SCROLL NEWS / DISCOVERY
Search headlines
Find the stories shaping the conversation.
Results for " politician " 1,200 found 🔀 AI-powered Shuffle
Mamata Banerjee, West Bengal election results 2026: India’s fiercest female politician faces a fight for survival
Mamata Banerjee loses West Bengal state, throwing her party - and political future - into doubt.
Political row as report calls for sweeping cuts to French public broadcasting
Inquiry set up by rightwing politician recommends merging major channels and slashing TV entertainment budgets by 75%
Barney Frank and Rudy Giuliani: Two powerful men with different paths
The two politicians couldn’t be more different, but, like us all, face the same inescapable fate.
Politicians are not ignoring you, statistical analysis suggests
If you're registered to vote in the United States and you're not among the richest of the rich, political scientist Peter K. Enns has a message for you: Your voice still matters. So does data analysis ...
The Guardian view on the green transition: politicians should speed it up
Editorial: Party divisions over energy have deepened, but the need to move beyond fossil fuels has never been clearer
Redistricting war accelerates winner-take-all politics straining American democracy
The arcane art of drawing legislative lines is the most powerful tool that politicians have for gaming elections.
Mali: Authorities must immediately clarify the fate and whereabouts of lawyer and pro-democracy politician Mountaga Tall
On 3 May 2026, leader of the National Congress for Democratic Initiative Mountaga Tall was abducted by armed and hooded men.
Lebanon's most senior Shi'ite politician says no to negotiations with Israel until war stops
Lebanon's parliament speaker, who is the most senior Shi'ite politician and a close ally of Hezbollah, said on Monday there could be no negotiations with Israel without a halt to the war that has raged on in southern Lebanon in spite of a ceasefire.
Central Mass. business and political leaders oppose rent control, but will voters listen?
Central Mass. politicians and business leaders warn of losses if rent control is enacted.
Central Mass. business and political leaders oppose rent control, but will voters listen?
Central Mass. politicians and business leaders warn of losses if rent control is enacted.
Marc Kassen checks into political thriller ‘PH-1’
Kassen directs, co-writes and stars as a politician whose luxe Suite 1 penthouse becomes an involuntary prison as he sees his life and career in ruins as he becomes a social media target.
The World Cup’s toughest opponent: New Jersey
FIFA got what it wanted from dictators and oil sheikhs. Elected politicians in the Garden State are proving harder to please.
The gaffes are becoming a pattern for Seattle’s new mayor
They say a gaffe is when a politician tells the truth. Seattle Mayor Katie Wilson saying "bye" to the wealthy upset about taxes is not the kind of truth Seattle needs right now.
Local politicians face threats, cost of security sparks debate
A spate of political violence and a rising number of threats had rattled state and local officials asking what should be done to protect those in public office.
As local politicians face threats, the cost of security sparks debate
From hardened SUVs to home upgrades, officeholders are going to new lengths to protect themselves. The question is: Who pays?
Atrium poised to take over WakeMed in Triangle healthcare shakeup
The Wake County Board of Commissioners is set to vote on a proposal Monday that would alter WakeMed's articles of incorporation. Politicians are already concerned about the potential merger.
Legislature's adviser tries budget tough love to get California politicians to close huge deficits
Legislative Analyst Gabe Petek says state spending grew by $100 billion or so a year since 2019, outstripping revenues and resulting in current and future deficits.
Are all our politicians on drugs? No. Yet it is fair to say some may occasionally attend work refreshed
Gor blimey it smells like a brewery
'Gutfeld!': Another Dem politician hates America
Fox News host Greg Gutfeld and the 'Gutfeld!' panel discuss Michigan Senate candidate Mallory McMorrow's social media controversy.
