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“God of the Gaps,” and Other Old Friends: Responding to Critics
There are a lot of commenters refuting arguments that Stephen Meyer never made. What he is offering is what philosophers of science call an abductive inference.
Reform and the UAE – a threat to British politics
By Alex Carlen The United Arab Emirates likes to present itself as part of the solution to the climate crisis. The oil-rich Gulf state has committed to Net Zero by 2050, hosted COP 28, and even declared “championing climate action” as one of three strategic objectives for this week’s session of the United Nations General Assembly. But behind the scenes the UAE has quietly built one of its closest political relationships in Europe with the party most hostile to climate action in Britain: Nigel Farage’s Reform UK. There is no evidence that the UAE is funding Reform. But a new FairSquare report, Petro-populism: the UAE–Reform threat, published today, documents a growing political relationship that should concern anyone interested in the integrity of British democracy. Reform’s leaders have embraced the UAE’s political model and promoted positions that align closely with the Emirati government’s priorities, while the UAE has given Farage and his party unusually warm access and public backing. What is emerging is not simply a relationship between British politicians and a wealthy Gulf state, but a channel through which an authoritarian government can cultivate political influence here, and abroad. Democracy for Sale relies on its readers. If you already support us, thanks so much. If you don’t, sign up to support fearless independent investigative journalism. Subscribe Back in January, Nigel Farage appeared at a GB News event in Dubai. On the 50th floor of a tower overlooking the luxury resorts and upscale residences of Palm Jumeirah, the Reform leader declared: “I want Clacton to look like this.” At the event – which Farage never declared on his official register of interests – senior Emirati officials mixed with British expats. Farage was keen to flatter. “We recognise you are our friends”, he said, assuring them that “a Brexit London, a Reform London, will remember you.” Controversy surrounding Reform’s finances and its susceptibility to foreign influence have centred around high-profile donations from billionaire crypto donors, and the jailing of Nathan Gill, Reform’s former leader in Wales, for accepting bribes to give pro-Russia speeches. Far less attention has been paid to Reform’s blossoming new alliance with the UAE, an oil-rich authoritarian state with a track record of ruinous anti-democratic interventions. Farage wasn’t always so fond of the UAE. Back in 2023 he called it an “absolute monarchy with an abysmal human rights record.” Now Reform’s hierarchy calls the UAE home. Deputy leader Richard Tice splits his time between his constituency and Dubai and has called on the UK to learn from the UAE. The party’s treasurer Nick Candy runs a firm which has been in partnership with a UAE-state linked firm since 2024. Nadhim Zahawi sits on the board of an Abu Dhabi think tank alongside an array of the most senior UAE officials and is reportedly close to three brothers of the country’s despotic ruler Mohammed Bin Zayed. Reform’s leading lights have effusively praised the UAE’s governance model, defended it from criticism, and advanced its political agenda in the UK. GB News, whose two major shareholders – the Legatum Foundation and Paul Marshall – have strong links to the UAE, has been more than happy to broadcast UAE propaganda and was forced to pay damages in 2025 after airing a false claim about a UK charity by the UAE “disinfluencer” Amjad Taha. The UAE has responded in kind. When the UAE Minister for Foreign Affairs conducted an official visit to the UK in May, Farage was the only non-government figure granted an audience. UAE state media publicised the meeting, and said that they discussed “the strategic relations between the two countries and ways to enhance them in a manner that serves mutual interests.” For the UAE these ‘mutual interests’ largely concern its paranoia over political Islam, and in this regard the UAE-Reform alliance is part of a broad and troubling pattern. Following a crackdown on dissent at home in the aftermath of the Arab Spring, the UAE has offered material and political support to a range of violent and authoritarian actors willing to oppose the Muslim Brotherhood with no regard for the consequences. Its meddling in Egypt, Tunisia, Yemen, and most notably Sudan, have been devastating. The UAE’s strategy of seeking out partners on the political fringes who it believes will advance its interests is not unique to Britain – it extends beyond the Middle East to Europe and the US. In France, it has offered clandestine support to Marine Le Pen through secret meetings, as well allegedly funding trips to the region after which Le Pen returned with a renewed focus on the UAE’s perceived enemies – Qatar and the Muslim Brotherhood. Left-wing opposition leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon has accused the UAE of smearing him and of “encouraging discrimination, hatred or violence”. In the US, the UAE actively supported the rise of Donald Trump, establishing itself as a key ally during both his first and second terms. Around these relationships sits a wider ecosystem of figures willing to amplify UAE narratives, that even extends to Andrew Tate and Tommy Robinson. Subscribe In Britain, the UAE has used a combination of aggressive diplomacy and illicit, disruptive tactics to achieve its policy goal of eliminating any perceived threat from political Islam. In 2012, for instance, it threatened to block billion-pound arms deals with the UK and stop inward investment if David Cameron did not act against the Muslim Brotherhood and rein in the BBC’s coverage of the group – going so far as to suggest, with no supporting evidence, that the group had infiltrated the BBC. It has financed smear campaigns against a high-profile UK charity and funded a mercenary to secretly surveil, and possibly assassinate, a British national on British soil. In Reform UK, the UAE has finally found an ally willing to not only ban the Muslim Brotherhood, but to publicly vilify the group and repeat the UAE’s claims that dangerous Muslims are a fifth column in British society, a narrative that aligns with the Islamophobia and anti-immigration sentiments that underpin Reform’s populist politics. The Rycroft review into foreign interference concluded that “hostile states and non-state actors have a clear incentive to attempt to undermine UK democracy.” The UAE’s network and alliance with Reform must be understood within that framework. It is a powerful, disruptive and deeply authoritarian actor with the resources and networks to intervene in our politics, and a track-record of doing so in a multitude of other countries. The evidence of the threat the UAE poses is overwhelming. The question is whether parliamentarians are willing to call the UAE out and demand action using the tools that the government has to respond. Placing the UAE on the “Enhanced Tier” of the Foreign Registration scheme alongside Russia and Iran would send a powerful signal to the UAE that its meddling will no longer be tolerated, and would place Farage’s next trips to the UAE under the scrutiny they deserve. Alex Carlen is research and advocacy manager at London based human rights organisation FairSquare and author of its new report Petro-populism: the UAE–Reform threat. Subscribe
Ibragimov flourishing after senior Russia call-up
Young striker Amir Ibragimov is benefitting from his first taste of senior international football last summer, according to Manchester United's Under-21 coach Adam Lawrence. Although he has been left out of the expanded 38-man squad for the forthcoming matches against Iran, Namibia and Nigeria, Ibragimov has caught the eye at youth level for United. Ibragimov had previously been thought of as a number 10, but that was the position JJ Gabriel slotted into at Under-18 level last season.
