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Private investment in youth sports draws state, federal scrutiny
Courtney Hamby and her husband spend close to $6,000 per year for their daughter Ellie’s cheer and tumbling classes, competition fees and uniforms. That doesn’t include their travel expenses for multiple out-of-town competitions, including hotel rooms, gas, meals, and sometimes even flights. “This should be something that everyone gets to play, and it shouldn’t be […]
UFC Freedom 250 Fails to Knock Out The Ratings
(Welcome to my weekly streaming ratings report, the single best guide to what’s popular in streaming TV and what isn’t. I’m the Entertainment Strategy Guy, a former streaming executive who now analyzes business strategy in the entertainment industry. If you were forwarded this email, please subscribe to get these insights each week.) If UFC fans wanted one image to say, “Hey, Paramount+ is crushing it with their UFC rights deal,” I could provide that image. Here it is: (Reminder: this is my creation of the Nielsen Top 30, since Nielsen doesn’t combine the lists or include sports. I take all three lists and combine them. Some streaming TV shows probably have higher ratings than many of the films on this list.) Look at that! UFC Freedom 250 is number one! It topped the Nielsen “Top 30” list for shows and films that made the top ten the week of 15-June. So if you’re a UFC fan or supporter of Paramount+, that’s the good news for you this week. This program topped the ratings charts for one week. Everything else is bad news, or at least a huge caveat to that story, which I’ll explain today in the first part of this week’s Streaming Ratings Report—for the weeks of 8-June and 15-June—which is a double issue since I’ve been writing on a bunch of topics recently. UFC Freedom 250 is one of the biggest streaming events of the year, and super relevant to Paramount+’s strategy, so it merited its own article. Let’s dive in! (Reminder: The streaming ratings report focuses on the U.S. market and compiles data from Nielsen’s weekly top ten viewership ranks, Luminate’s Top Ten Data, JustWatch and Reelgood interest data, Samba TV household viewership, company datecdotes, Netflix hours viewed data, Google Trends, and IMDb to determine the most popular content. While most data points are current, Nielsen’s data covers the weeks of June 8th to June 21st 2026. You can find a link to my terminology here.) Subscribe Check Out My Interview on UFC 250 at MMA Draw After you read this article, if you want even more thoughts on UFC and Paramount-Skydance/Paramount+, I did a written interview with MMA Draw. They asked me to answer some questions about UFC Freedom 250, and I was happy to chat with them. Find it here: [ The MMA Draw Newsletter Did Paramount really overpay for the UFC? What the data tells us so far If you know the history of American television, you also know that combat sports is often a leading indicator of the future… Read more a day ago · 10 likes · 1 comment · Nate Wilcox and Zach Arnold ](https://www.themmadraw.com/p/did-paramount-really-overpay-for?utm_source=substack&utm_campaign=post_embed&utm_medium=web) I never thought I’d need a combat sports newsletter in my life, but the good folks at MMA Draw publish an excellent one on UFC, MMA, pro wrestling, boxing and more, analyzing both the sports themselves and the politics, economics and antitrust issues that impact them. Check the article and their newsletter out! Paramount+ Has Its Best Sporting Event of All Time…But Was It Worth It? Before we look at the UFC Freedom 250 data in particular, let’s talk about what we can’t say. Namely, let’s start with the lack of comparisons. First off, I’d love to put a chart out comparing this fight to past UFC fights on Paramount+…but we don’t have the data. This is the first time we’ve gotten Nielsen data about a Paramount+ UFC fight. As far as I can tell, Paramount provided data for the first fight, but it was a proprietary datecdote (saying it had “an average minute audience” of 5 million “views”) and then, for two fights, we got the linear viewership numbers when they aired on CBS, but no streaming data. Everything else was crickets. We also can’t compare this fight to other fights/combat sports on streaming, in particular the MMA and boxing, because Netflix also didn’t use Nielsen to track those events, opting for TVision and VideoAmp, respectively. (This isn’t Paramount’s fault, but does still suck.) We also can’t compare to UFC’s fights that used to be on ESPN+, since we don’t have any data for that, plus Disney+ didn’t have marquee fights. The comparisons would not be apples-to-apples. Can we compare to past Pay-Per-View fights? Absolutely not. The comparisons would absolutely NOT be apples-to-apples. That didn’t stop Paramount+, though, who bragged that their UFC events have reached drastically more people than past PPV fights. Duh. Sorry, but I gotta make this point again. A basic tenet of economics is that the cheaper something becomes, the more people consume or buy it. That’s Econ 101. (Sometimes pundits call things “Econ 101” that are actually like Econ 210 or even PhD-level economics, but no, this is really like first or second class basic economics.) Yet I still see one analytics firm consistently say that more people watch films on streaming than PVOD proves streaming which means that the streaming window is more valuable than the PVOD window. No, it’s not! Same thing here. Pay-Per-View events back in the day could be really, really, really expensive! So whole groups of people pitched in to buy them. That increased the perceived value of, say, the Mike Tyson fight. Or a UFC numbered event. So yes, the fact that Paramount+ makes numbered UFC fights essentially “free” if you’re already a Paramount+ member means consumption will go up. Obviously. Same for Netflix and their boxing matches. They’re talking about fights that used to cost consumers, in some cases, $50 in 1996…which is over $100 in today’s dollars. Over 1.6 million people paid that to watch the Tyson-Holyfield fight! Again, streaming is essentially “free”. Or $10 to $20, depending on what streamer we’re talking about and what tier you’re on. No wonder more people are “watching”. (Plus, Nielsen’s out-of-home viewing also helps these numbers.) UFC Freedom 250 Did Well…But I Have A Lot of Worries So what can we compare the fights to? Well, the good news is Nielsen put out that the fight averaged 7.0 million viewers for UFC Freedom 250, which is a solid number for a fight. We also know the length, at roughly 4 and a half hours. (I saw different run times, but this seems to be the consensus considering it started at 8 pm, had a delay and then finished after midnight on the East Coast. If you assume a shorter run time, then yes, the total hours viewed would go down.) That means I have the two numbers needed to add this to my Nielsen database. And then…I can compare this viewership to the NFL: And, uh, not great. But also within striking distance, mainly because the runtime for this event was so long. I’d also add that this event had viewership equal to a regular season NFL game on streaming, but if anything, it was more comparable to an NFL playoff or Super Bowl-esque event. And you can compare viewership to the top football games on broadcast, cable and streaming, and it’s not impressive at all: We can also compare it to other sports that week, including the NBA Finals and start of the World Cup: Again, not great. The NBA generated roughly four times as many average viewers each game for its NBA Finals. The World Cup has similarly big numbers. Also, that’s just a tiny fraction of the 25 most watched sporting events each week. The NBA, NHL and FIFA World Cup had many, many more games racking up hours. We could also compare this to other streaming programs to get an idea of “is this a good investment?” and here is how it ranks compared to other top Paramount+ programs: The worry here? Well, unlike scripted programming, which has rewatchability, older fights/sporting events have very little library value. Very, very few people are rewatching these fights, especially years from now. Paramount has also released datecdotes bragging about their subscriber numbers. Earlier this year, they claimed that the first UFC fight on Paramount+ brought in 1 million subscribers. Then, in their quarterly earnings report, they only ended up with 700K subs. Not great! They claimed they dropped lower-value international subscribers, but that’s why I tend to discount subscriber additions when they’re leaked to the press.1 I expect we may see a bump again for UFC Freedom 250, but I’d caution using subscriber growth so soon after these events to judge the success, since new subs with high churn (see Peacock) aren’t great either. Also, analysts often want to attribute all subscriber growth to their favorite/pet show, and that just doesn’t make sense. The biggest caveat for UFC Freedom 250 and Paramount’s very first UFC marquee event is that these could be high watermarks for the sport. UFC Freedom 250 had an incredible amount of earned media coverage compared to most UFC fights. I mean, it had wall-to-wall national news coverage in the lead up to the event. (The first fight also had a lot of promotion from Paramount since it was first.) Other fights could reach this bar—say the Conor McGregor return to the Octagon—but they’ll be fewer and far between. Was This Deal Worth It? All to ask: is this Paramount deal worth it? In this case, I think the UFC Freedom 250 numbers are more distracting than helpful. This fight did well and compares well to other top sporting events. But we know that the first marquee event was at least a third smaller, if Paramount’s own data is to be believed. And it’s likely the other fights are much, much, much smaller. And then you get to the paycheck that Paramount-Skydance paid. FIFA’s World Cup cost about the same for Fox, but clearly generated multiples more total viewership. (Though it’s only every four years.) The NBA is much more expensive, but until the playoffs, they likely didn’t pay for itself. Even still, Disney, NBCUniversal and Amazon Prime Video likely overpaid. So, in that context, the NBA may be an overpay that makes the UFC look not so bad. But two overpays don’t make an underpay, to paraphrase the old cliché about wrongs and rights. And looking at UFC Freedom 250 as the likely ceiling of MMA on Paramount+, Paramount-Skydance likely paid too much. Share 1 I would love regular reports on subscriber additions by programs, but as is, it’s mostly leaked or rumored in haphazard ways.
