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“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
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In praise of popular science
As a kid, I was enthusiastically and unreservedly in favor of a manned space program. Our destiny lay in the stars, I figured. Get people out there. We need Star Trek here and now. As I got older, I became rather disenchanted with the idea. Humans are expensive, fragile, and inefficient as space cargo. We could flood the solar system with 100 robotic probes for the price of any single manned mission and get back just as useful data. Besides, it turns out space travel is dangerous. Tusk is a reader-supported publication. To support this work, please become a paid subscriber. Subscribe When it came to the recent Artemis II mission, my cynical side didn’t really see the point. Flying around the Moon and back is literally something we did before I was born, and I once owned a Members Only jacket. Apollo 8 circled the Moon ten times and returned to Earth safely the same month that “Chitty Chitty Bang Bang” was released. What was the point of repeating a feat that far braver people once did with tin foil and slide rules? Yet I’ve surprised myself with how moving I’ve found the Artemis II mission to be. The photos have been stunning. The crew has been professional and engaging. There have been modest but important milestones — the farthest humans have travelled from Earth; the first woman, person of color, and non-American to leave low-Earth orbit; innovations in communication, and more. One thing that really stood out is that this is really NASA at its finest. Not that this is the most important mission they ever pulled off, but they did this in a competent way that celebrated the achievements and kept the crew and the science at the forefront of the project. This wasn’t some billionaire throwing celebrities or cars into orbit as a vanity project — this was a collective effort to send experts in to do a job and come home safely. We don’t see that sort of thing much these days. I’m guessing few people would describe many government agencies as inspiring, but this one counts for me. We’re living through a profoundly anti-science era, in which pathbreaking, lifesaving discoveries like mRNA vaccines are routinely downplayed or even vilified. As I’ve noted previously, this era is something like that of the Red Scare in the 1940s and 50s, in which “egghead” professors were portrayed as out of touch or even hostile to regular Americans. One of the things that helped break that spell was Sputnik — the Soviet communications satellite that demonstrated that the United States was falling behind in crucial scientific research and applications. Its launch triggered a new appreciation for American science and goaded the federal government into supporting research universities and labs. I’m not saying that Artemis is the equivalent of Sputnik, but it potentially reminds people that there’s some value to scientific endeavors and the human faces attached to them. Despite my love for the show “For All Mankind,” I’m far from convinced that there’s any real value to putting colonies on the Moon or Mars that would justify the capital investment and the massive health risks to the astronauts. But sending scientific good will ambassadors on a trip into space once in a while? Bring it. Share
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Vilma Jää Brings herding calls and mocking songs to Met Opera’s production of 'Innocence'
Vilma Jää never expected to play a major role in one of the 21st century’s most acclaimed operas when she enrolled at the Sibelius Academy to study folk music | Talk Radio 1210 WPHT
Vilma Jää Brings herding calls and mocking songs to Met Opera’s production of 'Innocence'
Vilma Jää never expected to play a major role in one of the 21st century’s most acclaimed operas when she enrolled at the Sibelius Academy to study folk music | KYW Newsradio
Vilma Jää Brings herding calls and mocking songs to Met Opera’s production of 'Innocence'
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Nashville Predators, Scripps Sports Create Landmark Multi-Year Media Rights Agreement That Brings Free, Over-the-Air access to Predators Games
Museum of Science Nominated for Two Webby Awards
BOSTON, April 07, 2026--The Museum of Science, Boston has been nominated for two honors in the 30th Annual Webby Awards, recognizing the institution’s leadership in bringing science, technology, and creativity to digital platforms. Hailed as the "Internet’s highest honor," the Webby Awards, presented by the International Academy of Digital Arts and Sciences (IADAS), celebrate excellence on the Internet.
Snohomish County declares measles outbreak over, warns travel could bring new cases
The Snohomish County Health Department has declared an end to the county’s recent measles outbreak, but health officials are warning residents to stay alert as
Dallas County GOP chair's precinct reversal brings turmoil in party
The GOP will vote April 20 on whether to oust West as chair after he broke from the group’s earlier agreement to hold precinct-based voting for this year’s primary and runoff election days.
Chrome is finally getting vertical tabs
Google Chrome's latest update brings vertical tabs and a cleaner Reading Mode to help manage cluttered browsing.
Orioles-Cardinals Trade Brings Relief To An Injured O's Bullpen
The Baltimore Orioles added bullpen depth on Tuesday by acquiring left-hander Nick Raquet from the St. Louis Cardinals in exchange for infielder/outfielder Brayden Smith. According to the Orioles X account, Raquet has not yet reported to the team; Raquet was designated for assignment by the Cardinals on Sunday. On Monday, the Orioles placed left-hander Dietrich Enns on the 15-day injured list with a left foot infection and called up right-hander Brandon Young to start Monday against the Chicago White Sox.
IAM Union Members Gather to Bolster Political Action and Solidarity in Wisconsin
Delegates from the IAM Wisconsin State Council recently gathered in Madison for a three-day meeting, bringing together members from across the state. Discussions underscored regulatory and political challenges impacting collective bargaining, while reaffirming the need for solidarity and proactive engagement to strengthen workers’ rights. Gov. Tony Evers opened the conference with remarks and, joined by
Small Business Expo coming to Bladen County this month
The event brings together entrepreneurs, startups and businesses to network, collaborate and grow.
