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Exit 8 is cinema for the livestreaming era
When watching a video game is entertainment, what is watching a movie of a video game?
This dangerous vomiting and diarrhea virus is surging across the US
Cases of the virus are abnormally high this year, according to health experts, and are especially dangerous for children.
Stock market today: Indexes hit records after Iran says Hormuz is open
US stocks surged and oil prices plunged after Iran announced the Strait of Hormuz was "completely open," removing a key overhang for markets.
How Islamophobic rhetoric leaves an impact on the mental health of Muslim Americans
Negative portrayals of Muslims shape public attitudes and lead to increased discrimination, often resulting in hate crimes and psychological harm.
Things People Thought Were 'Rich People Stuff' As Kids
I don't care what anyone says, Viennetta ice cream cake will always be an expensive delicacy in my eyes.
Childhood Acid Load May Affect Adult Kidney Health
Higher net acid excretion in childhood and adolescence is linked to signs of declining kidney function in adulthood.
Drug-resistant bacteria causing bloody diarrhea is growing threat
Here's a look at how to prevent drug-resistant shigella, a type of bacteria that causes shigellosis, a diarrheal infection.
Brain health: Staying more active during the day helps retain brain volume
Older adults with a more fragmented circadian rest-activity rhythm lost more brain volume in areas typically affected by Alzheimer’s disease, research has found.
Warhammer 40,000 rules reveal – Shoot from the saddle with Inquisitor Kroyle and Intranzia Fraye
We continue our look at the rules of units released alongside Armageddon: The Return of Yarrick.
Deadline Hollywood
CBS Entertainment Chief Addresses 'Watson' & 'DMV' Cancellations: "We Had To Make Tough Decisions" Read more below.
Ella Triunfa Series to Spotlight Women Breaking Barriers in Business a
Join us for an inspiring fireside chat with two powerhouse leaders from L’Oréal and The Campbell’s Company as we celebrate women who are breaking barriers, leading with purpose and shaping the future
Box office powerhouse Disney to show theater owners what’s next
The Walt Disney Co. is closing out CinemaCon on Thursday in Las Vegas. The company dominated the box office in 2025 with nearly $2.5 billion in domestic ticket sales. Hits like “Lilo & Stitch,”...
World Cup excitement boosts local collectibles business
Excitement is growing as the World Cup comes closer to the Commonwealth and local businesses are already seeing a boost.
Meta Quest headset prices are going up on April 19
Meta is blaming the increases on the RAM crisis.
Alabama Football 2026: Meet the New Special Teamers
Alabama went with a full overhaul after a rough special teams outing in 2025
Browning High School Students to Showcase Mental Health App at National Science Fair
Throughout the school year, Aiyahna Green, Sophia Guerrero-Gobert and Kalani SunRhodes met during their lunch periods, hunching over their phones. The three Browning High School seniors were building an app that could help provide mental health resources for teenagers. The girls represent the Browning High School chapter of Code Girls United, a nonprofit that since […]
Jonesboro cardiologist to be featured on Discovery, Science channels
A St. Bernards cardiologist will showcase her expertise on the Discovery Channel and the Science Channel this weekend.
Astra Militarum rules revealed – Commissar Graves and new vehicles
Armoured vehicles rumble from the hives of Armageddon to open up new tactics in Warhammer 40,000.
Community, business leaders learn about economic growth during annual breakfast
There are many pieces in the healthy economy puzzle. Iowa Economic Development Authority (IEDA) Director Debi Durham spoke at the Marshalltown Area Chamber of Commerce Economic Outlook Breakfast on Wednesday morning and shared what should be done to help foster growth in local economies. Chamber President/CEO John Hall sat on the stage with Durham at […]
Common IBS medications linked to higher risk of death in major study
A massive, nearly 20-year study tracking over 650,000 Americans with irritable bowel syndrome is raising new questions about the long-term safety of common treatments. Researchers found that some widely used medications—including antidepressants and certain antidiarrheal drugs—were linked to a small but noticeable increase in the risk of death over time.
