SCROLL NEWS / DISCOVERY
Search headlines
Find the stories shaping the conversation.
Results for " rough " 10,809 found 🔀 AI-powered Shuffle
Coachella 2026: The story of the festival's Ferris wheel, La Grande XL
You've seen Coachella's Ferris wheel throughout your social media feeds. We talked to the operators about what it takes to put together La Grande XL.
Analysis: Rogers still has more to prove
Morgan Rogers is attracting a lot of attention and the growing expectation is he will leave Aston Villa in the summer. Villa will likely need to sell a star player, regardless of whether they qualify for the Champions League, and Rogers is their best asset - especially with Boubacar Kamara out injured. An impressive World Cup would also strengthen Villa's hand but the England forward needs to show more of a clinical nature throughout the pitch.
What Flutter Entertainment (FLUT)'s Board Shuffle, Buybacks and Quiet Dart Stake Mean For Shareholders
In recent days, Flutter Entertainment plc reported that long-serving independent director Alfred F. Hurley, Jr. will retire at the 2026 AGM, with Nancy Dubuc set to assume the role of Chair of the Compensation and Human Resources Committee, while the company continues executing a multi-billion-dollar share repurchase program. At the same time, billionaire investor Kenneth Dart has quietly built substantial economic exposure to Flutter through total return swaps, even as analysts question...
Kings reportedly retaining Doug Christie as coach despite disappointing 2025-26 season
Christie replaced Mike Brown midway through the 2024-25 season
2026 NBA Playoffs: Clinching scenarios and standings on April 12
Every team in the NBA is set to hit the court on Sunday, with several key matchups and clinching scenarios to monitor throughout the evening.
Times Opinion: Let’s expel toxic right-wing politics from the Hamilton County Board of Education
Within national politics, we are living in a world dominated by a toxic political environment. While that is severely toned down at the local level, it does seep through into one realm: our schools.
Black Maternal Health Week highlights disparities, solutions at Hampton Roads conference
Held as part of the national awareness week from April 11 to 17, the conference brought together doctors, nurses, social workers and midwife advocates to address inequities in maternal health care and outcomes.
From LLMs to hallucinations, here's a simple guide to common AI terms
The rise of AI has brought an avalanche of new terms and slang. Here is a glossary with definitions of some of the most important words and phrases you might encounter.
Student-led sports business conference brings industry leaders to campus
University of Illinois event highlights careers in athletics, media and analytics through panels and networking.
“I stopped digging through folders”: How OmniSearch changed the way I find files on Windows 11
OmniSearch blends instant results, previews, and cleanup tools into one powerful search experience.
Prosecutors seek reforms to California’s ‘broken’ mental health diversion program
District attorneys throughout the state are pushing for legislative changes that would tighten up requirements under which a judge can grant diversion.
"Sweet blood doesn't attract mosquitoes: here is what actually attracts them according to science " - Futura-Sciences
At night, you hear the constant buzzing of a mosquito. By morning, there’s a fresh bite right on your cheek. Meanwhile, your partner slept peacefully through the night. During a walk with friends, you’re the one constantly swatting at tiny attacks on your legs, arms, and back. Like tiny vampires...
Mississippi reveals its full history for America's anniversary year, a contrast to federal efforts
America’s history is being seen through different lenses as the country celebrates its 250th anniversary | WBBM Newsradio 780 AM & 105.9 FM
Scientists Unveil Microscopy Breakthrough That Reveals “Invisible” Molecular States
Scientists have introduced a microscopy technique that reveals a hidden layer of chemistry involving molecules that normally evade detection.
"Botany of Nations" on View at The Academy of Natural Sciences Through February 14, 2027
To mark America's 250th birthday, The Academy of Natural Sciences of Drexel University has an exhibition rich with artifacts and plant specimens from the Lewis and Clark expeditions
Fractured politics, security fears shape Peru’s presidential election
Despite cycling through 8 presidents in 10 years, Peru remains Andean economic outlier | Anadolu
China's Chery looking to expand car production in Europe, top executives say
Chery is looking to expand car production in Europe through partnerships with other automakers allowing it to use existing factories, top executives at the Chinese carmaker said at an event in Paris.
