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News Bites: Minnesota Immigrants, ICE, and Politics
A noise demonstration is scheduled in Albert Lea Sunday on behalf of a 23-year-old man with serious health issues who has been in ICE-related detention for 14 months. And Keith Ellison updates campaign volunteers on cases against ICE agents.
When 1 + 1 = 1: The Miserable Math Behind Many Media Mergers
(Welcome to the “Most Important Story of the Week”, my bi-weekly strategy column analyzing the most important (but often not buzziest) news story of the last two weeks. I’m the Entertainment Strategy Guy, a former streaming executive who now analyzes business strategy in the entertainment industry. Please subscribe.) The last few issues of this newsletter have circled two topics: September’s streaming viewership and all the Paramount/Skydance/Warner Bros./Discovery merger news. I’m happy to say on the Streaming Ratings Report front, we’ll be all caught up by early next week, then the SRR will come out on a tight weekly schedule. Then, after today, I’ll have slayed my PSWbD dragon. It’s such a big story, it demanded multiple issues. With the announcement of a name (just Skydance) and executive team, though, I think we can almost close the book on this story. In terms of topics, it becomes just another studio to cover. So today, I have one last set of takes on that merger. As I’ve sat with it, reading about who was staying and who was going, a big worry crystallized in my brain, and I gotta get that take out. Plus, I still owe you a host of “ugliness” that didn’t fit in my previous “The Good, The Bad and The Ugly” takes. Let’s dive in! Subscribe Most Important Story of the Week - As Paramount Shuffles Deck Chairs, Will They Build or Consolidate? On social media—I try to avoid most social media platforms, but sometimes I end up checking in—the best joke I saw about the announcement of the new name of Skydance was from fellow reporter Claire Atkinson who pointed out… Yeah, I laughed out loud at that one. Later, though, I saw another Twitter response (that later got deleted, so I can’t shout the person out) that did give me pause. The person noted that the Titanic film made the better analogy: a super expensive project everyone in the town doubted that went on to conquer the globe. So yeah: on one hand, the image of the Titanic recalls the actual ship and its infamous end, but that clip is from a movie which proved the doubters wrong. So for all the skepticism of the latest massive media merger, one could wonder which way this one goes. Does it crash like the Titanic or rise to glory like Titanic, the movie? Either way, this deal is “Titanic”, looking at the massive debt required to close the deal, which is not going well when it comes to borrowing costs for Paramount… …or borrowing costs for Oracle. But I’ve started to get worried about another outcome: the sum of this merger will be smaller and weaker and less profitable than its former parts. In other words, one plus one won’t equal three or two, but an even smaller number. Skydance paid to take a traditional studio off the board, but they won’t really capture the upside. Let me explain what I mean, but first, let’s look at the series of news that inspired this thought. Skydance Sets Its Leadership Team As soon as the Paramount-Skydance-Warner Bros.-Discovery merger closed, the new leadership team announced a new name—Skydance, which I’ll use going forward—and a new executive leadership team. You’ve probably read through all the executive shuffling, but if you haven’t, here’s a quick, incomplete summary, in rough order of importance: Mattel’s CEO Ynon Kreiz—who previously ran Maker Studios—joined as co-CEO with David Ellison. HBO/HBO Max’s Casey Bloys will stay and run streaming. Former head of streaming for Paramount-Skydance Cindy Holland—who was also at Netflix—will depart. The former heads of Warner Bros.—Pam Abdy and Mike De Luca—are out. The film studios will be run by Dana Goldstein and Josh Greenstein. George Cheeks of Paramount will run Skydance TV, controlling all the TV production units. In comic book news, the DC films will still be run by Peter Gunn and Peter Safran. Lastly, the head of CNN, Mark Thompson, will stay in place. Let’s quickly opine on the particulars before diving into the broad ramifications. We’re just getting started with this issue, but the rest is for paid subscribers of the Entertainment Strategy Guy, so if you’d like to find out… Who I like and dislike in their next gigs… Why I think this consolidation will likely leave Skydance worse off… The math behind which mergers succeed and which don’t… A lot more ugliness in this merger… And a whole lot more... ...please subscribe! We can only keep doing this great work with your support.
David Ellison expects CBS to be in business with NFL for ‘foreseeable future’
Skydance CEO David Ellison is full speed ahead on a press tour to promote his freshly combined media company, which formally brought together Paramount and Warner Bros. Discovery after a lengthy process earlier this week. Since the company’s formal combination, Ellison has fielded questions during a press conference and given a handful of interviews. Most…
Ellison expects Skydance to stay in business with NFL for ‘foreseeable future’
Skydance Chair & CEO David Ellison said the new media conglomerate anticipates 'being in business with the NFL for the foreseeable future.'
