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Democrats reshape their primary calendar: From the Politics Desk
Plus, 100 days out from the midterms, Republicans feel the pressure on the Iran war.
State canvassers finds Michigan’s ‘Money out of Politics’ effort has sufficient valid signatures
Valid signatures for the Michiganders for Money Out Of Politics ballot petition were determined to be sufficient on Friday after a close call by the Board of State Canvassers. However, the board must still determine if the wording of the proposed petition meets legal standards.
WV Superintendent of Schools Launches First AI and Digital Science Framework in the Nation
Charleston, W.Va. - West Virginia Superintendent of Schools Michele L. Blatt will share the state’s Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Digital Science Framework with educators during professional development sessions at the Charleston Coliseum and Convention Center, Monday through Wednesday, July 27-29, 2026. The Framework, the first of its kind in the country, outlines an approach for digital science and AI literacy education that equips students with the knowledge, skills and credentials to succeed in this rapidly evolving workforce. It also offers educators a way to increase efficiencies in their work and better personalize learning for students.Earlier this year, Superintendent Blatt appeared before a U.S. House of Representatives Subcommittee to share the state’s strategy on addressing the use of AI while also protecting students, their data and educational integrity. The Framework is the result of years of planning, collaboration and development. Digital science encompasses the evolving fields of computer science, AI literacy, data reasoning, cybersecurity awareness, media literacy and the practical application of digital technologies. The framework equips educators to prepare students with the AI and digital science knowledge and skills needed to thrive in the workforce of the future.The West Virginia AI and Digital Science Framework establishes a statewide structure for sustained success. From policy to educator development and student learning, it defines how the state will implement digital science and AI readiness at scale. It serves two priority goals:Respond to the rapidly changing technology landscapeEstablish best practices as a leader for rural models of AI readiness, workforce development and digital science educationWith three statewide commitments, educators will be equipped with understanding and the tools to support implementation. These commitments are:Student Access - Every student will have access to AI literacy learning experiences and digital science instruction before graduationEducator Capacity - All counties will sustain local AI training capacity through a train-the-trainer modelWorkforce Alignment - Every approved pathway will connect to employer demand, postsecondary alignment, and portable or verified credentialsNext week, the West Virginia Department of Education (WVDE) will launch the framework during three educator and staff development sessions. These sessions include unique opportunities for new county central office hires, the Support, Appreciate, Invest, and Learn (SAIL) Conference, and the West Virginia Middle Schools: Bridging the Future Initiative launch. Each session is designed to meet the needs of K-12 educators, professionals, paraprofessionals, service personnel and others who serve in the education community.West Virginia is a national leader in developing a framework for AI and digital science education. We are determined to elevate our model because it prepares students and educators for the future. Our partners at Prodigy Learning and Microsoft understand this commitment and believe, as do we, that our work has national implications for accessibility and scalability because we are building systems that address learning at all levels that lead to post-graduation success.Michele L. Blatt, State Superintendent of SchoolsAs part of the partnership, Prodigy Learning is providing West Virginia educators, at no additional cost, their in-person and virtual training on all products and the materials required for license renewal.
At Age 26, She Helps People Run Their Businesses With an ‘Incredibly Rewarding’ Side Hustle That Brings In $2,800 a Month
Kayli Robles wanted to build a career on her own terms.
'Apple Upgrade' Program Launching on Tuesday
Apple and Klarna are partnering on a new "Apple Upgrade" leasing program set to launch in the U.S. on Tuesday, July 28, according to Bloomberg's Mark Gurman. The program will allow you to finance most iPhone, iPad, Mac, and Apple Watch models, with a 24-month term for iPhones and Apple Watches and a 36-month term for iPads and Macs.
CSU professor leads national study on extreme event attribution science, connecting climate change to devastating weather
According to the U.S.’s most influential science advisory institution, the relatively young field of extreme event attribution science has advanced immensely. Scientists can determine how much human-caused climate change influenced an individual extreme weather event, such as a specific drought or hurricane.
Colombia Schools, Businesses Urged to Go Remote on Natural Gas Pause
Colombia’s government is urging schools and businesses to operate remotely for several days starting next week as the nation braces for natural gas rationing during planned maintenance of its sole import terminal.
Minnesota man gets two life terms for political killings
Vance Boelter assassinated former Minnesota House Speaker Melissa Hortman and her husband
Intermountain Health Plans to Expand Ownership of Hospitals and Clinic Operations Group in Southeast Idaho
Intermountain Health plans to expand its partnership with physicians in a network of facilities and providers in Southeast Idaho that includes two local hospitals along with 60+ affiliate clinics that employ about 2,300 physicians and caregivers. Plans include transitioning Surgery Partners' ownership interests in the network to In...
Friday Food Insider: South Portland ice cream business goes solar
For Willard Scoops owner David Bass-Clark, the project is part of an effort to build a small business around long-term sustainability.
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The new prime minister will almost certainly have a short political honeymoon. How will he handle his first public meeting with Pope Leo XIV? In terms of symbolism, will he seek a blessing?
Democrats Prepare for Possible Election Clashes With Federal Government
Top officials overseeing state elections and law enforcement are stepping up plans to prepare for what they worry could be interference in the midterms.
Where N.C. political candidates stand on federal data center moratorium
Data centers have become an issue in the upcoming midterm elections, and as the centers rapidly expand around the country, more and more governments are putting temporary bans in place.
Turnover of Senate-confirmed officials in Trump’s second term outpaces all 21st century administrations
More Senate-confirmed officials have left President Donald Trump’s second administration in its first 18 months than they have during the same period in other 21st century administrations, according to a nonpartisan organization’s review of the turnover published Wednesday.
Why creative leadership drives business growth
Ndidi Oteh explains why creativity isn’t just a cultural value—it’s a critical force behind innovation, transformation, and long-term business success.
