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The Miami-Dade businesses that lost their licenses over alleged illegal trade with Cuba
Miami-Dade County Tax Collector Dariel Fernández announced new enforcement actions that include revoking business licenses for several companies accused of operating in violation of federal regulations related to Cuba.
City and Olympic boss joust over who gets big Games contracts
Your morning catch-up: L.A. officials want more business from 2028 Olympic committee, another woman accused Swalwell of assault and more big stories
Health of US democracy in decline, based on multiple evaluations
Most Americans say democracy in the United States used to be a good example for other countries to follow but has not been in recent years.
Kennesaw State to launch Ph.D. in Biomedical Sciences in Fall 2027
Building on its leadership in scientific research and education, Kennesaw State University on Wednesday received approval from the Board of Regents of the University System of Georgia to launch a new Ph.D. in Biomedical Sciences. The program will begin in Fall 2027 on the Kennesaw Campus. Housed in the College of Science and Mathematics, the degree will help meet the increasing demand in Georgia and the nation for research scientists in biology, chemistry, biochemistry, and ecology.
ETSU Health receives $2.4M grant to expand care for unhoused communities
ETSU Health Family Medicine’s new street medicine program brings care directly to people experiencing homelessness while training resident physicians.
Osara Health Publishes New Peer-Reviewed Study Demonstrating Clinically Meaningful Improvements in Physical and Mental Health for People With Cancer
/PRNewswire/ -- Osara Health, a global digital health company focused on the human experience of cancer care, today announced a new peer-reviewed study showing...
UChicago paleontologist announces plans for Washington Park science center focused on teen education
The more than 45,000-square-foot center planned for the Washington Park neighborhood will be free for teens across the state to visit.
Atelerix Forms Strategic Partnership With JH Health Ltd to Expand Non-Cryogenic Cell Preservation Capabilities in the Middle East
NEWCASTLE, England, April 15, 2026--Atelerix, a biotech company revolutionising cell preservation and biological transport with its pioneering hydrogel encapsulation technology, today announced it has established a strategic partnership with JH Health Ltd, a Saudi Arabian company focused on medical and health-related technology. The partnership grants JH Health exclusive rights to use and distribute Atelerix’s hydrogel-based cell and tissue preservation solutions in the Middle East, significantl
Why are many Americans turning to AI for health advice
A Gallup poll found that roughly one-quarter of U.S. adults had used an AI tool for health information or advice in the past 30 days.
Sexual abuse allegations are spurring calls for a broader reckoning in Congress
Resignations came quickly this week from two congressmen accused of sexual misconduct toward staff members | WWJ Newsradio 950
Sexual abuse allegations are spurring calls for a broader reckoning in Congress
Resignations came quickly this week from two congressmen accused of sexual misconduct toward staff members | KNSS Radio
Sexual abuse allegations are spurring calls for a broader reckoning in Congress
Resignations came quickly this week from two congressmen accused of sexual misconduct toward staff members | KMBZ
Polls show why many Americans are turning to AI for health advice
Many Americans are turning to artificial intelligence tools such as ChatGPT for health advice. A Gallup poll out Wednesday found that about 1 in 4 U.S. adults had used AI for health information in the past month.
As Vance rallies with Turning Point, some supporters bristle at Trump's war, memes and feuds
Vice President JD Vance used a Turning Point USA event to defend President Donald Trump’s aggression in Iran and downplay the resulting tensions between Washington and the Vatican | WBEN
Callaway Plaza business owners ask for City of Holts Summit's help
According to previous reporting, the odor has caused a decrease in sales for at least one business.
Attorney says suspect in attack on OpenAI CEO's home was in midst of 'mental health crisis'
The man accused of trying to kill OpenAI CEO Sam Altman by throwing a Molotov cocktail at his San Francisco home was experiencing a mental health crisis and has been overcharged by prosecutors, his public defender said Tuesday.
Another US strike on suspected drug boat in the eastern Pacific kills 4
The U.S. military has launched a strike on another boat accused of carrying drugs in the eastern Pacific Ocean, killing four people | 830 WCCO
This simple change stops robot swarms from getting stuck
In crowded environments, more robots don’t always mean faster results—in fact, too many can bring everything to a standstill. Harvard researchers discovered a surprising fix: adding a bit of randomness to how robots move can actually prevent gridlock and boost efficiency. By allowing robots to “wiggle” slightly instead of marching in straight lines, they can slip past each other and keep tasks flowing smoothly.
