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Pioneer of China NewCo model sued in US over trade secret misuse, double-dealing

A legal feud unfolding in New York is putting a spotlight on the work of a business development veteran who is credited for pioneering one of biopharma’s hottest dealmaking mechanism: the China “NewCo” model. In a lawsuit originally filed in New York state court and recently moved to federal court, China’s Lepu Medical Technology has alleged that biopharma business development consultant Su Zhang, who was hired to help shop its GLP-1 weight-loss candidates to Western partners, engaged in corporate double-dealing and trade secret leaks. According to the complaint, while acting as Lepu’s primary dealmaking liaison for a group of obesity and metabolic disease drug candidates, Zhang was secretly double-dipping as the acting chief business officer for a direct competitor, BrightGene Pharmaceutical. “She never adequately disclosed the role, never sought Lepu’s consent, and never proposed any safeguard,” Lepu alleged in its complaint, which was filed in July after Zhang’s consulting firm, CoDevCo, sought certain transaction-based success fees from its angry customer through an arbitration process in Singapore. Lepu, the parent company of Lepu Biopharma, has asked Zhang to pay back its $500,000 retainer and disgorge all benefits she received during the alleged breaches of fiduciary duty, plus other damages and relief. The company has also requested the court grant injunctions to protect Lepu’s trade secrets. The ill-fated partnership officially kicked off in December 2024, when Lepu tapped CoDevCo as its “exclusive business development mechanism” to identify collaborators for the company’s drug candidates. According to Lepu’s complaint, Zhang personally negotiated and signed the agreement as managing director for CoDevCo, which used her home address. Before the Lepu deal, Zhang made a name following a short stint as the global head of business development for Hengrui Pharmaceuticals. It was during her tenure that Hengrui signed a landmark deal granting exclusive rights for a portfolio of GLP-1 assets to Hercules, which was at that time newly established by a group of private equity and venture capital firms. In addition to the regular upfront and milestone payments, Hengrui also gained an equity stake in Hercules, which later became Kailera Therapeutics. The Hengrui-Hercules deal opened a new paradigm, where a Chinese biopharma company spins off certain early-stage assets to investors for further development through the creation of a new company abroad. The “NewCo” model quickly came into vogue as it allows Western investors to access high-potential assets originating from China at an early stage while giving the Chinese licensors an opportunity to reap long-term benefits through equity stakes in the new firms. The NewCo model proved its value when Kailera staged a record-breaking $625 million IPO on Nasdaq this April, merely two years into the Hengrui deal. Related Kailera CEO 'knew we were in a good spot' before obesity biotech's record-breaking $625M IPO On her LinkedIn page, Zhang described her work at Hengrui as “[b]uilding team and capability from the ground up,” forming NewCo and major pharma partnerships worth billions of dollars. Lepu clearly wanted that kind of track record to help boost its own cardiometabolic portfolio, which includes a range of assets for obesity, Type 2 diabetes, fatty liver disease and muscle preservation during weight loss treatment. “Lepu’s pipeline is very valuable, but only if Lepu could secure the right international partner to expand into the overseas market during the available commercial window,” the company argued in its complaint. The Chinese biotech said it had little knowledge of U.S. laws, customs or business practices in the business development field, and therefore “needed to rely entirely” on the expertise of Zhang and her team as the firm’s first engagement of a U.S.-based BD consultant. “Zhang’s dominating influence on the business development strategy is further evidenced by the fact that she personally controlled the business-development communications on behalf of Lepu with potential partners,” Lepu said in its complaint. After entering the deal, Zhang introduced Lepu to her four associates. According to Lepu’s version of events, all of them were allegedly employed at different time points to perform similar jobs at other Chinese companies that Lepu described as its competitors, while having access to Lepu’s confidential information. As such, Lepu described Zhang’s team as “a roster of individuals whose primary professional loyalty, by virtue of their concurrent full-time employment, ran to Lepu’s competitors.” As well as the specific examples set out in the case, a look at Lepu’s deals over the period suggests Zhang may have been involved in at least one transaction. During their partnership, Lepu, through its subsidiary Shanghai Minwei Biotechnology, also out-licensed its GLP-1/GIP/FGF21 agonist MWN105 to a NewCo called Sidera Bio in the fall of 2025. The deal included an upfront and near-term payment of $35 million, up to $1.01 billion in milestones, and a 9.99% stake in the Danish startup. It seems likely that Zhang facilitated the Minwei deal given that Lepu is on record as having used CoDevCo as its “exclusive business development mechanism.” The big shock for Lepu came in the form of a news article on June 25, 2025. The article, reporting on phase 2 data for BrightGene’s GLP-1/GIP receptor agonist BGM0504, identified Zhang as acting chief business officer of the Lepu rival. Blindsided by her association with BrightGene, Lepu confronted Zhang in July 2025. “Lepu was given assurances that there was nothing to be concerned about and told that Zhang would explain the matter to Lepu,” Lepu alleged in its complaint. “Zhang never did.” Lepu claimed that Zhang had the motive and opportunity to steer potential prospective partners toward BrightGene or other competitors. Later, in February 2026, one of Zhang’s associates joined BrightGene as the vice president for global business development, according to the complaint. Around the same time, Lepu sent written demand letters asking Zhang to account for her BrightGene role, identify what confidential data were shared with the rival firm, and provide any conflict-of-interest or firewall policies during the engagement. According to Lepu, neither CoDevCo nor Zhang answered the questions in their responses. Related Novo vs. KBP: How a $1.3B deal turned into a fraud accusation and an international legal fight In a motion to dismiss filed with the U.S. District Court in the Eastern District of New York on Sept. 4, Zhang’s legal team argued that Lepu’s agreement was signed with CoDevCo, and that an employee of the contractor does not owe fiduciary duties to the client. In its complaint, Lepu said: “That CoDevCo was the contracting entity does not insulate Zhang from personal liability for duties she personally undertook and personally breached.” Taking the argument one step further, the defending party argued that the consulting agreement “does not create a fiduciary relationship even between CoDevCo and Lepu; instead, it identifies CoDevCo as an independent contractor retained to market Lepu’s business to potential western partners.” Although CoDevCo was Lepu’s exclusive business-development contractor, there were no terms stipulating that the consulting firm should serve only Lepu, Zhang’s lawyer noted. As to Lepu’s claims that Zhang misappropriated trade secrets, the defendant argued that Lepu authorized the use of the information so Zhang’s team could perform their service per the agreement. In a rebuttal filed on Sept. 11, Lepu’s lawyer set out why they believe the Chinese biotech satisfied New York law’s misappropriation definition by alleging that the defendant used a trade secret “in breach of a duty or through improper means.” As an alternative to dismissing the suit, the defendant suggested the action should be stayed pending outcomes from the arbitration of a separate case in Singapore. While NewCo pioneer Zhang is defending her business arrangements, momentum behind the NewCo trend has continued unabated into 2026. Through August, Chinese biotech assets have spurred 15 NewCo deals this year, according to local trade publication PharmaDJ.

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Sep 25 • 8:40 AM EDT • Business • fiercebiotech.com
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Capitol agenda: Dems weigh doing Husted a solid - Live Updates

A data center measure easily passed the House last week with more than 200 Democratic votes, but campaign-season politics are making action trickier for the party in the Senate.

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Sep 25 • 8:00 AM EDT • Politics • politico.com
Should FSU bring back Jimbo Fisher? History offers a cautionary tale

Florida State is reportedly weighing a Jimbo Fisher reunion. We studied 18 coaches who made a second run with a school. Almost none were successful.

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Sep 25 • 7:01 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
JPMorgan says buy this sports data stock that looks cheap

The investment bank initiated coverage of the sports data and technology stock with an overweight rating.

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Sep 25 • 6:44 AM EDT • Sports • cnbc.com
Focus: Americans navigate 'wild West' of health insurance options after dropping Obamacare plans

When Stacy Cox, a self-employed photographer in Kanab, Utah, dropped her Obamacare health insurance plan this year, routine preventive care became a financial dilemma. Now she finds herself weighing $1,200 for a mammogram against survival of her business.

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Sep 25 • 6:05 AM EDT • Health • reuters.com
Data centers and health. A UConn professor weighs in on the controversy.

A consideration is that data centers are built where land is cheap.

