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Mariners Game #19 Preview and Discussion: SEA at SDP
Emerson Hancock takes the ball for the Mariners on Jackie Robinson Day
Ronda Rousey steals the show with fiery Kayla Harrison rant
Ronda Rousey was at her very best during her time in the spotlight at the Palladium Times Square in New York, transforming the MVP MMA press conference into a war declaration on Kayla Harrison and the UFC. Despite being away from the octagon for almost a decade, Rousey remains atop the biggest ...
Kalshi faces Ohio fine amid sports betting legal battle
The fine comes on the heels of a court loss Kalshi suffered in March, when a federal judge said its offerings should be considered gambling.
Kalshi faces Ohio fine amid sports betting legal battle
The fine comes on the heels of a court loss Kalshi suffered in March, when a federal judge said its offerings should be considered gambling.
Goldman Sachs rates business hit by Iran war volatility, sources say
Goldman Sachs' rates business suffered losses on some positions towards the end of the last quarter as fixed-income market volatility due to the Iran war forced it to hold on to certain positions as a market maker, two people familiar with the matter said.
Skild AI Acquires Zebra Technologies’ Robotics Automation Business
Skild AI, a fast-rising startup that makes software to help robots learn to complete tasks, has bought the robotics automation division of Zebra Technologies Corp., marking its latest effort to broaden its reach in a hot segment.
Greenland's prime minister says citizens 'don't feel safe' after Trump's threats
Trump has pushed for the U.S. to take control of Greenland, a semi-autonomous Danish territory, despite being repeatedly rebuffed by Greenlandic and Danish authorities.
3 arrested after shots fired outside Clanton business
Officers responded shortly after 3 p.m. to a report of gunfire outside KMA Manufacturing, according toClanton police.
Preview: UFC Winnipeg Prelims
The UFC Winnipeg undercard features several debuting Canadian prospects—and the Octagon return of one well-remembered heavyweight character.
Why thousands of 2026 entertainment season workers are one accident away from financial disaster
Thimble reports that gig workers in the 2026 entertainment season face financial risk from accidents due to insufficient insurance coverage.
Why thousands of 2026 entertainment season workers are one accident away from financial disaster
Thimble reports that gig workers in the 2026 entertainment season face financial risk from accidents due to insufficient insurance coverage.
UF opens Whitney Marine Research Center, expanding marine science innovation in St. Augustine
The University of Florida celebrated the opening of its new Whitney Marine Research Center on April 14, marking a significant expansion of marine science research, education and conservation efforts at the Whitney Laboratory for Marine Bioscience.
Can defense contracts save VW's Osnabrück factory?
Volkswagen's Osnabrück plant is still building cars, but the order book is drying up quickly. As work fades, could a move into defense manufacturing save 2,500 local jobs? So far, the company is staying tight-lipped.
‘Doc’: Could Felicity Huffman Return as Joan in Season 3?
'We've talked about Joan coming back and being the ghost that haunts the halls of Westside.'
JD Vance appeals to MAGA youth on Iran war after suffering setbacks abroad
Vice President JD Vance appealed to disheartened MAGA youth in Georgia after stumbling on two recent foreign policy assignments.
How five UF business students faced 7,000 international competitors and took home first place
From mid-January to mid-March, the five of us competed in the Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest — an international tournament where participants assign probabilities to macroeconomic and geopolitical questions and get scored on relative accuracy.
New model helps investors and regulators understand complex businesses and see their positive sides
Warren Buffett advised that you should never invest in a business you can't understand. But that hasn't stopped many investors. New research from the McCombs School of Business at The University of Texas ...
The Unlikely Team That Ended One of the Longest Playoff Droughts in Sports
Despite starting the season at the bottom of the NHL standings, the reinvigorated Buffalo Sabres are heading to the Stanley Cup Playoffs for the first time since 2011.
Sabres’ playoff return has business of hockey booming in Buffalo again
The Sabres' attendance, TV ratings and merchandise sales have surged with Buffalo's first playoff team since 2011.
Medical scans and chips: the hidden fallout of the Iran war for China
Four months ago, a dozen academics and researchers from China’s top oil and gas producers issued a warning buried in an academic journal: the nation’s quest for self-sufficiency had a critical weak spot.
