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GOP, Dem challenger hit Rebecca Cooke for outside political work
Rebecca Cooke cultivates an image as a political outsider, but her opponents say that masks her years of outside work for Democratic groups.
Scrutiny of Hegseth mounts as Democrats attempt to rein in Trump administration over Iran war
House Democrats file impeachment articles against Trump’s defense secretary as Senate Democrats fail to pass measures to check White House power over Iran war
Talarico Leads a Democratic Cash Surge: 7 Takeaways From 2026 Filings
Democrats in key Senate races out-raised their Republican rivals, but super PACs on the right are poised to play a powerful role in the midterms, new campaign finance filings showed.
Largely secret donors pour millions into election that could tip Congress
Most of the almost $100 million raised to influence the vote, heavily favoring Democrats, comes from nonprofits that don’t have to disclose their donors.
Drugmakers raised prices on hundreds of drugs despite Trump deals, Senate Democrats report finds
The findings raise questions about whether the administration’s “most favored nation” deals are having a meaningful impact on patients.
‘He’s got a lot of stamina:’ What to watch as the RFK Jr. hearing blitz kicks off
Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will make the case for the Trump budget. Democrats will test his political acumen.
Former Pence aide turned Trump critic, Olivia Troye, launches congressional campaign as a Democrat
Meet the Democrats running for Hamilton County commissioner
It's a battle of local government officials this May in the Democratic primary for Hamilton County commissioner.
McMorrow seizes Senate fundraising lead. Rogers holds cash advantage
Democrat Mallory McMorrow raised the most money in the first quarter of the U.S. Senate race, while the GOP's Mike Rogers had the most cash on hand.
House Democrats attempt anti-corruption message to gain traction against Trump
Days after Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán was ousted by an opposition campaign with an anti-corruption message, Democrats want to try the same playbook against President Donald Trump before the midterm elections.
La. Senate panel OKs bill to indoctrinate teens in conservative 'success' ideology
Two Black Democrats on the committee, Katrina Jackson-Andrews and Sidney Barthelemy II, objected to naming the bill after far-right activist Charlie Kirk, who had a history of publicly making racist and other derogatory comments.
Democratic lawmakers seek fix to Colorado’s stalled prison population plan
Colorado’s prison population plan was designed to prevent overcrowding. Instead, eight months after it was triggered, the system remains strained and largely ineffective, prompting two Democratic lawmakers to push for changes through new legislation. According to its sponsors, Senate Bill 036 lays out the proposed changes. Sen. Mike Weissman and Sen. Julie Gonzales say the […]
Senate again votes against ending Iran war. But tougher votes are coming
The Senate on Wednesday again blocked a resolution that would halt American hostilities against Iran. Democrats aren't done forcing similar votes.
Delaware Democrats push for an earlier primary day
Evelyn Brady, the State Chair of the Delaware Democratic Party, discussed her state's bid for an early primary.
Inside the sudden downfall of Eric Swalwell
As one California Democrat prepared to formally endorse Rep. Eric Swalwell for governor this spring, the lawmaker hesitated. They had heard rumors the married father of three slept around in Washington and worried about putting their name behind him in a crucial contest.
The main issues Democratic candidates will focus on in 2028
Democrats are facing a new political arena without Trump as an opponent
‘We need to have another reckoning’, that’s what one Democratic influencer says Congress needs nearly a decade after #MeToo
Taxing millionaires and billionaires is a political no brainer for Democrats
The American financial elite have benefited from tax breaks while the rest of the population struggles, leading to a push for tax reform and increased taxation on the wealthy.
http://democrats-energycommerce.house.gov/media/press-releases/pallone-opening-remarks-subcommittee-legislative-hearing-public-health-bills
Energy and Commerce Committee Ranking Member Frank Pallone, Jr. (D-NJ) delivered the following opening remarks at a Health Subcommittee legislative hearing on "Healthier America: Legislative Proposals to Improve Public Health:"
Can Europe create artificial intelligence that we actually understand?
Artificial intelligence is currently controlled by a number of tech giants in the United States and China. One professor believes Europe can choose to take a smarter and more democratic path.
