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In the Lindsay Clancy trial, mental health treatment is also on the stand
It already worked against Latarsha Sanders, the Brockton mother found guilty of killing her two youngest children.
Polar bear pulls seal pup onto ice then backs away. The reason why is extraordinary
Mother seals usually stay close to their pups and this polar bear tried to use that fact to its advantage.
Savannah Guthrie speaks out on 'agony' of Nancy Guthrie's disappearance
Savannah Guthrie has released an emotional new video statement as authorities in Arizona continue to search for her 84-year-old mother.
The New Face of Progressive Politics in Japan
Can a mother dreaming of peace for children lead the most progressive political party in Japan?
Amid the social and political panic about falling birthrates, why not ask new mothers what they think?
New research reveals deep anxieties. Medals and cash bonuses have been mooted as incentives, but the real need is for women to have their feelings valued, says author and journalist Lucy Jones
It looks like Sen. Bill Cassidy is hurting public health again
The Louisiana senator and physician has pledged support for Trump's nominee for CDC director based on assurances on vaccines. He did the same with RFK Jr.
Kilmarnock sell left-back Thompson to Beveren
Kilmarnock have sold left-back Dominic Thompson to Belgian top-flight club Beveren. The 25-year-old Englishman, who has signed a two-year contract with the side who won the Challenger Pro League to earn promotion last season, joined Kilmarnock from Scottish Premiership rivals Motherwell last summer. Thompson told Beveren's website he was pleased to join a team that "comes into this with a lot of confidence after an incredible unbeaten season".
Nolan’s ‘Odyssey’ an epic emotional outburst of present politics, pains
Rather than a dry historical retelling, Christopher Nolan's mammoth take on "The Odyssey" is an emotional, messy, and angry statement of modern politics and posturing.
Postpartum psychosis or murder? Trial of mother who killed her kids spotlights mental health
Lindsay Clancy’s mental wellbeing will be a central question during her trial for strangling her three children to death
Packers Made Whopping $753 Million in Revenue Last Season
The Packers, and the NFL overall, remain a financial behemoth.
When is 'Mother Mary' streaming? How to watch the A24 horror at home.
Stream one of our favorite movies of 2026 (so far) at home.
I Just Realized Where I Know 'Five Star Weekend' Actor Timothy Olyphant from...and I'm Freaking Out
Actor Timothy Olyphant is having a moment, with viewers especially excited to see him opposite Jennifer Garner in 'The Five Star Weekend.' But I just realized where else I know him from, and this blew my mind.
'Cue Debbie Downer horn': Public Health urges Jimothy fans of raccoon health risks
On 'Little Miss Twain,' Shania Twain reflects on her humble beginnings and her late mother
Shania Twain's new album, “Little Miss Twain,” explores her early life in Northern Ontario, Canada, a chapter she says most of her fans don't know much about.
In Gaza, a mother's hunt for water lays bare a worsening health crisis
In pre-dawn darkness, Ibtisam Al-Helou leaves her tent on Gaza's seafront on a daily search for fresh water. The Mediterranean lies only a few steps away, but the water she needs to cook, drink and wash will mean a trek across Gaza City.
Wooly Mammoth startup Colossal seeking at least $20B valuation
Its research could be foundational in pharmaceuticals, climate change reversal, and longevity.
What it takes for moms inspired by Serena Williams to return to sports
For mothers who left sports behind, getting back in the game takes more than motivation. A new mommy-and-me tennis class and childcare grant are making their dreams possible again.
Cells from your mother likely infiltrated your brain in the womb, and they could survive for decades, study reveals
Maternal cells that infiltrate children's brains during pregnancy take on different jobs in the brain and may persist into old age.
Country diary: Breeding ferrets is a wonderfully chaotic business
Cranbrook, Kent: Right now the young are hellbent on seeking adventure, much to the dismay of their mothers
AMD Ryzen 7 7700X3D is exclusive to Newegg in US, $481 bundle includes B650E motherboard and 16GB DDR5 memory
AMD’s 8-core Zen 4 X3D processor is currently available only from Newegg in the US. A discounted AM5 bundle adds a B650E board and 16GB DDR5 for $480.98.
