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There’s a Reason That Netflix’s Ad Business Has Underwhelmed
Somewhat lost in the company’s slew of firings and engagement warnings over the past few weeks was the fact that Netflix is scaling back its ad forecast for 2026 from $3 billion to $2.7 billion. That’s despite the fact that: CTV is growing by 14-15% this year This year saw a monster upfront Netflix is the biggest streamer out there this side of YouTube, and was the platform that for years brands were supposedly dying to be a part of In other words, that’s an alarming pull-back from Netflix. A Wall Street analyst I spoke with last week was blunt, calling Netflix’s ad business “disappointing.” To me, a red flag on the ad front is that Netflix has never revealed how many ad-supported subscribers it has. Because if I know anything about how big companies work, if they have a positive number that makes them look really good - they tend to share it. (How many subs does go90 have right now? We’re not saying just yet. How are ads going on ChatGPT? Oh, a billion run rate - I see). Yes, to date Netflix has shared some fuzzy ad numbers, such as the idea that the company’s ad tier ‘reaches’ 250 million users globally.’ Here’s why that figure gives me pause: a)they lead with global, and b) they don’t explain how they are calculated. (Are they based on average people in each room? Surveys of some kind?). Regardless, some insiders say that Netflix’s ad tier is scaling nicely - others not so much. Either way, one of Netflix’s biggest challenge on the ad front appears to have been its starting point. Remember, when Netflix launched ads in 2022, it had 73 million subs in the US and Canada. That’s 73 million people who were used to Netflix with zero ads. And when the ad product rolled out, the company clearly was going after new users - a limited pool of potential subscribers by default. That focus seems to have changed over time, as Netflix has tried to convert longtime subscribers to the ad tier. Historically Netflix subscribers are very sticky. But is the company’s low churn a problem? Not necessarily, according to Antenna data. Rather, Netflix’s consumer loyalty is a bit of a double-edged sword. “Netflix is the one streamer which actually has seen substantial “trade downs” but has much lower ‘win backs,’ said Antenna founder Jonathan Carson (win-backs being people who were on the ad-free plan, cancelled, then rejoined on the ad plan). “Netflix has lower churn and so has less opportunity to win back old subs with a lower cost plan option.” This all might explain why Netflix has been so slow to roll out all of these table stakes targeting options until just this week. It likely didn’t have enough users to carve up into various targets. etc. However, what really hit Netflix’s ad business was Amazon’s move a few years ago to turn on advertising for Prime Video by default. Suddenly the market was awash in premium inventory, and Netflix was playing catch-up on multiple fronts. Thus, the streaming giant appears to still be figuring out if if wants lead in ‘programmatic TV,’ or premium ‘upfront’ TV sales. “The CTV market now sorts into three businesses, and Netflix is not the leader of any of them,” wrote analyst Jack Myers. Ouch. So how does Netflix ratchet up its ads business? Get the next NFL package You’re gonna have to wait until 2030 unless one of the bigger media companies like Skydance opts out, but the easiest (not cheapest) way for Netflix to become a huge TV ads contender is to get one of the regular NFL packages, ideally Sunday afternoons. That way it can sell ads to its whole U.S. subs base overnight. Go FAST This one is risky, because to program a compelling FAST channel, you’d likely have to take some older Netflix exclusive shows and make them available for free to non-subscribers. But FASTs, for better or worse, are ad-inventory machines. Go full UGC I’m not sure I see this happening. There is something already off about Netflix carrying podcasts and shows for creators. The experience sticks out in what is such a produced, and generally non-communal environment. But Netflix could open up its platform by allowing creators to upload videos without having to be approved by the service. But that opens a whole other can of worms (policing brand safety, copyright infringement, overall quality). Make a huge RMN Deal I was going to suggest something crazy, such as ‘instead of buying Warner Brothers, Netflix should buy Target. But the company doesn’t want to be in the brick and mortar business. Yet for Netflix’s ad business to compete in an Amazon world, it needs to be able to connect ad exposures to shopping. What if, instead of letting Amazon target Netflix viewers with its DSP, Netflix inked a deal with Target, or even took control of Roundel, and created its version of the Amazon full-funnel for brands? Price