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Court backs state monitor in Orange County IDA lawsuit
A state Supreme Court dismissed a county IDA suit seeking to vacate a state monitor's "veto" of an $80 million tax break for a proposed Amazon center.
Cyclosporiasis Cases In Lenawee County
The Lenawee County Health Department is investigating a cluster of cyclosporiasis cases among Lenawee County residents. These cases are part of a multijurisdictional outbreak, and public health offici
Protecting Science. Advancing HIV Prevention. Preparing for What's Next
Global health is being reshaped by rapid geopolitical shifts, scientific breakthroughs and the growing role of artificial intelligence — creating both new opportunities and new challenges. Translating scientific breakthroughs into impact requires protecting research, advancing equitable access and ensuring communities are at the center. Explore AVAC’s latest resources to help navigate and shape what comes […]
Scientists say they have built a cell from scratch for the first time
Scientists say they have built a cell from scratch for the first time that feeds, grows and replicates like a natural cell, a breakthrough in synthetic biology.
Trump ‘excited’ for inaugural flight on Qatari-gifted Air Force One
President Donald Trump shared his excitement for the inaugural flight of the new Air Force One, a luxury jet donated by the government of Qatar, saying the US “couldn’t build a plane like this.”
Fire breaks out at Springfield business Wednesday morning
Crews are battling a fire at a Springfield business.
Unisun Sports Commences, Kicking Off 2026-27 Season
JACKSONVILLE, Fla. - Unisun Sports, the groundbreaking strategic alliance between the Atlantic Sun Conference (ASUN) and the United Athletic Conference (UAC), has officially commenced as of July 1, 2026. Unisun Sports will serve both conferences, designed to significantly enhance operational efficiency, foster deeper collaboration, and drive innovation across both NCAA Division I organizations.
Unisun Sports Commences, Kicking Off 2026-27 Season
Unisun Sports, the groundbreaking strategic alliance between the Atlantic Sun Conference (ASUN) and the United Athletic Conference (UAC), has officially commenced as of July 1, 2026. Unisun Sports will serve both conferences, designed to significantly enhance operational efficiency, foster deeper collaboration, and drive innovation across both NCAA Division I organizations.
Claude Helped a Hacker Find a Way to Issue Tickets to Almost Every US Music Festival
A researcher found that using Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.7, he could break into the website of Front Gate—used by every festival from Lollapalooza to Bonnaroo—and freely issue any ticket he chose.
Why high earners are rushing to use this vacation-rental tax break
The Big Beautiful Bill made a tax loophole permanent for Airbnb investors. Here's how they're getting the IRS to fund their downpayments.
Android 17's new lock screen trick could frustrate anyone trying to break into your phone
Google has detailed how Android 17 implements tougher lock screen security by drastically reducing PIN guess attempts and more.
Port Arthur businesses demand better notice after water line break halts operations
A series of water line breaks in Port Arthur left some local restaurants without water and with little warning, forcing them to scramble, shut down service and
Jennifer Lopez says her 'biggest growth spurts' have come after breakups: 'What could I have done better?'
Jennifer Lopez, who has been divorced four times, says her 'biggest growth spurts' have come after breakups: 'What could I have done better?'
2026 Best of the 'Burgh Winners: Entertainment and Leisure
Activity Bar Pins Mechanical Co. Bed & Breakfast The Mansions On Fifth Luxury Hotel Boutique Hotel Kimpton Hotel Monaco Pittsburgh Camp for Kids
5 things to know about an emerging drug-resistant fungus now putting hospitals at risk of outbreaks
Memo to health execs: If your hospital hasn’t had a C. auris scare yet, odds are quite high that it soon will.
More than 150 people in 7 Michigan counties sickened by parasite
Michigan health leaders say they're investigating the source of an outbreak of a gastrointestinal illness that's sickened 150 people in 7 counties.
Mayor Mamdani, NYC Health + Hospitals break ground on $255M River Commons, bringing 328 affordable affordable homes to the South Bronx
The city has broken ground on River Commons, a mixed-use development in Morrisania that will bring 328 affordable and supportive apartments, an expanded
The Four Business Outcomes That Break When Enterprises Stop Validating Their Defenses - SPONSOR CONTENT FROM AWS AND TERRA SECURITY
Sponsor content from AWS and Terra Security.
