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Asking Eric: Mother says ‘no politics’ but keeps talking politics

Dear Eric: I’m a 58-year-old daughter to a 94-year-old father and an 83-year-old mother. I love my parents dearly, but we have had no contact for nearly a year. I know that at any time my father and/or mother could pass. This is the one stressor in my life – that I will lose one or both of my parents when we are at odds.

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Aug 9 • 12:09 AM EDT • Politics • therepublic.com
Salkilld Vs. Gamrot Odds, Full Fight Preview & Prediction

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Lightweight standouts Quillan Salkilld vs. Mateusz Gamrot will clash TONIGHT (Sat., Aug. 8, 2026) inside Meta Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada, for UFC Vegas 120. Salkilld is the brightest Australian prospect in quite some time. In less than two years on UFC’s roster, Salkilld has racked up five wins and four […]

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Aug 8 • 12:15 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
😐 Neutral (13%)
wow
67%
angry
33%
CFTC warns prediction markets against American-style casino odds

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission told prediction markets to avoid using American-style gambling odds as the US regulator fends off legal challenges alleging the platforms are illicit sports betting operations.

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Aug 7 • 9:21 PM EDT • Entertainment • thederrick.com
Late setbacks cast doubt on Protect College Sports Act as deadline looms

After some late setbacks, the Protect College Sports Act faces long odds as time ticks down before the August Congressional recess

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Aug 7 • 3:51 PM EDT • Sports • cbssports.com
2026 MLB Odds: Will Yordan Alvarez Win The Triple Crown?

Houston's superstar has a chance to make history at the plate. Will he do it? See the odds.

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Aug 7 • 12:04 PM EDT • Sports • foxsports.com
The Odds: The Ballot Battle
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Aug 7 • 9:54 AM EDT • Politics • cnn.com
Cruz Azul vs. Philadelphia Union - Final Score

Live coverage of Cruz Azul vs. Philadelphia Union game on FOX Sports including live score, highlights, updated stats, odds and more - played on August 06, 2026.

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Aug 6 • 10:50 PM EDT • Sports • foxsports.com
As Michigan ages, are we overlooking a critical type of caregiver – the friend?

Friends may not see themselves as caregivers, yet when they help with activities of daily living, they are crucial to a person’s independence and longevity. That, in turn, can save tax dollars by curbing the odds at nursing home care.

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Aug 6 • 4:23 PM EDT • Health • bridgemi.com
2026 MLB Odds: 5 Best Post-Trade Deadline Bets

Will Hill delivers his five MLB best bets post-trade deadline. See his pick for the World Series matchup and the winner.

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Aug 6 • 11:46 AM EDT • Sports • foxsports.com
Trades solidify Dodgers' strong betting odds, boost Red Sox

The Dodgers, after acquiring Tarik Skubal on Saturday, are way ahead of the Yankees, the next closest team, on the World Series odds board Tuesday.

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Aug 4 • 1:21 PM EDT • Sports • espn.com
Shift Up CEO Tries To Defend Stellar Blade: Blood Rain Slop Video From Fan Backlash And Continues To Get Roasted: 'Insane Cope'

Kim Hyung Tae is at odds with some of the sequel's biggest boosters

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Aug 4 • 9:27 AM EDT • Technology • kotaku.com
Childhood Adversity Shapes Reproductive Health in Women

Childhood adversity is linked to higher odds of infertility, preterm birth, and small-for-gestational-age birth in women.

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Aug 3 • 8:00 PM EDT • Health • medscape.com
2026 NFL Odds: John Harbaugh Favored To Win Coach Of The Year

Can John Harbaugh turn around the Giants? Check out the latest NFL Coach of the Year odds.

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Aug 3 • 1:16 PM EDT • Sports • foxsports.com
The Odds: Lone Star Shake-up
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Aug 3 • 9:54 AM EDT • Politics • cnn.com
Updated Vikings' 53-Man Roster Projection After First Four Practices

The first week of Vikings training camp is now in the books, and week 1 was eventful, with the QBs entering camp amid a dramatic battle, as well as a few front office moves that have already helped shake up the roster a bit. Notice that three of the players below have asterisks next to their names indicating that they are not currently on the roster, but that I feel strongly that the Vikings could sign them in the next couple of weeks. Kyler Murray is the odds-on favorite and has looked sharp getting the ball down the field in camp so far.