us out. I hope they don’t do this, but Netflix’s price increases - while significant - haven’t been enough to push long-term customers out of the ad-free tier. But if they made those prices so prohibitive, it could push large swaths of consumers to trade down. Then again, that could also dent engagement - as binging becomes much less appealing once you bring ads into the equation. Or, they could just launch a bunch of hit shows and maybe everyone will quickly forget all this angst. More from Amazon unBoxed A few weeks ago, I recorded two podcasts live at Amazon’s unBoxed event in San Francisco. I was able to go really deep with several brand partners about how Amazon’s various data and ad products work - particularly the under appreciated Amazon Marketing Cloud. First, I talked with Laura Abadias Velilla, of the Amazon specialty agency Amerge, along with Amazon’s own Charlotte Maines, Vice President, Devices Content & Advertising, about how the two partners helped a very specific printer company Epson launch into a brand new category - high end projectors. It’s a great example of how brands connect audience data across platforms to make budget deployment decisions. Next, I chatted with Monks VP Head of Digital Investment for North America Tom Burchill about how the agency actually brought in data from Linkedin to help target B2B customers across various Amazon properties for the brand Quicken. Check it out: Check these out, or just listen:
Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon on AI’s economic impact: ‘There’s very little that we do where we need frontier models’
"The important thing is to get it right, not to get it quicker," Solomon told small businesses of his $500 million AI push with OpenAI, Anthropic, Google and Meta.
Alabama Football 2026 vs Texas A&M: Previewing the Aggie Defense
A Mike Elko defense may not be the best thing for a “get right” game for the Alabama offense.
Picking Week 8 of college football in the Big Ten
Who can we expect to see win in the Big Ten this week?
9 former celebrity couples who say divorce actually brought them closer
Who says divorce can’t have a happy ending? From Gwyneth Paltrow to Courteney Cox, these stars say splitting up actually brought them closer to their exes.
⭐ Ballon d'OF: our fifth pick is…
The 2026 Ballon d'Or winner will be revealed this Monday, October 26. To mark the occasion, OneFootball's French editorial team cast their votes to crown their Ballon d'OF winner for the 2025-2026 sea...
Three Of The Earth’s Five Mass Extinctions May Not Have Been What We Thought
While more gradual processes may reduce how dramatic these events look in hindsight, it also makes human-induced extinction stick out more severely.
SpaceX bear flips to big bull because of AI business. Analyst now sees 70% gain
PhillipCapital moved its rating on the Elon Musk giant to buy from sell, with the bullishness stemming from the company's AI business.
Gasperini requests two signings in January
January is approaching, when the transfer window reopens, and Gasperini is asking Roma for reinforcements. Sporting director D’Amico has confirmed that something will likely happen. According to Tut...
NFL Analyst Shares Minnesota Vikings Clear Advantages over Indianapolis Colts
Minnesota’s top-ranked scoring defense and a surging ground game look to exploit Indianapolis’s red-zone struggles and league-worst rush EPA in this lopsided interconference showdown.
Bogdan Bogdanović Could Steal Reed Sheppard’s Minutes in Houston
As the Rockets are laser-focused on their postseason success, Ime Udoka might lean more on Houston’s veteran offseason addictions. See how that can impact a young star on the rise, and why it all might be a part of the plan in H-Town.
What will Trump do if Republicans lose the midterms?
Jonathan Freedland and Guardian US columnist Moira Donegan answer your questions about the midterms.
A Krehbiel matriarch sold her condo in a State Parkway classic
Kay Krehbiel, widow of one of the brothers who built Molex into a multibillion-dollar company, sold the unit in one of architect Benjamin Marshall's finest buildings, completed in 1911.
Why I started DE Gameday high school sports show
The weekly interview show hosted by Brandon Holveck features top athletes from across all Delaware high school sports.
24-team playoff will ruin college football’s regular season
A 24-team tournament rewards college football’s biggest brands and gives programs such as Notre Dame little reason to schedule tougher games.
16 celebrity couples you had no idea dated
Celebrity romances rarely stay secret, but some manage to fly under the radar. Revisit 16 surprising Hollywood couples, from forgotten flings to relationships you never knew existed.
Macklemore Criticizes ICE As He Launches ‘Free Palestine’ Tour
The concert was Macklemore’s first since he was dropped from Ed Sheeran’s tour.