Penguins trade Parker Wotherspoon after a breakout season in return for Vegas defenseman Kaedan Korczak
The Penguins made a surprising trade Tuesday, sending defenseman Parker Wotherspoon to the Vegas Golden Knights in exchange for defenseman Kaedan Korczak. Korczak,...
Opinion | California Politics Is Bought With Donations
We won’t get true policy improvements until we break the connection between fundraising for campaigns and our electoral system.
Report: Apple Watch Redesign Coming Next Year With New Band System
A "major overhaul" of the Apple Watch's design is due to arrive next year with a new system for connecting bands, according to a known Weibo leaker. In a set of recent posts, the leaker known as "Instant Digital" linked the new claim to older rumors about an "Apple Watch X" model, which was said to introduce a fresh design and break compatibility with the existing watch band system.
PAHO expands health response as Venezuela faces mounting health risks after devastating earthquakes
Caracas, Venezuela/Washington, D.C., 30 June 2026 (PAHO) – The Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) is expanding its support to Venezuela's Ministry of Health following the two powerful earthquakes that struck the country on 24 June, deploying technical experts, coordinating international Emergency Medical Teams (EMTs), assessing damaged health facilities, and mobilizing emergency medical supplies to support lifesaving care and reduce the risk of disease outbreaks.
'Lilo & Stitch' star Daveigh Chase's father reacts to daughter's death from AIDS at 35
'Lilo & Stitch' and 'The Ring' actress Daveigh Chase's father offered a heartbreaking reaction to his daughter's death after the medical examiner's office ruled her cause of death to be AIDS.
DR Congo health workers battle Ebola despite scant protection
In Ituri, DR Congo's Ebola epicenter, overwhelmed clinics and a lack of protective gear leave health workers exposed as the outbreak spreads beyond control.
The Taste Advantage: Inside The Vogue Business x Sparks Cannes Lions Breakfast
Vogue Business and Sparks convened a group of CMOs and other luxury leaders during Cannes Lions to discuss the future of meaningful connection.
CNN Host and Chief Legal Analyst Laura Coates, breaks down the major rulings by the Supreme Court on presidential power.
Cyclosporiasis cases on the rise in Monroe County, health officials say
An outbreak of Cyclosporiasis is spreading in Monroe County, health officials announced on Monday.
Mpls council member cites 'mass shootings, federal occupation' for mental health leave
Minneapolis City Council member Aisha Chughtai said on Monday that she plans to take a month-long break from city activities to seek care for her mental health, citing stressors such as an election, mass shootings and a federal occupation as stressors for her condition.
Salary cap ramifications of Terrion Arnold’s release
Breaking down the finances and salary cap ramifications Terrion Arnold’s release from the Detroit Lions.
Peptides are the latest US health craze. But what exactly are they?
While peptides are taking the health and wellness category by storm for various use cases, what exactly are they? Leerink Partners senior research analyst Michael Cherny helps break down what a peptides are, how people are choosing them for personal health and recovery reasons, and who the biggest winners in consumer pharmaceuticals could be if their popularity continues to grow.
Free exhibition at the Science History Institute breaks down the flash, bang and boom of fireworks
"Flash! Bang! Boom! A History of Fireworks" at the Science History Institute is a blast. The free exhibition, in celebration of America's 250th, explores the history and science behind the spectacular Fourth of July tradition.
Patrick Mahomes Shares Emotional Four-Word Message After NFL Legend’s Heartbreaking Health News
Patrick Mahomes was among the NFL stars sending support after Chris Johnson announced his ALS diagnosis. The post Patrick Mahomes Shares Emotional Four-Word Message After NFL Legend’s Heartbreaking Health News appeared first on HEAVY.
Fantasy Baseball Bullpen Report: Breaking down every team's closer situation at the halfway point
Grant Taylor, Alex Lange and Yoendrys Gomez headline the latest bullpen report
Comcast cuts NBCUniversal loose. Netflix and Apple may want a look.
Comcast spent 25 years arguing that media and broadband belonged together. Now it's breaking them apart.