Pediatric ICU nurse brings clinical insight to global health policy analysis | Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health
Heesu Shin, SM ’26, helped take care of kids at his hospital in South Korea. Now, he’s working to help them on a larger scale through his research.
Together for Health: How the Inter-American Court Brings Science and Knowledge to the Climate Fight - Petrie-Flom Center
In July 2025, the Inter-American Court of Human Rights (IACtHR) issued Advisory Opinion OC-32/25 on the climate emergency, one of the most comprehensive judicial pronouncements on climate change to date.
Together for Health: How the Inter-American Court Brings Science and Knowledge to the Climate Fight - Petrie-Flom Center
In July 2025, the Inter-American Court of Human Rights (IACtHR) issued Advisory Opinion OC-32/25 on the climate emergency, one of the most comprehensive judicial pronouncements on climate change to date.
Aqara W200 launches with Apple’s Adaptive Temperature support
The Aqara W200 brings Matter 1.4, built-in mmWave, and Apple Adaptive Temperature. Here is a closer look at what it means for Apple Home.
Business economics teams advance in statewide competition
Two SUNY Cortland teams won the first round to bring their business startup ideas to the statewide level.
Fernando Mendoza partnership to bring financial education to NFL players
The 2026 NFL draft's likely No. 1 overall pick, Fernando Mendoza, is partnering with U.S. Bank to educate players about business and finance.
Kanye West Breaks Silence Amid U.K. Music Festival Backlash
The rapper said he hopes to "present a show of change, bringing unity, peace, and love through my music" when he performs in London this summer.
World Health Day 2026: Together for Health. Stand with Science. Stand with Refugees.
This World Health Day, USCRI’s Refugee Health Services (RHS) recognizes the vital role of science and the communities that bring it into practice every day.
World Health Day 2026: Together for Health. Stand with Science. Stand with Refugees.
This World Health Day, USCRI’s Refugee Health Services (RHS) recognizes the vital role of science and the communities that bring it into practice every day.
‘Neighbors’ finds entertainment in the mundane
For fans of reality TV, a new series has entered the world of streaming services. “Neighbors,” an American television series, was released on Feb. 13. Directed by Harrison Fishman and Dylan Redford, “Neighbors” aims to bring out the world’s craziness by showcasing real-life conflicts over mundane topics between various neighbors and neighborhoods. At the moment,...
13th annual Tuck Entertainment Easter Egg Hunt brings joy - WNKY News 40 Television
FRANKLIN, Ky. – Hundreds of children and families gathered in Franklin, Kentucky for the 13th annual Easter Egg Hunt by Tuck Entertainment at Lincoln Park. Kids flooded the park and enjoyed the free family event. There were prize giveaways, free haircuts and so much more. However, the main goal was to share the reason for the season, and that’s their...
FTI Consulting Adds Three Leading Mining and Resources Business Improvement Experts
SYDNEY, April 06, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- FTI Consulting, Inc. (NYSE: FCN) today announced the appointments of James Chapman, Steve Dyson and Franz Wentzel as Senior Managing Directors in its Australian Transformation practice, bringing their experience as former global heads of Big Four accounting firm mining practices to help clients realise their full value potential. The appointments of Mr. Chapman, Mr. Dyson and Mr. Wentzel continue the firm’s growth of its Transformation – Mining team, fo
Google has launched a free, offline AI dictation app that will automatically polish your speech.
Google AI Edge Eloquent is a new live AI transcription app that requires no subscription and has no usage limits. When you finish speaking, it will also filter out filler words like “um.” It’s currently only on iOS, but Google plans to bring the app to Android and macOS. [Image: https://platform.theverge.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/google-ai-edge-eloquent-app-store.jpg?quality=90&strip=all]
Businesses in Northern Colorado's Old Town Fort Collins object to proposed paid parking
The City of Fort Collins in Northern Colorado continues to press forward with plans to bring back paid parking to Old Town, even as some residents and business owners object.
How Embed Ushered Family Entertainment Centers Into the Digital Age
Companies such as Embed are working to bring family entertainment centers more in line with current digital expectations.
North Mississippi Allstars to bring ‘modern Mississippi music’ to the Englert
The North Mississippi Allstars are commemorating the 25th anniversary of their debut with their 12th studio album, "Still Shakin.’” The band will perform Sunday, April 12, at the Englert Theatre.
‘Building a better future’: UCLA receives $33 million to address LA’s youth mental health crisis
The Ballmer Group investment will support academic and clinical training that will bring more Bruin practitioners into local communities.
New Research Brings Joint Repair Closer for Millions With Osteoarthritis
DURHAM, N.C. — Osteoarthritis affects more than 32 million Americans, making it one of the leading causes of chronic pain, disability, and loss of mobility in the United States.For many people, treatment options are limited to managing pain with medications or repeated injections, and in severe cases, replacing the joint entirely through surgery.
Sportsball Monday: Giants still uneven, 49ers add WRs, Valkyries prep
We bring you up to speed on your favorite local teams.
A New Era of Sports Broadcasting: Galaxy S26 Ultra Unlocks New Perspectives, Bringing Cameras Inside the A ...
Capturing new angles like never before, Galaxy S26 Ultra’s broadcast-ready capture transforms how skateboarding is filmed, experienced and delivered in real time
Curling embraces WWE and darts in new professional league
Rock League, curling's first professional competition, aims to bring the energy of sports such as wrestling to the rink.
Samsung is finally bringing the Galaxy S26's smartest call feature to older phones
You no longer need to deal with spam calls.