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Winner and Loser of the Week in Florida politics
Taylor Hatch exits DCF, FPL customers get refunds, and Jay Collins has another brutal week.
UFC 329 Post-Fight Press Conference
Following tonight's UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 fights at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, the winners will answer questions from the media during the post-fight press conference. The fight card featured the return of former two-division champion Conor McGregor in the main event in a ...
ENTERTAINMENT: Mandolin legend set for Ozark Folk Center benefit
Mandolinist Sam Bush, a member of the Bluegrass Hall of Fame and three-time Grammy Award winner, performs with his band as headliners of a 7 p.m. concert Saturday in the Ozark Highlands Theater.
Watch Why Fox is ‘the most Disciplined’ Media Entertainment Company in the Streaming Era
Media veteran Michael Wolf discusses Allen & Company’s annual Sun Valley Conference and breaks down the mega deals that are reshaping the entertainment industry. He explains why free ad-supported content is the unsung winner of the streaming wars, and digs into the ways AI is changing the value of content.
Our readers chose their favorites in NKY arts and entertainment
From museums to live music, these are the Readers' Choice Awards winners in the arts and entertainment category.
BELGIUM KNOCKED OUT AFTER SPAIN'S LATE WINNER
Alexis Saelemaekers and Koni De Winter's 2026 World Cup journey comes to an end in the quarter-finals. Belgium, featuring the two Rossoneri, were beaten 2-1 by Spain, who secured their place in the se...
Thomasville artist series opens 89th season with Grammy winner
Season ticket packages are now available for Thomasville Entertainment Foundation’s 89th concert series opening in September with Heather Headley.
Rangers Announce Jacob deGrom Injury Update After Rough Outing
The Rangers provided a new injury update on Jacob deGrom after the two-time Cy Young Award winner exited following a rough outing. The post Rangers Announce Jacob deGrom Injury Update After Rough Outing appeared first on HEAVY.
“Survivor” winner Dee Valladares officially revealed as final “Big Brother” season 28 player
The reality TV champ was unveiled on “Big Brother: Unlocked”
Nobel Prize winner leaving UC Berkeley for new role in China
Omar Yaghi will lead an AI institute at Tsinghua University in Beijing.
10 scientists and experts who have left US and UK for China so far in 2026
From a Nobel Prize winner to the creator of the first plant ID app, here are some of the scientists and experts who made the move.
J.K. Simmons says he’s never met Tom Holland despite being in 2 of his “Spider-Man” movies
The Oscar winner has played J. Jonah Jameson to Holland’s Peter Parker.
Aramark Sports + Entertainment Announces Results of First-Ever MLB Fan Culinary Vote with ‘Betsy's Banana Ice Cream Sundae' to Debut during 2026 MLB All-Star Week
PHILADELPHIA (July 8, 2026) – As Major League Baseball fans flock to Philadelphia to celebrate the 2026 MLB All-Star Week, Aramark Sports + Entertainment (Aramark; NYSE: ARMK) announced the winner of the first-ever MLB fan culinary vote, an initiative that gave fans a direct role in shaping the food experience
Aramark Sports + Entertainment Announces Results of First-Ever MLB Fan Culinary Vote with ‘Betsy's Banana Ice Cream Sundae' to Debut during 2026 MLB All-Star Week
PHILADELPHIA (July 8, 2026) – As Major League Baseball fans flock to Philadelphia to celebrate the 2026 MLB All-Star Week, Aramark Sports + Entertainment (Aramark; NYSE: ARMK) announced the winner of the first-ever MLB fan culinary vote, an initiative that gave fans a direct role in shaping the food experience
How all 50 U.S. states performed over 20 years of Top States for Business
Across 20 years of CNBC's America's Top States for Business rankings, some states have proven to be consistent winners, and others to be perennial dogs.
ENTERTAINMENT: Home brewers to compete at museum’s Hop-Off
The competition for the best historic home-brew uses historical prompts and recipes as inspiration; adult visitors can sample the beers and vote for a People's Choice Award while a panel of beer enthusiasts chooses the winner of the Taster's Choice Award.
