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Former Pence adviser Olivia Troye runs for Congress as a Democrat
Troye, who resigned from the White House in 2020 and became a vocal critic of President Trump, will run in Virginia's redrawn 7th Congressional District, which is Democratic-friendly.
Philippine president dispels rumors of failing health
Philippine president dispels rumors of failing health
Philippine president does jumping jacks to disprove health rumors
President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., 68, said the impromptu workout was meant to ease worries about his health as the Southeast Asian nation struggles with fallout from the Iran war.
Pumas get another solid victory over Mazatlan
Pumas got a 3-1 victory over Mazatlan and now have enough points to qualify to the Liguilla.
Paulo Costa and Josh Hokit trade shots on social media
UFC 327 last Saturday was heavyweight Josh Hokit's coming out party. He garnered attention with his media antics leading up to the event and then put on a performance that won't soon be forgotten. Unranked Hokit faced No. 5 ranked Curtis Blaydes in a main card matchup and was part of what some are ...
Capela Delivers Big Night - And a First Career Three
Clint Capela dominates the glass and scores a season-high, sinking his first-ever three-pointer in a career-defining performance.
Here’s the 2026 Polish Fest entertainment lineup
June 12-14 at Henry Maier Festival Park.
Hollister man charged after business break-in investigation
HALIFAX COUNTY, N.C. — A Hollister man is facing multiple charges following a break-in at a local business earlier this year.According to the Halifax County She
Diabetes testing included in free Healthy Heart Project by Henry Ford Health
It's just a little finger poke, a drop of blood and just like that, you can learn if you're at risk for type 2 diabetes which can be doing slow, subtle damage in your body for years unnoticed.
Trump's Iran war deepens the GOP's midterm challenges: From the Politics Desk
Plus, Trump vs. the pope.
The color grading tool used by Hollywood now supports still photos – and it’s free. DaVinci Resolve 21 works with both photos and videos
DaVinci Resolve, a video editor popular for its color tools, now supports still photos to give photographers cinematic color tools – and aid hybrid creators
From The Sports Desk: Rory’s Repeat
WNBA draft night, league free agency hits overdrive.
Fluoride in drinking water has no effect on IQ or brain function, major study shows
The new research is the first to measure community water fluoridation exposure during childhood in the U.S. and any potential impact on cognition up to age 80.
Australian sprinter Gout Gout breaks under-20 record with blazing 200m time, surpassing legendary Olympian Usain Bolt
Gout Gout is faster than Usain Bolt was at age 18.
Rice Business Plan Competition 2026 winners announced
Another team from the Great Lakes State took home top honors and investments at this year's Rice Business Plan Competition.
Nige and Zia set out plan to send ‘Boriswave’ traitors to the gulag
Farage and sidekick are still sore about how the Tories handled Brexit, although new mates Braverman and Jenrick are forgiven
The Many Faces of STEM
UNLV graduate students host a science workshop at Sunrise Mountain High School, providing an opportunity for kids to explore numerous career pathways.
‘Consider it one more sign of the decline in the democratic experiment’
Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
SBA now offering help for small business owners affected by drought
the Small Business Administration (SBA) is now offering disaster loans for small business owners who've suffered finnancial losses due to drought.
SBA now offering help for small business owners affected by drought
the Small Business Administration (SBA) is now offering disaster loans for small business owners who've suffered financial losses due to drought.
Sperm quality is at its peak in the summer, study finds
Seasonal shifts in behavior — not temperature — may subtly influence sperm motility. Whether this variation in sperm quality influences fertility remains to be seen.
Moving Sioux Falls Forward: The Bancorp Bank
The future of financial services is being built in Sioux Falls, thanks to forward-looking businesses like The Bancorp.
Jumbo Package: Who stood out at A Day?
Your latest Crimson Tide news and notes.
OPEC lowers second-quarter global oil demand forecast on Iran war
OPEC on Monday lowered its forecast for world oil demand in the second quarter, citing the impact of the ongoing war in the Middle East, a copy of its monthly oil report seen by Reuters showed.
