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Trump's Indiana revenge tour sparks an ad avalanche: From the Politics Desk
Plus, the Bernie Sanders lane is open in the 2028 Democratic presidential primary.
Democrats look for a foothold in Iowa as Vance visits to boost GOP candidate
Republican Donald Trump may have won the state by double digits in the last presidential election, but growing dissatisfaction with his leadership and rising costs from the Iran war could help set the stage for Democrats to make previously unattainable gains.
EDITORIAL: Normalization of misconduct in U.S. politics
President Donald J. Trump's 2016 presidential campaign propelled conversations regarding sexual assault into the national spotlight. A handful of women slowly began coming forward with allegations of unwanted advances and perverse comments over the course of the election cycle, and concerns were further solidified after a secret recording from a 2005 Hollywood Access tape was leaked. Trump had been caught on a hot mic stating he was able to touch women as he pleased, and due to his social status as a "star," they would let him do it. The New York Times published a series of interviews from individuals who had both witnessed and experienced his inappropriate behavior soon after.
Ronald Smothers, Times Reporter Who Covered Protest and Politics, Dies at 79
In a career that included 35 years at The New York Times, he chronicled the Rev. Jesse Jackson’s 1984 presidential run and the bombing at the 1996 Olympics in Atlanta.
Donald Trump says wife Melania 'hates' when he dances to 'the gay national anthem': 'It's not presidential'
Donald Trump revealed that his wife, Melania Trump, 'hates' when he dances to 'what's sometimes referred to as the gay national anthem': 'It's not presidential.'
Lower Burrell nets air conditioning and heating business at former Hillcrest Volkswagen
Mark Williamson is in the business of heating and cooling, but he says his company’s ethos is a bit more than that. MW Mechanical Services, which Williamson founded in New Kensington in 2022, installs and repairs residential and commercial air conditioning and heating systems across Soutwestern Pennsylvania. It also services
What’s changed about the 2028 Democratic presidential field? Kamala Harris
It’s too early to start really handicapping the 2028 presidential race, but some would-be candidates are already making serious moves.
RI House poised to vote to move presidential primary to Super Tuesday
Rhode Island lawmakers are set to vote on a bill to move the state's presidential primary to Super Tuesday in 2028.
Health care costs reach a breaking point
Embargoed until 5:00a.m. ET / 4:00am CT / 30, April 2026 Statement Highlights: New American Heart Association Presidential Advisory warns that U.S. health care affordability has reached a crisis point. Rising health care costs, driven largely by...
What the Royal State Dinner Guest List Says About Trump’s America
There were at least 10 American billionaires, six Fox News hosts, assorted presidential pals, no Democratic politicians and not so many British.
California dreaming is a political reality for all Americans
California’s political landscape is heating up with the race for governor, the fight for control of the U.S. House of Representatives, and the potential presidential race in 2028, with Gov. G…
Susan Hutson says farewell and other politics news
Plus, Mitch Landrieu says he's considering a presidential run.
Adieu, Élysée: the Macrons reflect on life after politics
As France’s succession race looms, the presidential couple start its farewell
Line of succession: Who was and was not at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner
CNN analyzed – through photos, videos and outreach to offices – who from the presidential line of succession was at Saturday’s event where the shooting incident occurred.
Trump fires independent board overseeing National Science Foundation
Members of the National Science Board received an email on Friday sent from the Presidential Personnel Office stating that their position was terminated.
2026 Presidential Ambassador Scholars recognized - UT Health San Antonio
2026 Presidential Ambassador Scholars recognized
Texas Tech QB Brendan Sorsby to enter gambling addiction program, sources say
Texas Tech QB Brendan Sorsby is checking into a residential treatment program for a gambling addiction, sources told ESPN.
Be part of the region’s real estate momentum
Special Promotion Four out of five of Business Report’s most-read stories focus on real estate—spanning commercial, residential, and industrial sectors. It’s a clear signal that our business community is actively seeking insight into the growth shaping the Capital Region. That’s why our June Real Estate issue remains one of Business Report’s most in-demand editions, spotlighting […]
Trump administration fires National Science Board members
The scientists serving on the National Science Board received letters from the Presidential Personnel Office Friday telling them they are fired.
Stephen Colbert Talks Post-‘Late Show’ Career — Move to CNN? Presidential Run?
The talk-show emcee has big ideas for his future, and we’re not just talking about his upcoming ‘Lord of the Rings’ film.
