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Welcome to Half Moon Grey
At Rivian, our paint palette has always been an extension of the places we explore, from the deep woods of Forest Green to the vibrant sunset warmth of Red Canyon. Half Moon Grey is the newest color in our lineup, carrying a similar depth to El Cap Granite that it replaces, while introducing more warmth and a finer metallic that is a more natural expression of grey. It is subtle in tone and designed to shift with its surroundings. But this is more than just another shade of grey; it’s a masterclass in color science and organic inspiration.
Zuby Ejiofor and Bryce Hopkins Named College Sports Communicators Academic All-Americans - St. John's University Athletics
QUEENS, N.Y.- St. John's men's basketball student-athletes Zuby Ejiofor and Bryce Hopkins have been named to the College Sports Communicators (CSC) All-Ameri...
ECU Athletics Extends Partnership with adidas, Taps BSN SPORTS as Official Distributor - East Carolina University Athletics
GREENVILLE, N.C. – East Carolina Athletics has officially signed a multi-year extension with adidas, ensuring the global sportswear leader remains the offici...
Deputies report gunfire during armed burglary response at business, Orange County Sheriff’s Office says
According to the sheriff’s office, deputies heard shots fired near the rear of the business and a nearby wooded area.
Prides Corner Farms Establishes Scholarships for Plant Science Students
The donation will establish the Prides Corner Farms Graduate Scholarship and the Prides Corner Farms Student Success Fund. The funds will support students p ...
Column: As ‘Soccer Dad’ can tell you, today’s youth sports are no simple fun and games
“Soccer Dad” is an enjoyable, enlightening and charming new book about David Murray’s journey into the youth sports world with his daughter Scout.
Mocs, adidas Renew Partnership Through BSN SPORTS
The Chattanooga Mocs and adidas are extending a successful collaboration with new features that positively impact the athletics programs, University and Chattanooga community.
The Armory brings big-city fun and elevated dining to Maryville
It's a multimillion dollar project that has taken nearly a decade of development. The entertainment venue is also a full-scale restaurant and bar.
The Armory: Restaurant, bar and entertainment venue coming to Maryville
The Armory is a 27,000-square- foot restaurant, bar and entertainment venue coming soon to Maryville
Hegseth right to mock Royal Navy, says ex-army chief as he backs claims over military underfunding
Richard Barrons backs George Robertson and says UK forces ‘too small and undernourished for the world that we now live in’
Carbon removal project supports Maine’s blue economy, broader marine health
MIT researchers introduce a chemical-free approach to balancing ocean acidity that protects marine life and could have huge impact on the global aquaculture market.
Iran: Israel’s Oil Depot Strikes Endanger Environment, Health
Israeli attacks on four oil depots around Tehran on March 7, 2026 may cause long-term health and environmental harm for civilians.
Scientists finally know where the Colorado River’s missing water is going
For years, water managers have been puzzled as the Colorado River kept delivering less water than expected—even when snowpack levels looked promising. New research reveals the missing piece: spring rain, or rather, the lack of it. Warmer, drier springs mean plants are soaking up more snowmelt before it can reach rivers, fueled by sunny skies that boost growth and evaporation. In fact, this shift explains nearly 70% of the shortfall, tying the mystery directly to the long-running Millennium drought.
Retro Rewind re-creates the glorious drudgery of working a '90s video store
What the nostalgic throwback lacks in complexity it makes up for in repetitive charm.
This new Android app could be a lifesaver for sleepy commuters
Sleep&Arrive is a new Android app with Wear OS support that tries to wake you based on your location rather than a fixed alarm time.
Apple Seeds Second iOS 26.5 and iPadOS 26.5 Betas to Developers
Apple today seeded the second betas of upcoming iOS 26.5 and iPadOS 26.5 updates to developers for testing purposes, with the software coming two weeks after Apple released updated first betas. Registered developers can download the betas from the Settings app on the iPhone or iPad by going to the General section and selecting Software Update. iOS 26.5 and iPadOS 26.5 do not include new Siri capabilities, suggesting any Siri updates are being held until iOS 27.
Why Did ‘Rock the Block’s Chelsea Meissner Leave ’Southern Charm’?
The 'Survivor' and Bravo alum is making her reality TV return on 'Rock the Block.'
