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WATCH LIVE: White House briefing with Rubio may address Vatican trip, Strait of Hormuz efforts
Secretary of State Marco Rubio will travel to Rome and Vatican City this week in a bid to ease rising tensions between Trump and Pope Leo XIV over U.S. policies, particularly the Iran war.
Scientists Discover Evolution’s 120-Million-Year-Old “Cheat Sheet”
A long-standing assumption about evolution is being challenged by new research showing that vastly different species can rely on the same genetic pathways to develop similar traits.
Trump’s gambit to move ships through the Strait of Hormuz tests the fragile ceasefire
President Donald Trump’s initiative to guide ships through the Strait of Hormuz was a high-stakes, high-risk attempt to jolt loose a resolution to the standoff that had come to define his war against Iran.
Fresh attacks in the Gulf spark fears of renewed war with Iran
A wave of fresh strikes on the UAE and Oman, along with reports of attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz, undermined confidence in the truce between the United States and Iran.
Apple Plans to Let Users Build Their Own Passes in iOS 27 Wallet App
(Bloomberg) -- Apple Inc. is preparing a new “Create a Pass” feature for its next major iPhone software update, allowing users to build and customize their own digital tickets and gift cards within the Wallet app.Most Read from BloombergChina’s Unprecedented Defiance of US Sanctions Triggers ShowdownFormer NYC Mayor Giuliani in Critical Condition, Trump SaysBeijing Tells China Firms to Ignore US Sanctions on RefinersSupertanker Appears to Have Crossed the Strait of HormuzUS Denies Iran Report Th
Trump ‘Wants Action,’ May Restart Iran War
While U.S. and Iran negotiations are still ongoing, the president’s intervention in the Strait of Hormuz could spark new tensions.
The Latest: Trump launches a new effort to reopen the Strait of Hormuz
U.S. forces have launched an effort to guide commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz, where hundreds have been stuck since the Iran war began.
With Scandals and Court Ruling, Democrats Have Big Problems Too | WSJ Politics Newsletter for May 4
Plus, the Secret Service director is facing some heat, and the U.S. plans to guide commercial ships out of the Strait of Hormuz
Trump: US to Escort Ships Through Strait of Hormuz
Trump described “Project Freedom”, as a humanitarian effort aimed at ensuring safe passage for ships trapped in restricted waters.
Trump says US will guide stranded ships out of Strait of Hormuz: 'Get on with their business'
TST Best Bets: May 3, 2026
After the Philadelphia 76ers became the 14th team to ever come back from a 3-1 lead to win the series, the Detroit Pistons enter Sunday on the brink of history themselves. Detroit looked to be in dire straits against the Orlando Magic, as their physical defense made for a very poor matchup with the Pistons’ lack of secondary offensive creators behind Cade Cunningham. However, aided by an untimely injury to Franz Wagner for the Magic, the Pistons have started to look like the 60-win team they wer
U.S. warns shipping firms over paying Iran to transit the Strait of Hormuz
The United States is warning shipping companies about potential sanctions for paying Iran to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
Why do crabs walk sideways? Scientists trace it back 200 million years
Crabs’ famous sideways walk may trace back to a single evolutionary moment 200 million years ago. Researchers found that most modern crabs inherited this trait from one ancestor—and never looked back. The movement likely gave them an edge, helping them dodge predators with quick, unpredictable bursts. It’s a rare example of a behavior evolving once and then dominating an entire group.
Business Lookahead: Eyeing oil, US jobs, and European earnings
STORY: From high oil prices and the conflict in the Middle East to U.S. jobs data and corporate earnings, here’s what you need to watch in business and finance in the week ahead.:: Crude and currencyOil prices briefly topped $120 a barrel this week to hit their highest level since 2022 as the war with Iran enters a third month.While the U.S. and Iran face pressure to end a conflict that has shut the Strait of Hormuz, the world watches anxiously as the biggest-ever disruption to energy supplies unfolds.For each week the Strait is closed, keeping oil elevated, the greater the economic risks via higher inflation or weak growth or, for some, both. Oil importer Japan just intervened to prop up a yen that has been weakened by the conflict.A new month is now underway and some traders will be mindful of that old adage, "Sell in May and go away.":: Jobs gyrationsAs the U.S. economy grapples with fallout from the Middle East war, Wall Street's radar turns to Friday's April monthly payrolls report.The U.S. economy likely created 73,000 new jobs, economists polled by Reuters forecast. In March, payrolls increased by 178,000, the most since December 2024, but that followed a sharp decline in February.The U.S. employment data comes amid signs of hawkishness at the Federal Reserve, as Donald Trump pick Kevin Warsh prepares to take over as chair with the U.S. president keen on rate cuts.:: Starmer’s statusThursday's local elections in Britain, usually a non-event for investors, could move markets in a big way, with opinion polls pointing to a heavy defeat for Prime Minister Keir Starmer's Labour Party.A heavy defeat could spark more widespread demands for his dismissal among his own lawmakers and stoke expectations of a successor more willing to run looser budgets. That would bring more bad news for British bonds.::European earningsIt's a big week for European earnings with Shell and Commerzbank among those reporting.On aggregate, profits are expected to grow 3.2% in Q1, according to LSEG I/B/E/S. Under the surface, it's a little bit more complicated. Growth is expected to be driven by just three sectors: financials, tech and energy. The latter is seen as the biggest beneficiary of the Iran war due to higher oil and gas prices.But if the war, and energy surge, persist, the overall outlook for Europe's earnings could turn.