Skydance CEO David Ellison: AI is going to transform every part of the business
CNBC’s David Faber and David Ellison, Skydance Chairman & CEO, and Ynon Kreiz, Skydance co-CEO, join 'Squawk Box' to discuss Paramount's $110 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery, what to expect from the new combined entity, the decision to bring Ynon Kreiz on board, future of the company's linear, streaming and movie businesses, integration of AI, and more.
State AG sees rural care in action at Sanford Bemidji
Attorney General Keith Ellison toured Sanford Health in Bemidji to learn about efforts to expand healthcare access across northern Minnesota.
Skydance now runs two of Hollywood’s legacy film studios. A look at the new company, by the numbers
David Ellison’s Paramount Skydance has completed its $81 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery, bringing two of Hollywood’s most storied legacy film studios under one mammoth media and entertainment conglomerate named Skydance. Now, Skydance must decide how to make the most out of a trove of entertainment assets, including the HBO Max and Paramount+ video streaming services, a film library that includes “Star Trek,” “Barbie,” “Top Gun,” “Harry Potter,” and “Superman,” and two major news organizations, CNN and CBS News. Here’s a look at the new company, by the numbers.
David Ellison backs CNN’s Trump lawsuit, pledges editorial independence
CNN’s new owner, David Ellison, says he supports CNN’s legal action against the Trump administration over White House access, and will not interfere in the news organization’s coverage.
Paramount-Warner Bros. Discovery merger closes, creates combined company Skydance
David Ellison, CEO of Paramount Skydance, speaks during CinemaCon 2026 on April 16, 2026, in Las Vegas, Nevada. (David Becker/Getty Images for CinemaCon)
Why I Don’t Think Ride Or Die Should Have Been Cancelled (And What Company Should Save It...)
(Welcome to my weekly streaming ratings report, the single best guide to what’s popular in streaming TV and what isn’t. I’m the Entertainment Strategy Guy, a former streaming executive who now analyzes business strategy in the entertainment industry. If you were forwarded this email, please subscribe to get these insights each week.) So…I recently came across a Reddit thread, talking about films on streaming, wondering why there are no reliable sources out there for streaming ratings data. Sigh. Honestly, as annoyed as I am that so many still don’t realize that we have streaming ratings, I somewhat get it. Until now, there was such a long delay between when a show or film came to streaming and when we got its viewership data; I understand why people were confused. (But, as you know, this just changed.) Also, even back in the day, how many people knew how well films did on television? Luckily, as a reader, you’re in the know. Okay, on to this week’s issue. I want to take a look at Prime Video cancelling Ride or Die and whether I agree with that decision. Overall, we didn’t have any breakout hits (no TV shows landed over 20 million hours according to Nielsen) but we have a lot of steady performers on the streaming charts. Plus, we’ll look at where $50 million in missing box office dollars went. (Spoiler: straight-to-streaming.) All that, plus new episodes of The Secret Lives of Mormon Wives, Supergirl heads to streaming, a new YA show does well on Netflix, the viewership for the Daily Wire’s $50 million fantasy show, what TV show hit-maker can’t make streaming hits, CD sales, all the flops, bombs and misses, and a whole lot more. Let’s dive right in! (Reminder: The streaming ratings report focuses on the U.S. market and compiles data from Nielsen’s weekly top ten viewership ranks, Luminate’s Top Ten Data, JustWatch and Reelgood interest data, Samba TV household viewership, company datecdotes, Netflix hours viewed data, Google Trends, and IMDb to determine the most popular content. While most data points are current, Nielsen’s data covers the weeks of September 7th to September 13th, 2026. You can find a link to my terminology here.) Subscribe Television - Ride or Die Is a Hit…But It Got Cancelled? What The Data “Says” I hate the phrase “here’s what the data says”, even though sometimes I find myself using it. If data just told us everything, we data folks would be out of a job! Data is often messy, complicated and nuanced. When it comes to strategy, many of the best decisions can’t actually use “data”, since it’s vastly too complicated to model. Anyways, I’ve been singing the praises of Prime Video’s Ride Or Die this summer, a show that did very well for them. And yet…it got cancelled. Now, usually when a show gets cancelled, a bunch of websites say “a hit show got cancelled”... Here’s the thing, though: in this case, they’re right! The data “says” that this show was a hit. Specifically, out of 522 first seasons to make a week on the Nielsen charts since 2020, it’s the 75th biggest. On Amazon, Ride or Die is eighth out of 41 first seasons: That’s top 15th percentile all time, almost exactly, which is my definition of a “hit”! I mean, outside of Reacher, Amazon needed a hit this summer! (Admittedly, Off Campus did well for Amazon in the spring, but Ride or Die performed even better.) So what happened? Why did Amazon cancel one of their rare 2026 bright spots? Well, Deadline