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Android 17 Beta 4 rolling out for Pixel as last scheduled release
Google is rolling out Android 17 Beta 4 for Pixel devices three weeks after the last release. This update...
Mamdani releases 2025 tax returns, discloses $1,643 from rap royalties
Mamdani and his wife also got a $7,011 tax refund, including $5,704 from the federal government and $1,307 from New York state.
Second Stone – Galaxies Spring 2026 trailer
Publisher Headup Games and developer Skyward Entertainment have released a new trailer for action RPG Second Stone as part of today’s Galaxies Spring 2026 showcase.
Assassin's Creed: Black Flag Resynced Releases July 9, 2026
The upcoming Assassin's Creed Blaf Flag remake, titled Assassin's Creed: Black Flag Resynced, will release on July 9, 2026.
NFIB small business optimism index falls below 52-year average in March
Small business optimism declined in March as profit trends worsened and uncertainty climbed, according to a survey released Thursday by the National Federation of Independent Business. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell 3.0 points in March to 95.8, dropping below its 52-year average of 98.0 for the first time since April 2025. The NFIB […]
Data highlights gaps in finding in-network mental health coverage
Americans across 43 states enrolled in health plans from the nation’s four largest commercial health insurers face potential disparities in finding in-network coverage for mental health care and substance use disorder treatment relative to physical health care, according to the Mental Health Parity Index released by the Kennedy Forum.
Roman Space Telescope Science Platform Will Open New Frontiers in Space Science
With the release of the cloud-hosted Roman Research Nexus,
Cuba’s prisoner release likely isn’t including political prisoners
Rumour: Red Dead Redemption May Be Getting A Rubbish 'Code-In-A-Box' Release
Out to pasture
Washington State Department of Health Announces 2026 Northwest Radon Poster Contest Winners
For immediate release: April 16, 2026 (26-041) Contact: DOH Communications
NYSUT releases statement on ELT's Science of Reading Program
NYSUT announces continued improvements to its Science of Reading program, reinforcing its commitment to high-quality literacy instruction and educator support across New York.
The Case for Pull Funding at the National Institutes of Health
The White House’s fiscal year 2027 budget proposal, released earlier this month, would cut the National Institutes of Health (NIH) funding by ~$5 billion. This is a meaningful cut, though far smaller than the roughly $18 billion reduction proposed for 2026, which Congress ultimately rejected in favor of a modest increase. Whether Congress holds the line again remains uncertain.
G-Mode: Digital Devil Saga: A’s TEST Server Available Now on Nintendo Switch and Steam
During their 6th anniversary live stream, G-Mode have announced that Digital Devil Saga: A’s TEST Server will be released today
Angry researcher drops second Windows Defender zero-day exploit: “They mopped the floor with me”
A disgruntled researcher released a second zero-day Windows Defender exploit, dubbed RedSun, shortly after Microsoft patched the first vulnerability.
Amazon MGM Studios unveils its ambitious theatrical slate for 2026 and beyond at CinemaCon
The studio’s upcoming lineup includes 13 theatrical releases in 2026 and highly anticipated titles in 2027 like 'The Thomas Crown Affair' and 'Spaceballs: The New One'
How Dangerous Is Anthropic’s New AI Model? Its Chief Science Officer Explains.
Just how fast is the future coming at us, and how worried should we be? Last week, Anthropic announced Claude Mythos, the latest in what has become the leading family of AI models. In a very short time, AI models from Anthropic and other companies have become shockingly powerful at coding. But Mythos stands out because it is not just able to write code that can hack into critical systems, like those that run financial companies, but also to analyze systems and find and string together vulnerabilities in them, allowing Mythos to evade even sophisticated defenses. Anthropic chose to release Mythos to only about 40 leading corporations, so they could analyze the model’s capabilities and prepare countermeasures, in an effort it calls Project Glasswing. The release of Mythos—and the prospect of similarly powerful AIs to follow—has caused tremors at the top levels of Washington and corporate America. Jared Kaplan, co-founder and chief science officer at Anthropic, is at the center of this breakthrough. We sat down with Kaplan so he could walk us through just how powerful Mythos is, what the implications are for issues like our personal privacy, and what comes next. This conversation has been edited for length and clarity. Sean Fischer: For the layman, how is Claude Mythos different—more powerful, more dangerous—from previous models released by Anthropic? Jared Kaplan: I think most people have experienced the fact that our computers get faster and faster over time and over many decades. There’s this very smooth trend where every 18 months, maybe, computer processing power doubles. I think AI is on a trend in which it’s improving maybe 10 times faster than that. A lot of the earliest work that I did in AI was around identifying this scaling trend in AI. Claude Mythos is the latest model from Anthropic, but it’s not different because it’s qualitatively different. It’s really just kind of the culmination of the trend of AI models getting smarter and smarter at all kinds of general capabilities, from reasoning to software engineering to scientific research to knowledge work. For us, it was the first model to demonstrate very elite-level cybersecurity capabilities. It wasn’t because we trained Claude Mythos to focus on cybersecurity, but it was because, as a byproduct of its general intelligence and its general ability with software, it’s particularly good at identifying vulnerabilities in software and how to exploit them.
