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People who lost the most weight on Ozempic saw huge health benefits
People who lost significant weight while taking Ozempic, Wegovy, Mounjaro, or Saxenda had sharply lower risks of major obesity-related health problems, including sleep apnea and kidney disease. Those who gained weight instead faced higher risks — especially for heart failure — even though many patients discontinued the medications within a year.
Sorry, Governor — you are wrong on this one
If you have read even a handful of my several hundred columns during the past few years, you likely ran across me saying nice things about Gov. Jared Polis. I genuinely like the guy, whom I met during our mutual first runs for Congress back in 2008. He was very nice to me, even though, […]
Pirates Decision Makers Respond to Jared Jones' Bullpen Comments
Pittsburgh Pirates right-hander Jared Jones made it somewhat clear how he feels about moving to the bullpen earlier last week. Jones, who has been on a rehab assignment, shut down that narrative right away.
Fact check: Colorado governor’s misleading rationale for freeing election denier Tina Peters
Colorado Gov. Jared Polis justified his decision to release election denier Tina Peters from prison with a series of false and misleading claims, inaccurately distancing her case from efforts to undermine the 2020 election.
Poll: Moderate Jared Moskowitz dominates Dem Primary against progressive Oliver Larkin
About two-thirds of Democratic voters said a moderate Democrat is a smarter choice in the new South Florida battleground.
Maryland ballot blunder triggers GOP push for federal review of blue state's voter rolls
Republicans call for a federal review of Maryland's voter rolls after a ballot vendor error forced the state to resend thousands of primary ballots.
Jarrett Allen said that #Cavs owner Dan Gilbert sent …
Jarrett Allen said that #Cavs owner Dan Gilbert sent …
How a Jared Polis Came to Release Election Denier Tina Peters from Prison
Gov. Jared Polis’s decision to commute the sentence of Tina Peters came after months of tense discussions, including one with President Trump.
Mission admission: AI, data science courses surge across Gujarat campuses
Vadodara: Artificial intelligence (AI), data science and emerging technology programmes are witnessing a major push across Gujarat, with universities rapidly introducing specialised courses to tap growing student demand and industry requirements.
Colorado governor commutes election denier Tina Peters' sentence after Trump pressure
Colorado's Democratic Gov. Jared Polis is commuting the sentence of Tina Peters, an election conspiracy theorist and former county clerk, following pressure from President Trump.
Colorado Gov. Jared Polis grants clemency to Tina Peters, makes her eligible for release from prison
Colorado Gov. Jared Polis on Friday granted clemency to Tina Peters and made the former Republican county clerk eligible for release from state prison as soon as next month, capping months of speculation that the Democratic governor would shorten a nine-year sentence related to her role in a scheme to breach secure voting equipment. Polis, […]
Green signs bill to restrict corporate political spending
Green signs bill to restrict corporate political spending
2026 Phillies Draft Preview Jared Grindlinger, LHP/OF
I always like to start previews with my favorite prospect. That’s often someone the Phillies have no chance at, but not this year. A reclassicification of draft eligibility made this year’s mystery box my favorite, most intriguing option. Grindlinger is a left handed Outfielder and Pitcher and is a potential 1st/2nd rounder in both roles. […]
A Conversation on the Future of the UCF College of Business
Paul Jarley, dean of the College of Business, shares his vision after the largest gift in university history positions UCF to lead the future of technology-driven business education.
Kara Wildman receives 2026 Woman in Business Award
Kara Wildman, owner of Happy Tails in Marshalltown, was presented the 2026 Woman in Business Award during the Marshalltown Area Chamber of Commerce Women in Business Luncheon held at Iowa Valley Business & Community Solutions Dejardin Hall on Thursday, May 14. Presenting Kara with the award was Stella and Jonas Wildman, Kara’s children. It was […]
Bob Myers, Josh Harris address Jared McCain trade; 76ers weighing if 3-max-player roster can still deliver NBA title
Colorado legislators pass bill to strengthen sex crime victim protections
A Colorado bill that supporters say would strengthen victim protections and mandate law enforcement training on how trauma can affect survivors of sex crimes and domestic violence is on its way to Gov. Jared Polis’ desk for signing. Senate Bill 26-095 recently passed unanimously in the Senate and was mostly unopposed in the House, where […]
Legislative wrap-up: Lawmakers pass 120 bills in 2026 session
The 2026 legislative session wrapped with lawmakers approving roughly 120 bills, though how many will ultimately be signed by Gov. Jared Polis remains uncertain. Beyond high‑profile debates over artificial intelligence policy and the state budget, legislators advanced major measures on health care, education, immigration, and public safety. Here is an overview of some of the […]
Free the Economy podcast: Pension politics with Jarrett Skorup
In this week’s episode we cover more legal headaches for the Trump tariffs, keeping kids safe in an AI world, and California’s latest government boondoggle. Our guest this week is Jarrett Skorup, vice president for marketing and communications at the Mackinac Center for Public Policy in Midland, Michigan. We talk about his latest study, “Unions […]
Was that a foul? Pistons lose in OT after no-call costs them free throws at end of regulation
It sure looked like Jarrett Allen tripped Ausar Thompson.
