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'Leeds must seize this moment at all costs'
After a tremendous finish to the season, Daniel Farke has called for Leeds United to invest heavily this summer. Had Farke found the formula faster, Leeds would be challenging for Europe. With meaningful investment and using these tactics from the start of next season, United could realistically place much higher than their current position of 14th.
Jacobs Entertainment celebrates the completion of Phase One in Downtown Reno
Jacob’s Entertainment is celebrating the completion of Phase One, following a $400 million investment and five years of revitalizing the historic 4th Street in Downtown Reno.
55-Story Tower could become Reno’s tallest building in J Resort plans
The celebration took place in the property's new 4th Street expansion.
Jacobs Entertainment completes Phase One of Reno’s Neon Line District
The celebration took place in the property's new 4th Street expansion.
Prolight + Sound Guangzhou 2026: the world's largest entertainment and professional AV fair returns on 28 May
/PRNewswire/ -- The 24th edition of Prolight + Sound Guangzhou (PLSG) is set to open on 28 May and will run until 31 May at Areas A and B of the China Import...
Prolight + Sound Guangzhou 2026: the world's largest entertainment and professional AV fair returns on 28 May
/PRNewswire/ -- The 24th edition of Prolight + Sound Guangzhou (PLSG) is set to open on 28 May and will run until 31 May at Areas A and B of the China Import...
Business owner Powers is 4th candidate to enter Rochester’s open race for mayor
An open mayoral race in Rochester is attracting more candidates. The most recent is Joe Powers, who owns a well-known catering and restaurant enterprise.
Analysis: Brighton face nervy final day
Brighton travelled to Leeds United knowing a win would secure European football for only the second time in their 124-year history. Leeds - playing with freedom after securing another year of top-flight football - made their life extremely difficult in the first half. Veltman's shot was blocked by Jaka Bijol and a swerving effort from Gross that needed Darlow to save were the only times they threatened before Van Hecke spurned the gilt-edged chance to put them in front in the 44th minute.
‘Michael’ reclaims the top box office spot in its 4th weekend
The Michael Jackson biopic, “Michael,” is reclaiming the top spot in the North American box office. Studio estimates on Sunday show the film earned $26.1 million in its fourth weekend
LIVE FEED | Ligue 1 Multiplex
Ligue 1, Round 34, 17/05/24Welcome to GFFN’s live coverage of the 34th and final game week of the 2025-2026 Ligue 1 season! It’s all to play for for the final two Champions League qualifying spots...
SpaceX Dragon Docks to Station Filled with New Science Experiments
At 6:37 a.m. EDT, the SpaceX Dragon spacecraft docked to the forward port of the International Space Station’s Harmony module, carrying nearly 6,500 pounds of food, supplies, and equipment for the Expedition 74 crew. This is the 34th SpaceX commercial resupply services mission to the space station for NASA.
Rooted in San Francisco: 10 Years of the Legacy Business Program
Opening reception at the San Francisco Public Library for the exhibit celebrating a decade of San Francisco’s Legacy Business Program, June 4 from 6:00-7:45 p.m., SFPL Main Library, 4th Floor
NASA Science, Cargo Launch on 34th SpaceX Resupply Mission to Station
The 34th SpaceX commercial resupply mission under contract with NASA is headed to the International Space Station with new scientific experiments after
The 4th Linux kernel flaw this month can lead to stolen SSH host keys
The good news is there's already a patch. The bad news is that the fix isn't available for all Linux distributions yet. Here's what you can do in the meantime.
Rocket Science Health validates targeted olfactory-cleft deposition in non-human primates ahead of the 4th Nasal Formulation & Delivery Summit
As the pace of modern drug discovery accelerates, the industry is increasingly recognizing that a breakthrough molecule is only as effective as its ability to reach the target site.
Community: Assumption High rodeo raises funds for FFA program
Rodeo fans enjoyed a weekend of fun, festivities and western entertainment at the 14th annual Assumption High School FFA Benefit Rodeo at the Assumption Parish Agriculture Complex April 24-25.