‘It’s not really about sports’: One parent on ending lawsuit against NH’s trans student athlete ban
Sara Tirrell, the mother of one of the teenagers who dropped her legal challenge against the state, spoke with NHPR about the decision and what the last two years have been like for her family.
Timothée Chalamet and David Beckham, Summer of Sports Kings, Meet at the World Cup
Grabbing a chat in the VIP box at the France vs Spain match, Timothée Chalamet and David Beckham’s game-day fits couldn’t be more different.
'Father, business owner' - Mother remembers son whose body was found near bridge
INDIAN RIVER COUNTY — Jody Thompson remembers the last phone call she had with her son James Thompson, a father and business owner whose body was found at a popular … Read More »
Worker at mental health facility sexually assaulted teen multiple times, warrant says
The mother said she had to report it to police.
Bringing relief to NC maternity deserts
Program won’t try to eliminate NC maternity deserts, but will find ways to ease burden on rural mothers needing obstetric healthcare.
Mother-son duo launches mobile businesses focused on food, entertainment
A local mother-and-son team is bringing a mix of catering, desserts, and interactive entertainment to events across Owensboro and the surrounding region through two new mobile businesses.
15-year-old sexually assaulted by employee at mental health facility, mother says
Police are looking for a man accused of sexually assaulting a 15-year-old patient.
Smith Entertainment Group appoints new chief communications officer
Julie Kehoe, who was comms head for SEG subsidiaries the Utah Jazz and Utah Mammoth, has retired.
CalFresh and Maternal and Infant Health in the Bay Area During the COVID Pandemic
This descriptive analysis shares insights about mothers and their infants in the Bay Area who were enrolled in CalFresh during the pandemic.
Melissa Gilbert discovers she has 3 older brothers: ‘The true story of our adoptions is a jaw dropper’
Former child star Melissa Gilbert, who was adopted at birth by comedian Paul Gilbert, discovers she has three older half-brothers on her birth mother’s side: ‘The true story of our adoptions is a jaw dropper.’
Sheila Lodge, Mother of Santa Barbara’s Political Matriarchy, Dies at Age 97
The city’s first woman in a succession of female mayors dedicated her life to public service.
Do you know where your birth certificate is? Journalist warns of new voting barriers
The rules of the midterms are being rewritten, from redistricting to campaign money. Mother Jones journalist Ari Berman explains why President Trump seems "obsessed with the mechanics of voting."
Small Business Spotlight: Business blooms beyond bouquets
BUSINESS: The Busy Bloom OWNERS: Amanda and Walter Adkins ADDRESS: 708 S. 17th St., Wilmington EMAIL: thebusybloomco@gmail.com WEBSITE: thebusybloomco.com PHONE NUMBER: (910) 742-0790 YEAR FOUNDED: 2024 NO. OF EMPLOYEES: 4 WHAT IS THE BUSY BLOOM? AMANDA ADKINS: “The Busy Bloom is a flower shop with a spin – a creative experience shop located in Wilmington’s Cargo District. Founded in 2024 by husband-and-wife team Amanda and Walter Adkins, we offer fresh flowers, botanical teas, a build-your-own bouquet bar, candle-making experiences, gifts, workshops, wedding florals and event services. Our mission is simple: to make flowers accessible, approachable and enjoyable for everyone – not just for special occasions.” WHY DID YOU START THE BUSINESS? AMANDA ADKINS: “The Busy Bloom was born from a lifelong connection to flowers and a desire to create meaningful experiences for people. After doing my own wedding florals and after years of working in healthcare management, I found myself returning to gardening and floral design as a creative outlet and source of healing. The loss of my mother-in-law, who always shared flowers from her garden, inspired me to pursue floristry full-time. My husband encouraged me and built a small flower cart for us to grow, and fast forward to now, two years later, it has grown into a community-centered business focused on bringing joy, connection and creativity through flowers.” WHAT KIND OF GROWTH ARE YOU HOPING FOR? AMANDA ADKINS: “We’re focused on sustainable growth that allows us to continue serving our community while expanding creative experiences. We hope to grow our wedding and event services, expand our educational workshops and creative programming and become a destination where people can gather, create and connect. We’re also passionate about creating opportunities that showcase floral design as an art form, such as our Fleur Couture fashion show and other community collaborations.” WHAT PAST EXPERIENCE HAVE YOU HAD WITH STARTING/WORKING IN BUSINESS? AMANDA ADKINS: “Before opening The Busy Bloom, I worked as a clinical manager in healthcare and spent years building leadership, operations and customer service skills. I’ve also worked in education and nonprofit programming, teaching people about nature and local ecosystems. Along the way, I designed flowers for weddings and events on the side, gradually turning a passion into a business. Walter has years of welding and construction experience, combined with entrepreneurship and a drive to own his own company. …The Busy Bloom has been a journey of combining creativity with entrepreneurship alongside my husband ... learning every step of the way.”