Top pick Fernando Mendoza reports to Raiders camp, signs contract
Fernando Mendoza and the Raiders agreed to terms on the quarterback’s rookie contract, the team announced Thursday. Here are the details.
Reflecting the Real Faces Behind the Physical Sciences
AIP’s Faces of the Physical Sciences initiative is building a richer visual story of the researchers, educators, and students behind scientific progress. Your images can help preserve that story and determine who gets to be seen.
Former SC governor to challenge Darline Graham for late brother’s Senate seat
Mark Sanford will challenge the late Graham’s sister, Sen. Darline Graham, who was sworn in to serve out the remainder of her brother’s term.
Americans — including many Republicans — are losing faith in capitalism, polling shows
President Donald Trump has indicated that his main strategy for the 2026 midterm elections is to call Democrats “socialists” and even “communists” at every turn. And there is evidence that democratic socialism is gaining somewhat more of a foothold in recent Democratic primaries.
Wilmington announces business and economic development chief
The city of Wilmington announced on Thursday the hiring of Louis Starks as its new business and economic development manager. According to a news release, the role focuses on strengthening Wilmington's business ecosystem, supporting entrepreneurship and advancing strategic economic growth. "In this role, Starks will collaborate with residents, local businesses, community groups, educational institutions and regional partners to promote investment, workforce development, and innovation for businesses of all sizes," the release stated. "He will also help connect small businesses with City procurement opportunities, cultivate public-private partnerships, and lead initiatives that promote long-term economic vitality." Starks has more than 20 years of experience in economic development, urban planning, housing finance, workforce development and public policy, according to the release. Most recently, he served as manager of business development for Oakland County, Michigan, "where he led teams focused on business retention and expansion and financial services for one of the nation's most economically diverse regions. During his tenure, his teams supported billions of dollars in business investment initiatives while helping create thousands of jobs," the release stated. He holds a law degree and master's degree in urban and regional planning from the University of Iowa, as well as a bachelor's degree from Duke University. He is also a Certified Economic Development Professional. Starks is expected to begin his Wilmington position on July 27. “Louis has built his career around helping individuals, organizations and communities reach their full potential,” stated city manager Becky Hawke in the release. “Whether supporting entrepreneurs, managing complex redevelopment projects, or bringing together public and private partners, he has consistently focused on creating opportunity and delivering results. He understands that a strong economy creates opportunities for everyone. By supporting local businesses and fostering innovation, his work will help ensure the benefits of Wilmington’s growth are felt throughout the community, creating jobs, strengthening neighborhoods, and improving quality of life for residents.”
Midterm voting preferences by race and ethnicity, age, and other demographics
This is part of a larger report on Americans and the 2026 midterm elections. Several months ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, Democrats hold a 6 percentage point edge over Republicans among registered voters on the generic ballot for Congress (43% vs. 37%). Two-in-ten voters say they are not sure (14%) or support another candidate […]
As the 2026 Midterms Approach, Economy Is Front and Center
Americans are now almost evenly split over which party they most agree with on economic policies: 37% say the Democrats, while 36% say the GOP.
CNN, Variety expand partnership for entertainment programming
CNN and Variety are expanding their relationship through a long-term partnership covering entertainment programming, live ... Read More
Cambridge Business Park plans submitted
The number of homes to be built on the site will be determined by an "odour zone", papers suggest.
Could increasing omega-3 intake boost recovery and long-term health in elite athletes?
As the Commonwealth Games approach, athletes chasing every extra edge on the track, court or in the pool might not find it in training, but on their dinner plates. In a study published in Sports Medicine—Open, ...
Bank of America and Carolina Panthers Extend Naming Rights for Bank of America Stadium, Reinforcing Long-Term Commitment to Charlotte and the Carolinas
Tepper Sports & Entertainment showcases fan-focused enhancements in new renderings and increases private investment, bringing the total project to more than $1.3 billion
Bank of America and Carolina Panthers Extend Naming Rights for Bank of America Stadium, Reinforcing Long-Term Commitment to Charlotte and the Carolinas
Tepper Sports & Entertainment showcases fan-focused enhancements in new renderings and increases private investment, bringing the total project to more than $1.3 billion
Can a Madison summer camp get teens interested in science careers?
After two decades of hosting a camp, researchers at UW-Madison’s Morgridge Institute are evaluating the program's long-term impact.
Thales Books Strong Orders as Defense, Aerospace Businesses Keep Growing
The aerospace-and-defense company’s sales increased 6.7% in reported terms and 7.8% organically, as demand for military equipment and satellite systems remained high.
Language radiologists use in reports is crucial, new research shows
Indeterminate reports can leave ordering providers with unanswered questions that could potentially delay care, authors of a new paper caution.
Asia's rich swap sponsorships for stakes in sports as dealmaking hits record
Asian wealthy families and fund managers are increasingly moving beyond sponsorships and charity-linked sporting events to invest directly in sports assets, betting that growing audiences and rising media-rights fees will drive longer term returns.
Lions Add 8-Time Pro Bowler in Bold Trade Prediction
The Detroit Lions could trade for Arizona Cardinals star safety Budda Baker, according to Jarrett Bailey of SB Nation. Bailey notes that if the Lions get off to a hot start to the season and the Cardinals start slow, the two sides could agree to terms on a deal. “After dismantling the Cardinals, the Lions […] The post Lions Add 8-Time Pro Bowler in Bold Trade Prediction appeared first on HEAVY.
‘Unacceptable’: San Francisco Officials Question Kaiser’s Approach to AI in Mental Health
In a hearing, therapists decried Kaiser’s proposed contract terms during labor negotiations, which they argued would undermine mental health services. The largest health insurer for city employees said it remains focused on providing timely, high-quality mental health services.