Restoring dignity: Senegalese surgeon and Burundian foundation win reproductive health awards
A Senegalese surgeon who has dedicated his career to restoring the health and dignity of women living with obstetric fistula, and a Burundian foundation supporting vulnerable women and children, have been named the winners of the 2026 United Nations Population Award.
Shopping for same groceries at Walmart, Kroger, Amazon: Winner, prices
I brought the same shopping list to Walmart, Kroger, and Amazon to see which has the best grocery prices, especially amid Walmart's rollbacks.
York, Hanover Community's Choice Awards winners celebrated
Businesses and organizations gathered Tuesday to celebrate the York and Hanover Community's Choice Awards winners at a gala in York.
2026 Emmy nominations: See the full list (updating live)
Emmy winners Liza Colón-Zayas and Jeff Hiller will reveal the Emmy nominations Wednesday, but two categories have already been announced — and there was a huge snub.
Academic Excellence Award Winner
Academic Excellence Award Winner Erin shares her experiences as a Public and Community Health Major, with double minors in Legal Studies and Health Policy and Management:"I came to Ithaca from the suburbs of Boston, Massachusetts knowing that I wanted an education that would allow me to change the world in a positive light. Admittedly, I was unaware when choosing the public health major just how much of an impact I could make, but through my experiences in this rigorous program, I know public health is where I am meant to be. Being a public health major during the COVID-19 pandemic was a unique experience. My education granted me the opportunity to work on and off campus with different populations to provide support during the pandemic. Professor Srijana Bajracharya was my professor for Research Methods in Health. She encouraged her class to create research projects that would benefit our communities. She was a mentor for me and helped me find my passion in research, which I have brought with me to my job as a research assistant for Rescue - The Behavior Change Agency. I thank Professor Bajracharya for her guidance and support throughout my time as a public health student."
Ascend Technology Group Named 2026 Business Excellence Award Winner by the Greater Omaha Chamber of Commerce
Omaha, Nebraska--(Newsfile Corp. - July 7, 2026) - Ascend Technology Group has been named a 2026 Business Excellence Award winner...
Should You Go All-in on AI Now — or Wait for the Dust to Settle? Here Are the Risks and Rewards of Each Path.
Now is the time to decide if your team will leverage emerging technology or wait for the winners of the race to become clearer. Both options present risks and rewards for your business.
Major League Baseball announces entertainment lineup for the 2026 All-Star Game in Philadelphia
Major League Baseball today announced the entertainment lineup for the 2026 MLB All-Star Game presented by Mastercard. Emmy, Grammy, Tony and Oscar winning artist Jennifer Hudson and GRAMMY winner Patti LaBelle will bookend the pregame festivities on Tuesday, July 14th, at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, delivering special musical performances.
‘The Odyssey’ star Matt Damon reveals strict diet choice that 'changed my life' after hidden health issues
Oscar winner Matt Damon says eliminating this from his diet changed his life after finding a food sensitivity during intense training for "The Odyssey."
I got ice-cream cake at Baskin-Robbins, Cold Stone, Dairy Queen: Winner
I purchased a custom ice-cream cake from chains Dairy Queen, Baskin-Robbins, and Cold Stone Creamery to find the best place to order from for a party.
Family's Eccleshall pride as superbike winner Storm Stacey spreads mental health message
Storm Stacey uses a top hat to start conversations about mental health, after his father's death.
The wildest World Cup game so far, plus more on Balogun’s return
The Pulse Newsletter 📣 | This is The Athletic’s daily sports newsletter. Sign up here to receive The Pulse directly in your inbox. Good morning! Park the bus today. Inside: 🏴 England’s unthinkable win Balogun returns 🎾 Osaka shocker Any weekend with World Cup knockout games ensures a compelling experience. But even outside of those — which were scintillating, to be clear — yesterday was a banner day for winners across the sports spectrum. Let’s simply rank them: 1. England, sheesh This was slotted at No. 2 until the match unfolded.
USA vs Belgium – Match preview and team news
Seattle Stadium stages a World Cup last-16 clash between the United States and Belgium on Monday night, with a quarter-final against Portugal or Spain awaiting the winner.Mauricio Pochettino’s side ...