Potential 2028 presidential candidates gather in L.A. for Democratic fundraiser
Democratic governors, some eyeing 2028 presidential bids, gathered in Los Angeles for a big-dollar party fundraiser.
White House tells court it’s preserving presidential records even though DOJ said law is unconstitutional
White House staff are still following the “preservation” mandates of the Presidential Records Act, the Justice Department told a federal court as it pushes back on a new lawsuit challenging the Trump administration’s disavowal of a Watergate-era documents law.
Fed chair nominee on 2020 election winner: 'Keep politics out of monetary policy'
Federal Reserve chairman nominee Kevin Warsh said Tuesday when asked who won the 2020 presidential election, "Keep politics out of monetary policy."
Fed chair nominee on 2020 election winner: 'Keep politics out of monetary policy'
Federal Reserve chairman nominee Kevin Warsh said Tuesday when asked who won the 2020 presidential election, "Keep politics out of monetary policy."
Fed chair nominee on 2020 election winner: 'Keep politics out of monetary policy'
Federal Reserve chairman nominee Kevin Warsh said Tuesday when asked who won the 2020 presidential election, "Keep politics out of monetary policy."
Mining investors jittery about politics in Peru as vote count drags on, analysts say
Investors in Peru's copper and gold mines are worried about the country's presidential vote count that has been slowed by allegations of irregularities, yet analysts expect the sector to weather the election with limited direct impact.
Supreme Court’s high-stakes term could reshape presidential power, immigration, voting rights
The Supreme Court’s term is packed — birthright citizenship, presidential removals, voting rules, transgender sports and more. Constitutional law expert Rod Sullivan joins News4JAX anchor Bruce Hamilton on this week’s episode of Politics & Power to discuss what’s at stake and why it matters to you.
The Death of Public Health
During the recent measles outbreak, the largest in more than 30 years, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. refused to clearly recommend the measles vaccine, saying instead that it was a “personal decision,” and that parents should “do their own research.” Similarly, during her recent confirmation hearing for United States Surgeon General, Casey Means was questioned by Senator William Cassidy (R, La). “You’re the nation’s doctor,” said Cassidy. “Would you encourage [a mother] to have her child vaccinated!” “I’m not an individual’s doctor,” Means said. “And every individual needs to talk to their doctor before putting a medication in their body.” In June 2025, Marty Makary, Commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), said that COVID vaccines for pregnant women should be a “personal choice”, even though every other country in the world recommended the COVID vaccine during pregnancy due to a higher risk for severe disease. It doesn’t end there. On January 5, 2026, RFK Jr. reduced the number of routinely recommended vaccines from 18 to 10. For vaccines that protected against influenza, COVID, and rotavirus, parents were urged to speak with their doctors—to make an individual choice. (On March 16, 2026, in a ruling by a federal court in Boston, RFK Jr.’s revised schedule was invalidated.) What’s happening? Why are public health officials moving away from making recommendations for the public? The origin of this change might be rooted in the first two years of the COVID pandemic. In 2020, during the first year on the pandemic, we didn’t have anything to stop a virus that was killing hundreds of people a day and could be spread asymptomatically. We didn’t have antivirals until October, monoclonal antibodies until November, and vaccines until December. All we could do was restrict travel, close businesses, shutter schools, and mask, isolate, quarantine, test, and social distance. During the second year of the pandemic, when we had vaccines to prevent COVID, people couldn’t go anywhere without their vaccine cards. They couldn’t go to their favorite bar or restaurant or sporting event or place of worship without proof of vaccination. Some people were fired from their jobs for refusing to get vaccinated. For many, this was seen as massive government overreach and energized what has been called the “medical freedom movement.” Indeed, a headline in the New York Times declared, “How Health Freedom Became a Winning Rally Cry.” As expressed in the comments of RFK Jr., Casey Means, and Marty Makary, the medical freedom movement focuses on the individual not the community—the opposite of public health. In an article titled “Ethics and Social Value Judgments in Public Health,” ethicists from Yale University distinguished public health from medical freedom. “Public health policies,” they wrote, “are population oriented. Because individual health affects the health of others, public health measures regulate individual behavior to achieve population health goals. All raise questions about how individual autonomy and freedom should be balanced against public health interests…which respects individuals’ sovereignty over their bodies and actions as long as their actions do not harm others.” The medical freedom movement fails to recognize that it often limits the freedom of others. For example, a parent who is afraid to send a child to school where many of the students are unvaccinated. Or immune compromised children who depend on those around them to for protection. The question then becomes “Freedom for whom?” Is it your right, in the name of medical freedom, to catch and transmit a potentially fatal infection—and in so doing, take away the freedom of others? In Four Essays on Liberty, Isaiah Berlin sums it up best. “Liberty for the wolves,” he wrote, “is death to the lambs.” Thanks for reading Beyond the Noise! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work. Subscribe
Why Democrats with 2028 hopes are calling Lina Khan – and what she’s telling them about remaking the economy
Lina Khan is getting constant calls from Democrats, many of them thinking about presidential runs, to sound out problems and workshop potential solutions. That’s a shift from when she was Federal Trade Commission chair and some party leaders avoided meetings or events with her. Khan hasn’t changed so much as the world around her has. Many Americans are furious about rising costs, affordability, technological changes, and soaring profits for the rich. And President Donald Trump has maximized the levers of federal power in ways that were once considered off-limits in both parties. What Khan has in mind for the next Democrat in the White House isn’t a 1,000-page blueprint like the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025. It’s more of an overall strategy rooted in her specialty: excavating long-forgotten laws already on the books, then finding ways to apply them to 21st century companies.