Trump Loses Ground on Several Personal Traits as Approval Rating Slips
Views of Trump's handling of some key issues facing the U.S., such as immigration policy and use of military force, have become more negative.
ChatGPT Images 2.0 is a hit in India, but not a big winner elsewhere, yet
Users in India are embracing ChatGPT Images 2.0 for creative, personal visuals — from avatars to cinematic portraits.
Trump, Iran are locked in high-stakes standoff as oil prices hit wartime high
The U.S. blockade and Iranian mines and drones continue to halt shipping in the Strait of Hormuz as each side bets the other will break first.
Trump sees blockade extension as best option for forcing Iran back to the negotiating table
President Donald Trump has told his top advisers in recent days he wants the US naval blockade of Iranian ports to continue, sources familiar with the talks said, and his team has begun laying the groundwork for such an extension, including a longer-term closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Billionaire Tom Steyer wants to take on the rich in run for California governor
Billionaire climate activist Tom Steyer is selling himself as a class traitor in his bid for California governor.
“Political Disaster for Donald Trump”: Jeremy Scahill on Stalled U.S.-Iran Talks
Negotiations between the United States and Iran to end the war are at an impasse as the conflict enters its third month. The Wall Street Journal reported late Tuesday that Trump has told aides to prepare for an extended blockade of Iranian ports to ramp up the pressure on Tehran. Iran is saying it will enter into direct talks with the U.S. “when President Trump lifts what Iran considers to be the illegal military naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz,” says Drop Site News co-founder Jeremy Scahill. “Iran has maintained that it’s not shut down the strait, but that it’s just shut it down for any vessels that are linked to the U.S. war in any way.” Scahill says a disorganized Trump administration is pushing a “total propaganda narrative” that it has the upper hand in negotiations, while Iran believes it has the “three M’s” on its side: munitions, markets and the midterms.
Australia becomes the 30th country to eliminate trachoma as a public health problem
The World Health Organization (WHO) has validated Australia for eliminating trachoma as a public health problem, marking a significant milestone in the health of indigenous peoples and in global efforts to combat neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). Trachoma, the world’s leading infectious cause of blindness, no longer represents a public health problem in the country.Australia is among a growing number of countries that have successfully eliminated trachoma, contributing to global progress towards the targets set out in the WHO road map for NTDs 2021–2030.Trachoma is caused by the bacterium Chlamydia trachomatis and spreads through close contact with infected individuals, contaminated surfaces, and flies that carry eye and nose discharge. Repeated infections can lead to scarring of the eyelids, turning eyelashes inward, and ultimately causing blindness if untreated.“WHO congratulates Australia on this important achievement,” said Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, WHO Director-General. “This success reflects sustained commitment, strong partnerships, and a focus on reaching populations most affected by health inequities. It brings us closer to a world free from the suffering caused by trachoma.”Australia’s journey to eliminationAustralia’s achievement reflects decades of targeted public health action, particularly in remote Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities, where trachoma persisted despite its earlier disappearance from the rest of the country.National efforts intensified with the establishment of the National Trachoma Management Programme in 2006, which implemented the WHO-recommended SAFE strategy: surgery for trichiasis, antibiotics to treat infection, promotion of facial cleanliness, and environmental improvement. Regular screening of all communities classified as at-risk of trachoma by teams of qualified health workers formed an important part of the Programme. Interventions were delivered through coordinated partnerships between federal and state governments, Aboriginal community-controlled health services, and local communities.Over time, sustained screening, treatment, and prevention activities, including improvements in housing, water, sanitation and hygiene, led to a steady decline in trachoma prevalence. Australia’s approach included adaptations to reflect its context, such as targeted treatment based on community-level data rather than mass drug administration, and strong integration with environmental health programmes.