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The real storm chasers of the Great Plains
A veteran chaser separates Hollywood magic from the real, on-the-ground excitement of tornado season.
Magic mushrooms make mean fish lazier and more chill
Psilocybin may selectively lower aggressive behavior in the the notoriously nasty mangrove rivulus.
An Enchanted Weekend Of Fantasy, Food, And Entertainment For The Whole Family
LEONARDTOWN, Md. — Huzzah, y’all! The Lord Mayor of the medieval Town of Leonard invites you to step into a world of fantasy and imagination at RenFest Southern Maryland. The event returns Memorial Day weekend with an energetic two-day celebration of live entertainment, medieval merriment and magical moments. The residents of the local town stand […]
Gamethread 5/5: Athletics at Phillies
Does the Mattingly Magic come home?
Single dose of magic mushroom psychedelic can cause anatomical brain changes, study finds
Participants took 25mg of psilocybin, reporting deeper psychological insight and better wellbeing a month later
No, these rainbow clouds over Indonesia are not AI
The stunning meteorological phenomenon is 'truly magical.'
Magic fire coach Jamahl Mosley after another first-round playoff loss
Orlando's loss to the Pistons after leading the series 3-1 ultimately led to Mosley getting ousted.
Magic fire Jamahl Mosley after another first-round playoff loss
Orlando allowed Toronto to score 31 unanswered points in a 52-point loss earlier in the season that spelled poorly for Mosley's future with the team.
An ace and his catcher remember Cocalico baseball\'s golden era 6 decades later
They stood 60 feet, 6 inches apart, just like the old days. The mind was willing to try to recreate the magic. The body? Not so much.
Detroit restaurants and businesses see boom amid Pistons playoff run
A huge win for the Pistons means a huge win for Detroit businesses, too. After the Pistons shut down the Magic on Sunday, restaurants were ready for the rush of it all.
Pistons rout Magic to complete comeback, advance in NBA playoffs
The Detroit Pistons dominated the Orlando Magic 116-94 on Sunday to complete their NBA playoff series comeback and punch their ticket to the Eastern Conference semi-finals.The Cavs hosted game seven of their series later on Sunday.
Pistons run away from Magic in Game 7 to complete comeback from 3-1 series hole
The Pistons have remarkably advanced after facing a 3-1 series deficit and a 24-point hole in the second half of an elimination Game 6.
‘Magic for Non-believers’ to change minds
Peter Boie will perform “Magic for Non-believers” at the Blue Hill Public Library on Saturday, May 16, at 3 p.m.
TST Best Bets: May 3, 2026
After the Philadelphia 76ers became the 14th team to ever come back from a 3-1 lead to win the series, the Detroit Pistons enter Sunday on the brink of history themselves. Detroit looked to be in dire straits against the Orlando Magic, as their physical defense made for a very poor matchup with the Pistons’ lack of secondary offensive creators behind Cade Cunningham. However, aided by an untimely injury to Franz Wagner for the Magic, the Pistons have started to look like the 60-win team they wer
Pistons vs Magic preview: It’s time for Game 7
It’s do or die time. Game Vitals Where: Little Caesars Arena in Detroit, MIWhen: Sunday, May 3 at 3:30 PM ESTWatch: ABCOdds: Pistons (-8.5) Analysis Game 7, baby – IT’S TIIIME! Lineups Detroit Pistons (3-3): Cade Cunningham, Duncan Robinson, Ausar Thompson, Tobias Harris, Jalen Duren Orlando Magic (3-3): Jalen Suggs, Desmond Bane, Jamal Cain, Paolo Banchero, Wendell Carter Jr Question of […]
Lucy Powell says Labour has ‘no magic bullet’ as MPs brace for heavy losses in local elections
Deputy leader plays down leadership talk and says party must focus on long-term challenges rather than personnel
Game 7 predictions! Who wins Magic-Pistons and Raptors-Cavaliers? Are Knicks the team to beat in the East?
Magic's Franz Wagner out for Game 7 showdown with Pistons, missing third straight game with calf strain
Finally: After Years of Pressure, SeaWorld Is Changing Theme Park Entertainment
SeaWorld is finally changing course.