100 Points: Breaking Apart Bruins’ Win Over Devils
BOSTON – The Boston Bruins reached 100 points on Tuesday, and so did David Pastrnak, just in a different way. […] The post 100 Points: Breaking Apart Bruins’ Win Over Devils appeared first on Boston Hockey Now.
South Charleston business named West Virginia Small Businesses Manufacturer of the Year
SOUTH CHARLESTON, W.Va. (WOWK) – A small South Charleston business was named the West Virginia Small Businesses Manufacturer of the Year by the Small Business Administration. Cyclopes Industr…
Productivity and Politics
Productivity is normally the dry and esoteric stuff of academic debates. But at present, productivity lies at the root of some of the most contentious political debates. If one reads the newly released Economic Report of the President, one will find that the administration is expecting real gross domestic product (GDP) to grow at an average rate […]
Health of boy thrown from Tate Modern’s 10th floor worse after surgery, says family
French child, who was six years old at the time of the incident in 2019, suffered life-changing injuries
Oregon Ducks QB Dylan Raiola gives health update after broken leg
Oregon Ducks quarterback Dylan Raiola has been fully cleared after suffering a broke leg at the end of the 2025 season.
Two-year-old Surface PCs get $300 price hikes as sub-$1,000 models go away
Paying more for the same stuff" is the story of consumer technology in 2026.
‘A great fight town.’ UFC returns to Philly as latest major sports event planned for 2026
UFC 330 will be the MMA promotion’s first event in the city since 2019, and the first “numbered” event here since 2011.
NFIB Hosts Speaker Matt Huffman at Lima Small Business Roundtable
Lima small business owners had a lunchtime discussion with Speaker Huffman.
Eagles leak wild theory that could signal A.J. Brown trade
A.J. Brown trade rumors are not going away
Sporting suffer injury blow ahead of Arsenal 2nd leg
Ivan Fresneda is expected to miss Sporting CP’s match against Arsenal on Wednesday, but club captain Morten Hjulmand is back after suspension.Photo by Gualter Fatia/Getty ImagesSporting CP made a fe...
Health Systems Supporting Local Healthy Housing Goals
Safe, stable and healthy housing is foundational to public health, but the housing stock in many communities are met with hazards like lead, mold, pests and insufficient heating.
City of Eufaula looking for input from local business owners
The City of Eufaula is seeking input from local business owners and operators.
Abodi hits back at outgoing FIGC President Gravina: ‘Always because of politics’
Italian Minister for Sport Andrea Abodi has hit back at the outgoing FIGC President Gabriele Gravina, who previously hinted that the football association did not receive sufficient backing from the go...
Asking Eric: ‘Extremely online’ girlfriend shares too much
My friend sent me some of the links ... it wasn’t bad stuff, per se. Just her talking about going out to dinner with me or complaining about how I sleep ...
'Cherki has bought true freedom and creative magic'
Manchester City are finding their stride at the perfect time and it's the most daunting of warnings being issued simultaneously to those of an Arsenal persuasion. Mikel Arteta's side stumbled and Pep Guardiola's players pounced and at the heart of that deadly punch was Rayan Cherki, who grabbed the Chelsea game by the scruff of its neck to take all three points. Chelsea frustrated and on numerous occasions threatened to do their London rivals a favour in the first half on Sunday, but it was City who stood firm, albeit whilst not creating too much themselves.
Millions of Floridians Will Bear the Brunt of Trump’s Health Cuts
(Bloomberg) -- Millions of people in the US are expected to lose their health coverage in coming years because of shrinking funding for federal programs. Few states would suffer a bigger blow than Florida.Enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies expired in December. More than $900 billion in cuts to Medicaid safety-net programs are on the horizon. Across the US, in excess of 14 million people are expected to lose health insurance through 2034, according to health-policy research nonprofit KFF.Flor
Detroit Aims to Become Center of U.S. Drone Manufacturing
The state, known for making cars, is spending millions to entice drone manufacturers that can bring new business to auto suppliers.
Paulo Costa and Josh Hokit trade shots on social media
UFC 327 last Saturday was heavyweight Josh Hokit's coming out party. He garnered attention with his media antics leading up to the event and then put on a performance that won't soon be forgotten. Unranked Hokit faced No. 5 ranked Curtis Blaydes in a main card matchup and was part of what some are ...