Le Pen, Bardella offer to slash red tape in overture to business leaders
French far-right leaders are on a mission to woo the business community ahead of the 2027 presidential election.
Obsession with primaries takes hold in French politics a year out from presidential race
On both left and right, talk of primaries continues to stall amid logistical challenges, personal rivalries and deeper strategic voids that experts say traditional parties have yet to confront.
Potential 2028 Democrats Audition in Michigan,With a Focus on Trump
Former Vice President Kamala Harris, Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey and Gov. Andy Beshear of Kentucky spoke at a gathering of party insiders in Detroit, fueling presidential speculation.
Inside the Supreme Court’s Risky New Way of Doing Business
Secret memos obtained by The New York Times illuminate the origins of the court’s now-routine “shadow docket” rulings on presidential power.
Newsom PAC bought thousands of memoir copies about his hardships, juicing sales
Campaign finance filings reveal Gavin Newsom's PAC bought 67,000 copies of his memoir for over $1.5 million amid his 2024 presidential positioning.
4 takeaways from the new campaign finance filings: From the Politics Desk
Plus, why the 2028 presidential primaries will likely be jam-packed with candidates.
Presidential Downballot Losses: An Updated History and a Look Ahead to Trump’s Second Term
Since World War II, presidents have consistently presided over losses for their party in down-ballot offices—in the Senate, the House, governorships and state legislatures.
In Charlotte, Kamala Harris calls out Trump’s ‘obviously wrong’ Pope Leo post
The former vice president and presidential candidate was back in Charlotte Tuesday night promoting her campaign memoir.
The political power of Latin America's first ladies
First ladies in Latin America are more than ceremonial figures. They influence public policy, advance political careers, and build power within the core of the executive branch – without a formal mandate, or accountability. Carolina Guerrero Valencia shows why ignoring them means misreading presidential power itself
Historians suing Trump administration say National Archives won’t commit to preserving presidential records during lawsuit
The historians who are suing over the Trump administration’s eschewal of a Watergate-era records retention law for presidential documents said Tuesday that the National Archives won’t agree not to destroy those records while their case is litigated.
Spanberger's 'unconstitutional' push to redefine presidential elections makes voters 'NULL AND VOID': critics
Virginia joins the national popular vote compact as Gov. Spanberger signs bill awarding electoral votes to the national popular vote winner.
JD Vance Would Make a Horrible Presidential Candidate
He’s unpopular and unlikable. No amount of Vancewashing in the news is going to change that.
REV unveils flagship service for residential and business customers
Telecommunications provider REV has launched REV Fiber, its flagship brand for fiber internet services, as the company accelerates network expansion across south Louisiana. REV will remain the … Already an INSIDER? Sign in. Already an INSIDER? Sign in
From War Hero to Politics, Zelenskiy’s Top Aide Steps out of the Shadows
Kyrylo Budanov was taken from military intelligence to run Ukraine’s presidential office. It’s a political post that has Kyiv powerbrokers speculating over his future career path.
Vance had two high-profile opportunities to prove himself. Both fell flat
In the latter half of 2025, Vice President JD Vance’s future as the next Republican presidential nominee was looking fairly promising. It’s been a series of unfortunate events since then.
Democrat-Leaning Plan Takes Aim At Health Insurers With Proposed New Regulations
Healthcare initiatives being proposed like Patients' Bill of Rights offer a roadmap for Democrats’ priorities, with midterms looming and a presidential election in 2028.