Royal Oak Taco Fest returns for another 4th of July weekend full of food and entertainment
Royal Oak Taco Fest returns this Fourth of July weekend with added activities in celebration of America's 250th anniversary.
UIndy Captures GLVC All-Sports Trophy for 14th Straight Year
UIndy Athletics continued its dominance in the department-wide metric, winning the GLVC All-Sports Trophy by 23 points over second-place Maryville.
Louisiana's youth obesity rate increased last year, so did it's national ranking. See the data.
Louisiana has gone from 5th-highest to the 4th-highest in the nation for youth obesity. See the national data.
What The Abortion Pill Case Could Mean For The Workforce And Healthcare
A federal appeals court said providers could no longer mail mifepristone anywhere in the country. SCOTUS temporarily restored access for mailing the drug until May 14th.
It’s Only a Matter of Time Until the Supreme Court Cracks on the 14th Amendment
The president has upped the pressure on conservative Justices. Something tells me they won’t be able to handle it.
Art on the Square returns for 24th year with art, food and entertainment
The annual art festival offers children’s activities, a high school art competition and live music.
James Harden bounces back with 4th-quarter heroics in Cavaliers' Game 3 win vs. Pistons: 'What chatter?'
UWF Lewis Bear Jr. College of Business and Combined Rotary Clubs of Pensacola name 2026 Ethics in Business Award Recipients - University of West Florida Newsroom
The University of West Florida Lewis Bear Jr. College of Business and the Combined Rotary Clubs of Pensacola named Sam Young and Tom Vaughn as the 2026 recipients of the annual Ethics in Business Award during the 24th Combined Rotary Luncheon at the Pensacola Yacht Club. The Ethics in Business Award recognizes individuals who exemplify […]
Pistons hold off Cavaliers in Game 2 to take 2-0 series lead
Another big 4th quarter from Cade Cunningham pulled Detroit to an early lead at home.
Lady Bridgerton: A Look Into Exclusive The Sims 4 Masquerade Ball Bundle Offer
The announcement of new Lady Bridgerton Kits releasing May 14th, 2026 also came packed with a reveal of The Sims 4 Masquerade Ball Bundle offer. Which is an
Weekly Sports Business Update
Sports & Entertainment Business News - Week of May 7th, 2026
Robert Half wins two Stevie® awards in the 2026 American Business Awards
/PRNewswire/ -- Global talent solutions and business consulting firm Robert Half (NYSE: RHI) has earned two Stevie awards in the 24th Annual American Business...
New water battery could last until the 24th century — and it can be safely discarded in the environment
With no toxic elements to dispose of, the new aqueous battery design could dramatically improve the safety and longevity of battery energy-storage systems.
Arts-Entertainment: Source Alvon Johnson set for Mother’s Day shows
To purchase advanced tickets for Johnson’s performance at The 4th Corner Speakeasy, visit 4thcornerspeakeasy.com/alvon-johnson-2/
Mountain Amateur Athletics Club announces winners of 64th WNC Sports Awards Banquet
The Mountain Amateur Athletics Club honored WNC's top high school student-athletes in its 64th annual awards banquet on May 3.
Radiological protection and public health experts discuss emerging challenges and future priorities
The 84th meeting of the NEA Committee on Radiological Protection and Public Health (CRPPH) included topical sessions, discussed the 2027-2028 programme of work and marked a chair transition, with the appointment of Antony Bexon (United Kingdom) as the new Committee Chair, succeeding Thierry Schneide...
Drive to Celebrate Youth Sports Athletes at Fluor Field
Drive to Celebrate Youth Sports Night at Fluor Field on May 12 Youth athletes invited to enjoy complimentary ticket, pregame parade, District 356 street party, and more The Greenville Drive will celebrate the next generation of athletes on Tuesday, May 12, as Fluor Field hosts the 4th annual Youth Sports
May the 4th be with the ballpark: Inside MLB's Star Wars obsession
What began as a novelty promotion has evolved into a leaguewide tradition as nearly every MLB team now hosts a Star Wars-themed game.