Mikel Arteta to begin new era at Arsenal as club eye Premier League dominance and Champions League success
Mikel Arteta has agreed a new contract as Arsenal manager following their Premier League title triumph last season; Gunners boss has overseen a remarkable transformation of the club since his arrival in 2019, so can he build on their success?
Barcelona director keeping an eye on experienced defensive options
Barcelona may have enjoyed a spectacular start to the season, winning every match so far and having a solid six point lead over arch-rival Real Madrid. However, there are certain weak points that must...
Iowa football shares optimistic injury updates entering Michigan game
Kirk Ferentz dropped some important updates on a few injured players entering the Michigan game.
Mobile eyes expansion of open-alcohol entertainment districts
Mobile City Council members on Tuesday expressed support for a proposal to expand the downtown entertainment districts, but some voiced concerns over lax enforcement of the rules regarding alcohol outside.
Longtime Davie mayor gets challenge from political newcomer
The incumbent mayor of Davie has held the seat for more than 15 years but her opponent in November’s election is a newcomer who says she has fresh eyes.
Can Illinois’ offense keep up with Ohio State?
The Illini need to stick with what works in order to best the Buckeyes.
Iowa football ascends in latest USA TODAY Sports 1-138 Re-Rank
The Hawkeyes continue to rise in the USA TODAY Sports 1-138 Re-Rank.
Ranked choice voting push reaches Albany, as advocates eye 2027 ballot
Under ranked choice voting, voters rank candidates in order of preference instead of choosing just one.
RB Leipzig Renew Interest In Samir El Mourabet
The German giants are eyeing a January swoop for the €35 million-rated Moroccan starlet, aiming to bolster their midfield with his proven European pedigree and World Cup experience.
Miguel Gutiérrez Wants To Join The World Cup Winners
A sensational debut for Bayer Leverkusen has the Spanish left-back eyeing a senior international call-up, aiming to fill Alejandro Grimaldo’s shoes for both club and country.
Man Utd & Liverpool eye Mitchell
Manchester United and Liverpool are keen on Crystal Palace defender Tyrick Mitchell, Aston Villa loan attacker Alejandro Garnacho is on the radar of La Liga clubs, while Chelsea want Gambian teenager Adama Jeng, plus more.
Game Discussion: Milwaukee Brewers (98-58) @ Philadelphia Phillies (86-70)
Brewers eye four straight wins to close in on 100
Shelton Henderson Envisions 'Farther' Success for UM Men's Basketball
Sophomore centerpiece Shelton Henderson keys a revamped Miami Hurricanes roster, eyeing a deep postseason run.
Disney Promotes Cathleen Taff and Lisa Baldzicki in Consumer Products Shakeup
Disney restructured its Disney Consumer Products team, looping the division into the Disney Entertainment umbrella.
Cheyenne Audubon says proposed business park addition threatens important bird area
CHEYENNE, Wyo. — The Cheyenne City Council's Public Services Committee advanced a handful of ordinances to annex and zone Laramie County land for
Middle-earth: Shadow of War, Shadow of Mordor coming to Nintendo Switch 2
Middle-earth: Shadow of War Definitive Edition and Shadow of Mordor Game of the Year Edition are both coming to Nintendo Switch 2, it’s been revealed. A listing on the Nintendo eShop has them down for September 30, 2026. Middle-earth: Shadow of War Game of the Year Edition features season pass content – specifically the Guardians of the Flaming Eye Warband...
Democrat in Central Dallas County aims to unseat powerful Republican House Member
Allison Mitchell is the Democratic candidate running against the powerful Chairman of the Texas House Ways and Means Committee, Morgan Meyer. Lone Star Politics speaks to her about he uphill battle in the Park Cities and central Dallas. Meyer has not yet responded to a request for an interview.
Saudi Aramco plans reorganisation to create gas division, sources say
Saudi oil giant Aramco plans to reorganise its business to create a new gas division with an eye on possible listings of business units in the future to raise capital, two sources with knowledge of the matter told Reuters.
Turkish military pension fund OYAK eyes foreign partnership on energy as it expands business
Turkish military pension fund OYAK is in talks with a major global energy company over a strategic partnership in fuel distributor Guzel Enerji, with the outcome expected to become clear by early next year.