Trump touts children’s investment accounts as he searches for a political win
The president promoted his “Trump accounts” program on a visit to Georgia, hoping to give Republicans an economic message that will connect with voters before the midterms.
Rising healthcare costs are reshaping Ohio's midterm elections
A drop in Obamacare enrollees has raised concerns about healthcare costs.
Democrat Phil Weiser names Jeffco Commissioner Lesley Dahlkemper as his gubernatorial running mate
Colorado Attorney General Phil Weiser, the Democratic nominee for governor, on Wednesday named Jefferson County Commissioner Lesley Dahlkemper to be his lieutenant governor running mate in the general election. Weiser, who is facing Republican nominee Victor Marx for the seat held by term-limited Democratic Gov. Jared Polis, announced his pick at a news conference at […]
Mice on 'godforsaken' frozen volcanoes eat toxic plants to survive conditions 'not remotely compatible with long-term human survival'
Researchers risked their lives to study Andean leaf-eared mice on the inhospitable peaks of the Puna de Atacama volcanoes in Chile.
Retiree Health Costs Spike 7.5% in Latest Estimate From Fidelity
The report excludes daunting long-term care expenses, which can add hundreds of thousands more to lifetime health costs.
Anabi Oil partners with Accel Entertainment to support 600 gaming terminals at Green Valley Grocery stores
Agreement extends Anabi's existing relationship with Accel across its southern Nevada convenience-store portfolio, including the Rebel brand
Strange Milky Way planetary system leaves scientists puzzled
Scientists are documenting a planetary system in the Milky Way galaxy that is so starkly dissimilar to our own solar system that they are struggling to find the proper terminology to describe it.
UMaine-led team selected for inaugural DOE Genesis Mission to advance AI in underground science
Beneath Maine’s salt marshes, an invisible transformation is constantly underway. Water moves through soil and rock. Chemicals react. Tiny microbes living underground help determine whether minerals dissolve or form, how fluids move and whether pollutants break down or spread. Existing computer models used to guide decisions about energy infrastructure and…
Anaheim’s newest district, OCVibe, is cultivating community through art, entertainment
OCVibe plans to debut more than 70 original artworks as part of a long-term commitment to champion publicly accessible art in the Anaheim district and recently unveiled its plan for a public art program that is expected to include one of…
Republicans say they'd welcome Fetterman as GOP eyes bigger Senate majority
John Thune says Republicans would welcome John Fetterman if he leaves the Democratic Party, as the senator's pro-Israel stance isolates him.
Powering America's Genesis Mission: Microsoft's commitment to scientific discovery
Today, we’re excited to share a long-term commitment to the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Genesis Mission, backed by a $60 million investment designed to accelerate AI for science and the breakthroughs it can deliver for the country. This deepened commitment includes Microsoft’s new Scientific Partnership Advancing Research & Knowledge coordination hub and program office, otherwise...
Ken Kollman to succeed David Campbell as Democracy Initiative director in January
As the University of Notre Dame’s Democracy Initiative approaches its fourth year, Inaugural Director David Campbell, the Packey J. Dee Professor of American Democracy, is preparing to transition leadership of the initiative to renowned political scientist Ken Kollman, the Dr. William M. Scholl Professor of Politics in the Department of Political Science and the Keough School of Global Affairs. Kollman began a six-month term as director-designate on July 1 and will formally take over as Democracy Initiative director on Jan. 1.
Messy primaries plague both major political parties, causing chaos and confusion in the midterms
As midterm campaigning heats up, both major political parties face unexpected challenges
Messy primaries plague both major political parties, causing chaos and confusion in the midterms
As midterm campaigning heats up, both major political parties face unexpected challenges.
‘Medical freedom’ takes a back seat in Florida’s midterm fights
Despite numerous pushes from top GOP officials on the libertarian-leaning health efforts, voters have other issues top of mind in 2026.
Airbus Shares Climb on Midterm Profitability Goal
The stock gained more than 7% after the group said it aimed to significantly boost its profitability in the coming years, betting demand will remain strong.
As Maui recovers from devastating fires, a study offers vision for new rural health model
A study of the long-term health impact of the Lahaina wildfires is inspiring a new model for disaster recovery and support.
2nd flood in a week in Gallup damages businesses
GALLUP, N.M. (KRQE) – Residents in Gallup are cleaning up the aftermath left by floods covering entire streets. City leaders said they haven’t seen a storm like this in years. Those waters ha…
House narrowly passes short-term funding bill to avert government shutdown
The vote sends the stopgap, known as a continuing \u200bresolution, to the \u200bSenate.
House passes bill to fund the government until after midterm elections
Senate appropriators are working on a different version of a stopgap bill with the aim of attracting some Democratic support.
The battle for Congress gets a Wall Street-style scoreboard powered by real-money bets
Kalshi's new Midterms Hub combines live prediction markets with polling, fundraising data and historical results to track House, Senate and governor races.
Preparation drives long-term business growth
One of the things I enjoy most about working with New Hampshire business owners is hearing what they’re building toward. Whether it’s growth, succession or greater stability, our conversations are almost always about the future.
Less invasive anesthesia strategies during TAVR linked to a key benefit
Long-term TAVR outcomes were comparable. When tracking 30-day data, however, researchers found that hospital readmission was much less common for patients treated with regional anesthesia or moderate sedation.
Gov. Greg Abbott orders state health agencies to crack down on ‘birth tourism’
Immigration attorneys have expressed concerns the executive order could force health providers to determine the legal status of pregnant women before providing care, potentially endangering their lives and those of their unborn children.
Scoop: Trump's top MAGA advisers gather to plot midterms
Trump's team is sitting on about $530 million and figuring out how, when and where to deploy it.
‘Business as usual is a business of death’: UN adopts road safety pledge over US objection
The UN General Assembly closed its first ever High-level Meeting on road safety on Tuesday by adopting a sweeping new declaration aimed at halving road deaths by 2030 – over the sole objection of the United States.