'Compassionate and principled': Shevrin Jones endorses Brice Barnes in open CD 2
The Democrat in line for Senate leadership says Barnes is the best choice to flip the district blue.
Ranking Member Sykes' Opening Statement at Hearing on Scientific Publishing
The House Committee on Science, Space and Technology
Ranking Member Lofgren Opening Statement at Hearing on Scientific Publishing
The House Committee on Science, Space and Technology
Planned Parenthood endorses Mills in Maine U.S. Senate race
Mills is in a three-way Democratic primary on the June 9 ballot. She faces Sullivan oyster farmer and veteran Graham Platner and former federal official David Costello of Brunswick.
Gavin Newsom faces growing pressure to intervene in a scrambled California governor’s race
The scrambled race for California governor left in the wake of Eric Swalwell’s sexual misconduct allegations isn’t officially Gov. Gavin Newsom’s mess. But it’s one that many top Democrats want him to consider trying to clean up.
Worried about the midterms, Republicans mobilize rural Virginia voters against redistricting
Republican groups are mounting an intensifying, 11th-hour campaign to mobilize rural voters ahead of Virginia’s April 21 referendum to redraw its US House maps. At stake are as many as four US House seats Democrats want to redraw in their favor for the midterms. To maximize Democratic advantage, the map would put wealthy Washington, DC, suburbs in the same districts as farm communities 90 miles away, including in one misshapen district nicknamed the “lobster claw.”
How Eric Swalwell rose to the top of Democratic politics as rumors followed him
Allies like Rep. Nancy Pelosi and Sen. Ruben Gallego say they knew nothing about the misconduct allegations, with Gallego saying the congressman led a “double life.”
Comer, Democrats spar over Bondi testimony schedule
Rep. James Comer and his Democratic counterpart on the House Oversight Committee are sparring over a subpoena of former Attorney General Pam Bondi.
Swalwell resigns from Congress following allegations of sexual misconduct
Once a rising star in the Democratic party, Eric Swalwell's stunning fall from grace was cemented Tuesday as his resignation letter was read by the House Clerk.
Swalwell resigns from Congress following allegations of sexual misconduct
Once a rising star in the Democratic party, Eric Swalwell's stunning fall from grace was cemented Tuesday as his resignation letter was read by the House Clerk.
Senate Democrats outline amendment strategy as budget debate nears
Members of the Colorado Senate met with their respective caucuses on Tuesday to discuss the state’s proposed $46.8 billion budget for fiscal year 2026-2027, which passed through the House over the weekend following lengthy debate. The full Senate will begin debating the budget on Wednesday. Joint Budget Committee members Sens. Jeff Bridges and Judy Amabile […]
Trump again rejects Colorado amid accusations of playing politics with disaster aid
FORT COLLINS, Colo. (AP) — President Donald Trump has again denied a request from Colorado's governor to help people affected by wildfires and flooding, consistent with his approval of major disaster aid to Republican-leaning states at about twice the rate he approves aid requests from Democratic...
Democrats aim to keep their special election gains going: From the Politics Desk
Plus, Reps. Eric Swalwell and Tony Gonzales officially resign.
What Swalwell’s exit means for Democrats in California’s governor race
Billionaire Tom Steyer and ex-congresswoman Katie Porter stand to benefit the most in a Democratic field with no clear front-runner, several strategists said.
Democrats float 25th Amendment commission for Trump
Democrats in Congress introduce a bill to invoke the 25th Amendment against President Donald Trump, citing national security concerns.
Democrats seek to overturn Trump's new rules for student loan forgiveness
Democrats in Congress are trying to overturn the Trump administration's changes to a student loan forgiveness program | WWJ Newsradio 950
Maryland Gov. Wes Moore falls short in bid to redraw congressional map to boost Democrats
A proposal for a new Maryland congressional map has officially died with the conclusion of the state's legislative session.
Woman alleges violent sexual assault by Eric Swalwell: 'He raped me’
A day after Rep. Eric Swallwell said he would resign from Congress, a Beverly Hills woman detailed what she described as a violent sexual encounter with the Democratic lawmaker.