TST Best Bets: May 3, 2026
After the Philadelphia 76ers became the 14th team to ever come back from a 3-1 lead to win the series, the Detroit Pistons enter Sunday on the brink of history themselves. Detroit looked to be in dire straits against the Orlando Magic, as their physical defense made for a very poor matchup with the Pistons’ lack of secondary offensive creators behind Cade Cunningham. However, aided by an untimely injury to Franz Wagner for the Magic, the Pistons have started to look like the 60-win team they wer
Sixers complete comeback against Jayson Tatum-less Celtics in Game 7, setting up clash with Knicks
The Sixers have completed the 14th 3-1 comeback in NBA playoffs history, at the expense of the Celtics.
Palmeiras and Santos name line-ups for Brasileirão derby
Palmeiras and Santos have announced their lineups for this Saturday’s clash (2), at 6:30 p.m., at Allianz Arena, in the 14th round of the Brasileirão.Premiere will broadcast it. And you can check t...
Seymour Hope Walk and Mental Health Fair opens Mental Health Awareness Month
Seymour Community High School hosted its 4th Annual Hope Walk and Mental Health Resource Fair Friday afternoon.
Silver Dollar City named Best Theme Park for 4th year in a row
USA TODAY readers have voted Silver Dollar City as the nation's best theme park once again. Its Time Traveler roller coaster also moved up the list.
Skidmore College Athletics honors student-athletes at annual Sports Recognition Night
The Skidmore College Athletic Department hosted its annual Sports Recognition night on Monday, honoring the school's top student-athletes. It was the 44th version of the event, started in 1983.
Steam Frame isn't Launching Alongside Steam Controller on May 4th Due to RAM Shortage
Steam Controller, Valve’s next-gen gamepad, is slated to launch on May 4th for $100, although you shouldn’t expect to see a big ‘buy’ button next to Steam Frame or Steam Machine. Speaking to Polygon, Valve revealed that it’s only releasing Steam Controller next month for a pretty important (and slightly obvious) reason: Steam Controller “doesn’t […]
Aaron Judge makes Yankees history on his birthday
It was a 34th birthday to remember for Aaron Judge, and one that etched his name even deeper into New York Yankees history. The superstar slugger hit a homer on Sunday against the Astros and has now launched three home…
Donte DiVincenzo becomes 4th player with No. 0 jersey to tear his Achilles in the past year
Denver Broncos select PLAYER with their 170th overall selection
With their 152nd overall selection in the 5th round of the 2026 NFL Draft, the Denver Broncos select NC State TE Justin Joly The Athletic’s Dane Brugler had Justin Joly as his TE5 in this draft and had a 3rd/4th round grade on him. Now, the Broncos trade up to get him in the 5th […]
Saints pick WR Bryce Lance, brother of Chargers QB Trey Lance, in 4th round of 2026 NFL Draft
14th annual Southwest Colorado Small Business Conference coming to Ignacio in May
The 14th annual Southwest Colorado Small Business Conference promises to supply “practical strategies, fresh ideas, and valuable connections” for attendees from all industries. The conference, which ...
Stevie® Award Winners Announced in The 24th Annual American Business Awards®
/PRNewswire/ -- The Stevie® Awards, organizers of the world's premier business awards programs, today announced the Gold, Silver, and Bronze Stevie winners in...
🚨 Line-ups ready: Mallorca and Valencia open the matchday
RCD Mallorca and Valencia CF kick off LaLiga Matchday 33 this Tuesday in a dramatic clash in the battle for survival. Separated by just one point, 14th and 15th in the table face off in one of the fir...
MSU Student Horticulture Association hosts spring plant sale during the 14th annual Science Festival
The Student Horticulture Association hosted its spring show and plant sale on the MSU campus Sunday as part of a month-long Science Festival.