Amid ‘constant' data center noise, Sterling residents also worry about health impact
Residents of a Sterling neighborhood already are upset about constant data center noise — and now they have a new concern. A study done for an environmental group shows emissions from the center could have severe health consequences. Operators of the data center say they are fully compliant with state and local rules. Whether it’s daytime or the dead of…
Siri Engineers Sent to AI Coding Bootcamp as Apple Prepares to Deliver Siri Overhaul
Apple is sending a large portion of its Siri engineers to a multi-week bootcamp to learn to code using AI, reports The Information. Apple's decision to teach its programmers to better use AI for coding comes just two months before Apple is expected to unveil a smarter, more capable version of Siri at WWDC. While employees attend the coding bootcamp, around 60 members of the Siri development team will stick around to work on Siri, and an additional 60 will evaluate how Siri is performing.
Life-threatening virus that causes vomiting and diarrhea at high levels in the U.S., CDC says
Rotavirus is highly contagious, fast-moving and especially dangerous for babies and young children. Doctors worry declining vaccination rates could lead to more hospitalizations.
Hungary’s Magyar urges president to quit, vows to overhaul state media
Incoming Prime Minister Peter Magyar says his government could be formed by mid-May.
Amazon buys former Hermon drive-in
Tax records show the approximately 20-acre property was purchased by Amazon for $1.9 million, more than three times the fair market value. Amazon has already opened a shipping hub in Caribou, with plans for more in Gorham and Waterville.
State approves $3 Million for Northwest Jacksonville programs for small businesses, crime prevention
City officials announced that the state has approved a $3 million appropriation to support programs in northwest Jacksonville aimed at boosting small businesses, expanding vocational and workforce training, addressing food insecurity and preventing youth crime.
Allbirds shares surge over 430% as footwear firm trades shoes for AI business
In a radical strategic overhaul, Allbirds is divesting its footwear business while securing $50 million (€42.4 million) in new financing to acquire GPUs and rebrand as NewBird AI.View on euronews
I had a health crisis at 46 — it forced me to change everything
Sydney Sajadi, 46, says a hysterectomy and severe burnout pushed her to overhaul her health and rethink her high-stress career.
Black Maternal Health Week: PRH in Action
PRH highlights Black Maternal Health Week 2026, addressing pregnancy criminalization, racial inequities, and solutions for equitable care.
Trump unloads on Powell, says he could fire Fed chair over ‘incompetence’
President Donald Trump joins FOX Business' Maria Bartiromo to discuss the AI race with China, Iran tensions, NATO clashes, and his push to overhaul the Fed while touting a strong U.S. economy and global strength.
Cards ride JJ Wetherholt's power surge into finale vs. Guardians
Cards ride JJ Wetherholt's power surge into finale vs. Guardians
UChicago paleontologist announces plans for Washington Park science center focused on teen education
The more than 45,000-square-foot center planned for the Washington Park neighborhood will be free for teens across the state to visit.
Why the U of M spent $23 million on health care consultants
The expenditures date to the ill-fated Fairview-Sanford merger. More than half the spending came after the July 2024 arrival of the new president, Dr. Rebecca Cunningham.
Maximum-security KY prison neared riot over guard planting contraband on inmates
Investigators say an officer who “discovered” contraband secretly planted it.
Asian shares mostly rise after Wall Street rallies on lower oil prices
Asian shares are mostly rising, echoing the rally on Wall Street that came as oil prices eased on hopes the United States and Iran may try again on talks to end their war.
JJ Wetherholt Homers Twice as Cardinals Rally to Beat Guardians
Tuesday night’s game at Busch Stadium was a parade of solo home runs for both the St. Louis Cardinals and the Cleveland Guardians. JJ Wetherholt homered twice and made some epic plays in the field as the Cardinals showed their come-from-behind heart yet again to walk off the Guardians in extra innings. Michael McGreevy gave […]
NBA play-in tournament scores, live updates: Hornets beat Heat in OT; Trail Blazers-Suns to decide West's No. 7 seed
Golden Demon 2026 – AdeptiCon finalists part two
Take a look at the work of the other talented painters who earned a coveted Finalist pin.
In-patient mental health clinic in Chevy Chase neighborhood gets approval despite public outcry
The decision was met with boos of frustration at the meeting, with some opponents shouting, "See you in court."