Live updates: Swalwell drops bid for California governor; Trump and Pope Leo feud
Get live updates and the latest news as Eric Swalwell drops his bid for California governor amid sexual misconduct allegations and Trump feuds with Pope Leo over his criticism of the Iran war.
Archer teams with ‘Mandalorian and Grogu’ for first entertainment deal
As the meat snacks marketer expands, it is collaborating with the “Star Wars” universe for a campaign spanning retail, digital, social and out-of-home.
Column | Where have all the computer science majors gone?
Computer science has been one of the hottest college majors for 15 years. Enrollment data suddenly shows a big drop.
As Iran war drags on, midterm forecasts for Republicans get even worse
The GOP was already bracing for a tough election, but with the ceasefire in doubt, gas prices are likely to stay high, and voters’ economic outlook is dismal.
How the AI and crypto industries are pouring tens of millions of dollars into elections
An analysis of campaign finance reports shows the web of super PACs backing — and going negative — on candidates with funds from big-name executives and companies.
Manchester United vs Leeds – Match preview and team news
Manchester United host Leeds United on Monday night to conclude the Premier League action of the matchweek.The Red Devils have enjoyed a remarkable transformation under Michael Carrick since January. ...
2026's Top 5 Public Couples Mark Entertainment's 'Open Love' Era
2026s Top 5 Public Couples Mark Entertainments Open Love Era From idols to actors, industrys top couples showcase love across genres, sparking fan celebrations
Eric Swalwell drops bid for California governor after sexual misconduct allegations
The Democratic candidate faced immediate calls to end his campaign, with many supporters withdrawing their endorsements.
Downtown Evanston to offer Refresh & Renew: Health & Wellness Open House event April 25
Spend April 25 day exploring local fitness and wellness businesses in downtown Evanston — try free mini-sessions, meet owners and instructors, tour spaces
Masters 2026: Rory McIlroy holds on to win his second straight Masters
McIlroy had a six-stroke lead after two rounds, but entered the final round in a tie for first place. On Sunday, he pulled away on the back nine for his second green jacket.
AIPAC may be a new litmus test for Democratic candidates. Leaders say voters' heads are elsewhere.
Last week's Democratic National Committee meeting illustrated a party trying to stay focused on economic issues while grappling with strong, changing opinions on Israel.
TST Best Bets: April 12, 2026
The day has come for the NBA’s 82-game regular season to come to an end, as all 30 teams play in their last contest of the season on Sunday with the final chance to lock in their postseason seeding. With the majority of the seeding locked up at the top of both conferences, the Eastern Conference’s lower rung will provide most of the excitement on the final slate, as seeds 5-10 are all yet to be decided. But the most consequential unresolved race impacting who will hoist the Larry O’Brien Trophy
The Guardian view on AI politics: US datacentre protests are a warning to big tech
Editorial: In both Republican and Democratic states, scepticism and hostility towards an unregulated construction boom is growing
The Latest: Final round of the 90th Masters has arrived
The final round of the 90th Masters has arrived, and it’s a tight race for the green jacket. Rory McIlroy and Cameron Young enter the round tied atop the leaderboard, and six others are within four shots after a dramatic Saturday. Sam Burns is one shot off the lead, Shane Lowry is two, and two-time Masters winner Scottie Scheffler lurks four shots back.
Some House members say they'll vote to expel Reps. Eric Swalwell and Tony Gonzales
Reps. Eric Swalwell, D-Calif., and Tony Gonzalez, R-Texas, have faced sexual misconduct allegations from former staffers.
Pop culture takes center stage at Shenandoah Comic-Con
Warriors, robots, demons and more came out to play at Shenandoah Comic-Con at the Rockingham County Fairgrounds exhibit hall on Saturday.
Cuban leader does not commit to releasing political prisoners amid U.S. demands
In an exclusive interview with Meet the Press, Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel is asked whether he is willing to commit to meeting key U.S. demands, including releasing political prisoners and scheduling multi-party elections.
