a Monday start for preorders.
Ebola outbreak in Africa spurs global health emergency declaration
With hundreds of suspected cases and dozens of deaths already reported, the World Health Organization (WHO) is sounding the alarm about an Ebola disease outbreak by declaring a global health emergency.
Band of tech entrepreneurs sounds alarm on Colorado’s business climate
By Vince Bzdek It’s really not a headline you want to see in the national press: “Entrepreneurs Flocked to Colorado. Now Red Tape Is Driving Some Away” warned a recent Wall Street Journal article. “A vocal band of Colorado software engineers and venture capitalists,” wrote the author, “are increasingly grumbling that their tech haven in […]
Band of tech entrepreneurs sounds alarm on Colorado’s business climate
By Vince Bzdek It’s really not a headline you want to see in the national press: “Entrepreneurs Flocked to Colorado. Now Red Tape Is Driving Some Away” warned a recent Wall Street Journal article. “A vocal band of Colorado software engineers and venture capitalists,” wrote the author, “are increasingly grumbling that their tech haven in […]
Band of tech entrepreneurs sounds alarm on Colorado’s business climate
By Vince Bzdek It’s really not a headline you want to see in the national press: “Entrepreneurs Flocked to Colorado. Now Red Tape Is Driving Some Away” warned a recent Wall Street Journal article. “A vocal band of Colorado software engineers and venture capitalists,” wrote the author, “are increasingly grumbling that their tech haven in […]
Unfortunately, the iPhone 18 Pro is warping the Android world
Apple's influence, led by the upcoming iPhone 18 Pro, is seeping into the Android world alarmingly fast.
Health officials raise alarm over new Ebola outbreak in DR Congo
Concern is high regarding the potential spread of the virus amid a precarious security situation in the affected area.
‘One of the most important living laboratories’: Scientists raise alarms over push by Lee, Maloy to scrap Grand Staircase-Escalante plan
Scientists are asking Congress to keep the 2025 management plan for Grand Staircase-Escalante National Monument, what they call “one of the most important living laboratories in North America.”
Workers in Penn State Health operating rooms raised alarms about safety, sterilization
This story was produced by the State College regional bureau of Spotlight PA, an independent, nonpartisan newsroom dedicated to investigative and public-service journalism for Pennsylvania. Si…
Workers in Penn State Health operating rooms raised alarms about safety, sterilization
This story was produced by the State College regional bureau of Spotlight PA, an independent, nonpartisan newsroom dedicated to investigative and public-service...
Sterilization problems raised alarm inside Penn State Health
Internal records describe harrowing situations as Milton S. Hershey Medical Center struggled to keep a usable supply of sterile tools for surgeries last year.
Amid elevated disaster risks Tahoe cannot afford tourism business-driven governance
Local and state governments in 2026 are under more pressure than ever to provide services. These new realities and an uncertain summer came into sharp relief recently in Nevada. During the state’s joint interim standing Government Affairs meeting, lawmakers received an alarming update from Nevada’s head of Emergency Management and Homeland Security about strained disaster […]
Thousands of Scientists Sign Letter to Combat Science Board’s Firing
Thousands of Scientists Sign Letter to Combat Science Board’s Firing: The signatories, including more than 35 Nobel laureates, decry the “alarming attack on the ability of the US to engage in basic and applied research”
Fetterman weighs in after PA Supreme Court justice apparently splits from Democratic Party over antisemitism
Sen. John Fetterman responds after Pennsylvania Supreme Court Justice David Wecht sounds alarm about antisemitism in the Democratic Party.
CNN Exclusive: Fired former acting FBI chief says Patel tied job security to purging agents linked to Trump probes
A week before Donald Trump’s inauguration last year, Brian Driscoll, a decorated FBI special agent, received a series of calls that alarmed him. He was being offered the No. 2 job at the FBI and was told that if he didn’t take it, a political appointee would likely get the role. Driscoll didn’t think that was an acceptable alternative, so he hesitantly agreed.
National Academy of Sciences experts denounce Trump’s NSF board purge
In an open letter, thousands of researchers criticized the White House’s firing of the research agency’s board as ‘an alarming attack’ on U.S. science
Alarm grows over health of Iran’s female political prisoners
Rights activists have raised renewed concerns over the health of prominent female political prisoners after Nobel Prize laureate Narges Mohammadi was transferred to a hospital in Tehran and reports emerged of worsening conditions for jailed activist Fatemeh Sepehri.