NBA play-in tournament scores, live updates: Heat-Hornets kick off Tuesday slate; Trail Blazers-Suns to decide West's No. 7 seed
Virginia Tech lands a commitment from DL Xavier Perkins
Xavier Perkins trusted the feeling — and it led him to Blacksburg. The versatile defensive lineman out of Durham (N.C.) Jordan has committed to Virginia Tech, giving the Hokies a key piece in the trenches after a spring filled with visits and momentum shifts. “It came down to that feeling, and I felt it the […]
Planting the Seed: Growing Tomorrow's Health Care Workforce One Field Trip at a Time
In a converted Save-A-Lot in the Binghampton neighborhood of Memphis, schoolchildren pull on white lab coats and more as they get to work.
Redesigned Trump Phone Finally Emerges on Overhauled Trump Mobile Website
Trump Mobile now features a third design of the T1 phone, alongside images and videos of Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr. There's still no release date.
KCS: Law enforcement called after “health concern” at Gibbs High
School officials report ‘health concern’ at campus this morning
Ethics panel clears Life Science Hub board member for paid adviser gig under ‘hardship’ exception
The Rhode Island Ethics Commission unanimously approved a staff recommendation Tuesday allowing Patrice Milos to serve as a paid advisor to the Life Science Hub, despite Milos' recent role on the 15-person, volunteer board for the agency.
Ethics panel clears Life Science Hub board member for paid adviser gig under ‘hardship’ exception
For the second time in less than two years, Patrice Milos is temporarily swapping her volunteer role on the board for the Rhode Island Life Science Hub to take a paid agency position. And again, the s...
Diarrhea-causing infection increasing in US, CDC says
Officials called the increase "a public health threat," especially since shigella is spread easily from person to person.
Survey finds 95% of insured Americans worry about hospital bills
Survey reveals financial strain for many Americans due to healthcare costs, even with insurance. Unexpected medical bills can lead to debt.
UNC basketball under Michael Malone: Insiders reveal transfer portal news, 2026 recruits, roster, best targets
TarHeel247, the 247Sports affiliate of the North Carolina Tar Heels, shares its latest college basketball transfer portal news
Greater Wausau Chamber of Commerce to host annual Business EXPO
The Greater Wausau Chamber of Commerce will host hundreds of exhibitors and thousands of attendees at the organization’s annual Business EXPO on Thursday.
Final tour for Alabama stops in Cedar Rapids
Alabama, a band that marries country with Southern rock, was among the most successful acts of the '80s. Known for hits like "Tennessee River," they will perform on Sunday at the Alliant Energy PowerHouse.
Main Line Health is closing its Women's Emotional Wellness Center in June
The closure will affect about 1,000 patients and two-dozen employees.
Susquehanna Valley 10th graders learn the science behind hot air balloons
The presentation is taught to the kids to help bring their earth science class into the real world.
Wazdakka Gutsmek rules revealed – Launch your own Speedwaaagh!
Lead your Warbikers to the biggest and best fights around.
Opening of Hercules Park spurring growth of business in area
A local park is helping contribute to business growth. Hercules Park opened in March last year, marking the city’s first public park to open in 40 years. Investment in the city’s parks is coinciding with its growth.
The color grading tool used by Hollywood now supports still photos – and it’s free. DaVinci Resolve 21 works with both photos and videos
DaVinci Resolve, a video editor popular for its color tools, now supports still photos to give photographers cinematic color tools – and aid hybrid creators
Hospitality mogul details challenges of expanding business to NYC
The entrepreneur has built a portfolio of high-energy environments.
Games Workshop brings seven classic Warhammer games to Steam for the first time
Fans of miniature plastic soldiers, rejoice. Games Workshop has brought a host of older Warhammer and Warhammer 40K video games to Steam for the first time.
Delta Air Lines rolls out new business class suites in premium push
The updated suites will be introduced on the airlines’ new A350-1000 jets that will enter service in 2027.
More Than 20 Classic Warhammer PC Games Just Hit Steam, Including Shadow of the Horned Rat, Warhammer 40,000: Fire Warrior, and Space Hulk — Check Out the List in Full
More than 20 classic Warhammer PC video games have hit Steam as part of a new Warhammer Classics initiative. Check out the list in full.