As Swalwell’s campaign unravels, his rivals in California governor’s race scramble for an opening
The sexual misconduct allegations against Rep. Eric Swalwell are damaging his hopes of winning the governor’s race, with former allies revoking their endorsements and a growing list of prominent Democrats telling him to withdraw.
'We are accountable.' Meet Robert Mullen, head of Aultman Health System
In this week's Five questions with feature, meet Robert Mullen, president and CEO of Aultman Health System, the largest employer in Stark County.
'Human minds shouldn't have to go through' this: Artemis II crew recalls unreal moment when Earth disappeared — Space photo of the week
A stunning Earthset image from Artemis II recalls Apollo 8's Earthrise, marking humanity's return to deep space and the start of a new era of exploration.
Bruce Ledewitz: Our politics is a world of unreason
We live in an age of political unreason. Unless we are learn to think more reasonably, especially rejecting our own side’s partisan lies, America...
Denver beats Wisconsin 2-1 for its 11th national title and 3rd in 5 years
Denver's Johnny Hicks continued his stellar play by making 29 saves, just two days after a personal-high 49 against Michigan.
Fury dominates Makhmudov and calls out Joshua next
Tyson Fury marks his return to the heavyweight mix with a composed points win over Arslanbek Makhmudo, before immediately turning ringside to call out Anthony Joshua.
Role reversal: Phillies 4, Diamondbacks 3
Almost the exact same scenario as last night played out, only in reverse
ON THE JOB: “What is the Best Business Advice You’ve Ever Received?
Interviews by Deborah Jeanne Sergeant Sound advice can contribute to your success. We recently asked area business leaders, what was their best advice they’d ever received. Here’s what they said: “The best advice I ever received was from my then –boss, Gerry Church, Fulton plant manager at Miller Brewing Co. He told me that whenever I wanted to discuss a business problem or issue with him, I should also be prepared to offer possible solutions. It’s the difference between being proactive or reactive. It’s also the difference between being a leader or follower. That has served me well in any business relationship I have had since then.” — Stephen Chirello, Owner, Steve Chirello Advertising, Fulton “Someone will always do it for less; they will also take the most effort to service or satisfy and leave you for the next lower price.” — John M. Henry, Owner, Speedway Press, Mitchell Printing, Phoenix Press, Oswego “I’m going to answer this question by turning it around and giving my own advice that is, ‘Always treat every customer as if they were your only customer!’ We are celebrating our 50th anniversary in business this year. We started our business on March 25, 1976. My advice works.”” — Nick Chervinsky, President, Brewerton Pharmacy, Brewerton “’You need to toot your own horn, my grandfather, Howard D. Dice, told me.” — Beth Ann Dice, Women’s active aging and cancer recovery coach, Mission Movement Wellness Studio & Breast Cancer Recovery Studio, Fulton “In the micro enterprise class, they taught, ‘Get a good lawyer, accountant and bank.’ That was over 30 years ago and I still have those three today. I chose good people I could grow with.” — Tony Pauldine, Owner, Anthony M. Pauldine General Contractors Inc., Oswego “From my grandfather; ‘Listen to everyone! You never know where you will get the solution you need.’” — Kevin Dean, Executive director, Oswego County Opportunities, Fulton “‘Preparation is the mother of success.’ My dad always drilled that into my head growing up, and it has helped me avoid a lot of snags in both my personal and professional life. Thanks, Dad!” — Bekkah Frisch, Owner and president, iHeart Holdings, Inc., Fulton “If you don’t take a risk and try, you will never know.” — Justin Taber, Owner, Torbitt’s Service Center, Oswego “Be ready to take a loss.” — Cody Seymour, Manager, Damiano’s Eatery, Mexico “I’ve received so much good business advice over the years. When people are giving you advice, always be curious rather than judgmental. Follow your gut. Doing the right thing is never the wrong thing.” — Dana Decker, Principal owner/broker, Berkshire Hathaway Home Services, Oswego ’Do it and figure it out later.’ It hasn’t failed me yet. Too many people take time to think about doing this and this and this and then the opportunity is over with. If it’s somewhat reasonable — if it’s not something outrageous — do it and figure it out later.” — Jeremy Allen, Licensed real estate salesperson, Acropolis Realty Group, Syracuse “’Try to meet the needs of the customer. Treat them like you’d like to be treated.’ It’s like the Golden Rule says.” — Douglas Dickson, Physician and associate at CNY Foot Surgery and Podiatry Care, East Syracuse “The best piece of business advice I’ve ever received applies to life in general: always be honest. Never overstate your capabilities and always be willing to ask questions. The more specific you can be in any given topic will always lead to a better outcome.” — Tom Fernandez, President, Woodbine Hospitality, Syracuse “As a business owner, the advice would be ‘Don’t overextend yourself. Especially in agriculture, expect issues to come up.’ If something is going right, it’s not true agriculture. This last season, we scaled very hard to field another crew. We got more drones, crew and generators based on projections. This last season hit the ag community hard with a very wet spring. We did 15,000 to 20,000 acres for fungicide and the same for cover crop seeding in 2024. We scaled to 25,000 to 30,000 for 2025. We ended up doing 2,000 for fungicide and 3,000 for cover crop seeding. That’s why that advice was good.” — Rick Jordan, Operations manager, CNY Drove Services, Clinton “’Keep your head down, mind your own business and do the best for your clients that you can do.’ It has a lot to do with my success in working for Galloway Century 21.” — Ed Fayette, New York state licensed real estate agent, Century 21 Galloway, Oswego “’Expand in all ways, always.’ It just keeps you going and keeps you growing.” — Stephen Baier, Licensed real estate person, The Real Estate Agency & Bouck Commercial, Auburn “The best advice is, ‘Your biggest asset you won’t see on the books because it comes from your employees.’” — David Flickinger, Owner, Edible Arrangements, Syracuse “Don’t take things personally when you’re working with the public.” — Leeann Desimone, Manager, Annie’s Hallmark Shop, Auburn “‘Follow up.’ The customer knows that you care about what you are doing and that their opinion counts. Sometimes they might be on the fence about whether they want to use your company. If they’re asking your opinion on things, they feel you are concerned about what you’re doing. They like to be kept in the loop if they’re spending money with you.” — Dorothy Casper, Saslesperson, SweetWoods Memorials, Phoenix “The best business advice I received is ‘Never be the smartest person in the room. Surround yourself with people who are smarter than you.’ That’s how you learn.” — Debbie Bilello, Owner, Virtual Office Solutions, Central Square “’You need to grow your business but you can’t grow too big too fast.’ That’s what we’ve done at Pinnacle Maintenance. We’ve tried to grow but not too fast. Along those same lines, there’s another good piece of advice, ‘Don’t take on more than you can handle because it only leads to a bad name for your business and a bad experience for your customers.’ It goes along the same lines as growing your business slowly and carefully.” — David Wines, Owner, Pinnacle Maintenance, Central Square “Always be on time and do what you say you are going to do.’ I’ve done very well following that advice. Most of my work is referral and I don’t really do any advertising so I have a pretty good customer base. It’s mostly word-of-mouth from satisfied customers.” — Robert J. Fleming, Owner, Bob Fleming Windows & Doors, Brewerton “’Concentrate on your finances, always pay your taxes, and form a team you can depend on. Try to help the community you’re in as much as you can.’ We do all of these all the time here. We give and give and give to the community and the community gives back to us always.” — Susan Bonnet, Co-owner, Bonnet Sales and Service, Central Square “Keep smiling. It brings a positive attitude to the workplace.” — Karin Lindsley, Vice president, DTS Truck Service, Syracuse “‘Customer service above all.’ Following this advice has served us very well.’ — Guy Fox, Owner, Fox’s Discount Parts, West Monroe “The best thing to do is to make sure you’re taking in more money than you’re spending. I wish I could say I’m a good businessman but I have been in business since 1981. I’m not a bean counter but work well with my hands and its’s served me well all these years and I am still in business.” — Matt McGill, Owner, Matt McGill Collision, Brewerton
