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There’s a Reason That Netflix’s Ad Business Has Underwhelmed
Somewhat lost in the company’s slew of firings and engagement warnings over the past few weeks was the fact that Netflix is scaling back its ad forecast for 2026 from $3 billion to $2.7 billion. That’s despite the fact that: CTV is growing by 14-15% this year This year saw a monster upfront Netflix is the biggest streamer out there this side of YouTube, and was the platform that for years brands were supposedly dying to be a part of In other words, that’s an alarming pull-back from Netflix. A Wall Street analyst I spoke with last week was blunt, calling Netflix’s ad business “disappointing.” To me, a red flag on the ad front is that Netflix has never revealed how many ad-supported subscribers it has. Because if I know anything about how big companies work, if they have a positive number that makes them look really good - they tend to share it. (How many subs does go90 have right now? We’re not saying just yet. How are ads going on ChatGPT? Oh, a billion run rate - I see). Yes, to date Netflix has shared some fuzzy ad numbers, such as the idea that the company’s ad tier ‘reaches’ 250 million users globally.’ Here’s why that figure gives me pause: a)they lead with global, and b) they don’t explain how they are calculated. (Are they based on average people in each room? Surveys of some kind?). Regardless, some insiders say that Netflix’s ad tier is scaling nicely - others not so much. Either way, one of Netflix’s biggest challenge on the ad front appears to have been its starting point. Remember, when Netflix launched ads in 2022, it had 73 million subs in the US and Canada. That’s 73 million people who were used to Netflix with zero ads. And when the ad product rolled out, the company clearly was going after new users - a limited pool of potential subscribers by default. That focus seems to have changed over time, as Netflix has tried to convert longtime subscribers to the ad tier. Historically Netflix subscribers are very sticky. But is the company’s low churn a problem? Not necessarily, according to Antenna data. Rather, Netflix’s consumer loyalty is a bit of a double-edged sword. “Netflix is the one streamer which actually has seen substantial “trade downs” but has much lower ‘win backs,’ said Antenna founder Jonathan Carson (win-backs being people who were on the ad-free plan, cancelled, then rejoined on the ad plan). “Netflix has lower churn and so has less opportunity to win back old subs with a lower cost plan option.” This all might explain why Netflix has been so slow to roll out all of these table stakes targeting options until just this week. It likely didn’t have enough users to carve up into various targets. etc. However, what really hit Netflix’s ad business was Amazon’s move a few years ago to turn on advertising for Prime Video by default. Suddenly the market was awash in premium inventory, and Netflix was playing catch-up on multiple fronts. Thus, the streaming giant appears to still be figuring out if if wants lead in ‘programmatic TV,’ or premium ‘upfront’ TV sales. “The CTV market now sorts into three businesses, and Netflix is not the leader of any of them,” wrote analyst Jack Myers. Ouch. So how does Netflix ratchet up its ads business? Get the next NFL package You’re gonna have to wait until 2030 unless one of the bigger media companies like Skydance opts out, but the easiest (not cheapest) way for Netflix to become a huge TV ads contender is to get one of the regular NFL packages, ideally Sunday afternoons. That way it can sell ads to its whole U.S. subs base overnight. Go FAST This one is risky, because to program a compelling FAST channel, you’d likely have to take some older Netflix exclusive shows and make them available for free to non-subscribers. But FASTs, for better or worse, are ad-inventory machines. Go full UGC I’m not sure I see this happening. There is something already off about Netflix carrying podcasts and shows for creators. The experience sticks out in what is such a produced, and generally non-communal environment. But Netflix could open up its platform by allowing creators to upload videos without having to be approved by the service. But that opens a whole other can of worms (policing brand safety, copyright infringement, overall quality). Make a huge RMN Deal I was going to suggest something crazy, such as ‘instead of buying Warner Brothers, Netflix should buy Target. But the company doesn’t want to be in the brick and mortar business. Yet for Netflix’s ad business to compete in an Amazon world, it