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Aug 2 • 8:38 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Laboratory exposure and poor diet linked to health symptoms in young scientists

A research team has found that frequent exposure to laboratory chemicals and low consumption of antioxidant-rich foods are jointly associated with a greater likelihood of self-reported health symptoms among young scientists. Survey participants who frequently handled chemicals and consumed few antioxidant-rich foods had nearly three times the odds of reporting fatigue, headaches, pallor, or easy bruising compared with their less-exposed, better-nourished peers. The study also showed that stronge

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Aug 2 • 7:55 AM EDT • Health • newswise.com
Wall Street’s hidden recruiting pipeline isn’t an Ivy League diploma—it’s the teammate who triples your odds of getting hired

A new study of more than 120,000 Ivy League graduates finds locker room ties, not diplomas, do the real gatekeeping into finance's top firms

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Aug 1 • 4:00 AM EDT • Sports • fortune.com
Deep dive
😐 Neutral (9%)
ahah
60%
wow
40%
Rams Get Another Aaron Donald Return Boost As Momentum Builds

The Rams got another boost in their odds of getting Aaron Donald back on their defensive front, terrorizing quarterbacks in the NFC. The post Rams Get Another Aaron Donald Return Boost As Momentum Builds appeared first on LA Sports Report.

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Aug 1 • 1:35 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Deep dive
😐 Neutral (20%)
love
64%
wow
36%
2026 MLB Odds: Dodgers Become Major Liability Amid Skubal Trade Talks

The Dodgers, as well as a few surprise contenders, have become major sportsbook liabilities ahead of the trade deadline. Patrick Everson breaks it down.

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Jul 31 • 5:37 PM EDT • Sports • foxsports.com
The Odds: The Left’s Ascent
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Jul 31 • 9:50 AM EDT • Politics • cnn.com
The Odds: A Failing Grade on Inflation
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Jul 30 • 9:54 AM EDT • Politics • cnn.com
2026 MLB Odds: Bettors Backing Brewers To Win World Series, 'Miz' For Cy Young

Are the Milwaukee Brewers worth all the hype? Bettors certainly believe so. See the latest.

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Jul 28 • 2:47 PM EDT • Sports • foxsports.com
The Odds: Voter IDs at the Door
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Jul 28 • 10:16 AM EDT • Politics • cnn.com
The Odds: Buyer’s Remorse?
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Jul 27 • 10:05 AM EDT • Politics • cnn.com
LSU's National Championship Odds May Depend on One Overlooked Metric

The LSU Tigers have their eyes set on the ultimate goal this season.

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Jul 26 • 8:00 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Relocating CT scanners closer to ED cuts turnaround times with potential to save lives

Every minute saved improves patients’ odds of disability-free survival, experts involved in the analysis noted.

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Jul 26 • 7:33 PM EDT • Business • radiologybusiness.com
The Odds: End of an Era?
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Jul 24 • 9:54 AM EDT • Politics • cnn.com
The Odds: Trump’s Tariff Backlash
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Jul 23 • 9:59 AM EDT • Politics • cnn.com
The Odds: The Rise of Jon Ossoff
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Jul 22 • 9:55 AM EDT • Politics • cnn.com
2026 College Football Playoff Odds: Irish Heavily Favored To Make Field

College Football Playoff odds have hit the market. See which squads are favored to make the 12-team postseason tournament.

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Jul 21 • 3:03 PM EDT • Sports • foxsports.com
2026 NFL Odds: Which Division Loser Can Go Worst To First?

Which last-place division finisher has a chance to reverse course next season? See the odds for if a team can go worst to first.

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Jul 21 • 12:04 PM EDT • Sports • foxsports.com
2026 NFL Odds: Which QB Will Lead League In Passing Yards, Touchdowns?

The odds say Joe Burrow is expected to have another dominant season under center.

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Jul 20 • 12:46 PM EDT • Sports • foxsports.com
😐 Neutral (30%)
wow
34%
ahah
33%
love
33%
Daily Dawg Chow: Betting odds, free agents, and more!

The latest Cleveland Browns news and notes from around the NFL in the July 20 edition of the Daily Dawg Chow.