NASCAR Race Today: Winners, Losers from eero 400 at Chicagoland
Neymar calls time on Brazil career after World Cup elimination
Brazil superstar Neymar indicated Sunday that his international career was over after the five-time World Cup winners went out of the tournament in the last 16 at the hands of Norway.That was his first international appearance since October 2023, but his only other appearance in the United States came Sunday against Norway. raa/mcd/as/rcw
World Cup a winner for local businesses
Bars like Olde Magoun's Saloon and Phoenix Landing have seen unprecedented sales. And businesses that aren't bars are also benefitting.
CVS Health Corporation (CVS) Shares Up Significantly After Jim Cramer Said He Was Looking For A Good Year
We recently published Jim Cramer’s Biggest Winners to Buy: Top 20 AI & Other Stocks He Got Right in 2026. CVS Health Corporation (NYSE:CVS) is one of the stocks discussed by Jim Cramer. Pharmaceutical retailer CVS Health Corporation (NYSE:CVS) has become one of Cramer’s top stocks in the sector. Throughout this year, the CNBC TV […]
GentleBrook to operate mobile Snapology franchise
GentleBrook has entered a franchise agreement with Unleased Brands to launch a mobile, Snapology-branded education program.
Diamondbacks and Brewers meet, winner claims 3-game series
The Arizona Diamondbacks and Milwaukee Brewers meet on Sunday with the winner claiming the three-game series
'She's Special': Harper’s Corner Wire-To-Wire Winner Of Schuylerville
Charles Bigg’s Harper’s Corner made every pole a winning one in Friday’s $200,000 Schuylerville (L), a six-furlong sprint for 2-year-old fillies on opening day at Saratoga Race Course. Trained by Cathal Lynch and piloted by Paco Lopez, the dark bay who became the first stakes winner for her sire, ...
Olivia Wilde says Jeff Bridges uses an unhinged technique before emotional scenes
The actress recalls her time working with the Oscar winner on "Tron: Legacy."
City Hall visit, packed entertainment slate highlight 2026 HBCU Swingman Classic schedule
Major League Baseball today announced the pregame and philanthropic details for the 2026 HBCU Swingman Classic presented by USA Baseball, highlighted by a team visit to City Hall, Philadelphia Mayor Cherelle L. Parker’s first pitch, uniform patches honoring HBCU legend Roger Cador and pregame entertainment by Grammy-Award winner Durand Bernarr
iPhone Photography Awards Highlight Best Images of 2026
For the last 19 years, the iPhone Photography Awards (IPPA) has selected the best photographs captured with an iPhone, and the 2026 award winners were announced today. The IPPA 2026 Grand Prize image features a volcano dramatically erupting in the Cayman Islands, with the photo shot by Robyn Jensen on an iPhone 15 Pro. The Gold Prize image by Gellért Gombai features two children napping on grass in the shadow of a badminton racket, with the photo shot in black and white using an iPhone X.
Check out all the winning shots in the 2026 iPhone Photography Awards
The iPhone Photography Awards competition has been running now for 19 years, and the 2026 winners have just been announced....
Smith Named CAA Leadership and Sports Excellence Award Winner for Swimming & Diving
RICHMOND, Va. - Drexel's Sebastian Smith has been named one of the 19 recipients of the prestigious CAA Leadership and Sport Excellence Award for the 2025-26...
2026 NHL free agency winners and losers from Day 1
The NHL's free agency window has opened and here are the biggest winners and losers from the opening day of signings.
Maryland-Bred Big Cuddle Joins Haskell Lineup
Pocket 3's Racing’s Big Cuddle will face his stiffest test yet in the $1 million, Grade 1 Haskell Stakes at Monmouth Park on July 18, the Daily Racing Form reports. The Haskell field is expected to draw Preakness winner Napoleon Solo and runner-up Iron Honor, as well as G3 Tampa Bay Derby ...
Johnny Manziel Unloads On Critics Of His 'Hate' For Cleveland
If you're going to insult Johnny Manziel, do it at your own risk. Back in the September of last year, Manziel ripped the Cleveland Browns while on Shannon Sharpe's “Nightcap” podcast. The former Heisman Trophy winner said he wanted the Browns to go 0-16 during the 2025 season. "I think I will ...