Event report: Exploring the potential and applications of citizen science in areas affected by armed conflicts
Report: the European Citizen Science Association’s new WG on citizen science in areas affected by armed conflicts' first in-person event.
Delta Rolls Out New Business Class Suites in Premium Push
Delta Air Lines Inc. will introduce an upgraded version of its Delta One business-class suite, continuing the arms race by US carriers to offer plusher and plusher accommodations to win over high-spending passengers.
Former K-State Athletes Barratti, Leeper Named to KSHOF Class of 2026 - Kansas State University Athletics
In an announcement by the State of Kansas Sports Hall of Fame, former K-State standouts Bob Barratti (track and field) and Nathan Leeper (track and field) wi...
Men and women with obesity face very different hidden health risks
New research reveals that obesity affects men and women in surprisingly different ways. Men are more likely to develop harmful abdominal fat and signs of liver stress, while women show higher inflammation and cholesterol levels. These differences could help explain why health risks vary between sexes. Scientists say this could lead to more tailored treatments for obesity.
Venezuela hopes to lure back international miners, but it's a risky business
Venezuela's effort to attract foreign investors to develop its gold, iron and bauxite seams has enthusiastic backing from the Trump administration but faces big challenges, including armed groups with deep interests in the chaotic, largely illegal prospecting industry that has developed over the past 20 years, according to nine miners, residents and community activists who spoke to Reuters.
State Farm sues Amazon after dehumidifier allegedly sparks fire
A federal agency deemed Amazon a "distributor" - now an insurer wants it to pay
Incarceration as Social Determinant of Health
Incarceration is large-scale social determinant of health with broad and enduring dynamics that harm individuals, families, and communities
Sand, science and strategy: Strengthening the shores of Presque Isle
The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Buffalo District, has just released a very interesting video named ‘Sand, science and strategy: Strengthening the Shores of Presque Isle’. This video shows how the Buffalo District – using modern technology and hands-on expertise – fights erosion and protects the coastline of Presque Isle for the future: This content […]
Starmer confirms UK will not support US blockade of strait of Hormuz
PM says opening waterway is ‘vital’ as he rules out any UK involvement in US moves to blockade strait
FDA accepts previously rejected application for new PET imaging agent
The radiopharma firm hopes to soon begin selling Pixclara (Floretyrosine F 18), an investigational product for glioma, a type of brain cancer.
Nukes and Nassau Hall: Inside Princeton’s Science and Global Security Program
Co-directors of Princeton's Science and Global Security Program Zia Mian and Alexander Glaser are working to understand nuclear arms control, nonproliferation, and policies around disarmament alongside a team of researchers and visiting scholars.
Already under financial pressure, Midwest soybean farmers are squeezed further by tariffs, Iran war
Midwest soybean farmers are facing an array of compounding issues | WBEN
Ocean Heat Waves Are 'Supercharging' Hurricane Damage, Scientists Warn
"This is shocking but should also be alarming for people.”
Santee business owner arrested after threatening to shoot deputies
Authorities spotted Robert Sanford, 43, apparently armed with a handgun, entering his business suite on Rockville Street
California Republicans caught between Trump loyalty and winning swing districts
California Republicans embrace Trump at their convention while candidates in competitive races keep him at arm's length to win over voters.
McGeeney feels there's 'much more' in Armagh
Armagh manager Kieran McGeeney feels there is "much more" in his team but "I'm all for playing badly and winning" after their extra-time victory over Tyrone.
Napoli draw at Parma gives Inter chance to put one hand on Serie A title
Napoli's Serie A title defence suffered a blow with Sunday's 1-1 draw at Parma which gave league leaders Inter Milan the chance to move nine points clear.Napoli trail Inter by six points, a gap which could increase following the late match between the Milan giants and Champions League chasers Como.
Snapdragon X2 Elite Offers A Solid Foundation For A Windows On ARM Ecosystem, But OEMs Current Strategy Risk Its Future
Qualcomm has made incredible strides with the Snapdragon X2 Elite, but OEMs using the SoC risk that higher adoption with their current strategies
"Sweet blood doesn't attract mosquitoes: here is what actually attracts them according to science " - Futura-Sciences
At night, you hear the constant buzzing of a mosquito. By morning, there’s a fresh bite right on your cheek. Meanwhile, your partner slept peacefully through the night. During a walk with friends, you’re the one constantly swatting at tiny attacks on your legs, arms, and back. Like tiny vampires...