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Sep 25 • 5:30 AM EDT • Health • courant.com
Democrats weigh how to handle data center vote that could benefit a GOP foe

“They say they’re for more affordability,” embattled GOP Sen. Jon Husted said. “This is a chance for everybody to prove it.”

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Sep 25 • 4:45 AM EDT • Politics • politico.com
Surprising Short-Notice Welterweight Bout Added to UFC 332

A surprising short-notice welterweight bout has been added to UFC 332, which takes place next Saturday night.As first reported by MMAMania.com, welterweight prospect Jacobe Smith will return to the Octagon to face UFC newcomer Bruce Whitehead in a surprising booking that has MMA fans scratching their heads.Heavy’s Marcel Dorff further confirmed that Smith vs. Whitehead […] The post Surprising Short-Notice Welterweight Bout Added to UFC 332 appeared first on HEAVY.

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Sep 25 • 4:01 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Chris Weidman Explains How Josh Hokit Can Beat Ciryl Gane

UFC Hall of Famer Chris Weidman explained how Josh Hokit can defeat UFC heavyweight champion Ciryl Gane at UFC 334.With less than one year of UFC experience, Hokit will be fighting Gane for the undisputed UFC heavyweight title at UFC 334, which goes down on November 14 at Madison Square Garden in New York City, […] The post Chris Weidman Explains How Josh Hokit Can Beat Ciryl Gane appeared first on HEAVY.

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Sep 25 • 3:48 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Donald Trump Receives Stark Warning from Businesses After Diesel Export Ban

President Donald Trump is weighing a diesel export ban to calm soaring fuel costs. Still, America’s most influential business lobbies say the idea would backfire badly and leave consumers paying more ...

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Sep 25 • 1:22 AM EDT • Business • yahoo.com
Political science professors weigh in on U.S. House recess

On Sept. 16, Speaker of the House Mike Johnson recessed the House of Representatives a day earlier than scheduled. He sent members of Congress home to their districts before the midterm elections. This decision came following Rep. Thomas Massie’s introduction of articles of impeachment against Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, primarily related to military action...

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Sep 25 • 1:09 AM EDT • Science • iowastatedaily.com
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ACSH in the media: British Medical Journal, RealClearScience (and Health), plus more podcasts

From a weedkiller paper that cannot carry the weight of its headline to a PFAS rule that treats cookware like a biohazard, we've been busy. Here’s a look at some of our recent media appearances, including in the British Medical Journal (BMJ), RealClearHealth, RealClearScience, SacTown Talks and the Health Policy Podcast.

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Sep 25 • 12:07 AM EDT • Health • acsh.org
George Kittle weighs in on 49ers’ surprising early success

San Francisco 49ers tight end George Kittle weighs in on the team's early success.It’s only been about three weeks into the NFL season, and no team might be hotter than...

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Sep 24 • 9:53 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Tiffani Thiessen says she ‘got nothing’ for ‘Saved by the Bell,’ didn’t make ‘real money’ until ‘90210’

‘Saved by the Bell’ alum Tiffani Thiessen weighs in on what the cast members were paid

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Sep 24 • 8:01 PM EDT • Entertainment • ew.com
Health leaders address childhood obesity at Baton Rouge conference

One in three children in Louisiana are overweight or obese, officials say.

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Sep 24 • 6:09 PM EDT • Health • wafb.com
Greenfield takes stock of viral attention: Businesses, officials weigh in after coverage of lesbian bar Last Ditch takes national spotlight

Local leaders and business owners defend Greenfield's Last Ditch bar amid a viral dispute over Saturday night masking policies.

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Sep 24 • 5:52 PM EDT • Business • recorder.com
Flutter Entertainment Falls as Guidance Cuts and a Recent Downgrade Weigh on Sentiment

Flutter Entertainment (FLUT) is down 4.4% today. Here is some analysis on what might have caused this price movement.Analysis: The most likely driver is continuing fallout from Flutter’s lowered 2026 outlook and a recent analyst downgrade that highlighted repeated guidance cuts and a slower-than-expected FanDuel sportsbook recovery. This could also reflect investor concern that heavier spending to defend market share may keep profits under pressu

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Sep 24 • 5:19 PM EDT • Entertainment • quiverquant.com
Bills TE Kincaid is once again pulling his weight in production

The fourth-year player is leading the Bills (2-0) with 12 catches and is third in the NFL with 225 yards receiving.

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Sep 24 • 3:55 PM EDT • Sports • spectrumlocalnews.com
Semaglutide is improving the heart health of millions—but how? Experts are stumped

“Our analyses could not fully ascribe the effects of semaglutide on cardiovascular disease to known risk factors with any certainty,” one researcher said after exploring years of data. "These results suggest that semaglutide should be considered as a cardiovascular disease reduction drug and not just as a weight loss drug,"

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Sep 24 • 12:36 PM EDT • Health • cardiovascularbusiness.com
UFC Champion Justin Gaethje Provides Latest Health Update

UFC lightweight champion Justin Gaethje provided his latest health update as fans eagerly anticipate seeing him fight again.Gaethje’s last fight came in June when he defeated Ilia Topuria via fourth-round TKO due to corner stoppage to become the undisputed UFC lightweight champion of the world.However, he has not fought since then and isn’t even sure […] The post UFC Champion Justin Gaethje Provides Latest Health Update appeared first on HEAVY.

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Sep 24 • 11:10 AM EDT • Health • sports.yahoo.com
UFC Champion Justin Gaethje Provides Latest Health Update

UFC lightweight champion Justin Gaethje provided his latest health update as fans eagerly anticipate seeing him fight again.Gaethje’s last fight came in June when he defeated Ilia Topuria via fourth-round TKO due to corner stoppage to become the undisputed UFC lightweight champion of the world.However, he has not fought since then and isn’t even sure […] The post UFC Champion Justin Gaethje Provides Latest Health Update appeared first on HEAVY.

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Sep 24 • 11:10 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
‘The Three B’s’ Combined XI

Everyone has been talking about Brighton, Brentford and Bournemouth, largely due to their consistent ability to punch above their perceived weight. But what is the best eleven that could be fielded using only players from each club?

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Sep 24 • 10:28 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Minnesota man excited for the future after bariatric surgery

For Paul Nistler, losing weight with bariatric surgery meant lifelong changes but also lifelong health and more time with his family.

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Sep 24 • 9:00 AM EDT • Health • news.sanfordhealth.org
Civic Committee sounds alarm on city finances ahead of budget

As Johnson and the City Council get ready for what promises to be another chaotic budget process, the Civic Committee weighs in with some friendly but stern advice.

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Sep 24 • 7:00 AM EDT • Business • chicagobusiness.com
Civic Committee sounds alarm on city finances ahead of budget

As Johnson and the City Council get ready for what promises to be another chaotic budget process, the Civic Committee weighs in with some friendly but stern advice.

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Sep 24 • 7:00 AM EDT • Politics • chicagobusiness.com
Meta is trying VR glasses (again), this time with more IMAX

Meta's return to the VR glasses realm comes with a promising combination of light weight form factor and enhanced entertainment options.

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Sep 23 • 7:47 PM EDT • Technology • techcrunch.com
South Korea’s weight-loss obsession and the health risks it brings

South Korean women face higher underweight rates than men, with experts warning that social pressure to be thin and weight-loss drugs may pose health risks.

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Sep 23 • 7:45 PM EDT • Health • globalnation.inquirer.net
Chamber of Commerce, oil groups urge Trump to reject diesel export ban

American business, energy and manufacturing groups on Wednesday urged President Trump to reject calls to impose a diesel export ban after the president said he was weighing this move in an effort t…

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Sep 23 • 6:30 PM EDT • Business • thehill.com
Hearing on NextEra-Dominion utility merger scheduled in Fairfax

Virginia's state regulatory body has scheduled a Northern Virginia hearing as it weighs a proposed merger between Dominion Energy and Florida-based NextEra Energy.

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Sep 23 • 5:00 PM EDT • Business • loudountimes.com
Crew Studies Advanced Health Tech and Gears Up for Next Crew Swap

Ultrasound scans using augmented reality and artificial intelligence topped the health research schedule aboard the International Space Station on Wednesday. The Expedition 75 crew also collected blood and saliva samples to study how the immune system adapts to weightlessness. The orbital residents are now preparing for a crew swap as NASA’s SpaceX Crew-13 mission announces a launch date.