Eye on Small Business
Andi Schreiber, founder and owner of Eye Candy Boudoir in Scarsdale. Courtesy Alison Sheehy Photography. Once largely associated with bridal
Iowa Football: Five Fast Facts About Michigan
This will be the Hawkeyes' first trip to the Big House since 2019.
Humpback whale mother may have mourned her dead calf for days
Researchers observed a humpback whale mother staying beside her presumed stillborn calf for hours and possibly days off Australia’s Gold Coast. She maintained eye contact and remained close to the calf in behavior resembling caregiving and nurturing. Scientists say the rare observation may provide new insight into grief, maternal attachment, and emotional complexity in humpback whales.
Four clubs eyeing struggling Arsenal star
Viktor Gyokeres moved to Arsenal just over a year ago, but he already finds himself struggling for regular action despite arriving as one of the deadliest strikers in the world.When he competed for Sp...
Which young Buckeye are you buying the most stock in?
Now that we’ve all had a few days to let the collapse in Texas sink in, this week’s fan survey wants to know where your head is following the loss. Click the link and vote.
Newsom eyes 2028 as Democrats weigh their political future
Join The Hill’s Ian Swanson, Amie Parnes and special guest Democratic strategist Garry South, who has advised California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D), for a special “Fight for 2028” centered o…
'Alarming' - does WSL have a homegrown problem?
The London City Lionesses raised eyebrows with no English players in their starting line up against Manchester United, but is there a wider trend?
Star coaches make their bows as Nations League returns
The 2026/27 Nations League kicks off on Thursday but all eyes will be on the touchlines as a starry cast of new coaches, including Zinedine Zidane and Jurgen Klopp, prepare to make their debuts in international football.Other arrivals for this opening round of Nations League matches include Jorge Jesus, who will make his Portugal debut when the competition's reigning champions welcome Wales on Thursday.
Liverpool eye in-demand right-back Read
Liverpool are on the hunt for a new right-back, setting their sights on Dutchman Givairo Read.
The state of pediatric restorative dentistry
Nearly every pediatric clinician surveyed this year expects zirconia crown use to rise, but far fewer are placing them today. A 2026 benchmark report
Political Pulse: Ken Jeakins eyes two open District 35 House seats as Democrat
Air Force veteran Ken Jeakins is running as a Democrat for South Dakota's District 35 House, calling for a culture shift to address veteran and military suicide.
NBC 5/Telemundo 39 station group Texas voter poll
Economy and inflation are top issues according to likely voters surveyed in the NBC 5 Dallas/Telemundo Station Group Texas Voter Poll. NBC 5’s Larry Collins and Phil Prazan tell us the details.
New international standard creates unified health data across Europe
Every breath we take contains tiny particles that are invisible to the naked eye and can harm our health. Air pollution alone contributes to heart disease, stroke, lung cancer, and other chronic illnesses.
Scientists Release Details About Moon's New Massive Crater
It's easy to think of the Moon as the static constant companion in the night sky. Its face hasn’t visibly changed in millennia, and always faces us with the same side. But looks can be deceiving, as our closest companion is constantly bombarded by asteroids and comets that make small craters across the lunar landscape. While they might not be large enough for us to see with our naked eye, professional Moon watchers can pick up on them. And a recent paper published in Science Advances, describes the largest ever found in modern times.
Sacramento artists to install empty film set, urging attorney general to protect entertainment jobs
Sacramento Poet Laureate Andru Defeye and local artist group Sol Collective will unveil a public art installation in Capitol Park to represent the decrease in California’s entertainment jobs later today.
Business Monday: Once a popular food truck, Bite the Eye now serves up ahi in converted shipping containers
The one-of-a-kind restaurant for Puna residents and visitors has become a local gathering spot known for its creative island-inspired menu, relaxed vibe and live local entertainment booked every weekend.
Governor Meyer Announces New Actions To Cut Red Tape and Support Small Businesses
Governor Matt Meyer announced recent progress in remove regulatory barriers, and promoting equitable access for small businesses.
Exclusive: Inside Brad Bird’s 30-Year Quest to Hard-boil the Future in Ray Gunn
The ‘Iron Giant’ filmmaker is shooting for another sci-fi favorite with his private-eye tale starring Sam Rockwell, Scarlett Johansson, and Tom Waits.