⚠️ Concern for Mbappé! Not training with the squad after eyebrow stitches
Real Madrid completed training this Sunday with an absence that raised alarm bells, although the club is conveying complete calm. According to several media outlets, Kylian Mbappé did not go out onto...
China's Chery looking to expand car production in Europe, top executives say
Chery is looking to expand car production in Europe through partnerships with other automakers allowing it to use existing factories, top executives at the Chinese carmaker said at an event in Paris.
Ex-Tesla president mimicked Domino's pizza ordering to boost car sales
A former Tesla boss said he and Elon Musk spotted a problem with the carmaker's website. They turned to Domino's for inspiration.
Marlins-Tigers finale features Cy Young Award matchup
The Detroit Tigers are hoping the third time's the charm early in the season.
Today’s Papers – Shocking Milan, Juventus celebrate
La Gazzetta dello SportInter in Como for the Scudetto. Pio must do a LautaroNapoli in Parma with the comeback dream. Conte: ‘Let’s put pressure.’Great LadyWins in Bergamo and narrows the Champio...
Former ‘Citgo 6’ political prisoner sees ‘karma’ in Maduro ouster, but Venezuelan oil won’t rebound until there’s true regime change
Former 'Citgo Six' captive sees democratic elections as the only way to build international business trust in Venezuela again.
April baseball means snowflakes and very brave parents
Attending spring sports games in upstate New York often means cold weather. Here's how to stay warm and entertained.
Mt. Carmel church hosts Minority Health Month men’s breakfast to raise awareness
Men gathered at Mt. Carmel Community Baptist Church on Saturday for the annual Minority Health Month Men’s Breakfast, an event aimed at raising awareness about
Late-Inning Pushes Lift Shenandoah Past Lynchburg in Doubleheader Sweep
The University of Lynchburg softball team dropped both ends of an ODAC doubleheader against Shenandoah on Friday at Moon Field, falling 11-7 in game one and 6-5 in game two.
ON THE JOB: “What is the Best Business Advice You’ve Ever Received?
Interviews by Deborah Jeanne Sergeant Sound advice can contribute to your success. We recently asked area business leaders, what was their best advice they’d ever received. Here’s what they said: “The best advice I ever received was from my then –boss, Gerry Church, Fulton plant manager at Miller Brewing Co. He told me that whenever I wanted to discuss a business problem or issue with him, I should also be prepared to offer possible solutions. It’s the difference between being proactive or reactive. It’s also the difference between being a leader or follower. That has served me well in any business relationship I have had since then.” — Stephen Chirello, Owner, Steve Chirello Advertising, Fulton “Someone will always do it for less; they will also take the most effort to service or satisfy and leave you for the next lower price.” — John M. Henry, Owner, Speedway Press, Mitchell Printing, Phoenix Press, Oswego “I’m going to answer this question by turning it around and giving my own advice that is, ‘Always treat every customer as if they were your only customer!’ We are celebrating our 50th anniversary in business this year. We started our business on March 25, 1976. My advice works.”” — Nick Chervinsky, President, Brewerton Pharmacy, Brewerton “’You need to toot your own horn, my grandfather, Howard D. Dice, told me.” — Beth Ann Dice, Women’s active aging and cancer recovery coach, Mission Movement Wellness Studio & Breast Cancer Recovery Studio, Fulton “In the micro enterprise class, they taught, ‘Get a good lawyer, accountant and bank.’ That was over 30 years ago and I still have those three today. I chose good people I could grow with.” — Tony Pauldine, Owner, Anthony M. Pauldine General Contractors Inc., Oswego “From my grandfather; ‘Listen to everyone! You never know where you will get the solution you need.’” — Kevin Dean, Executive director, Oswego County Opportunities, Fulton “‘Preparation is the mother of success.’ My dad always drilled that into my head growing up, and it has helped me avoid a lot of snags in both my personal and professional life. Thanks, Dad!” — Bekkah Frisch, Owner and president, iHeart Holdings, Inc., Fulton “If you don’t take a risk and try, you will never know.” — Justin Taber, Owner, Torbitt’s Service Center, Oswego “Be ready to take a loss.” — Cody Seymour, Manager, Damiano’s Eatery, Mexico “I’ve received so much good business advice over the years. When people are giving you advice, always be curious rather than judgmental. Follow your gut. Doing the right thing is never the wrong thing.” — Dana Decker, Principal owner/broker, Berkshire Hathaway Home Services, Oswego ’Do it and figure it out later.’ It hasn’t failed me yet. Too many people take time to think about doing this and this and this and then the opportunity is over with. If it’s somewhat reasonable — if it’s not something outrageous — do it and figure it out later.” — Jeremy Allen, Licensed real estate salesperson, Acropolis Realty Group, Syracuse “’Try to meet the needs of the customer. Treat them like you’d like to be treated.’ It’s like the Golden Rule says.” — Douglas Dickson, Physician and associate at CNY Foot Surgery and Podiatry Care, East Syracuse “The best piece of business advice I’ve ever received applies to life in general: always be honest. Never overstate your capabilities and always be willing to ask questions. The more specific you can be in any given topic will always lead to a better outcome.” — Tom Fernandez, President, Woodbine Hospitality, Syracuse “As a business owner, the advice would be ‘Don’t overextend yourself. Especially in agriculture, expect issues to come up.’ If something is going right, it’s not true agriculture. This last season, we scaled very hard to field another crew. We got more drones, crew and generators based on projections. This last season hit the ag community hard with a very wet spring. We did 15,000 to 20,000 acres for fungicide and the same for cover crop seeding in 2024. We scaled to 25,000 to 30,000 for 2025. We ended up doing 2,000 for fungicide and 3,000 for cover crop seeding. That’s why that advice was good.” — Rick Jordan, Operations manager, CNY Drove Services, Clinton “’Keep your head down, mind your own business and do the best for your clients that you can do.’ It has a lot to do with my success in working for Galloway Century 21.” — Ed Fayette, New York state licensed real estate agent, Century 21 Galloway, Oswego “’Expand in all ways, always.’ It just keeps you going and keeps you growing.” — Stephen Baier, Licensed real estate person, The Real Estate Agency & Bouck Commercial, Auburn “The best advice is, ‘Your biggest asset you won’t see on the books because it comes from your employees.’” — David Flickinger, Owner, Edible Arrangements, Syracuse “Don’t take things personally when you’re working with the public.” — Leeann Desimone, Manager, Annie’s Hallmark Shop, Auburn “‘Follow up.’ The customer knows that you care about what you are doing and that their opinion counts. Sometimes they might be on the fence about whether they want to use your company. If they’re asking your opinion on things, they feel you are concerned about what you’re doing. They like to be kept in the loop if they’re spending money with you.” — Dorothy Casper, Saslesperson, SweetWoods Memorials, Phoenix “The best business advice I received is ‘Never be the smartest person in the room. Surround yourself with people who are smarter than you.’ That’s how you learn.” — Debbie Bilello, Owner, Virtual Office Solutions, Central Square “’You need to grow your business but you can’t grow too big too fast.’ That’s what we’ve done at Pinnacle Maintenance. We’ve tried to grow but not too fast. Along those same lines, there’s another good piece of advice, ‘Don’t take on more than you can handle because it only leads to a bad name for your business and a bad experience for your customers.’ It goes along the same lines as growing your business slowly and carefully.” — David Wines, Owner, Pinnacle Maintenance, Central Square “Always be on time and do what you say you are going to do.’ I’ve done very well following that advice. Most of my work is referral and I don’t really do any advertising so I have a pretty good customer base. It’s mostly word-of-mouth from satisfied customers.” — Robert J. Fleming, Owner, Bob Fleming Windows & Doors, Brewerton “’Concentrate on your finances, always pay your taxes, and form a team you can depend on. Try to help the community you’re in as much as you can.’ We do all of these all the time here. We give and give and give to the community and the community gives back to us always.” — Susan Bonnet, Co-owner, Bonnet Sales and Service, Central Square “Keep smiling. It brings a positive attitude to the workplace.” — Karin Lindsley, Vice president, DTS Truck Service, Syracuse “‘Customer service above all.’ Following this advice has served us very well.’ — Guy Fox, Owner, Fox’s Discount Parts, West Monroe “The best thing to do is to make sure you’re taking in more money than you’re spending. I wish I could say I’m a good businessman but I have been in business since 1981. I’m not a bean counter but work well with my hands and its’s served me well all these years and I am still in business.” — Matt McGill, Owner, Matt McGill Collision, Brewerton
Seniors: Dennis Ouellette, 80