Randi Mahomes speaks at Ultimate Sports Parent Experience on South Plains
Patrick Mahomes' mother shares lessons on staying involved in kids' sports
Palantir has a hand in NIH's most ambitious health initiative
The defense tech firm's work with public health data has largely flown under the radar.
CaroMont Health Opens CaroMont Hematology & Oncology in Belmont
CaroMont Health has opened CaroMont Hematology & Oncology in Belmont, expanding access to cancer and blood disorder care across the region. Located in the CaroMont Health Medical Pavilion on the campus of CaroMont Regional Medical Center in Belmont, the practice offers physician visits, infusion therapy and laboratory services in one convenient location, along with comprehensive hematology and medical oncology care including chemotherapy, immunotherapy, targeted therapy, hormone therapy and survivorship support. The opening is part of CaroMont Health's $200 million investment in cancer care, the second largest investment in the health system's history, which will double its oncology capacity across the region.
Wolfgang Van Halen brings Mammoth’s ‘The End’ tour to Wooly’s
Wolfgang Van Halen, son of Eddie Van Halen, has established his own musical identity with his 2023 album “Mammoth II,” following his 2021 debut. His work has earned critical acclaim,
Post-disaster toll on mothers linked to worse child mental health
A UNMC study related to the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill shows that Louisiana moms’ losses were associated with worse mental health in their children.
Sudan’s maternity wards reopen, bringing hope amid post-war struggles
Sudan’s maternity wards reopen, bringing hope and safe deliveries to mothers navigating post-war economic hardships.
Moon school district, PIAA sued after students barred from sports following family’s move
A mother this week sued Moon Area School District and the Pennsylvania Interscholastic Athletic Association, alleging her constitutional rights were violated when district administrators barred her sons from playing school sports after the family moved there from the neighboring Sto-Rox district. The civil rights lawsuit, filed Wednesday in federal court
Samsung Galaxy Z Fold8, Fold8 Ultra, Flip8, Watch9, Watch Ultra 2 prices leak
The motherlode is here. Samsung is widely expected to unveil the Galaxy Z Fold8, Galaxy Z Fold8 Ultra, Galaxy Z Flip8, Galaxy Watch9, and Galaxy Watch...
Britney Spears' sons say mom was 'nervous' about their modeling debut
A mother's positive affirmation goes a long way, especially when it's coming from Britney Spears.
The 17-year-old beekeeper busy with his own bee business
Harry took up the hobby after discovering his grandmother's old bee equipment in his family's shed.
Trump's attack on trains taught me a lot about Americans
And spoke with those who want to invoke the 25th Amendment.