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Sep 23 • 3:22 PM EDT • Health • nasa.gov
UFC Veteran Encourages Gable Steveson to Leave Jon Jones

UFC veteran Matt Brown has encouraged heavyweight prospect Gable Steveson to leave Jon Jones and find someone else to coach him. Steveson was shockingly defeated by Sean Sharaf on the UFC 331 main card this past Saturday in the biggest upset in UFC history, based on the odds. Following the bout, Steveson left the cage […] The post UFC Veteran Encourages Gable Steveson to Leave Jon Jones appeared first on HEAVY.

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Sep 23 • 2:00 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Early childhood BMI trajectories predict later cardiometabolic health risks

Childhood obesity predicts later cardiometabolic disease, but single-time weight measures may miss dynamic growth information.

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Sep 23 • 1:10 PM EDT • Health • news-medical.net
JPMorgan Weighs Opening Card Business to Private Credit

J.P. Morgan Chase is reportedly exploring whether other funding sources could approve some of the cards it rejects. That's according to a report late

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Sep 23 • 6:57 AM EDT • Business • pymnts.com
AI Boom, Politics, Inflation Stoke Anxiety Across Big Law

AI’s ascendance, polarized politics, and stubborn inflation are weighing down legal professionals, survey shows.

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Sep 23 • 5:04 AM EDT • Politics • news.bloomberglaw.com
DA Larry Krasner faces an uncertain political future as Democrats weigh what could come next

New questions emerged this week about Krasner’s political ambitions and his potential bid for Philly mayor. Meanwhile, others are angling for his job.

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Sep 23 • 5:01 AM EDT • Politics • inquirer.com
Horiguchi Returns Versus Almabayev At UFC Qatar

The UFC Flyweight division is hot right now. Just days ago at UFC 331, Joshua Van cemented his rule atop the 125-pound roost with a violent decision win over former divisional kingpin Alexandre Pantoja. Van is expected to face Manel Kape in his next title defense, but otherwise, the division is wide open for any […]

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Sep 23 • 3:00 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Stanford researchers weigh AI applications in education, science

As AI becomes increasingly capable, Stanford researchers explore how it can extend human capabilities in education, science and the social sciences.

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Sep 23 • 2:25 AM EDT • Science • stanforddaily.com
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Detroit Pistons Slip Weight Clause Into Jalen Duren Contract

With training camp opening next week, the Detroit Pistons still have not been able to reach a long-term agreement with restricted free agent Jalen Duren

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Sep 22 • 6:00 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Russia's neighbor reveals personal appeals to Trump as US weighs NATO troop pullback in Europe

Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda revealed he sent two letters to Trump urging U.S. troops to stay on NATO's eastern flank amid Russia threat.

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Sep 22 • 4:58 PM EDT • Politics • foxnews.com
Qualcomm releases Android chip built for AI as memory shortage weighs on smartphone market

The overall smartphone market is expected to contract 14% in terms of units shipped in 2026.

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Sep 22 • 4:29 PM EDT • Technology • cnbc.com
When treachery abounds, entertainment resounds - The Voice of San Francisco

Betrayal is disheartening and debilitating, unless it’s happening to someone in a movie. Then, it’s diverting. For example, The Weight is a tension-loaded drama that follows a criminal expedition into the wilds of the Pacific Northwest in the 1930s and hinges on shady people depending on each other in extreme circumstances. As for The Musical, […]

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Sep 22 • 10:24 AM EDT • Entertainment • thevoicesf.org
Poor sleep health in late pregnancy linked to higher childhood obesity risk

New research has found that mothers with poor sleep quality in late pregnancy had babies with lower weight in the first 6 months of life, but higher weight after age 1-2 years.

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Sep 22 • 8:56 AM EDT • Health • news-medical.net
Can AI Be Slowed Down? Stanford HAI Experts Weigh the Risks, Rules and Race Ahead

In a new series called 'Prompt Response,' Stanford’s Surya Ganguli, Diyi Yang and Rob Reich examined emergent agent behavior, recursive self-improvement, independent evaluation and whether a 'kill switch' can make advanced AI safer.

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Sep 22 • 8:00 AM EDT • Science • hai.stanford.edu
Portsmouth housing solutions, AI threats, political views: Letters

Letters package: Writers weigh in on Portsmouth housing policy, AI risks, NH politics, Maine fisheries and international affairs.

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Sep 22 • 6:57 AM EDT • Politics • seacoastonline.com
MORNING BUSINESS REPORT: Seniors use weight loss drugs, Apple settlement, Disney trip deals

More seniors are using drugs like Ozempic, customers can claim part of an Apple settlement, and Disney offers promotional deals. Here's the Morning Business Report for Sept. 22.

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Sep 22 • 6:16 AM EDT • Business • wfsb.com
Is 50 the new 60?

Subscribe TL;DR: Younger generations are showing signs of worse health compared to earlier-born cohorts at the same age This backward “drift” is showing up both in mortality risk and chronic disease Worsening trends in obesity and diabetes are the most consistent signals Taking the long view, we’ve made astonishing gains in health and life expectancy in the last century. Global average life expectancy has more than doubled from 32 years in 1900 to 73 years in 2024. (But don’t forget, there were still old people when life expectancy was 32). As people lived longer, they also generally lived healthier along the way. It turns out that avoiding things that can kill you early, like malnutrition and lots of childhood infections, also keeps you healthier later in life. In a classic 2004 paper, Finch and Crimmins proposed that cohorts of children who benefited from fewer early life infections had less lifetime exposure to inflammation and cardiovascular disease later in life, accelerating mortality improvements at older ages. Poor nutrition in the womb has also been linked to a higher risk of later chronic disease. The upshot is that improvements in childhood health can pay dividends many decades later. The combination of better living conditions (nutrition, sanitation) and medical advances (antibiotics, vaccines, blood pressure meds, etc) meant that people’s healthy lifespan generally expanded, even as they lived longer. Aging researchers call this best-case scenario “compression of morbidity”—meaning we delay the onset of disease and disability even faster than the years of life we are adding. During my 20+ year research career, we could generally bank on the idea that younger generations would not only live longer but also keep getting healthier along the way. “60 is the new 50” as they say… Enter “Generational Health Drift” Sadly, this expectation of steady progress may be changing. You’ve probably heard that US life expectancy gains have slowed to a crawl in the past couple of decades. Mortality improvements are also slowing (though less dramatically) in many other high-income countries (you can read more about that in a review paper I wrote here). Mortality is a very blunt health measure, but it is often a good barometer for the broader population health trends happening underneath. And we are now seeing that younger generations may be in worse health at similar ages compared to earlier born cohorts. My collaborator Prof. George Ploubidis at University College London coined this worsening health in more recently born cohorts “generational health drift.” “Generational health drift” is bad news on multiple fronts. Most obviously, we don’t want our health progress to go backward. But the timing is also bad, since our populations are aging. In demographic terms, “population aging” means that the proportion of the population at older ages (i.e >65 years) is increasing. Fun demography fact: Current population aging is not due to the recent declines in the birth rates making the news, but declines in fertility decades ago, after the “baby boom.” As baby boomers reach older ages, the smaller cohorts behind them mean the percentage of older adults will increase. For example, the share of the population age 65 and older in the US increased from 12.4% in 2004 to 18.0% in 2024. This story of population aging was written long ago. Many worry that population aging will put pressure on health care and pension systems. But if people reach older ages in better health than in years past, those fiscal pressures would be less dire than projected. Healthy older people can also continue to contribute to society in many valuable ways, including paid work, caregiving, community service….even high political office 🤷. On the flip side, if younger generations reach retirement age in worse health and with more disabling conditions, this could magnify the societal challenge of population aging. Evidence for worsening generational health A recent paper that I LOVED in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences by Dr. Leah Abrams and colleagues examined which birth cohorts (aka generations) were behind worsening US mortality. Behold the Lexis diagram (cue swooning demographers). Calendar time is on the x-axis, age on the y-axis. Birth cohorts can be followed over time as they age on the diagonal lines moving up and to the right. This figure plots the year-on-year % change in all-cause mortality at a given age. Green shading indicates mortality improvements over time, white is stagnation, and gray shading indicates worsening mortality. Following the diagonal line for those born in 1950, you can see a noticeable shift from green to gray that follows this cohort for most of their lives. This gray shading shows generally worsening mortality for the 1950 to 1959 birth cohorts compared to their predecessors across all ages. Concerningly for my GenX and elder millennial peeps, there was also a deterioration in mortality for birth cohorts born in the 1970s and 1980s, visible as dark gray areas at ages 30 to 45 during the 2010s. While some of these mortality changes reflect specific shocks such as the opioid epidemic, most deaths still occur from major causes of death such as cardiovascular disease and cancer. For cancer, the gray in the top left corner of the figure below reflects the legacies of smoking for older cohorts, followed by a period of green with improvements in cancer mortality as smoking rates declined. But the white/gray shading in the bottom right corner highlights a stagnation and reversal of the cancer trends, with cohorts born around 1970 to 1985 experiencing worsening cancer mortality. This deterioration was most noticeable for colon cancer mortality, possibly linked to obesity or dietary factors. Not just dying more, but less healthy along the way. A recent paper by Dr. Laura Gimeno of University College London (of which I am a co-author), found evidence that more recently born cohorts in Great Britain have stagnating or worsening health. A stylized picture of what“generational health drift” might look like: The review paper found: Rates of childhood overweight and obesity were highest among Gen Z. Rates of diabetes in the 40s almost doubled from 3.1% among the Baby Boomers to 5.9% in Generation X. Gen Z reported higher rates of poor mental health in adolescence compared to earlier-born groups. These UK results are consistent with studies showing worsening health across generations in the US as well. A 2021 US study found that more recently born cohorts had worse biological markers (like blood pressure and blood sugar) than earlier generations at the same age. A separate 2022 study of Americans aged 50 and over found that more recently born generations had a higher number of chronic diseases, with younger age of disease onset. A 2024 Lancet paper found that in the US, women born in 1945 had 33% obesity prevalence at age 50, rising to 48.2% for women born in 1970 turning 50. So what’s going on, and can we turn it around? We don’t have a definitive answer for what’s causing the deteriorating health of younger cohorts, but circumstantial evidence points to worsening trends in obesity and diabetes in both the US and UK. Remember that cohort trends reflect lagged effects of early environments, and younger generations have faced both earlier onset and more severe obesity across their lifetimes. Despite these very concerning trends, the future is not set in stone. We’ve reversed poor generational health trends before: drops in smoking are a major reason cancer and heart disease deaths fell so dramatically in recent decades. GLP-1 drugs may finally turn the tide against rising rates of obesity and diabetes, though it is still early days. But things could also get worse…for example from a return to higher levels of childhood infectious diseases that can have a lasting impact on health. See for example: [ ](https://jenndowd.substack.com/p/dont-you-forget-about-measles-the) [ Don’t You Forget About Me(asles): The Virus That Erases Immune Memory ](https://jenndowd.substack.com/p/dont-you-forget-about-measles-the) Jenn Dowd, PhD · March 24, 2025 [ Read full story ](https://jenndowd.substack.com/p/dont-you-forget-about-measles-the) Even as an optimist, emerging data on the “generational health drift” has my full attention. For most of my research career, we took it for granted that each generation would be healthier than the last. But if present trends continue, **50 could be the new 60….**and Gen Z celebrities will soon look older than Paul Rudd :). Stay well, Jenn Share the Health! If you found this post useful, please share it with a friend. Share