Palmetto Sports & Entertainment to air record number of Myrtle Beach Pelicans games this season
There’s even more reason to be excited about the Myrtle Beach Pelicans’ new season.
Alice Cooper returns to Eastern Iowa
The Godfather of Shock Rock performs April 18 at Alliant Energy PowerHouse in Cedar Rapids.
Iran war has some US water utilities facing a fluoride shortage
Some U.S. water utilities are reporting that the Middle East war is disrupting their ability to maintain recommended fluoride levels in the drinking water.
Kierra M talks the latest in entertainment headlines
Britney Spears checks herself into rehab 5 Weeks after DUI arrest
Sustainability At ESMT Berlin: Bees & Business Lessons
ESMT Berlin is a place to find both future business leaders and bees. A strange combination, perhaps, but one that encapsulates sustainability at ESMT. Here, faculty prepare students to become chang...
'Metro 2039' confirmed for "Xbox First Look" show: New format will spotlight games throughout the year.
Xbox's showcase production team has been on a big tear this year, and another new format is on the horizon: starting with the return of Metro.
The Strokes line up band's first area headlining show in 20 years
Tickets for the band's June concert go on sale Friday.
Philippine President Marcos debunks health rumors with jumping jacks
Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has dismissed rumors about his health by doing jumping jacks and jogging outside his office.
Bayern Munich exec condemns treatment of fans in Madrid
Were FC Bayern fans victimized in Madrid?
Director Na Hong-jin's upcoming film 'Hope' to be distributed by U.S. indie powerhouse NEON
Director Na Hong-jin's upcoming film “Hope” will be distributed in North America by the U.S. indie powerhouse distributor NEON, the movie’s co-producer, Plus M Entertainment, said on Monday.
Warhammer Classics brings legendary games back to your PC
Shadow of the Horned Rat, Chaos Gate, Dark Omen, Fire Warrior and more have returned.
Bruce Springsteen's former drummer pushes back on the Boss's political attacks on Trump: 'Gotta have respect'
Bruce Springsteen's former drummer Vini Lopez speaks out against the Boss's anti-Trump rhetoric, saying everyone should respect the president.
GameThread: Tigers vs. Marlins, 1:40 p.m.
Detroit Tigers (6-9) vs. Miami Marlins (8-7) Time/Place: 1:40 p.m., Comerica ParkOpponent Site: Fish On FirstMedia: Detroit SportsNet, MLB.TV, Tigers Radio NetworkPitching Matchup: LHP Tarik Skubal (1-2, 2.55 ERA) vs. RHP Sandy Alcantara (2-0, 0.74 ERA) Lineups MARLINS TIGERS Austin Slater – RF Kevin McGonigle – SS Agustin Ramirez – C Gleyber Torres – 2B Jakob Marsee – CF Colt Keith […]
All Things Detroit Day draws shoppers, celebrates small businesses at Eastern Market
The Sheds at Eastern Market were buzzing Sunday as shoppers poured in for All Things Detroit Day, an annual celebration of local small businesses featuring more than 100 vendors offering everything from apparel to food.
UNC basketball under Michael Malone: Insiders reveal transfer portal news, 2026 recruits, roster, best targets
TarHeel247, the 247Sports affiliate of the North Carolina Tar Heels, shares its latest college basketball transfer portal news
Broussard: LeBron James runs Lakers' offense better than Luka Doncic
Chris Broussard of Fox Sports 1 feels that as great as Luka Doncic has spearheaded the Lakers' offense, LeBron James may be even better in that area.
Early data promising on RI's evolving behavioral health model
Rhode Island's certified community behavioral health clinics are showing promising results, increasing access and improving outcomes, the author says.
Pulling Reports, Playing Politics
The CIA’s retraction of intelligence reports should raise concerns about politicization and the Trump administration’s embrace of white supremacist rhetoric.
Why Bill Moos is fed up with major college sports
Bill Moos, former player, coach and athletic director of some of the country’s past and present powerhouses, has seen the future of college athletics and is glad he retired to 63 acres near Spokane.
High school sports don't stop for the weekend. Here's what happened Saturday
The high school sports schedule doesn't take a weekend off. We've got the stories, scores and more from all of the games in Rhode Island played on Saturday, April 11, 2026.
