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Partington still has 'hope' Iraola will stay at club
Speaking on the Cherries Unpicked podcast, former Bournemouth midfielder Joe Partington says he still has "hope" that Iraola will decide to stay at the Vitality Stadium beyond this season, despite not committing his future yet. It's not over until the fat lady sings, I suppose, and the Bournemouth fans will hold out hope because they've not had any news that it could still mean it's positive.
Swalwell out, new poll could alter April 22 debate lineup
The field for the upcoming Inside California Politics gubernatorial debate is likely to shift following the sudden exit of Rep. Eric Swalwell, who dropped out of the race over the weekend amid alle…
Rochester resident, business team up to feed TSA workers amid partial shutdown
The Med City is seeing community members lend a hand to those in need, one boxed lunch at a time.
Entertainment giant to cut 1,000 jobs amid restructuring
The move comes as entertainment industry feels increasing pressure from digital-first age.
Alex Cooper breaks silence on Alix Earle's 'beef' amid feud rumors
After a year of feud rumors between the podcasters, Alex Cooper directly addressed Alix Earle, who seems to have \
Earth Day forum to explore climate solutions through business and policy in San Francisco
Earth Day arrives next week. Amid global distractions, a local public forum plots new strategies for tackling climate change. The World Meteorological
Trump's Iran war deepens the GOP's midterm challenges: From the Politics Desk
Plus, Trump vs. the pope.
Astros place shortstop Jeremy Peña, pitcher Tatsuya Imai on injured list amid 7-game losing streak
Microsoft reveals major price increases for all Surface PCs as RAM crisis continues: Flagships now $500 more expensive than at launch
Microsoft is raising prices on all its current Surface PC offerings, with the midrange devices now starting at above $1,000, and flagships starting at $1,500.
Three Exit Black River Entertainment
SVP Promotion Bill Macky, Midwest regional Joe Carroll and West Coast rep Jim Malito have [...]
GFWAR: The Missing Middle - Why Attainable Housing Matters for Fort Worth’s Business Community
Learn more about attainable housing in this sponsored article by Greater Fort Worth Association of REALTORS.
White House says it’s boosting affordability through physician reforms
A new report distills the Trump administration’s strategy as officials jockey to shape health care messages ahead of this year’s midterm elections.
Iran war has some US water utilities facing a fluoride shortage
Some U.S. water utilities are reporting that the Middle East war is disrupting their ability to maintain recommended fluoride levels in the drinking water.
Reservations for Slate's 'mid-$20,000' EV pickup cross 160,000
Investors are betting a fresh $650 million that Slate can make its proudly bare-bones EV pickup a hit. The company is targeting a 2026 launch.
Hawaiʻi businesses reminded to file their second quarter annual business reports
The annual report filing period is related to the business entity’s registration date and can be filed at any time during the quarter in which the filing is due; second quarter reports must be filed by midnight June 30.
Democrat-Leaning Plan Takes Aim At Health Insurers With Proposed New Regulations
Healthcare initiatives being proposed like Patients' Bill of Rights offer a roadmap for Democrats’ priorities, with midterms looming and a presidential election in 2028.
Hawaiʻi businesses reminded to file their second quarter annual business reports
The annual report filing period is related to the business entity’s registration date and can be filed at any time during the quarter in which the filing is due; second quarter reports must be filed by midnight June 30.
OPEC lowers second-quarter global oil demand forecast on Iran war
OPEC on Monday lowered its forecast for world oil demand in the second quarter, citing the impact of the ongoing war in the Middle East, a copy of its monthly oil report seen by Reuters showed.
Live updates: Swalwell drops bid for California governor; Trump and Pope Leo feud
Get live updates and the latest news as Eric Swalwell drops his bid for California governor amid sexual misconduct allegations and Trump feuds with Pope Leo over his criticism of the Iran war.
Midland County Sports Hall honors six inductees at banquet
Masterful coaching, Olympic heights, basketball glory, baseball excellence, and the power to convey them all in writing were honored Saturday at the Midland County Sports Hall of Fame induction.