Whether you like it or not, celebrities have an impact on politics
The global groundswell of support for Macklemore’s pro-Palestinian advocacy serves to remind us that maybe celebrity activism really is that deep after all, writes Cheek’s Varsha Yajman. Subscribe In the last week, publications, podcasts, and influencers that have either rarely or never spoken about Israel’s genocide in Palestine have flooded my social feed. And it was all because singer Ed Sheeran and his team dropped Macklemore as his opener for saying “Free Palestine” on stage. Millions raised, millions speaking up in support of Palestine - all of this confirming my view that, whether I like it or not, celebrities do have an impact on political outcomes. And this is interesting when much of the time celebrity activism can induce an eye roll - I love to see Charli XCX pointing out a Palestinian flag in the crowd, but it’s hardly the bold symbol of allyship that some fans would make it out to be. But there’s a line between healthy scepticism and outright dismissal - and I’d argue that the latter lets the rich and powerful off far too easily. For instance, actress Jennifer Lawrence, once outspoken about her political views, last year told The Times she no longer believes celebrities have a role to play: “Celebrities do not make a difference whatsoever on who people vote for. So then what am I doing? I’m just sharing my opinion on something that’s going to add fuel to a fire that’s ripping the country apart.” While it’s a narrative she might find comfort in, it simply is not true. Grassroots movements often garner worldwide attention when celebrities and other high-profile spokespeople bring a mainstream platform to their causes. And this frustrates me. We have had three years of a live-streamed genocide. Macklemore himself has been calling for a Free Palestine long before he booked the Sheeran concert. Yet it’s the high-profile fallout of the last week that finally seems to have made saying “Free Palestine” socially acceptable in the mainstream. It feels like the collective mood has shifted, where calling out censorship is now the obvious response - not just the business of ‘radical’ activists. To recap, Sheeran’s decision followed an ultimatum from billionaire Robert Kraft, owner of Gillette Stadium, one of the venues Sheeran was scheduled to perform at: either drop Macklemore as your opener after only two of the eight scheduled shows, or you do not play at any stadiums. Sheeran’s disappointing decision to stand on the side of billionaire-led censorship has ultimately seen a surge in support for Free Palestine. It began when all his openers and his backing band pulled out of Sheeran’s tour, in solidarity with Macklemore and with the Palestinian cause. It was met with an uproar of support from those who had never or barely touched politics before: influencers lip-syncing to Macklemore’s music, singers like Jack Antonoff singing “Free Palestine,” and publications and podcasts standing with Macklemore. And finally, we saw material support: Macklemore donated $1 million in profits from his two nights opening for Sheeran’s tour to several Palestinian aid groups and called for Sheeran and Kraft to match it, which they have since promised to do. We’ve also seen children’s entertainer Ms Rachel follow suit with a $1 million donation to Palestinian aid, and publication PopBase has donated $10,000. Anera, a humanitarian aid group working in Palestine, Lebanon, and Jordan, said donations since Macklemore’s announcement were more than triple this month’s daily average. The group’s Instagram page has also gained 8,000 followers. Macklemore far from the first celebrity to speak and participate in politics in the Western World. In 1924, singer Al Jolson supported Republican candidate Warren G. Harding for president, and decades later, celebrities such as Harry Belafonte, Lena Horne, and Aretha Franklin voiced their public support for the Civil Rights movement. More recently, in the lead-up to the 2024 US election, ‘The Daily Show with Trevor Noah partnered with the organisation Power the Polls to recruit poll workers to address shortages- a problem disproportionately affecting voters of colour. The campaign saw 170,000 new sign-ups - 35,000 of which came directly through the TV show’s link - resulting in the recruitment of 713,000 total poll workers that year, an almost three-fold increase on the organisation’s goal. Alongside recruiting workers, celebrities in the US (where voting in elections is not compulsory) have made a huge difference by calling for people to register to vote. Taylor Swift’s endorsement of Kamala Harris in 2024 saw over 400,000 visitors on the voter registration site within 24 hours of her Instagram post. In 2023, Swift had urged her fans to register, resulting in 35,000 new voter registrations. Similarly, Ariana Grande promoted voter registration in 2019 by setting up booths at concerts on the American leg of her tour, resulting in over 33,000 voters registering. And the same thing is happening closer to home. This year, musician Jack River successfully called for government action to ensure creatives in Australia do not have their work scraped by generative AI companies. Celebrity as the mediator between the punter and the politician Celebrity activism isn’t just a feel-good news story - research tells us it actually makes a difference. By directing attention to issues affecting the average person, like voting inaccessibility or a lack of action on a genocide, researchers Alfred Archer and Amanda Cawston state that “celebrities can play a useful bridging role between political elites and the people they represent”. Alternatively, in a world where talking about politics is “not cool,” or where people lack exposure or knowledge to engage with politics, celebrities can act as an educational resource or an entry point into the political world - when they speak up about an issue, their audience gets exposed to it. Olivia Rodrigo’s Daisy Chain Fields festival is a perfect example. Rodrigo partnered with twelve organisations focused on women’s issues, such as reproductive rights. These organisations had stalls at the festival for people to meet them and were also featured heavily on social media, giving their issues global attention and raising $20 million for the organisations. We have also seen celebrities at award shows such as the Emmys wearing F*CK ICE pins, referring to the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement’s treatment and detainment of people - generally people of colour. When celebrities speak up about political issues in public forums, they put the issue at the forefront of mainstream media, rally their supporters, and make it clear that, however much they disagree, the government cannot simply ignore it. Our over-reliance on celebrities versus our politicians As much as I love seeing my favourite celebrity use their platform for a good cause, there is an important question to ask: not whether celebrity activism is good or bad, but whether we should have to rely on celebrities. And the answer would, in an ideal world, be no. In an ideal world, or merely a just world, action on Palestine would’ve happened decades ago, climate change would be taken seriously, and most importantly, people would understand their democratic rights. However, that is not our reality. Only around 28 per cent of Australian Year 10 students reach proficiency in civics and citizenship. In the US, almost two-thirds of people under 30 say high school civics education didn’t prepare them to understand voting deadlines, how to research candidates, or how to vote by mail. When civics education is weak, our trust in these institutions and our understanding of change-making processes also decline. This is where celebrity steps in and becomes our main source of reliance. As Mary R. Connelly notes in _The Tartan, “_Celebrities will always be involved in campaigns in one form or another, but their presence is not what causes people to vote blindly. The lack of political engagement and literacy is what allows celebrities to wield their influence on the political sphere so impactfully.” About the author Varsha Yajman is the Digital Content Producer at Cheek Media. She is a youth advocate and lawyer with a background in climate litigation and is passionate about looking at the intersection between race, climate justice, and mental health. Thanks for reading Cheek Media Co. ! This post is public so feel free to share it. Share
Inter Miami held again despite another Lionel Messi goal
Lionel Messi's 20th league goal of the season was not enough to claim all three points for Inter Miami as they were held 2-2 at home to San Diego FC. Anders Dreyer grabbed a point for the visitors with his second of the match eight minutes from time.