2 large hospital systems just announced a new partnership in Colorado
Under the proposed affiliation, AdventHealth will take over operations of three Intermountain Health hospitals.
AdventHealth to take over Intermountain hospitals in Wheat Ridge, Brighton and Lafayette
The two health systems put out a news release describing a “joint venture,” but said AdventHealth would be in charge of daily operations at the three Intermountain Health hospitals.
AdventHealth, Intermountain Health plan to form Denver-area joint venture
Nonprofit health systems AdventHealth and Intermountain Health announced plans Tuesday to bring Denver-area hospitals and ambulatory sites under a new, to-be-formed joint venture. | The entity would comprise five AdventHealth hospitals, three Intermountain hospitals and their affiliated sites. It would be managed by AdventHealth, which is also expected to be the joint venture's majority owner.
Will data center backlash decide the midterms?
Democrats, Republicans both divided over AI concerns
AdventHealth, Intermountain Health Plan Partnership to Strengthen Healthcare for Denver Metro Communities
AdventHealth and Intermountain Health plan to unite their Denver-area services to bring more accessible, connected care to the area’s growing communities. The two healthcare systems have signed a letter of intent and anticipate signing a definitive agreement in the coming weeks to form a joint venture that will improve access to high-quality h...
When a SpaceX rocket crashes into the moon, scientists will be watching
On Aug. 5, 2026, an abandoned piece of space junk is predicted to crash into the moon near a spot called Einstein Crater. Astronomers will be watching because the collision and aftermath may be visible ...
A Massive Flow of Rock and Mud Tumbled Down Mount Rainier Centuries Ago. Scientists Pinpointed Its Date to Better Understand the Volcano's Complex Threats
In a recent study, researchers dated a historic lahar called the Electron Mudflow to the summer of 1507, establishing a way to determine when past geologic events around the Puget Sound occurred
The Lean Startup Playbook Forgot Something Important: These 5 Mental Skills Determine Whether Your Idea Survives
A business school professor shares the mental roadblocks that keep people from innovating.
Apple Reportedly Planning to Wind Down 'iPhone Upgrade Program'
After launching a new "Apple Upgrade" program next week, Apple plans to stop accepting new iPhone Upgrade Program sign-ups, according to Bloomberg's Mark Gurman. It remains to be seen if existing iPhone Upgrade Program members will be able to remain enrolled in the program beyond their current terms, or if they will be migrated to the Apple Upgrade program at some point.
COVID-19 Linked to Short-Term Increases in Medicare Health Care Spending
Postacute COVID-19 symptom diagnoses, health care spending, and utilization among Medicare beneficiaries diminish within 3 months of infection.
Lebanon's president will meet with Trump at White House
The goal is to bring long-term calm to Lebanon after a war between Israel and the militant Hezbollah group.
Election live updates: Arizona Governor Hobbs’ GOP challenger on the ballot as voters hit the polls
Follow live coverage as Arizona voters pick their favorite candidates for midterms. Get the latest as primaries underway for governor, House districts, secretary of state and more.
Another East Side flood brings more questions for the city
As Cincinnati dries out, the focus is shifting from cleanup to long-term accountability.
J.J. McCarthy Receives Strong Take Amid Vikings QB Competition
The Minnesota Vikings will use a QB competition between J.J. McCarthy and Kyler Murray to determine their starter for the 2026 NFL season. Nonetheless, even with the competition ongoing, many expect Murray to emerge victorious.Murray is looking to show that he’s still a starting QB despite the Arizona Cardinals cutting ties with him this offseason. […] The post J.J. McCarthy Receives Strong Take Amid Vikings QB Competition appeared first on HEAVY.
Nintendo says it has no legal duty to pass its U.S. tariff refunds on to consumers
Nintendo is asking a court to dismiss a proposed class action suit that was filed this past spring by gamers who say the Mario maker is breaking the law if it doesn’t pass on its U.S. tariff refunds to consumers. Those consumers “received exactly what they bargained and paid for” when buying price-hiked Nintendo goods last year, the company said in a filing on Monday in the case of Hoffert et al v. Nintendo. “Plaintiffs are not entitled to a rebate simply because of intervening legal developments related to tariffs.” Nintendo increased the price of Switch 2 controllers and the original Switch last year, following the imposition of globe-spanning U.S. tariffs (tariffs described by Nintendo’s lawyers on Monday as “sweeping” and “constantly changing”). This past February, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the tariffs were illegal. A month later, Nintendo sued the U.S. government to get a refund. And in April, gamers filed the class action claim against Nintendo in Washington, saying it would be illegally double-dipping if it made money from tariff-hiked sales and then from a refund. The gamers sought relief for anyone in the U.S. who bought price-hiked Nintendo items between February 2025 and February 2026. “The common thread among Plaintiffs’ claims is that it is somehow ‘unfair; that Nintendo has not retroactively adjusted its prices for completed sales in response to the outcome of the tariff litigation,” the company’s lawyers wrote in today’s motion to dismiss. “But that is now how commercial transactions work.
Accel Entertainment expands Nevada c-store gaming footprint
Deal adds some 600 electronic gaming terminals to its Southern Nevada network.
Live Results: Arizona midterm primary elections
Arizona Republicans will choose a nominee in a state primary Tuesday to challenge Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs in November.