Berks LaunchBox announces winners of lifestyle business pitch competition
Three entrepreneurs took home prizes of up to $1,000 for their startups.
2026 Arts & Entertainment Winners
The 2026 Chronogram Readers' Choice Awards winners for arts and entertainment. The categories include annual events, art classes, dance classes, bands, radio shows, and more.
2026 Best of the 'Burgh Winners: Entertainment and Leisure
Activity Bar Pins Mechanical Co. Bed & Breakfast The Mansions On Fifth Luxury Hotel Boutique Hotel Kimpton Hotel Monaco Pittsburgh Camp for Kids
Colorado voters pick state Senate primary winners
Colorado voters on Tuesday night picked winners in the Republican and Democratic primaries in an election that will shape the contests in the general election later this year. The eventual winners will join the Colorado General Assembly in January 2026. Here are the results in key districts. Senate District 3 Colorado voters appear to be […]
Colorado primary election results: Melat Kiros leads Dianne DeGette in congressional race
Here are the early, unofficial results as of 7 p.m. • In the 1st Congressional District, challenger Melat Kiros is leading U.S. Rep. Diane DeGette, 47%-45% • In the U.S. Senate race, U.S. Sen. John Hickenlooper is leading challenger Julie Gonzales, 51%-49% Colorado voters head to the polls today to pick primary winners that will […]
Best of the Beehive: Art & Entertainment
Our 2026 Best of the Beehive Issue is here! ead on for all winners and finalists from the Arts & Entertainment category.
Marlee Matlin Signs With Gilbertson Entertainment (EXCLUSIVE)
Academy Award winner Marlee Matlin ('CODA') has inked with Gilbertson Entertainment for management.
Colorado voters head to the polls today — check here for regular updates
Colorado voters head to the polls today to pick primary winners that will vie for statewide offices in November, the result of which would determine the direction of the state in the coming years. At stake are the parties’ nominees for U.S. senator, governor, attorney general and several statewide offices, along with races for Congress […]
Nintendo Switch 2 Owners Face a New Hardware Lottery, as Upgraded LCD Revision Could Split Buyers Into Winners and Losers
A new Nintendo Switch 2 LCD panel leak points to a hardware revision potentially fixing the handheld's ghosting issues.
Predicting winners for NFL's remaining QB competitions: Who wins starting gigs?
Five NFL teams are set to enter training camp with quarterback competitions lingering. Who will emerge as QB1 in each battle?
Peptides are the latest US health craze. But what exactly are they?
While peptides are taking the health and wellness category by storm for various use cases, what exactly are they? Leerink Partners senior research analyst Michael Cherny helps break down what a peptides are, how people are choosing them for personal health and recovery reasons, and who the biggest winners in consumer pharmaceuticals could be if their popularity continues to grow.
VIDEO: Champion Immersive's Buddy System In The Paddock
Every winning horse race is a team effort, but some require more teammates than others. Ahead of last Saturday's Grade 2 Fleur de Lis Stakes, Eclipse Award winner Immersive was accompanied by outrider Lee Lockwood and his horse LM Jokester in the Churchill Downs paddock, providing the 4-year-old ...
2026 Best of 225 Awards: People & Entertainment
From best chef and best photographer to best live music venue and best performing arts group, here are the 2026 Best of 225 Award winners and runners-up in the people and entertainment category.
Gov. DeSantis' veto list marks winners and losers in the state budget
DeSantis' line item vetoes totaled $810M.
From The Sports Desk: Canada beats South Africa in World Cup knockout: Brazil vs. Japan preview
The knockout rounds of the World Cup began with a late winner from Canada as three more matches take place today.
Secret Alchemist, Sarelly and Borntostandout Are Among the Winners of The Business of Beauty Global Awards 2026
From emerging challengers to established disruptors, this year’s Global Awards winners are setting a new benchmark for beauty entrepreneurship.
Is this World Cup now Europe v South America? Which giants fall today? Day 18 recap
Sunday was the strangest day of this World Cup, in that there was only one match, sandwiched between days with six and three respectively. This was for scheduling reasons: no third-placed sides could have played on Sunday, given that the identity of the eight sides and their precise fixtures had only been decided on Saturday night. It would also have been impossible to organise fixtures between any other winners and runners-up while also giving them a reasonable — and relatively similar — number of days since their final group stage fixture. In the game that did happen, co-hosts Canada...
