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FOX Sports Analyst suggests Chiefs draft day trade with Lions
A FOX Sports Analyst suggests a Kansas City Chiefs draft day trade with the Detroit Lions for tight end Sam LaPorta | @EdEastonJr
Police officer injured in Rochester mental health detention
A 24-year-old man will be charged with second degree assault after a police officer was injured trying to detain him on Wednesday evening.
Iran’s Confrontation Strategy through the Dichotomy of Geography and Time
Iran has clearly benefited from developing deterrence strategies, particularly following the 12-day war in June 2025.
Salt Lake County Mayor shares more details on Salt Palace remodel
More details are emerging about the reconstruction plans coming to the Salt Palace Convention Center.
Man injured in shooting behind business on Detroit’s west side
A man was injured in a shooting behind a business on Detroit’s west side.
McMorrow seizes Senate fundraising lead. Rogers holds cash advantage
Democrat Mallory McMorrow raised the most money in the first quarter of the U.S. Senate race, while the GOP's Mike Rogers had the most cash on hand.
STATEMENT FROM LIVE NATION ENTERTAINMENT
/PRNewswire/ -- The jury's verdict is not the last word on this matter. Pending motions will determine whether the liability and damages rulings stand. Live...
Statement From Live Nation Entertainment
The jury’s verdict is not the last word on this matter. Pending motions will determine whether the liability and damages rulings stand. Live Nation will soon renew its motion for judgment as a matter of law, which the Court deferred until after the jury returned its verdict. That motion addresses all…
Streaming service reportedly making pitch to Pacers, several other NBA teams
Report from Sports Business Journal that Disney-owned TV streaming service Fubo to make pitch to Pacers, other NBA teams
Scientists Use AI to Map Ocean Currents in Incredible Detail
Understanding ocean currents is important for work such as weather forecasting, climate research, search-and-rescue operations and oil spill response.
NFIB Releases Report Detailing Benefits of Federal 20% Small Business Tax Deduction Becoming Permanent for Massachusetts
Will the benefits of federal relief overcome the high-tax environment created by state and local government in the Commonwealth?
Microsoft has a new idea on how to deter students from MacBook Neo
The effects of MacBook Neo continue to ripple through the PC industry this week. As spotted by The Verge, Microsoft...
Md. vaccine policy ‘will be led by science’: New law decouples guidance from federal agencies
As of July 1, Maryland will determine which vaccines should be administered, severing its reliance on federal agencies, including the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Things to do this weekend in Metro Detroit
Concerts, theater, art events and more are on deck around Detroit this weekend, April 17-19.
Fraud allegations may spark additional probe
Staff found 15 instances when this occurred but noted that time limits for making a decision made it “impossible to determine the exact number of fraudulent QC’s claimed by Collector 1.”
RFK Jr. promotes peptides. Now the FDA weighs easing limits on the unproven chemicals
A panel of outside advisers will review seven peptides at a meeting in July to determine if the unapproved drugs can be safely produced by pharmacies.
Red Wings at Panthers: Notes, Lines, Goalies, How to Watch
The post Red Wings at Panthers: Notes, Lines, Goalies, How to Watch appeared first on Detroit Hockey Now. The Detroit Red Wings (41-30-10) are on the road today to play the Florida Panthers (39-38-4). The Red Wings have […] The post Red Wings at Panthers: Notes, Lines, Goalies, How to Watch appeared first on Detroit Hockey Now.
NFIB Releases Report Detailing Benefits of 20% Small Business Tax Deduction Becoming Permanent in New York
NY is projected to gain 71,000 new jobs annually over the next 10 years if the deduction remains in place.
ICARUS experiment marks major milestone in first neutrino science results
The milestone by ICARUS paves the way to probe sterile‑neutrino oscillations for the full Short-Baseline Neutrino Program at Fermilab. The first results demonstrate the data’s excellent quality and suitability for physics analyses, as well as the maturity of the software tools for event selection, fitting and detector simulation.
OnePlus Watch 4: New Wear OS smartwatch detailed before global release
A new leak indicates that OnePlus is on the verge of releasing a new high-end smartwatch. Replacing the Watch 3, the OnePlus Watch 4 is expected to arrive running Wear OS with an LTPO AMOLED display.
