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Sen. Dave McCormick asks Pennsylvania to embrace AI during Harrisburg luncheon
HARRISBURG — U.S. Sen. Dave McCormick wants Pennsylvania at the forefront of the artificial intelligence boom happening across the United States.
Rory McIlroy, Shane Lowry Both Whine About PGA Championship Setup
Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry were both unhappy with the conditions at the 2026 PGA Championship. McIlroy, who has won back-to-back Masters championships, sounded off on the conditions at the Pennsylvania course over the weekend. "I think a bunched leaderboard like this, I think it's a sign of a ...
Heart health screenings deliver lifesaving impact
Penn State Health helps bring heart health care to people who might not otherwise have access by offering free cardiovascular screenings at community organizations and events across central Pennsylvania.
Penn State Health unifies psychiatric and behavioral health services to expand access across central Pennsylvania
Penn State Health has consolidated all psychiatric and behavioral health services under a single identity, integrating former Pennsylvania Psychiatric Institute inpatient and outpatient services to…
AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Pennsylvania’s primaries
Pennsylvania Democrats will pick nominees to unseat a trio of vulnerable Republican members of Congress in a state primary on Tuesday.
The new political era of insurgent candidates is roiling the Pennsylvania primary
A decade after Donald Trump upended the Republican Party by attacking the GOP establishment in his first presidential campaign, the political outsiders...
Rep. Chris Deluzio targets rising youth sports costs in Let Kids Play Act
'Youth sports should not be a luxury item,' Deluzio said.
Rep. Chris Deluzio targets rising youth sports costs in Let Kids Play Act
'Youth sports should not be a luxury item,' Deluzio said.
This Pennsylvania fundraising walk is bringing thousands of dollars to free mental health programs
Workers in Penn State Health operating rooms raised alarms about safety, sterilization
This story was produced by the State College regional bureau of Spotlight PA, an independent, nonpartisan newsroom dedicated to investigative and public-service journalism for Pennsylvania. Si…
The ex-weatherman who wants more local TV stars in Congress
Local TV stars from Miami to Pennsylvania are running for office. A former weatherman hopes breaking news experience will help fix a stalled Congress.
John Fetterman casts deciding vote against limiting Trump's war in Iran
The Pennsylvania Democrat has voted repeatedly to support the war. With a few Republicans deflecting, it was now the first time his vote was decisive.
Canadian-based company ceases operations; dozens of people laid off in Pennsylvania
The company said its financial position has worsened significantly since 2021, and that it had faced additional pressure since 2024 due to the imposition of tariffs by the U.S. government, post-pandemic reductions in consumer demand, increased competition from offshore competitors, and ongoing cash constraints.
IUP Athletics Announces Multi-Year Partnership With adidas, BSN SPORTS
INDIANA, Pa. — Indiana University of Pennsylvania (IUP) Athletics, adidas and BSN SPORTS have announced a multi-year partnership that will make BSN SPORTS the exclusive supplier of adidas uniforms, apparel, footwear, accessories and equipment provider for Crimson Hawks athletics.
Political consultant weighs in on Pennsylvania 3rd Congressional District primary
Pa. 7th Congressional District race could help decide control of U.S. House
Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District race could help decide who has control of the U.S. House.
Fetterman weighs in after PA Supreme Court justice apparently splits from Democratic Party over antisemitism
Sen. John Fetterman responds after Pennsylvania Supreme Court Justice David Wecht sounds alarm about antisemitism in the Democratic Party.
LHU student revolutionizing stream restoration with rock-powered science
Natalie Brown kneels beside a humming wet lab setup at Commonwealth University-Lock Haven, calipers in hand, measuring the promise of Pennsylvania’s streams. The master’s candidate in biology regularly tests how everyday rocks could supercharge freshwater mussel recovery in the West Branch Susquehanna River, blending her geology roots with cutting-edge experiments. Her work is directly supporting […]
Business Notes: 128 graduate from Apprentice School; 196 books donated to CHKD
The Newport News Shipbuilding Apprentice School recently celebrated the graduation of 128 people, Sylvan Learning of North Suffolk has reopened at a new location and more business news.