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Sep 22 • 6:03 AM EDT • Health • jenndowd.substack.com
Newsom eyes 2028 as Democrats weigh their political future

Join The Hill’s Ian Swanson, Amie Parnes and special guest Democratic strategist Garry South, who has advised California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D), for a special “Fight for 2028” centered o…

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Sep 22 • 6:00 AM EDT • Politics • thehill.com
Minogue calls for federal probe into $2B state contract awarded to political heavyweights

Republican gubernatorial candidate Mike Minogue is calling on U.S. Attorney Leah Foley to investigate “everything around” the $2 billion state contract awarded to politically connected bidders.

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Sep 22 • 5:50 AM EDT • Politics • bostonherald.com
My predictions for Meta Connect 2026

Join me in guessing what will be unveiled at Meta Connect 2026, including exciting news about a new lightweight mixed-reality headset.

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Sep 22 • 12:52 AM EDT • Technology • skarredghost.com
ICE fears weigh on Latino business owners as DeLauro tours Fair Haven

Connecticut representative Rosa DeLauro visited restaurants and a retail store in New Haven’s majority-Latino Fair Haven neighborhood, where business owners said customers’ fear of ICE activity was driving down sales.

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Sep 21 • 9:19 PM EDT • Business • yaledailynews.com
Congressional leaders warn White House against adding controls over NIH grants

Political officials are weighing the creation of a commission to review awards by the National Institutes of Health, The Post reported.

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Sep 21 • 2:51 PM EDT • Politics • washingtonpost.com
Nicole Kidman urges fans to ‘demand’ a season 4 for ‘Lioness’: ‘We need loud voices’

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Sep 21 • 1:53 PM EDT • Entertainment • ew.com
Gov. Pritzker shares details on health, weight loss journey

Governor JB Pritzker shared new details about his health and weight loss journey.

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Sep 21 • 1:21 PM EDT • Health • abc7chicago.com
Germany’s political center suffers historic blow, Turkey weighs coming to Saudi Arabia’s aid, Major TV networks support outlets banned from White House

Two weeks ago, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz was “shocked” when his conservative CDU party got creamed by the hard right AfD in local elections in the state of Saxony-Anhalt. That was just the start.

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Sep 21 • 12:06 PM EDT • Politics • gzeromedia.com
Oxford Saïd Turns 30, Recalling Its Start In A Working Hospital

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Sep 21 • 12:05 PM EDT • Business • poetsandquants.com
JB Pritzker Says He Used GLP-1s to Lose 80 Pounds

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Sep 21 • 9:37 AM EDT • Politics • nytimes.com
Swiss business groups pressure parliament over UBS capital rules before vote

ZURICH, Sept 21 (Reuters) - Swiss business groups have weighed into the debate on tougher capital rules for UBS, writing to lawmakers to lobby against what they say risks being "excessive" ​regulation drawn up for the bank after the 2023 ‌collapse of C...

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Sep 21 • 7:32 AM EDT • Business • kfgo.com
Swiss business groups pressure parliament over UBS capital rules before vote

ZURICH, Sept 21 (Reuters) - Swiss business groups have weighed into the debate on tougher capital rules for UBS, writing to lawmakers to lobby against what they say risks being

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Sep 21 • 7:32 AM EDT • Business • lufkindailynews.com
Dramatic before and after photos that show off Abby Lee Miller's 127lb weight loss - as Dance Moms star turns 61

Dance Moms star Abby Lee Miller has undergone a major weight loss journey, see her before and after transformation photos

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Sep 21 • 7:01 AM EDT • Entertainment • yahoo.com
Is $300K enough? Economist weighs Nashville small business relief amid higher property tax

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Sep 21 • 6:54 AM EDT • Business • fox17.com
Most Sports Parents Say There's More Good Than Harm In Youth Sports, Survey Finds

By Dennis Thompson HealthDay ReporterMONDAY, Sept. 21, 2026 (HealthDay News) — Sports parents overwhelmingly say the benefits of organized competition outweigh the drawbacks for them and their kids, a new survey has found. Nearly 9 out of 10 sports parents (89%) said the benefits of youth sports ...

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Sep 21 • 6:15 AM EDT • Sports • usnews.com
Tobias Forge’s ‘V/H/S Mixtape’ Segment, Swedish Horror ‘Trespassers,’ ‘The End’ by ‘Midsommar’ Production Designer on Mylla Films Slate (EXCLUSIVE)

Swedish boutique genre specialist Mylla Films, brainchild of “Midsommar” producer Patrik Andersson and Nordic indie distribution heavyweight Jakob Abrahamsson (CEO of NonStop Entertainment), has turne...

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Sep 21 • 4:00 AM EDT • Entertainment • yahoo.com
Arman Tsarukyan Issues Statement Following Big UFC 331 Win

UFC lightweight contender Arman Tsarukyan issued a statement following his big win at UFC 331 over Mauricio Ruffy.In the co-main event of UFC 331, Tsarukyan knocked out Ruffy with a standing elbow and punches with just four seconds left in the first round.The fight was scheduled for five rounds, but Tsarukyan didn’t even need a […] The post Arman Tsarukyan Issues Statement Following Big UFC 331 Win appeared first on HEAVY.