Ohio health officials warn of sedative detected in illegal drug supply
The drug is called medetomidine, and it's being mixed with opioids, such as fentanyl.
Calls grow for Eric Swalwell to resign from House amid sexual assault allegations
The California Democrat suspended his campaign for governor amid sexual assault and misconduct allegations by a former staff member and at least three other women
State Farm sues Amazon after dehumidifier allegedly sparks fire
A federal agency deemed Amazon a "distributor" - now an insurer wants it to pay
Where to invest $10,000 right now amid Iran war volatility: 9 market pros
We bring you the latest in our series on how to invest $10,000, with nine Wall Street pros sounding off on where they'd park a chunk of cash right now.
Mid-America Science Museum opening interactive dinosaur exhibit April 25
Dinosaurs will return to Mid-America Science Museum starting April 25 with the exhibit "Expedition: Dinosaur."
US intel officials scramble to keep surveillance law running amid Iran war tensions
With just days until a powerful surveillance law lapses, US national security officials are scrambling to prepare for potential blind spots in intelligence collection amid the US’ delicate ceasefire with Iran, current and former officials told CNN.
As Iran war drags on, midterm forecasts for Republicans get even worse
The GOP was already bracing for a tough election, but with the ceasefire in doubt, gas prices are likely to stay high, and voters’ economic outlook is dismal.
From Vision to Reality: Sports Complex Initiative Takes Center Stage at April Greenville-Pitt Power Luncheon
A major community initiative is coming into focus this April, and local leaders will have a front-row seat to the conversation. Andrew Schmidt, President &
TCU Nutritional Sciences Expert Discusses New US Dietary Guidelines
As updated federal recommendations roll out, Samantha Davis highlights gaps between science and messaging.
What to watch for in WPIAL sports for April 13, 2026: West A, Pine-Richland square off in section battle
It’s the midway point of the WPIAL baseball and softball seasons with three weeks of section play in the books and three weeks remaining.
European chemical firms, hit hard by Iran war, to report falling Q1 earnings
European chemical companies are expected to report weaker first-quarter results, shedding light on how deep the impact from the war in the Middle East has been on an industry largely seen as one of the most exposed to it.
Already under financial pressure, Midwest soybean farmers are squeezed further by tariffs, Iran war
Midwest soybean farmers are facing an array of compounding issues | WBEN
Trump Says Gas Prices Might Not Drop By Midterms, Highlighting G.O.P. Peril
The president has sent mixed messages on how long he expects costs to be high. Some in his party voiced fresh concern after his comments on Sunday.
IMF director says shock from US-Iran War is 'baked' into the economy
War has ravaged the Middle East for 43 days, but the damage could take years to repair amid tension at the Strait of Hormuz and damaged oil hubs.
Report Suggests Potential Detroit Lions Schedule Release Dates
The Detroit Lions 2026 NFL schedule release date is coming in mid-May. Here’s what we know and who the Lions will face.
Arsenal target warned to avoid joining the Gunners
PSV star Ismael Saibari has long been linked with a move to Arsenal, and a transfer could materialise at the end of the current season. The Moroccan midfielder has established himself as one of the st...
State reminds businesses to file second quarter business reports
The annual report filing period is related to the business entity’s registration date and can be filed at any time during the quarter in which the filing is due; second quarter reports must be filed by midnight June 30.
Byron Donalds: Regime change is imminent in Cuba
Amid rising tensions between the U.S. and Cuba, Donalds claims the fall of the Communist dicatorship will come as the economy worsens.
Staffing and pay concerns at the forefront of Sutter Health workers informational picket
Workers at Sutter Health hospitals in Northern California, including Sacramento, held an informational picket to highlight concerns about unsafe staffing and pay amid ongoing contract negotiations.