Messi, Miami frustrated in 2-2 draw with San Diego
Lionel Messi and Inter Miami's hopes of overtaking Nashville at the top of Major League Soccer's Eastern Conference suffered a blow on Sunday after the champions were held to a 2-2 draw by San Diego in Florida.Tverskov once again found Dreyer with a pinpoint pass over the top and the Dane finished coolly to make it 2-2.
Aaron Rodgers Makes Eye-Opening Admission After Patriots’ Defensive Clinic
Aaron Rodgers offered a blunt assessment after New England’s defense dismantled the Steelers at Gillette Stadium.
Spurs eye £125m move for Gibbs-White
Spurs could move for Morgan Gibbs‑White, JJ Gabriel's next step remains unresolved and Antonio Conte may be lining up his next move.
Analysis: Hosts winless but showing signs of growth
Following three consecutive losses to start the season, Fulham might not have been thrilled to see a trip to Anfield and the visit of Manchester United as their next fixtures. As at Liverpool last weekend, there was some eye-catching football on show from Fulham, playing out from the back and going smoothly from one end to the other in a flash. The exciting Josh King, still just 19, will rightly be praised for his showing but perhaps the key for the west Londoners will be the vastly underrated Alex Iwobi.
Why politicians should pay more attention to the polls (reprise)
Welcome to the 231st edition of The Week in Polls (TWIP), a polling newsletter that always welcomes new readers. So please don’t keep TWIP a secret; share it with your friends and colleagues: Share The Week in Polls With all the stories swirling around Reform, JL Partners and political polling, I am finally tearing myself away from talking about the regulation of polling this week - and instead re-running a previous piece reminding us why the solution to problems with polls isn’t simply to ban or ignore them. Rather, we need them to play a vital role in making our politics - and politicians - better. This is followed by summaries of the latest national voting intention polls, seat projections from MRPs and the most recent party leader ratings. Subscribers who pay for the full edition can also read ten insights from the latest polls and analyses, including: A trio of organisations and a pair of professors have been casting their eyes over the Liberal Democrats ahead of the party’s autumn conference; What impact did the summer heatwave have on views on climate change? and Which wins out between chocolate and cheese? If you are not yet a paid subscriber, you can read all ten by starting a free trial now: Get FREE 7-day trial For more polling news as it comes in ahead of next week’s edition, you can also follow The Week in Polls on Bluesky. Picking up on my doubt last week about whether or not 35% of British train travellers have tried to order a takeaway for delivery to a railway station or carriage, thank you to reader Iain, who has been in touch to say he has done just that… in India. Another quick pair of updates, this time on the controversies around Reform and polling. Politico has a further scoop - “Farage aide caught in donor sting attended Egypt retreat with JL Partners” - and Ian Dunt has written about the problems with polling too: “Seeing the response of many polling experts in the last few weeks suggests that they are nervous about what is happening and keen to mitigate against it. Seeing the response of journalists, which has been basically non-existent, suggests the precise opposite.” My usual reminder as well: please do hit reply if you’ve spotted a poll, focus group or new piece of poll-based research that you think should be in contention for coverage in a future edition. Thank you! And with that, on with the show. How politicians get public opinion wrong I have written before about the benefits that come from widespread availability of high-quality political polling. We need more polls and more good coverage of polls. However, what I’ve not dug into before is the research into how accurately politicians estimate public opinion on issues. Thankfully we have academic research to tell us. First, the bad news: We present results from a study of 866 politicians in four countries.1 Politicians were asked to estimate the percentage of public support for various policy proposals. Comparing more than 10,000 estimations with actual levels of public support, we conclude that politicians are quite inaccurate estimators of people’s preferences. They make large errors and even regularly misperceive what a majority of the voters wants. Politicians are hardly better at estimating public preferences than ordinary citizens. Walgrave, S., Jansen, A., Sevenans, J., Soontjens, K., Pilet, J.B., Brack, N., Varone, F., Helfer, L., Vliegenthart, R., van der Meer, T., Breunig, C., Bailer, S., Sheffer, L. & Loewen, P.J. (2023a), “Inaccurate Politicians: Elected Representatives’ Estimations of Public Opinion in Four Countries”, The Journal of Politics, 85(1): 209-222. The bad news is not quite as bad as that makes it sound because, when asked whether the majority of public opinion was for or against various policies, politicians picked the wrong option ‘only’ 29% of the time. However, this included getting it wrong even when public opinion is far from evenly split on an issue: They do not only get it wrong when the public is divided and hard to read (e.g., when there is a 51%:49% distribution). Seventy percent of the misplacements occur for policies with a relatively clear distribution of at least 60% (dis)agreeing citizens. Moreover, the public scored only slightly worse than politicians, picking the wrong option 2.7 out of 8 times on average, compared with 2.3 times for politicians. Turning to the other measure of accuracy (not which side is in the lead but what the percentage support is for each side), politicians on average were 18 percentage points out in their guesses. Again, this was only slightly better than the public, whose error came in at 21 percentage points.2 Further research, using the same mix of countries, gives a little more comfort about how (in)accurate perceptions are: We show that politicians have a better understanding of public opinion when they think the issue matters to voters. Further, when an issue is personally