Maryland Gov. Wes Moore and Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders highlight maternal health investments
Sanders said she raised alarms about maternal health in Arkansas after noticing the state had one of the highest maternal mortality rates.
OPEN THREAD
The Daily Merengue is a place where you can feel free to discuss all things football. Do not be alarmed by the overt RMCF bias. It’s in the name! Shoutout to the mods who do a fantastic job Kung_Fu_Zizou, Juninho, NeRObutBlanco, Felipejack, Ezek Ix and yours truly, Valyrian Steel. El-Clasico – Real Madrid return to […]
Hantavirus: the risks, the science and what you need to know
On May 2, the World Health Organization got an alarming report: People aboard a ship in the Atlantic Ocean were falling ill. The culprit is now confirmed as hantavirus, a pathogen that some rodents carry that can infect humans in rare, but often deadly, instances. Multiple passengers have died, and more people are showing symptoms. So, we’re talking to Emily Abdoler, an infectious disease doctor at the University of Michigan, about the news – how common is hantavirus in humans, what are the consequences of getting it, and how can at-risk people protect themselves from it? If you found this episode interesting, listen to our episode on Rocky Mountain spotted fever.Interested in more science in the news? Email us your question at shortwave@npr.org.Listen to every episode of Short Wave sponsor-free and support our work at NPR by signing up for Short Wave+ at plus.npr.org/shortwave.
Is the FDA Really Suppressing Science? Plus. . .
It’s Thursday, May 7. This is The Front Page, your daily window into the world of The Free Press—and our take on the world at large. Today: Aaron MacLean says Trump is poised to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in the Iran war. Joe Klein on the life of CNN founder Ted Turner. Jillian Lederman on why cruise ships are here to stay. And much more. But first: Is the FDA suppressing science? On Tuesday, The New York Times published a story with an alarming takeaway. “FDA Blocked Publication of Research Finding Covid and Shingles Vaccines Were Safe,” read the headline. It is the latest in a string of stories that all have the same message: The Food and Drug Administration (FDA), and other agencies, are engaged in a cover-up—and silencing scientists trying to get the word out about the Covid vaccine. What all these stories suggest—some more subtly than others—is that the outsiders now running the public health establishment, officials such as Marty Makary at the FDA and Jay Bhattacharya at the National Institutes of Health, are on a revenge tour. That they are doing harm to the country to get back at the scientists and bureaucrats who ostracized them for deviating from the public-health consensus during the pandemic. It’s a seductive narrative. But is it true? That’s the question we address in our latest editorial. —The Editors Read [ Marty Makary's FDA Has All the Right Enemies ](https://www.thefp.com/p/marty-makary-vaccine-study-fda) [ Trump Blinks First ](https://www.thefp.com/p/iran-peace-deal-pakistan-trump-strait-of-hormuz) Aaron MacLean In return for no detectable concessions, President Trump this week gave up on forcing open the Strait of Hormuz. Now, the Trump administration looks desperate for a deal to end the war with Iran. It’s easy to understand the desire to end the war, but are they blowing the chance at victory? Aaron MacLean makes sense of the administration’s latest moves—and Iran’s response—in his column today. Read full story Aaron MacLean and Niall Ferguson: Live in New York City Join Aaron MacLean and Niall Ferguson on May 19 for a live recording of School of War at the iconic New York Historical. In a conversation as timely as it is wide-ranging, Aaron and Niall will explore the strategic stakes of the moment, including the Middle East, China, and the future of American leadership on the global stage. Get Tickets Now [ Ted Turner, the Optimist Who Built CNN ](https://www.thefp.com/p/ted-turner-cnn-tribute) Joe Klein The man who gave us CNN and the 24-hour news cycle, Ted Turner, died Wednesday at the age of 87. Today, political writer Joe Klein—who almost ghostwrote Turner’s autobiography—remembers his friend, the American media mogul who stood out for his idealism and lack of a filter—something that got Turner in trouble more than once. “His was not a traditional intelligence, but one of horizon: Ted saw things before other people did,” Joe writes. Read full story [ Nothing Can Sink the Cruise Ship ](https://www.thefp.com/p/cruise-ship-hantavirus) Jillian