Tucker Carlson calls Donald Trump 'slave' to Israel amid Iran war
Conservative commentator Tucker Carlson called President Donald Trump a "slave" to Israel, blaming the country for entering the Iran war.
Kings reportedly retaining Doug Christie as coach despite disappointing 2025-26 season
Christie replaced Mike Brown midway through the 2024-25 season
Will thrilling Scottish title race be decided on goal difference?
Rangers' 6-3 win over Falkirk extends the Ibrox side's advantage over leaders Heart of Midlothian and Celtic should the Scottish Premiership title be decided on goal difference.
Educate, empower, and advocate: Mercy Medical Center midwife discusses Black Maternal Health Week
Mercy Medical Center midwife Kia Hollis joins Jenyne Donaldson to discuss Black Maternal Health Week.
Trump says gas prices could be same or 'a little bit higher' before midterms
One of the sticking points in the negotiations held in Islamabad has been Iran's stranglehold over the Strait of Hormuz.
Black Maternal Health Week highlights disparities, solutions at Hampton Roads conference
Held as part of the national awareness week from April 11 to 17, the conference brought together doctors, nurses, social workers and midwife advocates to address inequities in maternal health care and outcomes.
Inside the $350 million missile silo that could become a data center
Tech firms are turning missile silos and abandoned mines into secure data centers as Americans flock to survival camps amid rising fears of world war.
Cuban leader does not commit to releasing political prisoners amid U.S. demands
In an exclusive interview with Meet the Press, Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel is asked whether he is willing to commit to meeting key U.S. demands, including releasing political prisoners and scheduling multi-party elections.
Bengals’ mid-round targets hinted with latest NFL draft visit
Another Bengals visit hints at what the team might want to do in the second round and beyond.
Tension at OGC Nice amid relegation battle
Amid fears of relegation to Ligue 2, tension is rising at OGC Nice, according to a report from Nice-Matin.The club host Le Havre AC on Sunday afternoon, 24 hours after AJ Auxerre’s draw against FC ...
SPFL prepare for Old Firm play-off
The Scottish Professional Football League is preparing for a potential Old Firm Premiership play-off should the title race end in a deadlock between Rangers and Celtic. Daily Record) Lawrence Shankland looks increasingly likely to stay at Heart of Midlothian until the end of the 30-year-old Scotland striker's current contract despite long-standing interest in his signature from Rangers. (Football Insider)
Christmas Vacation and Congress: 'We're all in misery' amid the ongoing DHS shutdown
Fox News' Chad Pergram discusses Congress' prolonged DHS shutdown and the risky tactics associated with it as political divisions threaten deeper government funding crises.
Politics: Iowa gubernatorial race shifts to 'toss-up'
The nonpartisan political prediction source Cook Political Report has classified Iowa’s 2026 gubernatorial race as a “toss-up” ahead of this November’s midterms.
Illinois football hosts Mom’s Weekend practice
CHAMPAIGN, Ill. (WCIA) — Illini football took a break from the traditional spring practice for one that featured a special twist. Amidst mom’s weekend on the U of I campus, players’ moms took to the practice field with their sons for a second straight season. These football families are grateful for the quality time together […]
Young entrepreneurs shine at Memphis Children’s Business Fair
MEMPHIS, Tenn. — Dozens of Mid-South kids put their creativity and business skills to the test Saturday during the Annual Memphis Children’s Business Fair. The event, held April 11 at Wolfcha…
110,000-year-old discovery rewrites human history: Neanderthals and Homo sapiens worked together
The first-ever published research on Tinshemet Cave reveals that Neanderthals and Homo sapiens in the mid-Middle Paleolithic Levant not only coexisted but actively interacted, sharing technology, lifestyles, and burial customs. These interactions fostered cultural exchange, social complexity, and behavioral innovations, such as formal burial practices and the symbolic use of ochre for decoration. The findings suggest that human connections, rather than isolation, were key drivers of technological and cultural advancements, highlighting the Levant as a crucial crossroads in early human history.
