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Now What? With Carbon Pricing Eroded and Pipeline Politics Advancing, Here Are the Pathways for Climate Success
At the end of a whirlwind week of news on carbon pricing and electricity strategy, capping a madcap year of pretty much non-stop, dramatic change, the word across much of Canada’s climate and energy transition community is that climate policy in this country has been shredded. Eviscerated. Hit with a sledgehammer by policy rollbacks that have pushed the country’s 2050 net zero target “well out of reach”. That means it’s never been more important to look for the rays of hope and glimmers of possibility. To glimpse the seeds of the next set of strategies to get Canada’s climate pollution under control and the country into the accelerating global dash away from fossil fuels. And then, once we’ve spotted those possibilities, get on with the hard, day-to-day slog of trying to make them a reality. Nothing takes away from the frustration and the deep disappointment so many climate and energy hawks are expressing, the sense of betrayal by the author of Value(s) and the former UN special envoy for climate action and finance. But we knew two things as the week drew to a close. We’re looking at the world as it most definitely is. And we don’t get to give up finding the pathways to confront climate change and deliver faster, deeper carbon cuts that leave no one else behind. So really, the first question we all have to ask ourselves is: What’s next? Subscribe All the Oxygen in the Room The outpouring of anger and grief over the carbon pricing deal between Prime Minister Mark Carney and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has been absolutely understandable. So much of the climate community poured years, more than a decade, into dragging the current federal pricing regime across the finish line, then defending it from a deluge of three-syllable rhymes after the Trudeau government proved utterly incapable of delivering its own message. The policy foisted on us by neo-classical economists took up all the oxygen in the room, burned through years of climate response time that we won’t get back, while cornering climate hawks into the position that the best response to the crisis of our lifetimes is a new tax…in an era of historic anti-tax sentiment. I mean, really—what could possibly have gone wrong? Against that history, let’s appreciate columnist Max Fawcett’s point that even a modest carbon pricing agreement with a government as off-the-wall libertarian/conspiracist as Danielle Smith’s—those adjectives are mine, not Max’s—is a win worth savouring (as long as Smith keeps her promises for a change). But part of living in the world as it is (no, I’m not letting that go) is to be clear-headed about what we can and can’t control. And one thing we get to decide, after seeing this week’s carbon price festivities take up all the oxygen yet again, is whether we want to keep letting that happen. Particularly when success down that road depends on a factor that no one with a climate agenda can control or influence—a provincial carbon pricing mechanism that has been manipulated and eroded beyond its lowest possible denominator. Thankfully, that’s not the way it has to go. Not when we have so many other powerful, practical tools at our disposal, including the ones still available to us through this abominable Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between Canada and Alberta. Tools In Our Toolbox When I started roughing out this list, I didn’t expect it to grow to nearly a dozen bullet points. It’s probably still incomplete. Some of the greatest hits in today’s climate solutions toolbox include: • No Carbon Capture, No Pipeline: On Friday, Prime Minister Mark Carney explicitly stated that there’s been no change to the MOU provision that there will be no West Coast pipeline without an industry commitment to build its massive, $16.5-billion carbon capture and storage (CCUS) hub in Northern Alberta, and vice versa. The two megaprojects were joined at the hip when the MOU was signed Nov. 27, and the implementation agreement this week affirmed that they still are. A parade of independent analysts have spent years pointing to the economic and technical flaws in CCUS, while the industry kept postponing its investment decision until it could arm-twist the government for more “clarity” (by which it meant even more lavish taxpayer subsidies) on the project. Now the industry itself is running away from the CCUS hub and insisting the pipeline should proceed without it, but Carney doesn’t seem to be budging from a central tenet of the MOU to which Smith has signed on. • No Subsidies, No Investors: Climate analysts and advocates have quite rightly been hammering away at Carney and his team, insisting that any new capacity the industry wants to build must proceed without new subsidies. The government has responded with a growing collection of funding and financing mechanisms for the very wide menu of industrial development and nation-building projects they say they want to take on, and that menu always includes fossil fuel infrastructure. But it’s hard to see how even the combined fiscal clout of the federal and supportive provincial governments will deliver the financial backing private investors would need when the business case for new fossil fuel development is evaporating before their eyes. Particularly when… • No Market, No Demand, No Investors: As our friend Markham Hislop at Energi Media (our apparently sleepless friend, given the massive volume of great material he’s been churning out) points out this morning, the biggest vulnerability in any pipeline deal is the assumption that Asian buyers will want the oil or liquefied natural ga that our fossil industry is so keen to send them. Hislop writes in part: Ottawa and Alberta are effectively betting that countries like China and India will continue increasing oil imports for decades as their economies grow and energy consumption rises. That assumption underpins the entire economic rationale for expanding oil sands production and building billions of dollars in new export infrastructure. But Asian energy systems are changing rapidly… China, India, South Korea, and other major hydrocarbon importers are now investing hundreds of billions of dollars into electricity systems built around wind, solar, batteries, nuclear, hydro, and expanded transmission infrastructure. Domestic “energy sovereignty” is increasingly replacing the old energy-security model based on stable oil and gas imports. Those investments are expected to sharply slow oil demand growth and eventually reverse it, even as overall energy consumption continues rising. There are also refining constraints. Many Asian refineries and petrochemical complexes are already optimized to process discounted heavy crude from the Middle East and Latin America. That raises serious questions about how much additional Canadian bitumen Asian markets can absorb at profitable prices. Small wonder that there’s still no private sector investor for the project, despite Smith’s government desperately beating the bushes to put together a deal. For now, Alberta is acting as proponent and covering early start-up costs for a pitch to the federal Major Projects Office, which could actually turn into the next tough hurdle for Smith and her pipeline to jump. • Canada Day Looms: How ironic that Canada’s birthday this year could become a major chokepoint for the provincial premier who’s been working so diligently to tear the country apart! The July 1 target date for Alberta’s pipeline proposal is baked into the MOU, was reaffirmed by the implementation plan, but it hadn’t dawned on me that it cuts both ways. As one very smart colleague wrote in an email yesterday, “they’ve thrown the ball into Alberta’s court to get the project proposal on the table really quickly and to have to do a whole pile of work to put together a massive, complicated project that would typically take years to assemble, and they’ve given them weeks to do