Butte County Public Health releases 2025 annual report, spotlights community initatives
Butte County Public Health (BCPH) has released its 2025 annual report, highlighting various programs at the department.
Footage shows moments before death of man Tased by NYPD
New body camera footage in the investigation of the death of Adrian Cevallos has been released.
ENTERTAINMENT: Concerts celebrate freedom; watercolors on display
The River City Men’s Chorus offers a concert it’s titling “FREEDOM!,” which a news release describes as “a choral celebration of the ways we dream of, achieve and exercise our many freedoms,” 3 p.m. Sunday and 7 p.m. Monday and April 23 at St. James United Methodist Church.
NFIB Releases Report Detailing Benefits of Federal 20% Small Business Tax Deduction Becoming Permanent for Massachusetts
Will the benefits of federal relief overcome the high-tax environment created by state and local government in the Commonwealth?
NFIB Releases Report Detailing Benefits of 20% Small Business Tax Deduction Becoming Permanent in New York
NY is projected to gain 71,000 new jobs annually over the next 10 years if the deduction remains in place.
OnePlus Watch 4: New Wear OS smartwatch detailed before global release
A new leak indicates that OnePlus is on the verge of releasing a new high-end smartwatch. Replacing the Watch 3, the OnePlus Watch 4 is expected to arrive running Wear OS with an LTPO AMOLED display.
Cuba: Authorities must now release those detained for political reasons and end repression
Amnesty International warns that recent prisoner releases in Cuba continue to be marked by discretion and a lack of transparency, and demands an end to political repression.
TAX DAY: New Report Highlights Benefits of 20% Small Business Tax Deduction Becoming Permanent in Ohio
The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB), the nation’s leading small business advocacy organization, released a new report outlining the economic benefits and massive tax savings the 20% Small Business Tax Deduction will bring to the 1.1 million small businesses in Ohio now that it has
Pokémon Go Fans Use Government Maps to Hunt Snakes
Pokémon Go fans are wrestling with U.S. government geographic data to find a newly-released creature: Silicobra, the sand snake Pokémon.
http://democrats-energycommerce.house.gov/media/press-releases/pallone-opening-remarks-subcommittee-legislative-hearing-public-health-bills
Energy and Commerce Committee Ranking Member Frank Pallone, Jr. (D-NJ) delivered the following opening remarks at a Health Subcommittee legislative hearing on "Healthier America: Legislative Proposals to Improve Public Health:"
Hades 2's second post-launch update secretly adds a new game mode
Hades 2's second post-launch update, which has been released alongside the PS5 and Xbox ports, has secretly added a new game mode to the game.
NFIB Report Details Benefits of 20% Small Business Tax Deduction Becoming Permanent in California
California Tax Day news release on Small Business Deduction
NFIB Report Details Benefits of 20% Small Business Tax Deduction Becoming Permanent in Washington
Washington Tax Day news release on Small Business Deduction
TAX DAY: Benefits of 20% Small Business Tax Deduction in Iowa
NFIB Releases Report Detailing Benefits of 20% Small Business Tax Deduction Becoming Permanent in Iowa
TAX DAY: Benefits of 20% Small Business Tax Deduction in Illinois
NFIB Releases Report Detailing Benefits of 20% Small Business Tax Deduction Becoming Permanent in Illinois
Why 2025 Topps Chrome Football is the most anticipated sports card release of 2026
With buybacks, bounties and even FaceTime chats with Tom Brady, the hype surrounding Topps' return to licensed NFL cards has been massive.