Building lots, commercial properties: See 28 latest business, apartment, land sales ($38K to $3.55M)
See a list of property sales in Onondaga County other than residential homes.
Fractured politics, security fears shape Peru’s presidential election
Despite cycling through 8 presidents in 10 years, Peru remains Andean economic outlier | Anadolu
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
Peru holds presidential election amid a decade of political tumult
In the span of a decade, Peru has seen nine presidents come and go. How has that affected this year's presidential race?
Possible Democratic 2028 Candidates Are Already Fighting for Black Voters’ Support
Possible presidential candidates are already courting a crucial Democratic constituency.
Potential Democratic 2028 Candidates Condemn Trump’s ‘War of Choice’ in Iran
At a convention in New York, several Democrats mulling presidential bids rallied around opposition to President Trump’s decision to attack Iran.
'I am thinking about it,' Kamala Harris says of 2028 presidential bid
Former Vice President Kamala Harris says she’s actively considering another presidential bid | 100.1 FM and AM 1020 KDKA
Developer seeks demolition of New Haven's Sports Haven
A plan released for the city's Long Wharf section calls for a mixed use of residential and commercial uses for the former Sports Haven betting parlor.
Possible presidential candidate rallies Dems in Cincinnati with Pureval
Michigan Sen. Elissa Slotkin and Cincinnati Mayor Aftab Pureval discussed broadening the Democratic Party's appeal in the Midwest.
In this era of political violence, candidate security costs are higher, new report says
Security spending for congressional and presidential campaigns has jumped fivefold over the past decade as an increasingly hostile political environment has led to escalating threats against public officials, ranging from doxing to assassination plots, according to a report released Thursday.
‘We need new blood’: Texas voters look for leadership changes, fresh faces this election year
Some vocal Texas voters say they want to get rid of politicians who've served the state for decades. Much of that sentiment can be boiled down to a preference for younger candidates with new energy — or even older ones who buck long-held status quo.
'We got our butts kicked.' Republicans rattled by Democratic momentum ahead of midterms
Simmering discontent could boomerang on Republicans just two years after Trump harnessed voters' anger with his comeback presidential campaign.
WATCH: Democratic presidential prospects flock to Al Sharpton's conference in New York
The Democratic Party's most ambitious politicians are courting African American activists in New York this week as the party's unofficial 2028 presidential nomination contest takes shape at an annual conference led by Rev. Al Sharpton.
A record-breaking field: What to expect from Peru’s presidential election?
Crime and corruption are top issues for voters as the country struggles to cope with persistent political instability.
David Jolly to speak at National Action Network Convention, punctuating national momentum for Dems
Jolly is part of a slate of speakers that includes possible 2028 presidential candidates.
Georgia, Wisconsin Elections Show Declining Appetite for Republican Candidates
A Republican won Marjorie Taylor Greene’s seat, but Democrats shifted the district 25 points to the left since the 2024 presidential race. Conservative candidates lost in Wisconsin, too.
Democrats lost in Marjorie Taylor Greene’s old district. They still had one of their best election nights in recent memory
At this point, it’s not really news that Democrats are doing very well in special elections and other races held since the 2024 presidential contest. Their recent track record is abundantly clear. But even by their recent standards, Tuesday was a very good night – one of their best of the Trump era, in fact.
Supreme Court clears path to wipe Bannon conviction
The former presidential adviser was convicted of defying a congressional subpoena
With the Easter Bunny at his side, Trump won’t stop talking about Iran
The White House Easter Egg Roll has evolved with the times, weathering wars and pandemics. And on Monday, it became the site of multiple presidential gaggles as President Donald Trump fielded questions about the war with Iran.
Politics Unplugged (Full Episode) April 5, 2026
This week on Politics Unplugged, State Rep. Alexander Kolodin explains why he is running for the Republican nomination for Secretary of State. Then, consultants Marcus Dell’Artino and Adam Kinsey break down the latest Presidential approval polls and the candidates for governor debating whether to eat a taco on camera.
Egypt raises electricity prices for higher-use households, businesses from April
Egypt raised electricity prices for higher-use residential consumers and commercial users starting in April, the electricity ministry said in a statement on Saturday, citing a severe global energy crisis linked to the war in the Gulf region.
Multiple departments respond to fire at Boardman business
Multiple departments responded to a fire at a business in the Presidential Square Shopping Center Saturday morning.