Democrats line up to run in Virginia congressional districts, even before voters approve them
Virginia voters are set to decide next week on a Democratic-drawn redistricting plan that could boost the party's chances in the U.S. House | TALK 980am
Will Democrats try to remove Trump from office?
Impeachment, 25th Amendment are likely to fall short
Critics blast Democrats after Swalwell resignation, say saga shows ‘how politics really works’
Rep. Eric Swalwell's resignation amid sexual abuse allegations draws fierce criticism, with pundits claiming Democrats sat on the dirt for years.
House Republicans Step Up Scrutiny of ActBlue Over Foreign Donations
Three Republican-led committees, responding to a New York Times report this month, accused the Democratic fund-raising organization of withholding documents from a subpoena request.
What happens to the California governor's race after Swalwell's exit?
In a crowded race with no clear leader in the heavily Democratic state, Rep. Eric Swalwell's exit presents an opportunity for his one-time rivals to pick off former supporters just weeks before mail ballots go to voters.
'Pagan' outreach, Wiccan prayer defense could haunt Dem in battleground race
Iowa Democratic candidate and Lutheran minister Sarah Trone Garriott backed a Wiccan witch's prayer, saying Jesus engaged with pagans multiple times.
Olivia Troye, former Pence adviser turned Trump critic, launches Democratic bid for US House from Virginia
Olivia Troye, a former adviser to Vice President Mike Pence, announced Tuesday that she would run for Congress as a Democrat in Virginia’s proposed new 7th District, pending passage of a sweeping redistricting referendum this month.
Olivia Troye, Ex-Pence Aide, Runs for the House as a Democrat
After spending most of her Washington career as a Republican, she joins a crowded field of Democrats running in a Virginia district that doesn’t exist yet.
Former Pence adviser Olivia Troye runs for Congress as a Democrat
Troye, who resigned from the White House in 2020 and became a vocal critic of President Trump, will run in Virginia's redrawn 7th Congressional District, which is Democratic-friendly.
House returns as two lawmakers vow to resign amid scandals
Representatives Eric Swalwell, a California Democrat, and Tony Gonzales, a Texas Republican, announced Monday they would resign amid scrutiny over their conduct
Opinion: 3 things Democrats should do to support small business in CT
New Haven's Caroline Tanbee Smith outlines 3 pillars of strategy to boost small business in Connecticut.
Jan-Werner Müller awarded University professorship, reflects on democracy and academic freedom
Jan-Werner Müller, scholar of democratic theory and the history of political thought, was named Class of 1943 University Professor of Politics. He sat down with the ‘Prince’ to discuss his research, teaching, the role of political theory, and concerns about student engagement and academic freedom on campus.
Gov. Wes Moore falls short in push to redraw Maryland's congressional map to boost Democrats
A proposal for a new Maryland congressional map has officially died with the conclusion of the state’s legislative session
Congressional candidate Jack Schlossberg thinks Democrats need a makeover
He told NY1 that thinks he can come out on top of a crowded Democratic primary field to represent parts of Manhattan.
Political newcomer running for Rep. Golden's seat in US House
At 29 years old, Paige Loud is the youngest candidate in the Democratic primary race for Maine's 2nd Congressional District.
What Happens in California Governor’s Race After Eric Swalwell Stepped Down?
For Democrats, the drama is reverberating well beyond the state.
Rep. Eric Swalwell will resign from Congress following sexual misconduct allegations
The California Democrat said in a statement he was “deeply sorry to my family, staff and constituents for mistakes in judgment I’ve made in my past.”
Donalds says FL should counter Democrats by redistricting. That’s illegal here
Byron Donalds said “Florida needs to respond” to Virginia by redrawing Congressional districts, but partisan gerrymandering is barred here.
Cook Political Report shifts four Senate races toward Democrats
The Cook Political Report shifted four Senate races to the left on Monday but noted that the GOP is still favored to maintain its majority in the upper chamber this November. “With an increasingly…
‘Consider it one more sign of the decline in the democratic experiment’
Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
Texas House Democrats fined each over $8K for quorum break
The committee tallied the combined penalties at over $421,000.