Orlando Tragic: The wildest numbers of the Magic's 24-point collapse against the Pistons
Pistons Stun Magic With Historic Second Half in Game 6
The Detroit Pistons stunned the Orlando Magic with a 55-19 second half surge to win Game 6 and force a decisive Game 7.
Cade Cunningham leads Pistons comeback to force Game 7 as Magic collapse
Orlando grew a 22-point lead heading into halftime, but an ice-cold streak for the Magic gave Detroit a window to get it all back.
Immersive and magical retail experiences at Broadway at the Beach for summer 2026
The Cloak and Wand is expected to open June 1, welcoming customers into a whimsical world of witchcraft and wizardry.
Wizards of the Coast Is Making a Brand New Trading Card Game
Almost 30 years in the making, 'Mood Swings' wants to deliver a smaller, quicker, and more accessible card game experience that not even 'Magic: The Gathering' can provide.
Top-seeded Pistons stay alive in playoffs with Magic win
An epic Cade Cunningham performance kept top-seeded Detroit's NBA playoff run alive in a crucial 116-109 victory over the Orlando Magic on Wednesday.The Magic -- who only qualified for the playoffs via the play-in tournament -- will have another chance to finish a surprise series win on Friday back in Orlando.
Cade Cunningham drops Detroit record 45 points to power Pistons past Magic in Game 5, avoid elimination
Cade Cunningham drops 45 points to power Pistons past Magic in Game 5, avoid elimination
Cade Cunningham's 45 points are the most in a playoff game in Pistons history.
Magic Johnson Issues Apology to 76ers After Win Against Celtics
Magic Johnson thought the 76ers-Celtics series was over after Boston's 32-point win in Game 4.
Pistons-Magic takeaways: Detroit's problems are coming to a head as Orlando aims to dunk No. 1 seed
Let's dive into Orlando's big win Monday night as it tries to become the seventh No. 8 seed to knock off a No. 1 in NBA history.
Jamal Cain throws down vicious one-handed dunk through Jalen Duren in Game 4 as Magic take stunning 3-1 lead over Pistons
Jalen Duren just never stood a chance at stopping Jamal Cain at the rim.
Philomath voters will decide on city's psilocybin-related business ban
Voters in Philomath will decide in May whether to prohibit psilocybin-related businesses and manufacturing within city limits.
Disney's political fight with Ron DeSantis cost company years of theme park expansion, court records reveal
Disney's political statement on Florida's Parental Rights in Education Act led to costly lawsuits, legal battles, and years of theme park delays.
Where to watch Detroit Pistons vs Orlando Magic Game 4 NBA playoffs: Live stream, start time, TV channel, odds for Monday, April 27
The Magic hold a 2-1 lead in the series entering Game 4.
Canva apologizes after its AI tool replaces ‘Palestine’ in designs
How does this even happen?
Magical Abilities Removed From Upcoming Assassin's Creed Hexe, Leak Suggests
Fresh leaks point to a major change for the upcoming witchcraft-themed Assassin's Creed Hexe, and expectation of an Assassin's Creed 1 remake.
Epstein files show extent of his unsavory relationships with magicians David Blaine and David Copperfield
A CNN review of the Epstein files found numerous messages and photos that show the extent of the financier’s interactions with two prominent magicians.
Community Spotlight: The Impossible Science Festival
DECATUR, Ill. (WCIA) — The Macon Piatt Regional Office of Education is hosting an event in Decatur at the start of May that combines STEAM learning with stage-performance magic. Jill Reedy, R…
TST Best Bets: April 26, 2026
The overlooked lower-seeded playoff teams of the Eastern Conference have turned the first round into chaos, with every series producing upsets or serious scares for contenders.The eighth-seeded Orlando Magic are the most shocking story of the postseason so far, as they hold a 2-1 series lead over the top-seeded Detroit Pistons. Both the Cleveland Cavaliers and Boston Celtics faced first round matchups that looked like relatively easy first-round draws, taking on a fledgling Toronto Raptors squad
Rampant Gilgeous-Alexander fuels Thunder, Magic and Knicks win
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored 42 points Saturday to propel the Oklahoma City Thunder to a 121-109 victory over Phoenix and a commanding 3-0 lead in their NBA playoff series.They'll try to polish off a sweep in the best-of-seven series on Monday in Phoenix, where the Suns will be painfully aware that no NBA team has rallied from 0-3 down to win a playoff series.