Your menstrual cycle may affect how well vaccines work
Women who were vaccinated against covid-19 in the luteal phase of their menstrual cycle reported having a breakthrough infection sooner than those vaccinated during their follicular phase
Former NFL star Chris Johnson makes heartbreaking health announcement
The NFL is filled with gridiron legends who sacrifice their bodies every Sunday in pursuit of a Super Bowl championship. But even the game’s greatest stars aren’t invincible. On Monday, former Tennessee Titans running back Chris Johnson revealed that he…
Titans Legend Chris Johnson Reveals Heartbreaking ALS Diagnosis
Former Tennessee Titans star and NFL great Chris Johnson shared his diagnosis publicly for the first time, hoping his story will inspire awareness, research, and hope for others battling ALS.
World Cup: our breakout XI from the group stage ⚡️
They made a name for themselves!The World Cup, even more so with 48 teams, is always an opportunity to discover new players, but also to allow others to truly make themselves known to the general publ...
Political Control of Research Funding Threatens Sound Science
Decades of federal research funding have led to breakthroughs in medicine, technology, and environmental science. A new OMB proposal aims to derail all of this through political interference.
GLP-1s 101: What the science says about weight loss, side effects, safety
We asked Stanford Medicine experts to break down everything you need to know about the drugs known as GLP-1s, semaglutide, Ozempic, Wegovy, Zepbound and many more.
Comcast says it will spin off NBCUniversal
Comcast’s media businesses, including NBC, Peacock and Universal, are moving one step closer to a sale.
Breaking: T-Mobile To Force Migrate Over 8 Million Customers To More Expensive Plans
Bad news for loyal long-time customers of T-Mobile: prices are about to go up by quite a lot.
Benchmark Scores Don’t Break. Clinical Reality Does. The Health AI Readiness Illusion.
Nature Medicine's frontier AI evaluation exposes a dangerous gap: models acing medical benchmarks collapse under adversarial pressure, and the FDA has no…
Winning Before Kickoff: The science behind success at the 2026 FIFA World Cup
The World Cup is usually remembered for what happens after the whistle: the impossible assist, the heroic save, the deflection that turns a nation’s hope into heartbreak. But in 2026, some of the most important contests may be decided before kickoff, in training rooms, recovery suites, flight schedules, hydration plans, and cooling protocols. Science cannot eliminate soccer’s glorious unpredictability, but it can help teams survive it.
Breakthrough could lead to ‘big leaps’ in battery performance, scientists say
Researchers studied lithium-ion batteries, which are used for electric vehicles as well as portable electronics such as mobile phones and laptops.
Efzimfotase alfa demonstrated improvements in bone health in treatment-naïve pediatric patients with hypophosphatasia achieving median difference of 1.67 vs placebo in RGI-C Score at week 25 in MULBERRY Phase III trial
Positive results from the MULBERRY Phase III trial showed that efzimfotase alfa (ALXN1850), an investigational enzyme replacement therapy, demonstrated a statistically significant and clinically meaningful improvement in bone health in children (2 to
Pennsylvania measles outbreak tops 70 cases as health leaders pledge to get spread ‘under control’
The most recent measles outbreak started in the area of Lebanon and Lancaster counties in late April. Cases now span six counties.
🚨 BREAKING: Robert Lewandowski agrees multi-year deal with Chicago Fire
Major League Soccer looks set to add another iconic veteran presence to its ranks this summer, with Polish legend Robert Lewandowski reportedly primed for a move to Chicago Fire.Per The Athletic, the ...
Gretchen Walsh breaks Kate Douglass' 50 meter freestyle World Record
Gretchen Walsh has broken the 50 meter freestyle world record, becoming the fastest female sprinter in the history of swimming.
Panthers rookie WR shares his offseason work in highlight tape
Panthers rookie WR Chris Brazzell II impressed at spring workouts, and he hasn't slowed down during his summer break. Check out his highlights . . .
Xbox Pre-Order Sales For GTA 6 Break Records Despite PS5 Blitz
Microsoft says Xbox pre-order sales have broken records
Q&A: Why humanitarian aid is crucial to stopping the Ebola outbreak
Health officials say the Ebola response cannot succeed without addressing the humanitarian crisis.