'Human minds shouldn't have to go through' this: Artemis II crew recalls unreal moment when Earth disappeared — Space photo of the week
A stunning Earthset image from Artemis II recalls Apollo 8's Earthrise, marking humanity's return to deep space and the start of a new era of exploration.
MacBook Neo punches above its weight in Windows 11 gaming test
YouTuber ETA Prime has tested Windows 11 on the MacBook Neo through a virtualization app called Parallels. With full 3D hardware acceleration, the Apple A18 Pro SoC smoothly ran some Windows games on it as well.
Let’s all go to the science fair
“While participation was down this year, I believe the changes in the judging and awards element allowed us to focus on the most important things which were the students and their projects,” said Sara Milner, pre-K through fifth grade curriculum supervisor for Duxbury Public Schools. “We wanted the event to be about showcasing the students’
What Now? Vance Leaves Iran Talks Without a Deal.
The lack of a breakthrough after 21 hours of negotiations leaves the Trump administration facing several unpalatable options.
How we reported on KY's 4th Congressional District, Massie, and Trump
How The Enquirer reported on the Massie-Gallrein race throughout the congressional district.
Women’s Basketball: Utah G Avery Hjelmstad commits to TCU
The Horned Frogs have now added four players through the portal.
Small Business Administration offering drought disaster loans to Colorado small businesses, nonprofits
On Friday, the Small Business Administration announced it will offer low-interest federal disaster loans to Colorado small businesses and private nonprofits negatively affected by drought.
Who will win 2026 Masters? Rory McIlroy, Cameron Young on top as Scottie Scheffler leads chase pack
McIlroy's shocking stumble brought several contenders into the mix ahead of Sunday's final round at Augusta National
Hidden weak spots in HIV and Ebola revealed with breakthrough nanodisc technology
A new nanodisc-based platform lets scientists study viral proteins in a form that closely mimics real viruses, revealing how antibodies truly recognize them. This approach uncovered hidden interactions in viruses like HIV and Ebola that traditional methods missed. By recreating the virus’s membrane environment, researchers can better understand how immune defenses work. The technique could speed up the development of more effective vaccines.
U.S. Small Business Administration Offers Drought Disaster Loans for Colorado Businesses, Private Nonprofits, Homeowners, and Renters - by Carly Winchell
The U.S. Small Business Administration (SBA) announced the availability of low-interest federal disaster loans for small businesses and private nonprofit
Chamber of Commerce Presents Achievement Awards
Event also marked 110th of the chamber’s presence in Oswego [caption id=attachment_10469 align=alignright width=450] Abby Waever and Keara Patterson (in the middle) receive the Community Leadership & Legacy Award, presented to The Alberts Group.[/caption] The Greater Oswego-Fulton Chamber of Commerce (GOFCC) on March 4 hosted its 2026 Annual Meeting, presented by Constellation, at the Lake Ontario Event and Conference Center in Oswego. The event’s theme, Rooted in Community. The meeting celebrated the GOFCC’s 110th anniversary in the Oswego community and 10th anniversary of integration with CenterState CEO. The chamber also unveiled a new logo. “I am proud to say the GOFCC has been a force for business success, growth and opportunity, supporting organizations of every size, connecting neighbors and entrepreneurs and ensuring that every voice in Oswego County is heard,” said GOFCC Executive Director Sara Broadwell. The event featured keynote remarks from Novelis’s Kevin Schutt, vice president, manufacturing and production support at Novelis North America. [caption id=attachment_10454 align=alignright width=450] Maria Hudson of Constellation, holding the award, receives the Nancy L. Premo Woman of Distinction Award.[/caption] The GOFCC recognized the following organizations and individuals with achievement awards: • Oswego County Impact & Excellence Award, presented to Oswego County Office of Mobility Management. This award Honors a small business or nonprofit organization that demonstrates outstanding achievement through innovation, growth and measurable positive impact on Oswego County’s economy or quality of life. • Community Leadership & Legacy Award, presented to The Alberts Group. This award recognizes an individual, business or organization whose long-term leadership, investment or philanthropy has significantly advanced the vitality, resilience and future of Oswego County’s communities. • Nancy L. Premo Woman of Distinction Award, presented to Maria Hudson of Constellation. This award honors a woman in business who has made a meaningful impact on her community, inspired others through her leadership, and exemplified the values of service, integrity and empowerment. This award is presented in tribute to the late Nancy Premo, CenterState CEO’s former vice president of Human Resources.