UBS Raises Petco Health and Wellness Company, Inc. (WOOF) Target Amid Growth Strategy
Petco Health & Wellness Co. Inc. (NASDAQ:WOOF) is one of the best cheap penny stocks to buy that aren’t scams. On March 16, UBS raised its price target on Petco Health & Wellness Co. Inc. (NASDAQ:WOOF) to $4.00 from $3.50, while keeping a Neutral rating. The positive stance underscores the research firm’s confidence about the […]
Chamber of Commerce Presents Achievement Awards
Event also marked 110th of the chamber’s presence in Oswego [caption id=attachment_10469 align=alignright width=450] Abby Waever and Keara Patterson (in the middle) receive the Community Leadership & Legacy Award, presented to The Alberts Group.[/caption] The Greater Oswego-Fulton Chamber of Commerce (GOFCC) on March 4 hosted its 2026 Annual Meeting, presented by Constellation, at the Lake Ontario Event and Conference Center in Oswego. The event’s theme, Rooted in Community. The meeting celebrated the GOFCC’s 110th anniversary in the Oswego community and 10th anniversary of integration with CenterState CEO. The chamber also unveiled a new logo. “I am proud to say the GOFCC has been a force for business success, growth and opportunity, supporting organizations of every size, connecting neighbors and entrepreneurs and ensuring that every voice in Oswego County is heard,” said GOFCC Executive Director Sara Broadwell. The event featured keynote remarks from Novelis’s Kevin Schutt, vice president, manufacturing and production support at Novelis North America. [caption id=attachment_10454 align=alignright width=450] Maria Hudson of Constellation, holding the award, receives the Nancy L. Premo Woman of Distinction Award.[/caption] The GOFCC recognized the following organizations and individuals with achievement awards: • Oswego County Impact & Excellence Award, presented to Oswego County Office of Mobility Management. This award Honors a small business or nonprofit organization that demonstrates outstanding achievement through innovation, growth and measurable positive impact on Oswego County’s economy or quality of life. • Community Leadership & Legacy Award, presented to The Alberts Group. This award recognizes an individual, business or organization whose long-term leadership, investment or philanthropy has significantly advanced the vitality, resilience and future of Oswego County’s communities. • Nancy L. Premo Woman of Distinction Award, presented to Maria Hudson of Constellation. This award honors a woman in business who has made a meaningful impact on her community, inspired others through her leadership, and exemplified the values of service, integrity and empowerment. This award is presented in tribute to the late Nancy Premo, CenterState CEO’s former vice president of Human Resources.
Mid-Missouri event offers free health services, brake light repairs and meals
Tallgrass Collective hosted a free clinic offering health services, vehicle brake light repairs, food and clothes Saturday from 11 a.m. to 2 p.m.
Iraq elects Kurdish politician Nizar Amidi as president amid Iran war fallout
Iraq's parliament voted Saturday to elect Nizar Amidi as president, five months after a parliamentary election that didn't produce a decisive majority.
Salah, Ngumoha ease Liverpool crisis with Fulham win
Liverpool's rising star and departing legend combined to ease the pressure on Arne Slot as goals from teenager Rio Ngumoha and Mohamed Salah beat Fulham 2-0, snapping the Reds' three-game losing streak on Saturday.Salah failed to get on the pitch at all during Liverpool's chastening 2-0 Champions League defeat by Paris Saint-Germain in midweek.
Rhode Island Marijuana Business License Lottery Blocked By Federal Judge Amid Challenge To Residency Rules
“Knowing the Act was facing legal challenges…CCC continued forward with its plan to implement the Act and its licensing scheme. The resulting fall-out will be, to be blunt, self-inflicted.” By Christopher Shea, Rhode Island Currant Nearly 100 applicants vying for 20 new cannabis retail licenses that were supposed to be awarded via lottery as soon […]
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
Peru holds presidential election amid a decade of political tumult
In the span of a decade, Peru has seen nine presidents come and go. How has that affected this year's presidential race?