Cuba: Authorities must now release those detained for political reasons and end repression
Amnesty International warns that recent prisoner releases in Cuba continue to be marked by discretion and a lack of transparency, and demands an end to political repression.
TAX DAY: New Report Detailing Benefits of 20% Small Business Tax Deduction Becoming Permanent in Maryland
Learn more about how the Small Business Deduction benefits Maryland.
NFIB Report Details Benefits of 20% Small Business Tax Deduction Becoming Permanent in California
California Tax Day news release on Small Business Deduction
NFIB Report Details Benefits of 20% Small Business Tax Deduction Becoming Permanent in Washington
Washington Tax Day news release on Small Business Deduction
TAX DAY: Benefits of 20% Small Business Tax Deduction in Iowa
NFIB Releases Report Detailing Benefits of 20% Small Business Tax Deduction Becoming Permanent in Iowa
TAX DAY: Benefits of 20% Small Business Tax Deduction in Illinois
NFIB Releases Report Detailing Benefits of 20% Small Business Tax Deduction Becoming Permanent in Illinois
Public Health Students Present Research at Health Equity Symposium - University of New Haven
University of New Haven MPH candidates showcased community-centered and data-driven research at UConn’s Health Equity Symposium. Their work highlights how lived experiences and social determinants shape health outcomes.
Scientists think alien life might be hiding in patterns
A new study proposes detecting life in space by spotting patterns across many planets instead of focusing on one at a time. If life spreads and changes planetary environments, it could leave behind statistical clues linking planets together. These patterns may reveal life even when traditional biosignatures are unclear or misleading. The method could help scientists prioritize which planets are most likely to host life.
Detroit science teacher named one of Michigan's best
DPSCD Teacher Shirley Brezzell was named the 2026 Elementary School Science Teacher of the year.
Police investigate burglary at south Lincoln adult entertainment store
Officers determined a man wearing a tan jacket carrying a bag broke a glass door and entered the business, according to LPD.
Sony Xperia 1 VIII: Launch details of Sony's new flagship phone surface in the wild
A new leak has now revealed some more information on what to expect from Sony's upcoming flagship smartphone. The Xperia 1 VIII will succeed last year's Xperia VII and could be scheduled to debut on the global market shortly.
Patrick Kane Leaves Door Wide Open For Playing Next Season
A new way to detect life beyond Earth without knowing what life looks like
Researchers from the Earth-Life Science Institute (ELSI) and National Institute for Basic Biology have developed a new method to detect extraterrestrial life without relying on traditional biosignatures. By modelling how life might spread between planets, they demonstrate that life could be detected through statistical patterns across planetary populations rather than on individual planets. This "agnostic biosignature" approach could assist in guiding future searches for life beyond Earth.
How Penn Dining selects campus business partners, determines payment methods
The Daily Pennsylvanian spoke with members of the Penn Dining team to learn how the University selects business partners and decides which payment methods are accepted at different dining locations.
Apple App Store threatened to remove Grok over deepfakes: letter
In a letter to senators sent in January, Apple detailed how it responded to Grok’s ability to generate sexualized deepfakes.
Mayor Jones seeks business input on zoning rules for private detention facilities
SAN ANTONIO - Mayor Gina Ortiz Jones is asking the city’s economic development leaders to weigh in on a proposed zoning ordinance that would regulate where non-
Six-figure offers and hundreds of calls, all-conference guard details portal decision
Hudson Mayes had \
Apple says Jon Prosser has only partially complied with subpoenas in iOS 26 leak case
In a joint status report, attorneys for Apple and Michael Ramacciotti updated the court on the latest developments in the trade secrets lawsuit over the leak of iOS 26 design details.
Woman alleges violent sexual assault by Eric Swalwell: 'He raped me’
A day after Rep. Eric Swallwell said he would resign from Congress, a Beverly Hills woman detailed what she described as a violent sexual encounter with the Democratic lawmaker.
Eastern Market hosts All Things Detroit Day, helping small business owners
Sheds 3 and 5 hosted independent entrepreneurs Sunday, allowing them to showcase their businesses for an event called All Things Detroit Day.