Ontario Orchards owner not slowing down as he grows his farm market By Stefan Yablonski The seeds for Dennis Ouellette’s career path were sown when he was 6 years old — and he isn’t slowing down. “Since age 6, I grew up an agriculturalist. That is 72 years. Started out with a 37-acre farm when I bought it from my parents and built it up to almost 300 acres. Brought it back down to around 200 acres now,” he said. The location of his business was just a barn, a horse barn, he said. “In 1967, it officially became Ontario Orchards Farm Market. My wife [June] and I graduated [high school] in 1964 and three years later we became Ontario Orchards. We have been here more than 60 years,” he explained. “It is the same location. We have expanded over the years as the customers mentioned different things; we have expanded to bring in different products. “What keeps me going is I totally enjoy what I am doing. I enjoy the people that I work with. The customers are wonderful. Mostly, more important than anything, is my family — my wife, my daughters, grandchildren, son-in-law — we are still very much a family business I’m not going to retire just yet.” He also enjoys the changing seasons. “Ontario Orchards is a four-season business. There is always something new; more energy, more interest. Not only for the business but for my staff, the people that work here. Things keep changing, changing. We are always looking forward to something new and exciting,” he said. They work with quite a number of local farmers within the area and throughout the state, throughout the country and from around the world.” “We do have things from different countries around the world. But specifically, we are very excited about the local. We have an over 200-acre farm. We sell just about everything we raise on that farm right here at the farm market. For example, we press cider year-round. We make baked goods every day, year-round. We sell our apples 12 months a year.” “Today, there are so many products in Ontario Orchards that we never would have thought of in 1967,” he continued. “I attribute a lot of that to my daughters. I like the young blood and new energy. That is very crucial to a business, it keeps it vibrant.” What’s his favorite part of the job? “I don’t have a favorite part. I enjoy it all. I have a lot of intertest in other things,” he said. “I have staff that knows so much. I can go to the staff and say, ‘I don’t know what this is, you tell me what this is.’ They are so knowledgeable. It is impossible for one person to know everything in this place. In the summer, staff is about 60; in the winter about 20, 25.” He added that he plans on being around for several more years.
Growing List of Dead and Missing NASA Scientists Triggers New Alarm
The list of dead and missing scientists throughout the U.S. was already spurring growing alarm and, in some cases, the attention of law enforcement. Another name has been added to the list by some new...
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
Unusual airborne toxin detected in the U.S. for the first time
Scientists searching for air pollution clues stumbled onto something unexpected: toxic MCCPs drifting through the air for the first time in the Western Hemisphere. The likely source—fertilizer made from sewage sludge—points to a hidden route for contamination.
A longshot, upset bid and a few quick takes
It is hard to keep up these days. The flow of news often seems overwhelming. Let’s focus today on an unusual congressional race before moving on to a few quick, supplementary observations. Since its creation 54 years ago, Congressional District 5 has been represented by a grand total of five people – Bill Armstrong, Ken […]
The Science Behind Spring Cleaning [Opinion]
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Dozens of hidden lakes discovered beneath Arctic glaciers in Canada
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Rural Mental Health Hub Offers Tools, Training, and Support
A new program from Rural Minds gives farmers tools to recognize mental health struggles, start conversations, and offer support.
Animal Science Major Finds Familiar Sense of Community on the Farm
Elizabeth Reed left her hometown seeking a fresh start. Her determination and passion for livestock led her to leadership, and a close-knit community at the University Farm.
Tigers' Parker Meadows lands on 10-day IL with arm fracture, concussion after collision sent OF to hospital
Pontiac Once Ran A Super Bowl Commercial Featuring An Option That Was Cancelled Almost Immediately Because The Suits Freaked Out
Super Bowl commercials have always been a big deal, right from the beginning. You have a massive captive audience, suitable primed on beer and nachos to be as suggestible as possible. That’s why carmakers have always been some of the most eager purchasers of Super Bowl ad time, and why they’ve tended to use it […]
Towanda farm market named national rural small business of the year
The SBA named the family-owned Shores Sisters Farm Market on Golden Mile Road in Towanda as its national rural small business of the year.