Lederman A viral outbreak on a cruise ship that left three passengers dead has left some people wondering: Are cruise ships on the way out? Not so fast, says Jillian Lederman, who has been on many a cruise herself. Read her piece on why 38 million people a year take a cruise—and aren’t about to stop. Read full story [ The Great Writers Who Were Terrible People ](https://www.thefp.com/p/the-great-writers-who-were-terrible) Shilo Brooks Throughout history, some of the greatest literary geniuses have also been immoral bigots. In the latest episode of Old School, Shilo Brooks is joined by Eli Lake for a conversation about those geniuses, from Voltaire to Norman Mailer and Roald Dahl—and why we should read their work despite their odious prejudices. Listen on MORE FROM THE FREE PRESS [ Inside the Digital Intifada ](https://www.thefp.com/p/digital-intifada-social-media-hamas-terror) Warren Kinsella Read full story [ This Week in American History: Trump’s Over-Arching Problem ](https://www.thefp.com/p/this-week-in-american-history-trumps-over-arching-problem) Jonathan Horn Read full story [ Humanity Is Still Evolving—and Fast ](https://www.thefp.com/p/humanity-is-still-evolvingand-fast) Razib Khan Read full story THE NEWS Thirteen D.C. Metropolitan Police officers have been placed on administrative leave and could face termination after an internal investigation found evidence that crime statistics were manipulated to make the city look safer. The Republican-led House Oversight Committee previously alleged that former D.C. police chief Pamela Smith pressured officers to skew data. Tennessee Republicans unveiled a redrawn U.S. House map yesterday that would split up Memphis’s black-majority Democratic district, the latest move in a nationwide push to redraw congressional boundaries ahead of the midterms. The effort follows a Supreme Court ruling last week on Louisiana’s districts, which Tennessee House Speaker Cameron Sexton said gave states the green light to redraw maps along partisan lines. Israel struck Beirut for the first time since a ceasefire with Hezbollah took effect last month, saying it targeted a commander of the militant group’s elite Radwan force in the city’s southern suburbs. The strikes risk destabilizing that truce at a delicate moment, as Iran and the U.S. report progress toward a deal to resolve their own standoff. The U.S. Air Force is aiming for a Fourth of July delivery of a Boeing 747 gifted by Qatar, hoping to add it to the Air Force One fleet in time for the U.S.’s 250th anniversary, Reuters reported. (For more on the controversy surrounding the aircraft, read Jed Rubenfeld’s piece “It’s a Terrible Idea, but Trump Probably Can Accept a Free Jet from Qatar.”) Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick testified privately before Congress that he has no memory of why he and his family dined on Jeffrey Epstein’s private island in 2012, according to Reuters. The admission contradicts Lutnick’s earlier claim that he had cut ties with the convicted sex offender well before that visit. Weeks before a former JPMorgan investment banker filed a lawsuit packed with explosive allegations, the bank reportedly offered him $1 million to settle his sexual assault and harassment claims, according to The Wall Street Journal. The suit, filed by Chirayu Rana, alleges he was sexually assaulted by a female colleague, subjected to racial discrimination, and forced into a degrading dynamic at work. JPMorgan says the claims lack merit, and the female colleague’s lawyers call the accusations fabricated. A new report from the Hartford Institute for Religion Research shows that, for the first time in roughly 20 years, church attendance is trending upward, with more people volunteering and clergy expressing renewed optimism. The study’s authors described the findings, based on a survey of more than 7,400 congregations, as showing signs of widespread recovery from low attendance numbers.
A Security Researcher Decompiled The White House App, & What They Found Is Pretty Alarming
Recently, The White House launched its own official app on iOS and Android, claiming that it gives users "unparalleled access to the Trump
Greenland ice melt has surged sixfold and scientists are alarmed
Greenland’s ice sheet is now melting in ways never seen before, with extreme events becoming more frequent, widespread, and intense. Since 1990, meltwater production has skyrocketed, and most record-breaking events have occurred in recent years. Scientists say warming temperatures are supercharging these episodes beyond natural climate patterns.