Scully hopes to stay at Exeter for 'many more years'
Anthony Scully hopes he can extend his stay at Exeter City after his impressive start to life at the League Two club.
Can Netanyahu win again? The secret to his political survival – and why it may finally fail him
Despite Oct. 7 and years of political turmoil, Benjamin Netanyahu remains competitive in the Israeli election
Westfield science teacher is honored as Mass. Project Lead the Way Teacher of the Year
Westfield High School physics teacher Renee Sweeney was surprised with the 2026 Massachusetts PLTW Teacher of the Year award for her engaging, applied-learning engineering courses.
How the brain handles uncertainty, and why resilience matters
The science of handling uncertainty, anxiety and stress
Muslims have always had to prove our Americanness. Enter Abdul El-Sayed
Michigan’s Democratic candidate for the U.S. Senate, Abdul El-Sayed, is many things to many people.
In Madison Opera’s first-ever ‘Norma,’ ‘the melodies are phenomenal’
Madison Opera presents Vincenzo Bellini’s bel canto masterpiece on Oct. 30 and Nov. 1 in Overture Hall to open its 2026-27 season.
Why a world without friction is a world without progress
Tribologists study friction: what happens when things rub together. It’s indispensable, from the wheel to the paths of stars
Official statement
Santos FC would like to clarify that, due to construction work in the Ground-Level Stands, 437 seats will be closed for this Saturday’s match against Bahia.As a result, Vila Belmiro’s total capaci...
Hoffenheim coach says that UEFA fixtures list is 'madness'
Hoffenheim coach Christian Ilzer has hit out at European governing body UEFA over player workload, especially in connection with national team duties. "The UEFA fixtures list is madness," Ilzer said after his team's 3-0 victory over Olympique Lyon on Thursday in the Europa League.
Irish state agency rolls out seafood advisory program, connecting businesses with expert consultants
Bord Iascaigh Mhara (BIM) recently rolled out the Seafood Business Advisory Program, providing Irish seafood firms with access to external experts.
What a Health Care Crisis Looks Like on the Ground
In South Los Angeles, ER patients are cared for in a gift shop, in tents, and even outdoors. And that’s before the crushing Medicaid cuts.
Access Health CT open enrollment begins
Open enrollment for Access Health CT, the state’s official marketplace for Affordable Care Act coverage, is open now through Jan. 15.
Brazil's runoff: Lula's legacy vs. Bolsonaro's dynasty
Brazil's tight presidential runoff pits a political giant against a Bolsonaro heir in a battle over the country's political future.
What you should know about hidden science behind sports betting apps
Sports betting apps use behavioral science to keep users engaged, often outpacing state regulations and rules.
Sports quiz of the week: eagles, ultra-endurance feats and assist records
Have you followed the big stories in football, rugby, baseball, snooker, NFL, cricket, F1, cricket and cycling?
Managing the farm: What’s your Business IQ?
High-performing farmers master costs, cash flow and marketing. Low scorers are less likely to know their numbers.
Photos: Best images from Thunder's 96-84 win over Nuggets
The best photos from the Oklahoma City Thunder's 96-84 win over the Denver Nuggets.
What is going on at 'chaotic' Newcastle?
Will the alarm bells be ringing at Newcastle United if they lose to struggling Crystal Palace on Sunday?
School board candidates support more mental health care, differ on approach
Candidates for school boards around the state generally agreed with a new law that will require the hiring of more mental health counselors, but those responding to a survey said more resources will be needed, while some called for more parental involvement.
What happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas for England
England face Australia at the Women's Rugby League World Cup on Saturday determined to show they have moved on from the nightmare of their last meeting in Las Vegas 19 months ago.
Beloved Yankees Player Lands Job Managing His Former Japanese Team
Former New York Yankees star Hideki Matsui landed a job managing the Yomiuri Giants, his former team. The post Beloved Yankees Player Lands Job Managing His Former Japanese Team appeared first on HEAVY.