Burning Questions about Adobe Premiere Beta's new dedicated Color Mode by Scott Simmons
Just in time for NAB 2026, Adobe has released into the Premiere Beta what might be one of its biggest feature additions in the history of the application, in a new dedicated Color Mode. Color Mode is a dedicated workspace for color correction and color grading. It’s been designed with everything one needs for color [...]Read More... from Burning Questions about Adobe Premiere Beta’s new dedicated Color Mode
Business owners 'spooked' by oil price surge, national survey shows
A monthly national barometer of small business optimism released by the National Federation of Independent Business shows a dip in March.
HHS Announces $4 Million KidneyX EMPOWER Prize Challenge and Health Technology Project to Advance Living Kidney Donation and Patient-Centered Innovation
HHS launches KidneyX EMPOWER, a $4M national challenge to advance living kidney donation and support patient-centered innovation.
Liverpool FC pays tribute on 37th anniversary of Hillsborough tragedy
On the 37th anniversary of the Hillsborough disaster, players, staff and club officials of Liverpool Football Club have been at Anfield to lay wreaths and pay tribute to the 97 fans who lost their lives. The club will observe a period of silence at 15:06 BST - the time at which Liverpool's FA Cup semi-final against Nottingham Forest was stopped. After the silence, 97 biodegradable balloons will be released from the centre circle at Anfield.
Report: iPad Air to Gain OLED Display Next Year
Apple will bring OLED displays to its iPad Air models next year, according to a new report from Korea's ET News. Citing industry sources, the outlet says Samsung Display will begin mass production of OLED panels around the end of 2026 or January next year, with a view to supplying panels for Apple's next iPad Air, expected to be released in early 2027. Apple last updated the iPad Air in March 2026 with an M4 chip.
Trump phone gets new look, release date still unclear
There's no information on the website about when the phone will be released, and its "Made in the USA" claims have been further watered down.
Google rolls out April Android Canary build with experimental features for Pixel devices
Google has just released the April Android Canary build with new experimental features for Pixel 8 and above.
Nintendo GameCube - Nintendo Classics 1.6.1 update out now
Nintendo GameCube - Nintendo Classics version 1.6.1 update has now been released, and here's a quick breakdown of what it does.
Productivity and Politics
Productivity is normally the dry and esoteric stuff of academic debates. But at present, productivity lies at the root of some of the most contentious political debates. If one reads the newly released Economic Report of the President, one will find that the administration is expecting real gross domestic product (GDP) to grow at an average rate […]
Overwatch launches on Nintendo Switch 2 with performance issues, Blizzard confirms patch in the works
Overwatch just launched on Nintendo Switch 2 today, but things haven’t gone smoothly. Soon after release, players reported issues with the port – notably with performance. Blizzard promised that the new Nintendo Switch 2 version would run up to 60 frames per second. However, some fans thought that the Nintendo Switch 1 version was accidentally uploaded since the action felt...
Apple releases revamped Business app with Apple Vision Pro support
Last month, Apple announced plans to unify its enterprise tools into a free suite called Apple Business. The unified Apple...
Redesigned Trump Phone Finally Emerges on Overhauled Trump Mobile Website
Trump Mobile now features a third design of the T1 phone, alongside images and videos of Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr. There's still no release date.
Apple Releases Second iOS 26.5, iPadOS 26.5, tvOS 26.5 and watchOS 26.5 Public Betas
Apple today provided public beta testers with the second releases of upcoming iOS 26.5, iPadOS 26.5, watchOS 26.5, and tvOS 26.5 updates for testing purposes. The public betas come a day after Apple provided the betas to developers. After signing up for beta testing on Apple's beta site, public beta testers can download the updates using the Software Update section of the Settings app on each device.
WATCH: New trailer, release date announced for \'Hershey\' biopic
In a bit of sweet news — there's a new trailer for the upcoming movie, "Hershey."
Here’s Why JDP Capital Management Exited Its Position in Caesars Entertainment (CZR)
JDP Capital Management, an investment management company, released its “Survivor & Thriver Fund” first-quarter 2026 investor letter. A copy of the letter can be downloaded here. In the first quarter, the fund declined 15.1% net to investors compared to the S&P 500’s -4.3% return. Concerns about AI destruction fears and consumer softness impacted market sentiment in […]
Sony is Removing Many Popular Features From Its Free OTA TV Options Impacting Free ABC, CBS, FOX, & NBC
Sony has notified owners of its recent BRAVIA television models that significant changes to the built-in TV Guide for its OTA TV antenna users and related menu features will take effect starting in late May 2026. The update affects a range of premium sets released between 2023 and 2025, marking another instance of feature adjustments […]
Holland & Knight Health Dose: April 14, 2026 | Insights
President Donald Trump released his budget request for fiscal year (FY) 2027, laying out his vision for how federal funding will be spent over the next year.