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Jul 20 • 6:00 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Former NFL GM blasts Steelers QB Aaron Rodgers

A former NFL general manager isn't sold on Aaron Rodgers' Super Bowl odds in what's shaping up to be his final season with the Pittsburgh Steelers.

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Jul 19 • 5:08 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Weight-loss drugs may improve job prospects and dating odds for one group

A weight-loss specialist says GLP-1 results boost confidence in job interviews and dating, but the study found no clear improvement in well-being.

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Jul 17 • 9:22 PM EDT • Health • foxnews.com
The Odds: The Ultimate Soccer Ticket
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Jul 17 • 10:02 AM EDT • Politics • cnn.com
Pistons Turn Down This Kings’ Trade Offer For Jalen Duren

Detroit Pistons and restricted free agent Jalen Duren continue to be at odds on a new contract. Duren, following a […]

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Jul 16 • 1:05 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
2026 Open Championship odds, picks, date: Surprising predictions from golf model that's nailed 17 majors

Mike McClure's model has simulated the British Open 2026 10,000 times and revealed PGA best bets and picks for Royal Birkdale

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Jul 15 • 8:54 PM EDT • Sports • cbssports.com
2026 Open Championship odds, picks, date: Surprising predictions from golf model that's nailed 17 majors

Mike McClure's model has simulated the British Open 2026 10,000 times and revealed PGA best bets and picks for Royal Birkdale

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Jul 14 • 1:36 PM EDT • Sports • cbssports.com
2026 NASCAR Odds: Denny Hamlin Favored For North Wilkesboro; Kyle Larson Second

NASCAR is heading to North Wilkesboro for the first points race at the track in 30 years. Who will take the checkered flag? Here are the early odds.

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Jul 14 • 12:12 PM EDT • Sports • foxsports.com
The Odds: Trump’s Foreign Affairs
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Jul 14 • 10:01 AM EDT • Politics • cnn.com
2026 Open Championship odds, picks: Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy predictions by model that nailed 17 majors

After 10,000 simulations, SportsLine's computer reveals its British Open best bets for Royal Birkdale this week

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Jul 14 • 9:30 AM EDT • Sports • cbssports.com
2026 Open Championship odds, picks, date: Surprising predictions from golf model that's nailed 17 majors

Mike McClure's model has simulated the British Open 2026 10,000 times and revealed PGA best bets for Royal Birkdale

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Jul 14 • 9:08 AM EDT • Sports • cbssports.com
OpenAI Is Showing Kalshi’s World Cup Odds in ChatGPT

The partnership, a first of its kind for the artificial intelligence company, will use the prediction market’s data to power some search results about the soccer tournament.

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Jul 13 • 11:34 PM EDT • Technology • nytimes.com
Law enforcement leaders clash over police training company Force Science and DA’s opinion piece

Shelby County District Attorney Steve Mulroy and several law enforcement leaders are at odds over Force Science, a national company that trains police officers across the country, including in Tennessee.

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Jul 13 • 8:39 PM EDT • Science • actionnews5.com
Deep dive
☹️ Negative (-8%)
ahah
100%
2026 Open Championship odds, picks, date: Surprising predictions from golf model that's nailed 17 majors

Mike McClure's model has simulated the British Open 2026 10,000 times and revealed PGA best bets for Royal Birkdale

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Jul 13 • 7:54 PM EDT • Sports • cbssports.com
2026 World Cup Odds: Back Spain In Double Chance Market Against France

What's the best way to wager on the Spain-France semifinal match? Will Hill breaks it down.

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Jul 13 • 6:30 PM EDT • Sports • foxsports.com
2026 World Cup Odds: Books Hoping For Spain-England Title Match

One thing sportsbooks don't want? A rematch of the 2022 World Cup final. Patrick Everson breaks down the semifinal betting action.

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Jul 13 • 3:09 PM EDT • Sports • foxsports.com
2026 Open Championship odds, picks, date: Surprising predictions from golf model that's nailed 17 majors

Mike McClure's model has simulated the British Open 2026 10,000 times and revealed PGA best bets for Royal Birkdale

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Jul 13 • 2:11 PM EDT • Sports • cbssports.com
The Odds: The Maine Senate Race
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Jul 13 • 9:49 AM EDT • Politics • cnn.com
😐 Neutral (0%)
The Open Championship: Tee times, how to watch, odds, purse
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Jul 13 • 7:46 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
$10 Kalshi referral code “OREGONLIVE1” extended to politics odds

Kalshi referral code OREGONLIVE1 unlocks a Spend $10, Get $10 bonus, now valid on politics. See live Kalshi All-Star Game and 2028 Democratic nominee odds.