Laramie County health and food inspections (6/19/26–6/25/26)
CHEYENNE, Wyo. — The Cheyenne-Laramie County Health Department inspects restaurants, bars, convenience stores, delis, grocery stores, bed and breakfasts
Michelle Pfeiffer reveals why she felt 'humiliated' auditioning for her breakthrough film role
Climate change to blame for intensity of Europe heat wave: Scientists
Human-caused climate change is "unequivocally" responsible for the intensity of a record-breaking heat wave scorching Europe, scientists said Friday.
Lingering distrust, low vaccine rates threaten containment of Lancaster measles outbreak
LANCASTER, Pa. — A growing distrust of health professionals seems to be undermining their efforts in central and southeastern Pennsylvania to stop...
Magnetic sperm and the ugliest shark: science stories of the week
From a lupus breakthrough to why humans drift left when they walk, here are the most interesting scientific developments of the week
Magnetic sperm and the ugliest shark: science stories of the week
From a lupus breakthrough to why humans naturally move anticlockwise, here are the most interesting scientific developments of the week
South Korea's 'dismal' World Cup ends in group phase
South Korea's turbulent World Cup ended at the group phase on Saturday and could lead to the international retirement of captain Son Heung-min."Son Heung-min's final World Cup ends in heartbreak," a headline said.
MINNEAPOLIMEDIA PRESENTS | This Weekend in the Twin Cities – Entertainment Guide: June 26 ~ June 28, 2026 Edition
Twin Cities Pride, Breakaway, Broadway, concerts, festivals and family fun headline one of summer's biggest weekends across Minneapolis and Saint Paul.
Soccer meets nature at Vancouver mountaintop watch party
The match between England and Panama was shown on a big screen atop Grouse Mountain, a 4,100-foot mountain that's part of the Pacific Ranges with a sweeping view of British Columbia. When Jude Bellingham scored England's breakthrough goal in the second half, the fans roared. Both Toronto and Vancouver are hosting matches during the tournament.
You’ve never seen this before: the shocking moment the sound barrier breaks - Futura-Sciences
The XB-1 is a critical stepping stone toward commercial supersonic travel, representing the first civil designed aircraft to break the sound barrier since the Concorde retired. To verify the aircraft’s aerodynamic performance during its supersonic transition, NASA deployed an advanced optical technology called schlieren imaging to make the invisible forces...
HISTORY IN THE MAKING: A RECORD-BREAKING OPENING DAY AT THE PAN AMERICAN ATHLETICS CHAMPIONSHIP MEDELLÍN 2026
The Pan American Athletics Championship delivered everything the Americas had been waiting […]
Five Million Americans Lost ACA Health Insurance—Here’s What That Could Mean For Public Health
New data shows 5 million Americans have lost health insurance through the ACA. A doctor breaks down the downstream consequences for public health in America.
Don't break the tech tools small businesses use to compete
Forcing companies to split up their integrated services would increase costs and headaches for businesses like mine, writes Andrea Ramker.
Former Eagles WR A.J. Brown Predicted to Threaten NFL Record
NFL.com's Bucky Brooks predicts former Eagles WR A.J. Brown could break the 2,000-yard receiving mark with the Patriots in 2026. The post Former Eagles WR A.J. Brown Predicted to Threaten NFL Record appeared first on HEAVY.
Scratching that bug bite might feel good at first but science explains why it's a bad idea
You scratched that bug bite and now it's a big itchier bump. Some science explains why scratching really can make things worse, even if you don't break the skin. University of Pittsburgh researchers put tiny “cones of shame” onto mice to help unravel what happens on a cellular level when an itch ...
Scratching that bug bite might feel good at first but science explains why it's a bad idea
You scratched that bug bite and now it's a big itchier bump. Some science explains why scratching really can make things worse, even if you don't break the skin. University
Fallout from USMNT loss to Turkey and previewing the Mbappe-Haaland clash
On today’s show, we look back at the United States’ final group stage match against Turkey and evaluate their readiness for the Round of 32. Manchester City insider Sam Lee joins us to preview the tournament’s first true superstar heavyweight clash as Kylian Mbappe and France square off against Erling Haaland and Norway in a battle for Group I supremacy. Plus, The Athletic’s Jay Harris is back in the studio to break down the latest bracketology, advancement percentages, and qualification permutations for Groups G, H, and I using The Athletic’s World Cup Tracker.
Breakfast, lunch, dinner to hit 30g fiber goal: Nutrition scientist
You may eat fiber for gut health, but it plays many crucial roles in the body, from lowering cholesterol to helping to control glucose levels.