Steelers Backup QB Battle Makes Four-Quarterback Roster Idea Unlikely
One of the battles on display in Latrobe for the Pittsburgh Steelers will be the competition for the backup quarterback job. Mason Rudolph and Will Howard will compete for the role, with the loser likely receiving a ticket out of Pittsburgh, unless the Steelers decide to get creative and find a way to keep all of them. One local beat writer proposed that idea, and it’s something the Steelers have done before.
A Quebecer noticed a strange circular pit on Google Maps while planning a trip; scientists have now confirmed it is a 390-million-year-old meteorite impact crater
In late 2023, amateur astronomer Joël Lapointe was doing something very ordinary: Mapping out forest roads for a summer road trip in Quebec. While zooming around northern regions on Google Maps, he spotted something that looked anything but ordinary.
'It Isn't Something Carved in Stone': Xbox Still Unclear on Future PS5 Ports
Single player games could still come to Sony's console
MINNEAPOLIMEDIA PRESENTS | This Weekend in the Twin Cities – Entertainment Guide: July 19, 2026 Edition
From the Minnesota Yacht Club Festival to Aquatennial events, art fairs and family attractions, the Twin Cities wrap up the weekend with something for every age and interest.
Cowboys’ Dak Prescott Sends Emphatic Message Before Training Camp
The Dallas Cowboys are entering the 2026 season with high expectations, and Dak Prescott had something to say about that. The post Cowboys’ Dak Prescott Sends Emphatic Message Before Training Camp appeared first on HEAVY.
Many Homeowners Use Their Oven Drawer Wrong—Here’s What It’s Really For, According to an Appliance Pro
How to tell if your oven’s bottom drawer is best used for storage, food warming, or something else, such as a broiler.
Spidery Drone Goes Near-invisible By Spinning Really, Really Fast
Researchers demonstrate that something interesting happens when a small drone with a spindly airframe spins at a high speed: it very nearly turns invisible. The spidery device is shown mounted in i…
'Not much we don't do' | In rural Ohio, a ministry started its own landscaping business to combat homelessness
Even though it can be hidden, homelessness still exists in small towns across Ohio. We went to a place in Clinton County that's doing something about it, despite a lack of resources.
Something odd about couples has puzzled scientists for more than a century
Once I saw it, I couldn't unsee it. Had I noticed something real or was it just the people around me? I set out to find out what the data had to say.
Did this scientist solve humanity’s biggest mystery? The surprising theory explained - Futura-Sciences
From behind the Iron Curtain Gánti was born in Vác, Hungary, on September 10, 1933. He grew up during World War II and the subsequent Soviet occupation. Though he trained as a chemical engineer and worked in industrial biochemistry, his lifelong obsession was a fundamental question: what actually defines something...
VOICES: Wildfire smoke exposes a hard truth — why staying indoors isn't enough in Michigan
I have lived my entire life in Southeast Michigan, and until the summer of 2023, wildfire smoke was not something we regularly experienced here. Today,
Mind science may unlock effective leadership
Something is changing about what it means to lead.
Energy security starts at home
By Carly West With Colorado’s legislative session behind us and a new group of lawmakers preparing to take office next year, now is a good time to step back and consider a broader question: What role should Colorado play in America’s energy future? For most Americans, energy security isn’t something they think about every day. […]
Darden Alum’s AI Finance Platform Lightens the Load for Startups and Small Businesses
For Michael Fajardo (MBA ’20), the word is a nod first to Michael Porter, the strategist whose Five Forces framework he studied at the University of Virginia Darden School of Business. But it also meant something simpler: a person who carries the bags, lightens the load and helps someone keep moving.
'Somebody needs to do something': GOP senators split as Tuberville demands McConnell answers
Tommy Tuberville demands answers about Mitch McConnell's health and Senate return timeline as the August recess looms and key Trump votes approach.
Why Christians should care about science denialism
When misinformation fuels disease outbreaks and deepens inequality, science denialism becomes something Christians need to notice.
Waste, fraud, abuse… and the politics of power
One of the oldest tricks in politics is knowing when to use a number and when to use a percentage. If you want something to sound enormous, you use the raw number. If you want it to sound insignificant, you use the percentage. Politicians, statisticians and public relations strategists know this. Every citizen should understand […]
Bryson DeChambeau aims to salvage major season at The Open as LIV Golf contract nears expiration
DeChambeau's contract year has been a disaster, but he has one last chance to get something out of the four major championships
ESPN New York joins Buffalo Bills Radio Network
ESPN and the Buffalo Bills are giving New York sports fans something few people in the metropolitan area have been clamoring for. Beginning in the 2026 NFL season, ESPN New York 1050 will be part of the Buffalo Bills Radio Network. The Bills made the announcement Tuesday morning, revealing 23 affiliates in their radio network…
Troy Jackson’s Politics Are Rooted in Maine Logger Struggles
Maine Senate hopeful Troy Jackson’s history is a case study of something the Left often discusses but rarely sees: a working-class politician who emerged from workplace organizing struggles and used his power to advance pro-worker policies.
David Blough shares heartwarming Matthew Stafford story
David Blough was Matthew Stafford's teammate in 2019 when the future MVP did something remarkable for him.
South Omaha businesses say little to no communication creates barriers during Plaza de la Raza construction
"I think there should have been like more communication or try to rearrange something beforehand," a South Omaha business owner said.
‘The Pitt’ Leads With 25 Emmy Nominations, But Has Already Accomplished Something More Important
'The Pitt' leads Emmy nominations with 25 nods, but the medical drama's bigger achievement is teaching millions of Americans about health and healthcare.
Remembering Josh Grisetti, a musical-comedy original who deserved a bigger Broadway spotlight
In an alternate Broadway history, “Enter Laughing,” a musical about a clueless Bronx teenager who dreams of becoming an actor, would have transferred from the
Austin Reaves, Sandro Mamukelashvili are helping Lakers' cap situation
Austin Reaves and Sandro Mamukelashvili did something with their contracts to help give the Lakers some added salary cap flexibility.