Mammoth Face Franchise-Altering Decision After Devils' Offer Sheet
Marshall Health Network first in West Virginia to offer histotripsy treatment for liver tumors
HUNTINGTON, W.Va. – Marshall Health Network–Cabell Huntington Hospital (CHH) is the first hospital in West Virginia to treat liver tumors using the Edison® Histotripsy System, giving patients access to an advanced treatment that targets tumors with focused sound waves instead of surgery, chemotherapy or radiation. The Edison Histotripsy System uses image-guided sonic beam therapy to precisely target […]
Intel Expected To Restart Supply Of 10th, 12th, 13th, And 14th Gen Processors In Mainland China
Intel will reportedly focus more on the previous-gen processors to fulfill the current demand in the PC market. Intel is Reportedly Restarting Supply of Last Four Generation of Processors as Motherboard Vendors Ramp Up DDR4 Platform Production Roughly a month ago, we reported that some vendors are now restarting the production of DDR4 platforms, i.e., DDR4-compatible motherboards. This is to ensure the market gets DDR4 motherboards in sufficient quantity, as expensive DDR5 memory has made it unfeasible to build DDR5 systems on a budget. More reports are surfacing confirming the same report, and Intel appears to have prepared accordingly. Related […]
Rep. Young Kim Introduces Healthy Mothers, Healthy Babies Act to Strengthen U.S. Leadership, Support American Jobs, and Help Families Globally
WASHINGTON, D.C. — Today, U.S. Representative Young Kim (CA-40) introduced the Healthy Mothers, Healthy Babies Act to deploy proven, American-made interventions that reduce maternal and child mortality around the globe while supporting U.S. national security and foreign policy interests. Each year, nearly 260,000 women die from preventable pregnancy-related complications. Evidence-based solutions like Multiple Micronutrient Supplement (MMS) prenatal vitamins,
Starmer to issue formal apology to mothers and children harmed by historic forced adoption policies
Between 1949 and 1976, an estimated 185,000 babies were taken from unmarried mothers and placed for adoption in England and Wales
Devils Sign Winger Riley Tufte to 1 Year, $850,000 Deal
In one of the more under the radar moves today, the Devils announced the signing of 28-year-old winger Riley Tufte to a one-year, one-way NHL contract. A link to the press release can be found here. A 6’6”, 245lb behemoth, Tufte has been one of the most prolific scorers in the AHL, finishing tied for […]
Apple’s iPhone 18 Pro Max eSIM Model To Pack A Mammoth 5,425mAh Battery, While Physical SIM Buyers Get Predictably Shortchanged On Battery Capacity
In keeping with the prevailing divulgatory trend, the latest tidbit has detailed the battery capacity within Apple's iPhone 18 Pro Max.
Here comes your last chance to catch this huge Modesto music show. When, where
It’s just one of the many entertainment options coming up in the Modesto and Mother Lode regions.
Brother of Calais Campbell charged with murder after mother's death
Applications for grants to aid businesses along Route 66 to open July 2
If you are a business along The Mother Road, a grant program is being set up to offer you aid.
The Utah Mammoth Have Found Their Goaltender of the Future
Records show prior mental health petition for man accused of killing grandmother in Farmington Hills
Records show a petition was filed over three years ago seeking court-ordered mental health treatment for the 34-year-old man accused of killing his grandmother inside the home they shared in Farmington Hills.
The Roberts court knocks down one of the last campaign finance rules
Another win for billionaires. Another loss for democracy.
NYC Health + Hospitals/Metropolitan and MetroPlusHealth Support New Mother of Triplets
New York, NY – NYC Health + Hospitals/Metropolitan, in partnership with MetroPlusHealth, today shared the story of Doris A. Lucio Lucio, an immigrant
New Utah Jazz, Mammoth specialty license plates unveiled by Smith Entertainment Group
New Utah Jazz and Utah Mammoth specialty license plates were unveiled Tuesday by Smith Entertainment Group.The Utah Jazz announced the redesigned specialty lice
Smith Entertainment Group unveils Utah Jazz, Mammoth license plates
New Utah Jazz and Utah Mammoth specialty license plates were unveiled Tuesday by Smith Entertainment Group.The Utah Jazz announced the redesigned specialty lice
New Utah Jazz, Mammoth specialty license plates unveiled by Smith Entertainment Group
New Utah Jazz and Utah Mammoth specialty license plates were unveiled Tuesday by Smith Entertainment Group.The Utah Jazz announced the redesigned specialty lice
The invasive fern that science misidentified for decades
Salvinia molesta can double its biomass in 36 hours. It spreads across ponds, lakes and slow-moving waterways in a smothering green mat, blocking sunlight, consuming oxygen and collapsing the ecosystems ...
