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The 2026 International Academicians Hong Kong Forum Held in Hong Kong, Focusing on AI-Driven Innovation in Health and Higher Education
The 2026 International Academicians Hong Kong Forum, jointly organised by the International Alliance of Academicians (IAA) and the Hong Kong Association of Overseas-Returned Scholars (HKAORS), was successfully held in Hong Kong on April 14. As one of the major events of the Business of Innovation and Technology Week 2026, the Forum focused on two core themes: "Aging and Chronic Disease Management: Challenges and Innovations" and "AI and Innovation in Higher Education." It brought together more t
Tyrese Maxey-led Sixers outlast Magic in play-in tournament, will face Celtics in first round of playoffs
Philadelphia is returning to the playoffs after missing out last season.
Great Texas Balloon Race announces 2026 entertainment lineup, new event
The Great Texas Balloon Race will land again in Longview in June, bringing with it dozens of hot air balloon pilots, a Longview native Country music icon, the return of the fan favorite drone show, and a new morning event.
Statement From Live Nation Entertainment
The jury’s verdict is not the last word on this matter. Pending motions will determine whether the liability and damages rulings stand. Live Nation will soon renew its motion for judgment as a matter of law, which the Court deferred until after the jury returned its verdict. That motion addresses all…
In the House, Republican Plans Go Awry Amid Party Divides
Fresh off a two-week break, lawmakers returned to turmoil in the House, where legislation to reopen the Department of Homeland Security is stalled and the G.O.P. is struggling to keep its agenda on track.
Will Mississippi Legislature try to override one of the governor's vetoes?
Legislators haven't set a public agenda for their one-day return, but top of mind for Gov. Tate Reeves is the Rural Health Transformation Fund,
A reimagined 'Cats' on Broadway features a special cat — an actor from the original 1980s musical
Ken Ard makes a triumphant return to Broadway in “Cats: The Jellicle Ball.” | KCBS All News 106.9FM and 740AM
Preview: UFC Winnipeg Prelims
The UFC Winnipeg undercard features several debuting Canadian prospects—and the Octagon return of one well-remembered heavyweight character.
Every Gift Counts: UT Health Sciences Giving Day Returns April 21
“Travis was bigger than life but loved by all.” For Jeff Adams, MD, that memory of his late classmate Travis Brannon, MD, still captures what made the College of Medicine’s Class of 1986 so close.
Why 2025 Topps Chrome Football is the most anticipated sports card release of 2026
With buybacks, bounties and even FaceTime chats with Tom Brady, the hype surrounding Topps' return to licensed NFL cards has been massive.
El Paso Science Festival returns; Third Thursdays activate Downtown Arts District
The El Paso Science Festival and Third Thursdays lead a week of events, from cultural festivals and art openings to outdoor activities and community fundraisers.
‘Doc’: Could Felicity Huffman Return as Joan in Season 3?
'We've talked about Joan coming back and being the ghost that haunts the halls of Westside.'
Dundee can take nothing for granted in bottom-six battle
For all I have been praising Dundee in recent times, the stark truth is they find themselves in their current predicament because their points return has not been good enough having won just two of their past 12 Premiership games. Head coach Steven Pressley praised the "character", "personality" and "resilience" his side showed as they twice came from behind to draw 2-2 at Killie last Saturday. In the 15 league games the Dark Blues have played against the other teams in the bottom half this season – Dundee United, Aberdeen, St Mirren, Kilmarnock and Livingston - Pressley's side have won five, drawn six and lost four.
Maine lawmakers adjourn with unfinished business, may return to handle vetoes
State lawmakers wrapped up their legislative session a day early on Tuesday but left several issues unresolved.
How the European Space Agency became the quiet power in planetary science and what its institutional model reveals about building consensus across 22 nations
The European Space Agency's 22-nation consensus model appears slow and bureaucratic, but it has produced one of the most quietly productive planetary science programs on Earth. Understanding its institutional design reveals how distributed commitment, geographic return, and mandatory science funding create missions that survive political disruptions no single nation's program could weather.
Lowering taxes would help make Wisconsin more competitive
WI tax climate is failing its families and businesses as other states and the nation work to keep more money in the pockets of those who earn it.
Sabres’ playoff return has business of hockey booming in Buffalo again
The Sabres' attendance, TV ratings and merchandise sales have surged with Buffalo's first playoff team since 2011.
Sport, Culture and Brand: Juventus Brought Black&White to Chengdu
Following the success of the Youth Carnival event in Shanghai, Juventus returned to China, bringing its colours to Chengdu from 10 to 12 April 2026. The three-day initiative was dedicated to sport, cu...