Seniors: Dennis Ouellette, 80
Ontario Orchards owner not slowing down as he grows his farm market By Stefan Yablonski The seeds for Dennis Ouellette’s career path were sown when he was 6 years old — and he isn’t slowing down. “Since age 6, I grew up an agriculturalist. That is 72 years. Started out with a 37-acre farm when I bought it from my parents and built it up to almost 300 acres. Brought it back down to around 200 acres now,” he said. The location of his business was just a barn, a horse barn, he said. “In 1967, it officially became Ontario Orchards Farm Market. My wife [June] and I graduated [high school] in 1964 and three years later we became Ontario Orchards. We have been here more than 60 years,” he explained. “It is the same location. We have expanded over the years as the customers mentioned different things; we have expanded to bring in different products. “What keeps me going is I totally enjoy what I am doing. I enjoy the people that I work with. The customers are wonderful. Mostly, more important than anything, is my family — my wife, my daughters, grandchildren, son-in-law — we are still very much a family business I’m not going to retire just yet.” He also enjoys the changing seasons. “Ontario Orchards is a four-season business. There is always something new; more energy, more interest. Not only for the business but for my staff, the people that work here. Things keep changing, changing. We are always looking forward to something new and exciting,” he said. They work with quite a number of local farmers within the area and throughout the state, throughout the country and from around the world.” “We do have things from different countries around the world. But specifically, we are very excited about the local. We have an over 200-acre farm. We sell just about everything we raise on that farm right here at the farm market. For example, we press cider year-round. We make baked goods every day, year-round. We sell our apples 12 months a year.” “Today, there are so many products in Ontario Orchards that we never would have thought of in 1967,” he continued. “I attribute a lot of that to my daughters. I like the young blood and new energy. That is very crucial to a business, it keeps it vibrant.” What’s his favorite part of the job? “I don’t have a favorite part. I enjoy it all. I have a lot of intertest in other things,” he said. “I have staff that knows so much. I can go to the staff and say, ‘I don’t know what this is, you tell me what this is.’ They are so knowledgeable. It is impossible for one person to know everything in this place. In the summer, staff is about 60; in the winter about 20, 25.” He added that he plans on being around for several more years.
Seniors: John Lemp, 70
Has been working for more than 50 years in the business — M. Lemp Jewelers in Syracuse — that his great-grandfather started in 1890 By Mary Beth Roach Don Lemp owns and represents the fourth-generation of the family business, M. Lemp Jewelers, but he still calls himself “a counter guy.” “I love interacting with couples. It’s a wonderful business. You’re celebrating marriages, engagements, births, anniversaries — all these different significant moments that people invite you into their lives for whatever brief period of time it might be to help them celebrate whatever their important occasion is,” he said. This is one of several reasons why Lemp, at 70, has been working for more than 50 years in the business that his great-grandfather started in 1890. Always located in the downtown Syracuse area, the store has been situated in the building that the family owns on East Fayette and Warren streets since 1971. He jokes that he’s been in the business so long he is now selling engagement rings to the second generation in some families. He also loves the opportunity to learn about the ever-changing industry and gemstones. “You have to know not only diamonds, but all the colored stones, from A to Z, from andalusite to zircons,” he said. Lemp said he had originally thought he wanted to become an attorney, but while working part-time in the store while attending college at Syracuse University, he decided to follow in the family business. His father, Walter D. Lemp Sr., and his mother tried to discourage their son from pursuing retail, reminding him of the hectic hours and lifestyle intrinsic in this business. But the younger Lemp [whose full name is Walter D. Lemp Jr.] prevailed. So, over the years, father and son got to work together in the family business for 35 years. And while many other jewelers retreated from downtown to suburban malls in the 1970s, the Lemps decided to stay downtown. And it’s a decision that Lemp Jr. feels it has worked out well. As he explained, downtown Syracuse is seeing a rebirth. One website, Point2Home.com, has noted that more than 6,000 people live there and the median income is about $62,000. In addition, according to the website that Lemp built years ago, the store can cater to customers throughout the country. His customers, whether from across the country or across Onondaga County, are just one reason that Lemp stays engaged in the business. His employees, the opportunity to continue to learn in an industry, and the challenge to continue to improve business are all other reasons, he noted. He’s also been able to travel to India to buy diamonds and he enjoys buying and selling estates. “I’d rather gallop in the corral than ride into the sunset,” Lemp said.