Republicans who denied 2020 election results could be governors next year
Electing such candidates for governor would give deniers key oversight of the 2028 presidential election in swing states like Arizona, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
Sen. John Fetterman — again — says he won’t leave the Democratic Party in late-night interview
Pennsylvania Sen. John Fetterman said he's a "committed Democrat" during a late-night talk show interview Friday. His comments followed renewed speculation of a party switch.
Annenberg Health and Science Survey Wins AAPOR’s Policy Impact Award | The Annenberg Public Policy Center of the University of Pennsylvania
The Annenberg Public Policy Center's ASAPH survey has won the American Association for Public Opinion Research’s 2026 Policy Impact Award.
America’s oldest chartered hospital is now a Philly museum. Its lead curator wants you to have a ‘fabulous experience’
To mark Pennsylvania Hospital’s 275th anniversary, archivist Stacey Peeples is leading its transition into a museum for the public, open May 8.
Fetterman Says He Has ‘No Plans’ to Leave the Democratic Party
In an opinion piece in The Washington Post, the Pennsylvania senator wrote that while he was “at odds” with the party’s approach to some issues, his values had not changed.
Chief Justice Roberts: Supreme Court not political; decisions are based on law
Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts avoided mentioning any specific rulings at a conference this week in Hershey, Pennsylvania, but stressed that the court is “simply not part of the political process.” He said the court’s formal, writ…
Annual Science Expo Winners Announced — Central Catholic High School
Central Catholic announced the winning projects from its annual Science Expo, which took place April 20. More than 50 Honors Biology and Chemistry students presented their research projects to faculty, staff, and students, and 20 junior high students from OLPH, St. Joseph's Sylvania, and S
Pitt’s new quantum lab will advance innovation across the region
The Western Pennsylvania Quantum Information Core represents more than a decade of Pitt’s commitment to partnerships in quantum science and industry commercialization.
Pennsylvania seeks stricter oversight on prediction markets, youth sports betting
These days, you can literally place a bet on anything. But that is drawing closer scrutiny from gambling regulators.Casinos, like the new Happy Valley Casino in
Pennsylvania community health centers request $5M for ‘crumbling’ safety net backbone
Organizations under a coalition of health centers assist more than 1 million patients across 450-plus centers each year.
Audrey Beth Davis, Longtime Entertainment Publicist, Dies at 82
Audrey Beth Davis, a retired longtime entertainment publicist, died of natural causes on May 1 in Pennsylvania. She was 82. Davis was born on October 17, 1943, in Brooklyn, N.Y. and graduated from Bro...
Health care gaps persist for Black and Hispanic Pennsylvanians
A new report finds disparities in access, cost and outcomes across racial groups in Pennsylvania.
AeroFarms avoids shutdown, says it will be a ‘stronger, more stable business’
The indoor farming company in Pittsylvania County said in late March that it was working to sell its business.
BIG AMBITIONS: LHU undergrad’s research bridges the gap between student science, large-scale conservation in Susquehanna watershed
In a lab where streams run indoors and ecosystems are built by hand, Emily Gonzalez is doing more than collecting data. She’s helping answer questions that could shape the future of Pennsylvania’s waterways — and directly support large-scale restoration efforts already underway in the West Branch of the Susquehanna River. Gonzalez, a biomedical sciences major […]
Inside the Quiet Republican Effort to Flip Court Fetterman
As the Pennsylvania Democrat increasingly is isolated within his own party, Republicans are quietly trying to win him over.
Audrey Beth Davis Dead: Entertainment Publicist Was 82
Davis died Friday in Pennsylvania from natural causes surrounded by her family, friends and caregivers.