Poll: Democrats gaining ground, key races tighten in Florida as Donald Trump drags GOP
Independent voters are breaking sharply toward Democrats, a shift pollsters say could reshape Florida’s political map after years of Republican dominance.
Swalwell’s Fall Punctuates Woes of Democrats in California, of All Places
Democrats have struggled to find a candidate for governor who can capture the imagination of voters in one of their most important strongholds.
Democrat-Leaning Plan Takes Aim At Health Insurers With Proposed New Regulations
Healthcare initiatives being proposed like Patients' Bill of Rights offer a roadmap for Democrats’ priorities, with midterms looming and a presidential election in 2028.
Swalwell exits California governor's race after assault allegations
Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell’s abrupt exit from the race for California governor left his rivals scrambling to lock down his former supporters in a crowded contest with no clear leader, injecting more turmoil into the campaign to lead the nation’s most populous state.
Calls grow for Eric Swalwell to resign from House amid sexual assault allegations
The California Democrat suspended his campaign for governor amid sexual assault and misconduct allegations by a former staff member and at least three other women
After Charlie Kirk’s Death, a Fight for the Youth Vote
A fledgling Democratic group and the far-right white nationalist Nick Fuentes seek to make gains on college campuses that have recently been dominated by Turning Point USA.
Michigan U.S. Senate 'primary storm' captivates, but worries Democrats
For decades, Democrats have avoided competitive primary contests to pick the party's nominees for U.S. Senate. That's not the case this year.
Zohran Mamdani celebrates ‘pothole politics’ in a raucous rally marking 100 days as NYC mayor
Having just marked his first 100 days as New York mayor, Zohran Mamdani told a roaring crowd of supporters, city workers and political allies his administration has already delivered evidence a democratic socialist can, in fact, govern.
Zohran Mamdani touted socialist philosophy of 'pothole politics' while reviewing first 100 days as mayor
"I was elected as a Democratic socialist," he said in a speech on his first 100 days as mayor. "And I will govern as a Democratic socialist."
Eric Swalwell drops bid for California governor after sexual misconduct allegations
The Democratic candidate faced immediate calls to end his campaign, with many supporters withdrawing their endorsements.
Eric Swalwell ends campaign for California governor after sexual misconduct allegations
Rep. Eric Swalwell said Sunday he would withdraw from the California governor’s race in the wake of allegations of sexual misconduct that led to a nearly immediate campaign collapse, as staffers quit and prominent Democratic supporters urged him to drop out.
Eric Swalwell ends campaign for California governor after sexual misconduct allegations
Rep. Eric Swalwell said Sunday he would withdraw from the California governor’s race in the wake of allegations of sexual misconduct that led to a nearly immediate campaign collapse, as staffers quit and prominent Democratic supporters urged him to drop out.
Leah Halton-Pope named Democratic candidate for 141st Assembly District
It comes after Crystal Peoples-Stokes announced this past week she would not seek reelection.
AIPAC may be a new litmus test for Democratic candidates. Leaders say voters' heads are elsewhere.
Last week's Democratic National Committee meeting illustrated a party trying to stay focused on economic issues while grappling with strong, changing opinions on Israel.
Calls grow for Eric Swalwell to exit politics over sexual assault allegations
An expanding number of Democrats, including fellow Californians, are asking their House colleague to quit his campaign for governor and resign from Congress.
Calls grow for Rep. Swalwell to resign or be expelled over misconduct claims
Several Democratic and Republican lawmakers said they would be in favor of voting to expel Swalwell, as well as Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-Texas), who both face misconduct allegations.
Weekly Briefing: Israel is losing its grip on U.S. politics
Support for Israel is collapsing in U.S. politics. The Iran war has fractured the MAGA base, military aid has become a Democratic litmus test, and AIPAC is losing primaries.
Fallout from Eric Swalwell scandal grows as lawmakers eye House expulsion votes
The political crisis surrounding Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell is rapidly escalating into a broader bipartisan showdown that could reshape the makeup of the House.