important to politicians they more accurately estimate their party supporters’ opinions. The results confirm that politicians hold more accurate perceptions of voters’ preferences when they think it is important to do so but not necessarily when the issues actually are important to voters. Butler, C., Walgrave, S., Soontjens, K. & Loewen, P.J. (2024), “Politicians are better at estimating public opinion when they think it is more salient”, Party Politics: 1–13. Even so, it’s not a good picture. The remedy for this? Politicians should spend more time reading the polls. So forward this newsletter to someone you know… Share For a more general argument against banning polls, see my 2024 piece. Is “Let Bartlet Be Bartlet” good advice or not? The latest episode of my Political Fictions podcast heads across the Atlantic for a dip into one of the political TV classics: Mark and Cory talk about a giant of American political drama for the first time this week, as they tackle The West Wing. They talk about Let Bartlet Be Bartlet, the nineteenth episode of series one. In it, Mark wonders if The West Wing is actually the epitome of the “Boris Johnson school of politics”, Cory outmanoeuvres Mark into confirming we will record a Christmas Special about Love, Actually and they debate whether the central message of this episode has been misunderstood. Cory’s email newsletter is Paperback Rioter and Mark has a family of email newsletters. Subscribe to our newsletter for some additional bonus content and to get alerted whenever a new episode comes out. Our theme tune is “Monkeys Spinning Monkeys” by Kevin MacLeod/incompetech.com and licensed under the Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 License. You can also listen to our episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, the web or YouTube. Elsewhere from me… [ A Lord's Eye View How to fix the problem of money in our politics Welcome to my latest update on work in the House of Lords. This time I am taking a look at how our political system is regulated, and the protections we need to keep democracy safe from becoming simply a contest to see who has the biggest bank account… Read more 5 days ago · 3 likes · 2 comments · Mark Pack ](https://lordseyeview.substack.com/p/how-to-fix-the-problem-of-money-in?utm_source=substack&utm_campaign=post_embed&utm_medium=web&embedding_publication_id=1269283) If you spot a factual error… Borrowing an idea from Stuart Ritchie and others, if you spot a factual error in an edition of this newsletter, I will give you a free 12-month subscription to the paid-for version (or an extra 12 months on your existing one). Factual errors qualify, but grammatical errors or disagreements over interpretation do not, and my decision is final. Messages about both of those are always welcome, though. Voting intention and leadership ratings Here are the latest voting intention polls from different pollsters. It is all pretty static at the moment, with a small and consistent Labour lead in nearly all the polls. The table is also online here, along with explanations about what is included. It is updated regularly throughout the week as new polls are released. Next are the seat projections from MRPs, also sorted by fieldwork dates, listing those which are based on dedicated fieldwork (rather than models based on averages of other polls). Because such MRPs are published infrequently, some of the entries below are quite old. Finally, here is a summary of leadership ratings, with a graph from PollCheck: Detailed numbers from the latest polls are online here, and both that and the graph are updated regularly throughout the week as new data comes out. For historical figures on both voting intention and leader approval stretching back to the 1930s, including Parliamentary by-election polls, see PollBase. Catch up on the previous two editions [ ](https://theweekinpolls.substack.com/p/a-crisis-point-for-political-polling) [ A crisis point for political polling Sep 13 ](https://theweekinpolls.substack.com/p/a-crisis-point-for-political-polling) [ Read full story ](https://theweekinpolls.substack.com/p/a-crisis-point-for-political-polling) [ ](https://theweekinpolls.substack.com/p/extra-questions-about-the-polls-in) [ Extra questions about the polls in Reform’s funding scandal Sep 6 ](https://theweekinpolls.substack.com/p/extra-questions-about-the-polls-in) [ Read full story ](https://theweekinpolls.substack.com/p/extra-questions-about-the-polls-in) My privacy policy and other legal information are available here. Links to purchase books or other items are usually affiliate links which pay a commission for each sale. Quotes from social media messages are occasionally lightly edited for punctuation and clarity. If you are subscribed to other email lists of mine, please note that unsubscribing from this one will not automatically remove you from the others. If you wish to be removed from all my lists, simply reply to this email to let me know. A quintet of Lib Dem polling analyses, and 9 other polling insights you shouldn’t miss The following ten findings from the most recent polls and analyses are only for subscribers who pay for the full edition, but you can sign up for a free trial to read them straight away. Ahead of the start of Liberal Democrat conference, we have a trio of organisations and a pair of professors with pieces out about Ed Davey’s party:
Grading Iowa Football's Win Over Northern Iowa
The Hawkeyes were dominant in every phase of the game, but how does that translate to a letter grade? We've got the answer here.
Joey Porter Jr. has chance to return in Week 3
Steelers eyeing return to field versus Cincinnati for veteran cornerback
44 days till Iowa Hoops: Joey Matteoni
Joey Matteoni returns as a deep bench piece for the Hawkeyes
Laramie County health and food inspections (9/11/26–9/17/26)
CHEYENNE, Wyo. — The Cheyenne-Laramie County Health Department inspects restaurants, bars, convenience stores, delis, grocery stores, bed and breakfasts
Nashville SC eye bigger dreams after clinching playoff spot
By Ben WrightNASHVILLE, Tenn. – On Saturday night, Nashville SC officially became the first team to clinch an Audi 2026 MLS Cup Playoffs spot.The Boys in Gold cruised to a 3-0 win over Chicago Fire ...