Copycat investing apps surge as Americans mirror trades of politicians and top investors
He continues to resist despite his frail health: wife of jailed Ugandan politician Kizza Besigye
His health is not good, but he is strong in spirit Besigye is strong in spirit. He continues to state his innocence, and he continues to remind people that all this is political and that you never give up what you believe in, what you stand for politically, just because you are being persecuted. So, […]
He continues to resist despite his frail health: wife of jailed Ugandan politician Kizza Besigye
His health is not good, but he is strong in spirit Besigye is strong in spirit. He continues to state his innocence, and he continues to remind people that all this is political and that you never give up what you believe in, what you stand for politically, just because you are being persecuted. So, […]
What the Royal State Dinner Guest List Says About Trump’s America
There were at least 10 American billionaires, six Fox News hosts, assorted presidential pals, no Democratic politicians and not so many British.
‘Excruciating and Agonizing’: A New Reality for Jewish Democrats
With Israel increasingly unpopular and antisemitism on the rise, Jewish politicians find themselves more and more under attack.
Will King's US visit make a political difference?
As applause fades and banquet plates are cleared, it's up to politicians to build on Charles's historic trip.
Political violence and Wisconsin's 2026 race for governor
As the political tenor in America continues to deteriorate, threats against politicians have increased, some only online and others very much real and in person. This peril was once again ...
Iraq Politicians Chose New Candidate for PM After Trump Pressure
Former Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki ended his bid to reclaim the role after pressure from the US, which was concerned by his close links to Iran.
Millions of Americans copying stock trades of politicians, famous investors thorugh app
Election 2026: The current politicians standing down
Several high-profile politicians will stand down from the States, some with decades-long careers.
Accreditor Mum as Texas Politicians Take Curricular Control
Texas public universities are restricting what faculty can teach and graduate students can research. Although they appear to violate its standards, SACS hasn’t responded.
How will Gen Z Essex politicians tackle employment and education
Five of the youngest politicians in the county go head to head on live radio.
Video: Why Are Politicians Dropping So Many F-Bombs?
Times reporters had a hunch that politicians were using the F-word more than ever. So they analyzed the data and found an interesting trend: Democrats are swearing far more than Republicans. Our reporter Kellen Browning breaks down why.
No. 2 on the list of Tampa Bay's Most Powerful Politicians: Jim Boyd
'His leadership as Senate President will be tremendously important for our area.'
No. 4 on the list of Tampa Bay’s Most Powerful Politicians: Ed Hooper
'With decades of experience and a deep understanding of the process, Ed Hooper quietly drives results where it matters most.'
How arts institutions built the city that politics couldn’t
Doing the work that politicians have left undone
No. 6 on the list of Tampa Bay’s Most Powerful Politicians: Danny Burgess
Burgess has continued to expand his role within the Legislature by consistently delivering results.
Thailand: 44 Opposition Politicians Face Lifetime Ban from Politics
Thai authorities will prosecute 44 opposition politicians for sponsoring a bill to reform Thailand’s lèse-majesté (insulting the monarchy) law, which could result in a lifetime ban from politics.
Honorable mentions on the list of Tampa Bay’s Most Powerful Politicians: Josie Tomkow, Wilton Simpson and Jay Collins
All 3 face voters at the ballot box this year, but only 2 have uncertain political futures.
Civil-Military Relations under the Trump Administration (Part I) -- Politicians and Military Leaders | List of Articles | International Information Network Analysis
IINA provides ongoing analysis of international affairs both by region—such as North America, China, and Europe—and by such topics as human security, nontraditional security threats, and cyber security. The articles on this site, written by experts at the Sasakawa Peace Foundation and guest contributors, are carefully selected for their objectivity, accuracy, timeliness, and relevance for Japan.
“Us versus them”: How political propaganda polarises beliefs without providing any news
Political polarisation is often attributed to misinformation, echo chambers, or biased news. But new experimental evidence suggests that merely making a social conflict salient – without providing any information at all – is enough to sharply increase disagreement on both factual and normative questions. This column discusses how politicians and media can ‘artificially’ amplify societal tensions by strategically choosing which conflicts to highlight, and why this mechanism is harder to counter than standard misinformation.
No. 7 on the list of Tampa Bay's Most Powerful Politicians: Kathy Castor
'Tampa Bay is lucky to call her our own.'