Bill on firearm barrel sales withdrawn after veto threat from Colorado governor
A bill that would require firearm barrels to be sold in person by a federally licensed firearms dealer was pulled by its sponsors, who say they were all but told the measure would be vetoed by Gov. Jared Polis. Sponsored by Sen. Tom Sullivan, D‑Centennial, and Reps. Kyle Brown, D‑Louisville, and Meg Froelich, D‑Englewood, Senate […]
Bill on firearm barrel sales withdrawn after veto threat from Colorado governor’s office
A bill that would require firearm barrels to be sold in person by a federally licensed firearms dealer was pulled by its sponsors, who say they were all but told the measure would be vetoed by Gov. Jared Polis. Sponsored by Sen. Tom Sullivan, D‑Centennial, and Reps. Kyle Brown, D‑Louisville, and Meg Froelich, D‑Englewood, Senate […]
Democrats abandon rollback of business tax breaks to fund family tax credit after Colorado governor’s veto threat
House Bills 1221 and 1222 were killed in the Senate Finance Committee on Monday at their sponsors’ request in response to a veto threat from Gov. Jared Polis
Colorado’s health care cuts are painful — what comes next could be worse
By Ross Brooks and Beverly Razon Last December, a broad coalition of consumer advocates, safety net providers, hospitals, health plans and physicians statewide published a warning: our state was facing a health care crisis, and fragmented policymaking would make it harder to solve. These members of the Colorado Health Policy Forum called on Gov. Jared […]
Colorado’s health care cuts are painful — what comes next could be worse
By Ross Brooks and Beverly Razon Last December, a broad coalition of consumer advocates, safety net providers, hospitals, health plans and physicians statewide published a warning: our state was facing a health care crisis, and fragmented policymaking would make it harder to solve. These members of the Colorado Health Policy Forum called on Gov. Jared […]
Gov. Polis, please veto House Bill 1210
As Gov. Jared Polis reviews House Bill 1210, I hope he will think about families like mine. For people trying to balance work, parenting and rising costs, discounts from delivery apps are an important part of how I take care of my family. Let me explain: for a long time, I didn’t have a car. […]
Jared Wolff Plots Banc of Cal's Next Chapter - Los Angeles Business Journal
Sitting at the helm of the $34 billion Banc of California, Jared Wolff is too busy to think about legacy. In seven years as the Brentwood-based regional
Red Sox’s Jarren Duran deletes Instagram account after criticizing NBC Sports’ Michael Holley
If you can’t take the heat, stay off Instagram. On Friday, NBC Sports Boston’s Michael Holley expressed doubts about the Boston Red Sox’s honesty regarding Roman Anthony’s ongoing injury situation. “I understand why all teams do it, but let’s just be honest. All teams lie. They lie about injuries, they just do,” said Holley. “Tell me…
Favorite things to do in Egypt, according to a local of 30 years
As a woman who lives in Egypt, some of my favorite things to do include hiking Mount Sinai, hot-air ballooning in Luxor, and visiting the Djara Cave.
UCSC researcher aims to fill gaps in Pajaro Valley air monitoring data, help farmworkers deal with pollution health impacts
Javier González-Rocha, an assistant professor of mathematics at UC Santa Cruz, has been working to identify air monitoring data gaps in the Pajaro Valley to better inform farmworkers and the local community.
NiJaree Canady's last ride: Texas Tech's million-dollar ace has final shot at title
NiJaree Canady threw a perfect game and got drafted by the AUSL. She's the face of NIL in NCAA softball, but has one more thing to do with Texas Tech.