Eichenbaum Acorns: A passion for retina science with Andrea Gibson, PhD, and Erin C. Henry, PhD | Eye Care Network
Andrea Gibson, PhD, and Erin C. Henry, PhD, trace 20 years in retina drug development—and the pathway gap still facing young scientists.
Fiorentina vs Napoli
All eyes are on the Artemio Franchi in Sunday’s early Serie A kick-off, as Fiorentina vs Napoli contest what promises to be an important game for both teams.Neither have started the season in partic...
It'll be controversial! Liverpool's eye bizarre new transfer
Liverpool have a new transfer plan in mind and it'll prove controversial. The Reds need to have a big think on this one.Liverpool are weighing up their transfer plans for the January transfer window a...
Liverpool eyeing fourth £100 million signing for January
One of the key weaknesses in the squad that Liverpool failed to address in the summer is the right-wing position. With Mohamed Salah no longer at Anfield and Federico Chiesa out injured, the Reds are ...
Recap: Sporting KC falls 4-3 to Philadelphia Union
Sporting Kansas City (5-17-3, 18 pts.) fell to a 4-3 defeat against the Philadelphia Union (10-10-6, 36 pts.) at Sporting Park on Saturday night. Andre Luiz scored twice in the first half to go along with Wyatt Meyer’s first goal for the club before red-hot Philadelphia responded with four second-half
3 Takeaways From Iowa’s 55-0 Dismantling Of Northern Iowa
It was all Hawkeyes as they finished a sweep of in-state rivals There was no doubt that Saturday belonged to […]
Kyle Whittingham Makes Eye-Opening Tommy Carr Statement
Kyle Whittingham praised Michigan freshman QB Tommy Carr’s preparation and potential after his impressive debut against UTEP.
Buckeyes Roll Over Kent State while Jeremiah Smith Makes History
Ohio State rolls over the Kent State Golden Flashes while Jeremiah Smith makes history.
How screen time and eyelid health affect dry eye risk
Ashraf Ahmad, MD, explains what's driving rising dry eye rates and why eyelid evaluation is often overlooked.
📋 Mirassol and Botafogo named at the Maião, eyeing safety!
There is only one focus for Mirassol vs. Botafogo this Saturday (19): moving away from the relegation zone.The ball gets rolling at 5 p.m. (Brasília time) for the Matchday 28 clash in the Brasileirã...
Indiana Fever schedule: When does Caitlin Clark play again?
With just three games remaining in their 2026 regular-season slate, when do Caitlin Clark and the Indiana Fever play next?
Insomniac Says Marvel's Wolverine Uses No Generative AI After Fans Spot Strange Signs in-Game
Insomniac Games has stepped in to confirm Marvel's Wolverine contains no generative AI after a few bizarre in-game signs raised eyebrows on social media.
Enjoy Mud Hens Opening Day, Walleye game, and Hensville entertainment all in one
The Official Site of Minor League Baseball web site includes features, news, rosters, statistics, schedules, teams, live game radio broadcasts, and video clips.
Enjoy Mud Hens Opening Day, Walleye game, and Hensville entertainment all in one
Some days bring Toledo together. This one brings the entire city downtown. On Friday, March 26, 2027, we're launching the first-ever Fins and Feathers Festival. It all starts with Mud Hens Opening Day, continues with live music and entertainment throughout Hensville, and concludes with a Toledo Walleye game that night.
Duke Photo Day Stuns, & Scheyer Speaks About His Future
Duke will probably be very good, but the Blue Devils will absolutely be huge
Explained: Keely Hodgkinson's speed suit, and the science she disagreed with
Keely Hodgkinson disagreed with the science in one "non-negotiable" aspect of her eye-catching Nike speed suit.
Explained: Keely Hodgkinson's speed suit, and the science she disagreed with
Keely Hodgkinson disagreed with the science in one "non-negotiable" aspect of her eye-catching Nike speed suit.
Explained: Keely Hodgkinson's speed suit, and the science she disagreed with
Keely Hodgkinson disagreed with the science in one "non-negotiable" aspect of her eye-catching Nike speed suit.
Covington Business Council creates new award to honor late community advocate Katie Meyer
The Covington Business Council has announced the creation of a new award named in honor of a community icon, the late Katie Meyer. The Katie Meyer Spirit of Covington Award will be presented every…
Second-Year Raptors Forward Poised For Breakout Season
Collin Murray-Boyles is a Raptor worth keeping an eye on this upcoming season.