it.” That makes July 1 a looming deadline that Smith won’t be able to run away from politically, especially with the separatists in her party and her caucus breathing down her neck. (See previous ref to off-the-wall.) But if Alberta comes in with a sloppy, incomplete submission, even after Carney bent over backwards to simplify the application process and the rules that govern it, it may be harder for the province or the industry to blame Ottawa and insist on the faster process they claim their investors are demanding. (Oh, wait—which investors would those be??) • We’ll See You In Court (Then We’ll See You Again): If Carney did cave, that would be just one more reason for Indigenous and other affected communities to take the government and the process to court—Just as Alberta First Nations did, successfully, in response to Smith’s half-baked separation referendum. Veterans of the Harper era have been warning that a shoddy process around fossil fuel infrastructure or other major projects will be a recipe for the very delays that process seeks to avoid. And now more than ever, with renewable energy and energy storage eating fossil fuels’ lunch in import markets around the world, a delayed pipeline or LNG terminal may be as good as a cancelled one. • Charged Up, Ready to Go: With its goal of doubling Canada’s electricity supply to meet a doubling of demand by 2050, the national electricity strategy that Carney unveiled Thursday has a lot to like. With its explicit language about speeding the shift from fuels to more efficient and affordable electricity, global investment and deployment patterns that already favour that shift, an emerging bidirectional power grid, the role of front-line options like rooftop solar and heat pumps, the emergence of electric vehicles as behind-the-meter energy storage, and the domestic jobs and manufacturing to make it all happen, the document doubles down on the essential cornerstone of a faster shift off fossil fuels. The strategy envisions a more prominent role for gas and nuclear power. But some of those provisions were already in the Clean Electricity Regulations that climate hawks are now fighting so hard to defend, inserted as a compromise in a futile attempt to mollify the industry and its political representatives in Alberta and Saskatchewan. But once again, gas will be a tougher sell when it’s more expensive and now so much more unpredictable than the clean alternatives. The new nuclear technologies are still speculative and deeply vulnerable to cost overruns. Increasingly, utilities, developers, and investors know it. Carney declared Thursday that “it doesn’t do us good to be sitting in court all the time with provinces. It doesn’t do us good to be talking past each other. What does do us good is to come together with specific projects.” There are no guarantees, but so much of the language and narrative-building in the electricity strategy suggests the lion’s share of those projects will be renewable. • The Party Has Already Started: The electricity strategy only rarely digs down to specific projects, but provinces representing three-quarters of Canada’s population are already embracing a faster transition. Hydro-Québec is working on a 10-year, $185-billion renewable energy and grid buildout by 2035. Ontario recently brought 10 provinces and territories together in a National Energy Corridor Agreement to boost interprovincial and -territorial transmission infrastructure. And the MOU implementation agreement commits Alberta to facilitate investment in renewable energy projects, a big step back from its continuing, punitive restrictions on renewables development. The electricity strategy envisions much of the financing and infrastructure that will be needed to pull those advances together into an integrated whole. • Delivering on Affordability: The MOU implementation plan has little or nothing to say about affordability (are you surprised?), but the electricity strategy does, with a top-line pledge to reduce home energy costs for seven out of 10 Canadian households by 2050, a total saving of $15 billion across the board. It’s just a start, but it puts affordability on the government’s narrative map. If they’re serious and deliberate about patching together a least-cost energy strategy, it’ll have little if any room for oil, gas, or nuclear—not with powerful evidence, for example, that electricity prices are higher when those prices are set by gas. • Smith Proves that Canada Works: By signing a deal that makes it harder to claim the federal government is blocking a new pipeline, Smith has helped prove Carney’s constant anti-separatist refrain that “Canada works”—incurring the rage, no doubt, of her own political base. Canada also needs to work for anyone who depends on a clean environment, healthy and thriving ecosystems, and safe, stable climate. But with Smith and her separatist constituents setting up as a fifth column for annexation by Donald Trump’s United States, let’s set aside any notion that 51st state status for Canada is a recipe for anything other than climate disaster (and so much else). Resisting and withstanding Trump (just 170 more sleeps until mid-term elections, which is a damn sight better than the 730 we started with) doesn’t mean a free pass for a pipeline, but we can still appreciate it that keeping Canada whole and sovereign is still Carney’s Job One. • The Words Not Spoken: Apart from a commitment to export a million barrels of “low-emission” Alberta bitumen per day (memo to Smith and Carney: You realize that that’s less than the industry is already exporting??), the MOU implementation plan says nothing about the international trade and economic sovereignty deals that Carney has been travelling the world to negotiate. It didn’t have to. Carney doesn’t need permission from Danielle Smith, her American enablers, or her separatist allies to continue building the alliances that will ratchet down our economic dependency on our unstable, unreliable neighbour to the south. But every connection he builds with countries outside North America helps align our economy and our future with a faster shift off fossil fuels. Little if any of this was on our bingo cards a year or two ago. But it’s the pathway that has opened up to us. And if it gives Canada any climate or energy gains at all in an era still dominated by Trump and his increasingly ridiculous tariffs, his loutish trade negotiations and his continuing annexation threats, we have to take the wins. Not least because they’ll be the point of departure for what we can achieve in 2027, 2029, and beyond, as Trump’s grip and this era begin to loosen and then fade. What is Carney Doing? If this line of thought is right—and it’s a possibility, not a prediction—it means that Carney’s actions and decisions are largely about buying time. Time for Trump’s power to wane. Time for Alberta’s separatist/conspiracist virus to spread, mutate, die out, or at least die back, with help from a vaccine of federal steadiness and calm (appropriate enough, for a movement populated largely by vaccine deniers) that no conspiracy theory can dismiss. And time for the government’s trade and investment agenda to deliver results—even knowing that some of those results will bring impacts that front-line communities will not and should not accept. In the immediate moment, none of this changes the way the wider climate community has to respond, from campaigners to investors to front-line practitioners. All of our voices are still essential. But those voices will be stronger and more confident if we have a clearer sense of the brutal game we’ve been pulled into, and a plausible path (or two it three) for playing it to the win we need. This conversation also underscores our biggest task for the remaining years of what was supposed to be the “decisive” decade for climate response: if we can shift the energy narrative in Canada, make it a mainstream view that the country’s preoccupation with oil and gas has us falling farther behind a changing world, we’ll see far better results in the 2030s and