reported a reason—which I’ll get to—but I’d break it down into three relevant questions: What is a given streamer’s reasoning? Is that reasoning sound? Could the stated reason not be the real reason? According to Deadline, Amazon felt the show “over-indexed” in middle-aged women. (This was based on leaks from within Amazon.) The logic is this: Amazon already reaches this demographic because of unlimited two-day shipping bundled with Prime, so they don’t really need more shows like this. Now, it’s my job to ask if that’s a good reason, and I’ll be honest, in this case, I don’t think it is. Sure, this show may “over-index” in middle-aged women—I’ll just assume that’s the case here—but I think folks often oversell how important over-indexing actually is. When a show is a “hit”, it isn’t a bit bigger than its rivals; it’s usually multiples bigger. For example, Elle only made the charts for two weeks at 8.3 million hours each. So Ride or Die was 80% bigger in its first two weeks, and likely had a much stronger hold, with its terrific 13 million hours in week three. Ride or Die was nearly three times bigger than Sterling Point through three weeks too. And that means that _Elle, Sterling Point a_nd other Amazon YA shows need to not just over-index a little with younger women (assuming that’s who Amazon prefers over middle-aged women), but massively over-index. Otherwise, more people in that demo (and a bunch more besides) likely watched Ride or Die. (I’ll try to explore this concept more in a future article.) And don’t get me started on how Ride or Die did compared to a certain (very, very popular, possibly the world’s most popular) YouTuber’s reality show…which didn’t make the charts after its first week and likely cost much, much more than Ride or Die. All to say, Amazon-MGM Studios/Prime Video can tell reporters that this show didn’t reach the right audience, but that excuse feels weak to me. So this leads to the third question: could other reasons have come into play? Yes! Renewal or cancellation decisions rarely (I’m tempted to say “never”) boil down to one variable. At its simplest, it’s two things: budget versus viewership. But often factors like critical acclaim, ownership and, yes, personal opinion come into play. In this case, Amazon has a new executive running things, and this show isn’t owned by Amazon-MGM Studios (unlike Elle). And yes, it may not have indexed with the right target viewers, too. Likely all of those factors came into play.1 My guess is ownership ended up mattering most. Amazon doesn’t own Ride or Die. It’s actually produced by another major studio. Fortunately/allegedly, this show is being shopped around. I can think of one brand new CEO who should consider it for one of his two major streamers…especially if he wants to rebuild goodwill in Hollywood. His name is on this list of exec producers of Ride or Die… If David Ellison needs some goodwill—and he does—rescue this female-led show tomorrow and grab some good headlines for a day. The data justifies it. Quick Notes on TV We’re just getting started with this issue, but the rest is for paid subscribers of the Entertainment Strategy Guy, so if you’d like to find out… How The Secret Lives of Mormon Wives latest season did on Hulu, post-controversy... Whether Supergirl soared on HBO Max... Why the box office is losing money due to the streamers... The viewership for the Daily Wire’s $50 million fantasy show... Updates on The Gentlemen, Lanterns, Outer Banks, King of the Hill and more... What former hit-maker has three streaming flops in a row... Whether The Mandalorian and Grogu popped in week two... All the flops, bombs and misses... And a whole lot more... ...please subscribe! We can only keep doing this great work with your support. If you want an idea of just how much content you’d get in a full issue, check out this older issue. Coming Soon! Oh man, we’re almost caught up! We just have two more issues, then the streaming Ratings Report will be coming out just two weeks after a TV show premieres! Next issue, I’ll be looking at the first two weeks of the NFL Thursday night games on streaming, a huge new spinoff, Reacher’s Neagly on Prime Video, and the latest edition of Monster: The Lizzie Borden Story on Netflix, the return of Slow Horses on Apple and MobLand (quietly one of their biggest shows) on Paramount+, and Dancing with the Stars on both ABC and Disney+. Plus I’ll take a look at animation for adults in 2026. The week after, a ton of movies are coming to streaming: Toy Story 5 on Disney+, Backrooms on HBO Max, Jackass: Best and Last on Paramount+ and The Breadwinner on Netflix, plus a Unabomber film on Netflix and a romcom on Prime Video. Woody Harrelson and Matthew McConaughey have a show on Apple, along with a game show inspired by Willy Wonka that everyone seems to hate. Long term, some crazy (but hopefully crazy like a fox) IP news. FX ordered a new Sons of Anarchy show from Charlie Hunnam, but it’s not about the biker gang. No, it features the show’s cast playing themselves in a new “meta-thriller”. Huh. And a lot of the cast is coming back. Next, Ryan Gosling is producing a Flintstones movie about a “grown-up Bamm-Bamm Rubble”. Also, huh. This one is in “early development” so we’ll see what happens. Both projects are based on IP, but also seem to have crazy takes on the IP, which I like.