Ask the Developer Vol. 21: Tomodachi Life: Living the Dream — Part 3 - News
This article has been translated from the original Japanese content. This interview was conducted before the game was released. In this 21st volume of Ask the Developer, an interview series in which developers convey in their own words Nintendo's th…
Ask the Developer Vol. 21: Tomodachi Life: Living the Dream — Part 1 - News
This article has been translated from the original Japanese content. This interview was conducted before the game was released. In this 21st volume of Ask the Developer, an interview series in which developers convey in their own words Nintendo's th…
SAP Business AI: Release Highlights Q1 2026
In Q1 2026, SAP has a new in the chief AI officer role, but an unchanged mission: helping our customers get real value from AI.
DOJ ‘weaponization’ report accuses Biden administration of biased prosecutions against anti-abortion protesters
The Trump Justice Department released a new report Tuesday accusing the Biden administration of unfairly using a federal law meant to protect access to abortion clinics to go after anti-abortion protesters.
A Look At Caesars Entertainment (CZR) Valuation After Its Mixed Earnings-Driven Share Price Move
Caesars Entertainment (CZR) is back in focus after its latest earnings report, where revenue topped analyst forecasts while adjusted operating income and EPS came in below expectations, yet the share price moved higher. See our latest analysis for Caesars Entertainment. The latest move higher in Caesars Entertainment's share price comes after its earnings release, with the stock showing a 13.54% year to date share price return while the 5 year total shareholder return is still down 69.86%...
Animal Crossing: New Horizons 3.0.2 update out now, special gift available
Animal Crossing: New Horizons just released a version 3.0.2 update, and it includes a special item to celebrate the series' 25th anniversary.
Apple iPhone Fold: Release Date Leaked And Striking Design Revealed In Photos
What will the first folding iPhone look like? How big will it be compared to the current models? The first images claiming to be dummy units have just leaked.
Oregon High School Football: West Linn releases schedule
High school football schedules for the 2026 season are coming out one-by-one out of every state around the country and one that is a breeding ground for college prospects is Oregon, with a number of squads finalizing their fall slates. The top high school football team out of the state of Oregon is the West […]
Ketchup Entertainment Names Qube Wire As Primary Distribution Partner for Expanding Theatrical Slate, Led By Wide Release COYOTE VS. ACME
Ketchup Entertainment has appointed Qube Wire as its primary digital distribution partner across its expanding theatrical slate, led by Coyote vs. Acme, the company’s largest release to date, set for a nationwide wide rollout this summer. The slate will be immediately followed by Rolling Loud, starring Owen Wilson, Matt Rife, and Travis Scott, further cementing […]
Overwatch out on Nintendo Switch 2 tomorrow, up to 60 FPS and more
We have an update on Overwatch (previously known as Overwatch 2), as Blizzard just confirmed the release date for the Nintendo Switch 2 version. As it turns out, it’ll be out tomorrow. One of the highlights of Overwatch on Nintendo Switch 2 is support for up to 60 frames per second for both docked and handheld play. Blizzard says the...
Eliot Wolf: "Business as usual" for Mike Vrabel in Patriots draft preparations
Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel was not present for the team's pre-draft press conference on Monday, which means that he didn't have to field any questions about the release of photos that have created questions about his relationship with The Athletic's NFL reporter Dianna Russini.
'The Winds of Winter' release leak is false, George R. R. Martin's publisher says
That 'Winds of Winter' leak is 'false,' George R. R. Martin's publisher tells EW.
Apple Seeds Second iOS 26.5 and iPadOS 26.5 Betas to Developers
Apple today seeded the second betas of upcoming iOS 26.5 and iPadOS 26.5 updates to developers for testing purposes, with the software coming two weeks after Apple released updated first betas. Registered developers can download the betas from the Settings app on the iPhone or iPad by going to the General section and selecting Software Update. iOS 26.5 and iPadOS 26.5 do not include new Siri capabilities, suggesting any Siri updates are being held until iOS 27.
Apple releases iOS 26.5 beta 2 for iPhone
Apple has released the second iOS 26.5 beta for developers. iOS 26.5 beta 2 follows two versions of the first...