Chamber of Commerce Presents Achievement Awards
Event also marked 110th of the chamber’s presence in Oswego [caption id=attachment_10469 align=alignright width=450] Abby Waever and Keara Patterson (in the middle) receive the Community Leadership & Legacy Award, presented to The Alberts Group.[/caption] The Greater Oswego-Fulton Chamber of Commerce (GOFCC) on March 4 hosted its 2026 Annual Meeting, presented by Constellation, at the Lake Ontario Event and Conference Center in Oswego. The event’s theme, Rooted in Community. The meeting celebrated the GOFCC’s 110th anniversary in the Oswego community and 10th anniversary of integration with CenterState CEO. The chamber also unveiled a new logo. “I am proud to say the GOFCC has been a force for business success, growth and opportunity, supporting organizations of every size, connecting neighbors and entrepreneurs and ensuring that every voice in Oswego County is heard,” said GOFCC Executive Director Sara Broadwell. The event featured keynote remarks from Novelis’s Kevin Schutt, vice president, manufacturing and production support at Novelis North America. [caption id=attachment_10454 align=alignright width=450] Maria Hudson of Constellation, holding the award, receives the Nancy L. Premo Woman of Distinction Award.[/caption] The GOFCC recognized the following organizations and individuals with achievement awards: • Oswego County Impact & Excellence Award, presented to Oswego County Office of Mobility Management. This award Honors a small business or nonprofit organization that demonstrates outstanding achievement through innovation, growth and measurable positive impact on Oswego County’s economy or quality of life. • Community Leadership & Legacy Award, presented to The Alberts Group. This award recognizes an individual, business or organization whose long-term leadership, investment or philanthropy has significantly advanced the vitality, resilience and future of Oswego County’s communities. • Nancy L. Premo Woman of Distinction Award, presented to Maria Hudson of Constellation. This award honors a woman in business who has made a meaningful impact on her community, inspired others through her leadership, and exemplified the values of service, integrity and empowerment. This award is presented in tribute to the late Nancy Premo, CenterState CEO’s former vice president of Human Resources.
3 arrested after shooting at Clanton business
No one was injured as a result of the shooting.
Iowa romance author Denise Williams loves happy endings
Her first book, “How to Fail at Flirting,” was published in 2020. Since then she’s written 10 more. All of them have been in the romance genre, including her most recent release, “The Re-Do List.”
$10,000 bounty on the implementation of rollback netcode for Ultimate Marvel vs. Capcom 3 placed by Maximilian Dood
It's been nearly 15 years since Ultimate Marvel vs. Capcom 3 was released on November 15, 2011. Funnily enough, Ultimate Marvel vs. Capcom 3 was released about nine months after Marvel vs. Capcom 3 (February 15, 2011), which spawned ...
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
Finger Lakes Deaf Health Fair to feature 30+ local healthcare and advocacy organizations
Rochester, N.Y. — The 6th Annual Finger Lakes Deaf Health Fair will be held on Saturday from 10 a.m. to 3 p.m. at Monroe Community Hospital.The event offers a c
See 16 Actors You Forgot Guest Starred on 'Twin Peaks'
'Twin Peaks' premiered on ABC on April 8, 1990. From David Duchovny to Amanda Seyfried, find out the actors who appeared on the genre-bending TV series before (or even after!) they were famous.
Oregon's Dante Moore a model for mental health advocacy, teammates say
Oregon QB Dante Moore sent a letter to the governor about his mental health struggles and the need for services. His teammates praise his advocacy.
A key criminal case could soon get tossed because of acting Attorney General Todd Blanche’s comments
As Todd Blanche takes the reins at the Justice Department, a federal judge is set to decide whether controversial remarks made last year by the now-acting attorney general should lead to the unravelling of one of the Trump administration’s marquee criminal cases.