Billy Crystal eyes return to Broadway in one-man show about the house he lost to LA wildfires
Billy Crystal returns to Broadway this fall with an intimate one-man show called "860." | Talk 1370
Billy Crystal will return to Broadway in one-man show about the house he lost to LA wildfires
Billy Crystal returns to Broadway this fall with an intimate one-man show called "860." | WWL
Billy Crystal will return to Broadway in one-man show about the house he lost to LA wildfires
Billy Crystal returns to Broadway this fall with an intimate one-man show called "860." | WBBM Newsradio 780 AM & 105.9 FM
Minnesota business owner facing dozens of tax charges
A Minnesota woman is facing dozens of charges related to filing fraudulent tax returns.
SB 1397: Better Science = Better Policy
Managing California’s majestic mountain lion population, particularly in areas of conflict with areas where humans...
Dodgers being cautious with Mookie Betts’ return from oblique injury
LOS ANGELES — Technically, Wednesday’s series finale against the New York Mets is the first day Dodgers shortstop Mookie Betts is eligible to return from the injured list. But he won’t be returning any time soon from his oblique strain, taking a more deliberate approach in his rehab. “He’s moving well. I see him throwing, […]
Fischer: LeBron James, Lakers not 'shutting the door' on return
Fischer: LeBron James, Lakers not 'shutting the door' on return
Two Sporting stars could miss their trip to Arsenal
Sporting Club will be aiming to overturn their first leg defeat to Arsenal when the two sides meet in the Champions League quarter-final return leg at the Emirates Stadium tomorrow. The Portuguese clu...
‘A great fight town.’ UFC returns to Philly as latest major sports event planned for 2026
UFC 330 will be the MMA promotion’s first event in the city since 2019, and the first “numbered” event here since 2011.
What's new at Kings Island this year? Highly anticipated ride, entertainment & more
Kings Island is ready to open for the season, with new and returning rides, entertainment and more.
Steelers LB Patrick Queen Reveals Odds on Aaron Rodgers’ Return
Like everyone, Pittsburgh Steelers linebacker Patrick Queen is just waiting to hear if four-time NFL MVP quarterback Aaron Rodgers will […] This article originally appeared on Steelers Now: Steelers LB Patrick Queen Reveals Odds on Aaron Rodgers’ Return
Congress returns to a packed health care agenda
The key health care issues we're watching as Congress returns from recess.
Balloons Over Bend Brings Family Fun, Night Glows & High-Flying Entertainment to Central Oregon
The REMAX Key Properties Balloons Over Bend is set to return July 24–26, 2026, bringing a weekend of hot air balloon launches, live entertainment, and community celebration to Central Oregon. This signature summer event will feature free sunrise balloon launches each morning, vibrant Night Glow celebrations, and activities for all ages. “Bend is more than a […]
Here’s Why JDP Capital Management Exited Its Position in Caesars Entertainment (CZR)
JDP Capital Management, an investment management company, released its “Survivor & Thriver Fund” first-quarter 2026 investor letter. A copy of the letter can be downloaded here. In the first quarter, the fund declined 15.1% net to investors compared to the S&P 500’s -4.3% return. Concerns about AI destruction fears and consumer softness impacted market sentiment in […]
VSU Science Saturday Returns with Tree-Mendous Biology Event
VALDOSTA — VSU invites the community to a free Science Saturday Tree-Mendous Biology event April 18.
House returns as two lawmakers vow to resign amid scandals
Representatives Eric Swalwell, a California Democrat, and Tony Gonzales, a Texas Republican, announced Monday they would resign amid scrutiny over their conduct
Trump touts 'gold standard science.' What does that actually mean?
The Trump administration says it's returning U.S. science to a golden era. Critics say it's tarnished by political agendas.
Yankees news: Aaron Judge calls out the team
Judge renders verdict on offensive woes; Bird demoted; Cole, Rodón, Volpe rehab assignments set; Winquest returned to STL
Here\'s the performance schedule for Marietta\'s Cherry Blossom Benefit Music Festival
Enjoy musical acts under a stretch of 150 cherry trees in full bloom when Marietta’s Cherry Blossom Benefit Music Festival returns Saturday, April 18.
Mendy, the big return, Arbeloa names squad for Munich battle
Real Madrid travel to Munich without players such as Courtois or Rodrygo due to injury, and without Tchouaméni through suspension. The season is on the line for Real Madrid, who head to Munich lookin...