Live music and more: 3 things to do this weekend in the Baton Rouge area
Looking for something to do this weekend in the Baton Rouge area? We’ve got you covered.
Josh Grisetti dead: Broadway, ‘Marvelous Mrs. Maisel’ actor was 44
Josh Grisetti, the Broadway actor who charmed audiences with roles in "Something Rotten" and TV's "The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel," died by suicide. He was 44.
Pokémon Champions Reveals Something New And Scary About Gengar
Pokémon Champions reveals the ghost-type monster has tiny little feet
Iraola to speak to media shortly
Iraola was at the AXA Training Centre last week and met a number of players, but with the bulk of Liverpool's first team set to return to Merseyside this week, there's certainly a feeling that business is now really getting started. There are still 41 days before the Reds start their Premier League campaign, away at Newcastle, but Iraola will know of the importance of this first news conference in terms of outlining his vision and giving the fanbase something to look forward to, after a torrid 2025-26 campaign that resulted in the sacking of Arne Slot. The past two men to take the job won Liverpool the Premier League and the club's hierarchy firmly believes Iraola is capable of doing that long term.
O’Rorke, Loeffler discuss newly-created Bulldog Sports Enterprises
(KSEE/KGPE) – Fresno State Athletics is trying something new with its intellectual property and multimedia rights this year, but although the station may be changing, a familiar voice will still be calling their games on the radio. On Bulldog Insider Sunday night, Ryan O’Rorke, the Vice President and General Manager of the newly-created Bulldog Sports […]
'House of the Dragon' Season 3, episode 4: Where are Aemond and Vhagar?
Has he really fled Harrenhal? Or is something else going on?
Something is wrong with Buddy.
Our first few looks at the upcoming feature film debut from Casper Kelly, the deranged human behind Too Many Cooks, played it completely straight. But with the first official teaser, it’s clear that Kelly is taking the “horror” part of “horror comedy” seriously. [Media: https://youtu.be/0mil0YgOtu8]
After a year of tariffs, automakers are still resistant to moving production to the US
Toyota announced last week it would do something other automakers have been reluctant to do – shift some production from Mexico to the United States.
At Family Science Night, Wonder Comes Before Answers.
BAR HARBOR—Family Science Night isn’t really about science. It’s about wonder. It’s about watching a five-year-old realize that the tiny creature under a microscope is a real living thing. It’s about a teenager discovering that the scientist explaining genetics or regeneration isn’t much older than they are. It’s about parents seeing curiosity spread across a child’s face the way excitement spreads across a crowd at a Fourth of July parade. For one evening, families realize that the laboratory isn’t some secretive place where knowledge is hidden behind white coats and closed doors. They learn that the lab is a place their neighbors work, their friends’ parents work, and it becomes a place where questions matter more than answers. It’s a place where wonder is the origin for knowledge. At the lab, children learn that it’s okay not to know. Adults remember that they once asked “Why?” about everything. Scientists are reminded why they fell in love with discovery in the first place. There are experiments, games, obstacle courses, and demonstrations, of course. But those are really just invitations—to touch, to explore, to laugh, to make mistakes, and to ask one more question. In a world that often rewards certainty, Family Science Night celebrates curiosity. And perhaps that’s its greatest gift. Long after the microscopes are packed away and the experiments are over, what families take home isn’t just a few new facts about biology. They take home the feeling that discovery belongs to everyone—that science isn’t something happening somewhere else by someone else. It’s simply what happens when people are given permission to wonder. A Family Science Night at the Mount Desert Island Biological Laboratory is one of those rare community events where children and adults can experience science as something they do, not just something they read about. Hands on discovery allows hands-on learning and joy. Real scientists, some local, some scientist-interns (but still scientists) just in college make science real, approachable, and exciting. And there, complex ideas like forever chemical-filtration, DNA and so much more become not complex. Instead, they become fun. Summer fellows are challenged to explain cutting-edge biomedical research in ways a first-grader—and their grandparent—can understand. Past activities have explored gene expression, kidney function, axolotl regeneration, worms, microplastics, and phytoplankton through games and creative demonstrations. Though it’s called family night, you can also see adults going from station to station, exploring, learning together across ages. Family Science Night reflects the laboratory’s broader mission of breaking down barriers between researchers and the public, helping people understand how scientific discoveries relate to everyday life and the health of Maine’s environment. Family Science Night transforms a world-class research laboratory into a giant interactive classroom, where curiosity is encouraged, questions are celebrated, and families discover that science isn’t just something that happens in a lab—it’s an adventure anyone can join. About MDI Biological Laboratory For more than 125 years, MDI Bio Lab has been a center for training and research in comparative biology. In the last two decades its biomedical research has focused on aging, regeneration, and environmental toxins. The Laboratory houses 11 research groups staffed by an international team of world-class scientists and graduate students. It also leads a statewide network of colleges, universities and research institutions that collaborate to provide training, research experiences and financial support to help young Mainers play a bigger role in today’s biomedical revolution. Located on Maine’s rugged coast, the Laboratory’s 100+ acre campus houses research facilities, cottages and dorms that house visiting scientists and students. It is also home to MDI Bioscience, a subsidiary working to design innovative techniques to speed the drug discovery process. LINKS TO LEARN MORE NIH INBRE MDI BIOLOGICAL LABORATORY Photos: Carrie Jones and Shaun Farrar/Bar Harbor Story HELP SUPPORT THE BAR HARBOR STORY When we started The Bar Harbor Story, we didn’t know if anyone would read it. But you showed up. You shared. You sent tips. Now—over 400,000 views every month later—it’s clear: people here care about their community and each other. We’ve kept everything free because news should never be out of reach, but every one of our stories takes time to write, and your support keeps The Bar Harbor Story going. If you value our work, please consider a paid subscription, a founding membership, or a sponsorship. It truly helps us cover one more meeting, tell one more story, shine one more light. Even $5 a month makes a difference. Click here to become a one-time supporter now. Thank you so much for being here. Founding member information can be found here. Have questions about sponsorships? Just send Shaun an email at sfarrar86@gmail.com, he’d love to hear from you. Subscribe Share Bar Harbor Story Share Leave a comment
Dodgers drop second straight clunker to Diamondbacks
The All-Star break all of a sudden looks more and more like something the Dodgers need, as they suffered a second blowout loss to the Arizona Diamondbacks in as many nights, 9-2 on Saturday night at Dodger Stadium. Simply losing consecutive games has been rare for the Dodgers, as this marked just their second two-game […]
A single rare meteorite has revealed the chemical fingerprint of a Moon-sized world that once orbited the young Sun before being destroyed in a catastrophic collision — a lost planet science never knew existed until it landed as a rock
A one-pound rock found in the Sahara in 2019 has become evidence for something much larger than itself: a vanished planetary body from the first years of the
World Cup politics: something ugly in the beautiful game
Football at the highest level is no stranger to controversy, and World Cup tournaments are not immune to political intervention. Still, 2026 is proving to be much more than a talking point
Arts Fest 2026 Saturday event, entertainment lineup
With dozens of performances ranging from young violin and cello students to a Latin music sextet, there’s something for everyone at day four of the 60th annual Central Pennsylvania Festival
Community Focus: ReVersed Threads and the RI Small Business Village
If you’re looking for something unique to do this weekend, there’s a great opportunity to support to support local artisans and entrepreneurs.
Las Vegas Summer Entertainment Is Stacked! Fireworks, Concerts & More
Las Vegas has something for everyone this summer from weekend fireworks in July to concerts and comedy!