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Jul 12 • 9:55 PM EDT • Politics • oregonlive.com
$50 Polymarket referral code “OREGON” extends invite bonus to politics

Polymarket invite code OREGON unlocks a $50 bonus on $20, now extended to politics. See live Polymarket All-Star Game and 2028 Republican nominee odds.

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Jul 12 • 9:45 PM EDT • Politics • oregonlive.com
2026 FIFA World Cup - Watch and Stream Live Matches

Stream live Men's FIFA World Cup 2026 matches and view the latest news, analysis, schedule, groups, odds, predictions, where to watch and more at FOX Sports.

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Jul 10 • 7:38 PM EDT • Sports • foxsports.com
Deep dive
😐 Neutral (27%)
love
41%
ahah
34%
wow
25%
All Five HUNGER GAMES Films Return to Theaters from Lionsgate and Fathom Entertainment in Anticipation of THE HUNGER GAMES: SUNRISE ON THE REAPING

The odds will be in audiences’ favor as fans of the The Hunger Games saga—new and returning—experience all the magic of the franchise once again, with all five Hunger Games films returning to theaters September 3- 7, 2026. Back in theaters from Lionsgate and Fathom Entertainment each of the entries in The Hunger Games: All Five Films will […]

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Jul 10 • 9:52 AM EDT • Entertainment • boxofficepro.com
Why NYC council speaker and Health Department are at odds over Legionnaires outbreak

New York City health officials say it’s a bit like a crime investigation. But instead of persons of interest, they are looking into buildings of interest in their investigation into the Legionnaires’ outbreak on the Upper East Side.

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Jul 10 • 5:00 AM EDT • Health • nbcnewyork.com
The Odds: Tea Party?
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Jul 9 • 9:52 AM EDT • Politics • cnn.com
The Lexington Problem: Beating the Literacy Odds Without the Science of Reading

Aldeman: As Massachusetts implements a new literacy mandate, officials must not lose sight of the ultimate goal: helping more students learn to read

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Jul 8 • 6:30 AM EDT • Science • the74million.org
Opinion: The Lexington Problem: Beating the Literacy Odds Without the Science of Reading

The science of reading has largely won the policy debate. Over the last decade, state after state has embraced evidence-based reading instruction. Legislatures have passed literacy laws, and teacher p...

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Jul 8 • 6:30 AM EDT • Science • yahoo.com
Political survivor Le Pen makes her boldest gamble yet for France's presidency

In launching her fourth bid for the French presidency, just hours after judges cleared her to run, Marine Le Pen portrayed herself as a fighter who had defied the ​odds to overcome a months-long legal battle that threatened to end her political ambitions.

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Jul 8 • 1:05 AM EDT • Politics • reuters.com
2026 World Cup Odds: Books In 'Strong Position' Following USA Elimination

The fairy tale is over for the USA, putting books in a strong position when it comes to World Cup futures. Patrick Everson breaks it down.

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Jul 7 • 11:18 AM EDT • Sports • foxsports.com
The Odds: Turnout Takeover
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Jul 7 • 9:53 AM EDT • Politics • cnn.com
The Green Bay Packers Have a Tremendous History of Fighting Spirit and Resilience

From humble beginnings in a meatpacking town to thirteen NFL titles, discover how the community-owned Green Bay Packers defied the odds to become an enduring icon of American sports.

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Jul 7 • 4:00 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Deep dive
😐 Neutral (12%)
love
50%
wow
50%
The Odds: Michigan Decides
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Jul 6 • 9:53 AM EDT • Politics • cnn.com
‘Game of the Tournament’ — Shannon Sharpe, Sports World React to England’s Stunning World Cup Win vs. Mexico

On paper, there should have been no contest. England has a star-studded team, and while Mexico were playing at the legendary Estadio Azteca in front of about 80,000 fans, the odds were stacked against them.