Snake Bytes 4/19
Team News Corbin in the clutch! Carroll belts 4th career slam to lift D-backs to series win Since April 4, the bullpen has allowed 12 earned runs in 46 innings, that’s a 2.35 ERA. “They’ve been really good,” Carroll said. “It seems like whoever comes out of that gate is ready to go from pitch […]
Oklahoma wins 4th NCAA women's gymnastics title in 5 years
Oklahoma senior Faith Torrez drilled the final routine of her career, delivering a near-perfect performance on the floor exercise as the last competitor on the final rotation to help the Sooners win the NCAA women's gymnastics championships on Saturday.
Newcastle: Eddie Howe's biggest Newcastle challenge yet? Can he survive?
Newcastle are languishing in 14th place in the Premier League following defeat by Bournemouth. Will manager Eddie Howe turn it around?
Amherst Sustainability Festival: A Day of Family Fun, Education, and Entertainment
Mark your calendars for the 14th Annual Amherst Sustainability Festival, taking place on Saturday, April 25 from 10 a.m. to 3 p.m. on the Amherst Town Common. Coinciding with the regularly scheduled Amherst Farmer’s Market, this free and family friendly event brings together local farmers, environmental vendors, advocacy groups, live entertainment, hands-on demonstrations, sustainable crafts, and much more. “The Amherst Sustainability Festival has become a beloved event
New LSU science building aims to keep Louisiana talent in state
148,000-square-foot facility features labs, workspaces and glass-walled teaching areas
Oilers spring sports stand strong
By Mara Waire wairem@findlay.edu Men’s Golf The University of Findlay Men’s Golf team competed on the road at the Wright State Invitational on April 13, 2026, finishing 4th overall against a field composed primarily of Division I programs. The team posted a cumulative score of 18 over par, recording consistent rounds of 292, 284, and […]
Cosm Breaks Ground on Immersive Entertainment Venue in Downtown Cleveland
CLEVELAND — Cosm, along with Bedrock and Rock Entertainment Group, have broken ground on a new entertainment venue located at the intersection of East 4th Street, Prospect Avenue and Huron Road in downtown Cleveland. Dubbed Cosm Cleveland, the venue will sit directly across from Rocket Arena (formerly Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse), home of the NBA’s Cleveland Cavaliers and AHL’s Cleveland Monsters. The two professional sports franchises are owned by Dan Gilbert, founder of Rocket Mortgage, Bedrock and Rock Entertainment Group. Spanning approximately 64,000 square feet and rising three stories, Cosm Cleveland will comprise two programmatic elements: The Dome and The Hall. Through Cosm’s proprietary technology called Shared Reality, the venue will merge a stadium-like atmosphere with state-of-the-art visuals in a communal setting. Rossetti Architects designed Cosm Cleveland, and Bedrock is leading the development. The venue, which will anchor Bedrock’s Rock Block mixed-use development, is slated to open in 2027. “This is a major milestone for our downtown Gateway District, and the arrival of Cosm is a testament to our community’s spirit and resilience,” says Cleveland Mayor Justin Bibb. “This incredible venue will enhance our city’s reputation as a hub for sports and entertainment, drawing visitors from near and far to experience a…
Memory Wars: Facts, Disinformation, and the Politics of Remembrance
The 14th European Remembrance Symposium in Bratislava, Slovakia, on 27–29 May 2026, will explore how collective memory is shaped and weaponized in today’s geopolitical climate. Bringing together an illustrious line-up of experts, the event examines disinformation, identity, and the role of historical narratives in modern political conflict.
2026 NFL Mock Draft: Cleveland Browns choose tackle
With the 24th overall pick in the 2026 Bleeding Green Nation community mock draft, Cleveland Browns GM FierceDisc65 selects ...
Preston Middle School reclaims state title in Science Olympiad
Preston Middle School reclaims the Science Olympiad state title, winning its 14th since 2010 and 15th overall to advance to the national tournament.
High School Sports: April 14th
Watch highlights from Tuesday's high school softball, soccer and baseball.
49ers News: Gonna be a long night next Thursday
Your daily San Francisco 49ers news for Tuesday, April 14th, 2026
Finalists announced for 64th WNC Sports Awards Banquet held May 3
The banquet will feature more than 100 WNC high school athletes and will be held May 3 at the Omni Grove Park Inn.