No. 8 on the list of Tampa Bay’s Most Powerful Politicians: Ken Hagan
He's the unofficial, and sometimes official, Rays whisperer.
No. 11 on the list of Tampa Bay’s Most Powerful Politicians: Bob Gualtieri
In the age of politics dominated by Donald Trump’s priorities, Gualtieri has stood out as both an ally and independent thinker.
Kalshi Bans And Fines Three Politicians For Placing Bets On Their Own Races
The prediction market issued fines and five-year bans for political candidates in Minnesota, Virginia and Texas.
No. 13 on the list of Tampa Bay’s Most Powerful Politicians: Darryl Rouson
Lawmakers regularly credit Rouson with mentorship and guidance, pointing to his willingness to help shape the next wave of leadership.
Scottish Parliament election 2026: Politicians campaign for votes across the country ahead of the election on 7 May
Politicians are campaigning for votes across the country ahead of the election on 7 May
Kalshi suspends three politicians from platform
The prediction market company Kalshi has suspended three politicians for allegedly betting on their own political campaigns. They are banned from the platform for five years. NBC News’ Brian Cheung has more on the story.
Kalshi Bans And Fines Three Politicians For Placing Bets On Their Own Races
The prediction market issued fines and five-year bans for political candidates in Minnesota, Virginia and Texas.
Kalshi suspends 3 U.S. congressional candidates for ‘political insider trading’
WASHINGTON >> Prediction markets platform Kalshi said today it has suspended three U.S. congressional candidates for “political insider trading,” building on its efforts to block politicians and athletes from betting on contests in which they are involved.
Kalshi fines, suspends politicians for trading on own elections
The fines ranged from $539 to more than $6,200, and the suspensions are set to last five years.
No. 14 on the list of Tampa Bay's Most Powerful Politicians: Laurel Lee
In her 2 terms in office, the Congresswoman has so far sponsored four bills that became law, with more bills on track to pass.
Kayleigh McEnany: Politicians have been ‘lying to you’
‘Saturday in America’ host Kayleigh McEnany discusses the Democratic Party’s stance on the Iran conflict and President Donald Trump’s response on ‘Jesse Watters Primetime.’
No. 21 on the list of Tampa Bay’s Most Powerful Politicians: Kathleen Peters
Peters has established herself as a warrior for mental health and a consistent champion for lowering property taxes.
No. 22 on the list of Tampa Bay’s Most Powerful Politicians: Michael Owen
Owen has positioned himself as a champion for local voters rather than a top-down policymaker.
No. 23 on the list of Tampa Bay’s Most Powerful Politicians: Danny Alvarez
His reputation positions him as a policy workhorse with growing influence.
No. 24 on the list of Tampa Bay’s Most Powerful Politicians: Harry Cohen
Cohen faces re-election this year, but as a testament to his command of office, he likely faces an easy path to victory.
No. 25 on the list of Tampa Bay’s Most Powerful Politicians: Adam Anderson
Anderson is focused heavily on genetic and rare disease policy, a deeply personal issue for the lawmaker.
13th annual list of Tampa Bay’s Most Powerful Politicians
Tampa Bay’s most powerful politicians navigate influence, growth, and regional change.
From Donald Trump to Jacob Frey — has politics lost its profanity filter?
If there was ever a set of rules for politicians interfacing with the public, steadfast avoidance of profanity might have been at the very top of such a list. Robert’s Rules of Order, which are often invoked in political spaces, certainly prohibit personal insults, including profanity. But these are new times. Just last week, President Donald Trump […]
Fired former official says he felt political pressure to approve Mandelson as U.S. ambassador
The testimony by former Foreign Office head Olly Robbins turns up the heat on Starmer, who is facing calls to resign over the appointment of a scandal-tainted former politician and friend of Jeffrey Epstein to one of the U.K.’s most important diplomatic posts.
Scottish Parliament election 2026: Parties campaign ahead of postal vote application deadline
Politicians are campaigning for votes across the country ahead of the election on 7 May.