UFC Freedom 250 Fails to Knock Out The Ratings
(Welcome to my weekly streaming ratings report, the single best guide to what’s popular in streaming TV and what isn’t. I’m the Entertainment Strategy Guy, a former streaming executive who now analyzes business strategy in the entertainment industry. If you were forwarded this email, please subscribe to get these insights each week.) If UFC fans wanted one image to say, “Hey, Paramount+ is crushing it with their UFC rights deal,” I could provide that image. Here it is: (Reminder: this is my creation of the Nielsen Top 30, since Nielsen doesn’t combine the lists or include sports. I take all three lists and combine them. Some streaming TV shows probably have higher ratings than many of the films on this list.) Look at that! UFC Freedom 250 is number one! It topped the Nielsen “Top 30” list for shows and films that made the top ten the week of 15-June. So if you’re a UFC fan or supporter of Paramount+, that’s the good news for you this week. This program topped the ratings charts for one week. Everything else is bad news, or at least a huge caveat to that story, which I’ll explain today in the first part of this week’s Streaming Ratings Report—for the weeks of 8-June and 15-June—which is a double issue since I’ve been writing on a bunch of topics recently. UFC Freedom 250 is one of the biggest streaming events of the year, and super relevant to Paramount+’s strategy, so it merited its own article. Let’s dive in! (Reminder: The streaming ratings report focuses on the U.S. market and compiles data from Nielsen’s weekly top ten viewership ranks, Luminate’s Top Ten Data, JustWatch and Reelgood interest data, Samba TV household viewership, company datecdotes, Netflix hours viewed data, Google Trends, and IMDb to determine the most popular content. While most data points are current, Nielsen’s data covers the weeks of June 8th to June 21st 2026. You can find a link to my terminology here.) Subscribe Check Out My Interview on UFC 250 at MMA Draw After you read this article, if you want even more thoughts on UFC and Paramount-Skydance/Paramount+, I did a written interview with MMA Draw. They asked me to answer some questions about UFC Freedom 250, and I was happy to chat with them. Find it here: [ The MMA Draw Newsletter Did Paramount really overpay for the UFC? What the data tells us so far If you know the history of American television, you also know that combat sports is often a leading indicator of the future… Read more a day ago · 10 likes · 1 comment · Nate Wilcox and Zach Arnold ](https://www.themmadraw.com/p/did-paramount-really-overpay-for?utm_source=substack&utm_campaign=post_embed&utm_medium=web) I never thought I’d need a combat sports newsletter in my life, but the good folks at MMA Draw publish an excellent one on UFC, MMA, pro wrestling, boxing and more, analyzing both the sports themselves and the politics, economics and antitrust issues that impact them. Check the article and their newsletter out! Paramount+ Has Its Best Sporting Event of All Time…But Was It Worth It? Before we look at the UFC Freedom 250 data in particular, let’s talk about what we can’t say. Namely, let’s start with the lack of comparisons. First off, I’d love to put a chart out comparing this fight to past UFC fights on Paramount+…but we don’t have the data. This is the first time we’ve gotten Nielsen data about a Paramount+ UFC fight. As far as I can tell, Paramount provided data for the first fight, but it was a proprietary datecdote (saying it had “an average minute audience” of 5 million “views”) and then, for two fights, we got the linear viewership numbers when they aired on CBS, but no streaming data. Everything else was crickets. We also can’t compare this fight to other fights/combat sports on streaming, in particular the MMA and boxing, because Netflix also didn’t use Nielsen to track those events, opting for TVision and VideoAmp, respectively. (This isn’t Paramount’s fault, but does still suck.) We also can’t compare to UFC’s fights that used to be on ESPN+, since we don’t have any data for that, plus Disney+ didn’t have marquee fights. The comparisons would not be apples-to-apples. Can we compare to past Pay-Per-View fights? Absolutely not. The comparisons would absolutely NOT be apples-to-apples. That didn’t stop Paramount+, though, who bragged that their UFC events have reached drastically more people than past PPV fights. Duh. Sorry, but I gotta make this point again. A basic tenet of economics is that the cheaper something becomes, the more people consume or buy it. That’s Econ 101. (Sometimes pundits call things “Econ 101” that are actually like Econ 210 or even PhD-level economics, but no, this is really like first or second class basic economics.) Yet I still see one analytics firm consistently say that more people watch films on streaming than PVOD proves streaming which means that the streaming window is more valuable than the PVOD window. No, it’s not! Same thing here. Pay-Per-View events back in the day could be really, really, really expensive! So whole groups of people pitched in to buy them. That increased the perceived value of, say, the Mike Tyson fight. Or a UFC numbered event. So yes, the fact that Paramount+ makes numbered UFC fights essentially “free” if you’re already a Paramount+ member means consumption will go up. Obviously. Same for Netflix and their boxing matches. They’re talking about fights that used to cost consumers, in some cases, $50 in 1996…which is over $100 in today’s dollars. Over 1.6 million people paid that to watch the Tyson-Holyfield fight! Again, streaming is essentially “free”. Or $10 to $20, depending on what streamer we’re talking about and what tier you’re on. No wonder more people are “watching”. (Plus, Nielsen’s out-of-home viewing also helps these numbers.) UFC Freedom 250 Did Well…But I Have A Lot of Worries So what can we compare the fights to? Well, the good news is Nielsen put out that the fight averaged 7.0 million viewers for UFC Freedom 250, which is a solid number for a fight. We also know the length, at roughly 4 and a half hours. (I saw different run times, but this seems to be the consensus considering it started at 8 pm, had a delay and then finished after midnight on the East Coast. If you assume a shorter run time, then yes, the total hours viewed would go down.) That means I have the two numbers needed to add this to my Nielsen database. And then…I can compare this viewership to the NFL: And, uh, not great. But also within striking distance, mainly because the runtime for this event was so long. I’d also add that this event had viewership equal to a regular season NFL game on streaming, but if anything, it was more comparable to an NFL playoff or Super Bowl-esque event. And you can compare viewership to the top football games on broadcast, cable and streaming, and it’s not impressive at all: We can also compare it to other sports that week, including the NBA Finals and start of the World Cup: Again, not great. The NBA generated roughly four times as many average viewers each game for its NBA Finals. The World Cup has similarly big numbers. Also, that’s just a tiny fraction of the 