Iraq elects Kurdish politician Nizar Amidi as president amid war fallout
BAGHDAD (AP) — Iraq’s parliament voted Saturday to elect Nizar Amidi, a political official with one of the country’s two main Kurdish parties, as president, five months after a parliamentary election that didn’t produce a bloc with a decisive majority.
Iraq elects Kurdish politician Nizar Amidi as president amid war fallout
Iraq’s parliament has elected Nizar Amidi as president, five months after elections failed to produce a decisive majority. The vote took place Saturday.
Aerospace engineer who worked on Artemis II thanks middle school science teachers
A little more than a decade ago, Nate Eller was an standout student at Twin Hills Middle School in Sebastopol. Today, he’s an aerospace engineer at NASA who played a role in the Artemis II mission.
Midtown High students shine at Future Business Leaders of America conference
Midtown High School’s Future Business Leaders of America chapter recently captured top honors at the Georgia FBLA State Leadership conference
Tigers' Casey Mize hopes sunny skies signal success vs. Marlins
Casey Mize made his most recent start in brutal weather conditions, and the Detroit Tigers right-hander hopes better weather will lead to better results on Saturday when he pitches the middle game of a three-game home series against the Miami Marlins on Saturday afternoon.
I shut down my successful brick-and-mortar business to reinvent myself
I spent two decades as a solopreneur building my photography studio. In my 50s, I wanted to try something new. I'm now reinventing myself in midlife.
The Growth of the Upper Middle Class, a Focus on Sperm Health and the Workers Shunning AI | WSJ Weekend Reads for April 11
Plus, a focus on sperm health, the workers shunning AI and making golf a family affair
Apple is 50: how Steve Jobs pulled it back from the brink
In an extract from his history of the company, David Pogue looks back on the year when its co-founder returned amid crisis and found its lost soul
I found the ‘memory cheat code’ for ChatGPT — and it fixed my worst problem with AI
One simple prompt stopped ChatGPT from “forgetting” everything mid-conversation — and it completely changed how I use it
Peru's election: A battle for the Presidency amid political chaos and crime
With 35 candidates in the race, Peru is set to elect its 9th president in less than a decade. Amid rising corruption and crime, voters are left asking: Can this election finally break the cycle?
Barcelona face major setback in race for teenage midfield sensation
According to SPORT, Barcelona are closely monitoring Kennet Eichhorn, a highly-rated 16-year-old currently developing at Hertha Berlin. The youngster has emerged as one of the most promising midfield...
Exclusive: US intelligence indicates China is preparing weapons shipment to Iran amid fragile ceasefire, sources say
US intelligence indicates that China is preparing to deliver new air defense systems to Iran within the next few weeks, according to three people familiar with recent intelligence assessments.
World Leaders Push to Save Iran Talks Amid Israel’s Attacks in Lebanon
President Trump’s cease-fire with Iran appears at risk as Vice President JD Vance heads to Pakistan for discussions with Iranian officials.
'Malcolm in the Middle' star Bryan Cranston speaks on stunts, bee stings
Bryan Cranston is looking back on 'Malcolm in the Middle' given the recent Hulu revival, and the comedy icon confirms he was shaved, painted and stung in the name of comedy.
Miguel Rojas Makes Bereavement Decision After Father’s Passing
Dodgers veteran Miguel Rojas is staying with the team and will not go on the bereavement list amid the passing of his father, Miguel "Mickey" Rojas Sr.
Melania Trump’s Epstein statement stunned White House aides but was in keeping with a first lady who does her own thing
With war raging and midterms on the horizon, the White House seemed to have finally shaken the Jeffrey Epstein saga that plagued the first year of Donald Trump’s second term. But for first lady Melania Trump, the Epstein story was still all consuming.
Robert MacIntyre has awkward Masters exit after a middle-finger moment, missed cut and no interviews
Robert MacIntyre made headlines for all the wrong reasons at the Masters | NewsRadio WILK
Rome Health recognized by Newsweek magazine
Rome Health has been recognized by Newsweek magazine as one of "America's Greatest Midsize Workplaces in Health Care" for 2026, according to hospital officials.