Wynwood business district employee accused of corruption
The former interim director of the Wynwood Business Improvement District is facing more than two dozen counts of grand theft and a charge of organized fraud.
Police: Woman used crowbar to steal checks from Upstate business
Clemson police say a woman was arrested after checks were stolen from a local business drop box in an early morning break-in.
Sports Illustrated, Shaq opening a sports fan-focused leisure resort in downtown Baton Rouge
SI announced plans to bring immersive sports hospitality, premium lodging, and year-round fan experiences
How Canada’s Carney Used His Political Savvy to Win a Majority
In six months, the prime minister orchestrated the defection of five lawmakers to his side and won a special election.
Someone planted backdoors in dozens of WordPress plugins used in thousands of websites
Dozens of WordPress plugins were allegedly hijacked to push malware after they were sold to a new corporate owner.
Man fatally stabbed in New Cross after business deal 'went sour'
Ayowale Aladejana was killed after the couple accused of his murder drove to his home, a court hears.
Saks Sells Business Jet as Luxury Retailer Shrinks in Bankruptcy
Saks Global Enterprises won court approval to sell its Gulfstream jet that executives used for business and personal travel, as the bankrupt luxury retailer slashes debt and operating expenses.
Apple Launches New All-in-One Apple Business Platform for Device Management, Email, and Customer...
Apple today launched its new all-in-one Apple Business platform, debuting the refreshed Apple Business web portal and accompanying app. Apple Business aggregates several of Apple's prior business-focused products, like Apple Business Essentials, Apple Business Manager, and Apple Business Connect. The service offers organizations a unified platform for managing devices, employees, communications, and customer engagement across the Apple ecosystem.
House Republicans Step Up Scrutiny of ActBlue Over Foreign Donations
Three Republican-led committees, responding to a New York Times report this month, accused the Democratic fund-raising organization of withholding documents from a subpoena request.
Ex-interim executive director of Wynwood Business Improvement District accused of theft
The former interim director of the Wynwood Business Improvement District is facing theft charges, authorities said.
Ecuador and Saudi Arabia Will Face Off at Sports Illustrated Stadium in May During Final Preparations for the World Cup
MIAMI, FL (April 10, 2026) - Utilizing the last FIFA match window prior to the World Cup, Ecuador and Saudi Arabia will face off at Sports Illustrated Stadium in Harrison, NJ on May 30th at 7:30 pm (ET). Both teams are laser focused on getting out of the Group Stage
Health expert explains preparing teens with autism for adulthood amid limited adult services
April is Autism Awareness Month, and on Tuesday, we focused on what comes next as your child grows into adulthood.
Lung Cancer Research Foundation Grants Team Science Award Focused on Curing EGFR-Mutant Lung Cancers
/PRNewswire/ -- The Lung Cancer Research Foundation (LCRF) announces the first recipients of its LCRF Team Science Award on Advancing Therapies Toward Curing...
Candy now tastes different. It’s not just you.
From recipe changes to aging taste buds, here's why those peanut butter cups don't hit like they used to.
After contentious debates, Lexington board approves Chevy Chase mental health clinic
The proposed 52-bed clinic from Roaring Brook has been accused by neighbors of being a drug rehab clinic. The company says otherwise.
In the West, businesses can only watch, not stop drone threats
With few options available, businesses and the wealthy in the West are buying drone detectors, a technology used often in Ukraine, to spot threats.
Vance Says Pope Leo Should Stay Out of U.S. Affairs
The vice president, a Catholic, defended President Trump, who had accused the pope of being too liberal and “weak on crime.”The pontiff responded that he had “no fear of the Trump administration.”
Kelly vetoes sports tourism program, allows religious freedom bill to move forward
Gov. Laura Kelly vetoed legislation to create a sports tourism grant program focused on expanding state investment in sporting events.
The color grading tool used by Hollywood now supports still photos – and it’s free. DaVinci Resolve 21 works with both photos and videos
DaVinci Resolve, a video editor popular for its color tools, now supports still photos to give photographers cinematic color tools – and aid hybrid creators
Warner Robins surgeon accused of knowingly buying stolen cars for rental business: prosecutors
Man accused of bloody break-in at St. Lucie County business
A man is accused of breaking into a business and leaving behind a trail of blood on Monday morning.