Colorado governor signs $47 billion budget in which ‘nobody won’
Gov. Jared Polis on Friday officially signed a $46.87 billion spending plan for the Colorado state government in the next fiscal year. His signature is the culmination of months of work by legislators, who resorted to cuts, transfers and other mechanisms to balance the 2026-27 budget amid a deficit of more than $1 billion. That […]
Costa Rica’s paradox of political continuity
Across Latin America, voters have punished incumbents and rejected traditional parties. Costa Rica appears to be an exception.
Meghan Dutkovich Commits To Pitt-Johnstown For Soccer
By: Jared Barton North Allegheny junior Meghan Dutkovich has announced where she will be attending to compete at the next level. The outside back announced on social media Thursday that she will study psychology and play for Pitt-Johnstown. View this post on Instagram A post shared by Meghan Dutkovich (@meghan_dutkovich) Dutkovich has two career… More »
Scientists: Forgo the jargon and focus on the people, experts say
Nearly half of Americans say scientists are not good communicators, but there are ways experts can better connect, researchers said at Technical.ly’s 2026 Builders Conference.
Colorado Gov. Polis faces intense lobbying blitz from DC-based groups over credit card ‘swipe-fee’ bill
Colorado’s long‑running fight over credit‑card swipe fees entered its final round Tuesday, when lawmakers sent a proposal to Gov. Jared Polis and rival industry coalitions immediately launched competing campaigns to sway his decision. The clash pits groups urging Polis to sign the bill — restaurants, hotels, breweries, liquor stores, small businesses, and big‑box retailers — […]
Pirates starter Jared Jones solid in rehab assignment with Indianapolis
Jones moved up three levels following his first rehab start to pitch in Triple-A.
When the state controls science
Evidence-based policy making is on the ropes and federal agencies are deeply compromised. There’s a historical precedent, unfortunately.
Lakers' Jarred Vanderbilt leaves Game 1 loss to Thunder early after gruesome finger injury, considered day-to-day
FOX Business names TGU Home Solutions one winner of ‘Made in America’ contest
TGU Home Solutions President and CEO Jared Gay discusses winning Fox Business’ ‘Made in America’ small business contest and his custom home enterprise on ‘Mornings with Maria.’
USA TODAY Sports Network 2026 All-Big 12 softball awards, coach and player of the year
A trio of Texas Tech players, including superstar NiJaree Canady, highlight the USA TODAY Sports Network 2026 All-SEC softball awards.
Lakers' Jarred Vanderbilt leaves Game 1 loss to Thunder early after gruesome finger injury
Poll: Scott Singer unpopular in Boca Raton, even as Jared Moskowitz over performs in new CD 25
The GOP's other choice, George Moraitis, fares better.
IPL 2026: Sai Sudharsan scripts history, shatters Chris Gayle’s 13-year record
Gujarat Titans opener Sai Sudharsan has rewritten IPL history, surpassing Chris Gayle for the most runs after 50 matches with 2178 runs. He also recently became the fastest to 2000 runs in just 47 innings. Sudharsan's consistent performances, including a century and three fifties in his last four innings, highlight his remarkable rise.
Jarrett Allen silences critics with the game of his life
Despite constant calls to trade him and complaints that he's not the man the Cleveland Cavaliers need, Jarrett Allen steps up huge in the game of his life as the Cavs defeat the Toronto Raptors and move on to Round 2.
Have West Ham given Tottenham an escape route?
When Tomas Soucek's effort grazed the post in the final stages of West Ham United's defeat at Brentford on Saturday afternoon, their supporters could've been forgiven for exchanging exasperated looks. The 3-0 scoreline at Gtech Community Stadium may point to a comfortable victory for Keith Andrews' Europe-chasing side, but it tells only half the story. Victory would have lifted West Ham five points clear of the bottom three, but instead they have left the door ajar for Tottenham to leapfrog them with victory at Aston Villa on Sunday night.
Too early projection of the 2026-27 Penguins
It’ll be another offseason of change in Pittsburgh. Last season, the Penguins dropped eight players from the last game of the 2024-25 season to the following opening night lineup in October. A few more like Phil Tomasino, Danton Heinen and Tristan Jarry were soon to follow not long after the season began. That adds up […]
Jared Kushner, Steve Witkoff and the Profitable Business of Peace
The Trump administration is turning diplomacy into an asset to be leveraged.
Common-sense guardrails for new data center development benefit people, the planet
By Joe Antus Colorado’s business leaders are right about one thing: Colorado is at an inflection point. In a recent letter to Gov. Jared Polis, members of the technology and business community argued Colorado’s innovation economy must not only grow, but “serve the long-term prosperity and well-being of the people and communities of Colorado.” Signal […]
4 things you missed from Musk v. Altman trial this week
Elon Musk faced another day of cross-examination. Jared Birchall, Musk's wealth manager, was the next witness called in the blockbuster OpenAI trial.