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Sep 21 • 2:00 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Vitek Vanecek making case to be third goalie as Islanders weigh Semyon Varlamov's health risk

Nobody knows what the demands of an 84-game season — the travel, the practices, the 25 to 30 games the Islanders hope to get from their backup spot — will do to Varlamov’s knees.

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Sep 21 • 12:41 AM EDT • Health • nypost.com
Wake county, state leaders weigh in ahead of Atrium-WakeMed merger vote

The Wake County Board of Commissioners is scheduled to vote Monday on proposed merger between WakeMed and Atrium Health. Some Commissioners tell WRAL they're still skeptical, while others say the deal will serve North Carolinians.

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Sep 20 • 9:25 PM EDT • Health • wral.com
Vocci's ring adds a new form factor to meeting note-taking

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Sep 20 • 2:32 PM EDT • Technology • techcrunch.com
Scientists Discover New Compound That Burns Fat Without Killing Your Appetite

Unlike GLP-1 drugs, which suppress appetite and reduce energy intake, a newly identified molecular compound helps cells burn more energy without changing food intake or exercise and has shown promise in mouse models. The most successful new obesity drugs largely work by helping people eat less. Researchers at UC Berkeley are exploring a different strategy:

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Sep 20 • 10:37 AM EDT • Science • scitechdaily.com
Rare earth exposure causes 3-fold increase of health risk to China’s newborns

Research tracking pregnant Chinese women over a two year period shows link between critical mineral exposure and low baby birth weights.

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Sep 20 • 10:00 AM EDT • Science • scmp.com
Rare earth exposure causes 3-fold increase of health risk to China’s newborns

Research tracking pregnant Chinese women over a two year period shows link between critical mineral exposure and low baby birth weights.

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Sep 20 • 10:00 AM EDT • Health • scmp.com
Jodi's Journal: Weighing the price of data privacy

In a week of discussion over who’s watching us on the road, Jodi considers how data privacy questions could land next in the workplace.

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Sep 20 • 8:36 AM EDT • Business • siouxfalls.business
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Political Pulse: NMDOJ demands answers from PNM on billing complaints, Google considers data center in New Mexico, & lawmakers weigh gas tax hike

ALBUQUERQUE, N.M. (KRQE) –This week on the New Mexico Political Pulse, the New Mexico Department of Justice sent a letter to PNM, calling for an explanation following customer compla…

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Sep 20 • 8:00 AM EDT • Politics • krqe.com
It'll be controversial! Liverpool's eye bizarre new transfer

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Sep 20 • 4:35 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
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Author Michael Clinton weighs in on the changing science of longevity

The author reconsiders aging.

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Sep 20 • 2:05 AM EDT • Science • santafenewmexican.com
Sean Sharaf Pulls Off Biggest Upset in UFC History

Heavyweight Sean Sharaf pulled off the biggest upset in UFC history when he knocked out Gable Steveson in just 12 seconds at UFC 331. Sharaf stormed across the cage and caught Steveson with a massive left hook that immediately knocked him out cold for the biggest win of his MMA career to date and the […] The post Sean Sharaf Pulls Off Biggest Upset in UFC History appeared first on HEAVY.

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Sep 20 • 1:38 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
UFC 334 announced, heavyweight title fight headlines massive NYC card

UFC 334 full card announced during 331 broadcast

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Sep 19 • 11:36 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
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Are politicians normal people? New Yorkers weigh in
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Sep 19 • 5:29 PM EDT • Politics • cbsnews.com
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Elevance Health (ELV) Stock May Be Undervalued On Reaffirmed 2026 Guidance

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Sep 19 • 4:28 PM EDT • Health • simplywall.st
The Big Holes in Wearable Heart Rate Variability And Readiness Scores