Stark County Community’s Choice Awards business spotlight: Quality Heating & Cooling
We’re in the final stretch! Ready to recognize your favorite local businesses? Submit your nominations for Stark County Community’s Choice Awards today.
Americans are eating up the meat industry's health claims
Consumer appetites for protein are fueling record meat sales, raising experts’ concerns about the risk of heart disease and other illnesses.
In praise of popular science
As a kid, I was enthusiastically and unreservedly in favor of a manned space program. Our destiny lay in the stars, I figured. Get people out there. We need Star Trek here and now. As I got older, I became rather disenchanted with the idea. Humans are expensive, fragile, and inefficient as space cargo. We could flood the solar system with 100 robotic probes for the price of any single manned mission and get back just as useful data. Besides, it turns out space travel is dangerous. Tusk is a reader-supported publication. To support this work, please become a paid subscriber. Subscribe When it came to the recent Artemis II mission, my cynical side didn’t really see the point. Flying around the Moon and back is literally something we did before I was born, and I once owned a Members Only jacket. Apollo 8 circled the Moon ten times and returned to Earth safely the same month that “Chitty Chitty Bang Bang” was released. What was the point of repeating a feat that far braver people once did with tin foil and slide rules? Yet I’ve surprised myself with how moving I’ve found the Artemis II mission to be. The photos have been stunning. The crew has been professional and engaging. There have been modest but important milestones — the farthest humans have travelled from Earth; the first woman, person of color, and non-American to leave low-Earth orbit; innovations in communication, and more. One thing that really stood out is that this is really NASA at its finest. Not that this is the most important mission they ever pulled off, but they did this in a competent way that celebrated the achievements and kept the crew and the science at the forefront of the project. This wasn’t some billionaire throwing celebrities or cars into orbit as a vanity project — this was a collective effort to send experts in to do a job and come home safely. We don’t see that sort of thing much these days. I’m guessing few people would describe many government agencies as inspiring, but this one counts for me. We’re living through a profoundly anti-science era, in which pathbreaking, lifesaving discoveries like mRNA vaccines are routinely downplayed or even vilified. As I’ve noted previously, this era is something like that of the Red Scare in the 1940s and 50s, in which “egghead” professors were portrayed as out of touch or even hostile to regular Americans. One of the things that helped break that spell was Sputnik — the Soviet communications satellite that demonstrated that the United States was falling behind in crucial scientific research and applications. Its launch triggered a new appreciation for American science and goaded the federal government into supporting research universities and labs. I’m not saying that Artemis is the equivalent of Sputnik, but it potentially reminds people that there’s some value to scientific endeavors and the human faces attached to them. Despite my love for the show “For All Mankind,” I’m far from convinced that there’s any real value to putting colonies on the Moon or Mars that would justify the capital investment and the massive health risks to the astronauts. But sending scientific good will ambassadors on a trip into space once in a while? Bring it. Share
Are you a ‘HENRY’? Why 90% of financial advisers will waive their minimums to get your business.
Most advisory firms’ $500,000 or $1 million thresholds are actually just branding tools. Here’s how to tell if you’re actually a good fit for their services.
Lansing business owners raise drainage issues after repeated flooding on Kalamazoo Street
Ingham County Drain Commissioner Patrick Lindemann is pushing back on residents’ concerns
Player Availability Report: #SKCvSJ
Player Availability Report is SportingKC.com’s look at the latest status updates around the team ahead of upcoming matches and is presented by Saint Luke’s. All details listed are from the league’s official Player Status Report that is submitted the day prior to the match. Sporting Kansas City is set to
5 To Watch: The Masters Edition & The Business of the Tournament
Check Out the 5 to Watch Masters Edition Below: This week with “The Sports Professor” Rick Horrow features a special edition with five things to watch at The Masters at Augusta National. Mr. Horrow goes behind the tournament with Amazon.com, Inc. (Nasdaq: AMZN) Video providing two hours of exclusive live coverage before handing it over […] The post 5 To Watch: The Masters Edition & The Business of the Tournament appeared first on CorpGov.