PickleJar Entertainment Group Provides Fan Engagement Platform for Romantic Comedy Sunflower Child Starring Gavin Casalegno
Following Buyer Introduction at European Film Market in Berlin, MSR Media International to Continue International Distribution Push at Upcoming Cannes Film Festival Amazon's "The Summer I Turned Pretty" Star Leads Ensemble Cast; Project Now in Post-P...
Congressional Republicans propose cutting WIC by $200 million
Anti-hunger advocates say it would be “devastating.”
Congressional Republicans propose cutting WIC by $200 million
Anti-hunger advocates say it would be “devastating.”
50-foot ancient snake discovered in India may be one of the largest ever
A massive prehistoric snake discovered in India may rank among the largest ever to slither across Earth. Named Vasuki indicus, this ancient giant lived around 47 million years ago and is estimated to have stretched an astonishing 11 to 15 meters long—rivaling the legendary Titanoboa. Fossilized vertebrae unearthed from a lignite mine in Gujarat reveal a thick-bodied, powerful snake likely built for slow, stealthy ambush attacks, similar to modern anacondas.
Colorado declares April 27 ‘Denver Summit FC Day’
Gov. Jared Polis signed a proclamation declaring April 27 Denver Summit FC Day in Colorado in celebration of the state’s first professional women’s sports team. “Colorado is a sports state and Denver Summit has hit the field running, breaking NWSL attendance records at the Empower Field home opener,” Polis said. “I am thrilled the Summit […]
Play can improve health. Tech is making that happen.
A new grant from the Flinn Foundation is allowing computer scientist Jared Duval to expand his work around making healthcare technology both effective and fun. Duval, an assistant professor in the School of Informatics, Computing, and Cyber Systems, won the two-year, $300,000 grant to support his work in health-related research that benefits Arizona. His far-reaching work, which includes everything from helping…
Iran talks to resume this weekend without Vance
The White House will send Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to talks in Islamabad, Pakistan, as Tehran decides not to send its top negotiator.
Tesla Q1 earnings, sales top forecasts as company sees 'tailwinds' boosting auto business
Tesla will report first quarter earnings after the bell on Wednesday, with Wall Street focused on the company's slow-to-evolve Robotaxi rollout and capital expenditures, which are expected to balloon due to the company's AI ventures.
Tesla earnings, sales top forecasts as company sees 'tailwinds' boosting auto business
Tesla will report first quarter earnings after the bell on Wednesday, with Wall Street focused on the company's slow-to-evolve Robotaxi rollout and capital expenditures, which are expected to balloon due to the company's AI ventures.
MIT affiliates elected to the American Academy of Arts and Sciences for 2026
MIT professors Isaiah Andrews, David Atkin, Pablo Jarillo-Herrero, and Benjamin Weiss, along with 13 additional MIT alumni, were elected to the American Academy of Arts and Sciences for 2026.
This week in Santa Cruz County business: Graniterock facing lawsuit over Pajaro River; housing development at former Outdoor World site moves forward
In her weekly look at local business, Jessica M. Pasko reports on a lawsuit filed by environmental groups against Watsonville's Graniterock, development continuing in downtown Santa Cruz and plenty more names, numbers and dates to know.
UEG Expands Celebrity Brand Building Business Ventures Division
UEG Ventures will combine star wattage, investment and strategic advice to move the needle for consumer brands and businesses.
Popular baby food brand hit by 'criminal act' as rat poison found in seized jar
Authorities warn of potentially life-threatening contamination after rat poison was found in a tampered baby food jar likely sold in Europe.
San Diego Politics Show: CA-48 candidate Ammar Campa-Najjar
Four-time candidate Ammar Campa-Najjar discusses his campaign for CA-48, one of the most-watched races in the country.