beyond. For many veteran climate advocates, taking on that part of the fight will begin with recognizing that most of our friends and family, neighbours and colleagues already understand that climate change is real and right in front of us: they’re looking away and staying silent because they don’t have what climate communicator Katharine Hayhoe calls “efficacy”. As Hayhoe recently pointed out in a feature interview with The Energy Mix, it amounts to science denial to keep hammering away at the dire news about global warming without also helping audiences understand what they can do about it, with multiple studies telling us why that won’t work. Far better to open those conversations with the dominant crises like energy security, food security, emergency preparedness and business continuity, affordability, and financial security that have knocked climate change far lower on the list of public priorities, and will likely keep it there. We Knew This Would Happen Climate hawks have always known this day would come. For decades, we warned that everyone had to pay attention to climate change right now, because it would be much tougher to respond once the crisis itself started affecting our daily lives. We were right, and here we are. But now, thanks to decades of hard work, communities and countries have an alternative to doubling down on fossil fuels. “In 10 years everyone will have ‘always known’ that solar and batteries were going to win,” Morgan Solar Executive Chair Mike Andrade writes on LinkedIn. With the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz roiling energy priorities around the world, Canada and the United States are among the shrinking number of countries that are still very keen on fossil fuel development. Understanding that gap is a first, essential step in spotting the opportunities ahead, and averting the deep economic as well as environmental and social risk we face if we don’t seize them. Thanks for reading The Energy Mix Weekender! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support our work. Subscribe Mitchell Beer traces his background in renewable energy and energy efficiency back to 1977, in climate change to 1997. Now he and the rest of the Energy Mix team scan 1,200 news headlines a week to pull together The Energy Mix and The Energy Mix Weekender. Chart of the Week BYD Eyes 20 Dealership Locations After Canada Greenlights Chinese EV Imports ‘Sledgehammer’ Carbon Price Deal Boosts Emissions by 230Mt, Aims for Fall 2027 Pipeline Approval ‘Worse Than Harper’: Regulatory Rollback Would Stop Canada from Assessing Project Impacts, Critics Warn Electricity Strategy Aims for Doubling by 2050, Allows ‘Flexibility’ for Gas Power Plants Opposition Mounts as O’Leary’s Data Centre Approved in Drought-Stricken Utah Diluted Carbon Price Misses ‘Reality of the World We’re In’, Could Impede Diversified Trade: Climate Institute $200B in Clean Energy Investment Will Need On-Time Delivery, Reliable Policies, Trade Association Says ‘Sovereign Pipeline’: CEO Pitches to Keep Trans Mountain in Government Hands What a Supercharged El Niño Could Mean for Canada Canada’s future is electric, and here’s how a power grid superhighway would get us there (Toronto Star) The Perilous Waters of Hecate Strait (Globe and Mail) Saudi Aramco profits jump despite conflict in Middle East (The Guardian) Farmers confront rising cost of fertilizer and fuel as spring seeding under way (Canadian Broadcasting Corporation) Clarkson forecasts 24% decline in offshore oil, gas capital expenditures (Oil & Gas Journal) Pipe Dreams: How Oil and Gas Fail to Deliver Economic Development in Africa (Oil Change International) Developing countries must hold the pen to script the fossil fuel transition (Climate Home News) Iran war threatens the dream of a post-oil economy in the Gulf (Washington Post) U.S. Oil, Gas Work Force Hits Lowest Level Since 2022 (Rigzone) Why Polestar Is Doubling Down on Net Zero as Rivals Pull Back on EVs (Bloomberg) Why this Michigan utility plans to sell its hydro dams for $13 (E&E News/Politico) Levees can no longer save New Orleans (Vox)
When should you get a mammogram? Conflicting advice makes it hard to know
Deciding when to get a routine mammogram is confusing. Guidelines disagree on whether to begin at age 40, 45 or 50, and whether a yearly or every-other-year scan is best.
Chartbook 449: Voldemort on Threadneedle street. The Bank of England and the "haunted house" of English politics.
Imagine the scene: In some Harry Potter version of 21st-century London, a group of deathless UK Treasury officials gathered from across the last century huddle over warm pints and glasses of Chardonnay. Around the table there are officials from the 1920s, the 1930s, the 1970s, 2022 and today. Inevitably, in May 2026, the subject of conversation is the disintegration of the current Labour government. Despite its huge majority in parliament, it has been reduced to tatters by catastrophic local election result. These exposed the fact that rather than having a government with a clear popular majority, the UK is like most other modern societies divided into 5 segments each of which commands between 26 and 16 percent of the vote. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the leadership at Nos 10 and 11 Downing Street - where the Prime Minister and the Chancellor (Treasury Secretary) work - seem paralyzed. They are caught between mounting discontent over unfairness and the cost of living, and tough fiscal strictures that push them into making unpopular spending decisions. In the London pub, the Treasury officials from across the ages, can barely hide their satisfaction at the latest display of democratic politics caught in the vice-grip of financial logic. “Remember the mur d’argent and the banker’s ramp?” “Just like yesterday!” There are smirks around the table. Then the representative of 2026 pipes up: “One thing you have to say about the current lot (referring to the latest hapless Labour government), you don’t have to teach them about the bond market!” There is a murmur of ascent from the Treasury Mandarins. The trauma of the fiscal crisis of September-October 2022 sits deep. Back then, in the final stages of Tory decay, a ‘mini budget’ that challenged fiscal orthodoxy led to a brief but fierce panic in one of the oldest government bond markets in the world (aka gilt market). Now all you have to do is to mention the “bond market” to hush debate. [ Paul Mason@paulmasonnews In the name of public service, and as ex-economics editor of BBC Newsnight, I offer to do a zoom call, tonight, with any Labour MP who wants to understand why bond markets do not "fall into line" with governments. 1/ 3:57 PM · May 12, 2026 · 466K Views 224 Replies · 674 Reposts · 3.93K Likes ](https://x.com/paulmasonnews/status/2054229532404519082?s=20) “And the funny thing is”, the young man in the huddle continues, “they don’t even want to talk about … ”. There is a sudden hush. Significant looks are exchanged around the table. About? One of the senior figures puts down his glass with a decisive “clink”. He-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named has entered their thoughts. Meanwhile, a few miles away in a grubby pub in Bloomsbury, two conspirators from the camp of Critical Macrofinance huddle over cans of low-alcohol IPA. They look at each other and blurt out loud: “The Bank!” “Everyone in the bloody Labour party is talking about the bond market. But why aren’t they even mentioning … the Bank of England!?” “Why is no one talking about Voldemort?” In Paul Mason’s blogpost, after much chest-thumping about basic fiscal logic, the basic point about the Bank of England is buried in the fine print at #3 in his list of suggestions as to what a radical Labour government might actually be able to do! [ Conflict & Democracy Down with the bond market! Down with gravity! It may seem unfair to focus on Labour MP Paula Barker for her off-the-cuff assertion that the bond market would have to “fall in line” with Andy Burnham, should he replace Keir Starmer as prime minister. But Burnham