Reports: Diomande agrees PSG move from Leipzig
Ivory Coast forward Yan Diomande has decided to leave RB Leipzig for Paris Saint-Germain, according to media reports. Broadcasters Sky and RMC, as well as transfer specialist Fabrizio Romano, reported on Sunday that the 19-year-old has agreed a five-year contract with the French Champions League winners.
VSP Vision Announces Winner of Propel Student Business Challenge Scholarship
RANCHO CORDOVA, Calif.—VSP Vision, in collaboration with the Student Optometric Leadership Network (SOLN), today announced that Mason Martin, a student at the University of Alabama at Birmingham School of Optometry, is the winner of the 2026 Propel Student Business Challenge Scholarship, powered by PECAA. Martin, who was awarded the $10,000 scholarship and a travel grant to attend the SOLN conference in Denver, is the first first-year student at the school to receive this honor, the announcement said. VSP said his standout submission featured a thoughtful, patient-centered private practice business plan.
These Were the Biggest Losers of Vikings Offseason
The Minnesota Vikings had some vivid “winners” this offseason, including center Blake Brandel, who is on tap to start at […]
Lagos school emerges winner of 10th Edition of Tolaram Science Challenge
By Efe Onodjae Iwerekun Community Senior High School, Ibeju-Lekki, has emerged the winner of the 10th edition of Tolaram Science Challenge (TSC), marking their third consecutive win. The school triumphed over Magbon-Alade Senior Grammar School in a keenly contested grand finale of the competition. The Tolaram Science Challenge, sponsored by Lagos Free Zone, is an annual […]
Meaningful Outcomes Determine the Winners of the Health AI Race
Global investment in healthcare AI exceeded $18 billion in 2025, yet health systems still lack a shared understanding of the outcomes that investment should deliver. This paper argues that success in the health AI race will be determined not by technological sophistication but by which systems first identify and pursue the outcomes that matter most to patients, professionals and health systems. Without a shared language for defining and measuring what healthcare AI should deliver, systems risk optimizing for what is easiest to count rather than what matters most. This paper provides a framework for ensuring AI investment translates into real value for healthcare systems and the populations they serve.
Office Politics Has A Playbook. Here Is What Psychologists Know.
Office politics is a blood sport and the most talented people keep losing. Psychologists say three traits separate the winners from everyone else.
Winner and Loser of the Week in Florida politics
FDACS moves fast on the mealybug threat, while Ye's Tampa concerts proceed despite pushback.
Brad Paisley: Data center project near Nashville Zoo is 'a monstrosity'
14-time Country Music Award winner Brad Paisley is calling on Nashville to prevent the construction of a data center near the city's zoo.
Prediction market Kalshi sues Illinois over its push to regulate sports bets
Prediction market Kalshi — which offers trades on everything from the World Cup top goalscorers to the winners of the reality show Love Island and the 2028 Democratic primary — sued Illinois on Tuesday over its latest push to regulate sports bets on the platform.
The Best Diet For Brain Health Is Probably Not What You Think
There was one clear, standout winner.
George Clooney's wife Amal admits life was 'easier' before marrying the Oscar winner
George Clooney's wife Amal says life with the 'Ocean's 11' star is not always easy.
Carolina Reportedly Shopping Rookie Defenseman Alexander Nikishin
Stung by high contract demands and defensive inconsistencies, the Stanley Cup champions may trade their offensive blueliner to land a multi-time Vezina winner for the crease.
Barker reclaims title at National Road Championships
Megan Barker reclaims her British elite women's circuit race title as the second day of the National Road Championships produces its second Welsh winner.
Trump warns ‘godless communists’ will turn cities into slums as Dems fail to fight socialist surge
Trump calls Democratic socialist primary winners "godless communists" at Faith & Freedom Coalition, warning of threats to America's founding principles.
ECU Health announces 2026 Board Quality Leadership Award winners
ECU Health Board Quality Leadership Award winners were recognized for delivering exceptional experiences and advancing patient outcomes.