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Jul 6 • 1:08 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Deep dive
😐 Neutral (13%)
wow
63%
ahah
37%
Cancer Health: HIV raises hepatitis C liver disease risk in women more than men

Women with HIV and HCV face higher odds of cirrhosis and liver decompensation but not liver cancer.

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Jul 5 • 7:27 PM EDT • Health • eatg.org
2026 World Cup Odds: Folarin Balogun's Return Leaves Books Scrambling

The betting on USA-Belgium changed in an instant once it was announced Folarin Balogun was eligible to play. Patrick Everson has the scoop.

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Jul 5 • 5:18 PM EDT • Sports • foxsports.com
😐 Neutral (13%)
ahah
50%
love
25%
wow
25%
Brazil vs. Norway - Live Score

Live coverage of Brazil vs. Norway game on FOX Sports including live score, highlights, updated stats, odds and more - played on July 05, 2026.

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Jul 5 • 4:47 PM EDT • Sports • foxsports.com
World Cup 2026: How Folarin Balogun being available changes USMNT odds against Belgium in Round of 16

The United States is favored against Belgium in Monday's Round of 16 match.

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Jul 5 • 2:03 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Diamondbacks 4, Milwaukee 3: A Win for AMERICA!

Against the odds, Merrill Kelly and Adrian Del Castillo led us to an unlikely 4th of July victory!

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Jul 5 • 1:48 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
2026 NFL Odds: Josh Allen, Buffalo Best Bet To Win AFC East

Find out why Will Hill believes that Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills will win the AFC East next season.

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Jul 3 • 12:24 PM EDT • Sports • foxsports.com
2026 NASCAR Odds: Denny Hamlin Favored As Cup Returns To Chicagoland Speedway

The NASCAR Cup Series is heading back to Chicagoland Speedeway for the first time since 2019. Here are the latest odds for the eero 400.

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Jul 2 • 12:14 PM EDT • Sports • foxsports.com
The Odds: Maine Senate race
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Jul 1 • 9:43 AM EDT • Politics • cnn.com
5 things to know about an emerging drug-resistant fungus now putting hospitals at risk of outbreaks

Memo to health execs: If your hospital hasn’t had a C. auris scare yet, odds are quite high that it soon will.

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Jun 30 • 8:57 PM EDT • Health • healthexec.com
3 Reasons Why I'm Loading Up on Penn Entertainment in the Second Half of 2026

Penn Entertainment stock is soaring and it has the potential to build on those gains in the second half of 2026.

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Jun 30 • 5:10 PM EDT • Entertainment • fool.com
2026 College Football Odds: Will Oregon, Miami Both Make Playoff?

Geoff Schwartz has his eye on one team's win total and two teams' CFP chances. See where he's putting his money.

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Jun 30 • 2:51 PM EDT • Sports • foxsports.com
The Odds: Proud to be an American
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Jun 30 • 9:49 AM EDT • Politics • cnn.com
The Odds: Democratic Leadership
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Jun 29 • 9:49 AM EDT • Politics • cnn.com
France, Argentina top World Cup odds; U.S. puts sportsbooks at risk

Star-powered France and Argentina top the odds board to win the World Cup as the tournament moves into the knockout stage, while the United States' positive momentum will have sportsbooks sweating more with each game it wins.

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Jun 28 • 11:32 AM EDT • Sports • espn.com
Phillies vs Mets Prediction, Picks & Odds for Today's MLB Game

The Phillies have been hot, and our expert MLB predictions expect their winning ways to continue against the lowly Mets.

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Jun 27 • 11:35 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
The Odds: The Economy
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Jun 26 • 9:56 AM EDT • Politics • cnn.com
Making Our Own Luck