himself told the New Statesman that Labour had to “get beyond this thing of being in hock to the bond markets… Read more 2 days ago · 100 likes · 3 comments · Paul Mason ](https://htsf.substack.com/p/down-with-the-bond-market-down-with?utm_source=substack&utm_campaign=post_embed&utm_medium=web) Back in Bloomsbury they shake their heads and ask: “Didn’t we learn anything from the Eurozone crisis?” Meanwhile, as if summoned to the conversation by some higher force, the “pink pages” announce: “The days of ultra-cheap government borrowing have come to an end” and Martin “Whizzard” Wolf publishes the graph of the season Look at the UK in 2026, perilously positioned on the upper edge of the pack. No wonder no one in London needs any lessons about the “bond market”. But, look again. Imagine how they feel in Rome. What is London’s nightmare in 2026? The nightmare is that you end up like Italy in the early 2010s during the Eurozone crisis. Once comfortably situated in the middle of the pack, watching with horror as your ten-year yields explode to 7 percent and “spreads” become a national nightmare. One of the largest economies in Europe, a founding member of the euro, stigmatized. But the message of the Italian experience is ambiguous. After all, the stigma didn’t last. In 2026, Italy borrows at rates lower not only than the UK but the US. The US, which, as everyone knows, enjoys the “exorbitant privilege” of being the issuer of reserve, safe asets. What kind of magic is this? How did Italy, in the space of fifteen years, go from being good, to bad and back again? Which brings us back to our dissident friends in their Bloombury boozer and their memories of the Eurozone crisis. Italy never was Britain - with its ongoing fiscal deficits. Without interest payments, on primary balance, from 2000 to 2020 Italy ran a tight fiscal ship. Even in 2008 it barely went into deficit and when it was being put on the rack in the early 20210s its primary surplus matched that of austere Germany. So, what happened? How did it end up stigmatized? Of course Italian politics didn’t help. Berlusconi was at the helm and he had legal issues. But amongst friends in the Bloomsbury pub, Berlusconi is a sideshow, the name we whisper to each other is “Trichet”. From 2004 to 2011 the ECB was headed by Jean-Claude Trichet, ex of the French Treasury, more German than the Germans. After 2009 as the news of the Greek fiscal disaster broke, the European bond markets wento into panic mode and Trichet began a brutal game of cat and mouse. Between 2009 and 2011, Trichet intervened in the bond market to help, only when he thought he had compliance with austerity. When he thought they were uncooperative, he withdrew. In the summer of 2011, he even made direct suggestions to his Italian counterparts in Rome, as to how Italy should be governed. It was this cat and mouse game that drove the bond markets crazy and exposed Italy to a violent squeeze. When Mario Draghi took over the ECB at the end of 2011 and declared “whatever it takes”, the pressure on Italy, gradually eased. It is that starring role that has made Draghi into the towering figure in European politics that he remains today. So now you see why voices in London hush when it comes to the Bank of England. “The bond market” isn’t an irresistible objective force like the weather or an avalanche. It can appear like that. But that depends on the way it is being handled, or not handled by the central bank. Which is why the silence about the Bank of England in London right now is so significant. If you think this all sounds a bit fishy, coming from a left-liberal Keynesian like myself, well, let me introduce you to Robin Brooks, who, to put it mildly, plays on a different quidditch team to me. Here, from the position of a fiscal hawk is Robin’s celebratory account of the Bank of England’s role since 2022; In October 2022, at the height of the bond market blow-up in the UK, something incredible happened. Governor Andrew Bailey told British pension funds the Bank of England would end its support program for the country’s fragile gilt market, drawing a line under how much help the central bank was willing to give to exposed pension funds and - implicitly - the government. By the end of that week, Kwasi Kwarteng - the finance minister - had resigned. Prime Minister Liz Truss would soon follow. This episode is so incredible because it contrasts with what happened in the Euro zone earlier that year. Bond markets in Spain and Italy were under pressure amid high inflation and rising interest rates. In the middle of this, Mario Draghi - Italy’s Prime Minister - resigned, compounding pressure on bond markets of high-debt countries on the Euro periphery. Unlike the Bank of England, the ECB caved. It bought Italian and Spanish government bonds in an effort to cap yields and introduced a new tool that signaled to markets it might do such caps more frequently going forward. Faced with pressure on bond markets, the ECB capitulated to political pressure from high-debt countries like Italy and Spain. The Bank of England stood its ground and toppled the Truss government. This kind of thing has long-lasting consequences. It means markets price a higher probability of yield caps in the Euro zone, which keeps Italian and Spanish yields artificially low, while markets feel free to push up UK yields without fear of central bank intervention. As I flagged in yesterday’s post, this means you really can’t compare UK yields to those of other high-debt countries. The UK looks worse, but only because its central bank isn’t interfering with markets. There’s more to this than just that 2022 episode. The Bank of England has also been much more aggressive in its quantitative tightening (QT) than other central banks. If one motivation for quantitative easing (QE) is to lower bond yields - especially longer-dated ones - then it stands to reason QT pushes yields up. The left chart above shows a four-quarter moving average of UK government debt issuance (black line) in percent of GDP and which sectors absorb this issuance, including the Bank of England (blue bars). The right chart above compares the Bank of England’s accumulation or run-off of government bonds (blue line) with that of other central banks, where this blue line is the same as the blue bars in the left chart. The Bank of England was quicker and more aggressive than other central banks in downsizing its bond holdings, so UK yields will have risen more than elsewhere also for this reason, not just because of Governor Andrew Bailey’s remarks in October 2022. Back in October 2025, after a conversation in New York with friends in British politics, my sense of dysphoria was such that I raised the issue of the Bank of England openly in the FT Since 2008, the UK has slid into a deep economic and political predicament. Growth has stagnated to a degree far worse even than in the 1970s. The Tory leadership’s wager on the Brexit referendum spectacularly backfired, leaving the UK isolated from Europe and at the mercy of its special relationship with the US, many of whose political class regard the UK as a basket case. After years of austerity, the Labour party lurched to the left and then back to the centre. The Tory party has been eclipsed by the populist nationalism of Reform. Any British government should be worrying first and foremost about how to restart growth. Instead, Keir Starmer is beset by shades of the gilt market panic triggered by the Liz Truss government in 2022. The debt level is higher than in recent years, but there is no cause for panic. UK debt is at far from critical levels and of long duration. Whether you want to “take back control” or launch progressive economic policy, a democracy dogged by fear of bond market vigilantes is unhealthy. In a country that is a monetary sovereign, this climate points to one thing: a disconnect between the government and the central bank. Since 1997, the independence of the Bank of England has become a sacred cow. But independence is what you make of it. And in the wake of the gilt