25 most watched sporting events each week. The NBA, NHL and FIFA World Cup had many, many more games racking up hours. We could also compare this to other streaming programs to get an idea of “is this a good investment?” and here is how it ranks compared to other top Paramount+ programs: The worry here? Well, unlike scripted programming, which has rewatchability, older fights/sporting events have very little library value. Very, very few people are rewatching these fights, especially years from now. Paramount has also released datecdotes bragging about their subscriber numbers. Earlier this year, they claimed that the first UFC fight on Paramount+ brought in 1 million subscribers. Then, in their quarterly earnings report, they only ended up with 700K subs. Not great! They claimed they dropped lower-value international subscribers, but that’s why I tend to discount subscriber additions when they’re leaked to the press.1 I expect we may see a bump again for UFC Freedom 250, but I’d caution using subscriber growth so soon after these events to judge the success, since new subs with high churn (see Peacock) aren’t great either. Also, analysts often want to attribute all subscriber growth to their favorite/pet show, and that just doesn’t make sense. The biggest caveat for UFC Freedom 250 and Paramount’s very first UFC marquee event is that these could be high watermarks for the sport. UFC Freedom 250 had an incredible amount of earned media coverage compared to most UFC fights. I mean, it had wall-to-wall national news coverage in the lead up to the event. (The first fight also had a lot of promotion from Paramount since it was first.) Other fights could reach this bar—say the Conor McGregor return to the Octagon—but they’ll be fewer and far between. Was This Deal Worth It? All to ask: is this Paramount deal worth it? In this case, I think the UFC Freedom 250 numbers are more distracting than helpful. This fight did well and compares well to other top sporting events. But we know that the first marquee event was at least a third smaller, if Paramount’s own data is to be believed. And it’s likely the other fights are much, much, much smaller. And then you get to the paycheck that Paramount-Skydance paid. FIFA’s World Cup cost about the same for Fox, but clearly generated multiples more total viewership. (Though it’s only every four years.) The NBA is much more expensive, but until the playoffs, they likely didn’t pay for itself. Even still, Disney, NBCUniversal and Amazon Prime Video likely overpaid. So, in that context, the NBA may be an overpay that makes the UFC look not so bad. But two overpays don’t make an underpay, to paraphrase the old cliché about wrongs and rights. And looking at UFC Freedom 250 as the likely ceiling of MMA on Paramount+, Paramount-Skydance likely paid too much. Share 1 I would love regular reports on subscriber additions by programs, but as is, it’s mostly leaked or rumored in haphazard ways.
Democrats avoid a messy fight in Maine, but uncertainty lingers: From the Politics Desk
Plus, Darline Graham to seek full Senate term in South Carolina.
'I'm in.' Darline Graham says she will run for a full term in Lindsey Graham's Senate seat
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Here are links to the first four articles in our series: the first one summarizing the overall results of our report; the second one analyzed a study co-authored by University of Minnesota academic Larry Jacobs, which was one of the most error-prone of all the research we reviewed in our report; a third article showing an admirable example of two political scientists holding two other political scientists accountable for their flawed, sloppy research; and a fourth article that analyzed seven studies sponsored by New America’s political reform program that deployed flawed methodology based on “simulated” elections instead of real-world elections, which when combined with some basic misunderstandings of RCV, produced odd and misleading results]. In this fifth article in our “Shaky Political Science” series, we examine two flawed studies on the impact of RCV on voter turnout authored by San Francisco State University professor Jason McDaniel. McDaniel’s research in these two papers stands out for its puzzling methodology, inadequate and cherry-picked data, and faulty analyses that not only misunderstands ranked choice voting but reflects a basic misunderstanding of politics in general. The first of the McDaniel studies actually passed through a peer review process and then was subsequently published by the Journal of Urban Affairs, despite its obvious errors. It is perplexing that a jury of peer political scientists did not catch the errors and send it back to McDaniel for a rewrite or outright rejection. This calls into question the credibility of the peer review process itself. The peer review process is supposed to represent the intellectual pinnacle of the profession – a way for academics to certify the quality of each other’s work, and to act as a check against sloppy research. In the case of the McDaniel study, the peer review process failed. Yet his flawed study has been cited dozens of times by other political scientists in their own flawed works — an unvirtuous circle of academic research. Here is the first Jason McDaniel study that we analyzed: “Writing the Rules to Rank the Candidates: Examining the Impact of Instant-Runoff Voting on Racial Group Turnout in San Francisco Mayoral Elections,” by Jason McDaniel, 2016, Journal of Urban Affairs. This study covered San Francisco’s use of ranked choice voting (RCV) in mayoral elections, purporting to show that RCV reduces voter turnout overall, increases voter errors, and has a negative impact on “marginal populations,” i.e. racial minorities, mainly as the result of the alleged complexity of RCV asking voters to rank candidates and having to be familiar with multiple candidates and related dynamics. McDaniel reached these conclusions by examining five San Francisco mayoral elections taking place in odd years (i.e. where there are no federal or state races on the ballot) from 1995 to 2011, comparing three earlier non-RCV races (in 1995, 1999 and 2003) with the later two RCV races (in 2007 and 2011). Only two RCV races were studied, and as McDaniel acknowledged, only the contest in 2011 was “competitive” (that contest in 2007 was the first mayoral election using RCV, and incumbent mayor Gavin Newsom won easily in the first round of counting, earning 74% of first choices and far ahead of the second place candidate who had just 6.3% of first choices). Yet even the allegedly competitive contest in 2011was won by an incumbent with a landslide margin of nearly 20 points. No other elections were studied by McDaniel, even though San Francisco elects 17 other offices besides mayor with RCV, including the 11 seats on the Board of Supervisors (the name for the city council) in even years, and six other citywide offices in odd years. Previous academic research has found that competitive elections can stimulate greater voter involvement and higher turnout. For unexplained reasons, this study ignored at least 34 other RCV races between