ICE surge costs: Business seek relief | FOX 9 Minneapolis-St. Paul
Minneapolis and St. Paul took the hardest hit during the ICE surge, which the cities estimate at more than $300 million in business losses. But business owners in greater Minnesota suffered as well, and some of them are Republican lawmakers.
Exynos 2600 Was Born Out Of Sheer Necessity And Wouldn’t Have Entered Mass Production If Samsung’s Mistakes Not Cost It $3 Billion Last Year
As Samsung races towards self-sufficiency in the chipset race, it only mass produced the Exynos 2600 because it lost $3 billion in 2025
UFC White House adds historic $1 million fighter bonus
If the stakes at the UFC White House weren't already high enough, fighters will now get the chance to collect a $1 million bonus when the event rolls around on June 14. Upon the announcement of the event, there was excitement in the air with many predicting who they believed would feature on the ...
Luc Schrauf selected as Eberly College of Science spring 2026 student marshal
Luc Schrauf of State College, Pennsylvania, will be honored as the student marshal for the Penn State Eberly College of Science at the University’s spring 2026 commencement ceremony on Sunday, May 10, on the University Park campus.
Former Bills great @StevieJohnson13 mentoring WR Keon Coleman
Former Buffalo Bills wide receiver Stevie Johnson has taken Keon Coleman under his wing entering the young receiver’s third NFL season.
Sharks Mic Check: Trailer Park Sports Network
Brodie Brazil gives Will Stephens from Trailer Park Sports Network a tour of SAP Center during his first visit to the Tank.
Sid Krofft, 'H.R. Pufnstuf' creator and children's TV visionary, dies at 96
Sid Krofft has died at age 96 | KMBZ
Sid Krofft, 'H.R. Pufnstuf' creator and children's TV visionary, dies at 96
Sid Krofft has died at age 96 | WWL
Sid Krofft, 'H.R. Pufnstuf' creator and children's TV visionary, dies at 96
Sid Krofft has died at age 96 | Talk Radio 1210 WPHT
Two Pitt Materials Science Students Receive Ellwood Scholarships
University of Pittsburgh Swanson School of Engineering students Margo Levenson and Koh Bauman have received Ellwood Metallurgy Scholarships, which include a paid summer internship. Ellwood, a family-owned metals manufacturer, offers the scholarship to high-caliber, third-year college students studying metallurgy.Levenson, a Pittsburgh native who...
How Artemis 2 commander Reid Wiseman saved the mission's moon mascot: 'It's hard not to love this little guy. I can't let Rise out of my sight'
"I stuffed that little guy in a dry bag we had in our survival kit, and hooked the bag onto my pressure suit."
Cristian Romero: Tottenham captain to miss rest of season after suffering knee injury in Sunderland defeat
SBA now offering help for small business owners affected by drought
the Small Business Administration (SBA) is now offering disaster loans for small business owners who've suffered finnancial losses due to drought.
SBA now offering help for small business owners affected by drought
the Small Business Administration (SBA) is now offering disaster loans for small business owners who've suffered financial losses due to drought.
Business Notes: NSU raises $147M; McDonald’s to open in Virginia Beach
Norfolk State University’s Now Is Our Time campaign raised $147 million, exceeding its original $90 million goal. View the latest business news in Hampton Roads.
How 3 small Gainesville businesses are using — or rejecting
As the integration of AI becomes more prominent, local businesses are deciding how far they are willing to incorporate it into their systems.
The ‘bar has raised’ for UF computer science and engineering students
AI is changing expectations of CSE students entering the workforce
DoctorGPT: AI’s rising role in Gainesville healthcare
Alachua County Deputy Fire Chief Jeff Taylor said the department uses AI for administrative tasks but remains wary of bringing the technology into patient care.
Seneca Falls Park Launches Suffrage & Science Week
Suffrage & Science Week is coming to Seneca Falls! ♀️ Explore the connection between women's rights and the scientific world at the Women's Rights National H...
Sand, science and strategy: Strengthening the shores of Presque Isle
The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Buffalo District, has just released a very interesting video named ‘Sand, science and strategy: Strengthening the Shores of Presque Isle’. This video shows how the Buffalo District – using modern technology and hands-on expertise – fights erosion and protects the coastline of Presque Isle for the future: This content […]
China’s TCL Is Said to Consider Stake Sale in India TV Business
TCL Electronics Holdings Ltd. is considering selling a stake in its Indian television manufacturing unit to local buyers to help grow the business, people familiar with the situation said.