Messi sparks euphoria in Oviedo before Princesa de Asturias award
The Argentinian footballer has arrived in Oviedo with Antonela Roccuzzo, greeting hundreds of fans awaiting him. This Friday he will receive the 2026 Princess of Asturias Award for Sports.View on euronews
Postpartum recovery may influence long-term maternal aging and health
Jesse Poganik, PhD, of the Division of Genetics within the Department of Medicine at Mass General Brigham, is the senior author of a paper published in Trends in Endocrinology & Metabolism, "The Postpartum Recovery Window as a Determinant of Maternal Aging." Stephen Albright, formerly of Mass General Brigham, is the lead author.
Chancellor plans to end pointless paperwork to cut £800m business costs
Ministers say the changes in regulations will reduce unnecessary bureaucracy.
How citizen science is tracking changes in shorelines around the world
An app and a camera phone are all that’s needed at more than 200 spots to help researchers monitor coastal areas
Another disappointing showing for A.J. Brown
A.J. Brown was targeted six times in Week 7, catching half of them for 48 yards in a loss to the Chicago Bears.
Patriots try unconventional late-game tactic in loss to Bears
The plan did not yield the desired results, but it was at least creative.
Julia Roberts honors “Steel Magnolias” dad Tom Skerritt upon his death at 93
Skerritt died of natural causes, his family said in a statement.
Immigrant priest struggles with health issues after ICE detention
SIA unveils KrisWorld upgrades for better work, wellness and entertainment
From 4K screens and Bluetooth pairing to wellness features, the airline will roll out upgrades on 41 retrofitted Airbus A350s and incoming Boeing 777-9s from 2027.
AI in Teaching: What the Science of Learning Already Tells Us
Explore how the science of learning can guide AI in teaching and higher education, helping instructors support student learning with evidence-based strategies.
Il Volo celebrates nearly 20 years of musical harmony
Longer than many marriages and most rock bands, the Italian singing trio Il Volo have been together for almost 20 years. They’ve gone from teenagers to 30-somethings while selling more
Business briefs, 10.23.26
Thomas & Hutton employee selected for Leadership Camden
Scotia construction leads one business to close, other businesses frustrated
Your Local News Leader
Steelers climb AFC playoff standings after Bears defeat Patriots
Steelers climb playoff standings after Patriots’ loss to Bears.
Giants’ strong special teams unit has one big weakness: counting
One of the best special teams units in the NFL can’t keep getting burned by something as simple as counting to 11.
Capcom Data Breach Results In Unauthorised Access To More Than 11.7 Million 'CAPCOM ID' Accounts
"We would like to sincerely apologize"
Jordan Mason able to practice in full
Minnesota Vikings RB Jordan Mason logs full practice session
Laurel Sports Hall of Fame holds ceremony for inaugural class
After making waves through the streets of the City Beautiful, former athletic stars had their names etched in Laurel history.
T.J. Hockenson practices Thursday
Minnesota Vikings TE T.J. Hockenson a full go at Thursday's practice
Middle East Conflict Puts F1’s Season Finale at Risk
F1 assures that Qatar and Abu Dhabi will be held according to the calendar, but it has already activated a contingency plan with Imola as an alternative venue.
Full practice for Jordan Addison
Minnesota Vikings WR Jordan Addison logs full practice on Thursday
Michigan vs. Indiana: All-Time Series, Last Meeting And More
Michigan will host Indiana this weekend in a game with a lot of interesting story lines.
RWJBarnabas Health Celebrates the 10th Anniversary of The Beth Greenhouse and 50,000 Pounds of Fresh Produce in Newark
Newark Beth Israel Medical Center celebrated the 10th anniversary of The Beth Greenhouse, a hydroponic greenhouse that has provided more than 50,000 pounds of fresh produce to Newark residents and patients while promoting nutrition, wellness and food security throughout the community.
How Aggressive Should Toronto Blue Jays Be Before Lockout?
How teams will act before Dec. 2 will be very interesting to see.
Boston 25 News
Road closures, blocked parking lots and construction equipment have made it difficult for customers to get around downtown and, business owners say, even harder to get people through their doors.
Health care, housing, wages: Josh Turek outlines campaign goals at Davenport rally
Iowa Senate candidate Josh Turek made a stop in the Quad Cities Thursday, meeting with voters at Modern Woodmen Park.