CU-Lock Haven undergraduate’s research bridges gap between student science and large-scale conservation
LOCK HAVEN — In a lab where streams run indoors and ecosystems are built by hand, Emily Gonzalez, of Wilkes-Barre, is doing more than collecting data. She’s helping answer questions that could shape the future of Pennsylvania’s waterways — and directly support large-scale restoration efforts already underway in the West Branch of the Susquehanna River. […]
DCED secretary tours Lewistown ahead of Small Business Week
LEWISTOWN — From storefront to storefront, Pennsylvania Department of Community and Economic Development Secretary Rick Siger spent Friday visiting Lewistown businesses, using the tour to spotlight small business growth and downtown revitalization efforts. Stops on the tour included Monument Square Center, Moon Dragon game store, Miller Cinemas and Kickin’ Cater as part of Pennsylvania Small […]
Lower Burrell nets air conditioning and heating business at former Hillcrest Volkswagen
Mark Williamson is in the business of heating and cooling, but he says his company’s ethos is a bit more than that. MW Mechanical Services, which Williamson founded in New Kensington in 2022, installs and repairs residential and commercial air conditioning and heating systems across Soutwestern Pennsylvania. It also services
Pa. treasurer Stacy Garrity talks race for Pennsylvania governor
In the latest episode of Battleground Politics, Lauren Mayk speaks with Republican gubernatorial candidate Stacy Garrity.
Millions allocated to support pregnant women in Pennsylvania for better health outcomes
Funds combined with work of various coalitions across the Commonwealth are expanding care and access to care.
Boston Celtics at Philadelphia 76ers odds, picks and predictions
The Boston Celtics face the Philadelphia 76ers Thursday in Game 6 of a first-round playoff series from Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Tip is at 8 p.m. ET
Boston Celtics at Philadelphia 76ers odds, picks and predictions
The Boston Celtics face the Philadelphia 76ers Thursday in Game 6 of a first-round playoff series from Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Tip is at 8 p.m. ET
‘80s legends and Grammy-nominated artists join America 250 celebrations in Pa.
Pennsylvania's free America's 250th birthday celebration expands its lineup with Grammy-nominated artists across Hershey, Wilkes-Barre, and Pittsburgh venues
Flyers take the Battle of Pennsylvania
Philadelphia beat Pittsburgh in a thriller to advance to Round 2 of the NHL Playoffs.
Taylor Swift to be inducted into the Central Pennsylvania Music Hall of Fame
Next year, pop superstar Taylor Swift will be inducted into the Central Pennsylvania Music Hall of Fame.
Private, religious and charter sports teams may play in own playoffs in Pennsylvania
A voters guide to the 2026 primary in Lancaster County
Democratic and Republican voters in Lancaster County are preparing to select candidates for state and national offices, including state House and Senate, Pennsylvania governor and lieutenant governor and a member
ICYMI: During NFL Draft Weekend, Governor Shapiro and Administration Leaders Work to Boost Economic Development and Bring New Business to Pennsylvania - PA Department of Community & Economic Development
The Shapiro Administration and the Allegheny Conference on Community Development hosted national site selectors for major companies in Western Pennsylvania during the NFL Draft, pitching them on bringing business to […]
Epstein scandal lingers in background of King Charles’ visit to Washington
As King Charles III and Queen Camilla were being greeted by the US president, first lady and pomp and circumstance designed for royalty at the White House Tuesday morning, a group of individuals who had been denied an in-person meeting with the king and queen took their chance to be heard a couple of miles down Pennsylvania Avenue.
Penn College kicks off Small Business Month with book signing
Pennsylvania College of Technology is celebrating National Small Business Month throughout May with several events and activities designed for small business owners and individuals interested in turning their ideas into reality.
Boston Celtics at Philadelphia 76ers odds, picks and predictions
The Boston Celtics face the Philadelphia 76ers in Game 4 of their first-round playoff series from Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Tip-off is at 7 p.m. ET
Penn health experts discuss Pa. court ruling recognizing ‘fundamental right’ to abortion
In the case — titled Allegheny Reproductive Health Center v. Pennsylvania Department of Human Services — the court recognized “a fundamental right to reproductive autonomy” under the Pennsylvania Constitution.