Trump Moves Top Aide James Blair to Political Operation Ahead of Midterms
Mr. Blair will “lead the charge from the outside,” the president said on social media. The move comes as Republicans are bracing for a potentially difficult November election.
Trump Moves Top Aide James Blair to Political Operation Ahead of Midterm
Mr. Blair will “lead the charge from the outside,” the president said on social media. The move comes as Republicans are bracing for a potentially difficult November election.
Thomas S. Langner, Who Linked Social Ills to Mental Illness, Dies at 102
He helped lead what became known as the Midtown Manhattan Study, which showed that mental impairment is highly correlated with low socioeconomic status.
Teddi Mellencamp reveals she's dating an older man who’s been 'pretty good' amid her ongoing cancer battle
Teddi Mellencamp reveals she's dating an older man who has been 'pretty good' amid her ongoing cancer battle.
BAFTA apologizes again for racial slur scandal amid review results
BAFTA Board of Trustees says it is 'determined to learn from what happened' in the racial slur scandal that overshadowed its annual awards celebration in February.
Burned Before, Democrats Abruptly Revive the Idea of Impeaching Trump
Democrats in Congress have assiduously avoided talk of a third impeachment of President Trump, concerned that it would distract from their midterm campaign message. That tide seems to have turned.
Proactive business decisions are improving local cancer care
Two of the region’s leading cancer organizations—Mary Bird Perkins Cancer Center and Ochsner Cancer Center—are pushing deeper into underserved communities, deploying new technology and rethinking how care is delivered. The challenges of access, staffing and financing remain formidable, but the distance between patients and quality care is shrinking. Nearly 80% of Louisiana’s land is classified […]
Trump raked in $28 million from Middle East business deals. Then he started a war.
The president's Persian Gulf real estate projects are worth roughly $17 billion.
College basketball transfer portal fill up with more than 2,000 men's players
Mid-major conferences are being hit hard by transfers, but so are the Power Conferences as more than 320 players enter from P-4 schools
URI’s Biomechanics Day event exposes younger students to high-tech science, promotes STEM fields
KINGSTON, R.I. — April 10, 2026 — High school and middle school students from around the state got a hands-on experience with the high-tech equipment used by the University of Rhode Island College of Health Sciences during URI’s annual celebration of National Biomechanics Day in Mackal Field House on April 8. More than 500 students […]
Ozarks Sports Zone Digital Extra: Midseason spring sports report
The high school sports spring season in the Ozarks hits the midway point.
Why many Trump-supporting business owners hope Democrats win the midterms
If the Democrats control Congress, we will have a deadlocked government. And business owners like me will breathe a sigh of relief. We could use a couple of years of inaction to actually focus on o…
Sioux Falls ranks among top Midwest tech metros
Sioux Falls took a big jump in an annual ranking of the best Midwest metros for tech workers.
King County’s mental health expansion 'moving way too slowly,' Zahilay says
We sat down with King County Executive Girmay Zahilay to discuss his vision for mental health and substance use care amid shaky federal and state funding.
CPI: Inflation rose to 3.3% amid Iran war in March, missing forecasts
The new CPI report showed headline inflation sped up in March to the highest rate since 2024. The Iran war is affecting gas prices.
Masters 2026: Robert MacIntyre under fire for lewd gesture in Round 1
MacIntyre stuck up his middle finger — a no-no at Augusta National.
Calls to Impeach Trump Collide With Reluctant Democratic Leadership
Democratic leaders are urging against efforts within the party to impeach Trump before the midterms, say those involved in the debate
Mainz midfielder ruled out for multiple weeks
1. FSV Mainz 05 will have to manage without Jae-sung Lee in the coming weeks.After the midfielder missed Thursday’s 2–0 win over Racing Strasbourg in the Conference League, sporting director Niko ...