On September 9th, Apple announced it was revamping its Apple Watch Health Sensing System, rolling out a Readiness score (0 to 10), and increasing the frequency of heart rate variability (HRV) outputs 24-fold. This can be viewed as upping its competition with various other consumer wearable sensors. These “readiness scores” as a composite of multiple metrics, with heart rate variability (HRV) being front and center for most. The majority of Americans are now using wearable sensors, which equates to well over 100 million adults. HRV and Readiness scores are increasingly being marketed as a measurement of autonomic nervous system health, a digital marker for future disease, a clock for biological age, and a holistic metric to promote healthspan and even longevity. (Apple also introduced a new longevity tab and “Health Age”.) None of this has been proven. In this edition of Ground Truths I am going to review what we know about heart rate variability and readiness scores. Heart Rate Variability HRV is the variation in normal heart cycle timing. The variability of the heart rate, the barely perceptible millisecond changes in time between consecutive heart beats (see R-R intervals in the Figure below, left panel), is due to interplay between the sympathetic and parasympathetic (vagal nerve) inputs. Distinct from heart rate, individuals with the same heart rate can have very different HRVs. It is a rough reflection of the autonomic nervous system (ANS) activity, inadequate to say whether a person’s ANS function is abnormal. For more than three decades, heart rate variability (HRV) has been measured and several studies have found an association of low HRV and clinical outcomes, particularly a link with higher all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. There have also been less well established links of low HRV to risk of early cognitive impairment, dementia, mental illness, Type 2 diabetes and substance abuse. An important reminder is that HRV is a surrogate marker without any established cause-and-effect relationship. If you increase your HRV, that doesn’t mean it will improve health outcomes. In fact, there is no hard evidence for that. All that work linking to health outcomes was done with electrocardiogram (ECG) derived HRV. Now, in the era of consumer wearables, this is getting assessed differently, by optical pulse (yes, the lights you see) plethysmography (PPG) or what is called pulse rate variability (PRV). They are not the same, as shown below (right panel) and only concordant when the delay between the ECG and pulse is kept constant, which basically means at rest. I should mention there’s also what I will call MPV, a mattress mechanical movement sensor, a derived heart rate variability, that companies like Eight Sleep use, even further away from directly measuring HRV. HRV has not one uniform measurement but many different types of quantification, such as RMSSD, the magnitude of difference between successive R-R intervals of normal sinus beats (N-N) or SDNN, the standard deviation of NN intervals, both in milliseconds. SDNN is one of the so-called frequency domain HRVs (others are LF, HF, LF/HF). Different wearable sensors use different metics; Apple has relied on SDNN and nearly all of the others use RMSSD, which is generally considered the more accurate metric. There’s also the different length of time measured, such as for a matter of minutes, all day, or an overnight’s sleep. Short measurements are especially problematic since they don’t capture enough of respiratory modulation and other factors that influence HRV. Share Ground Truths How well does HRV correlate with PRV? There are very limited studies, especially independently done. One that is commonly cited was conducted by Air Force researchers in only 13 healthy adults assessing Oura ring 3 and 4, Whoop 4.0, and Garmin Fenix 6 and showed a correlation coefficient of 0.88 to 0.97 and a mean absolute percentage error from 6 to 10%. The correlation is not a perfect 1.0, but there’s at least a fairly high level of correlation. HRV is supposed to increase during the night due to takeover of the parasympathetic nervous system, and higher during deep sleep. A recent example of my 1 week, all day “HRV,” and one during sleep is shown below. As you can see, the N of 1 data are inconsistent for the same days from different sensors (Oura, AppleWatch, Fitbit Air, and Eight Sleep) by patterns, absolute numbers, and comparison with prior days and weeks. The largest study in over 8 million Fitbit users (the old version, not Google Fitbit Air, introduced in May 2026) gives you a sense of the effect of age, sex, and the 2 different main HRV (here PRV) metrics, with RMSSD on the left and SDRR (=SDNN) on the right below. That study, from data collected in 2018, is a major outlier, since all the more recent ones are tiny with respect to sample size. Many of the companies have not had independent evaluation of their HRV, such as Eight Sleep, but have published a low standard error on their website. There are some other published studies on the correlation between HRV and PRV, but they are all small and only in healthy adults. A scoping review emphasized the lack of study in underrepresented individuals, including the aged, people of color (which affects the PPG signal), and individuals who are underweight or obese. Add the typical adult age 60 plus with one or more chronic diseases. For example, one study in over 900 adults found poor correlation of HRV and PRV, non-uniformly underestimated across many chronic diseases (cardiovascular, endocrine, neurological, respiratory, and others), concluding PRV is “an invalid surrogate for HRV.” A recent systematic review of 43 studies comparing HRV and PRV found reasonable pooled absolute standardized error (HRV as gold standard) but only 10 of the studies provided quantitative synthesis in ideal conditions. Their main conclusion was similarly cautious: “PPG-derived HRV [PRV] should not be regarded as universally interchangeable with ECG-derived HRV across all devices, populations, and recording contexts.” Factors Affecting HRV and PRV That gets me to the long list of factors that affect HRV (and PRV) besides the device, the type of measurement (RMSSD, SDNN or others), the person’s signal, the sensor site, the duration of data capture, if weighting by sleep stage is used, how artifact is processed and corrected. And this list is not complete!: Oura puts out data from their community of users (who input data) on what affects their overnight HRV. The factors currently provided are: no alcohol (increase 8%), melatonin (increase 2%, float tank (increase 2%), wine (decrease 4%), and party (decrease 14%) in overnight HRV. Must be some big parties! Subscribe What is a PRV measurement good for? It has been falsely characterized as an index of “autonomic balance” and a specific indicator of stress. A 2018 review of the studies available for HRV and its relationship to stress, not using any of the current wearables, found that stress can lower HRV. But so can many other factors. The non-specificity of the signal, indexed to the table above, is striking. Evidence from a UK Biobank study of over 46,000 participants with actual HRV looked at genetically predicted HRV, a genetic risk score, that failed to show the expected HRV-mortality link, indicating that _HRV is likely not causa_l, but rather a reflection of person’s physiologic state. A review of consumer wearable HRV data from 5 longitudinal studies showed that nighttime PRV was not associated with perceived stress, and surprisingly higher HRV, in the largest cohort (N=717 participants), was correlated with higher stress. An Oura ring cohort of 525 first-year college students found a link between overnight PRV and perceived stress, but that was also seen with resting heart rate, sleep, and respiratory rate. Several very small studies have examined the relationship of HRV and athletic injuries or guiding training with mixed, and predominantly negative results. HRV biofeedback training with paced breathing had no significant effect on reducing stress or raising HRV, as demonstrated with sham controlled trials. When HRV for multiple days showed a decline in conjunction with body temperature, the Oura ring published data for prediction of Covid. The WHOOP company sponsored an observational study, published in 2026, of 30,000 users for 72 weeks, without a control group, that reported reduced alcohol intake (5.8 % points) by self-report. That doesn’t tell us much, and particularly about the merits of HRV for behavioral change. If you use the same device and conditions as longitudinal trends for multiple (at least 2-3) weeks that may be the one way to get something useful from the measurements. Data for overnight sleep with minimal motion and using RMSSD is the best proxy for real HRV. The reason to look at trends rather than any given night is that it more likely represents something, even though you won’t know with certainty what the “it” is. Keep in mind there are no data, no peer-reviewed evidence, to show that HRV fluctuation in-person has any correlation with health outcomes. Share Readiness Scores These are proprietary scores that integrate different metrics for each of the wearables: no algorithms have been disclosed. They are unvalidated against health outcomes. In a review of 14 composite health scores of readiness and recovery, HRV contributed 86% to the scores, followed by reading heart rate (79%), physical activity and sleep duration (both at 71%). That review noted the substantial variability in measurement protools and lack of standardization. Sleep staging is notoriously inconsistent and inaccurate by these sensors, which adds further to the HRV uncertainties for what the scores, which use sleep stage data, mean. Only resting heart rate has been shown consistently across devices to be extremely accurate. I’ve made a Table to summarize what we know about which metrics are included, the scores, any peer-reviewed studies that compared the readiness score with health outcomes, and the corresponding (if any, NA-not available) citation. You will note that some companies do not use the term “readiness," such as WHOOP for recovery, and Garmin, which has 2 different scores, one of which is Body Battery. Eight Sleep uses the term “Fitness Score.” They all include HRV; Apple includes a new metric they call “Recovery HRV” which among other components uses 7-days of sleep, but it is unclear what this means or how it is differentiated from other scores (there are clearly no data for outcomes). We have no knowledge of how the different components are weighted or whether any of these scores are better than resting heart rate, HRV alone, physical activity, or any other single metric. Since none of these are standardized, they are not interchangeable, so if you get a 90 for Oura that has no relationship to a 90 on a Google Fitbit Air. Notably, the company can update its algorithm for readiness score at any point without notification to device users. Without any useful evidence of actionability for these scores or established relationship with health outcomes, it is hard to make a case for their value. At the Apple recent announcement they showed their Readiness score (0-10) on the watch (Figure below) but there are no published data on this score, not even on their website. It’s available only on their new Watch Series 12 or Ultra 4 [of course, ;-)]. That exemplifies the problems with these scores, lack of data and evidence for being meaningful to promote health. Perhaps the best study (which isn’t saying much) is the WHOOP Recovery for golfer performance, because it did correlate with an objective outcome, even though there was no control group and the authors were all from the company. Among the 389 pro golfers, an absolute 10-per cent point increase in Recovery score was associated with about 0.5 fewer strokes per round. But that’s hardly a health outcome! WHOOP is also conducting a study in over 2,700 runners to see if their recovery score will be linked to less injuries and improved performance, but that is not yet published and has no control group or randomization. Putting This in Context For two decades I’ve been enthusiastic about the potential for digital health and particularly wearable biosensors. Over the years, we’ve seen some great progress for their ability to promote physical activity and accurately detect atrial fibrillation (the first FDA cleared deep learning AI for consumers). That work was the subject of rigorous research. But there are holes in the data and evidence for other metrics. One notable one is the “VO2 max” story that I wrote about earlier this year. At that time many subscribers asked me to cover heart rate variability, which I finally got to here. When I dived into the research and publication for HRV and readiness scores, I expected to find at least some that were of high quality and demonstrated their utility by linkage to health outcomes. To my surprise, I found none. The wearable sensor measurements for HRV (PRV) are, for the most part, accurate, but that validation work has only been done in small studies of healthy adults and does not take into account the long list of factors, from the device, software side, and the user side, that affect HRV measurements. Moreover, this metric chiefly relies on optical sensing and, as we have learned for heart rate PPG sensing, may be less accurate in people of color. Keep in mind that all of the health outcome association evidence comes from ECG-derived HRV; none are from wearable sensor data. I will repeat the key point: there's no peer-reviewed evidence to show that in-person HRV fluctuation—or efforts to raise your HRV— has any correlation with health outcomes. For those of you who look at your HRV on awakening, or even 2+ week trends of it being low, I hope this context helps to relieve any anxiety. Yes, low HRV (not PRV) has been shown to increase risk of some diseases as summarized above. But efforts to raise your HRV—a surrogate metric— has not been established for improving any health outcomes. HRV does not have any evidence of causality (the genetic evidence actually goes against this possibility). In this summary, I have not included data for other wearable sensors such as Polar, Samsung, Withings, Suunto, Amazfit, Coros, Ultrahuman, or additional mattress sensors. These are beyond my first-hand experience, and as far as I know from my in-depth review none have any peer-reviewed published data that differ from the 6 sensors I’ve reviewed here. From the points I’ve gone over above, we’re not ready for readiness scores. Besides being proprietary, they are predominantly based on metrics that have their own issues. It’s compounding the problem, like building a house without a solid foundation that has never undergone a rigorous inspection, and then selling it. Like I mentioned for PRV, you can look at trends over weeks rather than any single day, to get a handle, but even that may not be helpful. There’s simply no evidence that these scores meaningfully relate to health outcomes. I’d emphasize they might, but that requires doing prospective or randomized studies to prove it. None exist. There’s great promise for HRV/PRV utility_. For example**,**_ Prof Maiken Nedergaard, who discovered the brain glymphatics that are essential in eliminating metabolic waste products from the brain during sleep, has posited that HRV could be a non-invasive marker for neuromodulator oscillations, brain-body regulatory circuits, and brain clearance. That would be extremely useful, but like everything else on HRV and readiness scores it requires solid research and validation. The lay media isn’t helping much to get the story straight. Earlier this year The Economist published a piece entitled “The most useful indicator of your overall health” which ordained HRV as an “accumulated stress score.” That’s akin to the false assertion about VO2max: “V02 max is the singular most powerful marker for longevity.” As I’ve summarized here, that is not established. The fact is that so many things can lower HRV, including physical exercise (especially an intense workout), reduced sleep quality, stress, the list above, no less the device, signal, and software. Whatever fluctuations observed have not been correlated with any health outcome. Sadly, “datamaxxers” are widely using HRV and readiness scores that have never been validated to mean anything. We already know that for some people using the sensors for sleep metrics, it can induce “orthosomnia,” an obsession to get high sleep quality, with associated high levels of anxiety. In an experiment done by a company to promote sleep quality for its employees, “For those employees who did use the trackers, many reported feeling perfectly rested until their tracker told them they had had a terrible night. Others were told that they had slept like a baby when they had actually been lying awake worrying about the quality of their sleep. “ The same problem can result from preoccupation with HRV or readiness scores, with anxiety that would lead to further reduction in both. It you are using a wearable like >100 million American adults, it’s OK to look at these data, but contextualized with the major caveats reviewed here. If you are one to require evidence that HRV or readiness scores are linked to health outcomes, you may not even want to look. The companies make it hard to turn them off! Let me end with the companies that make and sell wearables. Apple’s doubling down on HRV (24-fold more reporting and heart rate very 5 seconds) and introduction of a Readiness score tells us that consumers have bought into these metrics and they are joining the club. However, all of this is occurring with a backdrop of tens millions of users, claims about the data that are not backed up by adequate evidence, marketing way out in front of whatever limited data exists, and not being transparent about their readiness score algorithms. The companies can well afford to do the research that is needed to connect these metrics with health outcomes show, once and for all, that increasing HRV or using readiness scores promotes our health. If they believed and invested in the products they are selling, we’d not be in this position of not knowing. That’s essentially where we are with HRV and readiness scores. Perhaps someday this will change and we’ll have good reason to embrace them. NB: I wrote this post. No AI. I have no conflicts of interest with any of its content. Loading... Ground Truths has 215,000 subscribers from every US state and 214 countries. There are over 300,000 followers of Ground Truths so more than 90,000 folks who can easily convert to be free subscribers. Your subscription to these free essays and podcasts makes my work in putting them together worthwhile. If you’re not a subscriber, please join! If you found this interesting PLEASE share it! Share Ground Truths The proceeds from all voluntary paid subscriptions go to support our summer internship program. It enabled us to accept and support a record number of 62 summer interns that joined us in 2026! These are high school, college and medical students selected from thousands of applicants. We couldn’t do this expanded program without the funds coming in through Ground Truths. Thank you!