needs to be able to connect ad exposures to shopping. What if, instead of letting Amazon target Netflix viewers with its DSP, Netflix inked a deal with Target, or even took control of Roundel, and created its version of the Amazon full-funnel for brands? Price us out. I hope they don’t do this, but Netflix’s price increases - while significant - haven’t been enough to push long-term customers out of the ad-free tier. But if they made those prices so prohibitive, it could push large swaths of consumers to trade down. Then again, that could also dent engagement - as binging becomes much less appealing once you bring ads into the equation. Or, they could just launch a bunch of hit shows and maybe everyone will quickly forget all this angst. More from Amazon unBoxed A few weeks ago, I recorded two podcasts live at Amazon’s unBoxed event in San Francisco. I was able to go really deep with several brand partners about how Amazon’s various data and ad products work - particularly the under appreciated Amazon Marketing Cloud. First, I talked with Laura Abadias Velilla, of the Amazon specialty agency Amerge, along with Amazon’s own Charlotte Maines, Vice President, Devices Content & Advertising, about how the two partners helped a very specific printer company Epson launch into a brand new category - high end projectors. It’s a great example of how brands connect audience data across platforms to make budget deployment decisions. Next, I chatted with Monks VP Head of Digital Investment for North America Tom Burchill about how the agency actually brought in data from Linkedin to help target B2B customers across various Amazon properties for the brand Quicken. Check it out: Check these out, or just listen:
Green’s funding lags in CD9 race, even with $1.8M loan to himself
President Donald Trump’s fundraising committee gave nearly a third of a million dollars to the Republican candidate ahead of the 2026 midterms.
Picking Week 8 of college football in the Big Ten
Who can we expect to see win in the Big Ten this week?
Notre Dame Needs More Pass Rushers To Emerge On Defense
Static schemes and declining production from stars like Bryce Young have stalled the Irish defense. To survive, Chris Ash must unleash aggressive blitzes and prioritize pure pressure.
MLB News Outside The Confines: The Fall Classic is here
Lots and lots about the World Series, the Brewers and the Rays. Some free agent musing and other MLB news.
Staff Predictions: Michigan Football vs Indiana
In this week’s Roundtable, we discuss the QB change, takeaways from last week’s win, bold predictions for the Indiana game, and much more:
What's that 1912 home on Commercial in south Salem turning into?
Crews remodeled an office space and are building a coffee shop on the east side of the property along Commercial Street in south Salem.
Business schools are failing their students, says Cambridge professor Christopher Marquis
Christopher Marquis, Cambridge Business School professor, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss his recent New York Times essay arguing for business schools to shut down, how the schools can be redesigned to focus on societal impact, and more.
FDA Should Practice the Science It Preaches
The FDA has plenty of advice for pharmaceutical companies. It publishes guidance documents, establishes scientific expectations, and expects drug developers to explain themselves when they take a diff...
SHANE BROWN: If my house is haunted, I hope it's just my ghost cats
If my house is haunted, I hope it’s one of my cats, but if I hear something sharpening its claws on my couch at 3 a.m., I won’t get up
SHANE BROWN: If my house is haunted, I hope it's just my ghost cats
If my house is haunted, I hope it’s one of my cats, but if I hear something sharpening its claws on my couch at 3 a.m., I won’t get up
NFL fans blast officials for making Sunday Night Football “unwatchable”
NFL fans questioned a controversial roughing-the-passer penalty during the Packers' 23-13 win over the Cowboys on Sunday Night Football. The call erased a potential interception and reignited debate over officiating consistency, player safety and the impact of penalties on the game's flow.
Good to see you after all this time. Scientists finally put a face to Denisovans
Scientists use fossil fragments found in northern China to reconstruct the features of the ancient hominids.
SpaceX bear flips to big bull because of AI business. Analyst now sees 70% gain
PhillipCapital moved its rating on the Elon Musk giant to buy from sell, with the bullishness stemming from the company's AI business.
The El Clásico quiz, how much do you know?