West Bengal election: Why politicians are campaigning with fish in hand
In West Bengal polls, fish moves from plate to politics, symbolising identity and cultural pride.
Israel’s critics are winning the battle for the Democratic Party
Democratic voters turned against Israel. Now their politicians are following.
Politicians are using low teen birth rates to further restrict access to birth control, abortion
“Both narratives — that teen birth rates are too high or too low — problematize teen pregnancy and childbearing,” writes Riley J. Steiner.
Tehran will never cede control of Strait of Hormuz, senior Iranian politician tells BBC
"Iran will decide the right of passage" through the crucial shipping route, Ebrahim Azizi tells the BBC's Lyse Doucet.
How do New Yorkers feel about politicians using obscenities?
33 years after the crash, there’s still plenty to miss about Mickelson and his brand of politics
Just as journalism has felt the effects of time, so have politics and politicians. Gov. Mickelson was, after all, literally a giant among elected officials.
Colorado’s lawmakers lie on the ballot, again, to take away TABOR
I know this will shock you, but the system is rigged. Maybe not in the conspiracy-theory, tinfoil-hat way. In the simple, obvious, right-in-front-of-your-face way: politicians get to play by rules you don’t. And every now and then they get so brazen about it, you have to stop and admire the hustle. We Coloradans have been […]
Muslim Southerners Face a Fresh Wave of Hateful Political Rhetoric
Some Muslim voters were once drawn to Republican positions on family values and individual liberty, but as Southern politicians stoke anti-Islamic sentiment, many feel threatened.
Minnesota medical drivers plead for help from politicians after national business cancels contract over fraud allegations
A national medical transportation business says allegations of fraud caused it to recently cancel a 20-year contract with a local company. The company says it's not true.
Hungary’s Magyar demands vote rerun in constituency with namesake politician
Péter Magyar claims the Fidesz party ran a “proxy candidate” in the region.
Norwegian politicians hope Epstein files inquiry will restore faith in democracy
Disgraced financier’s links to politicians and civil servants as far back as 30 years ago to be examined
Donald Tusk claims Russian-backed crypto firm influenced Polish politics
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk claims a cryptocurrency firm with “Russian money” has sponsored politicians from Poland's former government.
Transparency is one of best ways to hold politicians accountable: OpenTheBooks CEO
OpenTheBooks CEO John Hart discusses the need for transparency regarding federal fraud and an audit highlighting the delinquency of IRS workers regarding taxes on 'Varney & Co.'
South African Politician Julius Malema Is Sentenced to 5 Years in Prison
The leftist lawmaker has been a prime target of President Trump’s attacks on South Africa. The ruling, handed down after a conviction on gun charges, leaves Mr. Malema’s political future in doubt.
Are more and more politicians embracing profanity?
There are now scores of examples of political figures in the English-speaking world who are openly embracing the expletive.
South Africa names new US ambassador amid tense Trump ties
South Africa has appointed a prominent Afrikaner politician, Roelf Meyer, to the ambassadorial role in Washington. This comes amid allegations from the Trump administration of a "white genocide" in the country.
Voters ousted 3 politicians in Portland’s most purple county. Now they want comebacks
A record 14 candidates are vying for 3 seats in Clackamas County.
‘I thought it was me as a doctor’: 10 of the best political excuses ever
From Boris Johnson to Rudy Giuliani, top politicians have come up with some imaginative justifications for alleged misbehavior.
Who’s giving big to Miami-Dade politicians this year? Townhouse builder tops the list
In county government, Miami-Dade Commissioner Vicki Lopez raised the most in political contributions to start 2026.
Argentine bishop offers advice to young people who wish to enter politics
Bishop Juan Liébana of Chascomús, Argentina, describes the ideal profile of a politician: a person of great virtue and integrity intent on building a better society.
Sam Wang, Politician-in-Training
The neuroscientist went from analyzing elections to running for Congress. But can this rookie win over New Jersey locals—and Trump voters?