What's in Wisconsin's plan for latest round of opioid settlement funds?
The state health department released the plan April 9. State lawmakers have the ultimate say in how opioid settlement funds are spent.
WesternU College of Pharmacy’s Ray Symposium examines keys to regain trust in science
Dr. Aaron E. Carroll, President & CEO of AcademyHealth, presented “Science You Can Trust: Leading with Evidence in a Distrustful Time” at the 20th annual Ray Symposium at WesternU.
DHA offers $300M for health IT deployment support
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Jury starts deliberating states' claim that Live Nation has a monopoly on concerts and ticketing
Jury deliberations have begun in a civil case pitting 34 states against the concert giant Live Nation Entertainment. The states argue that the company and its ticketing arm, Ticketmaster, are...
Heather Lamont Selected For NCAA Career In Sports Forum
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This Women’s Health Company Is Drawing Takeover Interest. The Stock Is Soaring.
Organon stock jumped after a report said Sun Pharmaceutical Industries is nearing an all-cash deal for the women’s health company.
Cozy RPG Deleted From Steam After Seemingly Ripping Off Tetris
The farming sim was removed from Steam last night by the developers, who cited "insufficient verification during the planning stage of a minigame" as the cause
UMD in Third in Latest NSIC All-Sports Standings
The University of Minnesota Duluth athletic department is currently ranked third in the latest Northern Sun Intercollegiate Conference All-Sports Standings after the league calculated the standings again following the winter sports season. Again this year, the NSIC will recognize an overall champion along with a men's and a women's champion.
This Women’s Healthcare Stock Is Up 15% on Reports of a Takeover In the Works
Organon shares surged Friday following reports India’s Sun Pharmaceutical made a bid for the women's healthcare company.
Lacrosse, Flag Football Set to Compete at Women In Sports Day in Baltimore
EMMITSBURG, Md. (April 10, 2026) – Mount St. Mary's host their inaugural Women In Sports Day at the Under Armour Stadium at the House in Baltimore. Women's lacrosse battles Canisius in a crucial Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference (MAAC) game, while flag football resumes play in the Eastern Collegiate Athletic Conference (ECAC) with a contest against Saint Joseph's.
Xbox Is Sending Out Project Helix Gift Packages Signed By New Boss Asha Sharma
No console yet, just a bunch of free merch
Team IMPACT CEO Krissie Kelleher understands the healing power of sports, teamwork and community
Krissie Kelleher used lessons from her lacrosse career to guide her daughter through surgeries and treatment for a spinal cord tumor. Witnessing how sports helped her daughter heal emotionally and physically inspired Kelleher to lead Team IMPACT, a national nonprofit connecting children facing serious illness with NCAA sports teams. Today, the organization partners with more than 400 schools and 1,100 teams to help kids build confidence, find community and experience hope through teamwork.
Augustana Men Lead, Overall Ranked Second in NSIC All-Sports Standings
The NSIC All-Sports Standings have been compiled following the winter season. Again this year, the NSIC will recognize an overall champion along with a men's and a women's champion. Augustana, the seven-time NSIC All-Sports Champion, has 116 points entering the spring. Minnesota State leads the way with 145.50 points. The men lead the way with 63 points, while the women sit sixth with 53.
Starmer says he’s ‘fed up’ with Trump and Putin’s actions pushing up energy bills for Britons
Prime minister explicitly blames US president for British consumers’ higher bills as he concludes tour of Gulf states
Starmer says he is ‘fed up’ with Trump and Putin’s impact on UK energy costs
PM appears to draw comparison between Russian and US leaders and calls for plan to restore shipping through strait of Hormuz
A junior hit 2 home runs and went the distance in the Hahnville-Mount Carmel softball game
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LeBron James dunks right behind KTVU sports reporter Bailey O'Carroll
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Inside Ag: Nampa business bridges the gap between small vanilla farmers and the U.S. market
Chinese business ‘hired lobbying firm with ties to Donald Trump Jnr’
Lobbying firm Checkmate helped China’s Grand Pharmaceutical Group beat a US national security challenge, public filings show.