Quenda returns in time to face Arsenal
Sporting winger Geovany Quenda is back and ready to face Premier League opposition again, starting with Arsenal. The 18-year-old missed Sporting's 1-0 first-leg defeat as he completed the final stage of his recovery from a foot injury. Sporting's number seven returned from the bench in Saturday's win over Estrela Amadora and will again be available for Wednesday's tie against Arsenal at the Emirates Stadium.
Assessing Six Flags Entertainment (FUN) Valuation After Its Recent Name Change And Share Price Rebound
Why Six Flags Entertainment Is Back On Investors’ Radar Six Flags Entertainment (FUN) has been reshaped by its July 2024 name change from Cedar Fair, putting fresh attention on a business that runs amusement parks, water parks, and resorts across North America. See our latest analysis for Six Flags Entertainment. Recent trading has been lively, with a 30 day share price return of 22.89% and a 90 day gain of 25.00%. However, the 1 year total shareholder return of 38.98% and 5 year total...
The business of being Rachel Zoe
This week, I checked in on Rachel Zoe’s return to the spotlight and how she's leveraging value of the “Real Housewives” empire.
A Look At Caesars Entertainment (CZR) Valuation After Its Mixed Earnings-Driven Share Price Move
Caesars Entertainment (CZR) is back in focus after its latest earnings report, where revenue topped analyst forecasts while adjusted operating income and EPS came in below expectations, yet the share price moved higher. See our latest analysis for Caesars Entertainment. The latest move higher in Caesars Entertainment's share price comes after its earnings release, with the stock showing a 13.54% year to date share price return while the 5 year total shareholder return is still down 69.86%...
Thunder Over Louisville returns Saturday after 2025 cancellation, bringing crowds and business boost
After being canceled last year because of flooding, Thunder Over Louisville is back this weekend, and organizers expect a major turnout.
House eyes possible expulsion of multiple members as it returns to Washington
Both parties appear to be factoring in the razor-thin majority that Republicans hold in the chamber as they weigh whether to oust members.
Romney returns to Mass. 20 years after 'Romneycare' passage
Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney made a rare public appearance in Boston on Monday to celebrate his signature health care law, which later became a liability during his unsuccessful run for president.
WATCH LIVE: Senate returns from recess to consider judicial nominee after Iran talks come up short
The Future Of Health And Nutrition In America
Lifestyle contributor Kari Hawker Diaz returns with balance of nature to discuss the future of health and nutrition in America, and share simple habits and stra
Why Did ‘Rock the Block’s Chelsea Meissner Leave ’Southern Charm’?
The 'Survivor' and Bravo alum is making her reality TV return on 'Rock the Block.'
Alice Cooper returns to Eastern Iowa
The Godfather of Shock Rock performs April 18 at Alliant Energy PowerHouse in Cedar Rapids.
Health Sciences Weekend Unites Alumni Around Shared Health Science Center Story
For decades, alumni returned to the University of Tennessee Health Sciences through individual college and class reunions, usually over six different weekends throughout the year.
Health Sciences Weekend Unites Alumni Around Shared Health Science Center Story
For decades, alumni returned to the University of Tennessee Health Sciences through individual college and class reunions, usually over six different weekends throughout the year.
Kari Hawker Diaz returns with Balance of Nature to talk America’s health future
Lifestyle contributor Kari Hawker Diaz returns with Balance of Nature to discuss the future of health and nutrition in America. (7NEWS)
Assessing Six Flags Entertainment (FUN) Valuation After Rebrand And Recent Share Price Momentum
Six Flags Entertainment (FUN) has drawn investor attention after its recent rebranding from Cedar Fair, L.P. The newly named operator of amusement and water parks now reflects a unified identity across its North American properties. See our latest analysis for Six Flags Entertainment. The share price has climbed to US$19.94, with a 7 day share price return of 11.52% and a 30 day share price return of 24.70%. However, the 1 year total shareholder return of 38.07% and 5 year total shareholder...
'Metro 2039' confirmed for "Xbox First Look" show: New format will spotlight games throughout the year.
Xbox's showcase production team has been on a big tear this year, and another new format is on the horizon: starting with the return of Metro.
AIFF to offer 40 film programs, four days of entertainment
Ashland-born filmmaker to screen debut feature film ‘A Simple Machine’ Celebrating its 25th anniversary, the Ashland Independent Film Festival is set to return in late April, bringing in acclaimed filmmakers […]
Rockledge to get hospital land back from Orlando Health after demolition
Rockledge City Council will vote on a deal to return the former Rockledge Regional Medical Center site to the city after demolition.