A president and a pope: Two of the world’s most influential Americans at odds over Iran
Never before has the relationship between Washington and the Vatican revolved around two Americans — specifically, a 79-year-old politician from Queens and a 70-year-old pontiff from Chicago.
Insider: Why are politicians cursing so much lately?
“I think that it is simply because it’s accepted,” one political science professor said of the trend of increased public cursing by politicians.
Iraq elects Kurdish politician Nizar Amidi as president amid Iran war fallout
Iraq's parliament voted Saturday to elect Nizar Amidi as president, five months after a parliamentary election that didn't produce a decisive majority.
Iraq parliament elects Kurdish politician Nizar Amedi as president
New president pledges 'Iraq First' after securing 227 votes, ending five months of political deadlock.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
Iraq elects Kurdish politician Nizar Amidi as president amid war fallout
BAGHDAD (AP) — Iraq’s parliament voted Saturday to elect Nizar Amidi, a political official with one of the country’s two main Kurdish parties, as president, five months after a parliamentary election that didn’t produce a bloc with a decisive majority.
Iraq elects Kurdish politician Nizar Amidi as president amid war fallout
Iraq’s parliament has elected Nizar Amidi as president, five months after elections failed to produce a decisive majority. The vote took place Saturday.
Canadian politician goes viral for using sprawling LGBT acronym critics compare to a Wi-Fi password
A Canadian politician's use of the lengthy acronym MMIWG2SLGBTQQIA+ during public remarks went viral, with social media users comparing it to a password.
How Trump’s ‘wall of noise’ is changing Australian politics – Back to Back Barries podcast
Tony Barry and Barrie Cassidy discuss the fragile ceasefire in Iran and the pressure building on Australian politicians to respond to Donald Trump’s escalating rhetoric.
When and why political leaders polarise rhetoric: Evidence from Twitter/X
Standard theories of electoral competition predict that politicians should converge toward the centre as elections approach. This column challenges this prediction, using 3.4 million tweets from 367 political leaders across 21 Western democracies. Rhetorical polarisation between populist and non-populist leaders rises sharply in the two quarters before an election and reverts to average levels once it is over. Both groups adopt a more emotionally direct communication style as elections near, but they increasingly talk about different topics. The findings suggest that social media turns electoral campaigns into an engine of political polarisation.
More women in politics does not always mean more gender equality
Evidence on the policy impact of female politicians is mixed. This column uses data on bills sponsored in the Italian House of Representatives between 1987 and 2022 to show how female politicians’ engagement with women’s issues is systematically related to the gender norms of the environments in which they were born. The findings suggest that while increasing the number of women in politics remains essential to broaden representation and diversify policy priorities, if social norms remain traditional, progress on gender equality may still be slow.
‘We need new blood’: Texas voters look for leadership changes, fresh faces this election year
Some vocal Texas voters say they want to get rid of politicians who've served the state for decades. Much of that sentiment can be boiled down to a preference for younger candidates with new energy — or even older ones who buck long-held status quo.
WATCH: Democratic presidential prospects flock to Al Sharpton's conference in New York
The Democratic Party's most ambitious politicians are courting African American activists in New York this week as the party's unofficial 2028 presidential nomination contest takes shape at an annual conference led by Rev. Al Sharpton.
The normalisation of political profanity
Donald Trump isn’t the first politician to sully their office with foul-mouthed rhetoric and it’s catching on with rivals too
Politicians Are Spending More Money on Security as They Increasingly Become Targets
Political candidates are purchasing more home alarms, bulletproof vests, and other protections amid rising fears of political violence.
On Social Media, Democratic Politicians Are Letting the F-Word Fly
In person, on social media and in campaign ads, Democratic politicians are swearing with glee. It is usually aimed at President Trump.
A new generation of politicians of colour is emerging in France. The backlash speaks volumes
Local elections have led to a surge of racism in a country that still struggles to see itself as anything other than white, says Guardian Europe columnist Rokhaya Diallo