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Sep 19 • 10:05 AM EDT • Technology • erictopol.substack.com
$700 Billion Data Center Boom: Tax Gains Beat Political Backlash

Data centers need fewer city services than warehouses; electricity and water are solvable problems; and tax gains keep outweighing political backlash

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Sep 19 • 7:45 AM EDT • Politics • forbes.com
Health Journalists Visit Conservative Georgia District and Weigh AI Bioweapon Threat

KFF Health News journalists made the rounds on national and local media recently to discuss topical stories. Here’s a collection of their appearances.

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Sep 19 • 5:00 AM EDT • Health • kffhealthnews.org
UFC 331 Rivals Separated After Tense Ceremonial Weigh-In

All 24 fighters made weight in Los Angeles. The full UFC 331 card with every official weight, start times and Saturday's stakes.

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Sep 19 • 1:15 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
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Patriot dedicated to Hong Kong: business heavyweights remember Tung Chee-hwa

The South China Morning Post shares reflections from people who knew Hong Kong’s first chief executive.

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Sep 19 • 1:00 AM EDT • Business • scmp.com
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ESPN Is Asking the Wrong Question About Scoot Henderson

Instead of weighing the rookie down as a franchise savior, Portland must craft a role that harnesses his elite athleticism and playmaking within a newly balanced roster.

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Sep 18 • 9:20 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Chattanooga weighs Tennessee’s high business, low quality-of-life rankings

A recent ranking from CNBC named Tennessee the ninth best state for business, while also naming it "the worst state to live in," raising questions about what that disconnect means for Chattanooga's efforts to attract both businesses and the workers they need.

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Sep 18 • 9:15 PM EDT • Business • timesfreepress.com
Sphere Entertainment (SPHR) Stock May Be Above Fair Value On Cash Flow

Sphere Entertainment has had a powerful share price run in recent years, which naturally raises a question for anyone looking at the stock today. Are investors now paying a price that its future cash flows can reasonably support, or has enthusiasm run ahead of the underlying economics? The share price has returned about 298.0% over the past 3 years, which puts a lot of weight on the cash flow profile that underpins any intrinsic value estimate. The business model relies heavily on converting...

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Sep 18 • 8:20 PM EDT • Entertainment • finance.yahoo.com
Harvard School of Public Health Weighs Partnerships with CVS, United Healthcare, Tenet Amid Funding Uncertainty

Harvard School of Public Health Weighs Partnerships with CVS, United Healthcare, Tenet Amid Funding Uncertainty

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Sep 18 • 5:17 PM EDT • Health • thecrimson.com
The Last of Us Game Director Apologises for Dragging God of War Laufey into 'Boring' AAA Game Discussion

Bruce Straley weighs in on big budget titles

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Sep 18 • 10:45 AM EDT • Technology • pushsquare.com
Modern AAA Games Are 'Boring', Says The Last of Us Game Director

Bruce Straley weighs in on big budget titles

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Sep 18 • 10:45 AM EDT • Technology • pushsquare.com
Ethan Hawke on 'The Weight' and how kids 'open your heart'

Love movies? Live for TV? USA TODAY's Watch Party newsletter has all the best recommendations, delivered right to your inbox. Sign up now and be one of the cool kids.

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Sep 18 • 10:44 AM EDT • Entertainment • centraloregondaily.com
Engrams Embedding Entendre: Codesign for Efficient DRAM/SSD Offloading