Why the Samsung Galaxy Z Fold 8 Ultra is Breaking the Internet
Discover the leaked specs and design details of the upcoming Samsung Galaxy Z Fold 8 and Z Fold 8 Ultra ahead of their July 26 unveiling.
Politics Unplugged Podcast: Headlines with Stacy Pearson and Marcus Dell’Artino
The Politics Unplugged panel breaks down a possible Arizona special session tied to ESA vouchers, union protections and ballot measures. The discussion centers on whether lawmakers could unwind late-night legislation that angered teachers, police and firefighters. They also examine Gov. Katie Hobbs’ political leverage and why both parties may have reasons to cut a deal. Later, the podcast turns to Trump tax cuts, Democratic Socialists, the White House reflecting pool controversy and the World Cup.
Police seek help identifying suspect in California Avenue business break-in
The Bakersfield Police Department is asking for the community’s help in identifying a man accused of breaking into a business on California AvenuePolice said it
Falcons Roundtable: Kyle Pitts Extension Done, Is Bijan Robinson Next?
The Falcons continue to lock up the core of their roster for the future. This week's Falcons Roundtable breaks down Kyle Pitts' new extension, whether his deal or Drake London's is the better value, and why Bijan Robinson appears to be the next superstar in line for a record-setting contract.
Registration open for 2026 Behavioral Health & Children and Family Services Conference | Health and Human Services North Dakota
Registration is now open for the sixth annual Behavioral Health & Children and Family Services Conference, scheduled for Sept. 14-17 at the Bismarck Event Center and online through a livestream option.The main conference will take place Sept. 15-17, with optional pre- and post-conference sessions offered Sept. 14 and Sept. 17.More than 1,400 in-person attendees and hundreds of virtual participants are expected to take part in keynote presentations, breakout sessions and networking opportunities focused on behavioral health, child welfare, suicide prevention and youth development.
As Pa. measles outbreak worsens, state health official issue strong call to action: 'We are not just sitting back and watching this virus spread'
LANCASTER, Pa. — State Health Secretary Debra Bogen on Friday issued a strong call to action in the wake of a measles outbreak not seen in Pennsylvania...
Pennsylvania’s Health Secretary unveils plan to combat measles outbreaks
LANCASTER COUNTY, Pa. (WHTM) — Pennsylvania’s Health Secretary Dr. Debra Bogen was in Lancaster County on Friday, giving an update about the measles outbreak in the state, with most of …
Jackson business owner charged with murder after 21-year-old man shot
A suspected vehicle break-in ended in gunfire in Jackson. Police say the business owner now faces murder charges after the 21-year-old victim died during surgery.
Morning Break: Joe Horn set for Louisiana Sports Hall of Fame induction, Bryce Lance turning heads
A collection of headlines and news about the Saints and the NFL for Friday, June 26
Chaotic Push to Train Staff for US Ebola Outbreak Facility Alarms Health Workers
The three-day session focused more on administrative tasks than spread prevention.
NFL breakout players for the 2026 season
A team of NFL players poised to have breakout campaigns in 2026.
Whole Hog Politics: It was voters, not Senate Republicans, who forced Trump’s hand on Iran
[Watch Whole Hog Politics live: Join us today at 9 am ET at TheHill.com as Chris Stirewalt and host Bill Sammon break down this week’s political news and answer questions from a live online audienc…
Most Patients Want Docs To Break Cancer News Directly, Not Through Portal Messaging
By Dennis Thompson HealthDay ReporterFRIDAY, June 25, 2026 (HealthDay News) — People are becoming more comfortable communicating with their doctor through clinics’ patient portals. Folks use the portals to ask their doc questions and even to review the results of recent medical tests. But there are ...
Medical breakthroughs collide with the health system
The buzziest advances — like personalized gene therapies or AI-discovered drugs — may not deliver.
Commitment season looming as Ohio State staff awaits
The month of June has been a grind for Ohio State’s coaching staff. Position camps, recruiting visits, and still prioritizing their current roster, the Buckeyes have had zero time off… and that will soon change. Ryan Day and company set to be on vacation in the coming days for a well deserved break, that doesn’t […]
Cabo Verde Is a Breakout Star of the World Cup. So Is the Family-Owned Business That Designed Its Jerseys
After more than three decades manufacturing apparel, Capelli Sport co-founder and CEO George Altirs found his company’s biggest billboard yet—3,500 miles away from his midtown Manhattan office.