Cannes Lions Entertainment Awards: Adidas' Oasis Collab Wins Grand Prix
The 2026 Cannes Lions International Festival of Creativity winners across entertainment, design and craft categories were announced. Sports apparel and footwear maker Adidas' tie-up with English band Oasis winning the top prize in the Entertainment Lions category.
The Business of Beauty Global Awards 2026: Winners Announced
Wavy, Secret Alchemist, Sarelly, Dr. Diamond’s Metacine, Borntostandout and Suri are the winners of The Business of Beauty Global Awards 2026, honoured on Thursday at the Global Forum in Napa Valley, California.
TravelTech Show, Business Travel Show Europe name 2026 innovation award winners
Arcube, ImpersonAlly, Acai and Nowadays were recognized in separate competitions for travel technology innovations spanning airline retailing, brand protection, contact center automation and meetings management.
Making Our Own Luck
We are cross-posting a piece that former NIH official Kris Willis wrote for Macroscience. Kris is now the President and Founder of the Woodley Park Institute, for which I’m a board member. Picking winners or hedging bets? Federal science agencies have long wrestled with the question of how to ensure their billions of dollars of grants and contracts result in maximum benefits for Americans. On the surface, it might seem that a goal-oriented, interventionist style of management would be the best policy: prioritize our most pressing problems and distribute funding accordingly.This top-down strategy creates a unique hazard, though: bad choices can send resources in the wrong direction, resulting in slow progress that impedes the delivery of tangible benefits to citizens. Moreover, if decision makers pursue an applied advance when the underlying scientific principles remain poorly understood, they risk costly failures and a loss of support for the research enterprise at large. Examples include Nixon’s 1971 War on Cancer, undertaken on the premise that a cure could be achieved in less than a decade, the drive to build an operational commercial fusion plant by the mid-1990s, and the National Plan to Address Alzheimer’s Disease, which failed to produce the effective treatments and prevention strategies promised by 2025. The contrasting laissez-faire approach is to hedge your bets. If the path to an advance is impossible to predict, then the wisest choice might be to distribute funding to as widely as possible. The main risk of this strategy is that spreading funding thinly may limit the resources available to the most promising research, resulting in the same negative outcomes as the interventionist approach: limited support for the most promising topics, slow progress, and delayed returns. In reality, at science agencies like the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health, program managers navigate between these two extremes, setting some funds aside to target high-priority areas and using the rest to cover the widest possible range of meritorious proposals. This middle path seems like the most rational way to proceed, but it still requires making choices. How much should be set aside for high priority topics? What should those topics be? How should we define merit? Expert opinion can provide a helpful guide, but leading experts can have remarkably different opinions about what matters and what should be prioritized. Moreover, experts and administrators alike can be risk averse, giving an edge to high-profile, well-established concepts. What’s really needed is a data-driven framework to help guide decision-making, one that doesn’t simply repackage prestige or incumbency. Recognizing breakthroughs years in advance Many breakthroughs fail to attract funding or recognition at the earliest stages of development. Katalin Karikó, for example, spent years struggling to win grants for work on mRNA that would eventually win her and Drew Weissman a Nobel Prize. Similar stories can be told about Jim Allison’s groundbreaking studies leading to the development of cancer immunotherapy, Stan Pruisner’s demonstration that prions can self-replicate without DNA, or Robin Warren and Barry Marshall’s proof that Helicobacter pylori, not stress, causes ulcers. Yet at some point, the scientific community recognizes and responds to transformative breakthroughs like these. How does that change happen? And what if science funders could identify the areas that are on the cusp of a breakthrough? Those questions led my collaborators and me to study how scientists responded to past breakthroughs. Based on patterns in that data, we developed a means of predicting future breakthroughs, using biomedicine as a proof of concept. It’s worth taking a moment to describe how our approach works. Briefly, our prediction process begins by grouping the 18 million or so peer-reviewed papers in PubMed, the authoritative database of biomedical research, into roughly 50,000 unique topics. A small subset of these topics are so widely acclaimed as breakthroughs that they have been recognized with a major prize like a Nobel or a Lasker Award. We theorized that studying the development of these outliers over time, especially before they gained acclaim, was the key to identifying future instances of them. After defining topics, we chose 21 representative breakthroughs and asked what they looked like before they won prestigious prizes. To answer that question, we re-ran our topic-mapping algorithm repeatedly, winding back the clock one year each time, stringing together the years to