Motorola has the chance to do something special with the Edge 70 Max, so why am I skeptical?
Following the Signature, Razr Fold, and Edge (2026), Motorola is preparing to release yet another very promising device... that's unlikely to ever achieve its true potential.
Are We Moneyballing The Goalies?
Is the Actual Plan a Trio, or is Something Else Out There?
SpaceX stock in focus as launch, Starlink business hit new milestones
SpaceX (SPCX) stock was in focus on Thursday after the company hit two major launch milestones, offering investors something positive to latch onto following a rough patch for the stock.
Russia heads to sports court to overturn its ban from international track and field
Russia's track and field federation says it has gone to the Court of Arbitration for Sport to overturn a World Athletics ruling suspending its athletes from international events due to the war in Ukraine. World Athletics excluded all athletes from Russia and its ally Belarus from its international events in March 2022, days after Russian forces invaded Ukraine. Since then, the International Olympic Committee has eased its restrictions on Russia ahead of the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics — something the Kremlin hailed as an “important step” — and recommended other sports bodies do the same.
Google Photos just ditched its clunky bottom bar for something way cleaner
Rolling out now
Google Photos adds a new AI 'Video Remix' tool
The feature can do things like apply cinematic relighting to brighten up a dark clip, swap out a plain background for something fun, or add artistic styles to videos.
Through the teargas, I saw something missing from German politics for too long: hope
I joined thousands of people blockading the AfD’s congress. A civil disobedience movement is showing how to beat the far right, says the journalist Scott Roxborough
Hungary moves to overhaul university models banned from Horizon Europe
Hungary’s new government is aiming to overhaul the governance model of the institutions and universities that lost access to Horizon Europe and Erasmus+ funds “in a short timeframe,” according to Péter Horváth, the new state secretary for science policy and innovation. “As of today, the two non-university foundation-controlled institutions under my remit have been transformed,” he told Science|Business. “We hope the universities will follow and that this will be enough to satisfy the EU’s demands.”Under the previous government, led by Viktor Orbán and his Fidesz party, many academic and scientific institutions were restructured and made into special public trust foundations, with members strongly linked to the government given lifelong mandates and significant decision-making powers with little oversight. The European Commission deemed that this undermined academic freedom and transparency in the country, leading to a ban on 34 institutions in 2022, including 21 universities, which saw academics in Hungary lose access to Horizon Europe grants. The new Hungarian government, elected in May and led by Péter Magyar and his Tisza Party, has promised to dismantle this governance model and restore the institutions to EU programmes. As a result, the European Commission has promised to return access to the Erasmus+ education mobility programme, but so far no concrete agreement has been made on the Horizon Europe programme for research and innovation. Hungary has already made legislative changes in June to allow the institutions to be reformed and set a timeline for the implementation.The non-university foundations, which are mainly cultural centres such as the Foundation for Hungarian Culture or the Makovecz Campus Foundation, will all be dissolved by August 31 this year, a date tied to EU-set milestones that Hungary must meet to unlock frozen funds, with control transferred to relevant ministries. Meanwhile, the universities will have until 31 August 2027. For each university foundation, the government will set the dissolution date and the body to take over operations. There is no final decision on a permanent new model for the universities, according to Hungarian MEP Eszter Lakos, who is shadow rapporteur for the Horizon Europe specific programme, a separate piece of legislation detailing implementation rules for the EU’s next research programme, due to start in 2028. “The aim of the transition year is to settle this with [the universities], not to impose a model, and not to put them under state control,” she told Science|Business. “The goal is to give academic independence back to universities.”There are three models that are most likely to be implemented. One would be a return to a traditional, state-run model. Another could be a newer, more self-standing public institution. A third option would be a reformed version of the foundation models that meet EU standards. According to Lakos, the dismantling of the system put in place by the Orbán government is well underway and if all goes according to plan, Hungary could regain access to EU research money by the start of the next academic year in 2027. “I believe that the Hungarian government is doing the necessary changes so the universities could return as beneficiaries to Horizon from the next school year,” she said. In the meantime, “the universities, institutes and cultural assets carry on under proper public stewardship rather than a handful of unaccountable trustees,” said Lakos. The laws passed in June impose new safeguards: board terms are capped at four years and renewable only once, appointments are made through open competitions and sitting politicians cannot join joining these boards.It remains unclear whether a domestic science funding programme set up as a back-up scheme by the former government following the EU funding ban, called HU-rizon, could be continued. “This programme should never have had to have been established in the first place, but it has proven to be quite popular,” he said. “I am considering continuing this programme with a refined focus on helping international collaborations.”Re-organising the research network One of the first priorities for Horváth and his cabinet is to resolve questions over the future of the Hungarian Research Network, Hun-Ren. The network of academic institutes was taken away from the Hungarian Academy of Sciences in 2019 and turned into a quasi-private organisation, with similarities in its governance to the public trust foundations.Horváth and his team have consulted over 5,000 representatives from the network and the conclusion is broad unhappiness with the directors of all the institutes involved. “We have presented the results to the president and the chief executive of the network and this is currently being discussed,” Horváth said. The plan is to re-integrate the network back into the Academy of Sciences but in an improved way, “learning from mistakes of the past,” he added. The government also wants to reintegrate four humanities and social science research centres into the network that the previous government had transferred to Eötvös Loránd University. The transfer brought sharp criticism from the academic community, with a group of Hungarian research heads, including European Research Council grant recipients, sending an open letter to Orbán warning that the transfer would “cause historically significant harm to the entirety of Hungarian scientific life.” The transfer was “one of the biggest shames in Hungarian research in the past 20 years,” Horváth said. “We want to immediately re-integrate them back into the research network and to regain the trust of these institutions, because the way they were treated was really unfair.”Another pressing issue is the Élvonal Excellence Research and Talent Development Foundation, led by Nobel laureate Ferenc Krausz. The foundation signed a financing agreement with the former government earlier this year for a budget of over €730 million over the next five years. The goal is to create a world-class centre to attract top talent from abroad and to develop local researchers. But there was little transparency about this foundation, and news of its huge budget, which is nearly as much as Hungary’s entire research budget, caused a stir in the media following the recent elections. Another issue is that, as with the foundation boards of the institutes banned from Horizon Europe, there was little-to-no oversight of decisions led by Krausz. “It was an excellent idea but an unacceptable execution,” Horváth said of the foundation. “The fact that this is out of the Hungarian funding scheme, mostly concentrating on one person who decides on the budget is unacceptable for us.”The government plans to merge the centre with the National Research, Development and Innovation Office, the country’s R&D funding agency, with a reduced budget. Horváth is hopeful that Krausz will still be involved. The new government’s R&D goalsA phrase that crops up regularly during the discussion with Horváth is “democratic process.” The new state secretary is determined to involve Hungary’s research community in shaping future policies. This marks a departure from the previous government’s approach, and several people in Hungary’s research community have commented on the openness of the new government. In terms of concrete goals, Horváth and his team already have plans. He wants to create a new science fund in Hungary, based on the best practices of other European countries. The fund would not be tied to annual government budgets and would provide long-term, stable financing. “If we were to succeed in creating this fund, then I think it would be one of the biggest achievements for me in this period of government,” Horváth said. On the innovation side, he is looking into how best to bring in the private sector. “We want to make sure that we are working with the private sector to support innovation,” Horváth said. One of his big aims is to introduce entrepreneurship teaching into high schools. Hungary already has a reputable national academy offering research and innovation training in the field of natural sciences, and Horváth wants to expand this to all disciplines and across the whole country. “One of the main ways to elevate our innovative businesses is to teach our children to be innovative,” he said. “This will probably need ten years to pay off, but this is what we should do. Our aim is to make Hungary strong in our region, and this is what is needed.” Related articlesHungary’s Horizon Europe performance in numbersCommission unlocks Erasmus+ cash for Hungary, Horizon could be next‘Academic Huxit.’ Hungarian researchers speak out on impact of EU ban A more difficult task will be funding. The new government is aiming to increase research spending to 2% of the GDP by 2030, and then increase it to 3% in line with EU objectives. Currently, spending sits around 1.3%. But according to Horváth, the current budget, inherited from the previous government, is “heavily in the negative,” so any plans to increase research spending will have to start next year. Achieving 2% by 2030 already needs a big push, almost doubling the research budget. “This is something we’d definitely like to reach, and something I can see us achieving,” he said. “From the 2030s, I’d like to see an innovative generation growing up that can help us reach the 3% target.” Positivity in the new governmentDespite the many challenges facing Horváth and his team, the mood is positive. “It feels a bit like a start-up right now. Everyone is working 24/7, day and night, trying to do as much as they can. There is a lot of energy,” he said. It is a big change for the state secretary who, like many in his cabinet, is coming from a background in research or business, and not in politics. “Six weeks ago, I was sitting with my microscope and my research PhDs, so it’s been a big change for me,” said the computer scientist, who was previously the director of the Institute of Biochemistry at the Hun-Ren Biological Research Centre in Hungary and worked at the Institute for AI for Health at Helmholtz Munich. But he is relishing the task to transform the country’s R&D landscape. “We feel enormous support from the Hungarian people, but also from Europe,” he said. “We’ve received a lot of letters of support from around Europe. There is big trust there, and huge responsibility on our side. We want to get everything back on track, and there’s a lot to do.”