HHS’ Office for Civil Rights Secures Provider Compliance with Disability Rights Laws
HHS’ Office for Civil Rights Secures Provider Compliance with Disability Rights Laws
Secrets of Strixhaven MTG Arena Event Schedule
Prepare for the release of Magic's latest set on MTG Arena! Check out all the events ahead of the set's digital release on April 21.
Hacker group threatens to release Grand Theft Auto VI data in Rockstar Games attack
The group named ShinyHunters have accessed a third party server and have given the company a deadline of 14 April to enter ransom negotiations
New ultra-premium foldable released internationally with big launch discounts
Motorola has now started selling its first book-style foldable. Available internationally, the Razr Fold undercuts the Galaxy Z Fold7 and the Pixel 10 Pro Fold with a massive launch discount and several wearable accessories thrown in for good measure.
Fable still coming out this autumn, despite reports that developer Playground Games is "worried" about Grand Theft Auto 6
Fable is still slated to release this autumn, despite recent delay rumours suggesting it could slip into 2027.
New Huawei Foldable Looks a Lot Like Apple's Rumored iPhone Fold
Apple's upcoming foldable iPhone is expected to feature a book-style form factor that's relatively uncommon in the foldables market, but Huawei's new Pura X Max appears to share a similar wide aspect ratio. Set to be released in China next week, Huawei's new device actually builds upon a design used by the original, smaller Pura X, which was marketed last year as an extra-wide flip phone.
GTA 6 Hackers Say Stolen Data "Will be Published as Their Demands Had Not Been Met"
Hackers have said they will publish data obtained from GTA 6 developer Rockstar Games online because their demands have not been met.
OpenAI is pivoting to…socialism?
The AI company just released a set of oddly left-wing — and wildly hypocritical — policy ideas.
Sand, science and strategy: Strengthening the shores of Presque Isle
The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Buffalo District, has just released a very interesting video named ‘Sand, science and strategy: Strengthening the Shores of Presque Isle’. This video shows how the Buffalo District – using modern technology and hands-on expertise – fights erosion and protects the coastline of Presque Isle for the future: This content […]
He recorded 10,000 concerts on tape, now they’re streaming for free
The music collection of a 59-year-old Chicago man who attended more than 10,000 concerts and recorded each one on cassette tape is slowly being digitized and released online for free. Like many Gen…
Linux 7.0 Released With New Hardware Support, Optimizations & Self-Healing XFS
As expected the stable Linux 7.0 kernel was just released today in marking this next kernel release
Get a Pokémon TCG: <em>Mega Evolution—Chaos Rising</em> Build & Battle Box Early
Open booster packs from a Mega Evolution—Chaos Rising Build & Battle Box at a Prerelease event near you.
An Evening with Kip Moore
Live Interview + Special Performance in celebration of Moore's album release "Reason to Believe".
Report Suggests Potential Detroit Lions Schedule Release Dates
The Detroit Lions 2026 NFL schedule release date is coming in mid-May. Here’s what we know and who the Lions will face.
Apple reportedly testing out four different styles for its smart glasses that will rival Meta Ray-Bans
Apple's smart glasses could be announced as early as this year, followed by a product release in 2027.
Polls close in high-stakes Hungarian election as Magyar seeks to oust Orbán
Polls closed with a record-high turnout in Hungary’s crucial general election, with a freshly released survey suggesting Péter Magyar’s insurgent opposition is set to beat...
Samsung to fix Adaptive Clock glitch in One UI 8.5 update
Adaptive Clock has a glitch on One UI 8.5 devices, and Samsung is working on a fix. The problem has been acknowledged by a community moderator, who promised the addressal with the next Beta software update. It’s already a big day for Samsung users, thanks to One UI 8.5 rollouts. Whether it’s new Beta releases […]
Arc Raiders Launches Map Conditions tracker - here's what the tracker tells us
Embark Studios has released a new tracker to help players monitor map conditions across Arc Raiders.
Apple iPhone Fold: Release Date Leaked And Striking Design Revealed In Photos
What will the first folding iPhone look like? How big will it be compared to the current models? The first images claiming to be dummy units have just leaked.
Cuba leader says island will ‘resist’ U.S. threats, refuses to release political prisoners
“I have no fear. I am willing to give my life for the revolution.”
In a surprise move, Capcom now lets you buy the original Resident Evil games
Capcom recently re-released the original three Resident Evil games on Steam, and hopefully, it isn't a fluke.