“Elimination of trachoma is a win for the eye health of communities across Australia, particularly those whose lives have been impacted by a disease that is entirely preventable,” said Mark Butler, Minister for Health and Ageing, Australia. “This major milestone is thanks to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander leadership, community commitment and sustained investment over many decades.“The lessons from this work will inform how we approach other preventable health conditions in remote and regional Australia. Aboriginal Community Controlled Health Organisations and local health workers have been central to this success, delivering culturally safe care and community-led solutions.”“This recognition from the World Health Organization reflects decades of work led by Aboriginal Community Controlled Health Organisations, alongside local health workers in remote First Nations communities,” said Malarndirri McCarthy, Minister for Indigenous Australians. “Their work has been critical to eliminating trachoma as a public health problem in Australia.”Advancing global efforts against neglected tropical diseases (NTDs)Trachoma is one of 21 diseases and disease groups that are regarded by WHO as NTDs. Together, NTDs affect more than 1 billion people worldwide, primarily in underserved populations with limited access to essential services such as clean water, sanitation, and health care.Australia’s elimination of trachoma as a public health problem highlights the importance of sustained political commitment and cross-sectoral collaboration in addressing the underlying determinants of health. It also underscores the feasibility of eliminating trachoma even in geographically challenging settings.In addition to trachoma, Australia has several endemic NTDs, including Buruli ulcer, leprosy and scabies. Validation of elimination of trachoma as a public health problem marks the first time that WHO has confirmed the elimination of an NTD in Australia, which becomes the 63rd country globally and 16th in the Western Pacific Region to have eliminated at least one NTD.“Tackling neglected tropical diseases in the Western Pacific Region has long been a challenge for countries across the socioeconomic spectrum, given the complexities in reaching the most vulnerable communities, including in remote areas,” said Dr Saia Ma’u Piukala, WHO Regional Director for the Western Pacific. “As a doctor from Tonga, I’ve experienced these challenges for myself. But I also know that with strategic commitment underpinned by optimal resources and partnerships in health, success is possible as other countries in our region have also demonstrated. I commend Australia on eliminating trachoma as a public health problem and urge all involved to remain vigilant to ensure this status is maintained.”WHO continues to support countries working to eliminate trachoma and other NTDs, ensuring that progress reaches those most in need and that gains are sustained through strong surveillance, appropriately integrated into national health systems, and mainstreamed within the wider health sector and beyond.Editor’s notesNeglected tropical diseases and trachoma elimination effortsNeglected tropical diseases are associated with devastating health, social and economic consequences. Their burden is mainly felt among impoverished communities in tropical areas.Public health targets for the control, elimination and eradication of these conditions were set in the road map for neglected tropical diseases 2021–2030 (https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/9789240010352).In 1996, WHO launched the WHO Alliance for the Global Elimination of Trachoma by 2020 (GET2020), creating a network of governments, non-governmental organizations and academic institutions dedicated to the fight against trachoma. WHO continues to support endemic countries to accelerate progress towards the global target of eliminating trachoma as a public health problem worldwide; 2030 is the new target date.Elimination of trachoma as a public health problem is defined as: (i) a prevalence of trachomatous trichiasis (TT) “unknown to the health system” of < 0.2% in ≥15-year-olds; and (ii) a prevalence of trachomatous inflammation—follicular (TF) in children aged 1–9 years of < 5%, in each formerly endemic district, plus (iii) the existence of a system to identify and manage incident cases of TT.Other countries validated by WHO as having eliminated trachoma as a public health problem are: Algeria, Benin, Burundi, Cambodia, China, Egypt, Fiji, Gambia, Ghana, India, Iraq, Islamic Republic of Iran, Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Libya, Malawi, Mali, Mauritania, Mexico, Morocco, Myanmar, Nepal, Oman, Pakistan, Papua New Guinea, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Togo, Vanuatu and Viet Nam.
The E.P.A.’s Lost Science
The agency’s prestigious research office is being dismantled by the Trump administration, a plan to dam the Bering Strait and more climate news.