We are cross-posting a piece that former NIH official Kris Willis wrote for Macroscience. Kris is now the President and Founder of the Woodley Park Institute, for which I’m a board member. Picking winners or hedging bets? Federal science agencies have long wrestled with the question of how to ensure their billions of dollars of grants and contracts result in maximum benefits for Americans. On the surface, it might seem that a goal-oriented, interventionist style of management would be the best policy: prioritize our most pressing problems and distribute funding accordingly.This top-down strategy creates a unique hazard, though: bad choices can send resources in the wrong direction, resulting in slow progress that impedes the delivery of tangible benefits to citizens. Moreover, if decision makers pursue an applied advance when the underlying scientific principles remain poorly understood, they risk costly failures and a loss of support for the research enterprise at large. Examples include Nixon’s 1971 War on Cancer, undertaken on the premise that a cure could be achieved in less than a decade, the drive to build an operational commercial fusion plant by the mid-1990s, and the National Plan to Address Alzheimer’s Disease, which failed to produce the effective treatments and prevention strategies promised by 2025. The contrasting laissez-faire approach is to hedge your bets. If the path to an advance is impossible to predict, then the wisest choice might be to distribute funding to as widely as possible. The main risk of this strategy is that spreading funding thinly may limit the resources available to the most promising research, resulting in the same negative outcomes as the interventionist approach: limited support for the most promising topics, slow progress, and delayed returns. In reality, at science agencies like the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health, program managers navigate between these two extremes, setting some funds aside to target high-priority areas and using the rest to cover the widest possible range of meritorious proposals. This middle path seems like the most rational way to proceed, but it still requires making choices. How much should be set aside for high priority topics? What should those topics be? How should we define merit? Expert opinion can provide a helpful guide, but leading experts can have remarkably different opinions about what matters and what should be prioritized. Moreover, experts and administrators alike can be risk averse, giving an edge to high-profile, well-established concepts. What’s really needed is a data-driven framework to help guide decision-making, one that doesn’t simply repackage prestige or incumbency. Recognizing breakthroughs years in advance Many breakthroughs fail to attract funding or recognition at the earliest stages of development. Katalin Karikó, for example, spent years struggling to win grants for work on mRNA that would eventually win her and Drew Weissman a Nobel Prize. Similar stories can be told about Jim Allison’s groundbreaking studies leading to the development of cancer immunotherapy, Stan Pruisner’s demonstration that prions can self-replicate without DNA, or Robin Warren and Barry Marshall’s proof that Helicobacter pylori, not stress, causes ulcers. Yet at some point, the scientific community recognizes and responds to transformative breakthroughs like these. How does that change happen? And what if science funders could identify the areas that are on the cusp of a breakthrough? Those questions led my collaborators and me to study how scientists responded to past breakthroughs. Based on patterns in that data, we developed a means of predicting future breakthroughs, using biomedicine as a proof of concept. It’s worth taking a moment to describe how our approach works. Briefly, our prediction process begins by grouping the 18 million or so peer-reviewed papers in PubMed, the authoritative database of biomedical research, into roughly 50,000 unique topics. A small subset of these topics are so widely acclaimed as breakthroughs that they have been recognized with a major prize like a Nobel or a Lasker Award. We theorized that studying the development of these outliers over time, especially before they gained acclaim, was the key to identifying future instances of them. After defining topics, we chose 21 representative breakthroughs and asked what they looked like before they won prestigious prizes. To answer that question, we re-ran our topic-mapping algorithm repeatedly, winding back the clock one year each time, stringing together the years to follow the progress of each field as it grew and advanced. We found that in each case, the years leading up to a discovery followed a pattern: a burst of papers on a new, rapidly evolving topic, many of which quickly became influential. These characteristics—the percent of papers that are new, the percentage of papers that are brought in from other topics, and the influence of each individual paper—can all be measured separately for any given topic. Together, they act as a predictive signal that is detectable an average of five years before a transformative discovery is made, and up to thirty years before the discovery receives a major prize. Scanning the current research landscape for topics that display this signal allows us to predict what work will likely produce a future breakthrough. Each year we analyzed includes four or five signals, a number that appears to have remained constant across a twenty year time frame. In their classic work on the sociology of science, Bruno Latour and Steve Woolgar established that the desire to participate in a major discovery is an important motivator for scientists as they consider whether they should take up (or abandon) a research problem. Although further work is needed, the simplest explanation for our results is that this behavior is widespread enough to detect at scale. A foundational advance, or something like it, draws the attention of scientists and causes them to change the direction of their research. They vote with their feet, staking their own reputation and careers by publishing on and citing the new idea. That upswell of interest is the foundation of our breakthrough signal. What kind of research does our model identify as a breakthrough? After building a model based on the patterns in our 21 preselected breakthroughs, we tested it by identifying all early signals of discovery from 1994 through 1997. Of the 18 signals we found in that time period, 17 can be traced forward in time to a breakthrough. Examples include super-resolution fluorescence microscopy (see the image above), the directed evolution of proteins and enzymes (Chemistry Nobel, 2018), and sequencing the human genome (National Medal of Science, 2008). The discovery of the role of leptin signaling in obesity is a particularly interesting case study. Around 1950, scientists noticed the existence of a type of lab mouse that suffered from a unique inherited form of obesity. When given the freedom to choose their own diet, these mice ate more than normal and preferred food that was high in fat. Researchers had few clues as to why the animals overate; early experiments pointed to the existence of a soluble ob factor found circulating in the bloodstream that regulated appetite, but its identity was unknown. In 1994, Jeffrey Friedman and colleagues identified and sequenced the ob gene, noting that the protein it encoded appeared to fit the profile of a circulating factor. A year later, a trio of high-profile publications demonstrated that ob was a hormone that regulated body weight and fat deposition by regulating appetite. One of these was co-authored by Friedman, who christened it leptin from the ancient Greek word for thin. Using our