Barstool Sports returns to West Palm Beach for golf tournament
The Barstool Classic golf tournament returns to West Palm Beach's The Park for a two-day qualifying event in April.
Mid-America Science Museum opening interactive dinosaur exhibit April 25
Dinosaurs will return to Mid-America Science Museum starting April 25 with the exhibit "Expedition: Dinosaur."
Mitt Romney returns to Massachusetts to mark the 20th anniversary of landmark health reform law
A lot happens in Boston every day. To help you keep up, WBUR, Boston's NPR News station, pulled these stories together just for you.
JAXA's 22-Year Bet on Frozen Comet Samples: What a Multi-Decade Mission Timeline Means for Planetary Science Funding
In the world of planetary science, a decade-long mission is considered ambitious. JAXA, Japan’s space agency, is now weighing something far more audacious: a sample return mission that wouldn’t deliver its cargo until the late 2040s, more than 22 years from the earliest planning stages. The proposed Next Generation Small-Body Return (NGSR) mission to comet […]
Warhammer Classics brings legendary games back to your PC
Shadow of the Horned Rat, Chaos Gate, Dark Omen, Fire Warrior and more have returned.
Is Caesars Entertainment (CZR) Offering Value After Recent Share Price Swings?
If you are wondering whether Caesars Entertainment at US$26.88 is a bargain or a value trap, the key is understanding what you are really paying for today. The stock is up 1.3% over the last week and 14.1% year to date, but that sits alongside a 4.2% decline over the last month and longer term returns of 6.1% over 1 year, 38.2% over 3 years and 71.3% over 5 years. Those mixed returns sit against a backdrop of ongoing attention on Caesars Entertainment as a major US gaming and hospitality...
Illinois Valley Community College’s SciFest returns April 17 with 100+ hands-on science experiments
Illinois Valley Community College will host its annual SciFest on April 17 at 7 p.m. in the College Gymnasium, featuring more than 100 interactive science demonstrations and experiments.
Steeplegate Mall redevelopment in Concord 'has returned,' city manager says
The redevelopment of the Steeplegate Mall in Concord is still in the works after multiple lawsuits stalled the massive project, according to city officials.
What Flutter Entertainment (FLUT)'s Board Shuffle, Buybacks and Quiet Dart Stake Mean For Shareholders
In recent days, Flutter Entertainment plc reported that long-serving independent director Alfred F. Hurley, Jr. will retire at the 2026 AGM, with Nancy Dubuc set to assume the role of Chair of the Compensation and Human Resources Committee, while the company continues executing a multi-billion-dollar share repurchase program. At the same time, billionaire investor Kenneth Dart has quietly built substantial economic exposure to Flutter through total return swaps, even as analysts question...
Deion Sanders gives encouraging health update at Colorado spring game
Deion Sanders returned to the field for the Buffaloes' spring game after dealing with blood clots, and he provided a positive update on his health.
Report: Hideo Kojima's Physint New Casting Details Unearthed, Teasing a Villain
Production on Kojima's return to action-espionage is gearing up, and we've unearthed brand new exclusive Physint casting details.
'Euphoria' Season 3 returns with new plot and dedications
After four years, 'Euphoria' Season 3 premieres this weekend, dedicated to Angus Cloud and others. What to know.
Jon Jones may ‘feel the fire’ to return after UFC 327 but Dana White definitely does not
Jon Jones continues to flip flop on whether or not he intends to retire from the sport, which doesn’t surprise UFC CEO Dana White one bit. White spent the last couple of years glazing Jon Jones as the GOAT of MMA, but that all ended after “Bones” retired in June 2025, reneging on a reported […]
Jesuit-Rummel winner clinches district title as fast-working pitcher overcomes early struggles
After each pitch, Maes Martin quickly took the return throw from the catcher and stepped back onto the rubber.
‘Euphoria’ has outgrown itself, on screen and off
Everything was different when “Euphoria” premiered in 2019. Now, as the series makes its long-awaited return Sunday, the third and final season of the show is emerging into a drastically different world, both in terms of the story being told on screen and the generation of stars the show helped launch off screen.
'Human minds shouldn't have to go through' this: Artemis II crew recalls unreal moment when Earth disappeared — Space photo of the week
A stunning Earthset image from Artemis II recalls Apollo 8's Earthrise, marking humanity's return to deep space and the start of a new era of exploration.