U.S. to issue passport for America's 250th celebration with Trump's portrait
The booklets will also include an image of the Founding Fathers, according to designs shared by the State Department
Your dreams aren’t random. Here’s what’s really happening
Dreams are more structured than they seem, shaped by both personal traits and real-world experiences. Researchers found that the brain doesn’t just replay daily life—it reshapes it into imaginative, sometimes surreal scenarios. People who mind-wander more tend to have fragmented dreams, while those who value dreams experience richer ones. Even major events like the pandemic changed dream content, making it more emotional and restrictive.
Russian superyacht Nord sails through blockaded Strait of Hormuz
The Nord, a multideck 464-foot pleasure vessel, is one of the few private ships to have made it past the blockaded strait.
George Strait returns to Death Valley. Are tickets still available?
George Strait returns to Memorial Stadium for a concert on May 2. Find out about tickets, parking, and other performers.
Photos of George Strait, Miranda Lambert concert at Texas Tech
In pictures: Check out highlights from George Strait, Miranda Lambert and Hudson Westbrook's concert Saturday night at Texas Tech in Lubbock.
Photos highlight George Strait Friday night concert at Texas Tech
In pictures: Check out highlights from George Strait's Friday night concert at Texas Tech in Lubbock.
George Strait in concert at the Pan American Center, Las Cruces
Photos of George Strait in concert at the Pan American Center, Las Cruces in 2002, 2007, 2013 and 2017.
Former NCT member Lucas officially ends contract with SM Entertainment
The Hong Kong rapper has since pursued a solo career, releasing the EP Renegade in 2024. Read more at straitstimes.com. Read more at straitstimes.com.
On Independent Bookstore Day, these shops showcase something special
Àbákẹ́ Books and Cafe in Jersey City and Watchung Booksellers in Montclair are among the more than 300 Black-owned bookstores in the U.S.
"The Cars That Made Us" Works as Education and Entertainment
Comic Jeff Dunham's "The Cars That Made Us" is a fun, entirely enjoyable portrait of a compelling car, one per episode.
Even as businesses spend $4 million to cross Panama Canal, they say ‘it’s safer and less expensive’ than the Strait of Hormuz
While passage through the canal usually comes at a flat rate via reservations, companies without bookings can pay more to cross through an auction that awards slots to the highest bidder. The alternative would be waiting for days off the coast of Panama City.
Building a massive dam between Alaska and Russia could prevent AMOC collapse, scientists say
Building a dam in the Bering Strait might preserve the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, but experts warn it could also threaten wildlife, Indigenous people and shipping — and could actually speed up its demise.
'Michael' Is An Entertaining, Yet Incomplete, Portrait Of An Icon
With help from the 'Michael' movie cast, Colman Domingo, Nia Long, Jaafar Jackson, and director Antoine Fuqua, here’s our breakdown of the controversial film.
Sam Mead, son of Wyoming politics, will run for U.S. Senate.
The candidate grew up with a political heritage and honed skills at Wyoming Whiskey, Blue Origin, in Kirby and on the family ranches.
Businesses dole out up to $4 million to cross Panama Canal during Strait of Hormuz chokehold
Businesses have doled out up to $4 million to cross boats through the Panama Canal to dodge ongoing chaos in the Strait of Hormuz, which has created a seismic shift in global trade flows.
Businesses dole out up to $4 million to cross Panama Canal during Strait of Hormuz chokehold
PANAMA CITY (AP) — Businesses have doled out up as much as $4 million to move boats through the Panama Canal with the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, according to the Panama Canal Authority, in a move that has created a seismic shift in global trade flows.
Businesses dole out up to $4 million to cross Panama Canal during Strait of Hormuz chokehold
Businesses have doled out up as much as $4 million to move boats through the Panama Canal with the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, according to the Panama Canal Authority, in a move that has created a seismic shift in global trade flows. While passage through the waterway usually comes at a flat rate via reservations, companies without reservations can cross by paying an additional fee in an auction for slots, which are awarded to the highest bidder rather than waiting for days off the coast of Panama City. Ships have increasingly traveled through the Panama Canal as shipments are rerouted and buyers purchase from other countries to avoid commerce through now-treacherous Middle Eastern waterway.
How the Iran War Is Morphing Into a Volatile Standoff in the Strait of Hormuz
The conflict has morphed into a volatile standoff in the Strait of Hormuz, as the economic costs mount and President Trump faces a political backlash at home.
UK government borrowing narrowly undershoots forecasts; oil rising over $100 amid strait of Hormuz deadlock
Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news
Has Trump's redistricting push backfired?
Nearly a year after pushing Texas Republican to redistrict, Trump's plans have may have misfired.