Overruling the voters before they even vote
By Chris Richardson There is something profoundly wrong with a legislature that sees a citizen-led constitutional amendment gaining momentum and responds not by making its case to the public, but by passing a law designed to neutralize it before voters ever cast a ballot. That is exactly what happened with House Bill 26-1430. Initiative 175 […]
Google's new Play terms reveal something most Android users never know
Ahead of its July 29 rollout, Google is giving users a preview of its updated Play Terms of Service that make several changes.
Elevance Health sues CMS in latest challenge to Medicare Advantage star rating methodology
The complaint accuses the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services of failing to properly recalculate its grades for Medicare Part C plans, something it promised to do in June.
Midjourney founder says AI coding leaves friends 'extremely drained'
Midjourney founder David Holz said the phenomenon "makes me feel like something is wrong, and also that there might be a big opportunity."
‘Big Brother’ announces a change to live feeds for season 28 and cast reveal timing
‘Big Brother’ announces a change to live feeds for season 28, as well as cast reveal timing via something called ‘Big Brother: Broveal.’
Engineers solved an airflow mystery hidden nearly a mile underground
Engineers at a deep underground research facility noticed something strange during major rainstorms: airflow underground sometimes reversed direction. Using new sensors and mathematical modeling, they found that water rushing down a shaft was effectively pushing air through the tunnels like a giant piston. The breakthrough explains a long-standing mystery and could help underground operations better predict and manage ventilation during storms and emergencies.
Scratching that bug bite might feel good at first but science explains why it’s a bad idea
You’ve likely heard it since childhood: Don’t scratch that bug bite or rash, you’ll make it worse. But why would something that feels so good be bad?
How Trump is turning NATO into a cash machine
The U.S. president has refashioned the alliance into something far different from its original intention.
Missing ‘something’? It might be Pilates
It’s impossible not to smile and take a deep refreshing breath when you walk into The Sunshine Studio. With its freshly painted white walls, new equipment and the sun mural on the studio’s matt-room wall, the 1,500 square-foot space is as i…
Heavy Periods? Signs It Could Be Uterine Fibroids
Signs of fibroids can be easy to dismiss or mistake for something else. Here’s what to watch for and when to talk to your doctor.
This toad exists only in Canada—and scientists have finally discovered why
Scientists have identified something that may be even more uniquely Canadian than the beaver or moose: a genetically distinct western toad population found only in Canada. The discovery, made by researchers from the University of Ottawa, points to a rare and previously unrecognized group of toads living in the Canadian Rockies and raises fresh questions about conservation, biodiversity, and how much wildlife still remains to be fully understood.
Pickle-flavored sparkling water is here: review by lifelong pickle fan
From prebiotic soda to bone broth hot chocolate, we've been going through something of a beverage renaissance lately. Enter pickle-flavored sparkling water.
America held a big birthday party — and a soccer extravaganza broke out
The game the rest of the world knows as football is teaching America something about itself on its 250th birthday and reminding foreigners that the nation is far more welcoming and complex than its bitter political caricature.
Long Reads for the Long Weekend
(Welcome to the Entertainment Strategy Guy, a newsletter on the entertainment industry and business strategy. I write a weekly Streaming Ratings Report and a bi-weekly strategy column, along with occasional deep dives into other topics, like today’s article. Please subscribe.) Happy Fourth of July weekend! As has been a tradition of mine going back to the beginning of the EntStrategyGuy website, I’m sharing my favorite long reads of the last year, like I did in 2019, 2020, 2021, 2024, and 2025. Let’s dive right in! Subscribe “Different Prices for the Same Ride: How Uber and Lyft Use AI to Get More Money Out of You“ by Derek Kravitz in Consumer Reports I don’t think surveillance pricing, like the kind described in this brilliant Consumer Reports article, is long for the world—it’s toxically unpopular—but we’ll see if either party takes on this issue. If I ran a political party focused on affordability, I would focus on a few pro-consumer and pro-market policies: Banning non-compete agreements. Ending surveillance pricing Eliminating junk fees (read more here...) Ensuring “right to repair” for consumer (and military!) products Capping excessive app store fees Stopping digital/algorithmic price-fixing tools. Preventing automatic subscription price increases. And more. If you want to fight inflation, there are a lot of great ways to do it quickly. Speaking of higher prices... “Secret Documents Show Pepsi and Walmart Colluded to Raise Food Prices Across the Economy“ by Matt Stoller in BIG Again, I think a political party should focus on lowering prices for consumers. And deals like this—Walmart making a deal/forcing Pepsi to offer the lowest prices at its stores and nowhere else—hypothetically lower prices at Walmart...but raise them everywhere else. “15 DUIs, still driving: California’s failure to take repeat drunk drivers off the road“ by Robert Lewis and Lauren Hepler in CalMatters CalMatters does terrific reporting in California, something the Golden State desperately needs more of, and this article is a great example of that. “PugLips: The next insanely popular thing you’ve never heard of…” by Simon Carless in Game Discover Co I thought that this parody article (and yes, it’s a parody, but I was definitely unsure at first) was hilarious and totally nailed how much tech/business journalism feels these days. Actually, three of my favorite articles this year were on hype in the video game industry, including Georg Zoller’s “The Video Game Industries Very Dark Night”—which I linked to recently and wrote a follow-up here—and Owen Mahoney’s “Derek Zoolander, Videogame Exec”. In particular, I like Mahoney’s focus on user experience as a guide to what trends will actually grab hold of customers. “The Matrix Lies“ by Evan Shapiro in Media War & Peace Evan Shapiro’s first person account of his experience with AI was hilarious. I think LLMs capabilities have significantly grown from last summer, and yet...my editor/researcher just had an abysmal experience using an LLM to do a quite basic task (which our LLM normally does each week) and the LLM made a mistake on every single data entry...along with seven different mistakes affecting twelve of the twenty or so entries, including mistakes that are explicitly spelled out in the prompt. That’s a brutal failure rate. Again, if you use AI/LLM for data collection, you need to take a lot of extra steps to verify and check the data. “Ghosts in the Balcony: A Cross-Country Trip to 58 Theaters Fighting to Survive“ by Matthew Frank in The Ankler I thought Matthew Frank’s pitch to head across America to visit theaters sounded insane aggressive at the time—at least it felt that way to someone a decade older than him; man, to be in your twenties again, am I right?