El Clásico is this weekend, and you can feel the excitement. To get you in the mood and warmed up, here’s the El Clásico Quiz so you can show how much you know about this rivalry. Who do you thi...
Everton's Trip to Arsenal: Opposition View as Thierno Barry Praised
Everton travel to the Emirates to face Arsenal in the Premier League, and we looked to get some more insight from north London.
Giants' Cutthroat Najee Harris Move is Surprisingly Refreshing
The New York Giants' decision to cut Najee Harris this week was surprisingly refreshing.
NFL Analyst Shares Minnesota Vikings Clear Advantages over Indianapolis Colts
Minnesota’s top-ranked scoring defense and a surging ground game look to exploit Indianapolis’s red-zone struggles and league-worst rush EPA in this lopsided interconference showdown.
Democrats’ Projected Majority Grows as 19 More House Races Shift Away From the GOP
Republicans’ path to keeping control of the House has all but evaporated. The outstanding question is how large Democrats’ majority will be in 2027; in the best-case scenario, their party could enter the new Congress with more seats than they had after successfully flipping control of the House in 2006 and 2018.
A Krehbiel matriarch sold her condo in a State Parkway classic
Kay Krehbiel, widow of one of the brothers who built Molex into a multibillion-dollar company, sold the unit in one of architect Benjamin Marshall's finest buildings, completed in 1911.
Chelsea vs. Tottenham Hotspur Premier League Preview
A one-match win streak is unlikely to become two.
Cowboys news: Brian Schottenheimer is feeling the pressure
Here is today’s Dallas Cowboys news.
Gov. JB Pritzker doling out big bucks to help Democrats — and boost a 2028 presidential run
Pritzker is taking out $40 million from his vast personal wealth to boost candidates in contentious races, and building coalitions with Democrats across the country, including in 2028 early primary states. "It's a terrific strategy," says former presidential candidate Howard Dean.
24-team playoff will ruin college football’s regular season
A 24-team tournament rewards college football’s biggest brands and gives programs such as Notre Dame little reason to schedule tougher games.
Arsenal women confirmed for new FIFA tournament starting in 2028
The 2028 tournament will bring together 19 clubs from around the world, with Arsenal qualifying through their Champions League success.Photo by Harry Murphy/Getty ImagesArsenal will take part in the f...
Can Netanyahu win again? The secret to his political survival – and why it may finally fail him
Despite Oct. 7 and years of political turmoil, Benjamin Netanyahu remains competitive in the Israeli election
Muslims have always had to prove our Americanness. Enter Abdul El-Sayed
Michigan’s Democratic candidate for the U.S. Senate, Abdul El-Sayed, is many things to many people.
In Madison Opera’s first-ever ‘Norma,’ ‘the melodies are phenomenal’
Madison Opera presents Vincenzo Bellini’s bel canto masterpiece on Oct. 30 and Nov. 1 in Overture Hall to open its 2026-27 season.
How the Cap Times covered the Brewers’ 1982 World Series run
The Milwaukee Brewers are in the World Series for the first time in 44 years. Here’s how we covered the team’s first chance at baseball’s ultimate trophy.
Official statement
Santos FC would like to clarify that, due to construction work in the Ground-Level Stands, 437 seats will be closed for this Saturday’s match against Bahia.As a result, Vila Belmiro’s total capaci...
You Are What You Eat: An Alternative to MAHA for Healthy Food and Fewer Chemicals
CAP’s science-based plan would remove corporate and political influence from regulatory agencies, guarantee food safety, protect Americans from harmful chemicals in everyday products, and empower families to make healthy choices.
Friday's BR 26, BuLi on OneFootball and +; today's fixtures 📲
Today's highlights 🔥Bundesliga (German League)15:30 – Stuttgart vs Borussia Mönchengladbach – OneFootball PPV Série A (Brazilian League)20:00 – Cruzeiro vs Remo – SporTV, Premiere Premier...