Justin Stalter Commits To Waynesburg Basketball
By: Jared Barton North Allegheny multi-sport athlete Justin Stalter has made his commitment to the next level. Stalter posted on social media Friday that he will be playing basketball for Waynesburg University. Stalter was a multi-year starter and contributor to both the basketball team and the boys’ soccer program. He was a soccer captain this past… More »
Trump envoy faces 'sweeping' investigation over business ties, diplomatic role
Democratic U.S. Representative Jamie Raskin launched what he described as a "sweeping" investigation into U.S. President Donald Trump's envoy and son-in-law, Jared Kushner, over a potential conflict of interest, according to an April 17 press release. The inquiry focuses on Kushner's dual role as a diplomatic intermediary and head of a private equity firm, raising questions about whether his financial ties could influence U.S. foreign policy decisions. Kushner has played a central role in Trum
Governor’s wildlife commission picks face pushback ahead of Colorado Senate hearing
Colorado’s largest coalition of hunters, anglers, and wildlife conservation groups is urging state lawmakers to reject two of Gov. Jared Polis’ latest nominees to the Colorado Parks and Wildlife Commission, setting up a contentious confirmation hearing before the Senate Agriculture and Natural Resources Committee next week. Gaspar Perricone, speaking for the Colorado Wildlife Conservation Project, […]
‘For All Mankind’ Boss Explains A.J. Jarrett’s ‘Comeback’ Story
Executive producer Matt Wolpert also talked about casting the perfect Gordo and Tracy look-alike.
Jardines and CK Hutchison pursue Hong Kong supermarket megadeal, FT reports
Hong Kong-based Jardines is in talks with CK Hutchison to buy its supermarket division, which trades as ParknShop, and merge it with Wellcome, the Financial Times reported on Friday, citing people familiar with the matter.
Jarrett Allen provides update on injured knee: ‘It’s better’
Allen will be ready for the playoffs, but he wouldn’t commit to feeling 100%.
How Dangerous Is Anthropic’s New AI Model? Its Chief Science Officer Explains.
Just how fast is the future coming at us, and how worried should we be? Last week, Anthropic announced Claude Mythos, the latest in what has become the leading family of AI models. In a very short time, AI models from Anthropic and other companies have become shockingly powerful at coding. But Mythos stands out because it is not just able to write code that can hack into critical systems, like those that run financial companies, but also to analyze systems and find and string together vulnerabilities in them, allowing Mythos to evade even sophisticated defenses. Anthropic chose to release Mythos to only about 40 leading corporations, so they could analyze the model’s capabilities and prepare countermeasures, in an effort it calls Project Glasswing. The release of Mythos—and the prospect of similarly powerful AIs to follow—has caused tremors at the top levels of Washington and corporate America. Jared Kaplan, co-founder and chief science officer at Anthropic, is at the center of this breakthrough. We sat down with Kaplan so he could walk us through just how powerful Mythos is, what the implications are for issues like our personal privacy, and what comes next. This conversation has been edited for length and clarity. Sean Fischer: For the layman, how is Claude Mythos different—more powerful, more dangerous—from previous models released by Anthropic? Jared Kaplan: I think most people have experienced the fact that our computers get faster and faster over time and over many decades. There’s this very smooth trend where every 18 months, maybe, computer processing power doubles. I think AI is on a trend in which it’s improving maybe 10 times faster than that. A lot of the earliest work that I did in AI was around identifying this scaling trend in AI. Claude Mythos is the latest model from Anthropic, but it’s not different because it’s qualitatively different. It’s really just kind of the culmination of the trend of AI models getting smarter and smarter at all kinds of general capabilities, from reasoning to software engineering to scientific research to knowledge work. For us, it was the first model to demonstrate very elite-level cybersecurity capabilities. It wasn’t because we trained Claude Mythos to focus on cybersecurity, but it was because, as a byproduct of its general intelligence and its general ability with software, it’s particularly good at identifying vulnerabilities in software and how to exploit them.
Jarren Duran says he made obscene gesture to fan due to heckle over mental health
"I’m going to flip somebody off if they say something to me, but it is what it is."
Jarren Duran explains obscene gesture after fan’s mental health heckle
The incident occurred in the fifth inning of the Sox’ 6-0 loss to the Twins.
CEPI and PAHO expand partnership to strengthen regulatory systems and vaccine safety across the Americas
The agreements build on a broader five-year Memorandum of Understanding, signed in 2024.
Iran war has some US water utilities facing a fluoride shortage
Some U.S. water utilities are reporting that the Middle East war is disrupting their ability to maintain recommended fluoride levels in the drinking water.
Jarred Vanderbilt talks about incident with Lakers coach JJ Redick
Jarred Vanderbilt seems like he has put his heated interaction with Lakers coach JJ Redick in the past.
Queen City business' tip jar stolen from by man with knife
According to Manchester Police, 28-year-old Christopher Webber was inside the business and employees noticed he had a knife.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
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