Trump’s DOJ tells Trump he can hold onto government docs when he leaves office, contrary to Watergate-era law
A new memo from the Justice Department says President Donald Trump no longer has to follow a Watergate-era law barring him from holding on to presidential records when he leaves office.
If Trump Attends Oral Arguments, It Would Be a Presidential First
The president previously mused about attending the Supreme Court’s arguments over his sweeping tariffs, but ultimately did not make an appearance.
Vance and Rubio's differing postures on Iran war highlight their challenges ahead of 2028 election
Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice President JD Vance are both seen as the Republican Party’s strongest potential candidates in the next presidential election, but the Iran war could prove to be a political millstone for them
The Presidential Prayer Team
Each day, we invite you to join us in prayer for our national leaders. As mandated by 1 Timothy 2:1-2, we encourage prayer for those in positions of authority.
Trump shares renderings of a towering presidential library
President Donald Trump on Monday shared renderings of what his future presidential library could look like, offering a look into how the planned Florida-based center might eventually commemorate him.
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Glyphosate: A story of science, risk, and nuance
In the summer of 2014, a California groundskeeper named Dewayne Johnson started noticing patches of raw, weeping skin spreading across his body. He had spent years applying Roundup, Monsanto’s glyphosate-based herbicide, for a school district, sometimes drenched in it when equipment malfunctioned. By 2014, he had a diagnosis: non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma. In 2018, a jury awarded him $289 million in damages, later reduced on appeal. Tens of thousands of lawsuits followed. The story hasn’t quieted down. It’s all over the internet, swinging between “this will kill you, buy organic” and “relax, you’re fear-mongering.” Some of that recent chatter stems from an Executive Order protecting glyphosate and its production, which set off intense infighting within the MAHA movement. Some of it reflects a deeper truth: Americans genuinely care about harmful chemicals in their environment (see poll below). And the conversation isn’t going anywhere, with a Supreme Court case involving Monsanto set for this April. Glyphosate (the active ingredient in Roundup) is one of the most widely used herbicides in the world. But does glyphosate cause cancer? And how much exposure is actually risky? With so much mistrust in institutions and corporations (and some genuine conflicts of interest), making sense of the actual scientific evidence is genuinely hard. Here is a translation of what the scientific evidence actually says. Does glyphosate cause harm? Glyphosate is an herbicide that kills most plants it contacts rather than targeting specific species. It works by blocking an enzyme pathway (EPSPS) that plants and many microorganisms need to produce essential amino acids. Without those amino acids, the plant can’t grow and dies. Glyphosate was first developed by Monsanto in the 1970s and became ubiquitous after the company introduced “Roundup Ready” crops in the 1990s. In 2024, Bayer removed glyphosate from residential Roundup-branded products due to litigation pressure. But today it is still the most widely used herbicide in the world. Farmers also discovered they could spray it directly on crops like oats, lentils, beans, and peas just before harvest to dry them out faster and make harvesting easier. Because of its widespread use, it’s obviously really important to understand if it’s harmful to humans. The key principle: The dose makes the poison The most important concept in toxicology is that “the dose makes the poison.” Sixteenth-century physician Paracelsus articulated what remains the foundational principle of toxicology: sola dosis facit venenum. Water will kill you if you drink enough of it. Aspirin saves lives at 81 milligrams and causes internal bleeding at higher chronic doses. So, at what dose is glyphosate poisonous? The LD50 in rats (the dose that kills half the test animals) is around 5,600 mg/kg body weight. Table salt is roughly 3,000 mg/kg. By that classic measure, glyphosate is less acutely toxic than salt. But some people are exposed to a lot of glyphosate through their work. And among the general public, there are many questions about low-dose, cumulative exposure from multiple sources over long periods. Does glyphosate cause health problems? Cancer Correlation maps are striking, with one analysis finding that 60% of counties that spray the most glyphosate have non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma rates above the national average. But correlation alone doesn’t establish cause, which is why animal and human studies matter. In animals: Rat studies are typically what most fear is rooted in, but most people don’t know the study details on the dosage given to rats. A pooled analysis of the 13 most rigorous rat studies found evidence that very high doses, around 55,000 times greater than typical food residue exposure, can cause certain cancers. In humans: One of the strongest studies followed 55,000 herbicide users over 20 years and found no overall increased cancer risk. There was one signal: among those with the highest use, rates of acute myeloid leukemia (AML) appeared elevated. A broader meta-analysis of 18 human studies also found no overall cancer risk, though a separate meta-analysis focused specifically on non-Hodgkin lymphoma found that people