Building Your Own Major: Helmhold ’27 Connects Sports and Psychology Through Communication
Helmhold created an Interdisciplinary Studies major focused on communication strategies in athletics.
Courageous Leadership and Mental Health Take Center Stage at Women’s Leadership Institute Event
The Women’s Leadership Institute brought its April Career Development Series to the Interform Club at America First Field, gathering women from across Utah for a morning focused on Courageous Leadership and Mental Health. Hosted in partnership with the Larry H. Miller Company, the event explored breaking the stigma surrounding mental
FDA shares warning about cath lab procedure kits due to risk of patient injury
The syringes included in several convenience kits commonly used by interventional cardiologists and interventional radiologists should not be used. If treatment is necessary and no other devices are available, it should be done with “extreme caution and vigilance.”
The AI Revolution in Math Has Arrived
AI is being used to prove new results at a rapid pace. Mathematicians think this is just the beginning.
7 ways AI is advancing healthcare and wellbeing around the world
AI-powered tools are being used to bring greater efficiency and security to healthcare around the world and increase access to medicines and care.
Agamon Health Announces New Automated Chart Prep Capability
/PRNewswire/ -- Agamon Health, an AI-powered healthcare technology company focused on automating operational workflows in oncology, announces commercial...
Mamdani leans into ‘pothole politics’ at 100-day rally, picks East Harlem for first city-run grocery store
Mayor Zohran Mamdani used his 100-day rally Sunday night to argue that the next phase of his first term will be shaped by what he called “pothole politics” —
New Huawei Foldable Looks a Lot Like Apple's Rumored iPhone Fold
Apple's upcoming foldable iPhone is expected to feature a book-style form factor that's relatively uncommon in the foldables market, but Huawei's new Pura X Max appears to share a similar wide aspect ratio. Set to be released in China next week, Huawei's new device actually builds upon a design used by the original, smaller Pura X, which was marketed last year as an extra-wide flip phone.
"I couldn't protect it" Pete Hines says he left Microsoft-owned Bethesda because he didn't want to watch it be "damaged and broken apart and frankly mistreated, abused"
Former Bethesda head of publishing Pete Hines has spoken about the frustrations which led him to retire back in 2023.
Trump Family Deal Spree Could Open Door for Future Presidents to Profit From Office
NEW YORK (AP) — For decades, presidents avoided even the appearance of profiting from their office. Harry Truman refused to lend his name to any business, even in retirement. Richard Nixon so feared a brother might profit off their ties, he had his phone tapped. And George W. Bush dumped his ...
Random: Borderlands 4 Physical Switch 2 Version Apparently Surfaces In The Wild
Development on the Nintendo version was paused
Apple Testing Four Smart Glasses Styles Made of High-End Materials
Apple is developing at least four different styles of smart glasses, and the company is betting that their superior design will set them apart from rival products, according to Bloomberg's Mark Gurman. Writing in his latest Power On newsletter, Gurman says that Apple's latest designs are made from a high-end material called acetate, which is "more durable and luxurious" than the standard plastic used by most existing brands.
U.S. Small Business Administration Offers Relief to Colorado Small Businesses and Private Nonprofits Affected by Drought
The U.S. Small Business Administration announces the availability of low-interest federal disaster loans to offset economic loss caused by drought.
Nish Kumar on racism, technology, and politics in comedy show at McCarter Theatre
Staff writer for The Prospect Annika Plunkett reviews Nish Kumar's politically-focused comedy show at McCarter Theatre.
Liverpool, the Grand National and the rumbling discord around Merseyside’s biggest sporting day
Those in control of the most powerful sporting institutions stand accused of understanding the cost of everything but the value of nothing
❝Anti-rights groups: why we need a smarter politics of naming
As movements working to undermine universal human rights protections become more influential, the language used to call out these “anti-rights” groups also needs closer scrutiny, or else risks being self-defeating, writes Nicolas Agostini, human rights advocate and researcher.