Arteta on team fitness, 'pure fire' and Sporting
Arsenal boss Mikel Arteta has been speaking to the media before Wednesday's Champions League quarter-final second leg against Sporting at Emirates (kick-off 20:00 BST). Arteta was vague on team news, adding that "a few of the boys" will be assessed Wednesday morning to see if they can play. Declan Rice, who did not train on Tuesday, is one of those but Arteta would not give details on the reason he is sidelined.
Iraola to leave Bournemouth
Bournemouth manager Andoni Iraola will leave the club this summer. The Spaniard joined the club in 2023, replacing then head coach Gary O'Neil. Bournemouth had been determined to keep Iraola at the club but were unable to reach an agreement with the 43-year-old.
Alienware’s new gaming monitor offers a 240Hz QD-OLED panel for just $350
OLEDs for everybody.
Detroit Lions Free Agency Injury Analysis: Safety Avonte Maddox
Avonte Maddox injury history breakdown. Can the Lions count on him in 2026?
The Salary Penalty: Why Trump’s Tax Bill Hits a Banker Harder Than a Plumber
These days the biggest factor determining what high earners owe the government is how they make their money.
'New Estêvão'? Palmeiras gem on City Group's radar: details
Young forward Eduardo Conceição, just 16 years old, is drawing attention from the European market.In excellent form for Brazil at the South American Under-17 Championship, where he has already recor...
The biggest takeaways from the new RFK Jr. tell-all, from addiction to affairs
An unauthorized biography on Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is detailing the ups, downs and inner thoughts of the famed family member-turned-health secretary.
Detroit Aims to Become Center of U.S. Drone Manufacturing
The state, known for making cars, is spending millions to entice drone manufacturers that can bring new business to auto suppliers.
In the West, businesses can only watch, not stop drone threats
With few options available, businesses and the wealthy in the West are buying drone detectors, a technology used often in Ukraine, to spot threats.
Diabetes testing included in free Healthy Heart Project by Henry Ford Health
It's just a little finger poke, a drop of blood and just like that, you can learn if you're at risk for type 2 diabetes which can be doing slow, subtle damage in your body for years unnoticed.
Hospitality mogul details challenges of expanding business to NYC
The entrepreneur has built a portfolio of high-energy environments.
How Amazon is expanding its car-sales business
Amazon (AMZN) is expanding its car-sales business to include Jeep, Chevrolet, and other automakers. Yahoo Finance Senior Autos Reporter Pras Subramanian breaks down the details.
iOS 26.5 beta 2 gives Apple Maps a new ads popup
iOS 26.5 beta 2 arrived today, and it lays the groundwork for ads coming to Apple Maps via a new popup. Here are the details.
Week of the Young Child at Science City
Science City Outreach Education Lead Jordan Fox joins Shane and Kerrigan to share all the details on the upcoming Week of the Young Child.
Delta Air Lines rolls out new business class suites in premium push
The updated suites will be introduced on the airlines’ new A350-1000 jets that will enter service in 2027.
Colorado leaders warn of a "deteriorating" business climate
The ad-hoc organization, Ensuring Colorado's Innovation Future, cites Palantir's relocation as a major concern.
VA launches new EHR at four Michigan medical centers
The new federal electronic health records system went live at facilities in Ann Arbor, Battle Creek, Detroit and Saginaw. The Department of Veterans Affairs also says it is staffing up to support implementations of the long-beleaguered Oracle Health EHR.
Essentia Health offering walk-in mammograms in Detroit Lakes
Essentia Health will offer walk-in mammograms from 7:30 a.m. to 6:30 p.m. on Thursday, April 16, at Essentia Health St. Mary’s-Detroit Lakes, located at 1027 Washington Ave.
'We are outraged': Pueblo business issues statement after 2 hurt in shooting
A Pueblo business is sharing details about a shooting that took place Sunday night that reportedly injured two people.
The next MacBook Neo already sounds like a big upgrade for one reason
Last week a new report on the MacBook Neo’s success contained details on Apple’s plan for the next-gen Neo, which could be a big upgrade.
New Rules May Allow Broader Picks for CDC Vaccine Panel
By HealthDay Staff HealthDay ReporterMONDAY, April 13, 2026 (HealthDay News) — The Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) could soon have a new focus after officials changed the rules that determine who can serve on it. The updated rules were approved by Health Secretary Robert F.