David Ellison names Skydance team that includes prominent Warner executives
Paramount Skydance Chief Executive David Ellison has rolled out his Skydance executive team, which includes several senior Warner Bros. executives who will segue into new roles at the soon-to-be merged
Mary McNamara: As David Ellison names his new empire Skydance, the message is clear: He owns Hollywood
LOS ANGELES — What a surprise. David Ellison has decided to name the Frankenstudio media company created by the merger of Paramount Skydance and Warner Bros. Discovery simply Skydance. And
Skydance Executive Team Set By David Ellison Ahead of Deal Close
Skydance announced the executive leadership for the combined Paramount-Warner Bros. Discovery.
Can Skydance CEO David Ellison Make Paramount-Warner Bros. Merger Fly?
David Ellison has to prove the merged Paramount-Warner Bros., dubbed Skydance, can become a profitable Hollywood powerhouse amid its massive debt.
David Ellison just brought in a co-CEO to run his new empire: Meet Ynon Kreiz
Ynon Kreiz's appointment as co-CEO of Skydance answers a key governance question for Ellison's soon-to-be-merged company.
David Ellison's Skydance is a pretty name. What it stands for isn't
By naming the product of two mergers Skydance, David Ellison relegates two of Hollywood's founding studios to a sub-brand stew and attempts to erase a bunch of controversial hires.
European Leaders Mostly Optimistic About Paramount-WB's Future
European industry leaders are cautiously optimistic now that Paramount is about to complete its takeover of Warner Bros., but there are many unknowns.
Paramount-Warner Bros. Discovery will be called Skydance
David Ellison, CEO of Paramount Skydance, speaks during CinemaCon 2026 on April 16, 2026, in Las Vegas, Nevada. (David Becker/Getty Images for CinemaCon)
Paramount, Warner Bros. will be named Skydance after merger
David Ellison said the merged Paramount and Warner Bros. Discovery will be called Skydance — the moniker he picked nearly two decades ago when the tech scion began building his
Politics Friday: Keith Ellison, Ron Schutz appear in their first attorney general race debate
Friday at noon, the first head-to-head debate in the race for Minnesota attorney general. In his bid for a third term, DFL incumbent Keith Ellison faces Republican Ron Schutz, a prominent Twin Cities attorney.
New name of Paramount-Warner Bros. revealed
CEO David Ellison announced that the merger between Paramount and Warner Bros. will result in Skydance ahead of the official deal closure on Oct. 6.
Paramount’s Warner Bros. megamerger will just be called Skydance
David Ellison doesn’t want a ‘new corporate identity’ to overshadow Warner Bros. and Paramount’s brands.
Paramount, Warner Bros. combine as new entity Skydance, David Ellison announces
He announced the updated on X
New Paramount Warner Bros. Name is Skydance, David Ellison Says
Paramount and Warner Bros. will exist as sub-brands in the larger corporate brand.
CNN chief Mark Thompson in talks to remain in role after Paramount takes over network
Paramount Chief Executive David Ellison has approached Thompson about staying in charge following the merger with Warner Bros. Discovery.
Inside Larry Ellison's Wide Web of Power, Money and Politics, As Oracle's Data Centers Claim Force Majeure
The $200 billion software titan has suctioned himself to many hubs of influence—from data centers to TikTok to Hollywood studios to the Oval Office itself. Tom Dotan dives deep into Ellison’s kingdom, starting on the island enclave of Lanai.
Federal judge allows Paramount-Warner merger to move forward
A federal judge in Oakland has approved a settlement that allows Paramount Skydance Chief Executive David Ellison to finalize his $111 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery. Ellison is aiming
Paramount streaming chief exits ahead of Warner Bros. Discovery merger
Paramount Skydance's streaming head exits ahead of the WBD merger. She told staff CEO David Ellison was "optimizing for HBO stability."
John Oliver Mocks Paramount Boss David Ellison and His 'Business Daddy' Larry
John Oliver joked about David Ellison's potential control of HBO.
Donald Trump Wants a Vance-Rubio Ticket in 2028, Says Ari Emanuel
Emanuel also believes David Ellison’s doing right by an independent press.