RFK Jr.’s new vaccine panel rules may help sidestep court order, experts say
Kennedy signed a new charter for the CDC’s vaccine advisory committee, adding more focus on vaccine injuries.
Kamala Harris' early 2028 advantage: From the Politics Desk
Plus, Cuba's president takes a defiant stance in the face of Trump’s threats.
Acting CDC director delayed release of study showing benefit of Covid vaccines
An HHS spokesperson said Dr. Jay Bhattacharya had concerns about the paper’s methodology. Some current or former CDC employees worry about political interference.
We Are America’s Story: Soundscapes Community Concert Celebrates Youth Voices
NEWPORT NEWS — Soundscapes will bring together students, families, and community members for its annual Community Concert, part of CNU’s Virginia Community Music Festival, in a powerful celebration of music, identity, and the stories that shape our nation. This year’s theme, “We Are America’s Story,” reflects the upcoming 250th anniversary of the United States and […]
Misericordia University Appoints New Dean to Lead College of Business
Misericordia University has appointed Todd A. Shawver, DBA, CMA as dean of its College of Business, effective July 1, 2026. A proven academic leader with a strong track record in enrollment growth, program innovation, and student success, Shawver brings extensive experience in advancing business education aligned with workforce needs and institutional mission.
Student-Led Fresh Check Day Promotes Importance of Student Mental Health - University of New Haven
A public health capstone course empowers students to design and lead an evidence-based mental health initiative, building peer-to-peer support and enriching campus awareness and suicide prevention readiness.
The week that supercharged MAGA media feuds over the Iran war
The right-wing media ecosystem that has long served as a useful bullhorn for President Donald Trump unraveled into disarray this week, as deepening fears over his management of the war — and fragile ceasefire — with Iran spilled into public infighting among some of his most prominent allies.
Cowboys trade rumors could impact Bengals on draft night
The Cowboys might be trading around the top 10. It could hurt (or help) the Bengals.
How the White House tried – and failed – to push a candidate out of a Republican state Senate primary in Indiana
With Trump’s sights set on unseating Indiana lawmakers who opposed his redistricting effort, his aides and allies feared a third candidate could play spoiler in one race.
New Business Licenses: 4.10.26
Over 100 licenses this week from Chesterfield and Henrico including towing, edibles, restaurants and more. (BizSense Pro required)
The nation’s cartoonists on the week in politics
Every week political cartoonists throughout the country and across the political spectrum apply their ink-stained skills to capture the foibles, memes, hypocrisies and other head-slapping events in the world of politics. The fruits of these labors are hundreds of cartoons that entertain and enrage readers of all political stripes. Here's an offering of the best of this week's crop, picked fresh off the Toonosphere. Edited by Matt Wuerker.
Is ‘office air’ ruining your look at work? Science says it’s possible
A TikTok trend has Gen Z and Millennial office workers sharing before-and-after photos at work, questioning whether the “office air” affects their appearance. NBC News’ Emilie Ikeda takes a look at the claims and how experts say there’s some truth to the theory.
LeBron James dunks right behind KTVU sports reporter Bailey O'Carroll
It's all eyes on Lakers LeBron James ahead of the Warriors final home game of the regular season. While warming up with some free throws ahead of their game with the Warriors, LeBron James decides to dunk, nearly taking out our sports reporter!
Celebrate Amazing Stories and Science Fiction’s 100th Birthday
Doors Open 7:15 p.m. Celebrate Amazing Stories and Science Fiction’s 100th Birthday with us! In April 1926, Hugo Gernsback published Amazing Stories magazine for the first time, and while the name of the genre took a few more years to become a household term, many credit this moment with the birth of Science fiction fandom as we know it today! Join us for a two-panels featuring a discussion on the impact of Amazing Stories and Science Fiction as a genre! Featuring published authors, scholars, and podcasters with deep knowledge of the history and great works of the last 100 years. The second panel will be a how-to guide for writing your own Science fiction stories or novels, including teachers, authors, and scholars of the genre. Verbatim Books on Facebook / Instagram
Penn researchers use AI to surface unreported GLP-1 side effects in Reddit posts
Could mining Reddit with AI help spot drug side effects earlier? A new Penn study suggests it might. Using large language models to map patient posts to standardized medical terms, researchers analyzed more than 400,000 Reddit posts about GLP-1s and found both known side effects and possibly underrecognized symptoms, like menstrual changes. The team says the approach could eventually help generate early safety signals for other drugs and wellness trends discussed online.