DJ and presenter Trevor Nelson taking a break from work due to health issues
The Radio 2 presenter said he was now "concentrating on getting better".
MINNEAPOLIMEDIA PRESENTS | This Weekend in the Twin Cities – Entertainment Guide: June 26 ~ June 28, 2026 Edition
Twin Cities weekend features Pride, Breakaway, concerts, festivals, theater, museums and family events across Minneapolis, St. Paul and beyond.
Three Chicago Bears make CBS Sports’ Top 100 NFL Players of 2026 List
With the NFL on a break, get ready for list season, and CBS Sports just dropped their Top 100 Players, and three Chicago Bears made the cut.
Thieves are breaking through drywall to burglarize Chicago businesses, police warn
Chicago police issued a community alert on Thursday warning that several businesses have been burglarized by thieves who broke in through the drywall.
Making Our Own Luck
We are cross-posting a piece that former NIH official Kris Willis wrote for Macroscience. Kris is now the President and Founder of the Woodley Park Institute, for which I’m a board member. Picking winners or hedging bets? Federal science agencies have long wrestled with the question of how to ensure their billions of dollars of grants and contracts result in maximum benefits for Americans. On the surface, it might seem that a goal-oriented, interventionist style of management would be the best policy: prioritize our most pressing problems and distribute funding accordingly.This top-down strategy creates a unique hazard, though: bad choices can send resources in the wrong direction, resulting in slow progress that impedes the delivery of tangible benefits to citizens. Moreover, if decision makers pursue an applied advance when the underlying scientific principles remain poorly understood, they risk costly failures and a loss of support for the research enterprise at large. Examples include Nixon’s 1971 War on Cancer, undertaken on the premise that a cure could be achieved in less than a decade, the drive to build an operational commercial fusion plant by the mid-1990s, and the National Plan to Address Alzheimer’s Disease, which failed to produce the effective treatments and prevention strategies promised by 2025. The contrasting laissez-faire approach is to hedge your bets. If the path to an advance is impossible to predict, then the wisest choice might be to distribute funding to as widely as possible. The main risk of this strategy is that spreading funding thinly may limit the resources available to the most promising research, resulting in the same negative outcomes as the interventionist approach: limited support for the most promising topics, slow progress, and delayed returns. In reality, at science agencies like the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health, program managers navigate between these two extremes, setting some funds aside to target high-priority areas and using the rest to cover the widest possible range of meritorious proposals. This middle path seems like the most rational way to proceed, but it still requires making choices. How much should be set aside for high priority topics? What should those topics be? How should we define merit? Expert opinion can provide a helpful guide, but leading experts can have remarkably different opinions about what matters and what should be prioritized. Moreover, experts and administrators alike can be risk averse, giving an edge to high-profile, well-established concepts. What’s really needed is a data-driven framework to help guide decision-making, one that doesn’t simply repackage prestige or incumbency. Recognizing breakthroughs years in advance Many breakthroughs fail to attract funding or recognition at the earliest stages of development. Katalin Karikó, for example, spent years struggling to win grants for work on mRNA that would eventually win her and Drew Weissman a Nobel Prize. Similar stories can be told about Jim Allison’s groundbreaking studies leading to the development of cancer immunotherapy, Stan Pruisner’s demonstration that prions can self-replicate without DNA, or Robin Warren and Barry Marshall’s proof that Helicobacter pylori, not stress, causes ulcers. Yet at some point, the scientific community recognizes and responds to transformative breakthroughs like these. How does that change happen? And what if science funders could identify the areas that are on the cusp of a breakthrough? Those questions led my collaborators and me to study how scientists responded to past breakthroughs. Based on patterns in that data, we developed a means of predicting future breakthroughs, using biomedicine as a proof of concept. It’s worth taking a moment to describe how our approach works. Briefly, our prediction process begins by grouping the 18 million or so peer-reviewed papers in PubMed, the authoritative database of biomedical research, into roughly 50,000 unique topics. A small subset of these topics are so widely acclaimed as breakthroughs that they have been recognized with a major prize like a Nobel or a Lasker Award. We theorized that studying the development of these outliers over time, especially before they gained acclaim, was the key to identifying future instances of them. After defining topics, we chose 21 representative breakthroughs and asked what they looked like before they won prestigious prizes. To answer that question, we re-ran our topic-mapping algorithm repeatedly, winding back the clock one year each time, stringing together the years to follow the progress of each field