Hoffenheim coach says that UEFA fixtures list is 'madness'
Hoffenheim coach Christian Ilzer has hit out at European governing body UEFA over player workload, especially in connection with national team duties. "The UEFA fixtures list is madness," Ilzer said after his team's 3-0 victory over Olympique Lyon on Thursday in the Europa League.
Fremantle Global Entertainment Exec Chris O'Dell Retires
Fremantle's global entertainment production chief, Chris O'Dell, is retiring after 19 years.
Fremantle Global Entertainment Exec Chris O’Dell Retires After 19 Years At ‘Got Talent’ Maker
Chris O’Dell, one of Fremantle’s longest-serving entertainment execs, is retiring from the Got Talent and X Factor company. He has been at RTL-owned Fremantle since 2007 and left just shy of 20 years ...
What a Health Care Crisis Looks Like on the Ground
In South Los Angeles, ER patients are cared for in a gift shop, in tents, and even outdoors. And that’s before the crushing Medicaid cuts.
NFL tells teams that uncalled hip-drop tackle on Aaron Rodgers was clear example of penalty
6 winners and losers from Patriots’ loss to the Bears
Drake Maye, Hunter Henry, and other noteworthy players from Week 7.
Scary Business Trick or Treat set for Sunday in Crestline
CRESTLINE – The Crestline Community Development Team (CCDT) is hosting Scary Business Trick or Treat from 4 to 5 p.m. Sunday, Oct. 25 in downtown Crestline. The costume contest will take place at 5:15 p.m. on the patio at The Hub. Contest age groups are 0-2, 3-5, 6-10, 11-13, and family/group. “Downtown is always full […]
What you should know about hidden science behind sports betting apps
Sports betting apps use behavioral science to keep users engaged, often outpacing state regulations and rules.
Overdose deaths have plunged. We need to know why
The humbling truth is that forces outside medical care and public health policies must be playing the biggest role in a dramatic drop in opioid overdose deaths, three health experts write.
America’s socialist surge and its hard limits
Socialism is gaining ground in the US, fuelled by anger over inequality and economic insecurity. But can its rising popularity translate into lasting political influence across the country? US author and academic Michael Kazin sheds light on the issue.
Managing the farm: What’s your Business IQ?
High-performing farmers master costs, cash flow and marketing. Low scorers are less likely to know their numbers.
Drops mar otherwise productive night for Colston Loveland
Despite a pair of bad drops, Colston Loveland still finished with 69 yards and a score in a Week 7 win over New England.
What happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas for England
England face Australia at the Women's Rugby League World Cup on Saturday determined to show they have moved on from the nightmare of their last meeting in Las Vegas 19 months ago.
Beloved Yankees Player Lands Job Managing His Former Japanese Team
Former New York Yankees star Hideki Matsui landed a job managing the Yomiuri Giants, his former team. The post Beloved Yankees Player Lands Job Managing His Former Japanese Team appeared first on HEAVY.
LA County Public Health reports first pair of flu deaths of the season
Hunter Henry leads Pats with seven receptions
Hunter Henry tallied a team-high seven receptions for 71 yards against the Chicago Bears in Week 7.
Forgotten record review: Painless jazz
Jazz is a niche market, and the folks who love jazz really love jazz. Their passion, and the cult-like nature of jazz, has given rise to a certain snobbery regarding jazz music. That snobbery is limited almost exclusively to the years 1947-1967.
Rhamondre Stevenson scores improbable touchdown in Week 7
Rhamondre Stevenson led the team with 93 yards receiving, which included a 48-yard TD against the Chicago Bears in Week 7.
Flu cases rise early in El Paso County as public health officials monitor respiratory illnesses
Increases in flu typically begin around Thanksgiving.
Mayo Clinic Health System in Eau Claire recognized as a world leader in digital innovation
Mayo Clinic in Eau Claire has ranked No. 46 for smart hospital in the world and No. 1 in Wisconsin by Newsweek’s “World’s Best Smart Hospitals 2027.”