follow the progress of each field as it grew and advanced. We found that in each case, the years leading up to a discovery followed a pattern: a burst of papers on a new, rapidly evolving topic, many of which quickly became influential. These characteristics—the percent of papers that are new, the percentage of papers that are brought in from other topics, and the influence of each individual paper—can all be measured separately for any given topic. Together, they act as a predictive signal that is detectable an average of five years before a transformative discovery is made, and up to thirty years before the discovery receives a major prize. Scanning the current research landscape for topics that display this signal allows us to predict what work will likely produce a future breakthrough. Each year we analyzed includes four or five signals, a number that appears to have remained constant across a twenty year time frame. In their classic work on the sociology of science, Bruno Latour and Steve Woolgar established that the desire to participate in a major discovery is an important motivator for scientists as they consider whether they should take up (or abandon) a research problem. Although further work is needed, the simplest explanation for our results is that this behavior is widespread enough to detect at scale. A foundational advance, or something like it, draws the attention of scientists and causes them to change the direction of their research. They vote with their feet, staking their own reputation and careers by publishing on and citing the new idea. That upswell of interest is the foundation of our breakthrough signal. What kind of research does our model identify as a breakthrough? After building a model based on the patterns in our 21 preselected breakthroughs, we tested it by identifying all early signals of discovery from 1994 through 1997. Of the 18 signals we found in that time period, 17 can be traced forward in time to a breakthrough. Examples include super-resolution fluorescence microscopy (see the image above), the directed evolution of proteins and enzymes (Chemistry Nobel, 2018), and sequencing the human genome (National Medal of Science, 2008). The discovery of the role of leptin signaling in obesity is a particularly interesting case study. Around 1950, scientists noticed the existence of a type of lab mouse that suffered from a unique inherited form of obesity. When given the freedom to choose their own diet, these mice ate more than normal and preferred food that was high in fat. Researchers had few clues as to why the animals overate; early experiments pointed to the existence of a soluble ob factor found circulating in the bloodstream that regulated appetite, but its identity was unknown. In 1994, Jeffrey Friedman and colleagues identified and sequenced the ob gene, noting that the protein it encoded appeared to fit the profile of a circulating factor. A year later, a trio of high-profile publications demonstrated that ob was a hormone that regulated body weight and fat deposition by regulating appetite. One of these was co-authored by Friedman, who christened it leptin from the ancient Greek word for thin. Using our model, the data from 1996 make it clear this advance would become a breakthrough. Scientists had flocked to study the biology of the new hormone, generating the flurry of new papers and citations required to produce a signal. One of these demonstrated that serum leptin concentrations reflected the amount of adipose tissue in the human body, providing clinical validation of the earlier mouse studies. Before the identification of leptin, scientists were unable to point to a specific molecule that controlled appetite and adiposity, so that it was impossible to rule out non-physiological causes of obesity; its characterization fundamentally changed our concept of weight gain. In 2010, Friedman and fellow pioneer Douglas Coleman were awarded a Lasker for the discovery. Our work also identifies breakthroughs in clinical practice and behavioral and social sciences, even though these areas are less likely to draw the attention of major prize committees. One example that falls into this category is the introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair, a minimally invasive surgical procedure for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm, a leading cause of death among Americans over the age of 65. Relative to the previous standard of care, it reduces in-hospital mortality by almost four-fold. In 2017, Timothy Chuter received the American College of Surgeons’ prestigious Jacobsen Innovation award for his multiple refinements to the technique. Another under-recognized breakthrough identified by our model is the development of standardized survey instruments to assess the quality of life for HIV+ patients. The antiretroviral cocktails introduced in the mid-1990s reduced AIDS mortality, but treatment came with serious side effects. The new evaluations showed that patients whose disease progressed had worse physical functioning than Americans with other chronic diseases, while those who were asymptomatic maintained a health-related quality of life on par with the overall US population. This evidence made it possible for patients and activists to argue that even in the absence of a total cure, and in spite of the side effects, alleviation of symptoms was a worthwhile priority for clinicians. My colleagues and I have failed to identify any significant recognition for the physicians and health