market crisis of September 2022, relations between the Bank of England and the UK government need a reset. In normal times, there is no doubt that an inflation-targeting independent central bank can serve a country well. But since 2008, the UK and other advanced economies have not had the luxury of such simple problems. To their credit, central bankers around the world have not stood on orthodoxy. After 2008, the US Federal Reserve rescued the global banking system and, through quantitative easing, it stabilised the Treasury market in the face of huge deficits. In Europe, things were trickier. Both the Bank of England under Mervyn King and Jean-Claude Trichet’s European Central Bank played cat and mouse with national governments. This was a high stakes wager that between 2010 and 2012 escalated bond market tension and triggered a disastrous turn to austerity. Shaken by the impact of those shocks, their successors, Mark Carney and Mario Draghi adopted a more protective stance (assuming you were not the government of Greece). Recall that Draghi’s legendary slogan, “Whatever it takes”, was uttered to face down the City of London’s bond vigilantes. In 2015, Draghi launched QE — financial repression by another name. In 2016, Carney used the authority of the Bank of England to stabilise markets following the vote for Brexit, an exemplary demonstration of how central banks can underpin democratic choice, even when those choices are wrong headed. All these were independent central bankers steeped in the best practice of the 1990s, who recognised that historic crises demanded radical action. It was the price surge of 2021-2023 that poisoned the atmosphere. Though the shock came mainly from the supply side, central banks ended up in the dock. Nowhere more so than in the UK. The Bank of England reacted with aggressive normalisation. Faced with a cost of living crisis, the governor called for workers to accept real wage cuts. In early 2022, as gas prices were at record levels and Russia’s army was poised to invade Ukraine, the Bank adopted a stringent programme of quantitative tightening, elevating interest rates. When the Truss government got itself in trouble, the Bank took almost a week to come to the rescue. Rather than enacting a charade of normality, it is time to recognise that in 2025 the UK faces a period of historic transition. To meet this challenge, what is needed is a new concordat with the Bank. This should not ignore inflationary pressures or the long-run trajectory of debt, but should affirm the priority of reviving investment-led growth. One could follow Donald Trump in demanding interest rate cuts. The Bank could shadow the ECB in its commitment to capping Eurozone yields. But the top priority should be to lay the ghost of September 2022. The Bank’s slowing of QT last month was a concession. An immediate and complete end would send the right signal. Such a concordat will not by itself restore sanity to politics, solve the housing problem or rebuild the NHS. But it would help to lift the fear of bond market crisis, which is paralysing the effort by democratic politicians to answer the fundamental questions facing the nation. Now, that call for a new concordat between government and Bank of Englands seems more urgent than ever. The problem is that in October 2025, Starmer still had some authority. Today the government is in tatters. And when you are the “under the harrow” - to echo a phrase of Montagu Norman’s from the 1920s - it is the worst possible time to consider institutional change. To make general arguments at a time of crisis can only seem like special pleading rather than a general argument for long-term change. The same, unfortunately, is also true for the other basic institutional reform that Britain urgently needs i.e. the abolition of the out-dated first past the post electoral system and its replacement by a moderated form of proportional representation. And thirdly - whilst we are saying the quiet parts out loud - Britain needs to reopen the question of EU membership. What the local election results of 2026 show is that this remains a key issue. And what they also show is that there is a clear majority that would favor a return. Until these basic features of Britain’s political economy are addressed the country will carry on its politics as though in a haunted house, governed by governments that lack actual majorities, conjuring up false constraints whilst ignoring the real ones. This one is for DG and MI. I love writing the newsletter. If you enjoy it too and fancy buying me a coffee once a month, you know what to do. Click below! Subscribe
Protecting lives everywhere
In 2025, the WHO Health Emergencies Programme responded to a growing number of health emergencies driven by conflict, climate shocks and disease outbreaks, amid severe funding constraints. This report shows how WHO delivered life‑saving health services, supported countries to detect and control outbreaks, and helped maintain essential health care in some of the world’s most fragile settings
House Again Blocks War Powers Vote to Halt Iran Conflict
But two vulnerable Republicans joined Democrats in the effort to force President Trump to win authorization from Congress, in the latest sign of G.O.P. jitters over the war.
Pageantry meets politics: Xi’s stark Taiwan warning counters Trump’s optimism
Xi warns Trump that mishandling Taiwan could spark U.S.-China conflict; trade, Iran crisis, and economic ties also dominate Beijing summit.
Indianapolis public health office audit referred to state for examination
The city's Office of Audit and Performance has given the report to the Indiana State Board of Accounts, highlighting "high risk" factors including conflicts of interest and missing documentation for most contracts.
How Family Employment Policies Protect Business Legacy
Family employment policies balance loyalty with merit, preventing conflicts while safeguarding business health across generations
Donald Trump demands Xi Jinping ‘open’ China to US business
US president arrives in Beijing for two-day summit clouded by geopolitical tensions and conflict over trade and tech
Gilts Become ‘Half-Hour Trade’ on Politics, HSBC’s Kettner Says
(Bloomberg) -- The UK’s fractious politics is making investors wary of long-term wagers in the country’s gilt markets, according to HSBC Holdings Plc’s Max Kettner.Most Read from BloombergAmbani’s Cola War With Coke, Pepsi Spurs Fridge Bonanza in IndiaNvidia’s CEO Joins Trump in China With AI in the SpotlightInside a Year of Chaos and Conflict at Kevin Hart’s Media CompanyMamdani Scraps Property Tax Hike, Counts Second-Home Revenue“I’d love to buy them because obviously long-end yields are so en
Hegseth faces bipartisan grilling about weapons drawdown during the Iran war
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is facing tough questions from Republican and Democratic lawmakers about the Trump administration’s end game for the Iran war, the cost of the conflict and its
Trump Faces Emboldened Xi in China as Iran War Clips US Leverage
Donald Trump is expecting economic deals and a “wild” welcome this week in China. In reality, he’ll arrive facing an emboldened Xi Jinping, just as his own hand is constrained by the conflict in Iran.
Trump seeks to pause federal gas tax as prices soar amid Iran conflict
Congress would have to approve the proposal, and passing the savings on to drivers, rather than oil companies, would be difficult to enforce.
Trump’s role as LIV Golf host renews scrutiny over conflicts of interest
Experts are raising conflict-of-interest and ethical concerns after President Donald Trump hosted a LIV Golf event at his Virginia property this weekend, renewing scrutiny over whether the Trump family is financially benefiting from his time in office while supporting a golf league backed by a government accused of human rights abuses.
Steve Kerr reportedly agrees to 2-year deal with Warriors after exit rumors, remains highest-paid coach in NBA
Steve Kerr had reportedly been conflicted about his future with the Warriors for weeks.