MMI Prep students excel at PA Junior Academy of Science
Theresa Long, head of school, announced MMI Preparatory School students had an outstanding showing at the Pennsylvania Junior Academy of Science competition that was held Feb. 28, at Wilkes University. MMI’s 37 participating students earned…
Democrat Josh Shapiro tests political muscle in swing-state Pennsylvania's midterms
Democrat Josh Shapiro tests political muscle in swing-state Pennsylvania's midterms
Shapiro is urging Democrats in the battleground state to turn out in force as a rebuke to President Donald Trump and give Democrats control of the state legislature.
Cases of syphilis and other STIs drop in Pennsylvania, new data shows, as local counties ramp up prevention and testing
Public health teams across the state ramped up efforts to target STIs after a sharp increase between 2020 and 2021.
Food vendors at Point State Park take on large crowds at the NFL Draft
Long lines formed inside the NFL Draft Experience at Point State Park for food and drinks that were cooked, baked, and brewed by local food vendors from around western Pennsylvania.
Democrat Josh Shapiro tests political muscle in swing-state Pennsylvania’s midterms
He’s trying to persuade voters to give him Democratic control of the state legislature.
How Pittsburgh — host of this year's NFL draft — became a sports mecca
The Pennsylvania city is hosting the draft for the first time in almost 80 years. Pittsburghers say the city's passionate fanbases and winning teams make the selection a natural fit.
Shapiro Administration Highlights Governor’s Proposed Investments to Improve Health Care and Social Services for Pennsylvanians Leaving Incarceration during Second Chance Month
Shapiro Administration Highlights Governor’s Proposed Investments to Improve Health Care and Social Services for Pennsylvanians Leaving Incarceration during Second Chance Month
Josh Shapiro tests his clout in trying to flip US House seats in Pennsylvania
If Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro has his way, the Democratic path to winning back the US House will run through his state.
Democrat Josh Shapiro tests political muscle in swing-state Pennsylvania's midterms
Josh Shapiro may be heavily favored to win reelection as Pennsylvania governor, but that doesn't mean there isn't a lot on the line for him this year.
Jefferson Einstein health workers say North Philly pediatric practices closures will leave ‘a hole’ in communities
Four longstanding pediatric offices will close June 30 and three others will become part of the True North Pediatrics group, based in Pennsylvania.
ICYMI: U.S. Senator John Fetterman Joins Meghan McCain to Talk Family Life, Mental Health, Psychedelics, Politics - U.S. Senator John Fetterman
Watch the full interview here. WASHINGTON, D.C. — Yesterday, U.S. Senator John Fetterman (D-PA) joined Meghan McCain on Citizen McCain for a conversation around mental health and his own struggles with depression, being a family man, what it means to represent all Pennsylvanians, and working across the aisle at a time when politics has become […]
4 WVU students named Goldwater Scholars, a University first
For the first time, West Virginia University has four recipients of the Goldwater Scholarship — Caden Ginter from Carlisle, Pennsylvania, Mason Powell from Canaan Valley, Cloe Ratliff from Morgantown and Camndon Reed from Watertown, Massachusetts — who were chosen for their strong commitment to continuing careers in research.
Jamieson Honored for Outstanding Work in Prevention and Public Health | The Annenberg Public Policy Center of the University of Pennsylvania
The Association for Prevention Teaching and Research honored Kathleen Hall Jamieson for her work in public health and education.