Seniors: Carol Watson, 72
Owner of Carol Watson Greenhouse and Landscaping in LaFayette enjoys her growing business — still puts in six-, seven-day weeks By Mary Beth Roach Carol Watson, the owner of Carol Watson Greenhouse and Landscaping, has been in gardens since she could walk. Literally. She said she learned to walk in her grandfather’s garden, which was next door to her current home and business in LaFayette. Today, at 72, she is running the business that her mother, Claire, opened in 1981 as Watson Greenhouse. Watson worked part-time for her mom until 1990, when she joined her full time. While she may not have had any formal horticultural experience, she said she learned so much about growing and raising plants from her mom, who had an abundance of energy and talent. Now, after 35 years in the business full time, Watson has no plans to retire, although she joked that she’d like a couple of days off a week. On her seven-acre site, complete with four greenhouses, Watson said her favorite parts of the job are working with and educating her customers; helping some of her young customers build terrariums; conducting occasional class field trips; and supporting local art by decorating the shop with an eclectic mix of pottery from at least four area craftspeople. A one-time employee of the former Dey Bros. department store in Syracuse, Watson said she loves merchandising and enjoys displaying unique pieces of art on shelves and even suspending from ceilings. “We’re creative. We also had top quality plants. We got a reputation of quality plants and unusual products,” she said. It’s tending to her customers and her plants, showcasing the unusual products, and hosting special events to benefit the community that keep her motivated to work six to seven days a week. “I just love it. I love taking care of the plants. I’m one of the few people that really enjoys watering,” she said. And while she has cultivated a solid customer base over the years, she remains savvy in her marketing efforts to draw in new customers. For example, she does a gardening segment on CNY Central television; her active Facebook page has thousands of followers; and she hosts a number of unique events and classes that not only introduce her shop to potential new clients, but some benefit nonprofits as well. About 13 years ago, when the local symphony orchestra was struggling, she said she wanted to help. So, partnering with the group, she began offering concerts, called Soirees, featuring the Syracuse Orchestra’s string quartet. Following up on a suggestion from a customer whose brother is a deejay in retirement, specializing in sock hops, she hosted the greenhouse’s first sock hop. Plants got moved back toward the walls to make room for dancing; a caterer was brought in, offering diner-like food; guests came in period outfits; and proceeds went to the Food Bank of CNY. She is excited about doing it again in October. Via her website, she promotes the greenhouse as an “oasis in the snow,” offering visitors the opportunity to pick up some decorating and gift ideas while taking in the floral and citrus scents. And she also caters to her four-legged friends. Over this past winter, she said, she came up with a “brilliant idea,” although at the time she didn’t appreciate just how brilliant it would become. Feeling it too cold outside to take her dog for a walk, she opted to bring it into the greenhouse. And before long, she was inviting people to bring their dogs into the big greenhouse as well. She looks forward to extending that invitation again this upcoming winter season. For Watson and her customers, the greenhouse is always in season.
The business of travel is booming in Seward
With a class offered through Alaska Vocational Technical Center, locals are learning business basics and launching new careers.
Gulf Coast Sports and Entertainment Network to air 15 Biloxi Shuckers games in 2026
The Biloxi Shuckers and Gray Media Inc. will continue their TV partnership for the 2026 season, with 15 games airing throughout Mississippi and Louisiana on the Gulf Coast Sports and Entertainment Network.
Gulf Coast Sports and Entertainment Network to air 15 Biloxi Shuckers games in 2026
The Biloxi Shuckers and Gray Media Inc. will continue their TV partnership for the 2026 season, with 15 games airing throughout Mississippi and Louisiana on the Gulf Coast Sports and Entertainment Network.
Assessing Caesars Entertainment (CZR) Valuation As Investors Revisit The Stock’s Recent Performance
Why Caesars Entertainment (CZR) is on investors’ radar Caesars Entertainment (CZR) has drawn attention after recent share price moves, with a 1 day gain of about 1.7% contrasting with a loss of roughly 7.5% over the past month. See our latest analysis for Caesars Entertainment. That short term 1 day and 7 day share price strength sits against a 30 day share price return of about an 8% decline, a 90 day gain of 9.1% and a 1 year total shareholder return of 6.1%. Longer term total shareholder...