Where to watch Orlando Magic vs. Detroit Pistons Game 3 NBA playoffs: Live stream, start time, TV channel, odds for Saturday, April 25
Cade Cunningham and the Pistons face the Magic in Game 3 of their first-round playoff series.
Magic & Wonder Dinner Theater casts spell with 2026 season of magic and music
Magic & Wonder Dinner Theater is immersing its audiences in magic from the time they walk through the door this season.
Pistons look to carry momentum into Game 3 vs. Magic
The Detroit Pistons almost were unrecognizable for the first six quarters of their first-round series against the Orlando Magic, but that all changed in the span of about eight minutes.
2025-26 NBA Playoff Odds: Why Long-Shot Magic Are Best Bet to Win East
If you believe in magic like Will Hill, long-shot Orlando to win the East might be a bet you want to consider. Here's why.
NBA Playoffs Power Rankings for the remaining teams
The NBA Playoffs are underway. The early story was the Orlando Magic giving the Detroit Pistons issues. Orlando entered the playoffs confidently, and it has shown through two games. The biggest story is the health of San Antonio’s Victor Wembanyama.…
Goodbye, OTPs and magic links: Signing up for new Android apps just got a lot easier
Google has introduced a new Verified Email feature to Android, and it's about to make signing up for new apps much easier.
MHS sports weekly notebook from the diamond to the court
High fives for boys tennis The Marblehead High boys tennis team (5-1) made it five in a row after beating hosts Swampscott (5-0, April 13) and non-league Lynnfield (4-1, April 16) last week. It’s always good to beat your longtime rival, and that’s what the Magicians did to the Big Blue, under the direction of
Magic-Pistons takeaways: Cade Cunningham shines, but questions remain about consistency and supporting cast
For the second game in a row, Cunningham was the main driving force, with little contributions elsewhere, in the first half.
Pistons tie series with monster run to wipe out Magic 98-83 in Game 2
The Detroit Pistons used an insane 30-3 run to open the third quarter, breaking the Orlando Magic in Game 2 to tie the NBA playoff series at 1-1.
Rookie VJ Edgecombe's playoff breakout sends 76ers past Celtics, puts him in company with Magic Johnson
Computer Science Student Deemed 'Wizard' For Tech Acumen
Seeing Sierra Brandt’s technological magic in action led Erica Cullwell to dub Brandt “The Departmental Wizard” of the Career Center.Not only was Brandt able to resolve a longstanding problem for the Career Center, her solution will support Cal State San Marcos students for years to come.Brandt is a transfer student from MiraCosta Communit...
A Realm Reborn in Magic: The Gathering®—FINAL FANTASY™
Cameron Williams discusses how Magic: The Gathering—FINAL FANTASY's designers brought the critically acclaimed MMORPG to Magic.
Zombie Magic, old LeBron, Wemby’s debut & more thoughts on every NBA Playoff series + Warriors drama & LaMelo’s future with Jason Timpf, Kelly Iko & Noa Dalzell
Science Expeditions Campus Open House brings STEM wonder to the whole family - Morgridge Institute for Research
The Discovery Building and other venues across campus brought the magic of STEM discovery to visitors of all ages at Science Expeditions Campus Open House, a flagship spring event for science engagement.
Orbán’s Hungary Defeat Shows Disinformation is Not a Political Magic Trick
Counter-disinformation work should be supported continually, not to prevent certain election outcomes but to give voters the chance to make an informed choice.
NBA playoffs 2026 takeaways: Pistons disappear against Magic; Wemby dominates; Thunder roll to begin title defense; Jayson Tatum stars in Celtics' big win
NBA playoffs 2026 takeaways: Pistons disappear against Magic; Thunder roll to begin title defense; Jayson Tatum stars in Celtics' big win
Detroit Pistons home playoff losing streak now at 18 years
The Detroit Pistons extended their NBA-record home playoff losing streak to 11 games with a Game 1 loss to the Orlando Magic on Sunday, April 19.