AG Rob Bonta reaches settlement with Paramount/Skydance’s David Ellison over entertainment mega-merger with Warner Bros.
After clearing a state antitrust lawsuit with minor concessions, David Ellison pledges to keep the combined media empire in LA. By Sarah Lin Major California AG Rob Bonta settled an antitrust lawsuit against Paramount and Warner Bros., securing commitments from David Ellison to keep operations in Los Angeles.
David Ellison: Me, Move? I Love L.A.
After telling top lieutenants he was serious about relocating Paramount from its century-old home if the states' lawsuit proceed, the mogul has now changed tune.
John Oliver Calls Out "Soon-To-Be Business Daddy" David Ellison & Throws Stephen Colbert Under The Bus
John Oliver took a dig at "soon-to-be business daddy" David Ellison on the latest episode of Last Week Tonight.
Read Paramount CEO David Ellison's memo after settling WBD lawsuit
Paramount Skydance's CEO confirmed to employees that the company had settled the lawsuits that were holding up its deal to buy Warner Bros. Discovery.
Paramount to Resolve Antitrust Lawsuit, Clearing the Way for Warner Bros. Acquisition
The deal would remove the last significant hurdle the media mogul David Ellison faced to create a news and entertainment empire, home to movie studios, HBO, CBS and CNN.
John Oliver Calls Out ‘Soon-to-Be Business Daddy’ David Ellison for Having a ‘Literal Business Daddy’
John Oliver pokes fun at his "Soon-to-be business daddy" for having a "literal business daddy" in Sunday's "Last Week Tonight"
John Oliver Calls Out 'Soon-to-Be Business Daddy' David Ellison for Having a 'Literal Business Daddy'
John Oliver pokes fun at his "Soon-to-be business daddy" for having a "literal business daddy" in Sunday's "Last Week Tonight"
John Oliver Calls Out ‘Soon-to-Be Business Daddy’ David Ellison for Having a ‘Literal Business Daddy’
John Oliver pokes fun at his "Soon-to-be business daddy" for having a "literal business daddy" in Sunday's "Last Week Tonight"
John Oliver mocks 'soon-to-be business daddy' David Ellison
"My soon-to-be business daddy has a literal business daddy..."
John Oliver Takes Jab at “Soon-to-Be Business Daddy” David Ellison on ‘Last Week Tonight’
During a segment on UnitedHealthCare's history of denying claims, Oliver said: "Having access to wealthy parents just cannot be the system to get badly needed healthcare, even if it is apparently the ...
John Oliver Takes Jab at David Ellison on 'Last Week Tonight'
During a segment on UnitedHealthCare's history of denying claims, Oliver said: "Having access to wealthy parents just cannot be the system to get badly needed healthcare, even if it is apparently the system that lets you be in charge of HBO."
John Oliver Takes Swipe at David Ellison and His ‘Business Daddy’ Larry Ellison on ‘Last Week Tonight’
When we last saw John Oliver behind the desk of “Last Week Tonight,” he was mocking Trump for sacrificing a number of members of his senior staff on a decoy plane amidst his peculiar catering truck es...
John Oliver Takes Swipe at David Ellison and His ‘Business Daddy’ Larry Ellison on ‘Last Week Tonight’
The HBO host cracked jokes at the expense of his probably future bosses on the Sept. 20 episode of “Last Week Tonight.”
Exclusive | The Super Donor Quarterbacking Michigan Sports: Larry Ellison’s Wife
University of Michigan graduate Jolin Ellison wields a deep pocket and a powerful voice directed at winning football and basketball games.
Video Lowe's CEO talks new business coalition
Lowe's CEO Marvin Ellison discusses a new coalition he helped launch to expand opportunities across corporate America.
Paramount's possible Hollywood exit puts Los Angeles on edge
LOS ANGELES — Paramount Skydance Chief Executive David Ellison faces a pivotal decision: Should he uproot his Hollywood studio — the birthplace of such film classics as "Sunset Boulevard," "The
Larry Ellison cancels plan to sell Oracle stock
Sept 12 (Reuters) - Oracle Executive Chairman Larry Ellison has canceled his plan to sell 50 million shares of Oracle stock, the company said on Saturday.
BGCSCK names new CEO
Boys & Girls Clubs of South Central Kansas has named Kyle Ellison as its new chief executive officer, effective Sept. 1. Ellison previously served as interim CEO and chief operating
Banner flies over Paramount Studios calling CEO David Ellison ‘Trump’s b----’
Paramount’s attempted purchase of Warner Bros. Discovery has recently thrust Ellison into the spotlight.