Growing List of Dead and Missing NASA Scientists Triggers New Alarm
The list of dead and missing scientists throughout the U.S. was already spurring growing alarm and, in some cases, the attention of law enforcement. Another name has been added to the list by some new...
Who were Montgomery area high school sports top performers for April 6-10
A list of this week's top performers in high school sports in the Montgomery area from games played Monday through Friday, April 6-10.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
Pokémon Champions is off to a rough start
The bugs are already getting fixed, but it’s still got a long road ahead.
US negotiators leaving without a peace deal with Iran
A U.S. official said several U.S. Navy ships crossed the Strait of Hormuz; three supertankers passed through, shipping data showed.
Paul Renner fundraising falls off, with roughly $800k raised to kick off 2026, as burn rate escalates
The conservative is at the crossroads as big donors steer clear.
Midtown High students shine at Future Business Leaders of America conference
Midtown High School’s Future Business Leaders of America chapter recently captured top honors at the Georgia FBLA State Leadership conference
Georgia gardening guru and ‘Southern gentleman’ Walter Reeves dies at 74
Walter Reeves spread his gardening gospel on WSB radio and through The Atlanta Journal-Constitution over a span of decades.
Unusual airborne toxin detected in the U.S. for the first time
Scientists searching for air pollution clues stumbled onto something unexpected: toxic MCCPs drifting through the air for the first time in the Western Hemisphere. The likely source—fertilizer made from sewage sludge—points to a hidden route for contamination.
A 67-year-old “crazy” theory about vitamin B1 has finally been proven
Scientists have achieved the unthinkable by stabilizing a highly reactive molecule in water, confirming a decades-old theory about vitamin B1’s role in the body. The breakthrough not only solves a scientific mystery but could revolutionize greener chemical manufacturing.
Colorado Politics calendar Apr. 13-19
CoPo’s weekly political calendar will help you find political and public-policy events throughout Colorado. It includes candidate and issue campaign events, public policy meetings, court hearings, state and local party conventions, assemblies, debates, rallies, parades, speaking engagements, traveling dignitary appearances, water meetings, book signings, county commission hearings, city council meetings and more. As a subscriber, […]
Health alert issued for beef and pork products sold in Virginia
A public health alert has been issued for several raw beef and pork products sold through a retailer with locations across Virginia and in Richmond.
Dozens of hidden lakes discovered beneath Arctic glaciers in Canada
Researchers have uncovered the locations of 37 subglacial lakes in Canada’s Arctic, 35 of them discovered for the very first time — what could be a major scientific breakthrough in understanding the quickly-warming region.
Dig for fossils, learn to code, and more: HCC's Community Science Night returns
Haywood Community College is welcoming back Community Science Night from 6-8 p.m. Thursday, April 23. This event is part of a statewide effort to hold community-based science-related events throughout April.
Arts and entertainment throughout the region
A listing of arts and entertainment events throughout the region.
Framework CEO warns AI boom may lead to a scenario where "personal computing as we know it is dead”
Framework CEO Nirav Patel warns that the AI boom and a “winner-takes-all” scramble for chips and storage could drive up component costs and push consumers toward cloud-leased, closed devices, effectively ending personal computing as traditionally understood. While acknowledging progress in repairability across the industry, he positions Framework’s upcoming Next Gen Event as part of a renewed pledge to defend user ownership through upgradable, repairable hardware and local control over data and computation.