11 Entertainment Brands Owned And Streamed By Disney
Disney is an entertainment behemoth that has been making its mark on pop culture for decades. Today, its wings spread wide to cover a range of streamers.
She and Her Mother Built an 8-Figure Business Around a Beloved Family Heirloom. Now, the Legacy Continues: ‘So Much Bigger Than Just a Product.’
Christina Livada and her late mother Beth Haller LaSala built a brand based on warmth and comfort.
Community Health Workers Learn Perinatal Outreach Approaches at UAMS Training
LITTLE ROCK — Twenty community health workers (CHWs) from across Arkansas recently gathered in Springdale with a shared goal: to build connections and learn how to better support mothers across the state. Hosted by the UAMS Institute for Community Health Innovation, the three-day Perinatal CHW Upskill Training provided interactive, hands-on…
Mammoth Structure Found in Deep Space Challenges Our Understanding of The Universe
What does it mean?
Nancy Guthrie demand letter’s authenticity questioned by sheriff
Pima County Sheriff Chris Nanos weighs in on a new demand letter in the Nancy Guthrie case, which claims to know who kidnapped the mother of 'Today' host Savannah Guthrie.
Leaked A20 Pro Image Hints at iPhone 18 Pro Performance Gains
An alleged image of the iPhone 18 Pro motherboard has leaked online, showing the A20 Pro chip will use a new packaging technology that should offer notable performance gains over the previous model. The leaked image, which has been shared by the accounts "WHYLAB" and "Ice Universe" on Weibo, appears to show the A20 Pro chip integrated into TSMC's new packaging architecture, known as Wafer-Level Multi-Chip Module (WMCM) technology.
Wisconsin moms on Medicaid now get 12 months of coverage
Wisconsin’s new law extends mothers’ Medicaid coverage for a full year after birth. Medical experts say it will save lives.
Just hopes agent is 'busy' after World Cup impact
Elijah Just hopes his agent is "busy at the moment" as the New Zealand midfielder hinted at a possible summer exit from Motherwell after impressing at the World Cup. Just only joined Motherwell from Danish club Horsens a year ago and is under contract until next summer, with the Scottish Premiership club having an option of extending that by a further year. "The World Cup has given me added belief and also motivation to keep pushing," Just told the NZ Herald.
I'm a stay-at-home mom of 2. My 4 side gigs help me pay off debt.
Lana Ng left her marketing job in 2023 to take care of her children. Now, her four side gigs help her not lose herself in motherhood.
The Presidential Prayer Team
Each day, we invite you to join us in prayer for our national leaders. As mandated by 1 Timothy 2:1-2, we encourage prayer for those in positions of authority.
Community baby shower in Landover aims to address disparities, promote healthier lifestyles
This weekend in Prince George’s County, people came together for a community baby shower aimed at promoting healthier lifestyles among Black and Brown families across the DMV. With a lot of energy and laughter in the room, hundreds of people gathered at Prince George’s Sports and Learning Complex in Landover. The free event offered support for expecting mothers and parents…
Gunnar gives back: O's shortstop surprises local kid with specialized cleats
BALTIMORE -- The story of 11-year-old Declan Lefevre’s youth baseball career is inspirational. When Declan was about 4 years old, a doctor noticed his legs were different lengths. And it wasn’t something he would grow out of, either, which is something his parents -- father Jeff Lefevre and mother Nichole
NHL Rumors: 3 Red Wings Who Could Be Traded Next
The Detroit Red Wings made a notable trade on Friday, as they traded top goalie prospect Sebastian Cossa to the Utah Mammoth in exchange for the 23rd overall pick of the NHL Entry Draft. The Red Wings then used that pick to select forward J.P. Hurlbert.Seeing Cossa get traded by the Red Wings is not […] The post NHL Rumors: 3 Red Wings Who Could Be Traded Next appeared first on HEAVY.