Microsoft Defender Misidentifies DigiCert Certificates As Malware, Triggering Global Disruptions
A significant technical malfunction in Microsoft Defender has triggered widespread alarm across the global cybersecurity community, after the platform mistakenly identified legitimate digital certificates issued by DigiCert as malicious software. The error, which surfaced in late April, led to false
Investigation into fire at USF St. Pete Marine Science Lab | FOX 13 Tampa Bay
Investigators are still trying to determine the cause of the 2-alarm fire Saturday evening at the USF St. Pete campus. FOX 13's Heather Healy reports.
Flames tear through roof of USF Marine Science Laboratory in St. Petersburg
A large two-alarm fire broke out Saturday at a building on the University of South Florida’s St. Petersburg campus, sending plumes of smoke into the sky.
Is Palantir fit for UK consumption?
Supervillain or scapegoat? Controversial software firm’s inroads into British state systems are alarming to some
Fire Damages USF Marine Science Lab; Hazmat Evaluation Planned Overnight
A multiple-alarm structure fire significantly damaged a marine science laboratory, with officials indicating the building is likely a total loss due to extensive water and fire damage. The fire was reported at approximately 5:12 p.m. on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Fire crews reported that the structure was already heavily involved in the attic upon arrival. […]
Two-alarm fire strikes USF Marine Science Laboratory on St. Petersburg campus
Emergency calls came in sometime after 5:30 p.m. Saturday. No injuries have been reported, and the building was evacuated, officials say. No cause has been determined.
2-alarm fire reported on USF St. Petersburg campus
The scene is active and a cause is under investigation.
Report raises alarm about widespread tanning myths ahead of summer
That “healthy-looking glow” might actually be skin damage. A new report highlights common misunderstandings about tanning and skin cancer.
Scientists sound alarm as dangerous amoebas spread globally
Free-living amoebae are emerging as a global health concern, fueled by warming temperatures and outdated water systems. While many are harmless, some can cause deadly infections and even protect other dangerous microbes. Their ability to survive heat and disinfectants makes them especially hard to control. Scientists say improved surveillance and water treatment are urgently needed.
Throwing 85 mph, Brandon Woodruff leaves start in second inning
Brandon Woodruff's velocity was alarmingly low, leading to the Brewers taking him out early on April 30
What Does the National Science Board Do? Experts Warn Board’s Firing Could Endanger NSF Independence, U.S. Scientific Leadership
The recent news that President Trump notified all 22 members of the National Science Board that they were being dismissed, effective immediately, has caused alarm in the scientific community because of the body’s unique role in leading the National Science Foundation – one of the world’s premiere research-funding agencies.
Alarm over Trump’s dismissal of entire science advisory board
Leaders dismayed as 22-member panel advising on National Science Foundation abruptly let go
Sony clarifies recent PlayStation DRM update
PlayStation fans and gaming preservations have been alarmed since late last week that a new 30-day timer attached attached to newly-purchased digital games for PlayStation 4 and 5 might render those games unplayable if the system they’re on is offline for longer than a month. But a rep from Sony told Game File today that new system will require only a single online check before it functions as a perpetual license for the digitally purchased game. That is consistent with a newer theory that emerged by gamers testing the 30-day timer over the last two days. “Players can continue to access and play their purchased games as usual,” a rep for PlayStation told me over email. “A one-time online check is required after purchase to confirm the game’s license, after which no further check-ins are needed.” The rep’s explanation squares with the current understanding among players about what’s happening. A multi-day mystery A post last Friday by YouTuber Lance MacDonald spread awareness over the 30-day timer. Quickly, players began stress-testing the system, removing a battery within their PlayStations and checking what would happen if their systems were offline past the timer window. They noticed that setting a PS4 or PS5 to be the “primary” console—a common Sony-authorized method to retain rights to a digital game—wasn’t overriding the 30-day limit. On Tuesday came the breakthrough: A gamer called Andshrew on the Resetera forums posted the results of some tasting. They found that digital games purchased on PS4/PS5 after some time in mid-April would get a 30-day timer that could then be removed and replaced with a perpetual license that would allow the game to be played offline. The transition to the perpetual license occurred some number of days after the digital game was purchased and the system was connected to the internet. They believed that a PlayStation’s online check-in would trigger the license change no sooner than 15 days after the user had purchased the game. This synced with the theory that Sony’s new system is related to the 14-day window that PlayStation users have to request a refund for digitally purchased games. The new timer/check-in system could