Banner flies over Paramount Studios calling CEO David Ellison ‘Trump’s ‘b----’
Amid furor over Paramount’s attempted acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery, a plane flew a banner over Paramount Studios in Los Angeles referring to CEO David Ellison as ‘Trump’s b----.’
House committee subpoenas Oracle’s Ellison about costly veterans health records project
Lawmakers in both parties are fed up with the tech firm’s handling of the decadelong effort to update VA medical files.
AG Ellison clears Sanford Health-North Memorial merger after oversight agreement
Minnesota will allow Sanford Health’s merger with North Memorial to move forward after they agreed to a 10-year oversight agreement, Attorney General Keith Ellison announced Friday morning.
Opinion: Men's health: Prevention starts with knowing your numbers
Making time for regular checkups and preventive care is essential to staying healthy and active for years to come.
Proposed Paramount-Warner Bros. merger threatens 4,500 Los Angeles County entertainment jobs
Local officials and labor leaders warn that proposed studio consolidation could wipe out billions in business revenue and devastate local vendors. By A new economic report warns the proposed Paramount-Warner Bros. Discovery merger puts 4,500 direct Los Angeles County jobs and billions in revenue at risk.
'I'm not ashamed' - Ellison on mental health and playing at 47
Striker Kevin Ellison, who once signed for Premier League Leicester City, opens up about playing at 47 - and why it's important to talk about mental health.
FA Cup: Kevin Ellison on mental health and still playing at 47
Striker Kevin Ellison, who once signed for Premier League Leicester City, opens up about playing at 47 - and why it's important to talk about mental health.
Minnesota AG sues Texas governor to compel extradition of ICE agent
“Christian Castro is not above the law and Greg Abbott isn’t either,” Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison said.
David Ellison is best argument to block Paramount-Warner Bros. deal
Paramount Skydance Chief Executive David Ellison faces an antitrust lawsuit over his proposed purchase of Warner Bros. Discovery. He recently threatened to move Paramount out of California if the suit is not settled.
In Paramount merger, law and politics collide
David Ellison is threatening to pull Paramount out of Hollywood if the state continues its lawsuit against his merger. Is that a real threat?
Republican senators file amendment to stop college sports bill from overriding state women's sports laws
Republican senators filed an amendment to ensure the Protect College Sports Act cannot preempt state laws banning biological males from women's sports.
Paramount CEO David Ellison: The critics are wrong about my politics
Paramount CEO David Ellison: The critics are wrong about my politics. The issue is whether I can be trusted as a steward of CNN.
Paramount CEO says politics fueling Warner Bros. merger battle
In a combative op-ed published in The New York Times, David Ellison argued that 'the issue is whether I can be trusted as a steward of Warner's CNN. There has been speculation about my politics, my loyalties, my intentions.'
Paramount CEO says politics fueling Warner Bros. merger battle
Paramount CEO David Ellison said Tuesday that the legal battle over his proposed multibillion-dollar takeover of Warner Bros. Discovery was fueled by politics rather than concerns over market share.
Paramount's David Ellison says critics don't get his politics
In an op-ed, Ellison tries to allay worries that he can be trusted to run CNN
Paramount's David Ellison downplays politics after courting Trump
David Ellison courted Trump when seeking approval for his WBD deal. He argues in a new op-ed that his politics are "just like most Americans."
David Ellison says court fight over Warner Bros. is about his politics, CNN
The Paramount Skydance CEO defended his deal to buy Warner Bros. Discovery and said he’s voted for Democrats and Republicans and held liberal and conservative values.