Chinese business ‘hired lobbying firm with ties to Donald Trump Jnr’
Lobbying firm Checkmate helped China’s Grand Pharmaceutical Group beat a US national security challenge, public filings show.
Trump and his party confront the political perils of chaos: From the Politics Desk
Plus, what Democratic voters in two states with key Democratic primaries are looking for.
Cuban president urges US dialogue without conditions of political change
Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel told NBC News that the country has asked U.S. President Donald Trump's administration to engage in dialogue without demanding changes from Cuba's political system or imposing other conditions, the network said on Thursday.
From The Sports Desk: Everyone’s talking Tiger
Woods’ absence looms large at the Masters. Also: Who will win the green jacket?
‘Blaming the conduct of companies may provide some comfort’
Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
What to know about changes to US military draft registration
The US Selective Service registration process is changing to automatic enrollment. The agency says the move aims to streamline registration.
Trump admin shifts focus of Title X program away from birth control
After an unusually short application window and a delay, the administration is distributing the program's 2026 funds. Next year, a bigger change is coming.
Franya Esquivel
CohnReznick, a leading professional services firm, has announced that Franya Esquivel has joined its Assurance practice as a director.
Republicans block effort to halt Trump's war with Iran after 'civilization' threat
House Democrats tried to force a vote on a war powers resolution during recess. Senate Democrats will launch a more serious attempt to rein in Trump when Congress returns next week.
US software stocks fall as Anthropic's new AI model revives disruption fears
U.S. software shares tumbled on Thursday after Anthropic held back the wide release of a powerful AI model over concerns it could expose hidden cybersecurity vulnerabilities, deepening investor fears about the threat to traditional software firms.
Justice Department investigating the NFL over subscription fees, source says
The DOJ probe is focused on possible anti-competitive tactics, a person familiar with the investigation told NBC News.
Chicharito joins Henry, Ibrahimovic as Fox Sports 2026 World Cup analyst
Mexico's all-time leading scorer adds to a star-laden panel of TV analysts for this summer's World Cup
Estrogen patch shortages are getting worse and could last for years
A spokesperson for the FDA said the agency is coordinating with companies to support efforts to boost the supply of patches for women with menopause symptoms.
Michael Patrick of 'Game of Thrones' Dies at 35. Motor Neuron Disease, Explained
The actor passed away on April 7 following a three-year-long health battle.
Unrivaled Sports Partners with Under Armour and DICK'S Sporting Goods to Build the Future of Youth Sports Experiences
/PRNewswire/ -- Unrivaled Sports, the nation's leader in youth sports experiences, today announced landmark partnerships with Under Armour (NYSE: UAA) and...
ULM Political Science faculty and students participate in state meeting
Political Science faculty and graduate students from the University of Louisiana Monroe recently participated in the Annual Meeting of the Louisiana Political Science Association (LPSA), held Friday, February 27, at Northwestern State University in Natchitoches, La.
ULM Political Science faculty and students participate in state meeting
Political Science faculty and graduate students from the University of Louisiana Monroe recently participated in the Annual Meeting of the Louisiana Political Science Association (LPSA), held Friday, February 27, at Northwestern State University in Natchitoches, La.
Cardio vs. Strength: Cardiologist on Which Is Better for Heart Health
In TODAY.com's Expert Tip of the Day, a cardiologist weighs in on the best type of exercise routine for heart health and heart disease prevention.
NHL Playoff Picture 2026: Standings & Stanley Cup Bracket
The race to the 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs is reaching its final, chaotic stretch. With less than a week left […]