Can you sue over spam calls in Florida? One business owner says he got 649 unwanted calls in days
Jordan Mason able to practice in full
Minnesota Vikings RB Jordan Mason logs full practice session
Middle East Conflict Puts F1’s Season Finale at Risk
F1 assures that Qatar and Abu Dhabi will be held according to the calendar, but it has already activated a contingency plan with Imola as an alternative venue.
'Generational rage': Young Europeans fight to be heard
From blockaded schools in Rome to tent camps in Madrid and street protests in France, young people across Europe are turning their anger on a political class they say is not listening.- 'Inspiring oth...
Pitbull admits he ‘got excited’ by Jennifer Lopez in viral 2011 AMAs photo. Here’s why
The duo have collaborated on songs including the 2011 track “On the Floor.”
New attention on Bankhead claim she was offered job to leave Senate race, DNC denies allegation
Montana’s U.S. Senate race was at the center of political controversy again this week, over an allegation from the Democratic nominee that she had been offered a job if she would drop out of the race.
Trump told Ramaswamy to thank God for ad featuring opponent’s estranged mother
High school flag football: Wednesday and Thursday scores
CIF City Section high school girls' flag football scores for Wednesday and Thursday.
Buccaneers' Legendary DT Warren Sapp in Hot Water Again
A viral video showing the Hall of Fame defensive tackle kicking a rival fan has reignited scrutiny over his controversial conduct away from the gridiron.
Celtics Get Mixed Injury News Ahead of Knicks Showdown
The Celtics receive mixed injury news ahead of their home opener against the Knicks, with one former first-round pick ruled out. The post Celtics Get Mixed Injury News Ahead of Knicks Showdown appeared first on HEAVY.
Rashee Rice unable to practice
Kansas City Chiefs WR Rashee Rice remains sidelined Thursday
Local business owners trained by OpenAI share thoughts on $20 billion data center
Small business owners who took part in a training session with OpenAI are sharing their thoughts on the company’s $20 billion data center project planned for Effingham County.
Pine and Mingo business owners seek answers from city council over construction impact
Over the past five weeks, several businesses near Pine and Mingo have watched their sales plummet upwards of 75% as a result of nearby road construction.
Advancing Women's Health Through Collaboration, Innovation and Entrepreneurship - Small Business & Entrepreneurship Council
White House initiative connects government, researchers, and private-sector innovators to accelerate discoveries and improve women’s health outcomes. By Karen Kerrigan – On October 19, I had the opportunity to attend the White House signing ceremony for President Donald Trump’s executive order, Advancing Women’s Health to Improve Outcomes in All Phases of Life, an initiative championed […]
Advancing Women's Health Through Collaboration, Innovation and Entrepreneurship - Small Business & Entrepreneurship Council
White House initiative connects government, researchers, and private-sector innovators to accelerate discoveries and improve women’s health outcomes. By Karen Kerrigan – On October 19, I had the opportunity to attend the White House signing ceremony for President Donald Trump’s executive order, Advancing Women’s Health to Improve Outcomes in All Phases of Life, an initiative championed […]
Pirates Top Prospect Gives Update After Midseason Injury
Pittsburgh Pirates' Seth Hernandez insists he's healthy after a season-ending injury.
Marlins Could Target Veteran Free Agent Due to New CBA
With a salary floor almost certain for next season, Miami should make an offer to Ian Happ
David Montgomery remains sidelined Thursday
Houston Texans RB David Montgomery misses another practice
Pine & Mingo business owners seek answers from city council over construction impact
Businesses worry as part of East Brainerd Road set to close for weekend storm drain work
Drivers planning weekend trips in the Chattanooga area may need to adjust their routes as part of East Brainerd Road is set to close for two days.One business i
One Bad Quarter Hurts Jazz in Season Opener
A dismal second-quarter collapse and Ty Jerome’s 45-point masterclass doomed Utah in Memphis, exposing critical defensive lapses and rebounding woes the Jazz must fix before their home opener.