with high cumulative glyphosate exposure faced a 41% higher relative risk compared to those with low or no exposure. These human studies are observational studies (randomized controlled trials would be unethical), and meta-analyses are only as reliable as the studies they pool. But the story seems consistent: at very high exposure levels, there may be some cancer risk. But that’s about as far as the science currently takes us. Emerging research: gut and reproductive health Gut: Because glyphosate targets a pathway that exists in some gut bacteria, scientists have questioned whether it could affect the microbiome. In mice, a 2023 University of Iowa study found that glyphosate altered gut bacterial composition and raised markers of intestinal inflammation. A 2024 systematic review found similar patterns: disrupted gut bacteria and problems with the mucus layer that protects the intestinal wall in mice. Whether this translates to humans is an open question. The human gut is highly variable and resistant, and we don't yet have strong studies confirming the same effects in people. Reproductive health: Animal studies have found that glyphosate-based herbicides can interfere with reproductive hormones, including disrupting egg cell development in mice and reducing the number of eggs available in sheep’s ovaries. However, the doses used in these experiments were high, so it’s not yet clear whether the same effects would occur in humans. On the human side, a 2021 pilot study led by Mount Sinai researchers tested urine samples from pregnant women across the U.S. and found glyphosate in 95% of them. The study also found a possible connection between higher glyphosate exposure during pregnancy and a subtle physical difference measured in female newborns. That said, some connections weren’t statistically reliable and this was a small study. The researchers themselves said more and larger studies are needed before drawing firm conclusions. What do regulators say about glyphosate safety? In 2015, the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), part of the World Health Organization, classified glyphosate as "probably carcinogenic to humans" (Group 2A). The classification is worth taking seriously. But, there’s an important distinction: IARC classifies hazard, meaning the potential to cause harm under some conditions. It does not assess risk, which accounts for actual exposure levels and the real-world probability of harm. The U.S. EPA, the European Food Safety Authority, Health Canada, and regulatory agencies in Australia and Japan have all concluded that glyphosate is “unlikely to be carcinogenic to humans” at realistic exposure levels. They’re asking a different question: given how much of this people actually encounter, what is the probability of harm? Your actual exposure is what determines your actual risk. What does glyphosate mean for your daily life? At the grocery store: Food residues are small. The EPA’s acceptable daily intake is 1.75 mg/kg of body weight per day. To hit that threshold from oatmeal alone, a 150-pound adult would need to eat roughly 50 pounds of oats every day. But this calculation addresses only one pathway (food), and we don’t yet have robust tools to measure people’s actual total exposure. If reducing exposure matters to you, organic certification prohibits synthetic herbicides, and organic oat products generally test at lower or undetectable levels. Either way, a diet rich in whole grains, conventional or organic, is far better for your health than one that omits them out of fear of residues. On the farm: Occupational exposure is orders of magnitude higher than consumer exposure. Farmers and farm workers who mix, load, and apply glyphosate-based herbicides, especially without protective equipment, face meaningfully different risk profiles. Proper PPE isn’t optional. Integrated weed management strategies that rotate chemical modes of action are also worth taking seriously, both for health and for long-term effectiveness. If you live near a farm: Spray drift is real. Concentrations near field edges can spike during and after application, particularly on windy days. This is an area where I think public health could really step up and empower rural communities with buffer zones, rather than placing the onus on individuals. But for now, knowing your local agricultural calendar and keeping windows closed during application are the first steps. Bottom line Dewayne Johnson was exposed to glyphosate at levels most people will never encounter, and a jury decided he deserved compensation. That outcome is not evidence that the oatmeal in your pantry is dangerous. But it is a reminder that the dose, the context, and the person doing the exposing all matter enormously. Glyphosate is a chemical tool with benefits, trade-offs, and genuine open scientific questions. Learning to hold that complexity without collapsing into panic or dismissal is, honestly, one of the most useful and hardest things to do in navigating modern health science. Love, YLE Your Local Epidemiologist (YLE) is founded and operated by Dr. Katelyn Jetelina, MPH PhD—an epidemiologist, wife, and mom of two little girls. Hannah Totte, MPH, is an epidemiologist and YLE Community Manager. YLE reaches more than 425,000 people in over 132 countries with one goal: “Translate” the ever-evolving public health science so that people will be well-equipped to make evidence-based decisions. This newsletter is free to everyone, thanks to the generous support of fellow YLE community members. To support the effort, subscribe or upgrade below: Subscribe
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