How we reported on KY's 4th Congressional District, Massie, and Trump
How The Enquirer reported on the Massie-Gallrein race throughout the congressional district.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
SUNY professor examines Trump's executive order on birthright citizenship
As the Supreme Court weighs President Trump's executive order on birthright citizenship, a professor looks at the definition of the 14th Amendment.
Georgia’s 14th District runoff reveals significant shift to Democrats
A November rematch is already brewing after Republican Clay Fuller staved off Democrat Shawn Harris in Tuesday's runoff.
8GB of RAM Hasn’t Hurt MacBook Neo Sales at All
And you can bet Apple is already planning a sequel with slightly more RAM.
Roxy Regional Theatre Celebrates 44th Season with Gala and Live Entertainment on April 25th - Clarksville Online - Clarksville News, Sports, Events and Information
Clarksville, TN - Poised to enter its 44th year of professional live theatre in historic downtown Clarksville, the Roxy Regional Theatre is celebrating
Maine Senate candidates emphasize priorities
While Platner continues his statewide town hall tour — Tuesday was his 54th — Mills released her policy platform.
2026 NFL Mock Draft: Baltimore Ravens take tackle
With the 14th overall pick in the 2026 Bleeding Green Nation community mock draft, Baltimore Ravens GM 215T1LL1D1e selects ...
Willson Contreras lashes out at Brewers after 24th career HBP: 'I'm going to take one of them out'
Contreras was hit by a Brandon Woodruff pitch in the third inning Monday night
Country artists Big & Rich to headline Coralville 4thFest
Country music duo Big & Rich will headline a free concert at Coralville’s 4thFest on July 3, 2026, with special guest KC Bruner. The concert is open to all ages.
14th Gen Core "Raptor Lake" Will Continue to be "Abundantly Available," Says Intel
Intel will continue to ensure production of its 14th Gen Core "Raptor Lake Refresh" desktop processors, 700-series motherboard chipset, and ensure continued availability of the Socket LGA1700 platform. In an interview with Club386, Intel's VP and GM of client segment technical marketing, Robert Hall...
White Sox's Munetaka Murakami hits 4th HR in 1st 8 MLB games, besting Shohei Ohtani's record by Japanese player
Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham
It's back, Albuquerque! The New Mexico Museum of Natural History & Science reopens today, April 4th after eight months of renovations! Expect a revamped lobby, the brand-new Animal Armor traveling...
Golden Nuggets: 16 days until 49ers OTAs begin
Your daily San Francisco 49ers news for Saturday, April 4th, 2026
Bill Self announces return to Kansas for 24th season
One of the most renowned coaches in MBB announced that he'll return for his 24th season at the helm of his program for the 2026-27 season.
Stephen Curry reportedly hopes to return against Rockets on Sunday
Dr. Sylvia M. James Butterfield to Deliver Barton College’s 124th Commencement Address
Dr. Sylvia M. James Butterfield, NSF STEM Education leader, will deliver the keynote at Barton College’s 124th Commencement on May 9, 2026.
Fourth Texas Area Planetary Science Meeting Returns in August 2026
The 4th Texas Area Planetary Science Meeting (TAPS) will be held on August 20–21, 2026, at the Commons Conference Center at The University of Texas at Austin.
Don't worry Kingdom Hearts fans, it looks like we might get some new info on Kingdom Hearts 4 in... a year's time?
A new illustration for the 24th anniversary of Kingdom Hearts has some hoping for a Kingdom Hearts 4 update soon.
Tetsuya Nomura posts new art for Kingdom Hearts 24th anniversary
The revered Tetsuya Nomura has uploaded some new Kingdom Hearts-inspired artwork to celebrate the fact that the beloved series is currently celebrating its 24th anniversary.
Eight new members inducted to Louisiana Political Hall of Fame during annual ceremony
Eight new members of the Louisiana Political Hall of Fame were inducted during the 34th Annual Louisiana Political Museum Hall of Fame Induction ceremony.