Open for business: Locals flock to Mount Pleasant Farmers Market
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US conservatives sue to dismantle Native Hawaiian healthcare scholarships
Do No Harm activist group alleges ‘racial discrimination’ in program designed to support under-served communities
Live Nation antitrust trial nears end as lawyer for 34 states labels the concerts giant a monopolist
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Kansas City health leaders announce new integrated theranostics research and treatment center
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Andy’s Produce’s Josh Skikos named to North Bay Business Journal’s Forty Under 40 of 2026
“We prioritize sourcing from regional growers whenever possible and actively support the farming community through partnerships with local producers and organizations like the Sonoma County Farm Bureau.”
Scientists Are Turning Bread into Fuel. It Could Revolutionize Manufacturing.
Bacteria and breadcrumbs could soon replace fossil fuels—and drastically lower harmful emissions.
Israel’s attacks on Lebanon should not be happening, says Keir Starmer
In article for Guardian, PM also calls for Iran conflict to become watershed moment for future UK security
Wellness 360 Pediatrics earns Level 1 Trauma-Informed Care Certification - UT Health San Antonio
UT Health San Antonio's Wellness 360 Pediatrics nursing practice has earned Level 1 Trauma-Informed Care certification from the Ecumenical Center, joining a growing coalition of Bexar County organizations committed to delivering care that heals without causing further harm.
Health Physicists: The Quiet Experts Keeping Radiation Risks in Check
When radioactive materials are involved, whether at a former nuclear weapons site, a decommissioned reactor, or a legacy industrial facility, the goal is simple: protect workers, safeguard communities and reduce potential radiation risks to levels that are demonstrably safe. At the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), health physicists are the professionals responsible for making that happen. Their work is often behind the scenes but always with consequences that matter deeply to the public.
Isabella Lourie Joins Marist’s Sports Medicine Department
Red Foxes' Newest Hire Will Serve as Head Football Athletic Trainer & Work with Water Polo
Exclusive | Justice Department Opens Investigation Into NFL
Government officials have raised questions about whether the league is engaging in anticompetitive tactics that harm consumers.
FDA rejects an industry proposal to deregulate some AI devices
In this edition of Health Tech: FDA rejects a proposal to deregulate certain types of AI devices, pharma invests $50 million in DTx, and more.
A conversation with Sir Michael Marmot
How the realization that health outcomes are directly tied to social status led to a framework to reduce health inequalities.
Unrivaled Sports Partners with Under Armour and DICK'S Sporting Goods to Build the Future of Youth Sports Experiences
/PRNewswire/ -- Unrivaled Sports, the nation's leader in youth sports experiences, today announced landmark partnerships with Under Armour (NYSE: UAA) and...
Lehigh Set to Take on Colgate in Hamilton NY on CBS Sports Network
HAMILTON, N.Y. -The Lehigh Mountain Hawks travel to face the Colgate Raiders on Friday, with the opening faceoff set for 6:30 p.m. The game will be televised...
Navy Sports Information Office Named one of the 11 Best SID Offices in the Country for the Ninth Time and for the Seventh Time in the Last Eight Years
DALLAS (FWAA) – One first-time winner and 10 previous ones comprise the 17th Super 11 Awards, presented annually by the Football Writers Association of America to the best performing College Sports Communicators departments in the NCAA Division I Football Bowl Subdivision. The awards announced today are for the 2025 season.
Pardee Rx Community Pharmacy Opens on Brevard Campus
Pardee Rx Community Pharmacy Opens on Brevard Campus
Amazon Pharmacy to Offer Eli Lilly and Company’s New GLP-1 Pill Foundayo via Same-Day Delivery
Amazon Pharmacy (NASDAQ: AMZN), a full-service digital pharmacy that offers fast medication delivery directly to customers' homes, now offers Eli Lilly and C...
Leaders Across Sports, Business and Higher Education Affirm the Value of Academics in College Football
IRVING, Texas (April 9, 2026) – As the National Football Foundation marks 20 years of the NFF Hampshire Honor Society and a record-setting 2026 class, leaders from the highest levels of sports, business and higher education are praising the organization's role in elevating academic achievement as a core part of the game. Their perspectives reinforce the Foundation's long-standing commitment to ensuring education remains central to the student-athlete experience.