In praise of popular science
As a kid, I was enthusiastically and unreservedly in favor of a manned space program. Our destiny lay in the stars, I figured. Get people out there. We need Star Trek here and now. As I got older, I became rather disenchanted with the idea. Humans are expensive, fragile, and inefficient as space cargo. We could flood the solar system with 100 robotic probes for the price of any single manned mission and get back just as useful data. Besides, it turns out space travel is dangerous. Tusk is a reader-supported publication. To support this work, please become a paid subscriber. Subscribe When it came to the recent Artemis II mission, my cynical side didn’t really see the point. Flying around the Moon and back is literally something we did before I was born, and I once owned a Members Only jacket. Apollo 8 circled the Moon ten times and returned to Earth safely the same month that “Chitty Chitty Bang Bang” was released. What was the point of repeating a feat that far braver people once did with tin foil and slide rules? Yet I’ve surprised myself with how moving I’ve found the Artemis II mission to be. The photos have been stunning. The crew has been professional and engaging. There have been modest but important milestones — the farthest humans have travelled from Earth; the first woman, person of color, and non-American to leave low-Earth orbit; innovations in communication, and more. One thing that really stood out is that this is really NASA at its finest. Not that this is the most important mission they ever pulled off, but they did this in a competent way that celebrated the achievements and kept the crew and the science at the forefront of the project. This wasn’t some billionaire throwing celebrities or cars into orbit as a vanity project — this was a collective effort to send experts in to do a job and come home safely. We don’t see that sort of thing much these days. I’m guessing few people would describe many government agencies as inspiring, but this one counts for me. We’re living through a profoundly anti-science era, in which pathbreaking, lifesaving discoveries like mRNA vaccines are routinely downplayed or even vilified. As I’ve noted previously, this era is something like that of the Red Scare in the 1940s and 50s, in which “egghead” professors were portrayed as out of touch or even hostile to regular Americans. One of the things that helped break that spell was Sputnik — the Soviet communications satellite that demonstrated that the United States was falling behind in crucial scientific research and applications. Its launch triggered a new appreciation for American science and goaded the federal government into supporting research universities and labs. I’m not saying that Artemis is the equivalent of Sputnik, but it potentially reminds people that there’s some value to scientific endeavors and the human faces attached to them. Despite my love for the show “For All Mankind,” I’m far from convinced that there’s any real value to putting colonies on the Moon or Mars that would justify the capital investment and the massive health risks to the astronauts. But sending scientific good will ambassadors on a trip into space once in a while? Bring it. Share
Temple volunteers prepared local rec centers for spring, summer sports
Students, staff and faculty removed trash and debris from the Dendy and Martin Luther King Recreation Centers in an event organized through the Owls for Philly program.
IBM to pay $17 million in anti-DEI settlement
IBM reached a settlement with the federal government on Friday, agreeing to pay roughly $17 million to resolve allegations of illegal diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) practices.
Iran Unable to Find Mines in Strait of Hormuz, U.S. Says
The lost mines have prevented Iran from quickly complying with President Trump’s demand to allow more ships to pass through the waterway.
Women's professional sports leagues see big surge in popularity and profits
Throughout the U.S. there’s been a rise in interest in professional women’s sports leagues over the past few years. According to Nielsen, in 2025 Americans watched 46 billion minutes of women’s sports.
Science students find mentorship and pathways to career success
Batool Abdulruhman and Alyssa Rivera both grew up in rural Valley communities where doctors are scarce and medical care is difficult to access. Now they are on a path to become doctors practicing in the Valley because of the support and mentorship they received through the Center for Access to Science for All (CASA) in […]
Small Business Administration offering relief to Arkansas businesses impacted by drought
The U.S. Small Business Administration announced on Friday that small businesses and private nonprofit organizations can apply for low interest federal disaster loans to offset economic losses caus…
How will NASA get the Artemis II crew safely back on Earth? Here's the science behind splashdown
While splashdown can be harrowing – the spacecraft will hurdle through the atmosphere faster than the speed of sound and reach temperatures in the thousands of degrees – NASA has been doing it for decades.
Pokemon Center Announces Early Access Program for Preordering! -...
The Pokemon Center has announced a new early access program through an update to its FAQ. Customers subscribed to the Pokemon Center newsletter and
A New Case Exposed the Clever Workaround the FBI Uses to Read 'Secure' Messages on iPhones
Law enforcement used Apple's push notifications database to gather messages sent through Signal, and convict defendants for terrorism activities.
Advancing equity for Black mothers through better nutrition
Discover how better nutrition, cultural support and community action can improve Black maternal health and reduce preventable pregnancy risks.
Trump raked in $28 million from Middle East business deals. Then he started a war.
The president's Persian Gulf real estate projects are worth roughly $17 billion.
Scientists turn 'mess' into breakthrough: Chaotic design unlocks next-generation optical devices
Researchers from the Monash University School of Physics and Astronomy have flipped a long-held assumption in optics, showing that deliberately introducing controlled disorder into ultra-thin optical ...