be a way to defeat some exploit in that refund system, some users theorized. Game File is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Subscribe In a follow-up, I asked the Sony rep if the 15-day timeline is accurate or if the perpetual license can be activated sooner after purchase. If they share more, I’ll update this post. Sony has not said why they’ve introduced the timer and whether it is designed to stop people from exploiting the refund system. But their explanation suggests that this new DRM method should not result in long-term loss of access to digitally purchased games, just because a PlayStation is offline for a month or Sony’s servers are down. Xbox flashback For many some gamers, the initial reporting of the 30-day timer conjured memories of Microsoft’s disastrous May 2013 announcement of the Xbox One, which was going to require an internet-connected check-in once a day, lest your games become unplayable.1 After widespread backlash, Microsoft abandoned that plan, ahead of the Xbox One’s launch. 1 Fun fact: That 24-hour check-in detail was my scoop from an interview I had that day with then-Xbox exec Phil Harrison. I was EiC of Kotaku at the time and rushing from one Xbox One preview appointment on Microsoft’s campus to another. I phoned the news in to reporter Jason Schreier, who wrote it up for the site.
Politics in a Parallel Universe: Iraq’s Leadership Crisis and the Iran War
The Iraqi government and the leaders of the country’s ruling political factions have every reason for alarm. The US–Israeli war on Iran—and its profound consequences for Iraq’s security, political stability, and economy—has produced a national crisis. Yet in Baghdad, political debate is still fixated on who will occupy which positions, what authority and resources they will control, and how to […]
Damon Wayans reveals the scary symptom that led to his type 2 diabetes diagnosis
Damon Wayans details his type 2 diabetes journey, the symptoms that alarmed him and his new partnership to raise awareness for the diabetic eye disease DME.
Professor says U.S. political violence used to be worse, and Oregon played a part
Political violence in the United States may feel uniquely alarming right now, but it is not unprecedented.
Giants’ stunning sale to Joshua Kushner carries impact beyond politics
The Giants’ decision to sell a minority stake to a firm with a connection to the Trump family has set off alarm bells with some supporters and employees in deep blue San Francisco.
Concerns over rise of targeted political violence after WH Correspondents’ Dinner shooting
Saturday night’s shooting is the latest incident in what is an alarming rise of targeted political violence in recent years. NBC News’ Kelly O’Donnell reports.
Paul Mauro warns of social media's impact on political violence
Fox News contributor Paul Mauro, a retired NYPD inspector, discusses the alarming rise in political violence.
Toxins plus climate harms likely cause of reduced fertility, study finds
Researchers find ‘alarming’ effect on fertility across global species from simultaneous exposures
Local business in Saline County closes months after winter storm damage
In January, during the winter storm, Haskell Hardware owner Tim Haskell recalled he got a call in the middle of the night that his store alarm was going off, and by the time he got to the property,…
Michigan auto stakeholders sound alarm ahead of governor election
MichAuto is holding roundtables across the state to develop an automobility policy roadmap expected to be released ahead of the November election.
What to know about the missing scientists alarming Congress
The cases date back to at least 2023 but national security concerns prompted a congressional investigation.
New issue: Mirrorlife | BBC Science Focus Magazine
Mirror life could end all life on Earth. That sounds dramatic, but senior biologists have raised the alarm about experiments happening all around the world. It sounds like something in a Doctor Who plot, but no – mirror life is a real possibility. So why do scientists want to create something that’s potentially apocalyptic? Well, it could also have huge benefits (think back to splitting the atom). The first thing to say, however, is that mirror organisms are still a little way away yet – but only decades, not centuries. So far, scientists have only made mirror molecules, one of life’s building blocks. What for? Life works because its building blocks fit together. Imagine drilling a screw into a piece of wood. The screw cuts a hole with a thread that snugly matches its own. If, for some reason, the Doctor showed up and handed you a mirror version of the screw, its thread would be in reverse. It wouldn’t twist into the hole you’d just made as the threads wouldn’t match. That said, the mirror screw would still work; you’d just have to create a mirror hole for it. Mirror molecules, including DNA, work a bit like that. They follow the same principles as the biology around us, but they’re entirely incompatible with traditional biological functions. In medical terms, this means they’re effectively invisible to your body’s systems. Our biology doesn’t have the tools to recognise these molecules and break them apart. And if someone took these mirror molecules and put them together to make a cell and then an organism… you’d have mirror life. But we don't have any way of breaking it down. If it escaped the lab, we’d just have to hope it didn’t have an appetite.