Tencent Music Entertainment Group (NYSE:TME) Valuation Check As Options Volatility Climbs And Analyst Caution Grows
Recent trading in Tencent Music Entertainment Group (NYSE:TME) options has shown unusually high implied volatility. This points to expectations of sharp share price swings, while analyst sentiment on the stock and sector remains cautious. See our latest analysis for Tencent Music Entertainment Group. The latest share price of $9.36 sits against a 30 day share price return of 34.04% and a year to date share price return of 47.59%, while the 1 year total shareholder return of 21.48% contrasts...
Why reopening the Strait of Hormuz won’t be enough to solve shipping woes and high oil prices
Reopening the Strait of Hormuz is proving to be difficult. But even if the vital waterway fully opens and oil and other necessary cargo sail out, it won’t be enough to return things to normal.
Coffee and granola: How a uniquely Pittsburgh partnership is helping local businesses grow
Derek Davies never intended to return to Pittsburgh. He had one goal by the time he graduated from North Allegheny High School: “Get the hell out...
Sunderland vs Tottenham Hotspur – Match preview and team news
Roberto De Zerbi makes his Premier League return as Tottenham Hotspur visit Sunderland at the Stadium of Light today.The Italian manager replaces Igor Tudor after a dismal run left Spurs one point abo...
Childers never doubted Victory Lane return: 'Not a chance in hell'
Rodney Childers, crew chief for Zilisch and JRM's No. 1 Chevrolet, responds when asked if he ever doubted he'd make it to Victory Lane again.
Photo highlights from the Coachella Music and Arts Festival
INDIO, Calif. (AP) — The Coachella Valley Music and Arts Festival, in its 25th edition, returns to the Empire Polo Club.
Photo highlights from the Coachella Music and Arts Festival
INDIO, Calif. (AP) — The Coachella Valley Music and Arts Festival, in its 25th edition, returns to the Empire Polo Club.
Fury dominates Makhmudov and calls out Joshua next
Tyson Fury marks his return to the heavyweight mix with a composed points win over Arslanbek Makhmudo, before immediately turning ringside to call out Anthony Joshua.
Assessing Flutter Entertainment (NYSE:FLUT) Valuation After A Steep Year To Date Share Price Slide
Flutter Entertainment (NYSE:FLUT) has been drawing attention after a steep share price slide in the past 3 months, with the stock down about 53% year to date at a recent price of US$102.38. See our latest analysis for Flutter Entertainment. The recent 90 day share price return of 52.45% and 1 year total shareholder return of 55.83% both sit sharply in negative territory, suggesting momentum has been fading rather than building despite earlier gains in recent years. If this kind of reset has...
Book crawl brings business to local small businesses
Book lovers rejoice, your demands were heard for the return of a book crawl.
China's K-pop worries: The reasons why a ban on Korean entertainment has lasted a decade
As mega K-pop group BTS returns to the stage after a hiatus of more than three years, one major market is conspicuously missing from its 12-month world tour: China. The omission of one of the group's biggest fan bases comes as no surprise. In fact, just the opposite would have…
Assessing Caesars Entertainment (CZR) Valuation As Investors Revisit The Stock’s Recent Performance
Why Caesars Entertainment (CZR) is on investors’ radar Caesars Entertainment (CZR) has drawn attention after recent share price moves, with a 1 day gain of about 1.7% contrasting with a loss of roughly 7.5% over the past month. See our latest analysis for Caesars Entertainment. That short term 1 day and 7 day share price strength sits against a 30 day share price return of about an 8% decline, a 90 day gain of 9.1% and a 1 year total shareholder return of 6.1%. Longer term total shareholder...
Sun ’n Fun returns, boosting local businesses and adding shuttle service
The vice president of the Aerospace Center for Excellence says the airshow generates more than $60 million for Central Florida.
Entertainment venues keep packing Fresno-area calendar. 10 (more) shows to watch
Among a slew of announcements, Broadway in Fresno put out its next lineup: We’re getting the Neil Diamond musical and a return of “Jersey Boys.”
Entertainment venues keep packing Fresno-area calendar. 10 (more) shows to watch
Among a slew of announcements, Broadway in Fresno put out its next lineup: We’re getting the Neil Diamond musical and a return of “Jersey Boys.”
Local View: Parable of three donors illustrates money in politics
From the column: "If the candidate takes the cash, it will be commingled into one larger snowball of contributions to make larger buys with diminishing marginal returns in voters per dollar."
Maui Health announces CEO transition as Fulton announces departure to be closer to family
Maui Health announced today that chief executive officer Lynn Fulton will step down effective May 3, 2026, to return to central Illinois to be closer to her family. A leadership transition plan will be shared in the coming days.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
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