80 Years of Excellence: 49ers Launch Reimagined Mobile App
Sourdough Sam AI guides fans through a redesigned app, offering personalized stats and stadium info. Celebrate 80 years with this groundbreaking digital experience.
Denver Buddies: Rockies Bring Broncos Owners in as Minority Partners
The Colorado Rockies are bringing in Denver Broncos owners Greg and Carrie Walton Penner through a minority investment.
Amazon Luna ends support for third-party subscriptions and game purchases
You'll no longer be able to stream games you bought from EA, GOG and Ubisoft through the platform.
Walmart CFO bullish on e-commerce growth, Marketplace potential - Talk Business & Politics
Walmart’s e-commerce business has become a meaningful contributor to the retailer’s growth, now comprising roughly 20% of the company’s revenue. Last year, Walmart’s e-commerce sales exceeded $150 billion, with 27%...
Breaking Down Barriers
Through the student-led Colby Community Health Program, students and shelter guests exchange health tips, snacks, and life lessons.
Health alert issued for beef and pork products sold in Virginia
A public health alert has been issued for several raw beef and pork products sold through a retailer with locations across Virginia and in Richmond.
NASA took this camera gear to space aboard Artemis 2, and you can own it, too!
Artemis 2 is the first crewed lunar mission in over 50 years, but the cameras onboard are surprisingly down-to-earth. Here's how to get your hands on the gear that has brought us so many stunning shots of space.
BioFest Days event spotlights innovation at Center for Brain Health - UT Health San Antonio
The BioFest Days brought the community together April 7, for an evening of discovery and connection at the UT Health San Antonio Center for Brain Health. Hosted as part of the 12-day, citywide celebration of biomedical advancement organized by BioMed SA, the event invited attendees to explore how research, clinical care and community involvement […]
Interview: Rob McClure on the Unsettling Reality of SPARE PARTS – “This Isn’t Science Fiction. It’s Just Science.”
“Experimenting on yourself is insane. An experiment on a single person, with no controls, tells you nothing. It is incapable of predicting anything.” Or… is it? Such is the premise of Spare Parts, the darkly comedic and deeply twisted new drama currently shaking up Theatre Row through April 30th — and subverting our standards of what …Read more
Android’s upcoming ‘Tap to Share’ can send contacts, files, etc – here’s what it looks like [Gallery]
Google is preparing a new “Tap to Share” feature for Android devices and, through the latest updates, we’re able to...
Scientists Found a Common Brain 'Fingerprint' Across 5 Psychedelics
"This is a breakthrough in how we think about psychedelic drugs."
Idaho National Laboratory nuclear science trailer delivers hands-on nuclear science experience to Wyoming
The Idaho National Laboratory is bringing its nuclear science trailer on a two-day tour through Wyoming, kicking off in Laramie on Monday, April 13.
Horne misses Toulon clash through injury
Glasgow Warriors head coach Franco Smith has made two changes for Saturday's Champions Cup quarter-final clash against RC Toulon. An unchanged front-row sees Patrick Schickerling continue at loose-head alongside Gregor Hiddleston and Zander Fagerson up front.
Menopause products are having a hot minute. But doctors urge women to be wary of the marketing surge
Women suffering through the hot flashes, night sweats, mood changes and sleep problems that can come with menopause — all while looking in the mirror and noticing signs of aging — are being bombarded with products.
Team IMPACT CEO Krissie Kelleher understands the healing power of sports, teamwork and community
Krissie Kelleher used lessons from her lacrosse career to guide her daughter through surgeries and treatment for a spinal cord tumor. Witnessing how sports helped her daughter heal emotionally and physically inspired Kelleher to lead Team IMPACT, a national nonprofit connecting children facing serious illness with NCAA sports teams. Today, the organization partners with more than 400 schools and 1,100 teams to help kids build confidence, find community and experience hope through teamwork.
Peru's Dysfunctional Politics Are an Economic Time Bomb
Peru has gone through three presidents since October, yet markets have largely yawned: Country risk has edged up only marginally, credit default swaps remain well below their five-year average and the currency has even gained against the dollar.
ACL tear fears, TikTok myths and the fight for credible women’s health science in sports
A new era of sports science, in which women are not viewed through the prism of “little men,” is gradually emerging.
ACL tear fears, TikTok myths and the fight for credible women’s health science in sports
A new era of sports science, in which women are not viewed through the prism of “little men,” is gradually emerging.