—but I knew the result would be great. And it was, a terrific feature by a great young writer. Also, I loved Matthew’s recent article on who’s getting the precious few entry level jobs in Hollywood. (Hint: nepotism.) “Disney erased FiveThirtyEight“ and “Did Las Vegas get too greedy?” by Nate Silver in Silver Bulletin I love media history and analysis, and there’s no one better to get the history of FiveThirtyEight than from Nate Silver, who wrote about his personal experience in one of my favorite pieces from this year. I also loved Nate’s breakdown of what’s causing Vegas’ woes, but I’ll offer one criticism, summarized as “Might I suggest antitrust?” Many centrists/center-right/libertarian thinkers (Nate is self-described as the latter) often don’t consider consolidation or antitrust as factors in policy issues like housing, America’s military readiness, or, in this case, Las Vegas. Even if libertarians want to debunk antitrust/consolidation concerns, I’d love to read that debunking. In this case, Vegas is incredibly consolidated (though it also has been for a long time) and I’d have loved to read Nate at least contending with this factor, since he addresses almost every other potential factor for Vegas’ decline. “Why Microsoft’s Carbon Removal Pullback Is Such a Big Deal“ by Robinson Meyer in Heatmap News I’m a big supporter of carbon removal efforts, but this nascent industry faces a lot of headwinds, including this big move most recently. I think it’s clear that solar panels and batteries should be able to get the world to its carbon footprint goals, but effective carbon renewal remains necessary to prevent the worst impacts of global warming. “AI is killing the cheap smartphone“ by David Oks LLMs and AI will impact the world in ways we’re not ready for, and already, third world countries are seeing the prices of cheap cellphones skyrocket due to the cost of chips skyrocketing. This article by David Oks is a terrific breakdown. “100 Days of Madness: Netflix, Paramount, Warner and the Future of Hollywood“ by Wade Major at Hollywood Heretic Wade Major dove deep into Hollywood/streaming’s financials in this must read piece. Not that I agree with everything in this article (read my take on Warner Bros./Paramount here) but the analysis is top notch. I think many people discount how quality thinking, regardless of the argument/conclusion, will make you a better thinker. “Erased by the UFC: Frank Shamrock, The MMA GOAT of the 20th Century“ by Nate Wilcox in The MMA Draw Newsletter Growing up playing the UFC fighting game on the Dreamcast, Frank Shamrock was my favorite MMA fighter, and this history/tribute to him was great. Other Fun Reads “The Hardest Part Of History To Tell Is How It Felt“ by Craig Fehrman at Defector “Unmasking the Sea Star Killer“ by Craig Welch at bioGraphic “What Could Save the Industry? Fin-Syn“ by Richard Rushfield in The Ankler Alex Rollins Berg in Underexposed on movie bumpers, pillow shots, Disney trash cinema, cult films, and Casablanca. David H. Montgomery in YouGov’s The Surveyor on punctuation marks, condiments, dinosaurs, and comic strips and kids media. “How Medium finally pivoted its way to profitability“ and “Why the best journalists on YouTube are all former Vox employees“ by Simon Owens in Simon Owens’s Media Newsletter “It’s Not Just You, Netflix Shows Have Gotten Slightly Shorter: Here’s What the Data Says“ by Kasey Moore at What’s on Netflix “Numlock Awards: How Diane Warren became the biggest loser in Oscar history“ by Nathaniel Rakich and “Numlock Awards: The Oscar Bait era is over. The Oscar Chum era is here.” by Walt Hickey & Michael Domanico at Numlock Awards
Scientists discover giant fan-shaped structure beneath Antarctica's ice sheet: The hidden structure rewriting Earth's ancient history
For decades, Antarctica has been treated as a kind of frozen time capsule, a place where evidence of Earth's deep past sits preserved, undisturbed, beneath layers of ice that have built up over millions of years. As per the study published in Nature Geoscience, scientists have now uncovered something remarkable within that buried record: an enormous, fan-shaped geological structure stretching across a huge swath of East Antarctica, hidden entirely from view beneath the ice.
Final Fantasy VII Revelation Store Page Lists Multiple DLC And 'Story Expansion'
Placeholders or something more?
Something Is Going On With Mitch McConnell’s Health, and His Office Is Keeping Mighty Quiet About It
McConnell checked into a hospital last month. We don’t know why.
Women & Business Profile: Gabrielle Morella
"The best business advice I've ever received is that relationships are everything." For Gabrielle Morella, the practice of law is built on something
Samsung is upgrading your Galaxy Watch, even if it might seem like something's missing
Samsung is removing the Vascular Load feature from Galaxy Watch devices in the US, but there's new feature replacing it.
Opinion | The Transgender Sports Decision Was About Something Deeper Than Law
It’s never just a game.
Takeaways from a divisive Supreme Court term that expanded Trump’s power
After berating the Supreme Court for much of the year — while simultaneously inviting some of the justices over to the White House for dinner — President Donald Trump’s final assessment of the court’s momentous term this week felt something like a ceasefire.
Liverpool feeling full weight of massive Mo Salah regret
Liverpool have an enormous Mohamed Salah regret. They're now feeling the full weight of it.Mohamed Salah left Liverpool this summer. The Egyptian is no longer a Red and will find a new club, something...
A Nation Larger Than Its Politics
As America approaches its 250th birthday, I find myself wondering whether we have lost sight of something that earlier generations understood instinctively.Americans have never agreed on politics.We have argued over wars, taxes, immigration, religion, civil rights, economic policy, and the proper ro...
Alex Karp says AI models are 'irresponsibly oversold'
Palantir CEO Alex Karp said that "something has gone completely wrong" in the AI market. "The enterprises are just tired of it," he said.
Congressman Tom Kean’s hospital treatment for depression may encourage men’s mental health
When a Republican, male politician spoke publicly about a leave he took to get help for his depression, the US saw something uncommon and needed, experts say.
Weak hands and blurry vision: Are you getting a 'phone body'?
Your devices are changing your body in ways you might not realise. It's not too late to do something about it.
Samsung hints the Galaxy Ring 2 could do something no Galaxy wearable has done before
A senior Samsung executive has revealed that the next-generation Galaxy Ring will bring a promising compatibility upgrade.
Simon Says... Buy This OpenAI Mechanical Keyboard Thingy
It's a collaboration between OpenAI and Work Louder. It does something or other with Codex.
Woman says popular oil change business left her engine in the backseat
“What they pulled out of my car looks like something from a sci-fi movie.”
UNC sports give you the chance to be a part of something bigger
"The more I thought about it, the more I realized how deeply sports are woven into the culture of this university. Being a UNC student means inheriting a lifetime of 'we get to’s' through sports."
Supreme Court won't revive Alan Dershowitz's $300 million suit against CNN
Dershowitz had urged the court to reconsider New York Times Co. v. Sullivan. The landmark First Amendment case that made it harder for public figures to win libel lawsuits because it requires proof that an outlet knowingly published something false, or showed a reckless disregard for the truth.