model, the data from 1996 make it clear this advance would become a breakthrough. Scientists had flocked to study the biology of the new hormone, generating the flurry of new papers and citations required to produce a signal. One of these demonstrated that serum leptin concentrations reflected the amount of adipose tissue in the human body, providing clinical validation of the earlier mouse studies. Before the identification of leptin, scientists were unable to point to a specific molecule that controlled appetite and adiposity, so that it was impossible to rule out non-physiological causes of obesity; its characterization fundamentally changed our concept of weight gain. In 2010, Friedman and fellow pioneer Douglas Coleman were awarded a Lasker for the discovery. Our work also identifies breakthroughs in clinical practice and behavioral and social sciences, even though these areas are less likely to draw the attention of major prize committees. One example that falls into this category is the introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair, a minimally invasive surgical procedure for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm, a leading cause of death among Americans over the age of 65. Relative to the previous standard of care, it reduces in-hospital mortality by almost four-fold. In 2017, Timothy Chuter received the American College of Surgeons’ prestigious Jacobsen Innovation award for his multiple refinements to the technique. Another under-recognized breakthrough identified by our model is the development of standardized survey instruments to assess the quality of life for HIV+ patients. The antiretroviral cocktails introduced in the mid-1990s reduced AIDS mortality, but treatment came with serious side effects. The new evaluations showed that patients whose disease progressed had worse physical functioning than Americans with other chronic diseases, while those who were asymptomatic maintained a health-related quality of life on par with the overall US population. This evidence made it possible for patients and activists to argue that even in the absence of a total cure, and in spite of the side effects, alleviation of symptoms was a worthwhile priority for clinicians. My colleagues and I have failed to identify any significant recognition for the physicians and health policy experts who pioneered this advance, although in 2016, researchers called for the World Health Organization to set targets for good health-related quality of life as part of its framework to end the AIDS pandemic. From forecasting to funding How should science funders use our predictions? Any serious discussion of what we should do with this new capability needs to begin with an understanding of its limitations. We can’t (and shouldn’t) invest all of our resources in the small number of topics predicted to produce breakthroughs. Innovative new fields are born from existing ones; they rarely arise de novo. If funders don’t maintain a diverse portfolio, the breakthroughs of tomorrow will have no antecedents. Think of this as eating the seed corn, or killing the goose that lays the golden egg. There are also multiple goals of funding beyond basic scientific discovery, including translating discoveries into clinical practice, developing new technologies, supporting economic development, and training new scientists. The investments needed to accomplish these goals are likely different from those required to support emerging breakthroughs. Finally, we must be aware that we may not capture every instance of a breakthrough. The concept is fuzzy, and not every significant discovery is recognized with a major award. Further, breakthroughs are rare, meaning that our dataset is, by necessity, small. This makes formal estimates of accuracy challenging. Although our overall success rate appears to be high, any one signal may turn out to be a false positive. We found one apparent example: the development of the third generation COX-2 inhibitors, Vioxx and Celebrex, which were much celebrated in the early 2000s as effective but non-addictive pain relievers, meets all the algorithmic criteria of a breakthrough. Five years after it received FDA approval, researchers demonstrated that Vioxx was associated with serious cardiovascular complications, and the manufacturer voluntarily pulled the drug from the market. Celebrex remains available, although like other NSAIDs, it carries an FDA warning for increased cardiovascular risk. Decision makers who were overly focused on the breakthrough potential of this research might have wasted substantial resources nurturing an area that ultimately proved to be a failure—but so would those who relied on expert opinion at the time. That said, the potential benefits of funding the next mRNA vaccine or cancer immunotherapy years earlier than we might have are large. When we can’t assume the outcome of an action, it’s worth conducting an experiment. Can targeted support for areas that are poised to produce a breakthrough increase the return on scientific investment without cannibalizing future advances? With the necessary administrative infrastructure in place, conducting this experiment would be straightforward. First, identify all the breakthrough signals between 2018 and 2023, select half at random, and commit to a decade of investment. For biomedicine, a six year window should yield about 30 topics with the potential to produce a breakthrough. Providing strong support to half of these might be accomplished for $300 million a year. That’s roughly half of the recent annual budget of the NIH Common Fund or around 20% of the fiscal year 2025 budget for ARPA-H. After five years, then again at ten, compare to see which group — the one that was actively managed, or the control — produced more breakthroughs, and on what timescale. Although we used biomedicine as an example, the same experiment could just as well be run for physics, materials science, or any other discipline. Any attempt to undertake such an experiment should keep three points top of mind. First, we can predict the topic of future breakthroughs, but the people and vision for how to move the work forward are still important. In practice, this means success requires active program managers with the expertise to develop the science and the authority to do so, including by recruiting investigators. Second, we would be wise to learn from the failures of past attempts to fund transformative research. High among these are funding modestly repackaged work, confusing the genuinely novel with the merely unfamiliar, and relying too much on incumbent investigators. All of these risks can be mitigated by thoroughly and intelligently integrating high quality data into portfolio management. Finally, we need to have patience. Even with strong funding support, producing a breakthrough takes time. If supporting breakthroughs is the best way to nurture the birth of new fields, we also need to accurately describe and properly manage the other two stages, so that we invest wisely throughout the productive lifetime of ideas and divest once they reach the point of diminishing returns. We would benefit from more study of all of these phases, especially the transition from one to another. More research could answer questions like: When does a breakthrough become an established field? How do the availability of funding, the size and characteristics of the available workforce, and the accumulation of evidence that disagrees with prevailing models affect a field’s decline? Exactly how do old ideas give birth to new ones, and can we speed up the process? The more we understand about the dynamics of scientific progress, the better we can maximize the odds that our curiosity leads to results. I’d call that finding a way to make our own luck.