ACL tear fears, TikTok myths and the fight for credible women’s health science in sports
A new era of sports science, in which women are not viewed through the prism of “little men,” is gradually emerging.
Major United Nations Report Faces Budget Woes Amid Trump’s Pull Back
Without US backing and more money being spent than brought in, the IPCC’s trust fund could run out by 2028.
St. Petersburg Council advances $600M infrastructure bond proposal to Committee
Council took up the item without debate, reflecting desire to at least advance the conversation through the process despite likely debate.
Looking at politics through Lincoln-tinted spectacles
Regular readers of Whale’s Tales may have noticed.
Starmer says he is ‘fed up’ with Trump and Putin’s impact on UK energy costs
PM appears to draw comparison between Russian and US leaders and calls for plan to restore shipping through strait of Hormuz
The nation’s cartoonists on the week in politics
Every week political cartoonists throughout the country and across the political spectrum apply their ink-stained skills to capture the foibles, memes, hypocrisies and other head-slapping events in the world of politics. The fruits of these labors are hundreds of cartoons that entertain and enrage readers of all political stripes. Here's an offering of the best of this week's crop, picked fresh off the Toonosphere. Edited by Matt Wuerker.
Penguins clinch playoff spot with 5-2 win over Devils
Evgeni Malkin scored as part of his two-point game, Sidney Crosby set up two goals and Kris Letang had an assist as the Pittsburgh Penguins clinched a playoff spot by defeating the New Jersey Devils 5-2 on Thursday night. The Penguins are playoff-bound for the first time since 2022, ending a three-year drought that followed a streak of qualifying 16 seasons in a row. Crosby, Malkin and Letang have been around for all of it, including Stanley Cup runs in 2009, ’16 and ’17.
Drip Bros founders giving back to the community through growing business
At a Little League game in San Luis Obispo, two young entrepreneurs are stepping up to the plate, both on the field and in the business world.
North Dakotans can learn about resources to grow healthy habits on April 18 at Gateway to Health event | Health and Human Services North Dakota
Individuals and families are invited to the fourth annual Gateway to Health community event, which includes activities for all ages on Saturday, April 18, 10 a.m.- 4 p.m. at North Dakota’s Gateway to Science in Bismarck. Participants will enjoy free access to the science center during their registered two-hour time slot, along with access to interactive booths and exhibits promoting health and wellbeing through hands-on activities, games and prizes.
Measles exposure at Boise Airport? Idaho health officials issue warning
The Department of Health and Welfare said people traveling through on this date should watch for symptoms. Many flyers are being contacted.
Mac OS X Cheetah Successfully Ported to Nintendo Wii
Developer Bryan Keller was curious whether an old version of Apple's Mac operating system was capable of running on the Nintendo Wii after seeing Windows NT ported to the gaming device, so he decided to give it a try. He was able to get Mac OS X 10.0 Cheetah to operate on the Nintendo Wii, and he shared a blog post walking through the project.
Encinitas school first in San Diego region to earn Green Business Certification
The City of Encinitas recently recognized The Grauer School as a newly certified Green Business through the Encinitas Green Business Network. A pioneer in holistic learning and sustainable practices, the school is the first in the San Diego…
What's really behind Phillies' recent offensive drought
The Phillies have gone cold again, but the numbers suggest the lineup isn’t entirely broken — it just isn’t clicking in its current order.
Open for business: Locals flock to Mount Pleasant Farmers Market
The April 7 opening day at the Mount Pleasant Farmers Market near Moultrie Middle School brought out a strong showing of residents and visitors. The weekly market featured locally-grown farm
AMPLIFIED: New era for ‘Sports and Entertainment Capital of the World’?
The Raiders will keep star edge rusher Maxx Crosby after a trade to Baltimore fell through.
Exclusive: DraftKings, FanDuel, Fanatics, Bet365 fund sports gambling super PAC
Several major sportsbooks have contributed tens of millions of dollars to a super PAC to support sports betting throughout the country, Axios has learned.
Summit State Bank’s Ken Wu named to North Bay Business Journal’s Forty Under 40 of 2026
“He was promoted into management because of his ability to guide others without ego, foster an environment of trust and accountability, and encourage learning and cross-training throughout the department.”