'Catastrophic' | Ohio mental health providers sound alarm over CareSource Medicaid payment clawbacks
CareSource said such adjustments are standard when payment issues are discovered. But many behavioral health providers say the combination of rate cuts and retroactive clawbacks is unprecedented.
'Pretty stunning': Data shows political division is a top concern for Americans
'Common Ground': UNITE CEO Tim Shriver analyzes the alarming rise of political polarization in America on 'Special Report.'
NYC business group slams proposed second home tax and city's wasteful spending
Chartwell Strategy Group managing director Joe Borelli sounds the alarm on wasted school spending and the potential fallout from new NYC tax hikes on 'Varney & Co.'
'Nations need to prepare now': Key Atlantic ocean current is much closer to collapse than scientists thought
An alarming study claims the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation is weakening more than than believed previously. But experts say its findings are far from the final word.
Tribune Editorial: Utah officials need to raise the alarm about measles
It’s a disease that can cause misery, hospitalization, birth defects, swelling of the brain, deafness, a weakening of the immune system that can last for years and, on rare occasions, death.
Renowned physicist alarmed by 'unheard of' number of scientists dying or vanishing now on White House's radar
Multiple scientists linked to UFO research, nuclear labs and NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory have mysteriously vanished or died in recent years.
Kash Patel’s Erratic Behavior Could Cost Him His Job
The FBI director has alarmed colleagues with episodes of excessive drinking and unexplained absences.
Why some tech leaders are sounding the alarm about Colorado’s ‘deteriorating’ business climate
Colorado enjoyed a reputation of being business-friendly in recent decades. But some in the business community worry that too much regulation is hurting the state’s ability to attract new companies. And they’re asking the governor for help.
Flutter Entertainment Stock (FLUT) Opinions on Citi Downgrade
Citi Downgrade Triggers Alarm: Social media erupted today after Citigroup double-downgraded Flutter Entertainment to sell, citing mounting U.S. business risks for its FanDuel unit. Users dissected concerns over slowing growth, intensifying competition, and potential regulatory hurdles. The stock tumbled in premarket trading amid the fresh bearish call.Profitability Doubts Mount: Conversations highlighted slashed EBITDA forecasts and reduced buyba
LA hotel leaders warn Mayor Bass' $30 wage mandate is killing business ahead of World Cup, Olympics
Los Angeles hotels are "sounding alarm bells" over a $30-per-hour minimum wage law, according to an AHLA report citing reduced hiring and canceled investments.
Debt Alarms Ring as Countries Rack Up More Emergency Spending
Amid signs of a prolonged period of high energy costs, policymakers are urging restraint as governments open up the public till to protect households and businesses.
Small business owners sound alarm on word that Hamilton County may sell Business Incubator
Small Business owners at the Hamilton County Business Development Center say they’re worried about the future of the facility as the County Commission is set to
This new Android app could be a lifesaver for sleepy commuters
Sleep&Arrive is a new Android app with Wear OS support that tries to wake you based on your location rather than a fixed alarm time.
Ocean Heat Waves Are 'Supercharging' Hurricane Damage, Scientists Warn
"This is shocking but should also be alarming for people.”
⚠️ Concern for Mbappé! Not training with the squad after eyebrow stitches
Real Madrid completed training this Sunday with an absence that raised alarm bells, although the club is conveying complete calm. According to several media outlets, Kylian Mbappé did not go out onto...
Growing List of Dead and Missing NASA Scientists Triggers New Alarm
The list of dead and missing scientists throughout the U.S. was already spurring growing alarm and, in some cases, the attention of law enforcement. Another name has been added to the list by some new...
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
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