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Jun 25 • 4:48 PM EDT • Science • goodscience.substack.com
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How did Austin Reaves beat odds, land $185M deal with Lakers? Tiny town knows

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Jun 25 • 7:01 AM EDT • Sports • usatoday.com
Whole Health Institute looks to grow residencies

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Jun 24 • 7:20 AM EDT • Health • axios.com
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2026 World Cup Odds: Back Offensive Display In Canada-Switzerland

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Jun 23 • 5:56 PM EDT • Sports • foxsports.com
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Jun 22 • 10:10 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
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Jun 19 • 11:58 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
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Jun 19 • 11:15 AM EDT • Entertainment • gizmodo.com
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2026 World Cup Odds, Best Bet: Expect Offense Aplenty In USA-Australia

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Jun 18 • 5:31 PM EDT • Sports • foxsports.com
Where to watch Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: Live stream, start time, TV channel, odds for Thursday, June 18

The Yankees and White Sox finish up their series in the Bronx.

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Jun 18 • 1:40 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
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The Odds: Trump’s Iran War
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The Odds: America’s Birthday
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Mariners minor leaguer gets big-league call-up despite hitting .190 at High-A

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Jun 16 • 11:02 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
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The Odds: Vance 2028?
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Weightlifter Dodds added to Jersey team for Glasgow 2026

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Jun 15 • 3:17 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
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Roy Hattersley: Labour politician who helped start the party's modernisation

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Jun 14 • 5:29 PM EDT • Politics • bbc.com
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Webtoon Entertainment (WBTN) Stock After Geopolitical Relief Rally A Fresh Look At Valuation Claims

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Jun 14 • 4:16 AM EDT • Entertainment • simplywall.st
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