Opinion | David Ellison: In Defense of the Paramount-Warner Deal
The issue is whether I can be trusted as a steward of CNN
#paramount #streaming #entertainment
Paramount Skydance isn't waiting around for its planned merger with Warner Bros. Discovery to bolster its flagship streaming service. Paramount's streaming leaders have told employees that they're planning major upgrades to Paramount+ in the coming weeks. An internal presentation, which was unveiled during a streaming town hall this week and viewed by Business Insider, shows "Product Priority Highlights" for Paramount's streaming business this quarter. These initiatives are part of Paramount CEO David Ellison's plan to improve the tech of a 114-year-old media company that trails Netflix, Amazon Prime Video, and Disney in streaming subscribers. Buying WBD would help Paramount catch up quickly and give it over 200 million streaming customers, the company has said. Read more about Paramount’s streaming projects on Business Insider: https://lnkd.in/eKfn9wyH (Credit: Getty Images) #paramount #streaming #entertainment
MAGA media merger will gut entertainment
Larry and David Ellison's political ambitions will suck the joy out of TV and movies
Paramount/Warner Bros. merger will make media more MAGA
Larry and David Ellison's political ambitions will suck the joy out of TV and movies
As AI spending surges, return-on-investment questions mount
The rapid expansion of artificial intelligence is creating major opportunities while also exposing companies to significant financial risks, The New York Times reports. Larry Ellison and his son are using Oracle-generated wealth to expand into media, with control of Paramount and a potential takeover bid for Warner Bros. Discovery. Meanwhile, Oracle is facing financial pressure […]
The States Try to Topple WarnerMount…Thus Begins the Local Antitrust Era
(Welcome to the “Most Important Story of the Week”, my bi-weekly strategy column analyzing the most important (but often not buzziest) news story of the last two weeks. I’m the Entertainment Strategy Guy, a former streaming executive who now analyzes business strategy in the entertainment industry. Please subscribe.) Well, it looks like it’s time for another strategy column. Can I finally avoid writing about M&A? No, it seems I cannot. Admittedly, I’m a week early with this column, since I usually put it out every other week. But this news couldn’t wait. This will make three “Most Important Stories” in a row with a merger or acquisition as its centerpiece. First, Roku-Fox (an acquisition), then Comcast-NBCUniversal (a divestment!), and now the State AGs and the WGA’s lawsuits against Paramount’s pursuit of Warner Bros. Discovery (antitrust). M&A is usually the “most important” topic any given week, simply because a giant company merging or breaking up (or preventing those outcomes) can have the biggest impact on the streaming board. If you think about these companies as players in a game, changing the number of players is one of the biggest changes you can make. I shouldn’t really complain, either, since this lawsuit is very good news for customers and suppliers (econ speak for talent, workers and indie studios in Hollywood). So let me answer some questions about this potential trial, along with (shudder) making some heavily caveated predictions. I’ll also look at whether Hollywood must consolidate, whether or not the states can win, trouble at X-Box, Netflix’s YouTube binge, and more. Plus, I have five images that visualize this merger and the harm, including three brand new data looks you’ve never seen before. Subscribe Most Important Story of the Week - Can The States and the WGA Stop Hollywood’s Consolidation (Crisis)? If every other newsletter and news outlet is writing about the same story, I try to avoid writing about it as well, but I can’t ignore a story this consequential. The story of the last year was the fate of Warner Bros. Discovery, and this development potentially extends that saga into 2027. As I tried to figure out my angle, I realized, like my last column, I’m again faced with a series of questions. These questions, though, are much more forward-looking. Will the states win? Will the WGA win? If so, what happens to Warner Bros. Discovery? Either way, will this chill the market for future mergers? So you know what that means: predictions. About the future, no less, the hardest thing to predict.1 Just remember: nothing here comes with a guarantee. And the more confident someone is in their predictions, the less you should trust them. This situation is incredibly fluid, nuanced, uncertain and tenuous. So let’s try to explain what may happen. Question: Why File this Lawsuit? I’ll admit, a few months back, I was fairly pessimistic about the fate of this lawsuit. Rumors had started bubbling up that the state Attorneys General (in particular California) wanted to settle with either some minor divestments (usually CNN) or behavioral remedies. And that tracked for me: the states usually settle lawsuits, like the recent John Deere right-to-repair suit. Yet, they plan to fight this. (As they did the LiveNation-Ticketmaster monopolization trial and the Nexstar-Tegna merger.) Honestly, that also makes a ton of sense. Frankly, this move is just good politics for these State AGs. Most are still running for higher and higher office in blue states—some folks have emphasized that only Democratic AGs joined this suit, but given the Ellison/Trump ties, and fears of retribution, that tracks—and a high profile case like this will help them move up the electoral ladder, especially since Paramount and its leadership (the Ellisons, father and heir) have sided with the other side of the political aisle. That makes them unsympathetic to Democratic voters and Hollywood workers in particular. Why did this lawsuit happen? In addition to the very real concerns about industry consolidation, this is why. That said, I don’t think we would have seen this lawsuit for Netflix and Warner Bros., simply because they’re more sympathetic and aligned with