Curtis Blaydes suffered multiple significant facial injuries at UFC 327
Engaging in a “Fight of the Year” candidate took its toll on Curtis Blaydes.
UFC adds former title challenger to the White House card
Despite arguably being one of the best six-fight lineups in the company's history, the UFC White House card suffered backlash from fans for not living up to the lofty expectations placed on its shoulders. To combat the noise, Dana White decided to add more firepower to the June 14 event. The ...
Sabres seeking two more wins, starting with Blackhawks Monday
With two games remaining in the regular season, the playoff-bound Buffalo Sabres can finish anywhere from first to third in a stacked Atlantic Division.
Universities Allied for Essential Medicines advocates for affordable health care
While a vial of insulin takes as little as $2 to manufacture, it can cost consumers $250 in the United States. Universities Allied for Essential Medicines, an international advocacy organization that has chapters at universities including UCLA, raised awareness about medication unaffordability during its annual North American conference at the Neuroscience Research Building from April 3 to 5.
Adam Kinzinger visits Tufts to discuss US politics, a look into the future
Members of the Tufts community sat in a packed auditorium on Wednesday evening while former Congressman Adam Kinzinger reflected on a decision that solidified his reputation and legacy within the American political sphere.
Woman, 26, Had Excessive Itching but Was Told 'It's Just One of Those Things.' She Then Self-Diagnosed Her Cancer (Exclusive)
A young woman suffered from excessive itching and was dismissed by multiple doctors, before she eventually self-diagnosed herself with cancer. Sumbul Ari recalls her health journey in an exclusive interview with PEOPLE.
What Flutter Entertainment (FLUT)'s Board Shuffle, Buybacks and Quiet Dart Stake Mean For Shareholders
In recent days, Flutter Entertainment plc reported that long-serving independent director Alfred F. Hurley, Jr. will retire at the 2026 AGM, with Nancy Dubuc set to assume the role of Chair of the Compensation and Human Resources Committee, while the company continues executing a multi-billion-dollar share repurchase program. At the same time, billionaire investor Kenneth Dart has quietly built substantial economic exposure to Flutter through total return swaps, even as analysts question...
Doctors expose ‘buffalo hump’ as potential sign of hidden health conditions
A "buffalo hump" — a fatty bulge at the base of the neck — can sometimes signal underlying medical conditions, experts say. Causes range from poor posture to hormonal disorders.
Deion Sanders gives encouraging health update at Colorado spring game
Deion Sanders returned to the field for the Buffaloes' spring game after dealing with blood clots, and he provided a positive update on his health.
Coachella 2026 YouTube livestream: How to watch Karol G on Sunday
How to watch Coachella 2026 Day 3 YouTube livestream: Karol G, BigBang, Laufey, Little Simz, Kaskade, Young Thug, FKA Twigs, Subtronics and more.
Napoli draw at Parma gives Inter chance to put one hand on Serie A title
Napoli's Serie A title defence suffered a blow with Sunday's 1-1 draw at Parma which gave league leaders Inter Milan the chance to move nine points clear.Napoli trail Inter by six points, a gap which could increase following the late match between the Milan giants and Champions League chasers Como.
Jon Jones may ‘feel the fire’ to return after UFC 327 but Dana White definitely does not
Jon Jones continues to flip flop on whether or not he intends to retire from the sport, which doesn’t surprise UFC CEO Dana White one bit. White spent the last couple of years glazing Jon Jones as the GOAT of MMA, but that all ended after “Bones” retired in June 2025, reneging on a reported […]
Brewers ask Brandon Woodruff to salvage series finale vs. Nationals
The Milwaukee Brewers will turn to veteran Brandon Woodruff as they look to avoid a series sweep by the visiting Washington Nationals on Sunday afternoon.
Anker's EufyMake E1 Finally Brings Printers Out of the Dark Ages
This ultraviolet printer prints on literally anything—canvas, wood, metal, plastic, you name it. Like all things that are the first of their kind, it also costs a heavy premium.
Science & Medicine: Pain researchers have their eyes on ending chronic pain
A UT Health San Antonio researcher is working to map the nerves involved in jaw pain as part of a federally funded consortium aimed at developing the first targeted, non-opioid treatment for chronic pain, research he hopes will give millions of suffering Americans their lives back and ultimately reverse or even prevent pain in the first place.