Oakland Coliseum hopes to become new sports, entertainment hub
The Bay Area's Local News Station
Buccaneers' Legendary DT Warren Sapp in Hot Water Again
A viral video showing the Hall of Fame defensive tackle kicking a rival fan has reignited scrutiny over his controversial conduct away from the gridiron.
Thursday Night Football: Luther Burden, Bears lead Patriots 20-14 at halftime
3 Game Boy games added to Nintendo Classics
Nintendo has added three more classic Game Boy games to Nintendo Switch Online: Revenge of the ‘Gator, Avenging Spirit, and Mole Mania.
Marlins Could Target Veteran Free Agent Due to New CBA
With a salary floor almost certain for next season, Miami should make an offer to Ian Happ
David Montgomery remains sidelined Thursday
Houston Texans RB David Montgomery misses another practice
Meriden tax business owner accused of filing 4,335 fraudulent returns
Prosecutors said many of the tax returns included fraudulent deductions.
Former Vice President Harris joins campaign trail to hear rural healthcare concerns
Former Vice President Kamala Harris joined U.S. Senate candidate Scott Colom and Mississippi health care providers in Clarksdale to hear how limited access to care is affecting rural families.
Matthew Golden limited Thursday
Green Bay Packers WR Matthew Golden dealing with shoulder injury
With a congressional seat on the line, political groups race to win over undecided Colorado voters
50 Cent allegedly bailed out suspect accused of assaulting Rick Ross' son
50 Cent allegedly bailed out a 20-year-old man identified in police filings as Don Roberts, who is accused of pistol-whipping Rick Ross’ son, 21-year-old William Roberts III. The two rappers have been feuding since the late 2000s.
Jaylen Waddle limited Thursday
Chest injury limits Denver Broncos WR Jaylen Waddle Thursday
Holmen students try casting, tour ambulance during school's Science of Medicine Day
HOLMEN, Wis. (WXOW) – Third, fourth and fifth graders at Sand Lake Elementary stepped into the world of medicine Thursday morning.
Jeremiyah Love remains sidelined Thursday
Arizona Cardinals RB Jeremiyah Love still dealing with ankle injury
Another limited practice for KC Concepcion
Browns WR KC Concepcion a limited participant Thursday because of two injuries
Health Organizations Release Revised Physician Practice Framework
The Royal College of Physicians and Surgeons of Canada’s revised framework for physician education and practice emphasizes health equity and technology.
The business case for pro bono: indirect benefits with social impact
Pro bono work has evolved into a driving force within Argentina’s legal profession, expanding access to justice while strengthening law firms, lawyers and civil society organisations. Through collaboration and institutional commitment, it has become a powerful tool for talent development, reputation building and long-term impact.
‘Most magical place’: How Dublin Influences This Mother-Daughter Business: Business NH Magazine
Today, Webber and her daughter, Kate Webber, operate The Gratitude Farm, a Dublin-based studio and business that combines Donni’s nature-inspired pottery with Kate’s landscape paintings.
Nonprofits warn online sports betting initiatives put vulnerable Nebraskans at risk
The Open Door Mission hosted Gambling with the Good Life this morning to speak out against Initiatives 440 and 441, two measures that would amend the Nebraska Constitution to legalize online sports gambling.
Your Choice, Your Voice: how taxes and tariffs impact Maine businesses
Michael Knight is the co-owner of Smiling Hill Farm and Hillside Lumber. He said the tariffs are not impacting his product, as much is they're impacting other business costs.
This Is Carolina: Self-taught mechanic with Autism takes his business on the road
A Myrtle Beach man with autism who taught himself auto repair is launching a mobile mechanic business with his father.
Jack Clark: a billion virtual scientists are coming
Anthropic co-founder Jack Clark told the IMF the singularity has begun and AI could put a billion virtual scientists to work if labs can test the results.
Former Cardinals Star J.J. Watt Reacts to CBS Sports Deal
Former Arizona Cardinals star J.J. Watt recently agreed to a multi-year deal with CBS Sports amid his rise in NFL broadcasting. The post Former Cardinals Star J.J. Watt Reacts to CBS Sports Deal appeared first on HEAVY.
The next-gen Xbox won’t cost you $1,800. It can’t. Can it?
Didn’t Microsoft say the next Xbox needed to be affordable?