Democrats. But those consolidation concerns are real. The “town”—meaning Hollywood and such—really is seeing the damage of mergers on this industry. That’s why the WGA also filed its own lawsuit in defense of workers as well. (Wildcard: What about Europe? Will they try to stop the deal, too? There have been some rumors out of the UK they may try to fight the deal, and UK enforcers just stopped a Getty Images-Shutterstock tie up, so there is precedence. This argument could go either way, though. On one hand, the EU doesn’t need to step in, cause they states are handling it. On the other hand, this could make the EU’s case easier. Just imagine if both sides coordinated. I’ll simply say, “We’ll see!”) Question: Will The State AGs or the WGA Win? Can the state AGs play David to Paramount-Skydance’s Goliath here? That’s really the whole thing, isn’t it? If you know this result, you could make a lot of money. When things are uncertain, it’s tempting to shrug and say, “Eh” meaning it’s a 50/50 proposition. I wouldn’t, though. When in doubt, you should expect that the merging parties succeed. AT&T did successfully buy Warner Bros., after all, and Disney bought Fox without any challenges. Many judges are extremely sympathetic to mergers, and I’d bet the state AGs get a judge who will allow the merger. (Even Obama-appointed judges often allow mergers.) As I understand it, we’ll see two main attacks. First, theatrical films. The AGs are arguing that, when it comes to share of box office and the number of both “wide releases” and blockbuster (or “tentpole”) films, the merging parties will have over 27% market share. Now, the Supreme Court once ruled from on high that any merger that exceeds 30% is presumptively illegal, but that’s guidance, not an ironclad bar. Still, the states will have to argue that this is close to having too much power, and with that power, this will likely further worsen the theater/studio splits in particular. Indeed, as Matthew Stoller pointed out, “just five studios are responsible for 95% of all blockbusters; if this merger goes through, then Paramount and Disney will control 60% of that.” So yes, movie studios will be very concentrated after this merger. Want me to visualize some of that? Well, here’s the share of films that grossed over $200 million at the domestic box office since 2022. (Note: this isn’t all films released in over 3,000 screens, but it is a good look at market power.) First, here are the 43 films by studio: Notice all the blue (Disney), orange (Universal), and purple (Warner Bros)? Yeah, those studios are powerful, and this combines Paramount with one of them. Here’s the look by studio and share of the films that grossed over $200 million: Now, if you look at that and also think, “Huh, should we break up Disney?” I’m with you. I’ve seen some folks poo-poo this idea that this is a real category, but it is! For an upcoming article, I’ve been pulling data on the share of top 100 films at the box office as a share of total box office, and it’s massive. Here’s the chart: (This analysis looks at The-Number’s top 100 films and total domestic box office each year.) To be clear, tentpoles make up 80.7% of the box office each year, so I do think it’s a genuine market. (To be clear, films grossing over $50 million make up 80% of the domestic box office, and films grossing over $100 million make up 64.1%.) I mean, the top 100 films at the box office make up 95% of each year’s grosses. Worse, the combined studios will likely cut output to flex that market power. Everyone can just look at what happened to Disney and Fox to see the precedent. (With fewer films, the remaining theaters have to give more for those few films that remain.) Here’s an image I’ve used a lot, the share of wide-release films from Disney and Fox over time: The AGs will also argue that this consolidation will also impact the cable industry. In this case, the consolidation is actually worse, but that environment is…complicated. Paramount will argue that the cable industry is shrinking. That said, predictions that cable will “go to zero” also don’t look very well supported by the data, as the declines are shrinking, meaning “cable” or “vMVPDs” will likely stabilize at some point. Can the state Attorneys General win on those two main arguments? I honestly don’t know. Again, I’d bet no, since history in general supports that, but it depends on the judge/jury and how they interpret the arguments. Notably, Paramount won’t face accusations about monopoly power in other areas, like streaming, news, sports rights, or vertical integration. I tend to disagree with leaving out sports rights, but I also see the appeal for a simpler case. The states also aren’t really pushing novel theories about labor harm either, which should help. (By the way, Sean McNulty at The Ankler wrote a great run through of potential options, and Capitol Forum also wrote a great paper on theatrical consolidation. Both these pieces predated the lawsuit. Matthew Stoller is also out with his analysis of the pros and cons of the case too.) In some ways, the WGA’s case is even stronger. Quoting Sean McNulty’s summary: “The WGA is citing WARNAMOUNT as crossing a 30% market share in multiple sectors, a number that the Supreme Court has precedent for deeming “presumptively anticompetitive” in a market. According to the WGA numbers, WARNAMOUNT would have represented: - 35% of film writing jobs between 2021 and 2024 - 36% of TV writing projects between 2022 and 2025 - 38% of overall deals between 2021 and 2024” Notably, antitrust enforcers did win recently in the Penguin-Simon & Schuster merger by focusing on labor impact, so don’t count this thinking out. (Wildcard: Will the states try to get a jury trial? Most likely no, they’ll let a judge handle it. If I’m them, though, I’d try to put this in front of a jury. Juries tend to understand monopoly power in a more realistic way than judges faced with legions of economists.) Question: What if They Win? What if They Lose?
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