Nintendo's Animated Films Challenge Disney's Box Office Dominance
Nintendo's expansion into theatrical animation, with billion-dollar films and an annual release slate, is challenging Disney's dominance while strategically promoting its gaming hardware and franchises like the successful Switch 2.
One UI 8.5 rollout possibly delayed for these two reasons
With the 9th beta, Samsung has delayed the One UI 8.5 rollout for the Galaxy S25 series, and these two reasons could be responsible for this move. It’s expected that the 9th beta may not be the final, and we may have a 10th coming soon. These test firmwares may be released in April, and […]
Lakers release injury report for Sunday's game versus Jazz
The Lakers have released their injury report for their regular-season finale on Sunday versus the Jazz.
Iowa romance author Denise Williams loves happy endings
Her first book, “How to Fail at Flirting,” was published in 2020. Since then she’s written 10 more. All of them have been in the romance genre, including her most recent release, “The Re-Do List.”
Epic set to release Arc Raiders-like extraction shooter with Disney characters by the end of the year
Epic Games will allegedly release an Arc Raiders-like shooter later this year.
New to The Street to Broadcast on Fox Business on Monday, April 13, Featuring Virtuix Holdings...
The show will air as sponsored programming nationwide at 10:30 PM PST on Fox Business Network
New to The Street to Broadcast on Fox Business on Monday, April 13, Featuring Virtuix Holdings...
The show will air as sponsored programming nationwide at 10:30 PM PST on Fox Business Network
New to The Street to Broadcast on Fox Business on Monday, April 13, Featuring Virtuix Holdings...
The show will air as sponsored programming nationwide at 10:30 PM PST on Fox Business Network
$10,000 bounty on the implementation of rollback netcode for Ultimate Marvel vs. Capcom 3 placed by Maximilian Dood
It's been nearly 15 years since Ultimate Marvel vs. Capcom 3 was released on November 15, 2011. Funnily enough, Ultimate Marvel vs. Capcom 3 was released about nine months after Marvel vs. Capcom 3 (February 15, 2011), which spawned ...
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
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In praise of popular science
As a kid, I was enthusiastically and unreservedly in favor of a manned space program. Our destiny lay in the stars, I figured. Get people out there. We need Star Trek here and now. As I got older, I became rather disenchanted with the idea. Humans are expensive, fragile, and inefficient as space cargo. We could flood the solar system with 100 robotic probes for the price of any single manned mission and get back just as useful data. Besides, it turns out space travel is dangerous. Tusk is a reader-supported publication. To support this work, please become a paid subscriber. Subscribe When it came to the recent Artemis II mission, my cynical side didn’t really see the point. Flying around the Moon and back is literally something we did before I was born, and I once owned a Members Only jacket. Apollo 8 circled the Moon ten times and returned to Earth safely the same month that “Chitty Chitty Bang Bang” was released. What was the point of repeating a feat that far braver people once did with tin foil and slide rules? Yet I’ve surprised myself with how moving I’ve found the Artemis II mission to be. The photos have been stunning. The crew has been professional and engaging. There have been modest but important milestones — the farthest humans have travelled from Earth; the first woman, person of color, and non-American to leave low-Earth orbit; innovations in communication, and more. One thing that really stood out is that this is really NASA at its finest. Not that this is the most important mission they ever pulled off, but they did this in a competent way that celebrated the achievements and kept the crew and the science at the forefront of the project. This wasn’t some billionaire throwing celebrities or cars into orbit as a vanity project — this was a collective effort to send experts in to do a job and come home safely. We don’t see that sort of thing much these days. I’m guessing few people would describe many government agencies as inspiring, but this one counts for me. We’re living through a profoundly anti-science era, in which pathbreaking, lifesaving discoveries like mRNA vaccines are routinely downplayed or even vilified. As I’ve noted previously, this era is something like that of the Red Scare in the 1940s and 50s, in which “egghead” professors were portrayed as out of touch or even hostile to regular Americans. One of the things that helped break that spell was Sputnik — the Soviet communications satellite that demonstrated that the United States was falling behind in crucial scientific research and applications. Its launch triggered a new appreciation for American science and goaded the federal government into supporting research universities and labs. I’m not saying that Artemis is the equivalent of Sputnik, but it potentially reminds people that there’s some value to scientific endeavors and the human faces attached to them. Despite my love for the show “For All Mankind,” I’m far from convinced that there’s any real value to putting colonies on the Moon or Mars that would justify the capital investment and the massive health risks to the astronauts. But sending scientific good will ambassadors on a trip into space once in a while? Bring it. Share
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