Wendy Schmidt: Three centuries of science is something to celebrate
George Washington Died Not Knowing Dinosaurs Existed. Three Centuries Later, Science Has Never Needed More Defense.
Wendy Schmidt: Three centuries of science is something to celebrate
George Washington Died Not Knowing Dinosaurs Existed. Three Centuries Later, Science Has Never Needed More Defense.
Something Is Very Wrong with Modern Longevity Science
A new book argues that many of the world’s oldest people aren’t so old after all.
Orlando Magic Have Something to Prove After Latest Power Rankings
New head coach Sean Sweeney faces immense pressure to transform Orlando's talented core into postseason contenders and silence doubters following a mediocre mid-pack ranking and trade rumors.
Lux and Samira announced for 2XKO
After the finals for 2XKO at Evo 2026 today, the developers decided to treat us to something special — namely a full reveal of the remaining characters for the game's first season.It was shown that Lux, the Lady of ...
AI As Conscious As That Toy Bird Is Thirsty
OpenAI and the like are using our fantasies about technology to bilk investors, if we want to protect the public we need to establish the difference consciousness and something mimicking it
Scratching bug bites feels good – but science says don’t do it
You’ve likely heard it since childhood: Don’t scratch that bug bite or rash, you’ll make it worse. But why would something that feels so good be bad?
Gunnar gives back: O's shortstop surprises local kid with specialized cleats
BALTIMORE -- The story of 11-year-old Declan Lefevre’s youth baseball career is inspirational. When Declan was about 4 years old, a doctor noticed his legs were different lengths. And it wasn’t something he would grow out of, either, which is something his parents -- father Jeff Lefevre and mother Nichole
Scratching that bug bite might feel good at first but science explains why it's a bad idea
You've likely heard it since childhood: Don't scratch that bug bite or rash, you'll make it worse. But why would something that feels so good be bad?
Amazon Prime Day Is Over, but Our Editors Found 131+ Best Deals Still Live
We don’t know how long these discounts will last, so if something catches your eye, add to cart and checkout ASAP.
Maliq Brown Arrives In San Antonio & Finds Something Familiar
Brown is in a great situation, but it should also seem familiar
Yellowstone’s supervolcano may be fueled by something unexpected
Scientists have uncovered a new explanation for what powers Yellowstone and other supervolcanoes. Instead of a deep plume rising from near Earth’s core, a broad “mantle wind” may push hot rock beneath Yellowstone, generating magma closer to the surface. This process helps create a massive underground magma network and may explain how supervolcanoes remain active for long periods.
Scratching that bug bite might feel good at first but science explains why it’s a bad idea
WASHINGTON (AP) — You’ve likely heard it since childhood: Don’t scratch that bug bite or rash, you’ll make it worse. But why would something that feels so good be bad? A lot of things can cause itc…
Stenberg Excited To Join Sharks, Believes He’s NHL-Ready
Ivar Stenberg says he is ready to be in the NHL next season. After being drafted No. 2 overall by the San Jose Sharks, he becomes yet another another big-name, highly-skilled player in their under-23 group. “They have something really good going on, so super happy to join a special group,” Stenberg said. The 5-foot-11 […] The post Stenberg Excited To Join Sharks, Believes He’s NHL-Ready appeared first on San Jose Hockey Now.
His Fortune’s From the Trash Business. His Basquiats Are Priceless.
In the last few years, waste-management billionaire Patrick Dovigi has become one of the biggest art collectors on the scene. But he’s still under the radar—maybe the shots fired on his home have something to do with that.
Making Our Own Luck
We are cross-posting a piece that former NIH official Kris Willis wrote for Macroscience. Kris is now the President and Founder of the Woodley Park Institute, for which I’m a board member. Picking winners or hedging bets? Federal science agencies have long wrestled with the question of how to ensure their billions of dollars of grants and contracts result in maximum benefits for Americans. On the surface, it might seem that a goal-oriented, interventionist style of management would be the best policy: prioritize our most pressing problems and distribute funding accordingly.This top-down strategy creates a unique hazard, though: bad choices can send resources in the wrong direction, resulting in slow progress that impedes the delivery of tangible benefits to citizens. Moreover, if decision makers pursue an applied advance when the underlying scientific principles remain poorly understood, they risk costly failures and a loss of support for the research enterprise at large. Examples include Nixon’s 1971 War on Cancer, undertaken on the premise that a cure could be achieved in less than a decade, the drive to build an operational commercial fusion plant by the mid-1990s, and the National Plan to Address Alzheimer’s Disease, which failed to produce the effective treatments and prevention strategies promised by 2025. The contrasting laissez-faire approach is to hedge your bets. If the path to an advance is impossible to predict, then the wisest choice might be to distribute funding to as widely as possible. The main risk of this strategy is that spreading funding thinly may limit the resources available to the most promising research, resulting in the same negative outcomes as the interventionist approach: limited support for the most promising topics, slow progress, and delayed returns. In reality, at science agencies like the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health, program managers navigate between these two extremes, setting some funds aside to target high-priority areas and using the rest to cover the widest possible range of meritorious proposals. This middle path seems like the most rational way to proceed, but it still requires making choices. How much should be set aside for high priority topics? What should those topics be? How should we define merit? Expert opinion can provide a helpful guide, but leading experts can have remarkably different opinions about what matters and what should be prioritized. Moreover, experts and administrators alike can be risk averse, giving an edge to high-profile, well-established concepts. What’s really needed is a data-driven framework to help guide decision-making, one that doesn’t simply repackage prestige or incumbency. Recognizing breakthroughs years in advance Many breakthroughs fail to attract funding or recognition at the earliest stages of development. Katalin Karikó, for example, spent years struggling to win grants for work on mRNA that would eventually win her and Drew Weissman a Nobel Prize. Similar stories can be told about Jim Allison’s groundbreaking studies leading to the development of cancer immunotherapy, Stan Pruisner’s demonstration that prions can self-replicate without DNA, or Robin Warren and Barry Marshall’s proof that Helicobacter pylori, not stress, causes ulcers. Yet at some point, the scientific community recognizes and responds to transformative breakthroughs like these. How does that change happen? And what if science funders could identify the areas that are on the cusp of a breakthrough? Those questions led my collaborators and me to study how scientists responded to past breakthroughs. Based on patterns in that data, we developed a means of predicting future breakthroughs, using biomedicine as a proof of concept. It’s worth taking a moment to describe how our approach works. Briefly, our prediction process begins by grouping the 18 million or so peer-reviewed papers in PubMed, the authoritative database of biomedical research, into roughly 50,000 unique topics. A small subset of these topics are so widely acclaimed as breakthroughs that they have been recognized with a major prize like a Nobel or a Lasker Award. We theorized that studying the development of these outliers over time, especially before they gained acclaim, was the key to identifying future instances of them. After defining topics, we chose 21 representative breakthroughs and asked what they looked like before they won prestigious prizes. To answer that question, we re-ran our topic-mapping algorithm repeatedly, winding back the clock one year each time, stringing together the years to follow the progress of each field as it grew and advanced. We found that in each case, the years leading up to a discovery followed a pattern: a burst of papers on a new, rapidly evolving topic, many of which quickly became influential. These characteristics—the percent of papers that are new, the percentage of papers that are brought in from other topics, and the influence of each individual paper—can all be measured separately for any given topic. Together, they act as a predictive signal that is detectable an average of five years before a transformative discovery is made, and up to thirty years before the discovery receives a major prize. Scanning the current research landscape for topics that display this signal allows us to predict what work will likely produce a future breakthrough. Each year we analyzed includes four or five signals, a number that appears to have remained constant across a twenty year time frame. In their classic work on the sociology of science, Bruno Latour and Steve Woolgar established that the desire to participate in a major discovery is an important motivator for scientists as they consider whether they should take up (or abandon) a research problem. Although further work is needed, the simplest explanation for our