Health and welfare budget passes senate on second attempt, now including further cuts
On the 74th day of the legislative session, the Senate voted to approve a revised Health and Human Services maintenance budget after initially failing earlier t
UMW Undergraduate Business Program Recognized in Poets&Quants
The University of Mary Washington has once again been named in the top 100 Poets&Quants Best Undergraduate Business Schools, released March 23. The 2026 list recognizes 110 universities based on admissions standards, academic experience and career outcomes, drawing on institutional data and alumni feedback. UMW’s placement at 84th reflects the strength of its academic curriculum, […]
Jaguars President Mark Lamping & Mayor Donna Deegan Unveil Jaguars' New Business Headquarters
Jaguars President Mark Lamping and Jacksonville Mayor Donna Deegan speak to the media to provide a detailed overview of the Jaguars' new business headquarters. They discuss the vast improvements to the office space as well as the other businesses that wil
Crowds fill 14th Annual St. Joseph’s Day Festival
The 14th Annual St. Joseph’s Day Festival hosted by the Ocean City (Md.) Sons & Daughters of Italy Lodge is in the books with another success, as demonstrated by the
Freddie Freeman might hit 5th against some left-handed pitchers
Whether it’s the Teoscar Tax or the Smith Levy, Freeman hasn’t batted lower than 4th since 2016
Studio Entertainment: The Waddington Brothers
Bismarck, ND (KXNET) — The Waddington Brothers are performing at the Belle Mehus in Bismarck, April 24th at 7:30 pm. Tickets are on sale now and you can find them online by going to bismarcke…
Goodyear 400 Live Updates, Leaderboard: Will Tyler Reddick Win 4th Race This Season?
Follow along here for live updates from Sunday's Goodyear 400.
Paxton Aaronson scores twice to propel Rapids to 4-1 victory over Sporting KC
Paxton Aaronson scored a goal in each half, Wayne Frederick's first career goal was the go-ahead score and the Colorado Rapids rolled to a 4-1 victory over Sporting Kansas City on Saturday night. Aaronson gave Colorado (3-2-0) the lead in the 12th minute, but Shapi Suleymanov scored for the first time this season — in the 44th — to pull Sporting KC (1-3-1) even. The tie lasted until the second minute of stoppage time when Frederick scored unassisted for a 2-1 lead at halftime.
Sharing the power of science through storytelling
On March 24th, Yale School of Public Health researchers, staff, and students — along with residents from the greater New Haven community — will gather at East
Duke Basketball Toughness Yields Program's 24th ACC Tournament Crown
The 2025-26 Duke basketball team secured Jon Scheyer's third ACC Tournament championship as head coach.
Polly Baca elected to DNC
Forty-Five Years Ago This Week: After her loss to Republican U.S. Rep. Hank Brown the previous year in the race for the 4th Congressional District, state. Sen Polly Baca-Barragan, D-Thortnon, was elected as one of the three vice-chairs of the Democratic National Committee. “It was exciting but a lot of hard work,” Baca-Barragan said. “I […]
NYT Connections Sports Edition hints and answers for March 13: Tips to solve Connections #536
Everything you need to solve Connections Sports Edition #536.
Chattanooga Tourism Co. addresses concerns as county looks to shift funds to sports
TheChattanooga Tourism Company is responding to concerns that were raised during a vote by Hamilton County commissioners tomove thousands of dollars away from
Trump-endorsed Republican Clay Fuller to face Democrat Shawn Harris in runoff to replace Marjorie Taylor Greene, CNN projects
Republican Clay Fuller will face Democrat Shawn Harris in a runoff to replace former GOP Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene in Georgia’s 14th Congressional District, CNN projects.
Live Results: Georgia's 14th Congressional District special election
With top candidates including Republicans Clay Fuller and Colton Moore and Democrat Shawn Harris, this round of voting could be only the first step in an elections marathon in northwest Georgia.
Patrick Fisher: The state is turning art into business
Pennsylvania’s official arts agency, long known as the Pennsylvania Council on the Arts (PCA), has been rebranded as Pennsylvania Creative Industries....