Apple A20 Pro motherboard leak hints at notable memory and packaging upgrades
A leaked package layout of Apple's A20 Pro hints at several notable upgrades for the iPhone 18 Pro series. The next-gen SoC is said to feature a wider 96-bit memory interface, a redesigned packaging approach for improved thermals, and a larger Neural Processing Unit (NPU).
The Science Behind Storms: Four ingredients that make thunderstorms
Here's Mother Nature's shopping lift to making storms form.
Vice President JD Vance talks faith and politics in Orange County
Vance largely talked about his grandmother’s influence at the sold-out event, which came on the heels of his new memoir, “Communion: Finding My Way Back to Faith.”
Making Our Own Luck
We are cross-posting a piece that former NIH official Kris Willis wrote for Macroscience. Kris is now the President and Founder of the Woodley Park Institute, for which I’m a board member. Picking winners or hedging bets? Federal science agencies have long wrestled with the question of how to ensure their billions of dollars of grants and contracts result in maximum benefits for Americans. On the surface, it might seem that a goal-oriented, interventionist style of management would be the best policy: prioritize our most pressing problems and distribute funding accordingly.This top-down strategy creates a unique hazard, though: bad choices can send resources in the wrong direction, resulting in slow progress that impedes the delivery of tangible benefits to citizens. Moreover, if decision makers pursue an applied advance when the underlying scientific principles remain poorly understood, they risk costly failures and a loss of support for the research enterprise at large. Examples include Nixon’s 1971 War on Cancer, undertaken on the premise that a cure could be achieved in less than a decade, the drive to build an operational commercial fusion plant by the mid-1990s, and the National Plan to Address Alzheimer’s Disease, which failed to produce the effective treatments and prevention strategies promised by 2025. The contrasting laissez-faire approach is to hedge your bets. If the path to an advance is impossible to predict, then the wisest choice might be to distribute funding to as widely as possible. The main risk of this strategy is that spreading funding thinly may limit the resources available to the most promising research, resulting in the same negative outcomes as the interventionist approach: limited support for the most promising topics, slow progress, and delayed returns. In reality, at science agencies like the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health, program managers navigate between these two extremes, setting some funds aside to target high-priority areas and using the rest to cover the widest possible range of meritorious proposals. This middle path seems like the most rational way to proceed, but it still requires making choices. How much should be set aside for high priority topics? What should those topics be? How should we define merit? Expert opinion can provide a helpful guide, but leading experts can have remarkably different opinions about what matters and what should be prioritized. Moreover, experts and administrators alike can be risk averse, giving an edge to high-profile, well-established concepts. What’s really needed is a data-driven framework to help guide decision-making, one that doesn’t simply repackage prestige or incumbency. Recognizing breakthroughs years in advance Many breakthroughs fail to attract funding or recognition at the earliest stages of development. Katalin Karikó, for example, spent years struggling to win grants for work on mRNA that would eventually win her and Drew Weissman a Nobel Prize. Similar stories can be told about Jim Allison’s groundbreaking studies leading to the development of cancer immunotherapy, Stan Pruisner’s demonstration that prions can self-replicate without DNA, or Robin Warren and Barry Marshall’s proof that Helicobacter pylori, not stress, causes ulcers. Yet at some point, the scientific community recognizes and responds to transformative breakthroughs like these. How does that change happen? And what if science funders could identify the areas that are on the cusp of a breakthrough? Those questions led my collaborators and me to study how scientists responded to past breakthroughs. Based on patterns in that data, we developed a means of predicting future breakthroughs, using biomedicine as a proof of concept. It’s worth taking a moment to describe how our approach works. Briefly, our prediction process begins by grouping the 18 million or so peer-reviewed papers in PubMed, the authoritative database of biomedical research, into roughly 50,000 unique topics. A small subset of these topics are so widely acclaimed as breakthroughs that they have been recognized with a major prize like a Nobel or a Lasker Award. We theorized that studying the development of these outliers over time, especially before they gained acclaim, was the key to identifying future instances of them. After defining topics, we chose 21 representative breakthroughs and asked what they looked like before they won prestigious prizes. To answer that question, we re-ran our topic-mapping algorithm repeatedly, winding back the clock one year each time, stringing together the years to follow the progress of each field as it grew and advanced. We found that in each case, the years leading up to a discovery followed