Attorney General Sunday Reaches $40K Settlement With Florida-Based Company that Allegedly Posed as Pa. State Agency Targeting New Business Owners
HARRISBURG – Attorney General Dave Sunday announced a settlement with a Florida-based company and its owners for allegedly impersonating a Commonwealth agency as part of efforts to get money from owners of newly-registered Pennsylvania businesses. The company will pay $40,000 in total restitution to impacted business owners. PA Corporate Certificates, LLC, contacted Pennsylvania-based business owners […]
Pa. Senate makes another attempt at passing transgender sports ban
While 27 states have passed transgender sports bans since 2020, these proposals have repeatedly faltered in Pennsylvania.
More Pennsylvanians unhappy with the state of health care, stressed out by politics, Muhlenberg poll finds
According to Muhlenberg College’s 2026 Pennsylvania Health Poll, Pennsylvanians’ outlook on health care continues to worsen.
This University of Pennsylvania lab is working on new ways to detect microplastics
FactCheck.org Wins People's Voice Webby Award in News & Politics | The Annenberg Public Policy Center of the University of Pennsylvania
FactCheck.org has won the popular-vote People's Voice Award as best news and politics site at the 30th Annual Webby Awards.
WATCH: Pennsylvanians Impacted by Neurodegenerative Diseases
WATCH: Pennsylvanians Impacted by Neurodegenerative Diseases
Pa. receives $193 million from Rural Health Transformation Program, but rural health leaders remain wary of shortfalls
Pennsylvania received $193 million this year from the Rural Health Transformation Program, which will inject $50 billion over five years to the states. But the state’s rural health leaders worry that the money won’t be enough to fill the financial gaps rural health systems already face and the ones to come with Medicaid changes slated to start in 2027.
How Pa.'s falling school vaccination rates and enforcement failures put thousands of children at risk
A six-month Pittsburgh Post-Gazette investigation found that school leaders have allowed thousands of children into schools without all the required vaccines even though they had no special exemptions that let them forgo the shots on religious or philosophical grounds — a violation of state vaccine laws.
University of Pittsburgh team's FRED model tracks measles
Pitt's Framework for Reconstructing Epidemiological Dynamics program was instrumental in convincing lawmakers to pass rare legislation that took away the ability of residents to skip vaccines because of religious or personal beliefs.
Inside the Shapiro administration’s ‘absolutely ambitious’ plan to prevent maternal deaths in Pennsylvania
Spotlight PA is an independent, nonpartisan, and nonprofit newsroom producing investigative and public-service journalism that holds power to account and...
\'It\'s personal to me\': Bill requiring mental health awareness training for coaches passes in state House
A bill requiring mental health awareness training for school athletics staff is headed to the Pennsylvania Senate after passing in the state House on Wednesday.
Hotline for Pennsylvania farmers sees major drop in calls, texts amid mental health crisis
This story was produced by the State College regional bureau of Spotlight PA, an independent, nonpartisan newsroom dedicated to investigative and public-service...
Remembering some Penguins vs. Flyers playoff moments
With the Battle of Pennsylvania poised to resume in the Stanley Cup Playoffs for the first time in nearly a decade, what better time than now to take a trip down memory lane and revisit some of the highs and lows from when the Penguins and Flyers have squared off against one another in the […]
How Penn Dining selects campus business partners, determines payment methods
The Daily Pennsylvanian spoke with members of the Penn Dining team to learn how the University selects business partners and decides which payment methods are accepted at different dining locations.
Why rural hospitals in Pennsylvania and across the country are closing in increasing numbers – 5 myths about rural health care
Rural hospitals have high fixed costs, low patient volume and a large portion of patients insured through Medicaid, which typically pays less than private insurers.
Luc Schrauf selected as Eberly College of Science spring 2026 student marshal
Luc Schrauf of State College, Pennsylvania, will be honored as the student marshal for the Penn State Eberly College of Science at the University’s spring 2026 commencement ceremony on Sunday, May 10, on the University Park campus.