policy experts who pioneered this advance, although in 2016, researchers called for the World Health Organization to set targets for good health-related quality of life as part of its framework to end the AIDS pandemic. From forecasting to funding How should science funders use our predictions? Any serious discussion of what we should do with this new capability needs to begin with an understanding of its limitations. We can’t (and shouldn’t) invest all of our resources in the small number of topics predicted to produce breakthroughs. Innovative new fields are born from existing ones; they rarely arise de novo. If funders don’t maintain a diverse portfolio, the breakthroughs of tomorrow will have no antecedents. Think of this as eating the seed corn, or killing the goose that lays the golden egg. There are also multiple goals of funding beyond basic scientific discovery, including translating discoveries into clinical practice, developing new technologies, supporting economic development, and training new scientists. The investments needed to accomplish these goals are likely different from those required to support emerging breakthroughs. Finally, we must be aware that we may not capture every instance of a breakthrough. The concept is fuzzy, and not every significant discovery is recognized with a major award. Further, breakthroughs are rare, meaning that our dataset is, by necessity, small. This makes formal estimates of accuracy challenging. Although our overall success rate appears to be high, any one signal may turn out to be a false positive. We found one apparent example: the development of the third generation COX-2 inhibitors, Vioxx and Celebrex, which were much celebrated in the early 2000s as effective but non-addictive pain relievers, meets all the algorithmic criteria of a breakthrough. Five years after it received FDA approval, researchers demonstrated that Vioxx was associated with serious cardiovascular complications, and the manufacturer voluntarily pulled the drug from the market. Celebrex remains available, although like other NSAIDs, it carries an FDA warning for increased cardiovascular risk. Decision makers who were overly focused on the breakthrough potential of this research might have wasted substantial resources nurturing an area that ultimately proved to be a failure—but so would those who relied on expert opinion at the time. That said, the potential benefits of funding the next mRNA vaccine or cancer immunotherapy years earlier than we might have are large. When we can’t assume the outcome of an action, it’s worth conducting an experiment. Can targeted support for areas that are poised to produce a breakthrough increase the return on scientific investment without cannibalizing future advances? With the necessary administrative infrastructure in place, conducting this experiment would be straightforward. First, identify all the breakthrough signals between 2018 and 2023, select half at random, and commit to a decade of investment. For biomedicine, a six year window should yield about 30 topics with the potential to produce a breakthrough. Providing strong support to half of these might be accomplished for $300 million a year. That’s roughly half of the recent annual budget of the NIH Common Fund or around 20% of the fiscal year 2025 budget for ARPA-H. After five years, then again at ten, compare to see which group — the one that was actively managed, or the control — produced more breakthroughs, and on what timescale. Although we used biomedicine as an example, the same experiment could just as well be run for physics, materials science, or any other discipline. Any attempt to undertake such an experiment should keep three points top of mind. First, we can predict the topic of future breakthroughs, but the people and vision for how to move the work forward are still important. In practice, this means success requires active program managers with the expertise to develop the science and the authority to do so, including by recruiting investigators. Second, we would be wise to learn from the failures of past attempts to fund transformative research. High among these are funding modestly repackaged work, confusing the genuinely novel with the merely unfamiliar, and relying too much on incumbent investigators. All of these risks can be mitigated by thoroughly and intelligently integrating high quality data into portfolio management. Finally, we need to have patience. Even with strong funding support, producing a breakthrough takes time. If supporting breakthroughs is the best way to nurture the birth of new fields, we also need to accurately describe and properly manage the other two stages, so that we invest wisely throughout the productive lifetime of ideas and divest once they reach the point of diminishing returns. We would benefit from more study of all of these phases, especially the transition from one to another. More research could answer questions like: When does a breakthrough become an established field? How do the availability of funding, the size and characteristics of the available workforce, and the accumulation of evidence that disagrees with prevailing models affect a field’s decline? Exactly how do old ideas give birth to new ones, and can we speed up the process? The more we understand about the dynamics of scientific progress, the better we can maximize the odds that our curiosity leads to results. I’d call that finding a way to make our own luck.
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