Country music star says UFOs chased her plane for hundreds of miles
She said the orbs followed her plane from Arkansas to Nashville.
How the Mall of Louisiana survived the retail apocalypse — and how it can continue to stay afloat
Since 1997, the Mall of Louisiana has served as Baton Rouge’s go-to shopping center, surviving a period when many malls suffered from financial pressures and competition with online shopping.
Beloved band’s fans heartbroken after key member dies in crash: ‘Fly high my brother!’
He was 67.
Sooo ... About Last Night
Last night (Sat., April 11, 2026), Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) ventured forth to Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida for UFC 327. Was this the deepest numbered event since UFC 300? Maybe Jon Anik was onto something! There were great fights from top to bottom, like Kelvin Gastelum vs. Vicente Luque on the early “Prelims” card. […]
Why Bill Moos is fed up with major college sports
Bill Moos, former player, coach and athletic director of some of the country’s past and present powerhouses, has seen the future of college athletics and is glad he retired to 63 acres near Spokane.
UFC signs Gable Steveson, announces debut date
It's seemed inevitable, but Gable Steveson is headed to the UFC.
UFC 327 live blog: Jiri Prochazka vs. Carlos Ulberg
Jiri Prochazka and Carlos Ulberg battle for a vacant UFC title in UFC 327 main event
See How the Brewers Suffered Another Loss
The Milwaukee Brewers' skid has extended to four games, and a common theme continues to plague them.
Deion Sanders back on the field at Colorado's spring game
After a season that saw Colorado go 3-9, Buffaloes coach Deion Sanders, 58, was hands-on as he watched his team scrimmage on Saturday at the spring game, telling reporters that "I'm good, I'm good," after being diagnosed with bladder cancer last year.
RFK Jr. Once Touted Raw Milk. Now He’s Stopped Talking About It.
The health secretary has instead promoted whole milk, a politically safer choice, as he seeks to avoid “weird stuff.”
Deion Sanders Offers Health Update After Colorado's Spring Game
Following his NFL career, Colorado Buffaloes coach Deion Sanders has had a few complications with his health, which have included blood clots and bladder cancer
Chamber of Commerce Presents Achievement Awards
Event also marked 110th of the chamber’s presence in Oswego [caption id=attachment_10469 align=alignright width=450] Abby Waever and Keara Patterson (in the middle) receive the Community Leadership & Legacy Award, presented to The Alberts Group.[/caption] The Greater Oswego-Fulton Chamber of Commerce (GOFCC) on March 4 hosted its 2026 Annual Meeting, presented by Constellation, at the Lake Ontario Event and Conference Center in Oswego. The event’s theme, Rooted in Community. The meeting celebrated the GOFCC’s 110th anniversary in the Oswego community and 10th anniversary of integration with CenterState CEO. The chamber also unveiled a new logo. “I am proud to say the GOFCC has been a force for business success, growth and opportunity, supporting organizations of every size, connecting neighbors and entrepreneurs and ensuring that every voice in Oswego County is heard,” said GOFCC Executive Director Sara Broadwell. The event featured keynote remarks from Novelis’s Kevin Schutt, vice president, manufacturing and production support at Novelis North America. [caption id=attachment_10454 align=alignright width=450] Maria Hudson of Constellation, holding the award, receives the Nancy L. Premo Woman of Distinction Award.[/caption] The GOFCC recognized the following organizations and individuals with achievement awards: • Oswego County Impact & Excellence Award, presented to Oswego County Office of Mobility Management. This award Honors a small business or nonprofit organization that demonstrates outstanding achievement through innovation, growth and measurable positive impact on Oswego County’s economy or quality of life. • Community Leadership & Legacy Award, presented to The Alberts Group. This award recognizes an individual, business or organization whose long-term leadership, investment or philanthropy has significantly advanced the vitality, resilience and future of Oswego County’s communities. • Nancy L. Premo Woman of Distinction Award, presented to Maria Hudson of Constellation. This award honors a woman in business who has made a meaningful impact on her community, inspired others through her leadership, and exemplified the values of service, integrity and empowerment. This award is presented in tribute to the late Nancy Premo, CenterState CEO’s former vice president of Human Resources.
Are the Bills better after offseason additions and departures?
The Bills made some big moves, including trading for DJ Moore and signing Bradley Chubb. Is Buffalo’s roster improved?
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
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