as it grew and advanced. We found that in each case, the years leading up to a discovery followed a pattern: a burst of papers on a new, rapidly evolving topic, many of which quickly became influential. These characteristics—the percent of papers that are new, the percentage of papers that are brought in from other topics, and the influence of each individual paper—can all be measured separately for any given topic. Together, they act as a predictive signal that is detectable an average of five years before a transformative discovery is made, and up to thirty years before the discovery receives a major prize. Scanning the current research landscape for topics that display this signal allows us to predict what work will likely produce a future breakthrough. Each year we analyzed includes four or five signals, a number that appears to have remained constant across a twenty year time frame. In their classic work on the sociology of science, Bruno Latour and Steve Woolgar established that the desire to participate in a major discovery is an important motivator for scientists as they consider whether they should take up (or abandon) a research problem. Although further work is needed, the simplest explanation for our results is that this behavior is widespread enough to detect at scale. A foundational advance, or something like it, draws the attention of scientists and causes them to change the direction of their research. They vote with their feet, staking their own reputation and careers by publishing on and citing the new idea. That upswell of interest is the foundation of our breakthrough signal. What kind of research does our model identify as a breakthrough? After building a model based on the patterns in our 21 preselected breakthroughs, we tested it by identifying all early signals of discovery from 1994 through 1997. Of the 18 signals we found in that time period, 17 can be traced forward in time to a breakthrough. Examples include super-resolution fluorescence microscopy (see the image above), the directed evolution of proteins and enzymes (Chemistry Nobel, 2018), and sequencing the human genome (National Medal of Science, 2008). The discovery of the role of leptin signaling in obesity is a particularly interesting case study. Around 1950, scientists noticed the existence of a type of lab mouse that suffered from a unique inherited form of obesity. When given the freedom to choose their own diet, these mice ate more than normal and preferred food that was high in fat. Researchers had few clues as to why the animals overate; early experiments pointed to the existence of a soluble ob factor found circulating in the bloodstream that regulated appetite, but its identity was unknown. In 1994, Jeffrey Friedman and colleagues identified and sequenced the ob gene, noting that the protein it encoded appeared to fit the profile of a circulating factor. A year later, a trio of high-profile publications demonstrated that ob was a hormone that regulated body weight and fat deposition by regulating appetite. One of these was co-authored by Friedman, who christened it leptin from the ancient Greek word for thin. Using our model, the data from 1996 make it clear this advance would become a breakthrough. Scientists had flocked to study the biology of the new hormone, generating the flurry of new papers and citations required to produce a signal. One of these demonstrated that serum leptin concentrations reflected the amount of adipose tissue in the human body, providing clinical validation of the earlier mouse studies. Before the identification of leptin, scientists were unable to point to a specific molecule that controlled appetite and adiposity, so that it was impossible to rule out non-physiological causes of obesity; its characterization fundamentally changed our concept of weight gain. In 2010, Friedman and fellow pioneer Douglas Coleman were awarded a Lasker for the discovery. Our work also identifies breakthroughs in clinical practice and behavioral and social sciences, even though these areas are less likely to draw the attention of major prize committees. One example that falls into this category is the introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair, a minimally invasive surgical procedure for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm, a leading cause of death among Americans over the age of 65. Relative to the previous standard of care, it reduces in-hospital mortality by almost four-fold. In 2017, Timothy Chuter received the American College of Surgeons’ prestigious Jacobsen Innovation award for his multiple refinements to the technique. Another under-recognized breakthrough identified by our model is the development of standardized survey instruments to assess the quality of life for HIV+ patients. The antiretroviral cocktails introduced in the mid-1990s reduced AIDS mortality, but treatment came with serious side effects. The new evaluations showed that patients whose disease progressed had worse physical functioning than Americans with other chronic diseases, while those who were asymptomatic maintained a health-related quality of life on par with the overall US population. This evidence made it possible for patients and activists to argue that even in the absence of a total cure, and in spite of the side effects, alleviation of symptoms was a worthwhile priority for clinicians. My colleagues and I have failed to identify any significant recognition for the physicians and health policy experts who