Business Lookahead: Trump on Tour
STORY: From Trump's trip to China, to a slew of new U.S. data releases, these are the stories to watch in business and finance in the coming week. :: Trump goes to Beijing U.S. President Donald Trump visits Beijing on Thursday and Friday.It will be his first visit to China in eight years.He'll try to lock in the trade truce agreed to in October in South Korea, and avoid a rerun of the tit-for-tat tariff battle that he set off a year ago.Fresh trade data should offer a reality check on whether a protectionist White House has managed to dent Americans' appetite for Chinese-made goods.:: Saudi Aramco posts resultsThe world's biggest exporter of crude oil, Saudi Aramco, reports first-quarter results on Sunday.The numbers are expected to show the pain from the more than two-month-old Iran war.This comes as efforts to end the conflict appeared to stall after the U.S. and Iran traded fire in recent days, with some of the biggest flare-ups in fighting in and around the Strait of Hormuz since a ceasefire began a month ago.:: U.S. economic dataA bunch of new data should give a clearer view of inflation in the U.S.Tuesday's April consumer price index is expected to rise 0.6% according to a Reuters poll.Prices at the pump are likely to loom large in the numbers.Producer price data for April on Wednesday is another inflation checkpoint after the Fed’s last meeting exposed a more hawkish tilt among some policymakers who are increasingly uneasy about price pressures.And retail sales figures on Thursday should show whether higher gas prices and other costs are starting to bite into household spending.
Small businesses in N.C. feeling support amidst economic uncertainty
Small businesses are seeing higher costs from global conflict, but many say local community support is helping them see growth.
Lawyers for press dinner gunman seek to disqualify Pirro and Blanche from case citing their presence at event
The legal team of the man accused of opening fire at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner last month has asked the court to disqualify top Department of Justice officials from being involved in his case, arguing there is a conflict of interest because they were present during the incident.
Milwaukee doula program goes to contract model to improve availability
Doulas were previously on staff at the health department, where typical work hours conflicted with times they were needed by pregnant clients, according to the program manager.
Trump is trapped by his own strategy as he grapples for an exit in Iran
If words won wars, Donald Trump’s Iran conflict would have ended long ago.
Iran war strains global business travel, as companies adjust meeting plans
Global conflicts are causing some companies to examine their “duty of care” policies and could bring back more virtual meetings, the survey found.
Joint call by the President of the ICRC, the Director-General of WHO and the International President of MSF
Ten years ago, the UN Security Council unanimously adopted Resolution 2286 on health care in armed conflicts. The situation is even worse compared to 10 years ago. T
Trump Faces the Complicated Reality of a Costly, Unpopular War in Iran
President Trump’s predictions of a relatively short-term conflict with minimal economic consequences appear to be crumbling.
Beyond the Politics:The Human Cost Behind the Israel–Iran Conflict
TEL AVIV — The conflict between Iran, the U.S., and Israel remains volatile as Iran submits a new 14‑point peace proposal through Pakistan while warning that fighting may soon resume, with Iranian military officials saying the U.S. is not committed to agreements. President Donald Trump has expressed...
New Raiders QB Fernando Mendoza non-committal about visiting White House with Indiana teammates
Mendoza said that he "can't miss practice," and was unsure if he had a conflict. The Raiders' OTAs start a week after Indiana's visit.
Business Lookahead: Eyeing oil, US jobs, and European earnings
STORY: From high oil prices and the conflict in the Middle East to U.S. jobs data and corporate earnings, here’s what you need to watch in business and finance in the week ahead.:: Crude and currencyOil prices briefly topped $120 a barrel this week to hit their highest level since 2022 as the war with Iran enters a third month.While the U.S. and Iran face pressure to end a conflict that has shut the Strait of Hormuz, the world watches anxiously as the biggest-ever disruption to energy supplies unfolds.For each week the Strait is closed, keeping oil elevated, the greater the economic risks via higher inflation or weak growth or, for some, both. Oil importer Japan just intervened to prop up a yen that has been weakened by the conflict.A new month is now underway and some traders will be mindful of that old adage, "Sell in May and go away.":: Jobs gyrationsAs the U.S. economy grapples with fallout from the Middle East war, Wall Street's radar turns to Friday's April monthly payrolls report.The U.S. economy likely created 73,000 new jobs, economists polled by Reuters forecast. In March, payrolls increased by 178,000, the most since December 2024, but that followed a sharp decline in February.The U.S. employment data comes amid signs of hawkishness at the Federal Reserve, as Donald Trump pick Kevin Warsh prepares to take over as chair with the U.S. president keen on rate cuts.:: Starmer’s statusThursday's local elections in Britain, usually a non-event for investors, could move markets in a big way, with opinion polls pointing to a heavy defeat for Prime Minister Keir Starmer's Labour Party.A heavy defeat could spark more widespread demands for his dismissal among his own lawmakers and stoke expectations of a successor more willing to run looser budgets. That would bring more bad news for British bonds.::European earningsIt's a big week for European earnings with Shell and Commerzbank among those reporting.On aggregate, profits are expected to grow 3.2% in Q1, according to LSEG I/B/E/S. Under the surface, it's a little bit more complicated. Growth is expected to be driven by just three sectors: financials, tech and energy. The latter is seen as the biggest beneficiary of the Iran war due to higher oil and gas prices.But if the war, and energy surge, persist, the overall outlook for Europe's earnings could turn.
Trump says Iran conflict is ‘terminated’ as he hits congressional deadline
Trump’s statement came as the United States continues to enforce a naval blockade of Iran and as he declined to rule out additional strikes on the country.
As Iran War Reaches 60-Day Mark, Republicans in Congress Grow Impatient With Trump
Months into the operation and with midterms looming, some lawmakers are calling for Congress to restrain the president’s war power or set terms for bringing the conflict to a close.
What Businesses Are Saying: The Impact of the Conflict Has Been Limited ... For Now
Businesses reported limited impact from the Middle East conflict in the lead up to the April FOMC meeting, with consumers continuing to spend and more cost pressure and supply chain disruption still to come.
Poll: Trump’s Iran war reaches Iraq- and Vietnam-era disapproval levels
A Post-ABC-Ipsos poll shows most Americans call the military action a mistake, even as Republicans remain strongly supportive. Many fear the conflict will lead to a recession.
Trump is supposed to get Congress’ approval when the Iran war hits 60 days. Lawmakers can’t agree when that is.
A Vietnam-era law says Congress must sign off on the Iran war after the conflict hits the 60-day mark. The only problem: Lawmakers can’t agree when that deadline actually hits. And now they’ve left town.
Trump knew he would take a political hit for acting on Iran: Veteran
U.S. Army special forces veteran Jim Hanson gives expert analysis on the state of U.S.-Iran conflict while applauding President Donald Trump’s foreign policy efforts on ‘Hannity.’
How Prediction Markets are Colliding With California and National Politics
Prediction markets have exploded in recent years, with platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi allowing people to put real money on everything from sports outcomes to election results to armed conflicts overseas. Marisa, Scott and Guy discuss how these markets are influencing state and national politics. Then, they’re joined by Kate Knibbs, senior writer at WIRED, to understand who’s governing these platforms and how they’ve managed to flourish even in states where gambling is illegal. Check out
Hegseth says clock paused ahead of key date in Iran conflict
Friday marks a critical day in the two-month-old war.