College football best- and worst-case scenarios for every team in the top 25 ahead of 2026
Sifting through rosters and schedules to determine the ceiling and floor for 2026 contenders
The Strokes line up band's first area headlining show in 20 years
Tickets for the band's June concert go on sale Friday.
Detroit Lions NFL Draft Injury Report: Louisville WR Chris Bell
Chris Bell NFL Draft medical report. Full injury analysis heading into the 2026 NFL draft. How will it affect Detroit Lions draft strategy?
Imaging science research gives new clarity on what color helps eyes focus best
Research by RIT assistant professor Benjamin Chin published in Science Advances may help determine which wavelengths helps the eye focus best.
Ilitch Sports + Entertainment Hosts Detroit Women in Sports & Entertainment Happy Hour at the Fox Theatre
Community
Gray whales are entering San Francisco Bay and many aren’t surviving
Gray whales are beginning to break their long-established migration patterns, venturing into risky new territory like San Francisco Bay as climate change disrupts their Arctic food supply. But this unexpected detour is proving deadly: nearly one in five whales that enter the Bay don’t survive, with many struck by ships in the crowded, foggy waters.
Ilitch Sports + Entertainment Hosts Detroit Women in Sports & Entertainment Happy Hour at the Fox Theatre
Community
PAHO’s 2025 Country Reports highlight the Region’s progress in health
Washington, D.C., April 10, 2026 (PAHO) — The Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) today presented the 2025 Annual Reports of its country offices, detailing the main results of technical cooperation achieved in collaboration with governments and strategic partners across the Region.Each report highlights concrete results, impacts, and stories from the field stemming from PAHO’s technical cooperation tailored to each country’s context and health priorities.
Ohio health officials warn of sedative detected in illegal drug supply
The drug is called medetomidine, and it's being mixed with opioids, such as fentanyl.
Incarceration as Social Determinant of Health
Incarceration is large-scale social determinant of health with broad and enduring dynamics that harm individuals, families, and communities
Red Wings Recall Brandsegg-Nygard For Season-Ending Road Trip
The post Red Wings Recall Brandsegg-Nygard For Season-Ending Road Trip appeared first on Detroit Hockey Now. In what can only be described as a puzzling decision, now that it’s too late to help, the Detroit Red […] The post Red Wings Recall Brandsegg-Nygard For Season-Ending Road Trip appeared first on Detroit Hockey Now.
8.8-inch OLED, Snapdragon 8 Gen 5: High-end compact tablet gets official launch date
Compact tablet enthusiasts have likely been awaiting more details regarding the Oppo Pad Mini tablet. As revealed by the company, the 8.8-inch OLED tablet powered by the Snapdragon 8 Gen 5 SoC is set to see the light of day later this month.
Report Suggests Potential Detroit Lions Schedule Release Dates
The Detroit Lions 2026 NFL schedule release date is coming in mid-May. Here’s what we know and who the Lions will face.
Astronomers detect mega-laser beam signal from 8 billion light-years away
Science News: One of the most remarkable discoveries made by astronomers in recent years is the identification of an extremely strong \"mega-laser\" signal that has t.
GameThread: Tigers vs. Marlins, 1:40 p.m.
Detroit Tigers (6-9) vs. Miami Marlins (8-7) Time/Place: 1:40 p.m., Comerica ParkOpponent Site: Fish On FirstMedia: Detroit SportsNet, MLB.TV, Tigers Radio NetworkPitching Matchup: LHP Tarik Skubal (1-2, 2.55 ERA) vs. RHP Sandy Alcantara (2-0, 0.74 ERA) Lineups MARLINS TIGERS Austin Slater – RF Kevin McGonigle – SS Agustin Ramirez – C Gleyber Torres – 2B Jakob Marsee – CF Colt Keith […]
All Things Detroit Day draws shoppers, celebrates small businesses at Eastern Market
The Sheds at Eastern Market were buzzing Sunday as shoppers poured in for All Things Detroit Day, an annual celebration of local small businesses featuring more than 100 vendors offering everything from apparel to food.
Report: Hideo Kojima's Physint New Casting Details Unearthed, Teasing a Villain
Production on Kojima's return to action-espionage is gearing up, and we've unearthed brand new exclusive Physint casting details.