Tulare County keeps close eye on fiscal health - The Sun-Gazette Newspaper
Tulare County maintains conservative $2.26 billion budget while bracing for upcoming state, federal funding pressures
Heavy caffeine users and deeper sleep; wonders of microscopic life; preparing for life after an Alzheimer’s diagnosis; plus other stories with Vanderbilt Health sources
Beth Malow, MD, Professor of Neurology and Pediatrics in the Vanderbilt Sleep Division, was quoted in Women’s Health about a surprising study from the Journal of Psychopharmacology indicating that heavy caffeine users get deeper non-rapid-eye-movement sleep, even while sleeping less time. The New York Times quoted Dylan Burnette, PhD, Associate Professor of Cell and Developmental Biology, in a story (with videos) about the wonders of the microscopic life all around us. William Schaffner, MD, Professor of Preventive Medicine, was quoted by several news outlets about public health issues, including: Prevention (rabies vaccinations); Healthline (update on the Cyclospora outbreak); Prevention again (hundreds now sickened in measles outbreak); and AARP (“How do we know vaccines are safe?” video interview and transcript). Science posted a story about a new NIH research center on vaccine harms. The piece quotes Kathryn Edwards, MD, Professor of Pediatrics, Emerita. Lealani Mae Acosta, MD, MPH, Associate Professor of Neurology, was quoted in an Everyday Health story about how a person, after a diagnosis of Alzheimer’s disease, can enrich their life and prepare for the future. Amalia Peterson, MD, Assistant Professor of Neurology, was quoted by Everyday Health in a piece about common medications linked to lower dementia risk.
Iowa Football: Betting Prediction For Northern Iowa Game
HawkeyeRoundtable Publisher Brad Schultz shares his betting prediction for Iowa's non-conference finale, including spread, total and more.
UCF Basketball Hosting 4-Star F K’Nard Callendar
Johnny Dawkins targets a versatile Overtime Elite standout to anchor the Knights' future, eyeing the high-scoring hybrid forward as a potential cornerstone for the 2027 recruiting class.
Indianapolis still being eyed for MLS team, but with new stadium location
City officials met with MLS executives last week in New York City, during which Indianapolis Mayor Joe Hogsett pitched an undisclosed site near Lucas Oil Stadium for a soccer-specific venue.
🌀 Y! Sports Biz: In the eye of the Hurricane
Nike is taking its talents back to Miami.
Eye of the Tiger: Pivotal position matchups vs. Ole Miss
Which specific matchups could be key on Saturday night?
Paramount reportedly eyeing Nashville for possible move
Paramount is reportedly taking a closer look at Nashville as the entertainment giant considers moving at least some of its operations out of Los Angeles.
Rumour Mongering: Liverpool Eye Brentford’s Dykes for Sporting Director Role
Liverpool are yet to appoint a new sporting director following the departure of Richard Hughes.
The ‘East of Eden’ team knows there’s a lot of eyes on their adaptation (exclusive)
‘East of Eden’ stars Christopher Abbott and Mike Faist, and writer Zoe Kazan, preview the Netflix limited series, which is a new adaptation of John Steinbeck’s classic novel — and one Kazan has been preparing her whole life for.
Could Canada join the EU?
Mark Carney eyes up ‘associate membership’ status as Brussels seeks closer alignment on trade and security
Iowa Hawkeyes Football: Northern Iowa Panthers Game Preview
The 2-0 Iowa Hawkeyes take on interstate rival, the Northern Iowa Panthers
Time to build the United States of Europe, says French presidential hopeful
Attal criticised Ursula von der Leyen’s EU of moving too slowly and failing to deliver
Jakobi Meyers listed as limited Thursday
Jaguars WR Jakobi Meyers remained limited at practice because of thumb issue
Score Prediction: Michigan Needs To Dominate Against UTEP
Michigan is sitting at 2-0 after two very different weeks of football. It would go a long way for U-M's confidence and in the eyes of the media and fans if the Wolverines dominate UTEP this weekend.
Henrico Business Watch: Business license filings Sept. 10-16, 2026
Henrico County reported the following business-license filings with start dates during the week. The filings are listed alphabetically by business or trade name, followed by a registered address and business industry classification. Amanda Parker, 8300 Buckeye Drive – No business license required – manufacturing, nonprofit and other. Asser’s Medical Trans,
A Tectonic (or Techtonic) Shift in American Politics?
Culture-war populism looks to be giving way to economic populism.
No. 6 Ohio State shifts focus to Kent State
The Buckeyes are 52 1/2 point favorites over the Golden Flashes.
Cardinals Taking Expected Approach with Jeremiyah Love Entering Seahawks Week
Jeremiyah Love is headlining the rookies to keep an eye on this year, and it is for a team that no national rankings have high expectations for: the Arizona Cardinals. That alone tells a lot about the potential he flashed in the preseason games before he unfortunately sprained his ankle. His rough recovery timeline had […] The post Cardinals Taking Expected Approach with Jeremiyah Love Entering Seahawks Week appeared first on HEAVY.
No. 5 SMU Volleyball Eyes Strong Finish Before ACC Play
No. 5 SMU closes non-conference play against Rice and unbeaten Yale as Suli Davis leads a Mustang team coming off two top-10 victories.
Grab Your Popcorn: SEC Week 3 Betting Lines
Grab your popcorn; September 19th is here. The Week 3 SEC slate is exactly what the doctor needed. We had to sleep through the "undefeated" Week 1 matchups and watch as the eyes of Texas shined over the Buckeyes. The Week 3 SEC slate is exactly what CFB fans needed. We have telenovela drama as …
Michigan State Women’s Basketball Schedule Announced: High Expectations
Robyn Fralick’s squad eyes a deep postseason run as stars Kennedy Blair and Theryn Hallock reunite to navigate a daunting Big Ten slate and a fierce rivalry.
Ohio State Week 3 Preview: Breaking Records and Getting Right
Ohio State fell to Texas last week in a collapse. With Kent State next up, the Buckeyes have a prime opportunity to get back in the win column.