a pattern: a burst of papers on a new, rapidly evolving topic, many of which quickly became influential. These characteristics—the percent of papers that are new, the percentage of papers that are brought in from other topics, and the influence of each individual paper—can all be measured separately for any given topic. Together, they act as a predictive signal that is detectable an average of five years before a transformative discovery is made, and up to thirty years before the discovery receives a major prize. Scanning the current research landscape for topics that display this signal allows us to predict what work will likely produce a future breakthrough. Each year we analyzed includes four or five signals, a number that appears to have remained constant across a twenty year time frame. In their classic work on the sociology of science, Bruno Latour and Steve Woolgar established that the desire to participate in a major discovery is an important motivator for scientists as they consider whether they should take up (or abandon) a research problem. Although further work is needed, the simplest explanation for our results is that this behavior is widespread enough to detect at scale. A foundational advance, or something like it, draws the attention of scientists and causes them to change the direction of their research. They vote with their feet, staking their own reputation and careers by publishing on and citing the new idea. That upswell of interest is the foundation of our breakthrough signal. What kind of research does our model identify as a breakthrough? After building a model based on the patterns in our 21 preselected breakthroughs, we tested it by identifying all early signals of discovery from 1994 through 1997. Of the 18 signals we found in that time period, 17 can be traced forward in time to a breakthrough. Examples include super-resolution fluorescence microscopy (see the image above), the directed evolution of proteins and enzymes (Chemistry Nobel, 2018), and sequencing the human genome (National Medal of Science, 2008). The discovery of the role of leptin signaling in obesity is a particularly interesting case study. Around 1950, scientists noticed the existence of a type of lab mouse that suffered from a unique inherited form of obesity. When given the freedom to choose their own diet, these mice ate more than normal and preferred food that was high in fat. Researchers had few clues as to why the animals overate; early experiments pointed to the existence of a soluble ob factor found circulating in the bloodstream that regulated appetite, but its identity was unknown. In 1994, Jeffrey Friedman and colleagues identified and sequenced the ob gene, noting that the protein it encoded appeared to fit the profile of a circulating factor. A year later, a trio of high-profile publications demonstrated that ob was a hormone that regulated body weight and fat deposition by regulating appetite. One of these was co-authored by Friedman, who christened it leptin from the ancient Greek word for thin. Using our model, the data from 1996 make it clear this advance would become a breakthrough. Scientists had flocked to study the biology of the new hormone, generating the flurry of new papers and citations required to produce a signal. One of these demonstrated that serum leptin concentrations reflected the amount of adipose tissue in the human body, providing clinical validation of the earlier mouse studies. Before the identification of leptin, scientists were unable to point to a specific molecule that controlled appetite and adiposity, so that it was impossible to rule out non-physiological causes of obesity; its characterization fundamentally changed our concept of weight gain. In 2010, Friedman and fellow pioneer Douglas Coleman were awarded a Lasker for the discovery. Our work also identifies breakthroughs in clinical practice and behavioral and social sciences, even though these areas are less likely to draw the attention of major prize committees. One example that falls into this category is the introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair, a minimally invasive surgical procedure for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm, a leading cause of death among Americans over the age of 65. Relative to the previous standard of care, it reduces in-hospital mortality by almost four-fold. In 2017, Timothy Chuter received the American College of Surgeons’ prestigious Jacobsen Innovation award for his multiple refinements to the technique. Another under-recognized breakthrough identified by our model is the development of standardized survey instruments to assess the quality of life for HIV+ patients. The antiretroviral cocktails introduced in the mid-1990s reduced AIDS mortality, but treatment came with serious side effects. The new evaluations showed that patients whose disease progressed had worse physical functioning than Americans with other chronic diseases, while those who were asymptomatic maintained a health-related quality of life on par with the overall US population. This evidence made it possible for patients and activists to argue that even in the absence of a total cure, and in spite of the side effects, alleviation of symptoms was a worthwhile priority for clinicians. My colleagues and I have failed to identify any significant recognition for the physicians and health policy experts who pioneered this advance, although in 2016, researchers