the years 2004 to 2011, many of which were very competitive and had high voter turnout. Instead, McDaniel’s analysis based its conclusions on data from only a single, marginally-competitive mayor’s race using RCV. These 2007 and 2011 mayoral elections were the only two RCV elections that McDaniel used as the sole basis for his small data set to determine the impact of RCV on voter turnout. Despite having no meaningful data to inform his study, McDaniel nonetheless concluded that RCV lowered turnout when compared to the previous three mayoral non-RCV elections using two-round runoffs. Then, using the same inadequate database of San Francisco elections, McDaniel also found that “Instant-runoff voting is associated with a significant decline in Black voter turnout and White voter turnout…On average, Black voter turnout decreases by 18 points and White voter turnout decreases by 16 points …” But how could he credibly arrive at that conclusion when his study was based on voter turnout in two RCV contests that were not even remotely competitive? Beyond that, McDaniel tacitly admits that the key determining factor driving Black voter turnout was not RCV vs non-RCV elections, but the presence of a viable Black candidate. McDaniel wrote, “Black voter turnout was about 17 percentage points higher for the two elections that featured an African American candidate compared to the three elections that did not” — but one of those three elections did not use RCV. The same dynamic was present for White voter turnout, in which higher turnout was not correlated with RCV vs non-RCV elections, but the presence of a viable White candidate. Beyond that, McDaniel’s voter turnout results, whether correlated with the race of the candidates or RCV vs non-RCV elections, showed no clear patterns. In his Figure 1, he shows low Asian voter turnout in the non-RCV elections in 1999 and 2003 when there was no viable Asian candidate running, but in the 2007 mayoral election using RCV, there is still no viable Asian candidate, yet Asian turnout increases dramatically. For Latinos, voter turnout is virtually the same in 1999 (no viable Latino candidate, non-RCV elections), 2003 (leading Latino candidate, non-RCV elections), 2007 (no viable Latino candidate, RCV elections) and 2011 (leading Latino candidate, RCV elections). Meanwhile White voter turnout increased dramatically from a low in the 2007 mayoral election, in which the leading candidate was a white incumbent, to the 2011 election in which there were no leading white candidates that finished any higher than sixth place with 5.6% of the vote. Clearly other factors were determining voter turnout than either the race of the candidates or RCV vs non-RCV elections. Despite these inconsistent findings, McDaniel boldly marches forth to render conclusions about the impact of RCV on different groups of racial voters, even though his conclusions are not remotely supported by his data. This looks like the worst kind of “data cherry picking” to cover up a puzzling conclusion based on a poor data set involving only two RCV elections, neither of which were remotely competitive. McDaniel’s cherry picking didn’t stop there. In calculating voter turnout for the three non-RCV mayoral elections in 1995, 1999 and 2003, he failed to mention that in each of these years there was a two-round runoff election, with a first round election in November in which no candidate garnered a winning majority of the vote, followed by the decisive runoff in December. So there were two non-RCV elections in each election year. But McDaniel only decided to include one of the two elections in his data set, apparently the December runoff in each year (which had higher turnout in two out of the three mayor’s races, and lower turnout in the third). So he ignored the November 1995 election, the November 1999 election when turnout was only 45 percent, and the November 2003 election when turnout was only 45.7 percent. This is flawed methodology based on blatant cherry picking, since McDaniel simply omitted three elections worth of data that did not fit within his frame. His study should never have made it through a peer review process, and it is an embarrassment to political science that not only was it approved for publication, but it has been uncritically cited by dozens of other political scientists. Share A “study” without wider context or credible data Lacking a data set that included even a single competitive RCV mayoral race, McDaniel declared that RCV lowered voter turnout in 2011, when turnout was 42.5 percent. But he also ignored -- or did not realize -- that voter turnout in mayoral elections during 2011 had sharply declined in all big cities, including far more steeply in nearby Los Angeles and other cities. In fact, San Francisco’s election in 2011 had the second highest turnout of any mayoral election in the nation’s 22 largest cities from 2008-2011. Was 2011 just a particularly low turnout year all across the country, perhaps because the country was still reeling from the aftermath of the housing market collapse in 2008-2010? McDaniel ignored this factor and did not search for alternative explanations beyond his flawed thesis. Furthermore, while McDaniel suggested that RCV leads to more “overvotes” – which is an invalidated ballot in which a voter, in either a non-RCV or RCV race, makes a mistake and selects two candidates for a single choice – he failed to address that in the June 2012 US Senate primary contest, which used the typical “one-choice” plurality method and did not use RCV, there was more than five times as many overvotes in San Francisco and Oakland than in the RCV mayoral elections in those cities. Additionally, turnout had been significantly higher and more representative in RCV elections for the San Francisco Board of Supervisors races -- that McDaniel didn’t even bother to study -- as compared to previous “delayed two-round runoffs” for those offices, often higher by as much as 40% in the RCV races. Perhaps the most surprising irony was that an earlier study co-authored by McDaniel (Overvoting and the Equality of Voice under Instant-Runoff Voting in San Francisco by Francis Neely and Jason McDaniel, 2015, California Journal of Politics and Policy) found that overvotes are often more common in lower-income precincts, but that the pattern of overvoting is similar in both RCV and non-RCV contests. Wrote Neely and McDaniel: “[Overvote] errors appear to be a function of complexity in general and not IRV per se…. the pattern of overvoting is similar in both IRV and non-IRV contests…Even among votes cast in a top-of-the-ticket race like U.S. Senate, overvoting occurs in an uneven fashion” (IRV, or ‘instant runoff voting,’ is another name for ranked choice voting in single-winner contests). So McDaniel not only contradicted his own conclusion in his earlier study with Neely, but the earlier study had been an important corrective for one of the most frequently made mistakes made by anti-RCV political scientists – a continual failure to provide crucial context by pairing a comparative analysis of real world RCV elections with an analysis of real world plurality or other electoral