Nationals get conflicting CJ Abrams trade deadline prediction
This is an odd pair of predictions for the Nationals.
The art of politics: how global conflicts are playing out in this year's Venice Biennale
Israel and Russia's return to the Biennale has sparked threats of disruption
The Political Transformation of Corporate America, 2001–2022 -
The Political Transformation of Corporate America, 2001–2022 By Reilly S. Steel, Columbia University This article reconciles conflicting views about the political landscape of corporate America with new data on the revealed political preferences of 97,469 [...]
“Political Disaster for Donald Trump”: Jeremy Scahill on Stalled U.S.-Iran Talks
Negotiations between the United States and Iran to end the war are at an impasse as the conflict enters its third month. The Wall Street Journal reported late Tuesday that Trump has told aides to prepare for an extended blockade of Iranian ports to ramp up the pressure on Tehran. Iran is saying it will enter into direct talks with the U.S. “when President Trump lifts what Iran considers to be the illegal military naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz,” says Drop Site News co-founder Jeremy Scahill. “Iran has maintained that it’s not shut down the strait, but that it’s just shut it down for any vessels that are linked to the U.S. war in any way.” Scahill says a disorganized Trump administration is pushing a “total propaganda narrative” that it has the upper hand in negotiations, while Iran believes it has the “three M’s” on its side: munitions, markets and the midterms.
Senate Republicans reject attempt to end Trump's blockade of Cuba
The vote on the war powers resolution showed how Republicans continue to stand behind Trump as he acts unilaterally to exert American force in a range of global conflicts, including Venezuela, Iran and Cuba.
Why China is surging its nuclear forces
For decades China kept a minimal nuclear force. Now it’s rapidly expanding under Xi Jinping. DW explores why Beijing is building a vast arsenal of missiles and warheads. What conflicts may China be preparing for?
Bickley: Suns' season ends with conflicting feelings
The Suns' playoff appearance in Year 1 showed Jordan Ott may have them on the right path, but the sweep at the hands of the Thunder shows they still have a long ways to go.
Rock Island alderman’s family business withdraws bid for city catering contract amid conflict concerns
Global consumer companies face pricing stress test from oil shock
The fragile demand recovery seen by consumer companies globally is at risk of getting stalled by chances of more prices hikes as a result of soaring energy and commodity costs due to the Middle East conflict.
Healing Divides in the Eastern Mediterranean: How Health Systems Can Become Bridges to Peace in Conflict Zones
Health systems, if deliberately designed, can help rebuild trust in societies fractured by war in the Eastern Mediterranean.
The Guardian view on Starmer’s Mandelson gamble: his political judgment faces scrutiny in pivotal week
Editorial: Conflicting accounts will be tested in parliament. The outcome may not be decisive, but risks reinforcing concerns about PM’s leadership
Fossil-Fuel Funded GOP Leaders Claim a Renowned Scientific Institution Has ‘Potential Conflicts of Interest’
Republican allies of the oil and gas industry question the objectivity of an independent report from the nation’s top science advisers on the harms of human-caused climate change.
German Business Outlook at Worst Since 2023 as War Hits ‘Hard’
Germany’s business outlook deteriorated more than expected, adding to fears that higher energy costs stemming from the Iran conflict will derail the country’s economic revival.
“Us versus them”: How political propaganda polarises beliefs without providing any news
Political polarisation is often attributed to misinformation, echo chambers, or biased news. But new experimental evidence suggests that merely making a social conflict salient – without providing any information at all – is enough to sharply increase disagreement on both factual and normative questions. This column discusses how politicians and media can ‘artificially’ amplify societal tensions by strategically choosing which conflicts to highlight, and why this mechanism is harder to counter than standard misinformation.
How the Iran War Is Morphing Into a Volatile Standoff in the Strait of Hormuz
The conflict has morphed into a volatile standoff in the Strait of Hormuz, as the economic costs mount and President Trump faces a political backlash at home.
Global business travel optimism drops sharply in Q1, GBTA survey shows
Pessimism among business travel professionals has nearly tripled since the start of the year amid concerns over geopolitical conflict. Weakened sentiment could impact U.S. hotels.
French Business Activity Sinks to 14-Month Low on Services
(Bloomberg)--French business activity shrank at the fastest pace in more than a year, driven by a slump in the services sector as the Iran conflict made consumers more cautious on spending.
State law conflict sees WIAA sink proposal to ban transgender students from girls’ sports
A proposal to bar transgender girls from participating in girls’ sports has failed for a second consecutive year in Washington, falling short of the supermajori
US burning through weapons in Iran it needs for China war
The US has heavily expended key munitions. It has enough for the Iran war but risks vulnerability in a future conflict with China, experts warn.
Cougar science sidelined as pressure takes over
Editor’s Note: This is the final part of a three-part series. By the time Washington’s cougar debate reached its peak intensity, the conflict was no longer limited to public meetings or policy discussions. It had infiltrated the Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife itself. What had started as pressure from outside — from parents, hunters,
Kayleigh McEnany: Politicians have been ‘lying to you’
‘Saturday in America’ host Kayleigh McEnany discusses the Democratic Party’s stance on the Iran conflict and President Donald Trump’s response on ‘Jesse Watters Primetime.’
Approval of Trump on economy falls in new AP-NORC poll, as Iran war drives up prices
The findings from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research show a president who is struggling with unfulfilled promises to tame inflation and testing Americans’ patience with a conflict in the Middle East that has dragged on longer than expected.
Pulitzer Prize winner shares historic nature of politics as U.S. celebrates 250th anniversary
Pulitzer Prize-winning historian and New York Times bestselling author Jon Meacham discussed the nature of American politics through pivotal moments in U.S. history. Meacham said that the nation was originally founded on the notion of politics as “an aspirational arena of contention,” where different interests were disputed before reaching a consensus. He added that conflicts regarding power and other matters are inevitable.
South African Business Optimism Wanes in March on Iran Conflict
South African business confidence moderated in March as the US-Israeli war with Iran roiled financial, commodity and foreign-exchange markets.
Trump tells Maria ‘deal will be signed tonight’ as tensions explode in Strait of Hormuz
Rep. Ro Khanna, D-Calif., joins ‘Mornings with Maria’ to debate the escalating U.S.-Iran conflict, clash over oil exports and gas prices, and challenge President Donald Trump’s strategy as tensions surge in the Strait of Hormuz.
M&C Saatchi predicts hit to sports and entertainment arms from Iran conflict
The advertising giant held off from handing shareholders a dividend as it battles ‘tough’ macroeconomic conditions.