results is that this behavior is widespread enough to detect at scale. A foundational advance, or something like it, draws the attention of scientists and causes them to change the direction of their research. They vote with their feet, staking their own reputation and careers by publishing on and citing the new idea. That upswell of interest is the foundation of our breakthrough signal. What kind of research does our model identify as a breakthrough? After building a model based on the patterns in our 21 preselected breakthroughs, we tested it by identifying all early signals of discovery from 1994 through 1997. Of the 18 signals we found in that time period, 17 can be traced forward in time to a breakthrough. Examples include super-resolution fluorescence microscopy (see the image above), the directed evolution of proteins and enzymes (Chemistry Nobel, 2018), and sequencing the human genome (National Medal of Science, 2008). The discovery of the role of leptin signaling in obesity is a particularly interesting case study. Around 1950, scientists noticed the existence of a type of lab mouse that suffered from a unique inherited form of obesity. When given the freedom to choose their own diet, these mice ate more than normal and preferred food that was high in fat. Researchers had few clues as to why the animals overate; early experiments pointed to the existence of a soluble ob factor found circulating in the bloodstream that regulated appetite, but its identity was unknown. In 1994, Jeffrey Friedman and colleagues identified and sequenced the ob gene, noting that the protein it encoded appeared to fit the profile of a circulating factor. A year later, a trio of high-profile publications demonstrated that ob was a hormone that regulated body weight and fat deposition by regulating appetite. One of these was co-authored by Friedman, who christened it leptin from the ancient Greek word for thin. Using our model, the data from 1996 make it clear this advance would become a breakthrough. Scientists had flocked to study the biology of the new hormone, generating the flurry of new papers and citations required to produce a signal. One of these demonstrated that serum leptin concentrations reflected the amount of adipose tissue in the human body, providing clinical validation of the earlier mouse studies. Before the identification of leptin, scientists were unable to point to a specific molecule that controlled appetite and adiposity, so that it was impossible to rule out non-physiological causes of obesity; its characterization fundamentally changed our concept of weight gain. In 2010, Friedman and fellow pioneer Douglas Coleman were awarded a Lasker for the discovery. Our work also identifies breakthroughs in clinical practice and behavioral and social sciences, even though these areas are less likely to draw the attention of major prize committees. One example that falls into this category is the introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair, a minimally invasive surgical procedure for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm, a leading cause of death among Americans over the age of 65. Relative to the previous standard of care, it reduces in-hospital mortality by almost four-fold. In 2017, Timothy Chuter received the American College of Surgeons’ prestigious Jacobsen Innovation award for his multiple refinements to the technique. Another under-recognized breakthrough identified by our model is the development of standardized survey instruments to assess the quality of life for HIV+ patients. The antiretroviral cocktails introduced in the mid-1990s reduced AIDS mortality, but treatment came with serious side effects. The new evaluations showed that patients whose disease progressed had worse physical functioning than Americans with other chronic diseases, while those who were asymptomatic maintained a health-related quality of life on par with the overall US population. This evidence made it possible for patients and activists to argue that even in the absence of a total cure, and in spite of the side effects, alleviation of symptoms was a worthwhile priority for clinicians. My colleagues and I have failed to identify any significant recognition for the physicians and health policy experts who pioneered this advance, although in 2016, researchers called for the World Health Organization to set targets for good health-related quality of life as part of its framework to end the AIDS pandemic. From forecasting to funding How should science funders use our predictions? Any serious discussion of what we should do with this new capability needs to begin with an understanding of its limitations. We can’t (and shouldn’t) invest all of our resources in the small number of topics predicted to produce breakthroughs. Innovative new fields are born from existing ones; they rarely arise de novo. If funders don’t maintain a diverse portfolio, the breakthroughs of tomorrow will have no antecedents. Think of this as eating the seed corn, or killing the goose that lays the golden egg. There are also multiple goals of funding beyond basic scientific discovery, including translating discoveries into clinical practice, developing new technologies, supporting economic development, and training new scientists. The investments needed to accomplish these goals are likely different from those required to support emerging breakthroughs. Finally, we must be aware that we may not capture every instance of a breakthrough. The concept is fuzzy, and not every significant discovery is recognized with a major award. Further, breakthroughs are rare, meaning that our dataset is, by necessity, small. This makes formal estimates of accuracy challenging. Although our overall success rate appears to be high, any one signal may turn out to be a false positive. We found one apparent example: the development of the third generation COX-2 inhibitors, Vioxx and Celebrex, which were much celebrated in the early 2000s as effective but non-addictive pain relievers, meets all the algorithmic criteria of a breakthrough. Five years after it received FDA approval, researchers demonstrated that Vioxx was associated with serious cardiovascular complications, and the manufacturer voluntarily pulled the drug from the market. Celebrex remains available, although like other NSAIDs, it carries an FDA warning for increased cardiovascular risk. Decision makers who were overly focused on the breakthrough potential of this research might have wasted substantial resources nurturing an area that ultimately proved to be a failure—but so would those who relied on expert opinion at the time. That said, the potential benefits of funding the next mRNA vaccine or cancer immunotherapy years earlier than we might have are large. When we can’t assume the outcome of an action, it’s worth conducting an experiment. Can targeted support for areas that are poised to produce a breakthrough increase the return on scientific investment without cannibalizing future advances? With the necessary administrative infrastructure in place, conducting this experiment would be straightforward. First, identify all the breakthrough signals between 2018 and 2023, select half at random, and commit to a decade of investment. For biomedicine, a six year window should yield about 30 topics with the potential to produce a breakthrough. Providing strong support to half of these might be accomplished for $300 million a year. That’s roughly half of the recent annual budget of the NIH Common Fund or around 20% of the fiscal year 2025 budget for ARPA-H. After five years, then again at ten, compare to see which group — the one that was actively managed, or the control — produced more breakthroughs, and on what timescale. Although we used biomedicine as an example, the same experiment could just as well be run for physics, materials science, or any other discipline. Any attempt to undertake such an experiment should keep three points top of mind. First, we can predict the topic of future breakthroughs, but the people and vision for how to move the work forward are still important. In practice, this means success requires active program managers with the expertise to develop the science and the authority to do so, including by recruiting investigators. Second, we would be wise to learn from the failures of past attempts to fund transformative research. High among these are funding modestly repackaged work, confusing the genuinely novel with the merely unfamiliar, and relying too much on incumbent investigators. All of these risks can be mitigated by thoroughly and intelligently integrating high quality data into portfolio management. Finally, we need to have patience. Even with strong funding support, producing a breakthrough takes time. If supporting breakthroughs is the best way to nurture the birth of new fields, we also need to accurately describe and properly manage the other two stages, so that we invest wisely throughout the productive lifetime of ideas and divest once they reach the point of diminishing returns. We would benefit from more study of all of these phases, especially the transition from one to another. More research could answer questions like: When does a breakthrough become an established field? How do the availability of funding, the size and characteristics of the available workforce, and the accumulation of evidence that disagrees with prevailing models affect a field’s decline? Exactly how do old ideas give birth to new ones, and can we speed up the process? The more we understand about the dynamics of scientific progress, the better we can maximize the odds that our curiosity leads to results. I’d call that finding a way to make our own luck.
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