called for the World Health Organization to set targets for good health-related quality of life as part of its framework to end the AIDS pandemic. From forecasting to funding How should science funders use our predictions? Any serious discussion of what we should do with this new capability needs to begin with an understanding of its limitations. We can’t (and shouldn’t) invest all of our resources in the small number of topics predicted to produce breakthroughs. Innovative new fields are born from existing ones; they rarely arise de novo. If funders don’t maintain a diverse portfolio, the breakthroughs of tomorrow will have no antecedents. Think of this as eating the seed corn, or killing the goose that lays the golden egg. There are also multiple goals of funding beyond basic scientific discovery, including translating discoveries into clinical practice, developing new technologies, supporting economic development, and training new scientists. The investments needed to accomplish these goals are likely different from those required to support emerging breakthroughs. Finally, we must be aware that we may not capture every instance of a breakthrough. The concept is fuzzy, and not every significant discovery is recognized with a major award. Further, breakthroughs are rare, meaning that our dataset is, by necessity, small. This makes formal estimates of accuracy challenging. Although our overall success rate appears to be high, any one signal may turn out to be a false positive. We found one apparent example: the development of the third generation COX-2 inhibitors, Vioxx and Celebrex, which were much celebrated in the early 2000s as effective but non-addictive pain relievers, meets all the algorithmic criteria of a breakthrough. Five years after it received FDA approval, researchers demonstrated that Vioxx was associated with serious cardiovascular complications, and the manufacturer voluntarily pulled the drug from the market. Celebrex remains available, although like other NSAIDs, it carries an FDA warning for increased cardiovascular risk. Decision makers who were overly focused on the breakthrough potential of this research might have wasted substantial resources nurturing an area that ultimately proved to be a failure—but so would those who relied on expert opinion at the time. That said, the potential benefits of funding the next mRNA vaccine or cancer immunotherapy years earlier than we might have are large. When we can’t assume the outcome of an action, it’s worth conducting an experiment. Can targeted support for areas that are poised to produce a breakthrough increase the return on scientific investment without cannibalizing future advances? With the necessary administrative infrastructure in place, conducting this experiment would be straightforward. First, identify all the breakthrough signals between 2018 and 2023, select half at random, and commit to a decade of investment. For biomedicine, a six year window should yield about 30 topics with the potential to produce a breakthrough. Providing strong support to half of these might be accomplished for $300 million a year. That’s roughly half of the recent annual budget of the NIH Common Fund or around 20% of the fiscal year 2025 budget for ARPA-H. After five years, then again at ten, compare to see which group — the one that was actively managed, or the control — produced more breakthroughs, and on what timescale. Although we used biomedicine as an example, the same experiment could just as well be run for physics, materials science, or any other discipline. Any attempt to undertake such an experiment should keep three points top of mind. First, we can predict the topic of future breakthroughs, but the people and vision for how to move the work forward are still important. In practice, this means success requires active program managers with the expertise to develop the science and the authority to do so, including by recruiting investigators. Second, we would be wise to learn from the failures of past attempts to fund transformative research. High among these are funding modestly repackaged work, confusing the genuinely novel with the merely unfamiliar, and relying too much on incumbent investigators. All of these risks can be mitigated by thoroughly and intelligently integrating high quality data into portfolio management. Finally, we need to have patience. Even with strong funding support, producing a breakthrough takes time. If supporting breakthroughs is the best way to nurture the birth of new fields, we also need to accurately describe and properly manage the other two stages, so that we invest wisely throughout the productive lifetime of ideas and divest once they reach the point of diminishing returns. We would benefit from more study of all of these phases, especially the transition from one to another. More research could answer questions like: When does a breakthrough become an established field? How do the availability of funding, the size and characteristics of the available workforce, and the accumulation of evidence that disagrees with prevailing models affect a field’s decline? Exactly how do old ideas give birth to new ones, and can we speed up the process? The more we understand about the dynamics of scientific progress, the better we can maximize the odds that our curiosity leads to results. I’d call that finding a way to make our own luck.
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