As Trump proposes further cuts to science spending, this Pittsburgh researcher is moving to China
Amid uncertain federal funding for science research, an infectious disease researcher is trading the hills of Pittsburgh for the mostly flat terrain on the outskirts of Shanghai.
UK inflation climbs to 3.3%, driven by largest increase in fuel prices in over three years
Oil prices fall on ceasefire extension but stay near $100 a barrel as strait of Hormuz remains closed
US oil prices rise as US-Iran peace talks remain uncertain
U.S. crude futures rose in early trade on Wednesday, despite Washington's announcement that it would indefinitely extend a ceasefire with Iran, as uncertainty over peace talks persisted and the Strait of Hormuz remained effectively closed.
Scientists sculpt Einstein onto a crystal using only light
A light-sensitive crystal is opening the door to a new era of “light-written” technology. Arsenic trisulfide can be reshaped and permanently altered using simple light, creating ultra-fine optical patterns without expensive manufacturing tools. Scientists even etched a nanoscale portrait of Einstein and high-density patterns that could act as secure optical signatures. This breakthrough could power everything from advanced sensors to next-generation AR devices.
Trump, Pope Leo And A New Chapter in America’s Religious Politics
(ANALYSIS) American religion has rarely, if ever, seen anything quite like these past weeks. Start with President Donald Trump’s profane Easter Sunday message to Iran: “Open the [unprintable F-bomb] Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell - JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah." The l
Trump tells Maria ‘deal will be signed tonight’ as tensions explode in Strait of Hormuz
Rep. Ro Khanna, D-Calif., joins ‘Mornings with Maria’ to debate the escalating U.S.-Iran conflict, clash over oil exports and gas prices, and challenge President Donald Trump’s strategy as tensions surge in the Strait of Hormuz.
Oil prices rise anew after a US-Iran standoff in the Strait of Hormuz strands tankers
Oil prices are rising in early trading as a standoff between Iran and the U.S. prevented tankers from using the Strait of Hormuz.
Oil prices rebound 7% as Strait of Hormuz is closed again
Oil prices rebounded more than 7% on Monday after tumbling more than 9% on Friday as the Strait of Hormuz closed after the U.S. and Iran said that the other party has violated the ceasefire deal by attacking ships.
Tehran will never cede control of Strait of Hormuz, senior Iranian politician tells BBC
"Iran will decide the right of passage" through the crucial shipping route, Ebrahim Azizi tells the BBC's Lyse Doucet.
Think AI "knows" what it’s doing? Scientists say think again
Calling AI things like “smart” or saying it “knows” something might sound harmless, but it can quietly mislead people about what AI actually does. A new study shows that news writers are more careful than expected, rarely using strongly human-like language. When they do, it often falls on a spectrum—sometimes describing simple requirements, other times hinting at human traits.
Iran crisis overshadows Lavrov at Antalya diplomacy forum [VIDEO]
Iran, not Russia, dominated the Antalya Diplomacy Forum on Saturday, as confusion over the Strait of Hormuz overshadowed what had been expected to be a major appearance by Russian Foreign...
Where to invest as markets rally on Strait of Hormuz reopening
The stock market was in party mode on Friday as Iran announced it was ending its weekslong blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Here's where to invest.
Strait of Hormuz reopens & getting money out of politics
The Strait of Hormuz reopens as President Trump teases another round of talks. Retired Naval Intelligence Commander Dr. Paul Chabot weighs in on what could come next. Plus, Ken Whittaker with Michigan United discusses why he feels money should be taken out of politics.
Trump Announces US blockade on Iranian ports throughout the Strait of Hormuz
‘A good sign for all of us": GOP Congressman reacts to Trump’s declarations on the Strait of Hormuz
The Iran war isn’t hitting your grocery bill
The Strait of Hormuz is reopening. But the war’s impacts on the food economy could linger.
Stock market today: Indexes hit records after Iran says Hormuz is open
US stocks surged and oil prices plunged after Iran announced the Strait of Hormuz was "completely open," removing a key overhang for markets.
Strait of Hormuz blockade ‘working to provide leverage,’ political strategist says
An ‘All-Star’ panel joins ‘Special Report’ to discuss the state of US-Iran negotiations and the impact of the conflict on gas prices and affordability.
Participation, Debate and Community: Exploring Ancient Democratic Values in Modern Society | Pomona College in Claremont, California
Associate Professor of Classics Benjamin Keim explains what our methods for assessing potential officeholders have in common with those of the ancient Athenians.