NBA playoffs 2026 takeaways: Jayson Tatum the best player on the floor in Celtics' dominant Game 1 win over 76ers
The 2026 NBA playoffs continues Sunday with four Game 1s: 76ers-Celtics, Suns-Thunder, Magic-Pistons and Trail-Blazers-Spurs. We're breaking down the key takeaways from each game.
Common cleaning sponge found to release trillions of microplastic fibers
That “magic” sponge under your sink may be hiding an environmental downside. While melamine sponges are famous for effortlessly scrubbing away stubborn stains, they slowly break down as you use them—shedding tiny plastic fibers that wash into water systems. Researchers estimate that globally, these sponges could release over a trillion microplastic fibers every month, potentially entering the food chain and affecting wildlife.
NBA play-in 2026: Suns emphatically end Warriors' season to claim West's final playoff spot, Magic advance in East
Player Grades: Magic, Banchero smash Hornets to earn playoff berth
Behind a dominant performance, the Magic defeated the Hornets in the play-in tournament on Friday to earn the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference.
Pictures: Orlando Magic rout Charlotte to clinch Playoff Spot
Stephen M. Dowell/Orlando Sentinel) Orlando coach Jamahl Mosley yells during the Charlotte Hornets at Orlando Magic NBA Play-In game at the Kia Center on Friday, April 17, 2026. Stephen M. Dowell/Orlando Sentinel) Orlando forward Franz Wagner (middle) scores between Charlotte defenders Brandon Miller (24) and Miles Bridges (0) during the Charlotte Hornets at Orlando Magic NBA Play-In game at the Kia Center on Friday, April 17, 2026. Stephen M. Dowell/Orlando Sentinel) Orlando coach Jamahl Mosley signals during the Charlotte Hornets at Orlando Magic NBA Play-In game at the Kia Center on Friday, April 17, 2026.
Magic rout Hornets as final NBA playoff spots decided
The Orlando Magic thrashed the Charlotte Hornets 121-90 to keep their season alive as the NBA playoffs' final teams were determined Friday.The Golden State Warriors take on the Phoenix Suns later Friday for the Western Conference's No. 8 seed, after which the full NBA playoff schedule will be finalized.
NBA playoffs 2026: Hornets-Magic, Warriors-Suns wrap up play-in tournament Friday, seeking No. 8 seeds in East and West
I went to Coachella and masqueraded as an influencer for 48 hours. Unfortunately, it was amazing.
Some people say the California music festival has lots its magic. Maybe it has, but it's still a spectacle.
Blackmagic Camera app gets Apple Watch companion
Blackmagic Design, ahead of NAB 2026, updated its Blackmagic Camera app to include a new Apple Watch control option.
Two Magicians Warn the Supreme Court About Junk Science
Penn & Teller filed a Supreme Court brief questioning the use of “investigative hypnosis” in a death-penalty case in Texas.
Magic Johnson's transition from basketball to business
NBA icon Magic Johnson delivered a high-energy, deeply personal talk at Wake Forest University’s Face-to-Face Speaker Forum on Tuesday night, shifting seamlessly from storytelling to a masterclass in business, discipline and community impact. Interviewed by college basketball commentator Jay Bilas, Johnson commanded the stage — and eventually the aisles — blending humor, sermon-like energy and […]
NBA playoffs 2026: Stephen Curry, Warriors end Clippers' season after Sixers outlast Magic
Tyrese Maxey-led Sixers outlast Magic in play-in tournament, will face Celtics in first round of playoffs
Philadelphia is returning to the playoffs after missing out last season.
NBA playoffs 2026: Play-in tournament scores, live updates: Steph Curry, Warriors take on Clippers after Sixers outlast Magic
Jonathan Isaac is OUT for the Magic tonight
Jonathan Isaac is OUT for the Magic tonight
NBA playoffs 2026: Play-in tournament scores, live updates: Magic face 76ers without Joel Embiid; Steph Curry, Warriors take on Clippers
Adobe is making bold claims about its new Firefly AI Assistant
"All of Adobe’s magic in a single wand."