The War With Iran Offered a Snapshot of Trump World. It’s Not a Pretty Picture.
In a roundtable discussion, POLITICO reporters detail how the war in Iran pulled back the curtain on the Trump administration.
Pokemon Champions Battle Pass Season M-2 rewards leaked
Pokémon Champions has already leaked details about its Battle Pass Season M-2 rewards. The next season isn’t expected to start for quite a bit. Pokemon Champions just launched this week, and alongside that, Season M-1 started up. It should be running until May 12, so the next one isn’t expected until at least a month from now. That said, if...
Scientists Unveil Microscopy Breakthrough That Reveals “Invisible” Molecular States
Scientists have introduced a microscopy technique that reveals a hidden layer of chemistry involving molecules that normally evade detection.
Best 2-in-1 Laptops (2026): Microsoft, Lenovo, and the iPad
Whether you want a detachable tablet or a laptop screen that spins, these 2-in-1 devices manage to balance being both a tablet and a laptop.
Rapper Offset shot in Florida. The latest on his condition
Rapper Offset was shot outside a Florida casino; two suspects are detained.
Marlins-Tigers finale features Cy Young Award matchup
The Detroit Tigers are hoping the third time's the charm early in the season.
Today’s Papers – Shocking Milan, Juventus celebrate
La Gazzetta dello SportInter in Como for the Scudetto. Pio must do a LautaroNapoli in Parma with the comeback dream. Conte: ‘Let’s put pressure.’Great LadyWins in Bergamo and narrows the Champio...
Americans wait overnight for access to free healthcare as costs soar ‘out of reach’
Some Americans are sleeping in their cars for days to receive free healthcare from Remote Area Medical's volunteer pop-up clinics across the country. CEO Chris Hall shares details.
Pistons, Pacers close regular season in opposite positions
With the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference already locked up, the Detroit Pistons visiting the Indiana Pacers on Sunday in Indianapolis with an opportunity to complete a 60-win regular season for the first time in 20 years.
Detroit Lions 2026 NFL Draft Need Analysis: Quarterback
The Lions seem solid at the QB position for 2026, but could they add a developmental QB?
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
Yankees determined to wake sleepy bats in rematch vs. Rays
Yankees determined to wake sleepy bats in rematch vs. Rays
Tigers' Casey Mize hopes sunny skies signal success vs. Marlins
Casey Mize made his most recent start in brutal weather conditions, and the Detroit Tigers right-hander hopes better weather will lead to better results on Saturday when he pitches the middle game of a three-game home series against the Miami Marlins on Saturday afternoon.
How Kodak is trying to turn around its business after teetering on bankruptcy
Photography company Eastman Kodak has seen its fair share of financial struggles, but CEO Jim Continenza is determined to fuel its success.
Your nose could detect Alzheimer’s years before symptoms begin
Losing your sense of smell might signal Alzheimer’s far earlier than expected. Scientists found that immune cells in the brain actively destroy smell-related nerve fibers after detecting abnormal signals on their surfaces. This damage begins in early stages of the disease, well before cognitive decline. The discovery could help identify at-risk patients sooner and improve treatment timing.
Unusual airborne toxin detected in the U.S. for the first time
Scientists searching for air pollution clues stumbled onto something unexpected: toxic MCCPs drifting through the air for the first time in the Western Hemisphere. The likely source—fertilizer made from sewage sludge—points to a hidden route for contamination.
Detroit Lions set for top 30 visit with Toledo DB
The Detroit Lions will host Toledo defensive back Andre Fuller on a top 30 visit next week.
Council to seek clarity on authority to hold public vote on Rock Creek Entertainment District TIF districts
Norman City Council will consider an agenda item Tuesday that could help determine if the city has authority to hold a public vote on the Rock Creek Entertainment District tax
Tigers back in the win column, blank Marlins in opener
Behind a sterling start from Keider Montero and just enough offense, the Tigers shut out the Marlins, 2-0, at Comerica Park on Friday.
City council to consider determining authority to bring entertainment district TIF to public vote
City council to consider determining authority to bring entertainment district TIF to public vote
Jamie Ding 'Jeopardy!' win streak hits 21; how much has he won?
The Metro Detroit native never trailed during Friday's episode.