California Democrats Rushed to Back Eric Swalwell — and Quickly Abandoned Him
Representative Eric Swalwell, a Washington figure, was largely unknown in the California State Capitol. But influential groups began backing him for governor in the weeks before he was publicly accused of sexual assault.
Stein questions whether state’s data center incentives still make sense
Sales tax exemptions could cost N.C. $450 million as new data centers come online, the Democratic governor said.
The Guardian view on AI politics: US datacentre protests are a warning to big tech
Editorial: In both Republican and Democratic states, scepticism and hostility towards an unregulated construction boom is growing
'Euphoria' Season 3 returns with new plot and dedications
After four years, 'Euphoria' Season 3 premieres this weekend, dedicated to Angus Cloud and others. What to know.
Column: Bye, bye Eric. Swalwell needs to go
Swalwell needs to drop out of the governor's race and resign from Congress.
As Swalwell’s campaign unravels, his rivals in California governor’s race scramble for an opening
The sexual misconduct allegations against Rep. Eric Swalwell are damaging his hopes of winning the governor’s race, with former allies revoking their endorsements and a growing list of prominent Democrats telling him to withdraw.
The most important Democratic health care debate is raging again
Single payer is getting a second wind.
Pope Leo for president someday? Don't even think about it
A recent meeting between Pope Leo XIV and Democratic strategist David Axelrod at the Vatican sparks some intrigue and slight political speculation.
Democrats see gas prices as a potent political tool. Here’s the catch.
President Donald Trump’s attack on Iran sent gas prices surging, giving Democrats’ focus on affordability more traction if they can get voters to trust them.
Health Secretary Wes Streeting to face questions on Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg
This week, Victoria Derbyshire is stepping in for Laura Kuenssberg. Tory MP James Cartlidge and Liberal Democrats leader Ed Davey will also be on the show.
Former ‘Citgo 6’ political prisoner sees ‘karma’ in Maduro ouster, but Venezuelan oil won’t rebound until there’s true regime change
Former 'Citgo Six' captive sees democratic elections as the only way to build international business trust in Venezuela again.
State floats major mental health funding shift that could jeopardize North Bay mobile crisis teams
The proposed shift would shoulder counties with as much as $130 million annually to sustain the programs. For many, it would open a gap they can’t fill.
Takeaways From the First Big Gathering of Potential 2028 Democratic Candidates
The National Action Network convention showcased similarities and some differences in a wide open field of possible contenders.
Jerry Demings continues to lag behind David Jolly in fundraising race for Democratic gubernatorial nomination
The former Republican has a five-to-one financial edge over the Central Florida political veteran.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
Aerospace engineer who worked on Artemis II thanks middle school science teachers
A little more than a decade ago, Nate Eller was an standout student at Twin Hills Middle School in Sebastopol. Today, he’s an aerospace engineer at NASA who played a role in the Artemis II mission.
The California governor’s race was already a mess for Dems. Now what?
Democrats have struggled for months over how to handle the governor’s race. Will the Eric Swalwell scandal be a unifying moment?
Texas House committee slaps Democrats with nearly $422K in penalties for 2025 quorum break
The Committee on House Administration voted along party lines to fine 50-plus Democratic members more than $8,000 apiece for fleeing the state to try to block a GOP-led congressional redistricting plan.
How Congress’s bipartisan high point led to our era of political rancor
36 years ago, a Republican president and Democratic lawmakers produced monumental laws. Now, a broken Congress has enabled Trump to undo key parts of that legacy.
Inside Iowa Politics: Rob Sand’s plan to change elections
Democratic gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand wants to change Iowa's primary election system.
Inside Iowa Politics: Rob Sand’s plan to change elections
Democratic gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand wants to change Iowa's primary election system.
Inside Iowa Politics: Rob Sand’s plan to change elections
Democratic gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand wants to change Iowa's primary election system.
Democrats denounce Trump’s plan to use foreign steel in White House ballroom
A New York Times report that the president was accepting a donation of foreign steel for the ballroom was seized on by Democrats.