NBA play-in predictions: Magic-76ers? Warriors-Clippers? Our takes on who will advance
‘Scarpetta,’ ‘Heated Rivalry’ and more shows based on books
From comedy and crime to magical realism, these TV series based on books will hook you, then leave you wanting more.
Blackmagic Debuts $29K+ URSA Cine Immersive 100G for Vision Pro
Blackmagic has announced a new version of its URSA Cine Immersive camera, the first commercial camera system designed to capture 3D content for the Vision Pro. The URSA Cine Immersive 100G adds 100G Ethernet to the original camera to deliver the bandwidth needed to output live immersive video for the first time.
'Cherki has bought true freedom and creative magic'
Manchester City are finding their stride at the perfect time and it's the most daunting of warnings being issued simultaneously to those of an Arsenal persuasion. Mikel Arteta's side stumbled and Pep Guardiola's players pounced and at the heart of that deadly punch was Rayan Cherki, who grabbed the Chelsea game by the scruff of its neck to take all three points. Chelsea frustrated and on numerous occasions threatened to do their London rivals a favour in the first half on Sunday, but it was City who stood firm, albeit whilst not creating too much themselves.
10 thoughts and tidbits on Sixers vs. Magic play-in tournament game
Ahead of the Sixers’ play-in tournament game vs. the Magic, here are 10 thoughts and tidbits.
Blackmagic's DaVinci Resolve 21 takes on Adobe Lightroom with a new Photo page
Many creators are now using DaVinci Resolve instead of Adobe Premiere, and now Blackmagic Design is going after Photoshop.
Blackmagic Design announces Blackmagic URSA Cine 12K LF 100G
Blackmagic Design today announced Blackmagic URSA Cine 12K LF 100G, a new model in the URSA Cine family with 100G Ethernet for high-frame-rate SMPTE-2110 live production output up to 440 fps. Building on the digital film features of the URSA Cine 12K LF, including the large format RGBW 36x24mm sensor, the new model adds dramatically faster … Continued
Secrets of Strixhaven MTG Arena Event Schedule
Prepare for the release of Magic's latest set on MTG Arena! Check out all the events ahead of the set's digital release on April 21.
Orlando Magic vs. Philadelphia 76ers - Live Score
View the Orlando Magic vs. Philadelphia 76ers game played on April 15, 2026. Box score, stats, play-by-play timeline, highlights, odds & more
Poll: Will Steph Curry and the Warriors Advance?
The NBA play-in tournament begins Tuesday, with eight teams looking to advance in the NBA playoffs. On Tuesday, the Phoenix Suns (7 seed) host the Portland Trail Blazers (8), and the Charlotte Hornets (9) host the Miami Heat (10). On Wednesday, the Philadelphia 76ers (7) host the Orlando Magic (8), and the Los Angeles Clippers (9) host the Golden State Warriors (10).
Shorthanded Celtics upset Magic in 113-108 stunner (PHOTOS)
The Boston Celtics needed just eight players to upset the Orlando Magic on Sunday night.
NBA play-in games taking shape: Heat-Hornets, Magic-76ers are set
The East play-in games are set | 97.3 The Sky
Donald Trump's Incompetence Is Costing Him the Country: Commentary
Donald Trump has led us to chaos — war with Iran, spiking gas prices, unstable markets — that may lose him the Republican party and the nation.
Trump wants to paint a White House office building with ‘magic paint.’ Experts advise against it
President Donald Trump privately advocated for painting an ornate federal office building next to the White House with a “magic paint with silicate,” CNN has learned. But ahead of a key vote on exterior changes to the sprawling Gilded Age structure, a panel of experts is warning the so-called magic paint could be incompatible with the Eisenhower Executive Office Building’s granite exterior.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
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It’s now been a decade since the Pittsburgh Penguins hoisted their fourth Stanley Cup, and ten years later, the team is looking to recapture that magic once more. Only four members remain from the 2015-16 team: Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang, and Bryan Rust. Four guys who not only know what it’s like to […] The post Could the 2026 Pittsburgh Penguins Recapture the Magic of 2016? appeared first on The Lead.