Chemistry is Everywhere: Students Discover the Science Behind Everyday Life
Chemistry is Everywhere: Students Discover the Science Behind Everyday Life
2027 NFL Draft: Chargers mock draft update
The Chargers currently hold the No. 1 overall pick in the 2027 NFL Draft and we updated our Los Angeles mock draft with an eye on the offense.
With a congressional seat on the line, political groups race to win over undecided Colorado voters
‘Expendable’ Buffalo Bills WR Named NFL’s Top Trade Candidate
"Expendable" $30 million Bills WR called NFL's top trade candidate. The post ‘Expendable’ Buffalo Bills WR Named NFL’s Top Trade Candidate appeared first on HEAVY.
An Italian Day in Philadelphia: Science, Medicine and a Transatlantic Bridge
PHILADELPHIA, Oct. 19. A single human body carries trillions of bacteria. In women, those microbes rise and fall with estrogen, and they help decide who delivers a baby early, who gets an infection that will not clear, and who does not.
Holmen students try casting, tour ambulance during school's Science of Medicine Day
HOLMEN, Wis. (WXOW) – Third, fourth and fifth graders at Sand Lake Elementary stepped into the world of medicine Thursday morning.
Another limited practice for KC Concepcion
Browns WR KC Concepcion a limited participant Thursday because of two injuries
Dental implants can hijack your immune system, scientists discover
Researchers have uncovered a surprising reason dental implant infections often resist antibiotics: the implants themselves can contribute to the problem. Bacteria corrode titanium implants, releasing microscopic particles that hijack immune cells, trigger destructive inflammation, and accelerate jawbone loss.
One of Earth’s most powerful supervolcanoes is refilling with fresh magma
Deep beneath Japan’s Kikai caldera, a massive magma reservoir is refilling 7,300 years after one of the most powerful volcanic eruptions in Earth's recent geological history. Scientists used underwater seismic surveys to reveal a vast store of magma that appears to have accumulated since the ancient catastrophe. The discovery could help explain how supervolcanoes like Yellowstone and Toba rebuild their magma supplies.
A tiny defect in a crystal reveals a big quantum surprise
Researchers have solved a long-standing challenge in understanding how tiny defects in materials like diamond and silicon carbide behave when exposed to light. Their new computational method revealed a surprisingly important energy-loss mechanism in silicon carbide that scientists had previously underestimated. The finding helps explain a mystery that has puzzled researchers for years and could improve the design of quantum computers and sensors.
Withings and Function Integrate Connected Health Data with Comprehensive Lab Testing
Withings and Function have announced a partnership integrating connected health device measurements with comprehensive laboratory testing, enabling users to access daily biometric data and clinical results through both companies’ digital platforms. The integration aims to provide a more continuous view of individual health by combining routine measurements with periodic laboratory assessments.Under the agreement, Function members can synchronize data from Withings devices directly into the Function app, including body com...
Nut Consumption Ideal for Better Health - AG INFORMATION NETWORK OF TH
William Bordeau is the Executive Vice President at Harris Farms. He comments ob the big health benefits of coming tree nuts.
Faces cut out of Las Vegas campaign signs in political vandalism
Campaign signs for three Las Vegas candidates were vandalized near Cactus and Jones with faces cut out, as Metro Police report no incident was filed.
JSU forum examines health, water and economic effects of data centers
Jackson State University held a community forum Thursday to inform residents about data centers and their impact on the community.
Your Choice, Your Voice: how taxes and tariffs impact Maine businesses
Michael Knight is the co-owner of Smiling Hill Farm and Hillside Lumber. He said the tariffs are not impacting his product, as much is they're impacting other business costs.
Dak Prescott: Cowboys Media Scrutiny Comes With the Territory
The Cowboys are off to a rocky 2–4 start.
Former Cardinals Star J.J. Watt Reacts to CBS Sports Deal
Former Arizona Cardinals star J.J. Watt recently agreed to a multi-year deal with CBS Sports amid his rise in NFL broadcasting. The post Former Cardinals Star J.J. Watt Reacts to CBS Sports Deal appeared first on HEAVY.