Howden steps up US push with specialty trucking build-out
The company is rolling out a dedicated US Trucking Practice focused on data, safety tech and claims advocacy
Strikes on alleged drug boats kill 5, leave 1 survivor in eastern Pacific, US military says
The U.S. military says it blew up two boats accused of smuggling drugs in the eastern Pacific Ocean | KMBZ
Strikes on alleged drug boats kill 5, leave 1 survivor in eastern Pacific, US military says
The U.S. military says it blew up two boats accused of smuggling drugs in the eastern Pacific Ocean | 830 WCCO
18% of gray whales that enter San Francisco Bay die there, scientists find
The climate crisis seems to be altering gray whales’ access to food, leading them to change their migration paths and forage in San Francisco Bay — a busy shipping area with a narrow bottleneck both whales and boats must cross. Scientists surveying these whales suspect that many don’t survive to leave the bay: of the 114 individuals they identified, only four were seen in more than one year between 2018 and 2025, and 21 were found dead, giving a minimum mortality rate of 18%. Many deaths were caused by vessel strike injuries, while some others are due to starvation.
Politics Unplugged Podcast: Laura Gersony on the SRP election and Turning Point's impact
Arizona Republic reporter Laura Gersony joins us to talk about the SRP election, and why it was a loss for Turning Point USA. Then Dennis and Colin talk about the President’s threat to end a civilization and Melania Trump's Epstein-focused press conference.
At 100 days, Mamdani leans into ‘pothole politics’ and child care push
The mayor focused on child care and worker gains, arguing that basic services are key to rebuilding trust in government.
New Cold Case Task Force spotlights growing role of private forensic labs
The same DNA science being used to bring closure to families in long-unsolved cases is also increasingly being used as a frontline investigative tool.
Byron Donalds to announce industry-focused workforce initiative
The candidate for Governor will announce his LaunchPad plans as part of his 'Defending the Florida Dream' tour.
How Golden Entertainment (GDEN) Narratives Are Shifting As Analysts Recut Targets And Takeover Nears
Golden Entertainment’s fair value estimate has been nudged from US$30.50 to US$30.00 per share, a small adjustment that still keeps the story focused around a US$30 mark. Some analysts view this US$0.50 trim as an incremental shift that reflects updated valuation inputs rather than a major change in the underlying outlook, while more cautious voices see it as a signal of reduced conviction at recent prices. As you read on, you will see how this updated target fits into the evolving analyst...
AIPAC may be a new litmus test for Democratic candidates. Leaders say voters' heads are elsewhere.
Last week's Democratic National Committee meeting illustrated a party trying to stay focused on economic issues while grappling with strong, changing opinions on Israel.
California Democrats Rushed to Back Eric Swalwell — and Quickly Abandoned Him
Representative Eric Swalwell, a Washington figure, was largely unknown in the California State Capitol. But influential groups began backing him for governor in the weeks before he was publicly accused of sexual assault.
Shropshire sports charity's £510k award to get people moving
The funding will be used to support people who "face the greatest barriers to being active".
Hearing aids can seem like a big step. This NYC Ballet principal dancer doesn't regret taking it.
According to the National Institutes of Health, less than a fifth of American adults aged 20 to 69 who could benefit from wearing hearing aids have ever used them.
Charlie Crist's humanity laid bare by, wait for it, the Tampa Bay Times
Crist is shown as something he’s not often been accused of: entirely relatable.
I used Meta's Muse Spark AI to rate my lunch and suggest dinner
Muse Sparks rated my lunch a 7.5 out of 10, told me to watch my sodium intake, and gave me dinner recipes that helped me get rid of leftovers.
TikTok vigilante Daadi Snacks calls out obnoxious influencers
The creator behind the Daadi Snacks TikTok account posts videos criticizing influencer behavior. Some of his targets have not been amused.
FULL SHOW: Inside INdiana Business 4/12/26
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How to Limit The Health Risks Posed by Polluted Air
By Carole Tanzer Miller HealthDay ReporterSUNDAY, April 12, 2026 (HealthDay News) — Air pollution just isn’t what it used to be. While levels of lead and sulfur dioxide have dropped due to environmental regulations, other threats to air quality persist. Particle pollution, ozone and wildfire smoke ...
Vance says US-Iran talks end without deal after 21 hours of negotiations
Vice President JD Vance says U.S.-Iran talks ended without a deal after Iran refused American terms, calling the outcome bad news for Iran more than the United States.
Colorado House finishes work on 2026-27 state budget, finally
The House on Saturday, after four days of work – it usually takes two – finished up their work and voted on the $46.8 billion 2026-27 state budget, as contained in House Bill 1410 and 64 accompanying measures designed to help balance the budget. The delay in getting to the finish line was caused by […]
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
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