methods. Unfortunately McDaniel’s earlier study does not get cited much by other researchers, and McDaniel did not even cite it in his own flawed study analyzed above. Incredibly, McDaniel cherrypicked McDaniel, even as his flawed study has been cited dozens of times. Despite being a textbook example of poor political “science,” featuring both inadequate as well as cherrypicked data, the shelf life of McDaniel’s study has been extended endlessly by other political scientists and media outlets who have cited it uncritically. Equally troubling, the Journal of Urban Affairs put this paper through its peer review process and published it despite its numerous flaws. McDaniel gets it wrong, Part II Not content with producing one shoddy, confused paper, McDaniel produced another one a few years later, here is the link: Electoral Rules and Voter Turnout in Mayoral Elections: An Analysis of Ranked-Choice Voting by Jason McDaniel. San Francisco State Univ. (McDaniel, 2019). In this paper, McDaniel extended his previous flawed research focused on San Francisco, about voter turnout and voter impact, to multiple RCV cities through the 2018 elections. In his data set he included San Francisco, Minneapolis, St Paul, Oakland, Berkeley, San Leandro and Santa Fe. He then compared their turnout in mayoral elections to non-RCV cities, and to mayoral elections in those cities held before first RCV usage, and concluded “a significant decrease in voter turnout of approximately 3–5 percentage points in RCV cities after the implementation of RCV.” But he replicated many of the same mistakes as his first study presented above. While in this study McDaniel attempted to distinguish between various factors, such as odd year vs. even year elections, competitive races vs. noncompetitive, contests with open seats and other factors, the analysis is superficial and inadequate. He attempts to incorporate so many often-conflicting variables that his conclusions are once again unsupported by the actual data, and ultimately unconvincing (this second study never underwent a peer review process). For example, McDaniel declared that for RCV cities “in elections that are more competitive than average (margin of victory less than 20%), there is no significant RCV effect on voter turnout.” Yet McDaniel is a professor in a city, San Francisco, in which the 2018 special election using RCV to fill a mayoral vacancy was exceedingly close, decided by a margin of only one percentage point, and resulted in the second highest turnout in San Francisco history for a mayoral election. Illustrating the complexity involved in assessing the critical factors in turnout, that special election was held on the same election day as federal and state offices, which tends to boost turnout. Yet more voters participated in that RCV mayoral election than voted on the same day in the non-RCV primary for governor in which former San Francisco mayor Gavin Newsom was running. Even more puzzling, in this study McDaniel inaccurately cited his own previous study from 2015 with Neely. McDaniel wrote, “Neely and McDaniel (2015) examine individual ballot image files within a natural experiment, and find higher rates of ballot errors in RCV elections compared to non-RCV elections” (emphasis added). However, we quoted from that 2015 study several paragraphs above, and in actual fact Neely and McDaniel actually concluded the opposite -- that the pattern of overvoting – which is the most common form of ballot error – is similar in both RCV and non-RCV contests. McDaniel also ignored the fact that in Bay Area RCV elections held in even years – at the same time as federal and state elections, when turnout is highest -- the “undervote” (that is, the dropoff in ballots cast for governor or mayor) has declined, which contradicts his thesis that the act of ranking ballots in RCV elections is too complex and presents a barrier for certain demographics of voters. To his credit, McDaniel actually acknowledged another contradiction in his own paper, which found a negative RCV turnout effect in some odd-year elections but not others, admitting that “may present a challenge to the theory that increased complexity [from RCV] will have a marginal negative effect on voter turnout.” But he tried to wallpaper over that contradiction by blaming it on an unlikely source -- bad election administration. McDaniels wrote, “This would suggest that the negative impact of RCV on voter participation may be alleviated by high quality election administration,” without presenting any data or even anecdotes to support such an unfounded theory. While competent election administration of any election, whether RCV or non-RCV, is crucially important, there is no credible research that supports the far-fetched notion that the quality of election administration has much of an impact on voter turnout in US elections, whether using RCV or otherwise. Upgrade to a $5 subscription The unvirtuous circle of academic research It is puzzling how McDaniel’s first study could have survived the peer review process for the Journal of Urban Affairs. The mistakes in McDaniel’s first study above should have been obvious to anyone with a basic understanding of ranked choice voting as well as elections in general, and elections in San Francisco specifically. It undermines faith in the credibility of the peer review process to think that a jury of peer political scientists did not catch the egregious errors and reject McDaniel’s sloppy research and paper. And it remains a black mark on political science that this thoroughly discredited study has been cited dozens of times by other researchers. Indeed, in our research paper it became apparent that many political scientists cite each other’s flawed research to pad their list of citations and to legitimize their own flawed research, creating an unvirtuous circle of political science. More broadly, McDaniel’s voter turnout studies, like other studies evaluating RCV’s impact on turnout, lacked a recognition that no credible opinion or research can claim that RCV increases voter turnout merely because so many voters are excited to vote for their favorite candidates instead of “lesser evil” candidates without worrying about spoilers. Instead, with respect to turnout, the advantage of RCV has always been that, in most places where it has been used, it has eliminated a pre-November primary or post-November runoff, which usually saw about half the turnout of the November general election. This is especially true during even years when there are state and federal elections on the ballot which substantially drive turnout more than local contests. Any study that does not adequately account for this non-November primary/runoff vs November general election dynamic, or odd year vs even year election factors, is simply not credible. Both of McDaniel’s studies largely failed on those grounds. Steven Hill and Paul Haughey Share Upgrade to a $5 subscription Thanks for reading DemocracySOS…your digital portal for the pro-democracy movement. Subscribe for only $5 per month to receive full benefits and to support our work. Subscribe
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