Gary Jackson featured at FMU School of Business for annual Common Author Colloquium
More than 60 students, faculty and community members gathered at Harris Auditorium Thursday for the annual Common Author Colloquium featuring author Gary Jackson, who discussed his new book “Small Lives: Poems,” which reimagines superheroes with new themes. The event, hosted by Shawn Smolen-Morton, chair of Francis Marion University’s Department of Modern Languages and professor of...
Billy Donovan, perhaps coaching Bulls for last time, faces Mavericks
Chicago's season-ending road clash with the Dallas Mavericks on Sunday will be Bulls coach Billy Donovan's 482nd regular-season game on the bench.
'DWTS' alum Hayley Erbert says her heart is 'breaking into a million pieces' after having first baby with Derek Hough
'DWTS' alum Hayley Erbert says her heart is 'breaking into a million pieces' after having her first baby with Derek Hough two years after a life-threatening health scare: 'Motherhood is even more complex and contradicting than I could have ever imagined.'
Masters 2026: Scottie Scheffler gets spicy after Round 3 at Augusta
Scheffler fired a 7-under 65 to get himself back in contention, but wasn't thrilled with some questions after his round.
Rhode Island Marijuana Business License Lottery Blocked By Federal Judge Amid Challenge To Residency Rules
“Knowing the Act was facing legal challenges…CCC continued forward with its plan to implement the Act and its licensing scheme. The resulting fall-out will be, to be blunt, self-inflicted.” By Christopher Shea, Rhode Island Currant Nearly 100 applicants vying for 20 new cannabis retail licenses that were supposed to be awarded via lottery as soon […]
Steelers trade proposal sends Nick Herbig to NFC powerhouse
Could the Steelers send Herbig out of Pittsburgh?
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
Atlético Madrid ‘astounded’ by Barcelona’s refereeing complaints
The fallout from Barcelona’s defeat to Atletico Madrid continues to intensify, with the Madrid-based club now responding to the actions taken by Barcelona following the controversial encounter.After...
Engadget review recap: ASUS ZenBook A16, AirPods Max 2, Sonos Play and LG Sound Suite
A roundup of the latest reviews from Engadget.
Major Wolverhampton genetics study targets community health gaps
A study invites Pakistani and Bangladeshi residents in Wolverhampton to help improve health care.
Burglars ransack 5 businesses across 4 Chicago neighborhoods within 3 hours, police say
Police issued a warning about business burglaries on Chicago's South and Southwest sides.
Edwardsville IL Vietnam veteran reflects on war, business
Ron Eberhart reflects on his time serving in Vietnam and his lifetime in Edwardsville.
I found the ‘memory cheat code’ for ChatGPT — and it fixed my worst problem with AI
One simple prompt stopped ChatGPT from “forgetting” everything mid-conversation — and it completely changed how I use it
Anthropic Mythos cybersecurity concerns: What smart people are saying
Anthropic's Mythos AI model sparked cybersecurity concerns, but some think it's been overhyped. Here's what smart people re saying.
How OpenAI's reported ad plans could change the AI business model
OpenAI (OPAI.PVT) is reportedly projecting $100 billion in advertising revenue by 2030. Yahoo Finance Technology Editor Dan Howley explains how this could shift the artificial intelligence (AI) business model.
Spring Mountain Treatment Center launches program to support moms’ mental health
Pregnancy and the early years of motherhood can be an emotional time, but for some women it can also bring serious mental health challenges. Spring Mountain Tre
Sunset Buzz: In a world of AI, Jay Pham says, consider an Irish sports bar
The Four Deuces, 2319 Taraval Street, has anchored the neighborhood for decades. The latest chapter comes with a change in ownership.
How Political Differences Can Affect Golf Players Concentration on the Links and Beyond
A new study suggests political differences among golfers can affect concentration on the links—and perhaps in the workplace as well.
URI’s Biomechanics Day event exposes younger students to high-tech science, promotes STEM fields
KINGSTON, R.I. — April 10, 2026 — High school and middle school students from around the state got a hands-on experience with the high-tech equipment used by the University of Rhode Island College of Health Sciences during URI’s annual celebration of National Biomechanics Day in Mackal Field House on April 8. More than 500 students […]