Thaddeus Stevens College to launch online small business management program
Thaddeus Stevens College of Technology prides itself on integrating its students into central Pennsylvania trade and technical programs, to the point that many are working for local businesses before they
Jennifer Riley: Nuclear verdicts and junk science are creating a judicial hellhole
Over the years, Pennsylvania has become flooded with excessive lawsuits that are pushing our healthcare system to a breaking point. […]
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
5th Annual Clinical Mental Health Counseling Virtual Conference
The Commonwealth University of Pennsylvania - Lock Haven, Department of Counseling & Educational Leadership, Clinical Men
Legislators, behavioral health professionals discuss Westmoreland County mental health goals, challenges
Legislators and behavioral health professionals will discuss the mental health challenges and priorities among Westmoreland County residents Friday. The fourth annual mental health legislative breakfast, held at the Westmoreland Intermediate Unit, is a partnership between Westmoreland County Commissioner Doug Chew, Mental Health America of Southwestern Pennsylvania and Adelphoi. This year’s
Hip-hop pioneer Afrika Bambaataa dies at age 68
Afrika Bambaataa, a hip-hop pioneer, has died of prostate cancer in Pennsylvania at age 68, according to his lawyer. Known for tracks like “Planet Rock,” Bambaataa was a key figure
Hip-hop pioneer Afrika Bambaataa dies at age 68
Afrika Bambaataa, a hip-hop pioneer, has died of prostate cancer in Pennsylvania at age 68, according to his lawyer | KMBZ
Hip-hop pioneer Afrika Bambaataa dies at age 68
Afrika Bambaataa, a hip-hop pioneer, has died of prostate cancer in Pennsylvania at age 68, according to his lawyer | WWL
Hip-hop pioneer Afrika Bambaataa dies at age 68
Afrika Bambaataa, a hip-hop pioneer, has died of prostate cancer in Pennsylvania at age 68, according to his lawyer | 830 WCCO
Hip-hop pioneer Afrika Bambaataa dies at age 68
Afrika Bambaataa, a hip-hop pioneer, has died of prostate cancer in Pennsylvania at age 68, according to his lawyer | Talk Radio 1210 WPHT
Direct mail company to eliminate 106 Portland jobs
Direct Marketing Solutions said it’s expanding elsewhere. It also has operations in Illinois and Pennsylvania.
Spanberger signs bipartisan bills tied to billions in business investment across Virginia
Gov. Abigail Spanberger on Monday signed a package of economic development bills aimed at securing billions of dollars in private investment and creating thousands of jobs across Virginia, highlighting projects in Southside and Central Virginia tied to manufacturing, energy infrastructure and pharmaceuticals.The legislation supports several major projects announced by the administration in February, including a more than $500 million investment in Pittsylvania County by Avio USA Inc. The company plans to build an 860,000-square-foot manufacturing facility at the Southern Virginia Multimodal Park in the town of Hurt.
120,000 Pennsylvanians have dropped ACA health insurance since the loss of federal subsidies
High monthly premium payments without enhanced tax credits, coupled with high costs of daily living, have caused some to cut insurance.
Trying Amtrak's business class on long ride; not worth it every time
My eight-hour ride in Amtrak's business class on the Pennsylvanian to New York City had perks, but the upgrade didn't feel so different from coach.
Pennsylvania Brewing Co. files for bankruptcy protection alongside owner's real estate firm
Penn Brewery and owner Stefan Nitsch's Arkham Realty file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in Pittsburgh.
FactCheck.org Nominated for 30th Annual Webby Awards in News & Politics | The Annenberg Public Policy Center of the University of Pennsylvania
FactCheck.org has been nominated in the 30th Annual Webby Awards for best news and politics website or mobile site.
Pennsylvania Lawmakers Are Talking the Talk on Data Center Regulations. But Will They Walk?
As public opposition to AI data center development ratchets up in Pennsylvania, politicians are promising to protect local communities. Whether the state’s fractious politics can deliver is another question.
A WNC ground station is back in business for NASA's Artemis II
A Transylvania County science research and education center with roots in the Space Race is getting back to its original mission, helping NASA track astronauts as they head to the moon for the first time in more than 50 years.