Engram extends standard token embeddings with learned multi-token lookups. Recurring local patterns retrieve vectors directly, reducing the need to reconstruct them through attention and feed-forward layers. With Engram model architecture optimization, it allows for lower HBM capacity to be needed for models at the same quality. This does not mean there won’t be an insane demand for HBM but it just means that model architecture will continue to innovate around constraints. This model architecture design is naturally codesigned for parameter offloading: each token accesses a few embedding rows whose addresses depend on token IDs, not hidden states. The runtime can prefetch those rows from host DRAM while earlier layers compute, keeping the table outside HBM without transferring entire weight matrices. Our Memory model contains our latest estimates of quarter by quarter HBM, DRAM, & NAND supply and demand. Offloading frees HBM for model weights and KV cache, potentially supporting larger batches or more concurrent sessions. When DRAM becomes the next constraint, NVMe offers another tier. Recommendation systems already cache frequently or recently accessed embedding rows in faster memory while backing colder rows with SSDs. After NVIDIA roadmap had to change due to massively despec’ing Rubin Ultra from 1024GB to now ~200GB of HBM per chip, model architecture optimizations like emgram maybe helpful. Our DeepSeek-V4.1-Flash configuration uses roughly 189 GiB of memory for Engram. We replace it with a memory-mapped (mmap) file and measure serving performance with offload to SSD. Later on in our report, we will show our Engram offloading experiments along with the official InferenceX agentic inference serving results on Engram models like DeepSeekv4.1 Flash across all 6 NVIDIA GPU SKUs along with MI355X. Unsurprisingly, the CUDA Moat is still mogging MI355X on the ultra popular DeepSeekV4.1 Flash model. We also show how even on high capacity HBM SKUs, offloading emgrams to DRAM could result in even better performance for most of the pareto than keeping the emgram in HBM. Our benchmark has been widely reproduced, validated and/or supported by almost every major buyer of compute from Google Cloud to Microsoft Azure to Oracle, to Meta and many more. Furthermore, it has the support of the ML community including from vLLM, LMCache, SGLang, PyTorch, Huggingface and the support of major labs like OpenAI, MiniMax, ZAI, Qwen, Moonshot Kimi, etc. Star the InferenceX GitHub repository if you find the open-source benchmark and data useful!. InferenceX is the only inference benchmark in the world to have TPUv7, Jalapeño, Nvidia Rubin NVL72, AMD, and soon, SambaNova and Trainium. Due to how realistic AgentX scenario is to real world agentic inference workloads, AMD has committed to collaborating on MI455X UALoE72 too. DeepSeek did not release the original paper’s two trained Engram models. We replicated its setup on fineweb-edu using the released code and training hyperparameters, at an estimated 6E18 FLOPs per run. We observed the same U-shape scaling: Engram improved performance over pure MoE baselines. We also reproduced DeepSeek’s results, where earlier-layer representations with Engram resembled those of later layers. Like the original Engram paper, it is possible to probe Engram’s gate scores to see what n-grams DeepSeek-V4.1-Flash makes the most use of. Our gate scan finds names, code fragments, relational phrasing, and boilerplate. These examples prioritize interesting-ness over gate strength. One unexpected result was Wright : Ace Attorney. These examples suggest learned memory optimizes the training objective, not a judgment of which facts deserve storage. Licenses, bibliography fragments, API scaffolding, and website furniture can provide prediction shortcuts, so the value of additional Engram capacity may depend on what survives data preparation. This does not show that table capacity is “wasted”: the evaluation-corpus scan establishes neither training exposure nor the capacity occupied by each category. For offloading, strong gates do not identify cache-hot rows. Low gates do not automatically save reads either: computing the gate requires the retrieved key and undoes the performance gain of a fused kernel. Skipping reads would require a separate usefulness predictor before retrieval. In the original paper’s inference-time ablation, factual-knowledge benchmarks retained just 29–44% of their original performance, while reading comprehension retained 81–93%. This is due to the training–inference mismatch. The resulting degradation therefore measures this trained model’s dependence on Engram, not the performance difference between models trained with and without it. In our ablations, suppressing Engram worsens token likelihood across all evaluated domains, especially encyclopedia text and several code corpora. Surprisingly, GSM8K accuracy stays within measured run-to-run variation and removing Engram has no effect. Engram is not a detachable dictionary beside an unchanged MoE. Removing it changes downstream features and expert selection. We tested whether rerouting hurts or compensates by holding tokens fixed in a teacher-forced experiment on CRUXEval, a code-reasoning benchmark of small Python functions where the model predicts a function’s output from its code and an input, and scoring the reference answer. Removing Engram raised answer loss from 0.2848 to 0.3093 bits/token. Forcing the ablated model to use the original Engram-on expert choices made it worse still, at 0.3375 bits/token. Rerouting partially compensates for the missing memory. Memory features and expert selection work together, rather than following a clean “memory stores facts; experts reason” division. On the same CRUXeval, removing Engram during either phase reduced accuracy and increased generated tokens; removing it throughout produced the largest changes. Keeping Engram for prefill leads to more correct answers than keeping for decode likely due to semantically richer KV cache transferred to decode workers, allowing it to mitigate some of the performance loss. Engram’s table is large, but each lookup is small. DeepSeek-V4.1-Flash requests 24 rows at each of two Engram layers, about 12.4 KiB per processed token position across the model, or 3.1 KiB per GPU when split across four GPUs. Currently as of Day 7 since Model Release, MI355X is still 2-4x worse performance per dollar compared to B200 even when normalized by Mi355X’s lower TCO. Our full total cost of ownership breakdown comes from our AI Cloud TCO Model along with monthly market surveys of over 100+ gpu clouds & gpu cloud customers. On the Day 0 release of DeepSeekv4.1 Flash, NVIDIA vLLM works out of the box with zero issues across all 6 SKUs: H100, H200, B200, B300, GB200, GB300! This was thanks to the amazing work by the NVIDIA & Interact teams! In comparison, AMD vLLM did not work on day 0 for DeepSeekv4.1 Flash.Source: SemiAnalysis InferenceX AMD’s vLLM documentation points to using vllm/vllm-openai-rocm:deepseekv41-flash-0909, but from hour 0 of the model release to hour 23, AMD has not publicly released the image. AMD claims, “SPEED IS THE MOAT,” yet it has still not released it by the 23rd hour. We wish that, going forward, the AMD team has a better process for hour 0 model releases. Eventually when they did publicly release for “day 0” image support, performance-wise, it is currently up to 14.8x worse perf per dollar than H200 and up to 42x worse perf per dollar than B200/B300. The power of the CUDA MOAT is NVIDIA’s collaboration with its massive 6 million-developer community ecosystem including most of the vLLM & SGLang & Tokenspeed maintainers which means that CUDA is optimized on day 0. Overall, AMD did make significant improvements but the performance per dollar is still currently 2-4x worse than B200. AgentX Engram DRAM Offloading Improving Performance The HBM and DRAM offload use the same GPU kernel to select and dequantize rows. With HBM, it reads GPU memory; with Unified Virtual Addressing (UVA), it reads pinned host memory directly. Both support full decode graphs. Moving the table into HBM accelerates only the sparse lookup, leaving decoder computation and communication unchanged, resulting in little overall benefit while consuming memory otherwise available to KV cache. Another benefit of Engram offloaded to DRAM which means you can reduce the communication overhead by using less HBM GPUs per replica. For example, when enabling Engram offloading on B300, we are able to switch from TP4 to now TP2 which improves the pareto curve by up to 1.6x. When iso-model quality, less HBM is required as the engrams could be offloaded to host DRAM. Thus HBM bandwidth matters way more than HBM capacity. For inference workloads where memory bandwidth matters the most, 4-hi HBM provides the best $/bandwidth and therefore lowest cost per token. If China continues to make more and more revolutionary model architecture innovations, soon it could potentially 0Hi HBM stacks. [ ](https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/long-live-the-short-king-why-4-hi) [ Long Live the Short King: Why 4-hi HBM Wins ](https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/long-live-the-short-king-why-4-hi) Myron Xie, Bryan Shan, and 3 others · Sep 13 [ Read full story ](https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/long-live-the-short-king-why-4-hi) Moreover, on B300 and week-0 stack, moving the Engram table back to HBM did not improve results and stay within run-to-run variance. This is a result of the work optimizing DRAM offload, such as async, and overlap. SSD Offloading On B200, we created a unoptimized vLLM fork and stored the Engram tables in memory-mapped files on local SSDs. File backing lets the OS reclaim table pages when other applications need RAM. Pages already cached in memory can be served without reading the SSD again. Furthermore, note that we were unable to turn on GDS The unoptimized SSD implementation changes how rows reach the GPU. It copies row IDs to the CPU, deduplicates them, gathers the requested rows into pinned buffers, copies those rows back to the GPU and dequantizes them. This work runs between segments of the GPU execution graph. Native UVA performs row selection and dequantization directly on the GPU, avoiding the CPU round trip. A warm filesystem cache removes physical SSD reads, but leaves the coordination, row gathering and transfers. This is why a file already cached in RAM can still perform worse than a pinned DRAM table. The comparison measures the whole serving path; it does not separate the time spent on each of these operations. B200 DRAM dominates both measured SSD serving curves in total tokens per dollar and P90 interactivity. Near 125 tokens/s/user, DRAM delivers 121 million total tokens per dollar versus 52 million for SSD. For production serving, SSD offloading is likely not worth the tradeoff. On the B200 configurations we measured, SSD offloading loses on both measures: every observed SSD point has a DRAM alternative that delivers higher P90 interactivity and more total tokens per dollar. The only points where Cheaper storage does not automatically produce a cheaper inference service. Moving Engram to SSD leaves the same four expensive GPUs and the rest of the server in place. Reclaiming RAM only creates an economic benefit if it enables a cheaper server configuration or additional useful capacity. The current unoptimized path provides neither benefit, and the filesystem cache still consumes RAM when table pages are resident. Next we will look at the mechanisms and specific implementation of ngrams from DeepSeekv4.1 Flash, LongCat, Qwen3.8 Flash Next.

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Sep 18 • 10:35 AM EDT • Technology • newsletter.semianalysis.com
Young Michigan voters cozy up to DSA agenda to abolish Senate, upend political system

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Sep 18 • 3:36 AM EDT • Business • finance.yahoo.com
Nestle weighing all options after Kremlin moves to seize Russia business

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Hot Ticket: Anchors aweigh for a weekend of island adventures

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AI reshapes political campaigns as South Carolina weighs whether new rules are needed

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AI reshaping political campaigns as SC weighs whether new rules are needed

Artificial intelligence is rapidly changing the way political campaigns operate, allowing candidates to create content faster and often at a fraction of the cost of traditional campaign operations.

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Sep 17 • 3:24 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
iPhone 18 Pro Unboxing: New Colors, Better Photos, and Smaller Dynamic Island

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Sep 17 • 2:34 PM EDT • Technology • macrumors.com
Health insurers covered 112,000 fewer Mass. residents’ GLP-1 weight-loss drugs this year, report finds

Insurers restricted coverage for obesity after years of financial losses.

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Sep 17 • 12:00 PM EDT • Health • bostonglobe.com