Trump questions NATO amid Iran and Strait of Hormuz tensions in Fox Business interview
Anitta, like you've never heard her before. The Brazilian superstar talks new album, 'SNL' and God
Anitta’s upcoming album “Equilibrium” showcases her roots with a vibrant mix of Brazilian funk, samba, bossa nova and more | WBEN
I Don’t Blame NATO for Skipping Out on Our Greedy President’s Strait of Hormuz Blockade
Trump, whose most profound desire is to make money, is essentially running an extortion scheme.
Ian McKellen and Michaela Coel on art, their friendship and 'The Christophers'
As screen presences and cultural figures, Ian McKellen and Michaela Coel could hardly be more different | WWJ Newsradio 950
Ian McKellen and Michaela Coel on art, their friendship and 'The Christophers'
As screen presences and cultural figures, Ian McKellen and Michaela Coel could hardly be more different | WWL
Google, Microsoft, Meta All Tracking You Even When You Opt Out, According to an Independent Audit
“This is the Strait of Hormuz in the data economy. If you want to make a change, this is where you cut it off. Anything short of that is theatrical political posture.”
US crude futures fall over $1 as traders weigh supply risks
U.S. crude futures fell more than $1 in early Asian trade on Tuesday as traders balanced heightened supply risks linked to a U.S. blockade of Iranian shipping in the Strait of Hormuz with reports that Washington and Tehran were still open to talks after a tense meeting in Islamabad.
Nige and Zia set out plan to send ‘Boriswave’ traitors to the gulag
Farage and sidekick are still sore about how the Tories handled Brexit, although new mates Braverman and Jenrick are forgiven
The Global Supply Of Helium Is Being Disrupted, Impacting A Range Of Critical Industries Including Medicine And Tech Development
Helium may be one of the most underestimated resources when it comes to our international dependence.
The Next Test in the Iran War: Which Side Can Endure More Economic Pain?
President Trump is trying to choke off the country’s lifeline with a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. But the Iranians are betting that his tolerance for political pain is limited.
Oil prices jump on US plans to blockade Iranian ports in Strait of Hormuz
Oil prices climbed Monday, after the US military said it would implement a shipping blockade in the Strait of Hormuz — a move that could test the current ceasefire while further tightening global oil supply.
Starmer confirms UK will not support US blockade of strait of Hormuz
PM says opening waterway is ‘vital’ as he rules out any UK involvement in US moves to blockade strait
Oil price tops $100 a barrel again after Trump announces strait of Hormuz blockade
Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news
Trump’s strait blockade risks another serious blow to the global economy
The failure of US-Iran peace talks leaves President Donald Trump with a set of unattractive options that are unlikely to hand him a decisive or swift victory.
IMF director says shock from US-Iran War is 'baked' into the economy
War has ravaged the Middle East for 43 days, but the damage could take years to repair amid tension at the Strait of Hormuz and damaged oil hubs.
Oil prices rise after Trump threatens to block passage through Strait of Hormuz
Oil prices topped $100 a barrel again on Sunday after President Donald Trump said the US would blockade “any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz,” threatening to further disrupt oil flows.
News Analysis: Trump's Strait of Hormuz blockade risks clash with China
It is a high-stakes moment ahead of a closely watched summit between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing next month.
Trump says gas prices could be same or 'a little bit higher' before midterms
One of the sticking points in the negotiations held in Islamabad has been Iran's stranglehold over the Strait of Hormuz.
Nikki Haley: Iran thinks ‘they have leverage with the Strait. And they do.’
Why Trump is threatening to blockade a strait that Iran is already blockading
President Donald Trump is threatening to close off the Strait of Hormuz — a crucial waterway that he has repeatedly told Iran must be reopened unconditionally.
Trump announces blockade of Hormuz
President Trump has reacted to the failure of US-Iran peace talks by announcing a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
Deadlock on Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s nuclear stockpile led to impasse, officials say
Entering this weekend’s high-stakes talks in Pakistan, US officials identified a number of key areas where they would need to see progress in order to declare success.
Politics chat: Vance says talks with Iran haven't reached an agreement
Vice President JD Vance said the U.S. and Iran did not reach an agreement to end the war after meeting on Saturday. Control over the Strait of Hormuz remains a flash point in the war.
Why reopening the Strait of Hormuz won’t be enough to solve shipping woes and high oil prices
Reopening the Strait of Hormuz is proving to be difficult. But even if the vital waterway fully opens and oil and other necessary cargo sail out, it won’t be enough to return things to normal.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
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