pioneered this advance, although in 2016, researchers called for the World Health Organization to set targets for good health-related quality of life as part of its framework to end the AIDS pandemic. From forecasting to funding How should science funders use our predictions? Any serious discussion of what we should do with this new capability needs to begin with an understanding of its limitations. We can’t (and shouldn’t) invest all of our resources in the small number of topics predicted to produce breakthroughs. Innovative new fields are born from existing ones; they rarely arise de novo. If funders don’t maintain a diverse portfolio, the breakthroughs of tomorrow will have no antecedents. Think of this as eating the seed corn, or killing the goose that lays the golden egg. There are also multiple goals of funding beyond basic scientific discovery, including translating discoveries into clinical practice, developing new technologies, supporting economic development, and training new scientists. The investments needed to accomplish these goals are likely different from those required to support emerging breakthroughs. Finally, we must be aware that we may not capture every instance of a breakthrough. The concept is fuzzy, and not every significant discovery is recognized with a major award. Further, breakthroughs are rare, meaning that our dataset is, by necessity, small. This makes formal estimates of accuracy challenging. Although our overall success rate appears to be high, any one signal may turn out to be a false positive. We found one apparent example: the development of the third generation COX-2 inhibitors, Vioxx and Celebrex, which were much celebrated in the early 2000s as effective but non-addictive pain relievers, meets all the algorithmic criteria of a breakthrough. Five years after it received FDA approval, researchers demonstrated that Vioxx was associated with serious cardiovascular complications, and the manufacturer voluntarily pulled the drug from the market. Celebrex remains available, although like other NSAIDs, it carries an FDA warning for increased cardiovascular risk. Decision makers who were overly focused on the breakthrough potential of this research might have wasted substantial resources nurturing an area that ultimately proved to be a failure—but so would those who relied on expert opinion at the time. That said, the potential benefits of funding the next mRNA vaccine or cancer immunotherapy years earlier than we might have are large. When we can’t assume the outcome of an action, it’s worth conducting an experiment. Can targeted support for areas that are poised to produce a breakthrough increase the return on scientific investment without cannibalizing future advances? With the necessary administrative infrastructure in place, conducting this experiment would be straightforward. First, identify all the breakthrough signals between 2018 and 2023, select half at random, and commit to a decade of investment. For biomedicine, a six year window should yield about 30 topics with the potential to produce a breakthrough. Providing strong support to half of these might be accomplished for $300 million a year. That’s roughly half of the recent annual budget of the NIH Common Fund or around 20% of the fiscal year 2025 budget for ARPA-H. After five years, then again at ten, compare to see which group — the one that was actively managed, or the control — produced more breakthroughs, and on what timescale. Although we used biomedicine as an example, the same experiment could just as well be run for physics, materials science, or any other discipline. Any attempt to undertake such an experiment should keep three points top of mind. First, we can predict the topic of future breakthroughs, but the people and vision for how to move the work forward are still important. In practice, this means success requires active program managers with the expertise to develop the science and the authority to do so, including by recruiting investigators. Second, we would be wise to learn from the failures of past attempts to fund transformative research. High among these are funding modestly repackaged work, confusing the genuinely novel with the merely unfamiliar, and relying too much on incumbent investigators. All of these risks can be mitigated by thoroughly and intelligently integrating high quality data into portfolio management. Finally, we need to have patience. Even with strong funding support, producing a breakthrough takes time. If supporting breakthroughs is the best way to nurture the birth of new fields, we also need to accurately describe and properly manage the other two stages, so that we invest wisely throughout the productive lifetime of ideas and divest once they reach the point of diminishing returns. We would benefit from more study of all of these phases, especially the transition from one to another. More research could answer questions like: When does a breakthrough become an established field? How do the availability of funding, the size and characteristics of the available workforce, and the accumulation of evidence that disagrees with prevailing models affect a field’s decline? Exactly how do old ideas give birth to new ones, and can we speed up the process? The more we understand about the dynamics of scientific progress, the better we can maximize the odds that our curiosity leads to results. I’d call that finding a way to make our own luck.
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