UK's M&C Saatchi warns Mideast war could hit sport and entertainment business
British advertising group M&C Saatchi warned on Monday that the Middle East conflict is likely to significantly impact its sport, entertainment and consumer-facing business, while forecasting 2026 operating profit in line with market expectations.
UK's M&C Saatchi warns Mideast war could hit sport and entertainment business
British advertising group M&C Saatchi warned on Monday that the Middle East conflict is likely to significantly impact its sport, entertainment and consumer-facing business, while forecasting 2026 operating profit in line with market expectations.
New threats and tensions rattle Iran ceasefire and test peace push
The Iran ceasefire and expected peace talks this week are hanging by a thread as tensions boil over the strategic waterway that epitomizes Tehran’s new leverage and a conflict that critics warn has escaped President Donald Trump’s control.
Fed’s Beige Book reveals Iran conflict’s impact on business confidence
Former World Bank President David Malpass discusses economic uncertainty amid the Iran conflict, the state of the Federal Reserve and more on ‘Varney & Co.’
The Hard Truths Behavioral Science Must Face in Conflict Settings - by Britt Titus
Approximately 2 billion people live in conflict-affected areas. Yet most of the theories, experiments, and interventions developed in behavioral science are based on stable contexts.
4.5mm iPhone Ultra/Fold cases and "final design" renders leak; big MagSafe mystery
Leaked iPhone Ultra/Fold cases confirm a wider book-style foldable design for Apple’s 2026 flagship. However, the leaked images suggest a conflict between the device's ultra-thin 4.5mm chassis and MagSafe compatibility, as dummy units lack magnets while cases include them. Known iPhone Ultra/Fold features include a 7.8-inch display, A20 Pro chip, and a late 2026 release date.
Behind Trump’s Public Bravado on the War, He Grapples With His Own Fears
The president’s impulsive style has never been tested in a sustained military conflict, and he’s been ruminating on Jimmy Carter’s failure in Iran.
NFL will not investigate Patriots coach Mike Vrabel over photos with Dianna Russini
With questions about conduct and conflict of interest, Mike Vrabel will not face investigation related to the Dianna Russini photos.
Trump envoy faces 'sweeping' investigation over business ties, diplomatic role
Democratic U.S. Representative Jamie Raskin launched what he described as a "sweeping" investigation into U.S. President Donald Trump's envoy and son-in-law, Jared Kushner, over a potential conflict of interest, according to an April 17 press release. The inquiry focuses on Kushner's dual role as a diplomatic intermediary and head of a private equity firm, raising questions about whether his financial ties could influence U.S. foreign policy decisions. Kushner has played a central role in Trum
Every test at the US Army's mad science lab
As the military prepares for conflicts in harsher climates, the US Army's Natick Labs invests millions to improve what soldiers wear, eat, and carry.
Strait of Hormuz blockade ‘working to provide leverage,’ political strategist says
An ‘All-Star’ panel joins ‘Special Report’ to discuss the state of US-Iran negotiations and the impact of the conflict on gas prices and affordability.
Memory Wars: Facts, Disinformation, and the Politics of Remembrance
The 14th European Remembrance Symposium in Bratislava, Slovakia, on 27–29 May 2026, will explore how collective memory is shaped and weaponized in today’s geopolitical climate. Bringing together an illustrious line-up of experts, the event examines disinformation, identity, and the role of historical narratives in modern political conflict.
The gamble in Trump’s Iran blockade that could decide the war
President Donald Trump’s switch from kinetic to economic warfare with his blockade of Iran’s ships and ports is an attempt to end the conflict without a new US-Israeli onslaught.
Slovenia Plans Referendum on NATO Membership
Slovenia hopes to scale down involvement in international conflicts and avoid interference in foreign and diplomatic disputes.
SB 1397: Better Science = Better Policy
Managing California’s majestic mountain lion population, particularly in areas of conflict with areas where humans...
Parenting and Politics: How to Talk to Kids about War
Parenting in times of conflict is never simple. But it is also an opportunity to raise thoughtful, compassionate, and courageous children with a strong moral compass.
Roundup: Business optimism / Cleveland’s housing answer / America at 250
Slipping further: U.S. small business optimism fell for a third straight month in March, hitting its lowest level in nearly a year as the Iran conflict drove up energy costs and uncertainty. Owners reported weaker expectations for profits, sales and economic conditions, while plans for capital spending dropped sharply. Rising input costs are also prompting […]
Despite Israeli firepower, Netanyahu struggles for political gains in Iran war
The Iran war was meant to deliver a defining victory over Tehran that would secure Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's place in history. More than six weeks into the conflict, he has been unable to translate military might into political gain.
After three years of conflict, Sudan faces a deeper health crisis
14 April 2026, Geneva, Cairo, Port Sudan – Three years of war in Sudan have created the world’s largest humanitarian and displacement crisis, with devastating consequences for people’s health.While the situation is...
After three years of conflict, Sudan faces a deeper health crisis
Three years of war in Sudan have created the world’s largest humanitarian and displacement crisis, with devastating consequences for people’s health.
Event report: Exploring the potential and applications of citizen science in areas affected by armed conflicts
Report: the European Citizen Science Association’s new WG on citizen science in areas affected by armed conflicts' first in-person event.
Artificial sweeteners: Why the science war is raging on
Conflicting studies on artificial sweeteners are fuelling fresh debate across food and drink, as health risks, regulation and reformulation collide worldwide.
What Does Artificial Intelligence Really Mean for Global Politics?
As AI increasingly plays a central role in conflict and war, experts discuss its long-term impact on global politics.
Neandertals may have hunted and eaten outsiders, chilling cannibalism study finds
A cave in Belgium has revealed unsettling evidence that Neandertals selectively cannibalized outsiders, focusing on women and children. The victims weren’t from the local group and appear to have been treated like prey, with bones butchered for meat and marrow. This suggests the behavior wasn’t ritual, but practical—or possibly linked to intergroup conflict. The discovery paints a darker, more complex picture of Neandertal life during their final millennia.
Ken Bridges explores Roger Mills in Texas' Civil War efforts, politics
In his latest Texas history column, Ken Bridges explores the life and impact of Roger Mills - from Civil War battles to conflicts in U.S. politics.
Young Republicans more skeptical of Iran war, dividing Trump base
Even within Trump’s GOP base, cracks are showing when it comes to the Iran conflict. Younger Republicans are much less likely to support the war.
Artemis II was a product of politics. Then it sent us over the Moon
In both 1968 and 2026, a mission to the Moon offered a refreshing blast of positivity for a conflict-ridden world. So what's different now — and what do we really gain from this new moonshot, five decades after the first?
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
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